Showing posts with label Call to action. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Call to action. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Five years and counting.

As of September 1, 2008 I have now been working on this project for over five years. Time flies when you're having fun. We have much work to do to build this application. Unfortunately with the publication of the Draft Specification, the type of work that needs to be done has changed. The heavy lifting needs to begin and none of this will happen unless we begin the process of generating revenues and acquiring the resources to make this application real.

I have recently focused on four Canadian producers in an attempt to make the case that these companies are failing. Their failure is also documented in this Statistics Canada report which states the oil and gas industry is the worst performing industry in Canada. Not housing or auto's, oil and gas.

Although receipts for energy production are higher, the countries overall production is down. Companies have realized commodity prices that are far in excess of their "plans". Yet even with the record prices these companies report losses, declining reserves and production, increased debt, cost overruns and project schedules that are constantly slipping. To expect more from these companies will only lead to disappointment.

The time to do something about this is now. I don't know if the Draft Specification is the solution to these problems. I only know that on paper they work, and that is the proof that is necessary to show that the ideas are workable. I know that with the input of the users, the People, Ideas & Objects application will address the issues and opportunities that the People within the industry are faced with.

What we learned in the preliminary research report was that developments in science lead to knew innovations which lead to new developments in science and so on. This is the road that needs to be taken in order for the industry to address the declining reserves and production. The bureaucracies were built to deal with the cheap energy era, we need new organizations to take us to the next level.

This project has to find new sources of money and leadership to fill-in the many voids of the overall vision. If you know of someone who could help to financially support this project please do what you can to bring their attention to this. Ninety-five percent of the ownership of the oil and gas industry is held by individuals. Individuals who are the investors, users and developers of the People, Ideas & Object application. Join me here and lets build this software.

The PayPal button on this website will gladly take donations that can further us along in the road we are headed. Even if you can only contribute $10.00 we will be that much further ahead.

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Wednesday, August 06, 2008

That's 3.7 million man years per day, lost.

In the book "Profit from the Peak" it was noted that each barrel of oil is leveraged to 18,000 man hours of equivalent labor. This is intuitively logical to most energy consumers. Based on Friday's New York Times, the one year 600,000 barrel per day production loss by the International Oil Companies (IOC's) translates into almost 3.7 million man years of work / day. That is each and every day from now on.

It's time to make this software development project real.
Quoting Professor Murray Rothbard’s (1985, p. 283) words:
“Entrepreneurial ideas without money are mere parlor games until the money is obtained and committed to the projects.”
It is therefore time to stop playing parlor games and get down to the job of building this software development project. If the loss of 3.7 million man years per day doesn't quantify the size of this problem nothing else will.

Therefore I am asking everyone and anyone who has access to a budget, investor, oil and gas firm, energy consumer or friend. And would like to donate towards developing this project. Please click on the newly installed PayPal button to make a donation to this worthwhile project. The service accepts all major credit cards and since I will be declaring these donations as revenue, you will be able to deduct the donation from your taxes.

Most of all, thank you, and join me here.

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Saturday, August 02, 2008

Exxon, Shell, Apache...

The issue of declining production has struck the majority of producers in the oil and gas industry. The New York Times suggests total production declines may reach over 600,000 boe / day. Exxon, Shell and Apache, just as many others have reported, are showing a trend that supports the hypothesis of this blog's preliminary research report. That being;

  • The corporate hierarchical organizational structure is an impediment to progress and most particularly innovation.
  • Determine if the industry standard Joint Operating Committee, modified with today's information technologies, provides an oil and gas concern with the opportunity for advanced innovativeness.
Producers have also been spending record amounts on capital projects. Much of this increased funding is diluted by the costs associated with too-much-money chasing too-few-skills. Nonetheless producers are involved in a record number of projects. How often in life has doing more of the same; worked to mitigate fundamental changes in an industry?

Within the interpretation section of the preliminary report I suggested;
It is suggested in this research that the speed that a bureaucracy can adapt and change is inadequate for the operational demands of a future oil and gas operation. Innovation within the oil and gas industry will be required in order to keep up with the natural and increasing rate of decline in production. Where the sciences of geology and applied sciences of engineering, which cover a broad range, will need to progress substantially in the next 10 years in order to achieve the demand requirements of the North American energy consumers. p. 71
This claim of mine seems to have a tenuous hold on the legitimacy of me asserting my hypothesis is correct. What evidence is there that the dynamics of the underlying earth science and engineering disciplines have expanded to a higher level of understanding? A level of understanding that a bureaucracy, however large, is unable to comprehend or implement.

Possibly one of the most appropriate statements that has developed in 2008 is "the easy oil is gone". Captures the entire situation very well in my opinion. I'll be the first to agree that the contents of the preliminary research report were only extensions of my "sensing" that the demands of the business were accelerating beyond the bureaucracies capabilities. After 30 years in the business it was generally known that things were getting tougher, much tougher.

And not to discount the research that was done in the preliminary report. That of Professor Giovanni Dosi clearly defining what innovation is and what is necessary to be innovative. Or Professor Anthony Giddens Structuration Theory. A theory that suggests People, Society and Organizations move in lockstep, or failure will occur. I think we clearly see the current demands of society and people being ignored by organizations. Although no failure has occurred, one does not have to look too far. And Professor Wanda Orlikowski's Model of Structuration which suggests technology is a defining and reinforcing component of society. A model in which I coined the phrase "SAP is the bureaucracy".

The subsequent discovery of Professor Richard Langlois research on Transaction Cost Economics, The Boundaries of the Firm, and Market definitions. Dare I forget McKinsey Consulting's grounding of these theories in the current business environment. That the hypothesis and conclusions are based on this academic foundation prove that the Joint Operating Committee is the key organizational construct of the innovative oil and gas producer. At least that is what is proven on paper. As we know the ability to subject a field of study to a paper document provides proof of the concepts contained within the written word. People are still trying to test the theories of Albert Einstien's, theories that he published in the very early 1900's.

Professor Thomas Davenport has also contributed to this research. His blog (his feed ) is frequently highlighted for some of the current thinking he has in business today. In the preliminary report I quoted him from "Strategy and Structure of Firms in the Attention Economy" stating;
Strategy and structure are mental constructs, important not in themselves, but for their impact on people in the organization. Strategy and Structure are also the vehicles for focusing attention. p. 51
But what tangible proof is there that these hypothesis, conclusions, research and concepts are valid? I sarcastically suggest two alternatives;
  1. We continue the debate of these "theories" with industry for another five years.
  2. We begin building the systems based on these concepts.
I naturally conclude that point two is the choice I would recommend. Producers are being allocated the financial resources to fuel the innovation that commodity markets are demanding. Since these financial resource's are being distributed to managements pockets, I ask what's the risk?

Still not satisfied? I suggest that you select the "Call-to-Action" label of the blog to review the 45 posts that provide even more grounding for these theories validity. Or, review the Draft Specification for this software development and see how fundamentally different and capable the JOC is to enabling innovation in the oil and gas industry. I have also posted the Preliminary Research Report on Innovation Within Oil and Gas in three knol pages here, here and here.(Editing not complete.)

Lastly, please join me here.

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Thursday, July 17, 2008

Nexen reports it's losing its mind.

Reading Nexen's second quarter financial results press release; leaves one with the feeling all is well "Nexen reports solid second quarter financial results". Yet Bloomberg reports a rather poor performance, and the stock is down over 10%. How's this? Bloomberg in their opening paragraph.

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Nexen Inc., the Canadian producer that gets most of its output from oil fields, said second- quarter profit rose 3.3 percent as stock-based compensation costs blunted higher crude prices.
Makes it very clear that the management were celebrating the latest round of stock based compensation. Another $300 million for the piggies, and $380 million for the shareholders. That seems fair doesn't it? If these little piggies can't boost their profits by more then 3.3 percent at a time when oil prices are up, then they never will. All the upside from the increase in oil prices is clearly deemed as the valuation of further stock based compensation. I suggest the shareholders show them the door.

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Monday, July 07, 2008

Tailor's to the Emperor

I have not been kind to the Emperor's (the oil and gas companies) in this high energy price era. I more or less follow the money in situations like these. And with the energy companies receiving 100% of the revenues from oil and gas, they are the ones that should have done something about it. With the industry leadership meeting in Spain last week, unaware of how this problem came about, I am reluctant to give them any slack at this point. However, in this entry I will provide the energy companies with a temporary benefit of the doubt, and focus on the SAP and Oracle applications, and more broadly the technology community.

To call these Information Technology companies the designers and tailors of the Emperors new clothes makes for the perfect analogy. Particularly SAP and Oracle who command such fees and mind share in the oil and gas market. These firms are complicit in providing systems that are woefully inadequate for the innovative oil and gas producer.

Being the "big" suppliers of systems to oil and gas does not provide their firms with an excuse to sell systems that are inadequate and inappropriate for the market. No one was ever was fired for recommending these big applications, does not give SAP and Oracle a license to sell something that doesn't fit. It is my opinion that you should at least try to understand the market you are selling to.

If the producers where provided with systems that supported the Joint Operating Committee and innovation in general, would the firms have been able to explore and maintain production for the markets demands? Instead they have provided systems that identify, support and entrench the bureaucracy.

There has been a technological revolution in the past 5 years. Has any of these new technologies been integrated into the oil and gas firms? Not that I am aware. It's Stampede week here in Calgary and I can assure you that the marketing arm of these "suppliers" have a good understanding of where their next meal is coming from. Role in another server or two and database licenses for all.

Witnessing this festival of greed during Stampede makes me think I am the only one out of step. Don't solve problems, just sell.

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Friday, June 20, 2008

Why the companies.

In my last post I pointed the accusatory finger for this energy problem, at the oil and gas companies, particularly the majors. The first aspect of the accusation is that they knew, as I had pointed out, that their organizational constraints would limit their level of activity far below the market demands. This may seem a rather harsh point of view, which they should be given the benefit of the doubt about their knowing or not knowing. It was clear to many that this situation was inevitable, I was providing a solution, not identifying the problem.

The management of the companies knowing the situation would become as difficult as it is, undertook to do nothing. They were making money and would continue to do so when the prices went up. This lack of motivation to do anything was the choice of these managers. Show me a major producer that has earned any increase in their profits other then from higher prices.

Educating the public. Even today companies and their industry representatives claim to have no idea why prices are so high. What business are they in, do they mis-understand their markets so fundamentally? What could have been done in the past five years to mitigate the problems we face today? If consumers were given the real facts, would they have gone out to purchase the SUV they feel they are now stuck with? The duck and run from the truth policies of these organizations have allowed John Q. Public to walk blindly into the biggest issue ever facing mankind. The motivation to dip into the trough is strong with these managers.

In September 2003 I published a proposal to the industry to conduct the research of determining if the JOC was the key organizational construct. Given the opportunity to deal with this constructively, the industry represented by Petro-Canada, Encana, CNRL, Talisman and many others, chose to hire Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) to research the idea that I proposed! Shows you the scope of what these people are capable of. And I was not dealing with some low level manager; I was speaking with CEO's of these firms. Luckily for me I was able to complete the research ahead of CERA. In publishing the May 2004 report the only question that was asked was who paid for the research? Well I did, and now I own it lock, stock and barrel.

It's been this last point that really bothers the companies. They have no desire to ever let anyone derive any value from Intellectual Property. It is since this time I have been forced to find employment in other industries. So here the industry was presented with a workable idea that made more sense then anything they had read before. (My words). And they hush it up and try to kill it. Each of these companies struggles with the inability of SAP to do any after sales service, why would they refuse any new idea? And that is the last point that these organizations are culpable for, their efforts to kill this opportunity to solve this problem before it affected the consumers.

These companies are more or less suffering from a grid-lock organization that long ago failed. Recall in 2007 even Exxon lost 10% of their production base after spending an additional $25 + billion in capital. These dinosaurs will never be able to keep up with the decline in their production base and are therefore slowly rapidly dying. So who else, other then the consumers are suffering as a result of the manager’s lack of accountability and motivation? Clearly the shareholders are at a sizable risk as they watch the managers slowly run the company into the ground.

I am calling on those investors to fund the developments of this software development project. A means for which the shareholders could be provided with the alternate organizational systems enabling them to manage their assets. The current oil company managers know that in today's business environment you must have the electronic systems in place first, or you will be relegated to manual systems to run your operation. The managers have their investors over a barrel.

How much longer will these managers be left in control will be determined by the investor class. An investor class that happens to be comprised mostly of John and Jane Q. Public, the people that are now facing the energy problem. What is needed is for them to act as I see no other alternative.


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Sunday, June 15, 2008

Very bad news.

I believe that the solution to the current energy difficulties is to eliminate the bureaucracy and replace it through the more natural form of organization, the Joint Operating Committee. Supporting that organization with these future software developments, will enable the markets to form and begin the process of eliminating the detrimental effects these bureaucracies have brought to our door.

I have fought with everything I have to make this situation as painless as possible. With $135.00 oil being a reflection of how I have failed to convince these bureaucracies to move to this alternative vision. Let me make it absolutely clear, these bureaucracies fully understood and agreed to the underlying hypothesis in my thesis. I originally floated this idea in September 2003 and published the full report in May 2004. What they have done since that point in time proves that they are incapable of acting in a responsible manner towards the energy demands of consumers.

The bad news that I feel is that the time has come where the real pain will soon begin. If the Saudi people have, as they announced this weekend, increased their production by a half million barrels, they have proven to me that they have done everything that they could or can. When the accusatory finger is pointed as to who's fault this is, I can assure everyone no one in the Middle East is to blame, the companies are.

The Saudi increase only shows their concern for the market. And I would have to state their concern is as genuine as mine. The system of how energy delivery in what we call the western world has reached a critical point where there is nothing left to give. A slight panic by drivers in North America will probably lead to excessive demand of the system that can not be addressed by the refiners, their inventories or the level of world oil production. This is a critical breaking point where the fallout will be permanent, and all the kings horses, and all the kings men, will never be able to put it back together again.

There is some difficulty ahead. If we are smart we would implement a consumer oriented rationing of gasoline. The primary priority should be to keep the transportation system operational at full capacity. I think a rationing is more then possible and will mitigate the disaster this may well become. The other task is the need for this software development, and the People who work in oil and gas today, get behind the re-organization of the energy industry to enable the production volumes that these economies need to function.

I believe that given the situation we have today, the resolve of the People in the next 5 - 10 years can restore the energy production our economies need and we can look back at this failure of the bureaucracies as one of the darkest periods of our civilization.

Today's problems will not be solved by today's thinking. Please, join me here, and pray for peace.


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Sunday, May 25, 2008

Constrained Organizations

In a follow up post to the "Unconstrained Prices", I thought it might be a good time to reiterate the reasons that I see for the ever escalating oil and gas prices. Energy production is driven by the earth science and engineering disciplines. As one would expect, over a given period of time the science and engineering will be subject to new discoveries and findings, leading to further enhancements of the underlying sciences. Innovation plays a key role here in that the new sciences bring about new innovative uses, and in turn, lead to new science. This is the key area of long term value add in the oil and gas industry. A producer that is able to apply the science and ideas to the problem at hand will, over time, increase their production and reserves. I'd like to call this the "Capabilities Approach" to the oil and gas industry.


If we reduce the competitive nature of the industry down to this Capabilities Approach. We see the interactions and understanding of the industry as it developed over the past 100 years. Someone figures out how to drill deeper, then the subsequent wells expose more oil bearing formations and hence more opportunities for increased oil or gas production. As time has passed the more lucrative and "big" ideas have been applied in broader areas, and for longer periods of time.

As we have learned from Stanford Professor Paul Romer's new growth theory, "more" ideas are needed to progress forward from the current base of understanding. The supply / demand for these ideas is not linear, but logarithmic, and occur at a much faster pace through their life cycle. Enter the classic bureaucracy and realize its efficiencies are based on expansion of the underlying activity (growth) and continuous process improvement. Change, and particularly scientific and engineering change, are the hierarchy's deficiency. What we need is a new form of organizational structure that will support and enable the industry to compete in this dynamically changing and high demand marketplace. Until such time as we can change the performance dynamics of the organizational form for the oil and gas industry, prices of commodities will continue to rise.

It is these comments and ideas that I have asserted in this blog for the past few years. They are a direct result of my thesis that provides evidence that the Joint Operating Committee is the method of organization of the innovative energy producer. We need to start building the software that I have specified in the 11 module People, Ideas & Objects application and unleash the potential of the sciences for the betterment of society. I find these ideas are consistent with many of the industries leadership. The International Energy Agency recently made some comments that reflect these concerns.

The IEA states that by 2015 there will be a shortfall of 12.5 million boe / day.

"Future crude supplies could be far tighter than previously thought."

"Reflects an increasing fear within the IEA and elsewhere that oil producing regions aren't on track to meet future needs."

"The oil investments required may be much much higher than what people assume."

My personal favorite;

"This is a dangerous situation."

"We are optimistic in terms of resource availability, but wary about whether the investments get made in the right places and at a pace that will bring on supply to meet demand."

Yet nothing is done by these bureaucracies. They know what the problem is, there is just no motivation for them to make the necessary changes. Record profits at Exxon Mobil mask the 10% production declines. We need to consider who's responsibility this problem is, as the companies are unwilling to do so. After all it is not they who will be suffering with energy shortages but society in general.

On the other hand, and what I truly do not understand is that the $135 prices are rewarding those that find and produce the energy. This is an entirely new dynamic for the industry, when will we see the companies that are able to outperform the current crop of producers? The answer to that question unfortunately is not soon. Until this software is built to organize the efforts of the industry, our choices are limited to the status quo or manual systems. Join me here.

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Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Thomas Davenport declares a revolution.

Documenting the differences between the old "Knowledge Management" and the current Enterprise 2.0 (E2.0) type of applications. (Which of course People, Ideas & Objects would be considered E2.0) You can access the article from here.

Hard to imagine that Thomas Davenport would say such things, but this is a must read article. His most important point is the reaction that is reflected in this quotation.

Certainly any form of “2.0” movement would require a distribution of power. I have no objections to other groups coming into power, but if I held any power I would not be ready to hand it over because of some new software becoming available. I suspect many senior executives will feel the same way. Most would probably like to get the best ideas of their employees, but they like their own ideas even better.

The powers that be in oil and gas, I can assure you, are reading from this script.

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Thursday, February 07, 2008

Chevron's Reserves

CNN reports that Chevron Texaco's 2007 reserve replacement ratio was only 15% of production. This in spite of $12.2 billion in capital expenditures. Profits of $18.7 billion were attributed to higher prices.

I published my thesis in May 2004. It was based on the hypothesis that "The corporate hierarchical organizational structure is an impediment to progress and most particularly, innovation." and to "Determine if the Industry Standard Joint Operating Committee, modified with today’s information technologies, provides an oil and gas concern with the opportunity for advanced innovative-ness.” Based on the Chevron, BP, Shell and Exxon 2007 annual reports, I believe this hypothesis has now been proven correct. And the industry business model is fundamentally flawed and terminal.

For the past two years I have been writing about these theories and asking "what if" the industry did move toward using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct? And "how" would these changes affect the industry. From this analysis I have been able to publish the modular breakdown of the People's, Ideas & Objects application, and what is necessary to make this application function for the oil and gas industry.

Amongst the most important needs is the financial resources of the industry to support the users and developers of this application. If now is not the time, when? I would like to think that the work that I did over the past 4 years provides some value for the industry. Particularly from the point of view of giving them a head start on solving their reserve replacement ratios.

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Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Commercialization 101

Throughout the past three and a half years, the development of the theories surrounding the Joint Operating Committee as key organizational construct, have been developed based on my efforts and resources. To commercialize the development of this software has always been with two key assumptions. Users as principle consumers of the software would always directly and indirectly control the direction and quality of the software. The second assumption was that industry would financially support the development and ongoing needs of the software.

This time has now arrived and it is therefore necessary for industry to begin their involvement with resource commitments to this project. I have documented several dozen calls-to-action that show this type of development will become the mainstream business model. These calls have also included the dire warnings of our energy future from the National Petroleum Council and International Energy Agency.

I am therefore canvassing the producers in the Calgary, Texas and Aberdeen areas for sponsorship of this software development project that I call "People, Ideas & Objects". Sponsorship is open to any company willing to pay the fee of $10,000.00. These funds will go toward the development as I have described in this blog. Those companies that choose not to participate will not have a seat at the table and will be unable to influence the direction of the software, or use it. The past year has seen my time in terms of completing this work evaporate from the scope of this challenge. Any company not participating at this critical sponsorship stage will have difficulty in garnering the future attention of this community.

Contacting me at my email address will commence the process of registering your firm in the sponsorship round. The sponsorship round ends January 15, 2008.

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Peak Oil goes mainstream.

As we move closer to higher then $100 oil, many of the organizations that have looked down upon the peak oil theorists, have revised their opinions on the pending energy problem. The Wall Street Journal and IEA are both noting that things have not gone as they should. Life has a remarkably effective way of dealing with plans made by humans. The first article is written by Dave Cohen at ASPO and discusses the IEA's recent comments.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency has issued its World Energy Outlook 2007 — China and India Insights. The release provoked the usual firestorm of hand wringing and protest. "I am sorry to say this, but we are headed toward really bad days," IEA chief economist Fatih Birol told Time Magazine this week. "Lots of targets have been set but very little has been done. There is a lot of talk and no action." Lest the peak oil people feel justified by the bad news, Birol made sure to divorce the IEA's position from any possible connection with peak oil (see David Strahan's Supply Crunch is not Peak Oil — IEA, November 7th, 2007). Oh my! Rather than explain the intricacies of everyone's position here, let's talk about the human love affair with cars as a way of understanding the IEA's annual report.
The second article of note comes from Tom Whipple of ASPO and noted in the Energy Bulletin in which he comments about the Wall Street Journal.
This make-believe world finally came crashing down on Monday when the Wall Street Journal published a front-page story admitting there was a big, big problem with oil production just ahead. Now the flagship of economic journalism does not come to such a decision lightly. To admit that you have been dead wrong in ignoring the most important economic issue the world is likely to face in the next century certainly strains your journalistic credibility.
Now lets be clear, the current situation within the energy markets was to have never appeared. Why, because they had the excellent research from Cambridge Energy Research Associates to assure them there would be an unprecedented increase in the energy industries production volume. The head of that soon to be defunct organization is none other Dr. Daniel Yergin and his comments in the Washington Post two years ago. I'm still waiting to hear some clarification from Yergin, and at least an admission that he was wrong, dead wrong.

The situation should be clearly evident to anyone who has worked in oil and gas in the past 10 years. And have seen the increasing level of difficulty and risk in the business. I saw what was required, a much higher intensity of engineering and earth science effort / barrel of oil, could not and would not be resolved by the traditional hierarchy. It is too slow, and as I diagnosed then, too focused on the compliance and governance of the regulations of the business, and all but ignored the legal, financial, cultural and operational decision-making frameworks of the Joint Operating Committee.

It should also be clear that the competitive offerings to this software development proposal are also unaware of the JOC. SAP, Oracle and Qbyte don't recognize it. Therefore in order to change to systems, other then manual systems, an oil and gas producer needs to build software that defines and supports the organization, first. Otherwise they will remain organizationally constrained and will re-visit this situation same time next year. It's like the IEA says "Lots of targets have been set but very little has been done. There is a lot of talk and no action."

The oil and gas industry has to decide to fund these software developments in order to eliminate the hierarchy and bureaucracy and unleash the speed and innovativeness that can be captured and organized through the Joint Operating Committee. The logic for this is compellingly documented in this blog's 500,000+ words that extend and enhance my original thesis.

Ideas like how an enhanced division of labor will provide growth with the resources we have today. How the JOC is the natural form of organizations for oil and gas. How people use networks naturally to do their work. And finally the accountants capture the month-to-month changes in the voucher as a natural part of their work. Yet based on the over the top and violent response I have received from the bureaucracies, they will have none of it. For they see no issues whatsoever, business is good (with $100 oil) and they are not motivated to do anything about it.

So I continue on with my quest of how and what this software needs to make it real. The financial resources locked up in the bureaucracies, with no concern for what is happening just outside their office doors. Oh well, I'm sure the oil volumes won't decline too quickly, or maybe we'll have a recession, or maybe even Santa can take care of it.

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Friday, November 02, 2007

And so it continues.

Total Petroleum is in the news again regarding the probabilities the world might be able to produce 100m b/d. Recall I wrote about Total's revision to its future production increases were down 20% to 4%. And how that 1% increase was miraculously beyond the reach of what the company could attain. Today the CEO Christophe de Margerie was commenting on the International Energy Agency's report that expects 103m b/d in 2030. De Margerie states the possibility is an;

...“optimistic” scenario - meaning output was unlikely to reach that level. By implication the IEA’s ‘reference’ or business-as-usual scenario, in which output is forecast to soar to 116 mb/d in 2030, is even more far-fetched.
As CEO of one of the largest oil producers this is refreshing and candid honesty. The CEO goes on further to describe why he believes the world will not attain those production levels.
...that oil production was unlikely ever to reach that level not because of policy intervention, but due to a combination of geopolitics and geology.
and
De Margerie said that the quality of oilfields now being exploited was worsening, and that this would restrict the rate at which oil could be produced. “Definitely we have been - all of us - too optimistic about the geology, not in terms of reserves, but in terms of how to develop those reserves, how much time it takes, how much realistically do you need.” There had also been a false assumption that North Sea-style recovery factors could be achieved everywhere, said de Margerie: “Not true; it doesn’t work”.
and
Then came his own Rumsfeldian flourish: “But the fact that you don’t have the answer gives you the answer – ie. 100 [mb/d] is difficult because in the 100 you have already additional production in Iraq, you have additional production in Venezuela, you have additional production in Nigeria, you have additional production everywhere, and today we know those developments are not under way.”
An explicit and clear set of comments that reflect on the dire nature of the energy situation. The honesty is welcomed and is joined this week with two other notable comments. Sadad al Huseini, former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco says that up to 300 billion barrels of oil reserves of the worlds remaining 1,200 billion barrels is not there. Something that Matthew Simmons has been saying for many years, and Daniel Yergin has flatly denied on many occasions.

Lastly in an interview with James Smith, Chairman of Shell UK on Sky News. Smith made a statement that shows the way in which the energy problem may be solved.
In answering the question of activities in oil and gas being more expensive from Jeff Randall, James Smith says "so technology, partnerships and a resiliant balance sheet are going to be very important for the future"
Those that are interested are welcome to review this blogs archives and see how I think technology and partnerships (The Joint Operating Committee) can be employed innovatively in oil and gas.

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Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Innovation through Global Collaboration: A New Source of Competitive Advantage

August 14, 2007

Alan MacCormack, Harvard Business School

Theodore Forbath, Wipro Technologies

Peter Brooks, Wipro Technologies

Patrick Kalaher, Wipro Technologies

This software development projects purpose is to create a transaction supported collaborative environment. The first steps in building this were initiated last month with the decision to use "Google Apps for your Domain." For a small annual fee we provide the user with a comprehensive collaborative platform. Recently CapGemini has announced a deal where they provide the integration of users work environments from Microsoft products to Google's. I think, based on my understanding of collaboration, Google Apps most closely replicate the way that work gets done. I find their product fit and finish as solid as Apple's, the move to Google App's was completely painless and instantaneous.

Why is this product category so important and what is a "transaction supported collaborative environment"? The product category is important because the next level of intellectual and social interaction can be facilitated in the software. So how and who will get the work done are important, but most importantly is that the aggregate intelligence of the group be represented in the actions the software provides. In answer to the second question of what are transaction supported collaborative environments?, well they don't exist yet and that is what I want to start building here for oil and gas. This working paper is available from Harvard Business School and begins the difficult task of identifying the needs of a "transaction supported collaborative environment" and the importance in innovation.

Abstract

One of the things that I have learned since being heavily exposed to collaborative environments is they are difficult, and the approach is never the same. Just as people are different, each collaboration is. The ability to proceed with preconceived notions just doesn't work. The need to adopt a flexible framework from the beginning and throughout the discussion is mandatory. How is it that collaboration brings the wisdom of the crowds? I think the authors begin to define it in this paper, so lets jump in with a clear definition of how collaboration is beginning to be used in industry.

Instead, innovations are increasingly brought to the market by networks of firms, selected for their unique capabilities, and operating in a coordinated manner. This new model demands that firms develop different skills, in particular, the ability to collaborate with partners to achieve superior innovation performance. Yet despite this need, there is little guidance on how to develop or deploy this ability.
This comment is consistent with the vision of this development project. As I have noted here in my research; the software defines and supports the organization. Before you can make a change it has to be implemented into the software first. Recognizing the JOC as the market structure of the industry will require software to be defined in order to mitigate the detrimental effects and enhance the benefits of collaboration.
This article describes the results of a study to understand the strategies and practices used by firms that achieve greater success in their collaborative innovation effects. We found many firms mistakenly applied an "outsourcing" mindset to collaboration efforts which in turn, led to three critical errors: First, they focused solely on lower costs, failing to consider the broader strategic role of collaboration. Second, they didn't organize effectively for collaboration, believing that innovation could be managed much like production and partners treated like "suppliers." And third, they didn't invest in building collaborative capabilities, assuming that their existing people and processes were already equipped for the challenge. Successful firms, by contrast, developed an explicit strategy for collaboration and made organizational changes to aid performance in these efforts. Ultimately, these actions allowed them to identify and exploit new business opportunities. In sum, collaboration is becoming a new and important source of competitive advantage. We propose several frameworks to help firms develop and exploit this new ability.
Facing "peak oil" the energy industry has no option to dabble in this area. This has to be a concerted effort to make these changes. Success is not an option and the time to change is now.

Introduction

I have shared my concerns with how the individual companies within the energy industry do not share the sense of urgency or concern for the overall supply of oil. Theirs is a commercial operation that is operating at record profits. The decline in their reserve base and production profile are an inherent part of the business and they are doing just fine. How this system gets built is a question I face every day. Individually, people within the industry comment that the idea of using the JOC is the right thing to do, however, no company will step up and make the first move. Its the worst Mexican standoff anyone could imagine. Irrespective of the reasons regarding innovation and the need for greater speed from an operational point of view. The new technologies are beginning to finally be assembled into their final parts. The capability and comprehensive nature of the offerings are now complete in terms of the needs for a system that is built for the purposes here. And that is the point of the authors in this next section.
This new model is being driven by a series of trends forcing firms to re-think traditional approaches to innovation. First, the complexity of products is increasing, in terms of the number of technologies they include. No longer is it possible for one firm to master all these skills and locate them under one roof. Second, a supply of cheap skilled labor has emerged in developing countries, creating incentives to substitute these resources for higher-cost equivalents. Third, different regions of the world have developed unique skills and capabilities, which leading firms are now exploiting for advantage. And finally, advances in development tools and technology combined with the rise of open architectures and standards have driven down the costs of coordinating distributed work. In sum, collaboration is no longer a "nice to have." It is a competitive necessity.
If peak oil is not a compelling call to action, possibly this technological trend should be.

Collaboration is not "Outsourcing"

I have written extensively about Professor Richard Langlois' theories around the boundaries of the firm. How the natural tendency is to have either the market or the firm be determined and configured to be the means to lower "transaction costs". And how today's Information Technologies can provide for lower transaction costs in a contractual or market environment. The authors provide further justification and clarification of how these changes are strategic and not inappropriate approaches to outsourcing.
Our study revealed dramatic differences in the performance of firms collaboration efforts, driven by contrasting approaches to their management. In particular, many firms mistakenly applied a "production outsourcing" mindset to collaboration, viewing the use of partners only as a means to achieve lower costs through "wage arbitrage" - substituting a US resource with a cheaper one of equivalent skill.
By contrast, successful firms went beyond simple wage arbitrage, asking global partners to contribute knowledge and skills to projects, with a focus on improving their top-line. And they re-designed their organizations, to increase the effectiveness of these efforts.
Managing collaboration the same way a firm handles the outsourcing of production is a flawed approach. Production and innovation are fundamentally different activities - while the former seeks to replicate an existing product at low cost, the other seeks to develop something entirely new and valuable. In addition, outsourcing and collaboration have very different objectives. Outsourcing involves producing a commodity asset or resource at the cheapest prices. Collaboration, by contrast, entails accessing globally dispersed knowledge, leveraging new capability and sharing risk with partners.
Firms which managed collaboration using an "outsourcing" mindset made three critical errors, as compared to more successful organizations:
  • They didn't consider the strategic role of collaboration, but saw it only as a tactic for reducing cost. As a result, their efforts were misaligned with their business strategy.
  • They didn't organize effectively for collaboration. Instead, they treated partners like suppliers of parts or raw materials, and manged them using a procurement function.
  • They didn't make long term investments to develop collaborative capabilities. Instead, they assumed their existing staff and processes could handle the challenge.
In combination, these errors meant firms systematically missed opportunities to use collaboration for competitive advantage. By contrast, successful firms found that attention to these critical areas generated new options to create value that competitors could not replicate. Below, we describe the principles that these latter firms employed.
Develop a Global Collaboration Strategy

A brief summary of where I foresee collaboration being used in the energy industry. The JOC may represent a property in any location, owned by companies registered in different countries and with different product knowledge and capabilities. The pooling of each producer's resources through the collaboration should be the first order of business. Having one company designated as the "operator", I think, is not desirable nor very productive. We see independent silo's representing the capability to conduct operations all around the world. And these capabilities are all duplications of one another and mutually exclusive to the needs of the various JOC's. With the shortfall of engineering and earth scientists in oil and gas, the ability to virtually pool individual resources necessary for the operation, based on the operations need is what the objectives should be. This is in line with the thinking of the authors of this Harvard document. The market of suppliers, vendors and contractors should interact with the JOC to support the operation and implement its plans for the facility or single well. This virtual environment supported and defined by the software, built for the energy industry by its users, and conducts the transaction requirements, the knowledge management and governance of the decisions made by the JOC. This is a very brief summary of this software developments proposal and I would recommend the review of the archives of this blog for further clarification of these ideas. Nonetheless, it is obvious to most that the need to have a purpose built system with a dedicated and focused software development team be deployed to make this application real.

The authors continue with the discussion of how their study reflected on two different strategies towards collaboration. I think it reflects my optimistic view of collaboration being a productive tool for management, and if the management see it as a threat or just another trend to be followed, they may miss many of the benefits.
Collaboration received little senior management attention; when it did, it was because expectations were not being met.
Leading firms, by contrast, developed an explicit strategy for collaboration, designed to support their business goals. In contrast to organizations that viewed collaboration only as a tool for reducing cost, these firms considered a variety of more strategic benefits, in particular, assessing how collaboration could improve their top line through increased product differentiation. Successful organizations achieved this in two ways: first, by leveraging a partner's superior capabilities (i.e., know-how that the firm did not possess internally); and second, by accessing a partners contextual knowledge (i.e., knowledge that the partner possessed by virtue of its local position). In combination, these benefits comprise the "3C's" of a global collaboration strategy.
The authors continue to assert the need for management buy-in. For the energy industry to succeed in this software development proposal there has to be a high level of commitment to it form management. I think the salient warning from CapGemini about these technologies affecting operations today is something management should think clearly about. Are these back door solutions to be stomped out, or should they be welcomed and supported as legitimate methods of achieving the necessary work. I also believe the time for these types of solution to be built and prospectively developed is drawing close. Management needs to get behind this with the long term perspective of developing these types of systems for the next 3 - 4 years.

Lowering R&D Costs
Leading firms however, lowered cost in a different way. Rather than swap one resource for another, they "reconfigured" their operations to optimize performance at the system level. While the decisions they made in isolation, sometimes appeared to add cost, these firms understood the need to change the way they organized to maximize the value of collaborative efforts.

Leveraging Superior Capabilities
Leading firms focused greater attention on how to leverage partner capabilities. We observed two broad types of capability in action: First, the ability to rapidly bring online large amounts of capacity, allowing firms to lower time to market and increase responsiveness, while avoiding the cost of full-time staff; and second, the ability to access unique competencies, technical know-how and / or process expertise that firms did not possess internally. Successful firms sought partners with a blend of both abilities, giving them instant access to a repertoire of skills not available in-house. As one manager recalled, "It takes us nine months to find and hire a new employee. But using our partner, we staffed up in two weeks, accessing a skill that we don't have internally."
Thinking Strategically

Thinking strategically is the point that I have tried to make. Clearly the easy oil is gone. The costs associated to produce one barrel of oil are increasing in lockstep with the costs of discovery. The amount of engineering and earth science effort per barrel of oil has probably doubled in the past 5 years. And it will continue to increase, not decrease over time. With the shortfalls in human resources today, I believe Adam Smith's division of labor theory will provide the additional resources necessary for the industry to deal with the difficult problems ahead. A reorganization around the JOC is 100% in compliance with the cultural framework of the industry. Pooled human resources, supported by markets will provide the productivity increases that Adam Smith's theories provide. A theory which has been proven correct for hundreds of years. This organizational change can not be implemented without the software defining and supporting the industry. Without the software a firm will be relegated to manual systems or loss of the opportunities I just wrote about. These are the associated choices for management today and the point of the authors.
To Illustrate, consider the strategies of two firms - A and B - depicted in Figure 2. Initially, firm B has a dominant position, with lower cost and superior differentiation. But firm A has identified opportunities to improve its position through collaboration. It can move along the horizontal to position C, achieving lower cost, or along the vertical to position D, achieving superior differentiation. Or it can move to position E, which is superior on both dimensions. In essence, collaboration has the potential to move firm A to the "frontier" of the space joining C,D, and E. Contrast this with a firm that views collaboration only as a way to lower cost; this firm sees only one position to move to. While this may be a good choice, this firm does not see that it is not the only choice.
That although I have stated the reorganization to the JOC is consistent with the culture of the industry. The culture of the industry is a very competitive one. The ability to compete and succeed in oil and gas takes a certain capability and understanding that many have stated as being second only to NASA in terms of complexity. From my 30 years experience, I agree. Changing this competitive culture to one of co-opetition or whatever buzz word that comes along will be difficult. In line with this thinking I have suggested that the land base and the companies research and development capabilities are their future competitive assets. Moving to this thinking will take time, and indeed, may never occur. I have placed my investment of time and energy in the idea that the common sense use of the JOC will ultimately prevail, with or without the support of current management. I have an undying faith that the competitive structure of the JOC will accelerate the capacity within the industry to the point where the bureaucracy would otherwise not be capable of competing. The area the authors call E in Figure 2 is where I expect to see the JOC leading the industry.
While successful firms often used different terms to those above, all had developed similar methods to align collaboration efforts to their business strategy. Collaboration received visibility at a senior level, and was an integral part of the strategic-planning process. Increasingly, the focus was not on wage arbitrage, but on using partners to increase business value. these firms grew more sophisticated in the use of collaboration over time; by contrast, poor performers remained stubbornly focused on cost.
Organize for Collaboration

Innovation in oil and gas is a difficult prospect. As I mentioned earlier in this post, the earth sciences and engineering disciplines make the industry second only in complexity to the space industry. There is another element of the complexity that needs to be considered and that is uncertainty. The ability to say unequivocally that this is factual is difficult when your talking about forces several thousand feet below. The uncertainty element invokes the commercial environment on the producer. Then to make things even more difficult the innovation has to be progressive enough to push the science. And as I noted in the plurality writings, there is a strong influence of the science in innovation, which leads to greater understanding and a further development of the science.
The need for a different model can be seen by considering the challenge of partnering along two dimensions: The degree of uncertainty over the product to be produced; and the degree of uncertainty over the process to produce it (see Figure 3). Replicating an existing product (i.e., production) involves little uncertainty while developing a new one (i.e., innovation) is far more uncertain. Similarly, some processes are routine and easily specified whereas others are idiosyncratic and rely on trial and error learning. When firms face little uncertainty on both dimensions - the arena of production outsourcing - traditional models work well, given firms can specify what they want and how it should be made. As uncertainty increases however, a more collaborative approach is needed.
It is at this point that I would also assert that the production process, which is inevitable and in constant decline, adds further uncertainty above and beyond that of the firm. This is why $79 oil seems very cheap to me. The following quotation of the authors provides a good understanding of the work that is done at the Joint Operating Committee. This is how the industry has developed and how it functions. Unfortunately all of the software development projects fail to capture this organization and its role in the day to day operations. This is the business of the business, and due to a number of forces the business of the corporations has become the oil and gas regulatory compliance, tax compliance, SEC compliance and this is where the ERP focus has lead the organizations to focus and consume their time.
Leading firms viewed partners as an extension of their own development organizations, seeking their participation in meetings and including them in internal communication. As part of this philosophy, they required greater continuity in partner staff, in contrast to a transactional model, in which people move in and out of projects. This ensured the "tacit" knowledge of a projects' context was retained, and improved communication between teams. As one manager explained, "It takes time to appreciate the skills of each team member and understand how to work together. When people leave, we have to go through that learning curve again. So we put a premium on ensuring staff continuity".
This focus on the business is where the industry has to move to. Compliance and governance has to be as a result of conducting the business of the business. As simple as that sounds the administration of oil and gas has become completely divorced from the reality of the business. This is primarily the result of the software vendors focus on ensuring the technical accounting and compliance of the firm.

The authors now approach one of the difficult areas of collaboration. Intellectual property (IP) is the source of much value in today's economy. Who owns what and where did it come from are important considerations when the partnership as represented by the Joint Operating Committee is concerned. Traditionally the Chairman of the JOC used his firms resources to operate the programs that were agreed to by the partnership. With the prospective pooling of the technical resources as proposed here, the intellectual property can become problematic. The manner in which IP is managed in this industry is consistent with the keeping of trade secrets. I have noted here before that the stickiness of knowledge moving through the organization is contrasted to the leakiness of knowledge through the various industry related disciplines. If someone discovers something new, it is generally fairly well known on the street in a few weeks. Therefore no one has the right of that property, and most importantly copyright law is designed to disseminate ideas throughout the community as quickly as possible. There needs to be some soul searching as to how firms manage their alleged secrets and the result of their research.
The final area in which firms made different organizational choices was in intellectual property (IP) management. Global partners increasingly develop their own IP - new components, technologies and processes - to improve project performance. Furthermore, collaboration often requires that partners re-use and add to a firms existing IP in the search for new solutions. Given these trends, traditional approaches to IP which assume that a firm must develop, own, protect and isolate its IP are increasingly outdated.
and
While successful firms in our study differed on the specifics of their IP policies, their actions reflected a common shift in values; towards a more open and flexible approach. these firms sought to leverage partner IP, focusing on the cost and speed advantages, which outweighed the concerns about the need for control. They developed mechanisms for partners to access their own IP, in a way that facilitated collaboration but ensured the protection of competitive assets. And they shared newly developed IP when the firm and its partners could benefit form its application, as long as the uses were not competitive.
Build Collaborative Capabilities.

Collaborative skills are hard to come by without the efforts of many who are willing to contribute and learn. These are standard fare for the process of collaboration and I apply this throughout the industry. The smartest, most educated and most recent additions to the firm are needed to adopt these perspectives. Here the authors begin to identify some of the salient points involved in good collaborative practices.
The final area separating leading firms from others was their willingness to invest in developing "collaborative capabilities." All too often, firms assumed that their existing employees, processes and infrastructure were capable of meeting the challenge of collaboration. But successful collaboration doesn't just happen - it is a skill that must be learned. Rarely do firms get it "right first time." Leading firms recognized this reality and made investments to enhance their performance over time.
and
Successful firms targeted investments in four areas: people, process, platforms and programs. We call these the "Four Pillars" of collaborative capability (see Figure 4). These investments were typically funded outside the budgets of individual projects, given few projects can justify the levels of infrastructure needed to perform well on their own. In essence, leading firms made a strategic decision to invest in collaborative capabilities, and sought to leverage these investments across projects and over time.
Developing People

My first truly collaborative environment came about in 2000 when I started my on-line MBA. The university had over 1,500 students located throughout the world and closely tied together in a Lotus Notes collaborative environment. It was fascinating to learn so many things about businesses that were in Kuwait, China and even your own province. My perspective changed over the course of three years of study. And I learned to adopt a broader point of view about the contributions that I made. Asking key questions after attempting to learn the unique perspectives of the participants and then attempt to build on the quality and quantity of knowledge held within the diverse groups, were skills that are not easy to come by. The intensity of the learning was heightened as a result of the close collaborations.
Superior performance in collaboration requires people with different skills, given team members often lie outside the boundaries of the firm, are located in far flung countries and have vastly different cultures, The "art" of management in such projects is in finding ways to exert influence over resources not under a firms control. Rather than a focus on deep technical expertise, managers therefore require a much broader skill set, associated with the need to orchestrate and coordinate the work of distributed teams.
I have not been able to specify the manner in which the process of this software development will proceed. Collaboration is a key component, as will software that defines the process and the roles of individuals and companies. The way that the Java Community Process is done is a given as far as I am concerned, however, there are other elements of how things get built that I have to research and determine before we start writing code.
Most projects we observed employed a formal product development methodology based upon a modified "stage-gate" or "waterfall" type process. These processes are increasingly popular ways to ensure greater control and consistency in the execution of projects. But these techniques, and others that share their roots, are often predicated on the assumption of single-site development. There is a need to re-think how they should operate when managing the distribution of work among a team of global partners.
Building platforms

The following in my opinion is a call to action for these types of activities to be conducted, coordinated and implemented on an industry wide basis. Decisions are being made without the input of others to ensure a timely start to these developments. Selecting the Google Apps as the platform to begin the collaboration and develop is a rather obvious choice, particularly when you consider where Google's engineering and innovation may take the product too.
Leading firms developed technology "platforms" to improve the coordination of work. These platforms comprised four main parts: First, development tools and technologies to improve the efficiency of distributed work; second, technical standards and interfaces to ensure the seamless integration of partner outputs; third, rules to govern the sharing of intellectual property among partners; and fourth, knowledge management systems to capture the firms experience on how distributed work is best performed. This collaboration "infrastructure" was leveraged across multiple projects over time. The goal was to promote a long-term view of the assets needed for effective collaboration.
For the risks and errors can be and are very large.
Consider the troubles at Airbus in developing its flagship A380 aircraft. Airbus' German and French partners chose to work with different versions of the Dassualt Systems' Catia design software. But design information in the older systems was not translated accurately into the new new one, which held the "master" version. With a physical mock-up, these problems remained hidden throughout the project. The result: 300 miles of wiring, 100,000 wires and 40,000 connectors that did not fit, leading to a 2 year production delay at a cost of $6bn. Yet the cause of Airbus's problems was not in choosing different versions; rather it lay in the lack of an effective process for dealing with the problems this created.
Managing Programs.

The energy industry has a choice. They can begin serious efforts down this road with the objective of building systems to enhance innovativeness and performance, or continue on in the manner that they currently are. At some point in time someone will realize the intellectual property that I have developed here in this blog is the constructive direction of the industry. If not then we would have the ability to modify it to make that assertion valid.
Successful firms managed their collaboration efforts as a coherent "program," in contrast to organizations which ran each project on a stand-alone basis. A program view was critical given collaboration projects rarely met expectations early on, and performance often deteriorated when the scope of efforts was increased. Leading firms did not differ from others in this respect; but they did differ in the rate at which they improved. Top performers put in place mechanisms to help improve their collaboration skills over time.
A New Source of Competitive Advantage
Firms that devoted attention to the three areas above - strategy, organization and capability development - were more successful in their collaboration efforts. For a few firms in our study however, these efforts not only lent support to their existing business strategies, but also led to new value creation opportunities. Their investments to build capabilities, in turn, created options to pursue strategies that could not be replicated by competitors; especially those that managed collaboration like outsourcing. For these firms, collaboration had become a source of competitive advantage (see Figure5).
In our view, Boeing's source of competitive advantage is shifting; it is less and less related to the possession of deep individual technical skills in hundreds of diverse disciplines. While the firm still possesses such knowledge, this is no longer what differentiates it from competitors such as Airbus, who can access similar capabilities. Rather, Boeing's unique assets and skills are increasingly tied to the way the firm orchestrates, manages and coordinates its network of hundreds of global partners. Boeing's experience is increasingly common across the industries we observed: Collaboration is becoming a new and important source of competitive advantage.


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Photos Courtesy the authors.

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Institution, Inertia, and Changing Industrial Leadership

Paul L. Robertson
Department of Economics and Management, University College, University of New South Wales, Australia

Richard N. Langlois
Department of Economics, The University of Connecticut, USA

March 1994,
Back into our working paper review, this next document is one that was co-written by Langlois in 1994. We have been able to learn many positive things from his works, and this article predates most of the review we have done so far. Application of his theories to the energy industry has helped in defining the boundaries of the firm, and given us a clear separation of the optimal market and firm definitions. We have also been able to specify the software modules that will best provide the oil and gas producer with the ability to be fast, innovative and profitable. Another key finding from Langlois involves the analysis of transaction costs and how the information technologies have reduced the overall costs of transactions. Enabling them to reside within their optimal area of either the firm or market definition.
I am extremely pleased with the progress made through our review of Professor Langlois. Framing the perspectives of the industries history, it's current environment and future makeup. The clarity of his thinking resonates with its application to energy and the time frame we find ourselves. We have also briefly discussed the economic cycle and how it may affect the energy industry. This has included the discussion of Professor Carlotta Perez' works in defining the transitional point in time we currently find ourselves. It would be a difficult argument to assert that the energy industry is in a static state. Many of the changes being faced by the industry are fundamental in their origins and contain threats and opportunities to each and every producer, individual and society.
Introduction
Langlois and Robertson start this paper by framing the effect of economics over time; and ask if the pace of change in economics is incremental or revolutionary.
One of the most persistent debates surrounding economic change is whether it is incremental or revolutionary in nature; whether, for instance, a period of change that lasted anywhere from seventy to one hundred years may be properly termed an Industrial Revolution. (Landes, 1991; Cameron, 1985). Unless we abandon standard models of causality and are willing to invoke an occasional deux ex machina to explain change, the incrementalists are of course correct in insisting that, in the end, any event represents a change in the existing framework in the sense that it flows from (can be explained by) antecedent events and conditions. This however begs the question of the rate of change since it is still entirely conceivable that there are periods when change accelerates or slows relative to other periods. Moreover, even a moderate rate of change may be consistent with significant discontinuities in that some economic agents (individuals, firms, or other institutions such as the regulatory system) may drop out altogether and be replaced by others. In this case, seeming stability on a macro level may mask compositional effects that have a great impact on the various components of the economy. p. 2
Recall that the time frame in which this paper is written. I remember 1994 as a time that existed in an era of relative calm in comparison to today. Thirteen years has brought us Cell phones, the Internet, Globalization and many others. What will the next thirteen years bring? The Chinese proverb of "may you live in interesting times" comes to mind when we foresee the changes we have traversed, and will be challenged with in the very near future. I believe peak oil is possibly the largest challenge ever faced by mankind. Our current situation therefore has a definitive point in which change will be forced upon us. We need to be pro-active and deal with these challenges in a more constructive manner then denying that they exist. Our first priority should be to re-organize the energy industry so that it can face these difficulties. Inherent in that priority is the need to define and support the new organization with the software that will enable the organizational performance.
Several features of punctuated equilibrium stand out. Firstly, it is a lengthy process. Even the revolutionary or transitionary phase, in which two or more alternatives vie for success, may be prolonged for decades, or eons in the case of speciation. Secondly, the process, like Schumpeter's: creative destruction," is one of replacement. When there is punctuated equilibrium, the extinction of a species or discrediting of a scientific theory are not enough; there must be a new species available to take over the territory or a new theory to account for the phenomena that the old theory was once thought to explain. Thirdly, each period of punctuated change requires a behavioral shift to ensure alignment between the requirements of the new order and the actions of its agents. This shift might be accomplished internally, if the old agents adapt their behavior to meet the new conditions, or externally if they are supplanted by a new group of agents. Finally, inertia plays a central role in punctuated equilibrium by ensuring that change proceeds by fits and starts rather than smoothly and evenly. pp. 2 - 3
So there we have a definition of why change seems to be slow. There needs to be a competition in essence for which systems should prevail. This force is the inertia that the bureaucracy maintains and the ideas that I have written about here. I assume, or indeed hope, that the time where these two opposing ideas are competing considers the necessary time for these technologies to be assembled. I believe we have many years ahead of us before this true comparison of the two alternatives can be adequately evaluated. In theory the Joint Operating Committee has been assembled by the oil and gas industry to deal with the partnerships that are its founding. The tacit understanding that this blogs theories are sound are exactly that. Theories, vapor ware, unknowns and unproven. Yet hold elements of promise that should be evaluated by this greater competition between the bureaucracy and the ideas articulated here.
Inertia is the focus of this paper. As is explained in more detail below, inertia has two major functions in the cycle of punctuated equilibrium. Inertia result from, and in a sense embodies, the best feature of the stable phase of the cycle because it is based on the learning process in which producers determine which procedures are most efficient and effective. Once people are satisfied that the know how to do things well, they have very little incentive to look for or adopt new methods. In the words of Tushman and Romanelli (1985, pp. 197, 205), "those same social and structural factors which are associated with effective performance are also the foundations of organizational inertia..., success sows the seeds of extraordinary resistance to fundamental change." Inertia also provides the tension, however, that leads to the (relatively) short, sharp shock of the revolutionary period (Gould, 1983, p. 153) because the pressure required to displace a successful but inert system is considerable and takes time to accumulate. When there is little inertia, change can be assimilated in a gradual and orderly fashion, but an entrenched system may need to be vigorously displaced. p. 3
I may seem melodramatic in how I perceive the problem and hence the need to begin this project. The bureaucracies are currently enjoying success while the energy reserves of which society depends are depleted. It is not the corporation's problem. It is the society as a whole that should be standing behind these ideas and moving them forward. The corporations are profitable and their production profile and reserves continue to climb. Theirs is a commercial pursuit that is working just fine.
Here we concentrate on explaining the part played by inertia in causing economic displacement. We argue that inertia is often a rational response for firms or governments even after an important innovation becomes available, and that changes in economic leadership, whether on the level of the firm or the nation, may be inevitable when there is significant innovation. p. 4
Institutions and Inertia.
The corporations that I speak of will probably be replaced to a large extent by the oil and gas investor actively involved in exploration and production. Relying on the collective market resources contained within the Joint Operating Committees they participate in. This is a rather far-reaching statement that can't be supported at this time. However, the replacement of the corporation may involve the investor being more involved in the day to day of the operation. The strong separation between ownership and management is the area where much needs to be addressed. It is my read of the management mindset in oil and gas that they are not going to approach any large and difficult problems before their individual retirements. They have spent twenty plus years in working to build what exists today and have no vision, motivation or capability to deal with the future. And this is the reason for the early prevalence of Peak Oil. In this scenario the management are the odd men out and the investors may have to be the ones that make the change towards the systems I write about here. In the past few months we have heard many groups resonate the concern for Peak Oil. The prescriptions are all remarkably alike, yet the bureaucracies are deaf, dumb and blind, cheered along by Dr. Daniel Yergin's promises of an unprecedented 16 million barrel per day capacity increases.
There is a range of explanations of inertia. One set is the "real" or, in the narrow sense, "economic" explanations that look to abstract variables like demand levels, factor endowments, and relative prices to justify the failure of some organizations to change. A second reason for inertia is simple incompetence, when managers are either too stupid or too idle to adopt desirable new methods. p. 4
and
Here, we concentrate on the influence of institutional variables on inertia. Institutions may either retard or encourage innovation. If the institutional structure is unsuited to a new technology and inert, change will be difficult to implement. When existing institutions are flexible or well adapted to the requirements of an innovation, however, change will be accomplished relatively easily. p. 5
and
And institutional change, we argue, can often take place through the more or less slow dying out of obsolete institutions in a population and their replacement by better-adapted institutions - rather than by the conscious adaptation of existing institutions in the face of change. p. 6
and
In this paper, we restrict ourselves to pointing out that no single form of organization is appropriate for all, or even a majority of, cases in which innovation is desirable. p. 7
On routines and capabilities.
From what I can discern in conversations with people within the industry. It appears that the companies have become encased in concrete. Nothing is happening in Calgary other then a slow and steady march that replicates itself each day. It would be all right if this march was able to generate some movement in the long run, but I cannot determine that is the case. The proliferation and prevalence of the executive assistant and phone mail have provided safe havens for those that have no desire to fight the inertia that remains within the business. Feeding the printers with paper seems to be a most productive effort in the overall scheme of things. People are thinking that their retirements are soon to arrive, and then this will all end.
Maybe it is the individuals that see the peak oil situation that are the ones that need to adjust their expectations. What do they expect from a firm that has survived the 1980's and 1990's, through the long and difficult times of the cheap oil era. These individuals and companies are the survivors, for it is the survivor skill set that was necessary in order to exist. Expecting anything greater then survival would have been difficult to ask, or implement or change to meet the challenges of today. Professor Langlois writes that a similar situation to this scenario is the effective long term advantage of the firm.
Overall, then, inertia exerts two principal influences on the ability of firms to cope with innovation. Inertia is often a product of successful adaptation to earlier innovation, as a firm develops ways of operating that appear to be so well suited to its internal and external environment that it sees no reason to change. In many instances, this adaptation may prove so effective that the firm can retain a total cost advantage for a prolonged period despite using an outdated technology because it can still capitalize on its master of compatible support and ancillary operations, while firms adopting a new, and technically more efficient technology, are still wrestling with the expensive process of acquiring the endogenous and exogenous institutional backup necessary to gain full value from the innovation (Hannan and Freeman, 1989). p. 7
This last comment being particularly valid as they control the budget and therefore no new ideas will be sponsored that would challenge their existence. Leaving society with the legacy and challenge of peak oil to itself.
When inertia retards the learning process necessary to deal with a subsequent important innovation, however, firms that are otherwise in a position to make the eventual transition to a new technology may be so slow in coming to grips with change that dominance shifts to new entrants who are unencumbered by prior developments, learn new adaptive procedures more quickly, and are able, therefore, largely to appropriate the market by the time the established firms have learned to cope with the innovation. The obstacle in this case is may be termed "lockout", as leaders using the old technology find that they cannot successfully make the transition when there is a significant innovation (Cohen and Levinthal, 1990, p. 137). pp. 7 - 8
And hence, the wonderful sound of the term creative destruction. I have long given up on expecting the corporations will do anything to move these ideas forward. I think in this article Langlois and Robertson are being prescient in their thinking that organizations would not survive.

I continue to think back to Langlois' slides of his presentation at the ESNIE conference. The first slide documenting the market activities of the gun makers in the 1800's. It is the market that will be the form of organization that will rise to the challenge of peak oil. The market in oil and gas is in many ways runs parallel to the Joint Operating Committee. And what I think one of the most important attributes of a market is that it is made up of individuals operating in their own best interests. And this may be the key in having this software development project be successful. The culture of the Joint Operating Committee is a key foundation of the global energy business. What activities that I am recommending that we pursue here are 100% in alignment with the culture of the oil and gas industry. The corporations have regressed to a self serving model of compliance and summarily ignore the JOC. And as time passes, they will be less and less able to influence their inevitable demise.
Another aspect of capabilities that has recently received a great deal of attention is organizational culture. In practice, not all organizations may be equally able to cope with change, as existing patterns of behavior involving both executives and subordinates may be resistant to change. Organizations develop collective habits or ways of thinking that can be altered only gradually. To the extent that a given culture is either flexible or consistent with a proposed change in product or process technology, the transition to the new regime will be relatively easy. If, however, the culture is incompatible with the needs posed by the change and is inflexible, the viability of the change will be threatened (Robertson, 1990; Langlois 1991; Camerer and Vepsalainen, 1988). p. 9
From my point of view SAP provides the bureaucratic system that identifies and supports the inflexible organization. An oil and gas company should never have purchased SAP. I have seen in many instances that the system is unable to deal with the associated gross and net distributions of working interest partners. Developers have prepared a derivative work-around that uses the budget and actual costs to account for the partners shares. These types of activities that are ingrained in the organization are inconsistent with the culture of the industry. The JOC is the natural form of organization and have never seen any recognition of it by SAP or Oracle. I am not so much fighting the ingrained culture of the industry as it is a bureaucracy supported by heavily reworked systems. I would assume that if this software would be developed, its explicit recognition of the legal, financial, operational decision making and cultural frameworks of the industry would flow naturally through the cultural manner of the industry. Therefore I am not proposing any wild rework of systems thinking upon the industry. I am bringing the technologies under the control of the user to accurately match the culture.
Nelson and Winter have formulated an economic analogue of capabilities, including organizational culture. "Routines," as they put it, "are the skills of an organization." In the course of its development, a firm acquires a repertoire of routines that derives from its activities over the years. To the extent that these routines are efficient and difficult to come by, they are a most important asset, but they also induce inertia because they are difficult for the firm to change once in place. p. 10
What I am suggesting here is that the fight between the current installed base of systems and their associated culture will pale in performance to the organization that is optimized and supported around the JOC. This is how the industry was conceived to operate, and therefore will win over the bureaucracies current installed inertia. What we recently learned from Professor Paul Romer is that ideas are the life blood of economic growth. How many ideas are wasted as a result of the inability of anyone to assert the "better way." Where the systems and inertia stop all manner of thinking and eliminate the desire for change.
Teece... fails to note that the inflexibility, or inertia, induced by routines and the capabilities that they generate can raise to prohibitive levels the cost of adopting a new technology or entering new fields. Such inertia can develop to the extent that existing rules are both hard to discard and inconsistent with types of change that might otherwise be profitable. p. 10
So where is this analysis of Langlois and Robertson taking us. If we add the element of time that peak oil brings to the current conversation, the sense of urgency to deal with these issues demands immediate action. And if there were ever a clarion call to action that encapsulated my opinion as to the validity of these concepts, it would be the following.
Whereas major competence enhancing innovations may, in time, be assimilated, the creation of entirely new organizations may be needed to deal with innovations that undermine the capabilities or competences of existing firms. p. 11
Expecting someone else to fix this is not working. It is now time for each individual to stand up and take hold of these opportunities and make them real.
Learning and Inertia.
Langlois and Robertson have some additional key points that appear to me to be self-evident. I would also assert that the discussion about learning has affected the energy industry. The effect being that it has enabled the firms to remain blind to the issues associated with peak oil.
Firms that do not make the correct decisions (that do not know how to learn what they specifically need to learn) may lose irrevocably. In the words of Cohen and Levinthal (1990, p. 138):
A firm without a prior technological base in a particular field may not be able to acquire one readily if absorptive capacity is cumulative. In addition a firm may be blind to new development in fields in which it is not investing if its updating capability is low. Accordingly ... firms may not realize that they should be developing their absorptive capacity due to an irony associated with its valuation: the firm needs to have some absorptive capacity to value it appropriately.
If the innovation is competence destroying, the inertia generated by mastery of an older technology may preclude the rapid acquisition of knowledge that will permit the transition. Competence enhancing innovation, on the other hand, can benefit either existing firms or new entrants depending on whether the competences that are strengthened are related to or distinct from those associated with the old technology. p. 13
Conclusion
I find the conclusion the authors provide in this document to be good advice for those that work in the energy industry, and therefore will leave with their policy recommendations.
Institutional factors, especially those embodied in capabilities and routines, can both improve the ability of a firm to exploit an existing technology and make it more difficult to innovate by generating an inertia that is hard to overcome. p. 25
When this is true, a change in industrial leadership is probable, with the hitherto dominant firms becoming either followers or leave the industry altogether because they are no longer competitive. p.25
A number of policy implications flow from this analysis: p. 25
1) It may be highly rational for a firm to cling to an old technology, even if it has a limited life span. The return to harvesting may be greater than that to innovating for a firm that has strong routines and capabilities relevant to the old technology but has fewer capabilities suited to the innovation than other firms. p. 25

2) Governments should be wary, however, of propping up firms that do not have the necessary capabilities to cope with change. Too little attention is sometimes given to the "destruction" aspect of creative destruction. It can be very expensive to help firms to cling indefinitely to outdated technologies or to pay them to acquire capabilities that other firms have gained more cheaply. to the extent that some firms are encouraged to persist with obsolete technologies longer than they otherwise would, the adoption of an innovation by other firms with better capabilities may be retarded, causing a long term cost to society. p. 25

3) If it is nevertheless felt, either by private firms or governments, that they need to obtain a foothold in the innovative technology despite a high degree of rational inertia, it is best to begin adjusting as soon as possible. Otherwise, competitors may have acquired so much experience with the innovation that late adopters will be hard pressed to catch up in the acquisition of tacit and proprietary knowledge. p. 25

4) One way of handling innovation when a firm has good reasons to remain inert is through "tapered adoption." In this way, through pilot projects it will be possible to acquire knowledge and avoid falling too far behind despite the probable losses that the innovation will bring in the early stages. The experiments can then be gradually expanded to replace the old technology as the cost advantage shifts towards the innovation. If an industry is believed to be of great strategic or economic importance, governments may wish to encourage firms to embrace tapered adoption. pp. 25 - 26

5) The analysis also offers evidence that in fact industry arguments can make sense if a nation whose firms have been followers under an old technology believes that there are sufficient capabilities available to support an innovation. In such cases, there could be a substantial long run payoff to providing tariff protection for domestic innovators so that they can develop capabilities while inertia technology encourages overseas competitors to continue to use the old technology. p. 26

I believe the solution is to join me here in developing these software applications to identify and support the Joint Operating Committee as the organizational construct of the oil and gas industry.


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