Our review to date of this critical 1986 paper "The New Technologies: An Integrated View" by Professor Carlota Perez has already produced two spectacular posts. The first post rooted in academia the thought that using the Joint Operating Committee is the common-sense approach. The second post detailed the matter-of-fact way that using the JOC will influence the productive and value generating capability of the industry.
This post provides support for the type of oil and gas operation and software development capabilities that will be successful in the near future. Moving away from the command and control nature of the bureaucracy to a dynamic industry is difficult to see at this point. Professor Perez helps us to detail the nature of this change.
IV. An exploration of the features of the new paradigm
From the previous discussion it should be clear that the effort we propose to undertake is not centered upon the electronics industry itself but in the trends generated in the whole of the economy by its development and the diffusion of its products. p. 18
We begin by examining the elements most closely related to the shift in the dynamics of relative costs; the impact this shift is likely to have on innovation trajectories and upon the mix of new products. Then, the new best practice production model, based on the characteristics of the new equipment, is analyzed. Finally, we try to identify the direction of change in the forms of organization and management of the firm. p. 18
NEW PARAMETERS FOR INNOVATION TRAJECTORIES
The importance of the oil and gas industry to society is accurately reflected in the calculation of
270 billion man days per day. Never before have we been so dependent on an industry for our very survival. The way that the industry proceeds from here needs to change. The bureaucracies are too slow and cumbersome to operate in this new dynamic world. The ability to explore and produce adequate volumes of energy is slipping behind the market's demand. This situation will continue of course, and the Information Technologies will enable the changes necessary for the industry to keep up to the demand for energy.
The central feature of the new paradigm is the trend towards increasing the information content of products, as opposed to energy or materials content. This is a direct consequence of the radical and continuing change in the relative cost structure towards ever cheaper information handling and transmission. For this phenomenon to introduce a bias in innovation, it is not necessary to assume that the costs of energy and materials will tend to increase constantly in absolute terms. It is enough to suppose that the diminishing cost and the growing potential of microelectronics will tend to widen the gap into the future. With this prospect, one can extrapolate forward the already observed new trends in product and process design. p. 18
And here Professor Perez eloquently details the characteristics inherent in People, Ideas & Objects and the
Draft Specification.
Small is more beautiful and more profitable than big; versatile, compatible, adaptable, are better than rigid. A programmable product is better than a dedicated one. A product capable of modular growth is superior to one with defined and static scale and potential. A product with greater speed of operation and response is preferable to a slower one. Any product capable of joining a network or becoming the center or an element of a system is better than an isolated one. Distributed “intelligence” is more efficient than centralized control. p. 19
and
These vast opportunities for introducing innovations in an ever-growing spectrum of applications and in an ever wider range of activities, multiplied by the number of successive generations of each equipment, indicate that the evolutionary trajectories of these new technology systems will stretch a very long way into the future. These series of innovations widen even further the field of action for the software industry. p. 20
That is the role of People, Ideas & Objects. To organize the communities of people who work within the oil and gas industry.
These new technology systems are the most likely to drive global growth for the decades ahead. Thus it is reasonable to expect that the most powerful and largest firms will tend to locate and concentrate in the most dynamic core areas of these systems. p. 21
Participation by users in these core areas is available. These are user-based developments that support the communities involved in oil and gas. The core areas of these systems are forming and organizing around the ideas of using the Joint Operating Committee.
Moreover, using similar equipment, small and medium plants can achieve an analogous flexibility and high efficiency. Thus, high levels of productivity are no longer so dependent on economies of scale. p. 23
This last quotation reflects the common-sense nature of using the Joint Operating Committee. It doesn't matter what size the producer that owns an interest in a property is. It could be Exxon or a local start-up. Financial ownership drives consensus at the participant level. The only area of concern or focus is the property that is associated with the JOC, and the strategy that each producer selects. Having a dynamic capability, as reflected in the
Resource Marketplace module of the Draft Specification gives an equality to all the producers. This is also one of the documented benefits of using People, Ideas & Objects, the
Financial Resource Marketplace permits ownership of any size of producer firm to participate in the JOC and not hinder the development of the property due to a lack of financial scale.
C. Technological dynamism: Design as an integral part of production
Over the past few hundred years. Man has used energy to leverage labor 45 fold. I believe it was around 1870 that labor from machines produced more then man. At what point in terms of leveraging our intellectual capabilities are we at today? What is holding us back from experiencing these types of benefits? Are the infrastructure to do so in place today? Or are we waiting for the bureaucracy to fund People, Ideas & Objects?
The coupling of computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing (CAD—CAM), together with expected increases in the productivity of software development, tend to diminish the relative cost of innovation and shorten the learning curves. This turns engineering design into a capital intensive activity and makes it an integral part of the production process with a crucial role in determining productivity and competitiveness. p. 24
D. Supply adapted to the shape of demand
In this next section Professor Perez identifies the nature of the bureaucracies view of the energy market. One in which demand adapted to the supply of oil and gas. Now the dynamic requires a different point of view. China, India and other developing nations have as much right, and possibly greater financial flexibility, to consume energy as the developed nations. Energy prices have responded, and they will continue to respond to this new reality.
Under the mass production paradigm, in which productivity and profitability depended on the growth of massive markets for identical products, pressure towards uniformity in consumption patterns was a condition of economic growth. In essence it was necessary for demand to adapt to the shape of supply. The new model tends to revert this relationship. pp. 25 - 26
This should be welcome news to the oil and gas producer! Greater demand and higher prices. The problem is that higher prices have helped the management of oil and gas keep maintain the status quo. Higher profits from higher prices have enabled the management to not only keep control longer then they should have, they have enabled the management to endow themselves with compensation schemes that make bankers look timid.
Maximum plant efficiency begins to be defined by its capacity to address the specificity of the particular market environment in which it operates. Thus, systems in use could tend to be infinitely diverse, covering even the narrowest niches and the furthest corners of the market and growing modularly at the rhythm of demand. p. 26
We need to act. The move towards the future that Professor Perez describes is to build the software. We are far too advanced a society just to leave it up to the market or some government agency. We need to act.
The vehicles for achieving all this diversity are the new branches of software and systems engineering. Their task could be understood as the last phase of production of the new capital goods (where their final purpose is defined). Their activities play a double role in the expansion of production under the new paradigm. On the one hand, they allow the multiplication of investment opportunities downstream by designing the systems to cover an infinite variety of new product and service markets. On the other hand, they foster the growth of the upstream demand for equipment, components, telecommunications services and other products of the motive branches. p. 26
March 31, 2010 is the deadline for raising our 2010 operating budget. After which a variety of consequences, such as financial penalties and a loss of one years time will occur. Our appeal should be based on the
30 compelling reasons of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are.
If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding
these software developments and communities, please follow our
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Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our
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email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the
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