Monday, August 22, 2016

Taking a Weeks Vacation

No posting this week. 

Friday, August 19, 2016

Well That Was Unexpected

Some interesting thinking is being done over at Vox.EU.org for once. Not that they don’t always do good work. It’s just rare to find any thinking in oil and gas that doesn’t just parrot the “market rebalancing” theme. They state that “A very incomplete global mapping suggests a US shale oil share of no more than 17% of a huge geological wealth.” And that “The advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking can also be applied to conventional oil extraction.” Kind of puts the argument about “market rebalancing” into perspective doesn’t it? It also makes the entire discussion of current inventories of oil and gas on hand in the U.S., those numbers that are eagerly awaited each Wednesday and Thursday moot. If the world has these types of resources on hand I can state unequivocally the oil and gas industry will never be profitable. The cash drainage will continue unabated for the remainder of the century.

We are on a dead end street travelling at 300 mph with no brakes and the brick wall is well within sight. Does anyone have a different scenario that they can paint? Is there something behind the vision of “market rebalancing” that is not permeating my thick skull? What’s the plan? How do people participate in the oil and gas industry without having to destroy their life savings, their careers and everything else. Is there a pool of unintelligent investor's that is as deep and as wide as the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans that I am not aware of? Just exactly, in light of these facts that the world now has horizontal drilling and fracking, will the industry proceed?

Muddle along! Nothing to see here. That’ll be the response to these facts that speak to the futility of proceeding without the Preliminary Specification in place. Creative destruction is the only answer to how the industry is rebuilt, brick by brick and stick by stick. What exists today is too vested in the status quo and is unable to deal with the situation on the ground. They started losing money six years ago when the natural gas prices were affected by shale. Their losses began to significantly increase when oil too was affected by the abundance of oil from shale formations. These losses demanded cash to continue which caused the investors and bankers to pause. We are now in a phase where the market value of oil and gas properties are being diminished by the sheer volume of properties being made available for sale. Chesapeake dumping their prized Barnett shale assets for nothing. Just to get away from the cash drain. But let’s be honest, next week's inventories may be down from their record volumes.

Our plan enables the industry to refocus on energy independence on the North American continent. Something everyone, even investors and bankers, can dedicate themselves too. In an era where the resources are as abundant as they are, this sounds contrary to the reality that has been painted here. Natural gas is a continental price. And the volume of oil produced by the U.S. is material to the world demand and supply. We do control our own destiny in the oil and gas industry. This however, is only the case if the industry is profitable. And real profits, not those SEC induced accounting profits of the past four decades. What the industry needs to do is to adopt the production discipline that only profitable production is produced. Which is attainable through the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model. Then and only then will the markets response attain its marginal prices. Until then we have these facts and these outcomes.

There is one material change as a result of the information from Vox.EU.org. And that is the market for People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification is global and not just North America. We however are not contemplating that at this time. The issue in North America is the one we are focused on and are capable of dealing with. Maybe we will be able to deal with the others in the future. I am not going to do anything about that now, we have a job to do, let's get it done.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Thursday, August 18, 2016

It's a Software Bug

I remember in the late 1990’s fibre optic cable was being laid everywhere by companies you never heard of and haven’t seen since. This was part of the .com boom and everyone and every company had to be on the Internet. For the past decade, the iPhone will soon be ten years old, it’s been phones and Apps. These devices have occupied more time than can be calculated. But you can see the boom that was brought about by this trend in Information Technology is waning too. So what’s next? Clearly, in my opinion, its ERP systems. Businesses have avoided the thought of doing another ERP integration, at least in oil and gas, for more than a decade. The word on the street is that ERP is the area that will build significant, quantum levels of value for a business by defining and supporting new business models. ERP systems are digitally disrupting businesses and are the next big trend in Information Technology. Everyone is getting into the game, even Google apparently.

People, Ideas & Objects value proposition certainly qualifies in terms of delivering quantum levels of value to the industry. We are still able to claim that we provide at least $25.7 to $45.7 trillion in incremental value over the next 25 years. A time when the industry will undertake the objective of energy independence on the continent based on the profitability of the producers and the service industry providers. We do this by implementing the ERP system that we call the Preliminary Specification. An eleven module oil and gas system design specifically for the issues that exist today, and the frameworks that form the industry. Enabling the Preliminary Specification to also provide the industry with the ability to deal with the issues and opportunities that we will face in these next 25 years.

These are not your grandfather's ERP systems. My two concerns right now are how do we get the user community to think. And once they begin to think, how do we get them to think faster. The speed of the industry's evolution and capabilities in terms of its throughput and innovativeness will be dependent on the quality of the organizations that makeup the industry. It’s not so much the case at the moment, but it will be in the very near future. The capabilities and throughput of the producer organizations will be dependent on the quality of the ERP software that these organization use. Today’s oil and gas ERP systems are the beginning of this trend. They are wholly incapable of dealing, or providing any solution to the issues and opportunities that the producer and industry are facing. They have locked, frozen and cemented the organization into an unchanging and unchangeable structure that has fundamentally failed their producer organizations. This is the new definition of a software bug.

One thing about Information Technology trends is that everyone wants to be part of one when the time comes. It’s early still, but we are looking for the leadership component that will be necessary to drive the changes needed in the oil and gas and service industries. Our user community participants are the only ones who can change the software. People, Ideas & Objects software developers are deaf, dumb and blind to all others. We only listen to our user community. It is the user community member who will form the service provider organizations that provide the process management to the industry when our software is operational. This is a significant business opportunity for the user community participant. These people will have the constant stream of part time revenues that they will earn as a result of their work in the user community. And they will also earn their business income from the service provider that they own and operate. This is the new ERP Information Technology trend and the digital disruption of oil and gas.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Production Discipline

If the market for oil and gas properties has collapsed, which is inevitable, then the last source of cash to the producer has been withdrawn. The next step will be that we need to begin the difficult process of rebuilding the industry stick by stick, and brick by brick. Muddling through, hoping and waiting for the market to rebalance have destroyed everything. There is nothing of value left in which the industry can use to buy time and continue to do nothing. The need for action to remedy the oversupply and overproduction is the only concern that can be on the minds of anyone in the industry. The continued, sustained focus on rebuilding the industry over the short, mid and long term is the only thing that is going to get us through these next few years.

Back in the 1980’s and 1990’s we saw the producers continue with poor financial performance as a result of low oil prices. Gripping constantly about how bad the times were and the effect it had on their financial performance. It’s the only thing you heard. Quarter after quarter, year after year. Nothing was done, ever, to mitigate the overproduction issue then, and nothing has been done so far today. The one big difference between then and now is that it was only oil that suffered from oversupply and overproduction. Natural gas you could live off of. Today natural gas has been depressed for six years with no sign of any break in the difficulties. And oil is moving to its third year of overproduction with only gripping coming out of the producers.

This “muddling through” strategy as it is known in the industry is a strategy of leaving things alone to work themselves out. And we see its not working. As I stated yesterday it only provides value 25% of the time in the industry, the rest of the time it’s devastating to those who chose to participate in any form. I think we need a new approach. One that assumes that the energy that we produce in the 21st century, and the value that oil and gas provide the energy consumer. With its irreplaceability, and the fact that it can not be substituted for anything else. Should we therefore not ensure that we at least produce it profitably? And profitably from the point of view of considering all the costs. Not just the cash costs it takes to produce. The industry has been such a financial disaster for so long that it is managed on the basis of its cash costs. The actual, full costs are never considered because it’s in a state of crisis at all times.

Shale introduces the dichotomy that will permanently keep the industry on its knees. Producers will always pursue the greatest prize that they can. Shale delivers the reserves that make any producer want to earn that untapped fortune that lies in wait. Shale is very expensive which demands production. Shale production is prolific, like the reserves. Without production discipline across the industry, based on profitability, there will be no profitability for anyone. The only means to obtain production discipline is through adoption of People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specifications price maker strategy.

Along with our user community and the service providers we have a plan to deal with the oversupply and overproduction issues and begin the steps toward energy independence on the North American continent. Producers need to participate in that plan in order to survive. I am known for my bold statements. Participation in our plan, it is believed, would enable investors to see that the plan in place provides for the long term profitability of the producer and future expanded deliverability. Something that they are more than interested in participating in.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Take It, It's Free

People should hurry! Chesapeake is giving away their crown jewels! Their Barnett Shale assets were offloaded just to relieve them of the costs of carrying them. I think we will begin to see more of this type of activity as we proceed down this rabbit hole. If it takes cash to produce, and the financial losses are as significant as they are today. Then the value of the assets are really nothing. Those who cherish their bloated balance sheets may be surprised by the fact that the market values their properties at much different valuations than what they’ve recorded them at. Markets and accounting are two different worlds. You need deep reservoirs of cash, strong investors and willing bankers to be in the oil and gas business. That way you can destroy all of them by producing the product.

World Oil reports that private banking is adopting our recommended strategy for their reentry into the oil and gas industry. And no, it's not that I think they’re listening. Purchasing properties on the marketplace at fire sale prices is the preferable strategy as it avoids the accumulated debt and previous equity issues of existing producers. Private equity can then own 100% of the property that they’ve purchased. They will however also have 100% of the cash drainage and losses. They therefore need to acquire the appropriate mechanism to manage those assets and that is the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model with its price maker strategy.

This may be the beginning of the creative destruction that is needed to fix the oversupply and overproduction issues in the industry. Wipe out the old, non-functioning organizations and put in the new dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer. Enabling them to operate with the Preliminary Specification, our user community and the service providers. That way there would never be these periods of destruction that are so common in oil and gas. When did it become acceptable that this level of destruction could occur? This would never be accepted in any other industry. Money is destroyed, people’s careers are destroyed and that is just accepted as part of the normal course of business. That attitude should never exist.

We saw a big bump in the price of oil last week as the Saudi’s made rumblings about a meeting, and as I heard it on Bloomberg, “issued a very official looking press release.” That a meeting will take place in September regarding the price of oil and a possible production freeze. Immediately, like the bright shiny object that it is, it drew everyone in the industry's attention away from the problems. The key point that I think the Saudi’s want the North American producer to learn from these episodes. Which seem to occur with a regularity that I find comical. Is that oil prices do respond to the belief that there will be a change in the market supply of oil. North American producers all sit up at attention when the Saudi’s make some noise about production cuts, why don’t the North American producers learn that if they cut production too, prices would likewise respond.

I have been looking for a signalling event that reflects the time in which the industry entered the point of no return. The time when the industry began its transformation to the new dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable industry. I think Chesapeake dumping their Barnett Shale assets for nothing is that signalling event. That is the point that will stand out in people’s minds that things began to change. Just as Chesapeake was such a critical part of the development of shale.

People, Ideas & Objects have a plan on how to deal with the oversupply and overproduction issues in oil and gas. It is the Preliminary Specification. Our price maker strategy ensures that any production from the continent will be profitable production. Eliminating these destructive periods that seem to occupy 75% of the time in the industry. I’ve been in the industry for 39 years and it's been “good times” for maybe a decade in total. Scattered about during that time for a year or two here and there. I’ve yet to see a producer firm succeed outside of the integrated producers over the long term. A producer has a shelf life of ten to fifteen years and then it's done. It shouldn’t be this way, it doesn’t have to be this way, if I have my way it won’t be this way.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Monday, August 15, 2016

A Detailed Plan

Instead of letting my frustration get the better part of me. Today I’m going to detail People, Ideas & Objects plan and how it is the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer will be able to benefit by subscribing to it in this the third quarter of 2016. My frustration comes about from wanting to solve the problem in the industry today. It is what I’ve been working on for a long time and I think that most people can understand that now is the time that it’s necessary. Forgive me for being human. We are very close to the beginning of the developments of this dynamic change in the industry. My impatience is getting the better of me.

I am of the opinion that producers are in need of some action to deal with the current industry wide situation. That this is a dire crisis that threatens the industry in ways we don’t understand or appreciate at this time. Capital is being withheld from the industry by the investors and bankers as a result of this crisis. In order to secure any capital in the short term, I believe that producers need a plan that deals with this crisis and sets the industry on the road to profitable energy independence on the North American continent. This requires a cultural shift in many of the ways the industry conducts its business. These changes are detailed below. If producers did subscribe to People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification in the third quarter of 2016, by paying 10% of the subscription fee, then they would be able to state that they are part of an industry based plan in their third quarter report. Would this subscription then see investors and bankers return to those subscribing producers on the basis of their willingness to participate in achieving profitable energy independence? I know that doing nothing won’t bring them back.

How we provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable producer with this is through our price maker strategy which involves the decentralized production model of the Preliminary Specification. What we do first of all is reorganize the producer firm and the industry overall. The producer becomes a stripped down version of its current configuration. Where the C class executives, earth science and engineering resources, land and legal, and some support staff make up the configuration of the producer. This enables them to focus on their competitive advantages of their earth science and engineering capabilities, and land and asset base. The administrative and accounting resources are reallocated to service providers who focus on one process and have the entire industry as their client base for that process. This enables them to focus on their key competitive advantages of specialization, division of labor, automation, innovation and quality.

The Preliminary Specification uses the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer. It is the legal, financial, operational decision making, cultural, communication, innovation and strategic framework throughout the industry. The Preliminary Specification moves the compliance and governance frameworks of the hierarchy into alignment with the seven frameworks of the Joint Operating Committee to provide the speed, innovativeness, accountability and profitability that we desire in our organizations.

The service provider will process the work that they do on behalf of the Joint Operating Committee, not the operator. Billing the specific property represented in that Joint Operating Committee. Therefore when the Production or Revenue accountant bills for their services they charge the specific property. The key here is that we have shifted the fixed administrative and accounting costs of each producer to the variable administrative and accounting costs of the industry. Therefore if the property was shut-in due to it being unprofitable. There would be no revenues, royalties, operating costs, or administrative costs. A “null” operation would occur. No profit, but also no loss. Increasing the producers overall profitability by not diluting it with unprofitable properties. Saving the reserves of the unprofitable properties for a time when they can be produced profitably. And removing the unprofitable production from the commodity markets enabling them to seek their overall marginal cost.

What the Preliminary Specification does is move the cost control of the administrative and accounting costs from the producers to the service providers. It is there that at any time they may see a drop of 10 - 15% of their revenues as a result of the industries shut-in inventory of properties. Something that they can budget for on an annual basis.

In a world with high cost and prolific shale. Oil and gas commodities markets will always be overwhelmed as a result of the lack of production discipline in the manner in which the industry is currently operated. People, Ideas & Objects method brings about a solution to the oversupply and overproduction that are plaguing the oil and gas commodity prices today. By simply removing the unprofitable production from the marketplace. A reasonable approach to business. It is however, not collusion as the decisions to shut-in a well is based on the actual, factual accounting of the properties profitability. It is what’s in the producer's best interest to maximize their profitability.

The Preliminary Specification also provides a solution to the resource constraints of the engineers and geologists in the mid to long term. It is a solution that is timely for today’s concerns and is ready for the producers to subscribe to its development. Enabling them to refocus on the task of profitable energy independence.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Friday, August 12, 2016

Third Friday Off

No posting today.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

A Frustrated Diatribe

All the latent value that had been built up in the oil and gas industry over the past decades has now been thrown at the oversupply and overproduction issues. “Hope” appears to be the current solution to the issues throughout the industry. This is also the situation we find ourselves in as People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification is considered to be collusion in the marketplace. And to avoid any appearance of collusion the producers will ensure that they run the industry into the ground. It speaks poorly of the producers that they haven’t the business understanding to see their way through our price maker strategy. Price maker is a technical term in economics. It refers to the characteristics of certain products price behavior in the marketplace. Oil and gas commodities are price makers. Therefore having a strategy that uses that knowledge would be valid for an oil and gas producer. That is what the Preliminary Specification does. It enables the producer to make their own individual, independent decisions at each property based on an actual, detailed accounting of the properties profitability. If it is profitable it produces. If it isn’t, the property is shut-in. In a world where shale exists that is the only way in which we’re going to get out of this difficulty. In order to implement this solution requires the Preliminary Specification.

If we are to believe that anything is going to get us out of this mess. That solution is going to have to be a fully researched and a solid, thought out framework. The business model of the Preliminary Specification achieves that. It is the result of ten years of research based on using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer. It is ready to go and ready to solve the issues of the day. To come up with an alternative that resolves the issues in today’s marketplace would take at least as long and the producers do not have that time. If it is, as I suspect, that the rumors and opinions of those in the industry that the Preliminary Specification is collusion. This conclusion is based on a lack of knowledge. Producers don’t have the time or the means to be delayed in the pursuit of their financial health. False conclusions only delay the adoption of the only solution that is available to the producers. And it doesn’t involve collusion.

The amount of value that is being destroyed on a daily basis makes this catastrophe the most serious issue the oil and gas industry has ever faced. There is no residual value left in the North American producers at this time. It has been consumed by the inane accounting methodology of the SEC that creates this situation. Shale exacerbates the issue into an unresolvable one that can’t be “muddled through.” To assume the Preliminary Specification is collusion, which can only be done through rumor and innuendo, is to short circuit the only solution to the greatest issue the industry has ever faced. People need to wake up and at least read the Preamble.

Shale will always overwhelm the marketplace until the producers obtain production discipline through the use of the price maker strategy of the Preliminary Specification. It is as simple as that. Proof of that is the six years the natural gas marketplace has been depressed by shale gas volumes. It is these shale gas volumes that have also had an impact on the global price of natural gas. Until oil and gas producers move away from the high throughput production model that seeks full production to cover the high cost overhead of their operation. And move to the decentralized production model of the Preliminary Specification where costs more accurately match revenues. Then the industry will remain in the state that it’s in.

My frustration level is through the roof on this. This conclusion that we are colluding means more delays in terms of our project moving forward and the industry can’t afford that time delay. All because someone said something or other about collusion. Where are the rational cool thinkers in the industry who have the decision making power to proceed? Are there any, and if so, what are they doing? It’s time to act, it should be a foregone conclusion that at some point in the near future industry must move towards the Preliminary Specification. What is the alternative?

My reading of the financial statements for the second quarter is that there is a dire situation in the industry. One that if it is unaddressed in the current quarter, significant destruction of the industries capabilities and our capacities will occur in the immediate short term. I believe that the only way in which we can avoid this further destruction is for the industry to receive the capital that is necessary to proceed in its normal course. To do that requires that industry has a plan. A plan to adopt energy independence on the continent. To do so would require the current production base to become profitable and then secondly address the resource constraints in the mid to long term supply of engineers and geologists. Then by having those two elements in place the industry could increase its throughput and move on to profitable energy independence. Seeing this plan the investors and bankers would support the industry and enable it to achieve its goals. That plan is the Preliminary Specification. Otherwise, I think we face a dark future.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Making Oil and Gas Business Decisions

Being on the wrong side of a cash draining organization, I know a few things about them. I guess the one thing that most people understand is the characteristic that momentum seems to build against you and the pit only gets deeper. The cash drain in oil and gas is epic at this time. All of the value that had been built up over the past few decades has been thrown at the problem in order to try to rectify it. Nothing worked. Now the cash drain has nothing left to consume, we have hit the proverbial brick wall in oil and gas. This will get interesting.

But it doesn’t have to. There is a plan that the industry can undertake to pursue profitable energy independence on the continent. All they have to do is subscribe to the Preliminary Specification and we’re on that path. Investors and bankers might want to be involved in that restructuring of the industry and help those producers in achieving their goals. After all that is their role in life. Sitting as the industry is now with the belief that all is well is not fooling anyone with more than a few dollars in life savings. It is clear in reading the second quarter reports that any money provided to these producer organizations will be incinerated in these black holes. It truly is devastating to read them.

I stopped cold calling CEO’s and CFO’s last week as no one was returning my calls. Not that I expected them to but I had to do something. Other than through this blog and our wiki, our message is not being distributed to those decision makers, as far as I know. I “believe” and I “feel” like something is going on. Something that is completely unknown to me. Maybe it's just the belief that these organizations do not have any viable plan to exist much longer. I think that It might also be the rumour that the Preliminary Specification involves collusion has caused this pause in interest.

The road to bankruptcy is not going to provide any producer with any value. In bankruptcy the producers will not be any better off. The judge may approve loans to the producer on favourable terms which is what they do. However, that is when the individual bankruptee needs to be rehabilitated as a result of poor performance through the poor actions of the people involved. As we noted the other day, this is an industry wide problem where the collective effects of other producers impact the bankrupt producer. Loaning more money to an individual bankrupt producer doesn’t mitigate the issues. Banks see that, and their staying away now, just because a judge has granted favourable terms doesn’t mean anything to the banker.

Therefore the unsolvable problem will continue for as long as the producers insist on not accepting the Preliminary Specification as the solution. Persistence is a beneficial characteristic in business. And these producers may be insisting that the Preliminary Specifications price maker strategy is collusion. As I indicate in the Preamble, it’s not collusion. When independent, individual decisions are made to produce or shut-in an individual property. And those decisions are based on a detailed, actual accounting of the property. That is what is called a “business decision.” Something that the producers are missing out on in the industry today. Collusion is when people work within markets themselves to affect prices. The fact that many in the industry think our price maker strategy is collusion shows you the level of discussion of business in the industry today and why we are in the state that we are in.

Continuing on to the third quarter without addressing this financial catastrophe. With natural gas storage potentially being filled just as they were reporting their third quarter results. With oil prices well below what is necessary to cover the cash costs to produce, that scenario is not an option. This would not be the responsible choice for managements to make. That is my opinion. And it can be taken with everyone else’s opinion these days. It seems everyone has an opinion on everything today. The fact is the Preliminary Specification is derived from ten years of research, not opinions. To glance over it on the basis of someone’s rumoured opinion that it is collusion is what passes for comprehensive debate in oil and gas. Instead of facing the music in the third quarter, those that should know should pass on the rumours and cheap opinions and instead read the results of the research. That’s how business decisions can be made.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Right Solution, Right Time, Right Size

There are only a few producers left to publish their second quarter reports. It’s fair to generalize at this time and to state that this is a disaster, no question about it. Reading some of the text of these reports you would think that all is well and it’s business as usual. However, I read in their financial statements that they don’t reflect a viable going concern. Something desperately needs to be done in order to recapitalize and rehabilitate these firms. No one is going to do that without having some understanding of what changes are going to be made to ensure that “this” doesn’t continue. Saying all is well when the industry is in this condition only scares people even more. If you truly don’t see the depth of the difficulties that we are in then we will have more than just the oil and gas industry spiral downwards.

World Oil reports that the debt of the majors has doubled since late 2014. They report that it is at $138 billion, up from $13 billion in 2008 when oil prices were $150. Proof that the energy consumer is being subsidized by investors and bankers. When you’ve been reporting profits from 2008 to 2016 why would your debt balloon ten fold? The simple answer is the accounting that the SEC dictates for oil and gas is inappropriate and it leads to these kinds of distortions. First, this accounting makes it appear that everyone and anyone is profitable. Leading to an overinvestment in the industry. Overinvestment leads to overproduction. This overproduction has collapsed the prices of the commodities. And it was the investors and bankers who until recently supported the producers cash demands, in effect subsidizing the consumers for their energy consumption. The ten fold increase in the Majors debt over the past 8 years is proof of this. They should have received additional revenues of over $138 billion during that time to offset the cash shortfall that they did realize from the low commodity prices. Thier accounting only reflects this after the fact, across the industry in the form of low cash balances in the juniors and intermediates, and high debt levels in the Majors, after investors and bankers refuse any further involvement.

“That giant sucking sound” to quote H. Ross Perot is the investor's cash being vacuumed by this crappy accounting methodology. What we are finally seeing after decades of this is that no one was really earning any money. After all that time we finally have exhausted all of the value that was built up in the industry. And now it stands with nothing. No cash. No working capital. No line of credit. No credit facilities. No willing investors. No profitable operations. No operations that don’t require cash. The entire infrastructure of the North American oil and gas industry is worth $0.02 because it will only drag anyone down with it. And some producers say its sunshine and rainbows? A critical review of the situation is what is needed and urgently.

Many of the producers that I saw were the walking dead. Many. Operations are consuming cash in almost every instance. How is it that producers are claiming they are profitable at $48 or at anything? Only Shell and Exxon reported profits and other than the majors no producer was generating cash from operations. Does anyone see how difficult a situation this is? You have no cash. And producing consumes cash. But if you stop producing the cash consumption will rise significantly leading to a worse situation. So you produce more, leading to further commodity price declines. Many producers had run out of cash and were using the service industry to fund them through accounts payable. Others too were using their working interest partners share to fund them.

Here’s the plan. For the third quarter reports the producers say they have a plan to deal with the situation. The plan is the Preliminary Specification which deals specifically with these problems that are plaguing the producers today. It's not only the right solution at the right time, it is the appropriately sized solution for the scope of the problem. When I published the budget two and half years ago I took a lot of flack for such a “ridiculously high priced software development.” Odd but it seems to be the right sized solution to the problem at hand doesn’t it. By having this plan in hand the producers are able to state that they are a viable going concern, with a real profitable future. One which sees the North American continent become profitably energy independent. Something that investors can get behind and help to build. All the produces have to do is to subscribe to the Preliminary Specification and just send cash.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Monday, August 08, 2016

Leaders Wanted

We begin another week with anticipation that “something” regarding the commencement of our development may be happening in the industry. That producers “may” be doing something about the issues that plague them. Whether there is or not is completely unknown to us at this time. However, this initiative is best served by moving forward as if there was. Our plan involves producers moving towards the objective of profitable energy independence on the continent through development of the Preliminary Specification. We need to move this industry onto a stronger financial footing where it can be the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable industry it needs to be for a prosperous society. We have a natural opening, in terms of time, to begin developments in September. I hope that it’s 2016.

In anticipation of that I am reiterating that we are currently looking for a CFO for People, Ideas & Objects. I’m not going to define the job in this post as most of those that would be interested can determine what the job would entail. The budgeted costs are significant for a startup and we need to start from scratch. That tells you what you need to know. If you’re interested in this position please call me or email at the information below. We will also be looking for our COO who will be heading up the software development of the Preliminary Specification. As with the CFO I’m not going to go into details and you should contact me if you have an interest. Both of these positions will be located in Houston.

We have a long list of positions that we need to fill in the user community organization. From the board of directors, the C suite and our product owners, we are looking for almost 30 people to head up that organization. The product owners are unique in the development of our software. There will be one product owner each for approximately 20 different elements of the software. One for each of the modules of the Preliminary Specification, the user interface, data etc. The product owners are responsible for their product and represent the users to the People, Ideas & Objects developers. Our users will certainly be interacting with our developers, what the product owners will be doing is prioritizing and focusing the developers on the appropriate areas of concern. Ensuring that the overall product is complete and correct. They are leading the users in terms of the development of their area.

These positions make up the leadership team for the development of this software. We are looking to fill all of them as soon as possible. These positions are open to those that have an interest in the development that we are doing and are appropriately qualified. Development of the user community is ongoing and we are looking to secure the numbers that we want to ensure that the applications that we deliver have the product quality that are necessary. This user community has been determined to be 3,000 part time user community participants representing all of the different elements of the oil and gas, and service industries. Once we have these numbers organized we will then be able to commence the software developments of the Preliminary Specification.

In the meantime, anticipating that we are moving forward, we will introduce ourselves to Oracle. Making them aware of the issues and opportunities in the oil and gas industry. Oracle makes up one third of the costs of our budget and we expect that, based on the design of the Preliminary Specification, using their technologies will provide us with a unique competitive advantage, quality in our product offering, mitigate the technical risks associated with the industry's movement to this initiative and overall success. I’m sure they’ll be happy to see us.

I do want to restate something that is in the back of my mind. I hope that people are reading and understanding the entire Preliminary Specification. Understanding your domain is important. It’s familiar and I can understand why someone would focus on that. However an oil and gas producer is an integrated organization with many different parts. Each having a dynamic effect on all the others. Particularly when we use the Joint Operating Committee which is the legal, financial, operational decision making, cultural, communication, innovation and strategic framework of the industry. Knowing only one part of the whole may lead to problems and impact the quality of our product offering if we don’t understand the reasons that others may want or need to have something done differently than what we expect. Understanding others perspective can be helpful, and this can be mitigated by the users ensuring they have a substantially rounded and comprehensive understanding of the Preliminary Specification.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Friday, August 05, 2016

What Motivates You?

September would be a good time to start development of some software don’t you think? I certainly do. It would provide us with a point in time where everyone’s focus is on getting back to work and getting things done. Summer’s over, the kids are in school and it's a good time to take on those big projects. We certainly qualify there. People, Ideas & Objects are ready to go. That is to say we’ve been ready for a while. Just need the commitment of industry and their cash and we’re off. Implementing our plans for the development of our software will be done as quickly as we can harness the minds of our user community. We’ve been at this user community development for two and half years now and have achieved significant progress based on the facts that we are user community based software development and the structure of our user community.

I’ve been cold calling the CFO’s and CEO’s of the producers to let them know about our plan for profitable energy independence. The lines seem to be dead. I have also reached out to my press contacts and the Internet must be down as well. I’ve never experienced a shutout such as this. Nothing. Zip. I would usually consider, based on these cold calls, that nothing would be done in the month of September. However, my feeling is that something is going on. Producers can’t continue on in the manner that they have. Both commodity markets are destroyed. The capital markets are destroyed. They can’t raise any substantial amount of money to operate their firms. And their firms are hemorrhaging cash at record speed. Time is of the essence. They have no choice, in my opinion, then to act.

The status quo is no longer a viable option. To come up with an idea on how to solve this problem at this time is impossible. Trust me on that, it doesn’t take a lot of money, but it takes a lot of time. Decades. Therefore some new idea is not an option. And the alternative that I’m offering is that the industry could be developing software based on the Preliminary Specification next month. All they need to do is to commit to us and send cash.

Doing so would open a world of opportunities for the producers. Investors and bankers, seeing a viable going concern in the long run, with a plan for significant upside in terms of profitable energy independence on the continent. Would be interested in a profitable producer that’s in that situation. All the producer would have to do would be to commit to us and send cash. Of course they know that we would keep them from sliding back from their commitments and regressing to their old ways. We need them as much as they need us. That probably goes without saying, but I said it anyways.

I’ve been at this for a long time. The number of people that have read the Preliminary Specification are unknown to me at this time. I’m assuming some people must have dozed off along the way. Most people focus on the module that they’re most acquainted with. I think you need to read the entire Preliminary Specification. The number of people who have read this blog over the past ten years, with its monomaniacal discussion of the development of ERP systems for oil and gas producers based on the Joint Operating Committee, is significant. It’s not that I’m invisible. I know the effects of my efforts in terms of promotion in the pre-Internet days when I worked with Oracle and Price Waterhouse. Pushing paper out is wholly inefficient when you compare it to the power of the internet to spread your ideas.

I think potential user community participants should be spit polishing their applications for submission to People, Ideas & Objects. Now you can probably imagine the number of people who said I was crazy over these past few decades. So you need to judge for yourself in terms of our projects viability. But without people telling you you’re crazy, what motivation is there?

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Thursday, August 04, 2016

This is About Leadership

Winston Churchill once said that you can always count on the Americans to do the right thing. After they’ve tried everything else.

There doesn’t seem to be much discussion coming from the producers regarding plans for the future. It is more of the same with some details of how the producer will survive the next few years. Selling properties seems to be the chosen method of raising cash. It may be the only way to raise any cash in this environment. With most of the proceeds dedicated to paying off the debt that will be coming due in the short term. A reasonable plan until one asks where the money for these asset purchases are going to come from? The old economic principle of supply and demand may create some disparity between prices of the buyer and the seller. This being what is classically called a buyer's market.

The other day I asked why is selling People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification so difficult. After years of hearing about “market rebalancing” you would have thought resolution of the issue would have been achieved by now. How many trillions of dollars have been wasted by hoping that it’ll work soon. The capital structure of the industry is now destroyed in addition to both commodity markets. Investors and bankers looking at the industry are never going to invest in this place the way it is today. The people who work in oil and gas and the service industry, and those that have been forced out, are questioning their choice of industry to work for. If the industry thought it had resource constraints before, the future looks dismal. Is muddling through really the best way to run the operation?

What we will learn in this next quarter is the myth that is the “strong” and “protected” balance sheets. The ones that were so prized and cherished are really useless and redundant. What good were they then, and what good are they now? Bloated balance sheets are great when you want to take on loads of money from investors and bankers. That would be their primary purpose. The problem with them today is that they account for the legacy costs of spending that occurred over the past decades and now represent the people who want to see something for the money they put into the firm. How does that relate to “strong” and “protectable.”

This isn’t a crisis this is wholesale destruction of the business and the industry. Hoping for change is what politicians sell. Plans are what businesses need to deal with the issues of the day and provide guidance for the future. What is the plan of the producers and the industry today? I don’t see anything because there is nothing. I have the plan that is needed for the industry in the Preliminary Specification. It deals specifically with the overproduction and oversupply issues, and resource constraints in the earth science and engineering disciplines. Setting out the objective of energy independence on the continent. Producers who subscribe to our software development by paying 10% of their subscription fees by August 31, 2016 can state that they have a plan, the Preliminary Specification, to deal with these industry wide problems in their third quarter reports. I’m sure investors and bankers can get behind that.

I started these software developments in 1991. It was different back then, very different. I started in 1992 with a comprehensive joint development agreement with Oracle Corporation. We were to bring a solution to the market that addressed the needs of the oil and gas producers. For a variety of reasons that did not happen. We shifted our developments to Price Waterhouse's PW/SQL product offering in June of 1997. And in October of 1997 we were the odd man out in the Price Waterhouse, Coopers and Lybrand merger. Nonetheless I began these developments early this century and published the proposal for the Preliminary Research Report in August 2003. In May 2004 the Preliminary Research Report, with the conclusion that the Joint Operating Committee was the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer was published. I then undertook ten years of research to determine what the producer and industry would need to operate when using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct. There is a significant amount of history in my attempts to bring this solution to this market. At no time have I ever received any support from industry.

If you think as a producer that the Preliminary Specification isn’t for you then fine. Start with your own idea and plan and we’ll see you in 25 years. The reality is that you can execute within your organization at 100% and still fail due to the collective actions of other producers. This failed business model of muddling along has to be trashed before the industry is trashed.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Wednesday, August 03, 2016

"This" Will Never End

A short history lesson will have us recall oil prices hitting $26 and the producers banking on “market rebalancing” to clear the situation. Their claim was that the cause of low commodity prices was self correcting and these low prices would quickly lead to higher prices. Then the surge in oil pricing allowed producers to claim that they were profitable at even $30 oil, but when it hit $52, there was no talking to them, all was well. People, Ideas & Objects suggested otherwise and stated that the prices would resume their downward trend in a short period of time. That no producer was profitable at $48. That the cash situation in the industry, with very low and sometimes negative gross margins on production, and the past debt and equity commitments totalling over $200 / barrel. The producers were in a state of denial to state that they were profitable and were in fact in a very desperate cash situation. Now with the second quarter reports we find that the cash situation in the industry is even worse than I thought it would be. Profitability doesn’t exist anywhere except in Exxon and Shell. And there isn’t a hint that “market rebalancing” will take effect soon as oil prices spiral down to $39.

What we have is a business model that is used in the industry that is flawed and broken. Just as in the late 1980’s and 1990’s production by the producers will continue no matter what the situation happens to be. This overproduction and oversupply, as a result of this broken business model, will never end. That was proven in the 1980’s and 1990’s with the depth and length of that downswing in oil prices. Commonly known as the muddling along strategy this business model is the standard operating procedure for all producers. When we add the age of abundance in terms of oil and gas from the shale reservoirs. We have the total destruction of the industry. This issue is resolved in the Preliminary Specification and is available to the industry.

Why do I have such difficulty making the sale with respect to this software development project? It just boggles my mind that I have such heated conversations about such obtuse things. I am not the one that caused this situation. I am the one with the solution, and we have a value proposition in the trillions of dollars. If we continue on in the fashion that we are at this time the investors and bankers will never come back and the industry will fall backwards in terms of its capabilities for decades. We are very close to this happening now. It won’t take too much more destruction to start harming the capabilities that we have come to rely on in the industry. If you haven’t grasped the seriousness of the situation yet. Then there is no use talking to you.

One source of cash that producers have leaned on heavily in these second quarter reports is the expectation that the service industry will fund any field activity. That, to me, in the situation that the oil and gas industry is in, is a despicable act. Another form of cash that is becoming evident in these second quarter reports is the ballooning volume of accounts receivable. Partners are not paying their working interest statements in a timely manner. How many times have we seen a producer start to do this for one or two months before they close the doors. Withholding the net proceeds of the property to the rightful owners of the property, or not paying their working interest distributions are also despicable acts.

But what should we expect. Cash is everything. If you analyze any of the cash generated from operations you will find that the producers did not generate any real cash from the operation itself. Operations, royalties and overheads took all of the money. That doesn’t include the costs of capital, that’s just some of the money that went out the door. Every producer that I have seen have drawn vast amounts of cash from their cash balances, bank lines of credit, or if they have any, asset sales or investors. The consumption of cash is epic. The healthy firms appear to have about a year left of this crisis in terms of cash. Many are at the end of their rope.

Has anyone else noted that the deliverability of oil and gas is down. Yet in both cases of oil and gas the inventories are up and at record levels. This issue of overproduction and oversupply is not going to be remedied in the near term if this is the sixth year in natural gas and the third year for oil. It will take a generation before the overproduction and oversupply is resolved by the existing producers. This is the information which has the investors chompin at the bit! Bankers are swarming the producers with offers on the basis of this knowledge!

We don’t have the time or resources to survive a generation! People, Ideas & Objects have a plan for the industry for the next 25 years that sees the investors and bankers potentially restarting their participation with the producers tomorrow. They will do this if they see a viable plan to achieve energy independence in Canada and the U.S. in oil and gas. First we have to make the existing production profitable. We then have to deal with the long term shortfall of earth science and engineering people. And then we can profitably increase the deliverability on the continent to achieve energy independence. That plan is the Preliminary Specification. Take a week or so to read it. It sure is better than reading these second quarter reports.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Tuesday, August 02, 2016

The Integrated's Too

The difficulties being experienced in oil and gas are affecting even the large integrated producers. This is a bit of a surprise to most, including me, these firms have their downstream operations to balance out any difficulties that they may experience in the upstream end of the business. The scope of the cash crisis in the upstream end of the oil and gas sector is now dragging down these large integrated operations as well. BP and Chevron even reported multi billion dollar losses for the quarter. It was very interesting to hear what the CEO’s had to say about these reports. Most specifically Shell’s CEO Ben van Beurden stated he “wants to turn Shell into the best oil company for investor returns.” To me that sounds remarkably like our claim that we provide the oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Which is what our Preliminary Specification does. But it also implies that he understands the impact of our claim in his organization.

Shell, BP, Chevron and Exxon have unquestionably the best assets in the oil and gas business. For that their is no doubt. They also have the best people. They have the scope and scale of operation that provide them with the secure base in which they can invest in their human resources for the long term. Few organizations can approach the situation that way. They also have access to the best forms of financing in the world. Whether that is debt or equity, they have the credit rating and depth of shareholder pool to do what it is they need to do for the next 30 years without much concern for financing. Few companies have achieved this level of success. Yet with all of this they are unable to earn a profit in BP and Chevron’s case and Shell and Exxon’s instances were some of the worst in their history. How could this be? Have they not executed their business plans and strategies effectively?

Simply you could have done all that you could have done in the best organizations in the industry and still been unable to make a go of it in oil and gas. In many ways Shell, BP, Chevron and Exxon have done nothing wrong and everything right. And that could be stated for every other producer in the business. It is the collective work of all of the producers in the industry that is working against each individual producer that is causing the problems. Overproduction as a result of the producers assumption that oil and gas is a scarce resource. Is the predominant thinking that was was necessary in the 20th century. In the 21st century there are new rules that need to be understood. One is that the age of resource abundance is upon us. And it's not enough to own the oil and gas asset, it's also necessary to have access to the software that makes the oil and gas asset profitable.

The understanding that I think Shell’s CEO has of our claim of being the most profitable means of oil and gas operations is that his assets are the best, his people are the best, and his access to capital is the best and therefore he is going to be able to provide investors with a better return than anyone else. And that is the right interpretation of our claim of the most profitability. Just because we provide the most profitable means of oil and gas operations does not guarantee that every producer is going to profitable. They may have profitable production, however it maybe just profitable in comparison to what Shell or some upstart may be able to provide. They may be a poor competitor in terms of the earth science and engineering capabilities or their land and asset base. Their competitive cost structures may be so costly and unproductive it takes their profitable production outside of a profitable commercial enterprise. The point is that profitability is a relative thing. And there will be producers who will not make it in the industry even with the Preliminary Specification operational. However, what we will know when the Preliminary Specification is operational is that all of the industries production was produced profitably and any properties that did not meet their marginal costs were shut-in as a result. Keeping the industry's profits as high as could be by not diluting them with any unprofitable properties producing. That those unprofitable properties shut-in reserves are being saved for a time when they can be produced profitably. And the commodity marketplace is priced at the marginal cost and the investors, producers and consumers are receiving a fair and equitable price in terms of energy.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Monday, August 01, 2016

Civic Holiday

.No posting today

Friday, July 29, 2016

Culture Trumps Strategy

We will never attain energy independence until all production is profitable. Profits must drive the investment that brings about the increase in the continents deliverability. Investors and bankers don’t have enough cash to achieve that goal of energy independence with today's producers. They have run out of money and patience and are on the sidelines. They see the culture of the industry has been to use other people’s money to subsidize the consumers of oil and gas and they are tired of being the other people. A healthy industry, generating real profits will provide a good return for its investors. It will enable the industry to pay back its bankers. And it will generate the funds necessary to expand the industry based on the opportunities that are put before it. That is how healthy industries operate. The way that the oil and gas industry has been managed for these past four decades has not been healthy. It has been unable to do any of these things. And now finds itself with a culture of managing the business with no respect for the business elements.

Put that down as another bold statement stated here for the first time. Add it to my long list of such statements. The war between accountants and engineers has been a classic battle raging on in oil and gas for these past four decades. Engineers, and to a lesser extent geologists, run the show. Those that are good at what they do rise to the top as they should. The business of the oil and gas business is an applied science and there can only be a scientist running the show. I’ve been in the business for 39 years and I can guarantee you that I would run an oil and gas producer into the ground in very short order. I don’t understand engineering. I’d like to understand engineering. My son is a chemical engineer, but he only laughs at my lack of understanding. It’s a discipline like no other, you either understand it or you don’t.

Which makes the engineer omnipotent in oil and gas. When an accountant raises a point about the inappropriate methods of capitalization policies in the industry. And the engineer knows that the SEC dictates the use of the ones the accountant is criticizing, the accountant only loses more credibility in the eyes of the engineer. Over four decades accountants have lost a lot of credibility in the eyes of the engineers in oil and gas. Mark this up as another disaster brought to us by the inappropriate policies of the SEC.

Profitability can only be achieved when the costs of production are recognized in a timely and appropriate manner. By deferring the costs of capital to the balance sheet for the life of the firm, which is what the SEC model does, you never recognize the real cost of production. Therefore your profits are overstated. In a capital intensive industry they are severely overstated. Making things in the industry appear much healthier than they are. The proof that this was happening was the evidence that the industry never generated any cash. The only cash that the industry ever had was the new money that came in from the investors and the bankers. The culture was that you would always have another share issuance each and every year. You had to in order to keep the doors open. Now the money doesn’t come in and the game is exposed for what it is and the credibility of the industry is shot.

The only way that I can see us moving forward is to adopt the plan that is inherent in the Preliminary Specification. Turn the industry into a profit generator. Real profits, not the funny accounting profits of the SEC. Fix the long term supply issues of the resource base of geologists and engineers and then use that enhanced capability to approach energy independence. In that way we can get out of this situation quickly and effectively. Move to a new basis of operation in the industry. And build for tomorrow.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Timing

We have been discussing the situation in the oil and gas industry and how the Preliminary Specification is able to assist producers at this time. Giving producers the opportunity to address the issues of over production and poor performance. Action by producers to deal with these difficulties may provide the opportunity for the producer to participate once again in the investment and banking communities. Having a plan such as what the Preliminary Specification enables, may provide a foundation for the future in which the investment community can build upon.

It is at this point that People, Ideas & Objects can commence developments of the Preliminary Specification effective September 1, 2016. This will focus on the completion of the development of our user community. Producers who subscribe to these developments by paying their subscription fees before then will be able to state that they are part of this plan to move the industry towards the objective of continental energy independence. The first phase of this plan being the reorganization of the industry towards profitability. By paying 10% of the People, Ideas & Objects subscription fee producers would be able to state they are part of this plan for their third quarter reports. Providing their investors and bankers with the assurance that things are being done to correct the issues in the industry. And potentially opening the market for new investments and loans.

This strategy is being discussed with CEO’s and CFO’s at this time. Cold calling is highly ineffective and producers that find this strategy appealing should call me directly. Time is of the essence and we have much to do. A unique characteristic of the Preliminary Specification is that in order to gain many of the key value attributes is that your working interest partners will need to be on the system as well.

I’m sure we’ll run into everybody's favourite tool in the technical industry, that being the Service Level Agreement. It is important at this point to reiterate that People, Ideas & Objects and our user community do not use Service Level Agreements. Producers who have specific needs in terms of what they want and need in the applications that we are providing them will need to work directly with our user community. People, Ideas & Objects are deaf, dumb and blind to everyone and everything other than our user community. We only build the applications that are as a result of their efforts. Talking to us, or raising your concerns through a Service Level Agreement will not be the method for dealing with your needs. With that in mind it will be my privilege to invoice those producers who do subscribe to our development and participate with our user community.

There is substantial interest in our user community. Those people who are interested are encouraged to complete their applications in a timely fashion. Time is of the essence here as well. In terms of our ability to deliver our systems to our subscribing producers, the user communities development is the impediment in terms of the time that we deliver our product. This is why we have been working for the past two and one half years on the user communities development. It is our priority and the key to the quality of our systems. We are user focused software developments and we are never going to compromise on this priority.

We're here now. Here being the end of the beginning of People, Ideas & Objects. I'm pleased to have been able to bring this opportunity to the industry, the user community, our service providers and anyone else. We can make a big difference in the quality of life of everyone in Canada and the U.S. for many years to come. Energy is critical to our standard of living. And I don't think there’s any more important place to be.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

OMG!!!

As they say in texts. My use of the term is in reference to what I'm seeing in these second quarter reports. I thought they would be bad, as I suggested last Friday. However, I think I’m shocked at how bad the situation is. Even well managed companies are being put in jeopardy as a result of this crisis. My analysis of the situation is as follows. And although I could be accused of selling my book, I have been arguing these points for years and the issues are specifically addressed in the Preliminary Specification. This argument has gone on too long and the situation has gone too far.

The source of the issue is the results of inappropriate accounting dictated by the SEC for the past four decades. Specifically Full Cost and Successful Efforts. This accounting has created the appearance of a profitable, well capitalized industry when in reality it never was. This accounting fuelled over investment that has lead to the overproduction that we now have. The industry operated on other people's money and was never sustainable on its own. After four decades it is culturally ingrained within the industry, and these issues were therefore unseen by most. Now that the investors and bankers have ceased their investment activities, and due to the inevitable poor performance, this crisis is now clearly evident.

Cash is truly king. General field operations, in all instances that I saw, consumed cash. In some cases producers relied heavily on the service industry to fund this cash shortfall. Negative working capital has always been the status quo in oil and gas. It therefore wasn't long for it to degrade to disaster proportions when the regular capital injections ended. Another contributing factor to this problem was the diminished role that hedging played in helping the producer through these times. Those hedges at handsome prices have all but expired and now producers are fully exposed to the commodity price declines. In many of the company's, revenues can only be described as evaporating. Losing up to 50% from the first quarter of 2016!

The market for acquisitions and divestitures was very quiet through the quarter. With the lack of cash and available investment that might be understood. It could also be a pricing issue with a purchaser unwilling to pay high prices for an asset that subsequently consumes cash.

Generally field operations were cash neutral at best across the industry. When everything was considered, reported losses were in excess of those reported for the same period in 2015. Which was unquestionably the worst year ever in the industry. Layoff notices, which started with Conoco, may hit fever pitch once there are enough announcements that a producer can hide their announcement in a crowd of layoff notices.

There has been a lot of discussion regarding “protecting” or “strengthening” the balance sheet. These discussions are disingenuous and push the envelope of what is acceptable. My argument, as I stated above, is that accounting for capital assets has caused this problem. Capitalizing every penny you spend and keeping it on the balance sheet for decades is only permitted by the SEC in oil and gas. In other industries the inverse situation, of the firm rarely being able to capitalize any of its costs, is the SEC’s prescribed methodology.

I therefore look at the producer from the point of view that the assets have been bloated over time and are stratospherically overstated. I would also argue that with none of the field operations generating any cash, with all of the producers losing money and with no plans to deal with the situation. We should correct for these by writing off the remaining net balance of property, plant and equipment. Doing so puts the producer in the right context to the situation that the industry is in. This is an accurate reflection of the difficulties that we are faced with, and is acceptable in my opinion. The entire North American continents asset base appears to be unsustainable. Therefore what value other than $0.00 can you assign to it.

“Market rebalancing” has failed as the commodity prices begin to fade from systemic overproduction once again. If producers don't address these issues immediately they will seriously damage their organization. Acting as if all is well is putting lipstick on a pig. Investors and bankers can see what's going on and would be unwilling to front any money to a delusional industry with no plan to solve its real problems. People, Ideas & Objects our user community and the service providers have a plan that deals with these difficulties. Producers need to call me in order that they can subscribe.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

What If?

Our “plans” first step toward energy independence on the continent is to turn the current deliverability of oil and gas profitable. That involves producers subscribing to the Preliminary Specification, our user community and the service providers. A somewhat difficult task in that it involves separating people from their money. Money that is in tight supply in the industry. I wonder however, if the industry had “a plan” on how to deal with the industry's difficulties, would that shake the investors and bankers cash free? Would they then begin to invest in the producers seeing that there was some upside possibilities in terms of profitability and increased throughput? People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers “plan” poses an interesting dilemma to the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer.

The status quo isn’t working and it hasn’t displayed any hints that it will begin to work, ever. Recent drawdowns in the oil inventories in the United States appear to be more related to the high driving demand and increased gasoline inventories. Global overproduction appears to be continuing as tankers in Europe are continuing to be filled for temporary storage. Iran’s ability to increase their throughput has been somewhat impressive and they claim to be able to increase their productivity much further. It could be years before the end of the oil price difficulties clear based on the willful destruction of our deliverability. Or as they say in the industry, “market rebalancing.” On the natural gas side, the storage facilities continue to fill and are sitting at record levels. It’s summer so the injections are not that high but they continue to increase by at least 5 bcf per day. Expect to see the storage capacity breached in late September.

Our “plan” provides for the changes that are needed in the industry. Granted I have been particularly abusive to the bureaucrats. That didn’t seem to motivate them to remove me from their blacklist. A list I was put on in August of 2003 when I published the Preliminary Research report identifying the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the producer. I admit I have put a few noses out of joint, however the time to work together to fix this situation is upon us. It is this dynamic “relationship” that I would point to and would ask the readers of this blog for some help. If you feel comfortable doing so, please call me and we can work together to have your firm included in the group of producers that are working on the Preliminary Specification.

I would assert that the industry needs People, Ideas & Objects et al in order to move forward. Having a plan is the necessary ingredient to putting some credibility back into the industry in terms of ensuring that the shareholders and debtors will be well taken care of. As it stands I don’t see them changing their minds and coming back into the industry in adequate volumes to make any difference to the current situation. That current situation being the massive drainage of cash that is systemic and unrelenting. Publication of the producers financial statements each quarter will continue to push the investors away if they don’t see any plan to deal with this situation. They won’t volunteer to put any additional money down this sinkhole. And as we have indicated here before the banks have changed the methodology on how they grant loans to oil and gas producers based on the revised guidelines that were issued by the U.S. Fed. They don’t recognize reserves anymore, they only evaluate the ability to pay the loan back. Which means most bankers will never look at an oil and gas producer again.

Time is of the essence. Producers do not have that much cash to continue with operations without having to seriously slash and burn to survive. I think a lifeline will be granted if the industry can show they have “a plan” to become energy independent on the continent. By first becoming profitable, dealing with the resource constraints in the industry and then expanding that deliverability that shale reserves enable. That is how we get out of this. Call me.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here