21st Century Markets - Our User Community, Podcast # 36
As I mentioned in Tuesday’s blog post, the two Artificial Intelligence hosts distance themselves from the content of the paper I published, largely due to the direct criticism directed at the officers and directors of producer firms.
Over the next few years, the scale and depth of the destruction authored by these individuals will become increasingly apparent. What will also become clear is the inadequacy of the industry’s response. Under normal circumstances, when an industry is called upon to step up its effort and deliver, it would be expected to leverage the value accumulated over prior decades. That accumulated value would provide the foundation from which new opportunities could be pursued and incremental value realized.
The difficulty with oil & gas is that there is no remaining value available to leverage. It has been squandered, dissipated, and leaked out of the industry.
Producers appear to believe they will simply resume normal operations once investors back the money trucks up to the loading dock again. What they do not appear to understand is that investors now expect profitable organizations. How profitability is achieved, why it is necessary, and how it is sustained still seems to escape them. Confident in their existing outlook, producers continue to believe that changes to their overhead methodology or organizational structures are unnecessary. The language of “building balance sheets” and “putting cash in the ground,” along with other less offensive variations of the same thinking, will likely experience a resurgence in popularity.
Synallagi’s position is different. In a capital-intensive industry such as oil & gas, capital should be the predominant cost passed to the consumer through the commodity price. If a producer’s Property, Plant, and Equipment balance were reduced to $0.00, that would not only be regulatorily compliant; it would also indicate that the producer had become highly competitive. There would be no remaining capital cost to price into the commodity. All production would be profitable. And a producer would have the independence of thought to pursue their own direction.
People, Ideas & Objects believes it is in producers’ best interests to ensure their capital performs on a basis competitive with the North American capital markets. When capital is properly costed into the commodity price, the cash incurred to secure the asset is returned to the producer. That capital can then be redeployed repeatedly, pay dividends or retire debt. Profits are the hard work of determining what performs, how to make it perform, and what does not perform. In other words, actual, factual accounting is a tool for engineers and geologists to commercially tune their projects performance.
The other aspect of the podcast that requires clarification is how Synallagi treats capital. At 19:18 in the podcast, the female voice states:
“Capital must be recognized, passed through to the token holders and recouped quickly so it can be redeployed back into the economy.”
If I were rewriting that script, it would read:
“Capital must be recognized, passed through to the consumer, and redeployed back into the producer firm for capital expenditures, dividends, and the retirement of debt.”
The distinction is material. The capital cost is ultimately borne by the consumer, who pays the full replacement cost of the commodity. Token holders, as described in the podcast scenario, would not incur that cost. Nor would they be interested in an investment structure that required them to pay twice, only to receive the 1% return described by the presenter. The actual return to token holders would depend on their skill, judgment, understanding of oil & gas, and historical costs.
Those are the podcast errors that should be noted.
The practical difficulty with NotebookLM is what I would call the 95% rule. It may get 95% of the material correct on the first run. However, when a second version is generated, the system often assumes the first version needs to be reinterpreted. It then moves in a different direction, where the error rate can increase rather than decline. For that reason, it is often necessary to accept the initial run, correct the material points manually, and recognize the immense value of the tool despite its limitations.
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