Showing posts with label Entrepreneurial. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Entrepreneurial. Show all posts

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Langlois, Return of the Entrepreneur Part I

We now turn to the final chapter "The Return of the Entrepreneur" in Professor Richard Langlois' book "The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism". What we are doing by moving to the Joint Operating Committee is recognizing the partnership of the property that is held by various oil and gas firms. Moving away from the traditional "corporate" perspective of dealing with the compliance and governance of one producing firm owning many interests in many JOC's. Firms will continue to hold many interests in many JOC's, however, the JOC is a stand alone entity operating in the manner of its multi-firm ownership structure. This latter form of organization has persisted, in my opinion, as a result of the history of management and the development of Information Technologies that were not mature. Langlois notes:
And there are certainly examples of this. But it is also possible that a structure of organization can persist because of “path dependence.” A structure can be self-reinforcing in ways that make it difficult to switch to other structures. For example, the nature of learning within a vertically integrated structure may reinforce integration, since learning about how to make that structure work may be favored over learning about alternative structures. A structure may also persist simply because the environment in which it operates is not rigorous enough to demand change. And organizations can sometimes influence their environments — by soliciting government regulation, for instance — in ways that reduce competitive rigors. p. 58
We are on auto-pilot with respect to how the industry is structured and managed. Use of technology is based on the 1980's version of what a network was, a stand-alone hierarchy. The Internet as a tool has not even begun to impact the myopic structure of an oil and gas firm. With the power and connectivity of the Internet, why are partnerships, which are systemic in the oil and gas industry, not operated as partnerships? Bureaucracies are what brought us to this point, not what will take us to the next level.

From internal to external capabilities: the new economy.

By the 1980s, the large corporation that had looked inevitable and invincible in the 1950s and 1960s had become an organizational structure increasingly misaligned with economic realities — and an organization in the process of redefining itself. As those economies revived and trade began expanding by the 1970s, the easy life was coming to an end. Indeed, by the 80s and 90s, the image of invincibility had been virtually replaced by its opposite. As Mark Roe notes, “the image of the corporation as a sweating and not-always successful competitor has become more vivid” (Roe 1996, p. 106). p. 65
Except in oil and gas. In this next quotation Langlois argues that organizational change is driven by the rewards and potential rewards given to the competitors who make the change. He argues further, that as the rewards increase, the probability of changes increase. Naturally I agree with that statement, however, with the substantial increase in oil and gas commodity prices it would be reasonable to assume the increased motivation to change would be true. I think that the rewards of inaction have been greater for management. Higher profits due to commodity price increases have masked the true state of affairs in oil and gas. In essence management have used pricing as the evidence of their superior management skills, when in reality, they have provided zero or even negative value generation. As time passes and the overall deliverability of the firms production declines, we will know the effect of management.
Ruttan and Hayami (1984) have proposed a theory of institutional change that is relevant to my story of organizational-and-institutional change. As they see it, changes in relative scarcities, typically driven by changes in technology, create a demand for institutional change by dangling new sources of economic rent before the eyes of potential institutional innovators. Whether change occurs will depend on whether those in a position to generate it — or to block it — can be suitably persuaded. Since persuasion typically involves the direct or indirect sharing of the available rents, the probability of change increases as the rents increase. And the more an institutional or organization system becomes misaligned with economic realities, the more the rents of realignment increase. My argument is that these changes in technology and markets opened up attractive rent-seeking possibilities that could be seized only by breaking down or “unbundling” the vertical structure of the managerial corporation. p. 66
In addition to the lack of development in organizational structures in oil and gas. The oil and gas companies management have focused their efforts on field level innovations. Instead of sponsoring and supporting the next innovative Packers Plus or People, Ideas & Objects they vilify them for their forethought. Having secured 100% of the proceeds of oil and gas sales permits them to control all aspects of the development of the industry. Instead of focusing on the key value generating competitive advantages of the firm, their earth science and engineering capabilities, they involve themselves in a process of divine selection of which friends of theirs will receive the benefits of their budgets. As time passed and the cycle of feast or famine continued in shorter and shorter cycles, the service industries continued to atrophy due to a lack of financial resources or people willing to work in oil and gas. The results of this "management" are in plain sight in the Gulf of Mexico. Everyone is at fault and no one can do anything. Instead, what we need to be doing is something along the lines of what Langlois notes here.
When a modular product is imbedded in a decentralized production network, benefits also appear on the supply side (Langlois and Robertson 1992). For one thing, a modular system opens the technology up to a much wider set of capabilities. Rather than being limited to the internal capabilities of even the most capable Chandlerian corporation, a modular system can benefit from the external capabilities of the entire economy. External capabilities are an important aspect of the “extent of the market,” which encompasses not only the number of possible traders but also the cumulative skill, experience, and technology available to participants in the market. Moreover, because it can generate economies of substitution (Garud and Kumaraswamy 1995) or external economies of scope (Langlois and Robertson 1995), a modular system is not limited by the weakest link in the chain of corporate capabilities but can avail itself of the best modules the wider market has to offer. Moreover, an open modular system can spur innovation, since, in allowing many more entry points for new ideas, it can create what Nelson and Winter (1977) call rapid trial-and-error learning. From the perspective of the present argument, however, the crucial supply side benefit of a modular production network is that it provides an additional mechanism of buffering. p. 70
What I see in oil and gas is not the dynamic and innovative industry that it should be. I see the scope of the problems facing the industry escalating exponentially, and the capacity to deal with the day-to-day operations fading. A desperate situation that is made worse by a management that ceased to be effective decades ago. As hard as I have tried to secure funding for these developments, the past seven years have been frightening and shocking. We are quickly coming to a point where the ability of the industry to increase or even maintain its production deliverability is irretrievably lost. I can certainly say that I have done everything that I could to make this situation right.

We have two choices in how we approach the future deliverability of the oil and gas industry. We can continue to throw money at the situation, as BP is doing. Or we can re-organize ourselves to approach the problem in a different fashion. I think the challenges that we face are significant and there is no more important commodity then oil and gas is to society. I vote we re-organize.

Our appeal should be based on these eight "Focused on" priorities and values of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not initially be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are. If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.

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Thursday, May 27, 2010

Langlois Personal Capitalism Part I

In Chapter 3 of Professor Langlois book "The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism" we look at "Personal Capitalism". In this, and my next post, I want to highlight the role of the entrepreneur in making the changes in the oil and gas industry. The Community of Independent Service Providers (CISP), Industrial Districts (ID), Business Groups (BG) or Small Knowledge Intensive Enterprises (SKIE) being filled with individual entrepreneurs acting in innovative and value generating ways. What becomes clear in this chapter is that the evolutions an industry goes through are usually brought about by unseen changes. I think that the unseen changes that the oil and gas industry will soon be faced with is the prospective decline in deliverability. This may appear to be an industry problem, but I think it is more of a societal issue in that reducing our energy demand will be problematic.

The bureaucracies that are in power today are unwilling to address the overall deliverability issue as theirs. If a producers production profile declines, they see that as a remote possibility and that would qualify as an isolated single event. If there is a potential decline of overall industry production, producers are unwilling to comment on the probability and don't see that as their problem. If unseen dangers lead to changes in an industries makeup, oil and gas might be in for a shake-up.

Nonetheless a decline, if it should occur, will be difficult to stop and impossible to reverse based on the current performance of the oil and gas firms. Five years of static deliverability is an ominous pre-cursor to a potential decline. The passing of these five years would seem to date how far behind the curve we are. With years of software development before we can exploit the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the People, Ideas & Objects software application. We have much work to do. This morning the Obama administration have announced a six month moratorium on all offshore drilling. This may be the straw that breaks the Camel's back in terms of the U.S. energy consumption.

If one was willing to bet which group, the bureaucrats or the entrepreneurs will be the ones that solve this deliverability issue, I put my money with the entrepreneurs. Professor Langlois analyses Schumpeter's definition of the term.
The broad outlines of Schumpeter’s theory of entrepreneurship are of Weberian provenance (Carlin 1956). Indeed, one might say that Schumpeter’s schema is an application of Weber’s social theory to the problem of economic growth. Schumpeter’s innovation is to associate Weber’s category of charismatic leadership with the concept of entrepreneurship. p. 32
Weber is principally concerned with the religious leader or prophet, and to a lesser extent with military and political leadership; Schumpeter borrows heavily from that analysis in his characterization of the entrepreneur. Here we begin to see the outlines of Schumpeterian “personal capitalism,” which in its pure form is the antithesis of bureaucratic organization. Consider Weber’s account of the organization of charisma. p. 32
The corporate group which is subject to charismatic authority is based on an emotional form of communal relationship. The administrative staff of the charismatic leader does not consist of “officials”; at least its members are not technically trained. ... There is no hierarchy; the leader merely intervenes in general or in individual cases when he considers the members of his staff inadequate to a task to which they have been entrusted. There is no such thing as a definite sphere of authority and of competence. ... There are no established administrative organs. ... There is no system of formal rules, of abstract legal principles, and hence no process of judicial decision oriented to them. But equally there is no legal wisdom oriented to judicial precedent. Formally concrete judgments are newly created from case to case and are originally regarded as divine judgments and revelations. ... The genuine prophet, like the genuine military leader and every true leader in this sense, preaches, creates, or demands new obligations. In the pure type of charisma, these are imposed on the authority of revolution [sic] by oracles, or of the leader’s own will, and are recognized by the members of the religious, military, or party group because they come from such a source. (Weber 1947, pp. 360-361.) p. 32
Charismatic authority is thus outside the realm of everyday routine and the profane sphere. In this respect it is sharply opposed both to rational, and particularly bureaucratic, authority, and to traditional authority, whether in its patriarchal, patrimonial, or any other form. Both rational and traditional authority are specifically forms of everyday routine control of action; while the charismatic type is the direct antithesis of this. Bureaucratic authority is specifically rational in the sense of being bound to intellectually analysable rules; while charismatic authority is specifically irrational in the sense of being foreign to all rules. Traditional authority is bound to the precedents handed down from the past and to this extent is also oriented to rules. Within the sphere of its claims, charismatic authority repudiates the past, and is in this sense a specifically revolutionary force. (Weber 1947, pp. 361-362.) pp. 32 - 33
It is the charismatic, and therefore revolutionary, quality of entrepreneurship that makes it a source of economic growth, that allows it to play the role of “industrial mutation — if I may use that biological term — that incessantly revolutionizes the industrial structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one” (Schumpeter 1950 [1976, p. 83], emphasis original). p. 33
Recast in these explicitly Weberian terms, Schumpeter’s theory of entrepreneurship looks something like this. In its undeveloped state, an economy is based largely on traditional behavior, which bounds the possibilities for conscious economic activity. Under the right institutional setting — bourgeois capitalism — charismatic leadership arises, in the form of the entrepreneur, to break the crust of convention and to create new wealth by “‘lead[ing]’ the means of production into new channels” (Schumpeter 1934, p. 89). Charisma is personal and revolutionary; “in its pure form charismatic authority may be said to exist only in the process of originating. It cannot remain stable, but becomes either traditionalized or rationalized, or a combination of both” (Weber 1947, p. 364). In the economic sphere, of course, the tendency is toward rationalization. Not only do imitators rush in once the entrepreneur has blazed the trail, but also the problem of succession within the entrepreneurial organization leads (if the organization is to continue) to bureaucratization, that is, to the substitution of rules for personal authority; to the creation of abstract offices divorced from their individual holders; and to the increasing preeminence of specialized knowledge and spheres of competence (Weber 1947, pp. 330-334). p. 33
Langlois has captured Schumpeter's creative destruction and the business cycle in these quotations. If we agree on the problem that faces oil and gas, the decline in deliverability, it is reasonable to assume that we agree on the entrepreneur being a key to solving the problem. Langlois notes the change that needs to be brought about are initiated by the entrepreneur. Yesterday we discussed how individuals need to approach People, Ideas & Objects with a different mindset. [The cognitive and motivational paradox', the risk of becoming blind sleep-walking agents in the hands of whoever wants to feed us.] This mindset is accurately captured in Langlois discussion of the entrepreneur.

How I see this project developing is through the entrepreneurial efforts of the Community of Independent Service Providers. Each member of the CISP, SKIE, ID or BG would fulfill the role in making the necessary changes within the industry. Each member maybe supported by 5 - 10 support staff that are able to leverage the entrepreneur's talents. These groups would be part of the larger SKIE community that would work together through the enhanced Information Technologies they build with the People, Ideas & Objects software development capability. I think this is the logical and probable makeup of the service sectors of the greater oil and gas industry. What needs to be done today is that these members need to act.

I approach this environment with a sense of self preservation. There is an abundance of work that needs to be done. I have two choices in approaching this work, I can do it all, or I can do none of it. I choose the sane approach and find a role that I am best suited to filling. Raising the money needed for development and the CISP. To involve myself in the actually software development at this point is counter productive, or more probably destructive. My key role to date has been to ensure that the change as defined by the Draft Specification happens.
But — and this is the heart of Schumpeter’s thesis — once the hard work of crust-breaking has been done, charismatic leadership is no longer necessary, and the entrepreneur must ride into the sunset. p. 34
I can be a strong advocate for this software development. I am the one to encourage the investors and shareholders in oil and gas to fund these developments. I am the one who can direct the producers to involve themselves in the various communities working to build these solutions. That is the role that I feel I should fill on a go forward basis.
As we saw, however, Schumpeter’s claims are much different. He associates “personal” capitalism with charismatic leadership. It is the entrepreneur who makes dramatic, and often creatively destructive, changes. In Schumpeter, those who come along and fill in the details are important, but it is the changes that really matter. The obsolescence thesis is a claim not that large, fully articulated enterprises may be necessary to realize the vision of an individual entrepreneur; rather, it is a claim that those enterprises will be the sources of change. Let us put it succinctly. In Chandler, large organizations are the result of economic change; in Schumpeterian later capitalism, economic change is the result of large organizations. p. 36
Our appeal should be based on these eight "Focused on" priorities and values of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not initially be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are. If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.

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Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Langlois Obsolescence

I am encouraged by the shareholder lawsuit against BP's directors. Each day there appears to be more and more people taking action to deal with these bureaucracies.

Chapter 2 of Professor Richard N. Langlois' book "The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism"  is entitled "The Obsolescence of the Entrepreneur" and deals with the Schumpterian Dichotomy. That dichotomy is the declining importance of the entrepreneur in the latter part of Schumpeter writings. This appears to be in contrast to his earlier writings in which he focused on the entrepreneur. What this post seeks to better define is Professor Langlois' vanishing hand hypothesis and its application to oil and gas. That is, the era of the large bureaucracy had its time and place. That era is now passing, to be replaced once again by the entrepreneur.
In the "early" Schumpeter -- Schumpeter I -- the innovation process might best be characterized as a linear one. Christopher Freeman (1982) describes it this way. Basic inventions are more or less exogenous to the economic system; their supply is perhaps influenced by market demand in some way, but their genesis lies outside the existing market structure. p. 21
Freeman notes that innovation is under the direction of no one group or individual. Adam Smith's invisible hand is present and the market provides. In this next quotation we see Chandler's visible hand.
“The main differences between Schumpeter II and Schumpeter I,” says Freeman, “are in the incorporation of endogenous scientific and technical activities conducted by large firms... p. 21
These quotations are noting the changes in the source of innovation. From the entrepreneur to the rise of the successful corporate Research & Development (R&D) arms of large firms such as Xerox PARC, Bell Labs and others. These firms R&D activities replaced the role of the entrepreneur during the middle of the last century. Langlois vanishing hand suggest that the role of the entrepreneur will rise again in prominence to the bureaucracy. Therefore it is reasonable to ask, what is the critical role of the entrepreneur?
Indeed, the job of the entrepreneur is precisely to introduce new knowledge. The “Circular Flow of Economic Life” is a state in which knowledge is not changing. Economic growth occurs at the hands of entrepreneurs, who bring into the system knowledge that is qualitatively new – knowledge not contained in the existing economic configuration. p. 27
Its more then just knowledge. Ideas have a critical role in economic growth. People, Ideas & Objects is derivative of Professor Paul Romer's "New Growth Theory" of People, Ideas and Things. The idea of using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the innovative oil and gas industry was in front of everyone in the industry. Why didn't this idea percolate to the top earlier?
There has to be a mechanism by which new knowledge enters the system. And that mechanism cannot be rational calculation, for as David Hume (1978, p. 164) long ago observed, “no kind of reasoning can give rise to a new idea.” p. 27
What has been done already has the sharp-edged reality of all things which we have seen and experienced; the new is only the figment of our imagination. Carrying out a new plan and acting according to a customary one are things as different as making a road and walking along it. p. 27
How different a thing this is becomes clearer if one bears in mind the impossibility of surveying exhaustively all the effects and counter-effects of the projected enterprise. Even as many of them as could in theory be ascertained if one had unlimited time and means must practically remain in the dark. As military action must be taken in a given strategic position even if all the data potentially procurable are not available, so also in economic life action must be taken without working out all the details of what must be done. Here the success of everything depends on intuition, the capacity of seeing things in a way which afterwards proves to be true, even though it cannot be established at the moment, and of grasping the essential fact, discarding the unessential, even though one can give no account of the principles by which this is done. Thorough preparatory work, and special knowledge, breadth of intellectual understanding, talent for logical analysis, may under certain circumstances be sources of failure. (Schumpeter, 1934, p. 85.) pp. 27 - 28
I read this as not being the role of one entrepreneur. I have identified that the Joint Operating Committee is the key organizational construct of an innovative oil and gas producer. I have taken that idea and formulated a vision, the Draft Specification, of how the idea of using the JOC could be incorporated in the day to day of the industry. From this point forward, it is the work of many entrepreneurs to develop the application and make the industry as innovative as possible. That is where the Industrial District (ID), Business Groups (BG), Small Knowledge Intensive Enterprises (SKIE) and Community of Independent Service Providers play a key and different role then what is done today. Langlois notes.
Entrepreneurship – introducing the qualitatively new – is an activity inherently different, it would seem, from the kind of rational calculation portrayed in the imagery of neoclassical modeling.
It is interesting that Schumpeter regards the entrepreneurial act as requiring in fact greater conscious rationality than routine activity (Schumpeter 1934, p. 85). This reemphasizes the empirical nature of his conception of economic knowledge. Routine behavior requires less conscious rationality because it is essentially “preprogrammed” through trial-and-error learning. Notice, of course, that, at least in “early” capitalism, the conscious rationality of the entrepreneur is not adequate to the task of innovation. This is why entrepreneurship requires intuition, the leap of logic. But – and here we get to the heart of the matter – conscious rationality, for Schumpeter, is in fact becoming increasingly adequate to the job of dealing with the radically new.
The more accurately, however, we learn to know the natural and social world, the more perfect our control of facts becomes; and the greater the extent, with time and progressive rationalisation, within which things can be simply calculated, and indeed quickly and reliably calculated, the more the significance of this [entrepreneurial] function decreases. Therefore the importance of the entrepreneurial type must diminish just as the importance of the military commander has already diminished. (Schumpeter, 1934, p. 85, emphasis added.)
Notice the syllogism. Because the unknown can be increasingly calculated rationally, the “extra-logical” function of the entrepreneur becomes increasingly unnecessary, and so the importance of the entrepreneurial type must diminish. p. 28
Placing the caveat "experienced entrepreneur" on the ID, BG, SKIE or CISP is a necessary. People who are able to see the forest for the trees in terms of what has to be done. As much as no one was in control of the innovation in the entrepreneurial era of Schumpeter's first writings, no one can influence the scope and scale of the project defined here. What we can do is share the understanding of how the industry operates, capture that in the software and apply it through the innovative tools that we develop.

We are at the beginning of this process. The bureaucracy remains in complete control. However we find encouragement in the ongoing activities in the industry. In these next three quotations Langlois provides us with an understanding of where we are in the process and how the transition will come about.
"Defenseless fortresses invite aggression, especially if there is rich booty in them. Aggressors will work themselves up into a state of rationalizing hostility -- aggressors always do. No doubt it is possible, for a time, to buy them off. But this last resource [sic] fails as soon as they discover that they can have it all" (Schumpeter 1950 [1976, p. 143]). p. 30
and
“Thus the modern corporation, although the product of the capitalist process, socializes the bourgeois mind; it relentlessly narrows the scope of capitalist motivations; not only that, it will eventually kill its roots” (Schumpeter 1950 [1976, p. 156]). Like Marx, then, he sees capitalism as leading to its own destruction. But unlike Marx, Schumpeter sees capitalism as the victim of its own economic success not its economic failure. This tale stands Marx on his head, its plot laced with a heavy and self satisfied irony. The tone is disinterested and the attitude fatalistic; but the message is largely cautionary. At base, Schumpeter is nothing so much as a neoconservative, perhaps the first neoconservative. p. 30
Lastly a word of caution to put these points in context.
In the end, however, taking all this too seriously puts us in danger of reading Schumpeter literal-mindedly. The force of the argument is in the texture of the landscape -- not in its details. Indeed, there is a sense in which the “Schumpeterian tension” -- the tension between the Schumpeter who comes to praise entrepreneurship and the Schumpeter who comes to bury it -- actually enriches the majestic irony of Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. p. 31
Our appeal should be based on these eight "Focused on" priorities and values of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not initially be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are. If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.

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Sunday, August 16, 2009

The past quarter's performance.

The conflicting information and contradictions present in the energy business show how difficult the industry has become. Prices have at least halved since last year, record levels of capital expenditures in 2008 have produced substantial 5 - 6% declines in production. Inventories are bursting with oil and many Super Tanker are idled with full loads of product. Yet here in Calgary we are met with significant shortages of gas. Companies such as Chevron have ceased to drill for any Natural Gas on the entire North American continent. With this technical, political and recessionary environment; is it any surprise that earnings have been challenged? Or that production and reserves continue to decline? What's a producer to do, they can't perform in the short or long term. I would ask if the past organizational methods, the bureaucracy, are appropriate for the current and future needs of the industry? 

The Times Online have prepared a summary of the most recent quarterly performance of oil and gas firms. Stating that lay-offs of 5,000 to 10,000 people will be cut in each of the International Oil Companies (IOC). Discussion in the article turns to how the industry may solve these problems. 
Anthony Lobo, head of oil and gas at KPMG, said that in the short term small mergers of, say, £20 billion, and joint ventures with national oil companies (NOCs) are more likely than huge mergers. “The deals of £40 billion or more seen in the last decade are unlikely to happen because one international oil company [IOC] buying another arguably compounds the problem,” he said.
Joint Ventures which are managed through the Joint Operating Committee and are the global and natural means of conducting oil and gas operations. The problem we face today is the development of Information Technology has focused on the technical capabilities and not on the business of the oil and gas business. The JOC is the legal, financial, communication, cultural and operational decision making framework of the global oil and gas industry. Using these "Joint Ventures" provides the industry with the ability to hit the ground running and deal with the unique attributes of the specific JOCs they are members of. Applying the JOC's unique strategic, financial and technical resources too the National Oil Companies reserves.

The difficulty is we have to develop the systems and organizations to define and support this natural and global manner of business operations. That is what we are attempting to do here at People, Ideas & Objects. Importantly, the author of the article takes the Joint Venture concept further.
“The magic formula is the combination of cash and reserves. The IOCs have cash and access to debt but the NOCs hold the keys to many of the reserves. As NOCs are not up for sale, we are likely to see international oil companies proposing joint ventures.”
This is because the “easy” oil — on land and in politically friendly regions — is drying up. NOCs own 80% of the world’s reserves, leaving the industry to fight over a shrinking number of fields in hard-to-reach places. Manouchehr Takin of the Centre for Global Energy Studies said: “The IOCs need the NOCs a lot more than the NOCs need them.”
I have established the revenue model for People, Ideas & Objects to consider this potential reality. Noting the two sources of revenue of this software development project are the oil and gas producer who needs to organize their approach to exploration and production. Secondly I have noted that the governments that are in producing regions. Have a vested interest in ensuring this software development project represents their compliance and governance frameworks. To ensure the management of the property in their country, state or province are consistent with their regulations and requirements. The financial resources necessary to develop the software for each of these unique jurisdictions, must be sourced from the individual governments themselves. There are three reasons this must be done.

  1. The financial resources needed to address the unique characteristics of Joint Ventures operating in a certain jurisdiction. These compliance and governance demands may total $40 to $100 million in software development costs per region. For the software developer to raise this type of money from anyone other then the governments themselves is impossible. As evidenced by the lack of any current applications in the market space. Who would benefit from a return on these types of investments?
  2. Secondly the producers are not motivated to fund these developments. It is not in their best interests to spend substantial financial resources on developing systems for government compliance in each region they operate. In the past the question of which producers should develop these systems is answered with the response that "all of them need to." So each producer firm should pay $40 - 100 million in software development costs in order to be in compliance with each jurisdiction that they operate in. Here I begin to define the surreal nature of the expectations of the oil and gas software developer.
  3. Governments need the energy industry to be an active member of their economy. All members of that community. The article incorrectly suggests that the IOC's should be the ones that propose Joint Ventures with the NOC's. From my point of view, why would a jurisdiction like the North Sea, Texas, Saudi Arabia or Alberta limit the number of producers that are capable of operating in their jurisdiction. Limiting operations to only those producers that can develop an ERP system with the scope to manage their jurisdiction. The entrepreneurial and dynamic focus of the producers will provide the longer term value of the natural resources of the NOC's. Bringing all producers into their environment requires the ability to operate in their country. Whether that is an IOC or a geologist with an interesting idea. This type of environment can be facilitated by funding People, Ideas & Object's software development to provide this capability to operate in their country. Opening their economy to all capable producers will ensure that their resources are developed in a competitive and open business environment. 
It's important to stress that People, Ideas & Objects are an open source strategy of development. The code that makes up the system will be available to those interested parties to ensure they are operating in compliance to the guidelines and regulations of the country where the JOC resides. Access to the software code provides a transparency to both producers and governments that their operations are calculated correctly in the software they use.

If we take the scenario that is the software developers competitive business model that exists today. The various software developers are required to undertake these large investments on behalf of their producer clients. Investments in software that do not provide a competitive advantage, but clearly offer a reason for the producer not to use the software. The surreal nature of oil and gas ERP software development business is being addressed in People, Ideas & Objects business and revenue models.  Please join us here

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Thursday, March 05, 2009

It's Official, Everyone is an Entrepreneur

Reid Hoffman is on Charlie Rose talking about his company LinkedIn. Its not surprising that I just highlighted the LinkedIn service on Tuesday's blog post. This is a must view video, and keep in mind that everyone is an entrepreneur, entrepreneurs work in communities and People, Ideas & Objects is the community for those people that work in oil and gas. Please join me here.



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Monday, February 23, 2009

Henry Ford on service

A business absolutely devoted to service will have only one worry about profits. They will be embarrassingly large." - Henry Ford
Granted these words are in excess of 100 years old. Services still hold the higher margins that sustain a long term profitable operation. And it is reasonable to assume that the same will hold true in the future. Providing the Community of Independent Service Providers (CIPS) with the profitable operations that are necessary to support the innovative oil and gas producer.

The ideas that could make a difference in the day to day operation of a producer. Are locked away in the organization which is unable to exact the changes necessary to release this potential. The employee of the firm is constrained by authority and reach to make the necessary changes to the systems. It is removal of these constraints that I have designed into the Draft Specification.

Is the future of our organizations more of the same in terms of the ability to make the necessary changes. A future in which the sciences and engineering are evolving at a rapid rate, and will continue to do so, how will the organizations keep up. Clearly the bureaucracy can't and has decided that it won't pursue any reorganization of the industry. Therefore they will not be a part of the solution.

How does the individual who sees a better way to operate a certain property. Exact these changes in the systems that support the producer. Clearly this individual needs to be empowered to have the systems accommodate their needs. The producer firm is focused on their competitive advantages of applying their scientific and engineering capabilities to their asset base. The service provider supports these tasks with both the People, Ideas & Objects software applications, and as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers.

With the objective of the software and services being to provide for the most profitable operations of the producer firm. The user is the critical point of all these organizations success. In order to begin these tasks we need to source the 100 users to move the Draft Specification to the Preliminary Specification . It is these 100 users who will have the greatest advantage in selecting the appropriate areas for themselves in establishing their service offerings. These people can start with this process and join me in making this real.

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Apple's App Store and others.

What this post is about is the type of environment or community I see People, Ideas & Objects becoming. There are many types of communities that exist today that I can point to, and detail the attributes that appeal to me, and what I think should be emulated in "our" application modules. (Click on the title of this entry to be taken to a New York Times article on Apple's App Store.)

Google 

I am a prolific user of Google applications. Including Google Apps for People, Ideas & Objects where the Wiki, blog and many other productivity and collaboration applications are available. A regular Google Account also provides the ability to monitor and control the various data types that an individual is interested in. Consisting of more then 33 distinct applications, each is capable of managing a certain element of your world, and connect you with members of your community, whatever that may consist of. 

The attribute that I find Google Applications provide is a very good example of what the alleged "cloud" provides. Up to date applications that are available everywhere. This is the next element of the always-on Internet, and represents a huge leap in software value. When applications can be upgraded once, the speed benefits more then just the developers. The iterative development of software is possible, and users are put in the driver seat and in control of the applications features and functionality. 


Apple iTunes

iTunes, the application that just keeps getting better. Music, podcasts, radio, movies and TV. All of your entertainment in one easy to use, search-able database. And if you want to purchase a song or movie, the iTunes Store is just a click away. All the sophistication that is the iTunes application is available in the easiest interface. You have the opportunity to organize and manage your entertainment in unique and innovative ways like SmartPlaylists, and the new Genius functionality. 

The attribute that I find iTunes brings is the complete management of one element of your life. Your entertainment. What I would like to see is the user, who is in control of the developments for the oil and gas producer, use the People, Ideas & Objects application as their commercial environment. The place where they earn a living. 


Apple's App Store

We've all heard about the iPhone and its applications. Independent developers and firms that are selling "cloud" based services can develop an application very easily for the iPhone. With a huge Software Development Kit provided by Apple. A developer can make an application that could be a complete home run on the iPhone for as little as $50,000.00. With a readily available market, and distribution to consumers, developers are finding access to revenue streams of up to $500,000.00 / year. 

It should be made clear that this is the first time that a developer has been able to independently invest, market and earn based on their entrepreneurial skills. There have been markets such as SourceForge and Collabnet. But those are not necessarily ways to make money. They only provide for the ability, in the open source ideal, to being involved in making much better software. 

I am doing what is possible to make People, Ideas & Objects the second market for these developers. But theirs more, much more. This is also the marketplace where users will be able to actively participate in making the software they want and need, and also earn money for the time spent on working with developers and also their producer clients. 

The services associated with People, Ideas & Objects software are licensed to the users under contract. Developers and Users are able to look to the work being done here as part of their career and for monetary gain. As I have mentioned here many times before; the total cost of a global application with the full scope of a producer firm, is estimated to be in excess of one billion dollars. The majority of those revenues are distributed to the individuals who make the software what it is. The users and developers, please join me here

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Thursday, August 28, 2008

Professor Peter Klein on Entrepreneurship

We have an interesting paper that deals with the topic of entrepreneurial leadership. I am of the belief that entrepreneurship will be a much larger component in each and every individuals makeup. People's careers used to span their working life at a single firm. Careers now span the working life of an individual within one industry. In the very near future, we may see careers span multiple companies as well as multiple industries.

To achieve this level of dynamic working environment, an individual will be relying far more heavily on their entrepreneurial skills. What does that mean, and what exactly are entrepreneurial skills and entrepreneurial leadership. This paper offers the opportunity to better define these difficult to quantify and qualify terms. These entrepreneurial definitions are also key attributes of making this software development project successful.

This web-log has never reviewed any of Professor Peter Klein's work. I have however subscribed to the Organizations and Markets (their Feed ) web-log of Peter Klein and Nicholas Foss' for over two years and as such have either highlighted individual posts through the Google reader interface, or commented on them briefly through Professor Langlois' writings.

It was through Organizations and Markets that Professor Langlois was introduced as a guest blogger. Professor Langlois had just received the Schumpeter prize and was writing as a guest. He now frequently writes as a regular contributor to Organizations and Markets and his research was a foundation on which the Draft Specification was built.

The topic of Entrepreneurship has become more and more a part of the mainstay of the business environment. This has particularly been the case since the 2000 .com crash. The entrepreneur has since become enabled through the Information and Communication Technologies. Technologies that are real in comparison to what was hoisted as innovative in the pre-2000 era. So lets find out what we can learn in order to assist the understanding of the users and developers about these somewhat vague terms.

Professor Klein sets the stage of how critical the entrepreneur has become.

"Entrepreneurship is one of the fastest-growing fields within economics, management, finance and even law. Surprisingly, however, while the entrepreneur is fundamentally an economic agent -- the "driving force of the market," in Mises's (1949, p. 249) phrase -- modern theories of economic organization and strategy maintain an ambivalent relationship with entrepreneurship." p. 1
I would be at a loss to further define the role of the entrepreneur importance in this software development project. I have selected the name of this project based on Professor Paul Romer's new growth theory that involves People, Ideas & Things. Whereas "Things" is replaced with the software "Objects" that we use to capture the oil and gas business understanding in the software. Professor Klein also discusses some of the difficulty in defining what an entrepreneur is.
"It is widely recognized that entrepreneurship is somehow important, but there is little consensus about how the entrepreneurial role should be modeled and incorporated in economics and strategy. Indeed, the most important works in the economic literature on entrepreneurship -- Schumpeter's account of innovation, Knight's theory of project, and Kirzner's analysis of entrepreneurial discovery -- are views as interesting, but idiosyncratic insights that do not easily generalize to other contexts and problems. p. 1
Why this is important. I think every business user has been faced with the near impossible task of making changes in the reports and analysis of their systems and data. Many are forced to use the interfaces that are provided by an SAP or Oracle application. Interfaces that the users could improve upon with some minor data, processing or alternative changes. However, knowing the difficulty in making these changes has silenced any and all initiative in the corporate world.

Asking for change will require too much effort and political skill to make the changes worthwhile. It is through the users ability to discuss their information processing requirements in this project, and subsequently see and incrementally improve upon the software applications that they use. This is what People, Ideas & Objects is providing, a place where users and developers can work together to make the oil and gas worker more enabled, innovative and entrepreneurial.

Making the working environment more user friendly may have been a goal prior to the web. Now users demand higher quality applications that they can make changes to. This is an important concept and Professor Klein states the reason why.
More recently, the Austrian economist Israel Kirzner has popularized the notion of entrepreneurship as discovery, or alertness to profit opportunities. p. 2
If change is the constant, and we are to enable the entrepreneurial spirit of the individuals that work in the industry; to discover, be alert and to most importantly implement profit opportunities. These are the primary motivating factors of these individuals. Why would they need to file a change request, fill out the forms, estimate the costs, seek budget approval, and have the signing by four authorized individuals to benefit the company? These changes need to be able to be implemented in a more efficient manner through the natural interaction of the users and the developers.

Innovation has at its core certain trial and error elements. Approving the bureaucratic change request that ultimately leads to an error will ensure that user is never authorized again. However, what we have learned about the innovative oil and gas producer is that failure is the critical part of learning. An error should not mean that the individual has no credibility for future changes. It should mean exactly the opposite. Who therefore should be the one to make the decision on what changes the users want? Particularly if the individuals compensation is at stake.
Opportunities are essentially subjective phenomena (Foss, Klein, Kor, and Mahoney, 2008). As such, opportunities are neither “discovered” nor “created” (Alvarez and Barney, 2007), but imagined. They exist, in other words, only in the minds of decision-makers. p. 2
Recall in the "Secrets of Successful Execution" blog post, "Execution is the result of thousands of decisions made every day by employees acting according to the information they have and their own self interest." And...
By contrast, the classic contributions to the economic theory of entrepreneurship from Schumpeter, Knight, Mises, Kirzner, and others model entrepreneurship as a function, activity, or process, not an employment category or market structure. The entrepreneurial function has been characterized in various ways: judgment (Cantillon, 1755; Knight, 1921; Casson, 1982; Langlois and Cosgel, 1993; Foss and Klein, 2005), innovation (Schumpeter, 1911), adaptation (Schultz, 1975, 1982), alertness (Kirzner, 1973, 1979, 1992), and coordination (Witt 1998a, 1998b, 2003). p. 4
I would think that attempting to source these qualities from the management of a firm would be futile.
By focusing too narrowly on self-employment and start-up companies, the contemporary literature may be understating the role of entrepreneurship in the economy and in business organization. p. 4
It bears asking, is the entrepreneur the prototypical employee of the future? Klein now focuses on the profit motive of the entrepreneur in their optimal situation. Suggesting that the competitive and profit motive are the reasons that workers in the oil and gas industry will be motivated to make these changes. If the user has a vested interest in their own profits as a result of their actions, does that also imply that the producers interests are well taken care of by the user?
Judgment is distinct from boldness, innovation, alertness, and leadership. Judgment must be exercised in mundane circumstances, for ongoing operations as well as new ventures. Alertness is the ability to react to existing opportunities while judgment refers to beliefs about new opportunities. Those who specialize in judgmental decision making may be dynamic, charismatic leaders, but they need not possess these traits. In short, in this view, decision making under un-certainty is entrepreneurial, whether it involves imagination, creativity, leadership, and related factors or not. pp. 5 - 6
and
Mises’s point is that a socialist economy may assign individuals to be workers, managers, technicians, inventors, and the like, but it cannot, by definition, have entrepreneurs, because there are no money profits and losses. Entrepreneurship, and not labor or management or technological expertise, is the crucial element of the market economy. As Mises puts it: directors of socialist enterprises may be allowed to “play market,” to make capital investment decisions as if they were allocating scarce capital across activities in an economizing way, but entrepreneurs cannot be asked to “play speculation and investment” (Mises,1949, p. 705). Without entrepreneurship, a complex, dynamic economy cannot allocate resources to their highest valued use. p. 7
Entrepreneurship as opportunity identification.

Is it in the best interests of the oil and gas firm and industry to permit the individual to be more entrepreneurial? And lets be candid, they will as a result of this freedom be better able to earn much higher wages and profits then they would qualify for in today's organization. Although the costs of employment may be higher for firms within the industry, the ability of the industry to move further and faster is the net result. And with prices for energy commanding ever larger revenues, this sharing of the value is of the best interest to all concerned.
The most important exception is the literature in management and organization theory on opportunity discovery or opportunity identification, or what Shane (2003) calls the “individual–opportunity nexus.” p. 7
and
Shane and Venkataraman (2000, p. 220) define entrepreneurial opportunities as “those situations in which new goods, services, raw materials, and organizing methods can be introduced and sold at greater than their cost of production.” p. 8
Klein seeks to parse what an entrepreneur is in terms of a classification based on type. Defining a "Discovery" and "Creation" approach. A mix of these two classifications of entrepreneurs would work hand in hand in developing new sources of value for the oil and gas producer.
Entrepreneurship research may be able to realize higher marginal returns by focusing on entrepreneurial action, rather than its presumed antecedents. Alvarez and Barney (2007) argue that entrepreneurial objectives, characteristics, and decision-making differ systematically depending on whether opportunities are modeled as discovered or created. In the “discovery approach,” for example, entrepreneurial actions are responses to exogenous shocks, while in the “creation approach,” such actions are endogenous. Discovery entrepreneurs focus on predicting systematic risks, formulating complete and stable strategies, and procuring capital from external sources. Creation entrepreneurs, by contrast, appreciate iterative, inductive, incremental decision making, are comfortable with emergent and flexible strategies, and tend to rely on internal finance. pp. 11 - 12
As with sharing in the profits of their entrepreneurial actions, losses that are incurred in the discovery and innovation process would be shared as well. This also provides the entrepreneur with the knowledge that risk is inherent in their actions and they should be mindful of the consequences.
Likewise, realized entrepreneurial losses do not fit naturally within a creation framework. Alvarez and Barney (2007) emphasize that “creation entrepreneurs” do take into account potential losses, the “acceptable losses” described by Sarasvathy (2001). “[A]n entrepreneur engages in entrepreneurial actions when the total losses that can be created by such activities are not too large” (Alvarez and Barney, 2007, p. 19). However, when those losses are realized, it seems more straightforward to think in terms of mistaken beliefs about the future—expected prices and sales revenues that did not, in fact, materialize—then the “disappearance” of an opportunity that was previously created. Entrepreneurs do not, in other words, “create” the future, they “imagine” it, and their imagination can be wrong as often as it is right. p. 13
Opportunities as a black box.

Here is where Professor Klein gets into the topic of why a firm needs to compensate the entrepreneur for these actions. Why can't the people employed by the firm determine these opportunities as a nine to five salary based job? Klein identifies the key characteristic that is necessary to make the entrepreneur, and not the salaried employee, motivated. These characteristics are also necessary characteristics in the future oil and gas industry. An industry that has unlimited potential when the resources of the industry are released to earn profits in their chosen field. And I am not talking about just the engineers and earth scientists, all those are critical, but also the people that are involved in the business of the producer and are able to optimize the profit seeking potential through other professions such as Accounting and Administration.
Although some researchers argue that the subjective or socially constructed nature of opportunity makes it impossible to separate opportunity from the individual, others contend that opportunity is as an objective construct visible to or created by the knowledgeable or attuned entrepreneur. Either way, a set of weakly held assumptions about the nature and sources of opportunity appear to dominate much of the discussion in the literature. pp. 13 - 14
and
Do we need a precise definition of opportunities to move forward? Can one do entrepreneurship research without specifying what, exactly, entrepreneurial opportunities “are”? Can we treat opportunities as a “black box,” much as other concepts in management such as culture, leadership, routines, capabilities, and the like are treated (Abell, Felin, and Foss, 2007)? p. 14
and
The creation approach treats opportunities as the result of entrepreneurial action. Opportunities do not exist objectively, ex ante, but are created, ex nihilo, as entrepreneurs act based on their subjective beliefs. “Creation opportunities are social constructions that do not exist independent of entrepreneur’s perceptions” (Alvarez and Barney, 2007, p. 15). In this sense, the creation approach sounds like the imagination approach described here. Still, like the discovery approach, the creation approach makes the opportunity the unit of analysis. How entrepreneurs create opportunities, and how they subsequently seek to exploit those opportunities, is the focus of the research program. pp. 14 - 15
and
An alternative way to frame a subjectivist approach to entrepreneurship, emphasizing uncertainty and the passage of time, is to drop the concept of “opportunity” altogether. If opportunities are inherently subjective, and we treat them as a black box, then the unit of analysis should not be opportunities, but rather some action—in Knightian terms, the assembly of resources in the present in anticipation of (uncertain) receipts in the future. p. 15
For the purposes of this post I think we risk losing the reader and the substantial value that Professor Klien has developed here. With a clear definition of the entrepreneur in the innovative oil and gas producer we can see how the dynamic nature of the industry can develop. What this display's in rather stark terms is the role of management. The management is substantially diminished in the innovative oil and gas producer firm. Although not completely eliminated, the roles of management, and particularly those skills that emulate much of the Soviet era "central planner" are eliminated.

Through the little piggies analysis of Encana, Petro-Canada, Nexen and CNRL. We see the capabilities of the current management is unable to understand;

  • The business that they are in, selling production forward at substantially discounted prices.
  • Unable to attain the speed in which they approach the business, announcing declining production levels.
  • The level of innovativeness that is lacking. More of the same (particularly stock option compensation) offered as the solution.

Eliminating the level of management "planning" and their associated high costs are what the investor should seek to achieve through the development of this software.
Foss, Foss, Klein, and Klein (2007) show how this approach provides new insights into the emergence, boundaries, and internal organization of the firm. Firms exist not only to economize on transaction costs, but also as a means for the exercise of entrepreneurial judgment, and as a low-cost mechanism for entrepreneurs to experiment with various combination's of heterogeneous capital goods. Changes in firm boundaries can likewise be understood as the result of processes of entrepreneurial experimentation. And internal organization can be interpreted as the means by which the entrepreneur delegates particular decision rights to subordinates who exercise a form of “derived” judgment on his behalf (Foss, Foss, and Klein, 2007). pp. 19 - 20
It is critical to recall the key competitive advantage of the innovative oil and gas producer is their land base, physical infrastructure and capabilities in finding, developing and producing oil and gas. The entrepreneurial services necessary for the producer to achieve the maximum profit in this business are very broad and I suggest must be based on the markets (or JOC's) offerings. Klien also notes.
Here, as in Coase (1937), the employment relationship is central to the theory of the firm. The entrepreneur’s primary task is to coordinate the human resources that make up the firm. Foss, Foss, Klein, and Klein (2007), by contrast, focus on alienable assets, as in Knight (1921). They define the firm as the entrepreneur plus the alienable resources the entrepreneur owns and thus controls. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses. The cognitive approach explains the dynamics among team members but not necessarily their contractual relationships. Must the charismatic leader necessarily own physical capital, or can he be an employee or independent contractor? Formulating a business plan, communicating a corporate culture, and the like are clearly important dimensions of business leadership. But are they attributes of the successful manager or the successful entrepreneur? pp. 20 - 21
Of course there is always an alternative to what is discussed in this blog. That is to do nothing. If however, you feel that the time for these changes is now, join me here. If you know of like minded people, send them the URL to this blog and most importantly, click on the PayPal button to donate.

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