Showing posts with label PS-Budget. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PS-Budget. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

In Summary

These next two months we’ll see the difficulties in oil and gas manifest themselves in three events that will set back even the healthiest producer. The first is the natural gas price will be affected by the filling to capacity of the continent's natural gas storage. The EIA was even subtly hinting at this possibility earlier in September. Once the storage hits capacity there will be no place for the surplus gas to go. Expect pricing to be affected adversely. Second the quarterly report will need to be prepared. There are no more hedges providing cover for the low commodity prices. They all expired toward the end of the last quarter. The full scope of the difficulties in the industry will be on display as a result. Expect to see some financial surprises from the majority of the producers. The question will be asked by most, if things were this bad, why didn’t you shut-in production? And lastly, the banks will be completing their review of their loans to the producers. Banks being risk adverse will be wanting to stop the hemorrhaging by ceasing all lending, recalling any outstanding lines of credit and secure any obvious risks through seizure of the property.

Producers need to change their underlying business model from the high throughput production model to the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model, our user community and the service providers. In that way they can employ the price maker strategy to deal with the abundance brought about by the shale reservoirs. People, Ideas & Objects needs its budget funded in order for the commencement of this new business model to be implemented within the industry. Then the industry can anticipate that the value proposition that we provide will be delivered over the next 25 years.

There is a do nothing bureaucracy that is in place in the industry that refuses to do anything in the face of such devastation to the value, and capabilities of this industry. They therefore put our way of life in jeopardy by standing by and doing nothing. This muddle along strategy has worked for them in the past and they expect that it will continue to work for them. I think we are seeing that their strategy is failing and needs to be replaced by active management of the industry. We have had a year of poor oil prices. Five years of poor natural gas prices. Both commodities unable to provide the producer with positive margins. And with shale reservoirs not much of a chance of any relief. Yet they continue to produce unprofitably. And there is no discussion outside of this blog regarding any of the issues, the solutions or what should be done. There is a lot of commentary from the press and the analyst community but they don’t necessarily fully understand the industry and are only able to grab a headline or two in terms of being accurate. It is miraculous to me that these bureaucrats will pass through this time without saying or doing anything, or being held to account for anything.

It's a comfortable position to be in if all you do is the same thing day in and day out. Nothing ever expected of you, or you having to do anything. These bureaucrats have ceased to act based on market signals such as the price of the commodities that they produce. As time passes things age and deteriorate, are not built or replaced. Then the commodities become in short supply and the prices rise. We have no assurance that the investors have any confidence in the industry or the bureaucrats. We also have no assurance that the bureaucrats will begin to start responding to market signals such as high commodity prices. Instead, understanding their dilemma of a tenuous hold on their position within the company, they might just continue to do nothing and pocket the cash earned from higher prices.

Throw the bums out. Why give them the opportunity to screw it up any worse. Oil and gas is too important of an industry to fool around like this. Unlike the financial community we have no Fed that can flood the market with the commodities if something serious does happen. Let's get the budget for the Preliminary Specification funded and begin the replacement of this muddle along strategy with active management of the industry.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Thursday, September 10, 2015

An Olive Branch, Part III

The last two blog posts have painted a rather dire situation transpiring in the oil and gas industry this quarter. The assumption could be made that we make it through this period without too much disruption. Let's assume that for just a minute. We’ve heard nothing from the bureaucrats regarding these difficulties. And we have that trifecta of issues which we identified that include the bank reviews, the natural gas storage and third quarter report. Which do play out as they are scheduled to do. We would then face the year end process and the reporting of the past year. Maybe the markets will turn around and be positive for a change. Maybe all that has happened will be solved through the muddling along of the producers. And maybe things will get better in 2016.

As far as the bureaucrats were concerned they were going to phone-it-in from the cabin over the summer months and return to business as usual in September. But as we have detailed here, things are not as they had planned. The other aspect of this past summer is the fact that they did blow past their personal budget for what they thought they would be spending on the cabin renovation and that new boat. The fact is that the whole state of affairs of their personal budget needs a bit of tightening and it is not in the condition where it's able to sustain the chosen life of retirement, yet. They need to be working for a few more years in order to crystallize those retirement plans. What these bureaucrats will soon realize is that if, and we can debate the probabilities, but if the confidence in the industries management is lost then these bureaucrats will be out of a job. And it will be difficult for them to find their type of work in other industries as long as they carry that albatross of oil and gas experience on their resumes. No one will be interested in picking up these, fill in the blanks here.

Continuing on with our assumption that all is fine. That the banks didn’t seize any of the company’s properties during their review. That the global market changes, based on the need to accommodate higher interest rates. That natural gas prices will be enough to still pay the overhead. And after all Opec is scheduled to meet in December and maybe just maybe it’ll be a cold winter. Hope springs eternal. The ability to sustain a few more years of employment in oil and gas will be easy. Just the same as before.

You can debate who is the crazier one in the various scenarios that have played out in the last three days. Is it me with the dire consequences of the last five years coming to fruition and demanding attention in the third quarter? Or is it the do nothing bureaucrats expecting to cruise through another quarter or two, or even a few more years, phoning it in as it were with no expectation that change will be forced upon them.

I think this is a crisis. A crisis in confidence in the bureaucrats that run the industry. Similar in scope to the financial crisis in 2008. The difference of course is that the government has to step in when people become concerned that there is no integrity or value contained in the “paper” financial systems. Without it the whole shebang falls apart. A crisis in confidence in the oil and gas industry will be a really bad thing for the bureaucrats, but not much else. They will be out, permanently. The lot of them. Maybe not today, or even this next year. But it will be a wholesale change in the people who are running the show.

So maybe I’m being dramatic and over the top. Or I’ve got myself too far ahead of the game. I however have a record on this blog over the past ten years that is actively critical of the bureaucrats and their self serving and unprofitable manner in which they have operated the industry. My prospects, and those of the user community and service providers look good. If the bureaucrats do survive and thrive for another year that’s fine. Then we’ll be here pointing out the differences in how we’ll do things. This olive branch is provided as a means to secure our budget and accelerate our time to market. It has a high probability of not working, but we’ll keep trying. And one day we will replace these bureaucrats, just as every other industry is being disintermediated, and that day is much sooner than we can predict.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Wednesday, September 09, 2015

An Olive Branch, Part II

We continue on with details of our “option” program to provide producers with a solution to the issues that they face in the short term. The mid to long term solutions that we provide are the development of the Preliminary Specification, our user community and the service providers. Our current option program for the short term enables the producers to attain the $700 billion stock market capitalization gains that were lost in the last year as a result of the decline in commodity prices. Their stock prices are languishing due to the inability for them to provide a solution to the issues that they face to the marketplace. If the producers were able to provide a viable, credible solution, then they would be able to reclaim their prior losses on behalf of their shareholders.

This can be done by entering into a subscription to the Preliminary Specification. This subscription denotes that the producer is engaging in the necessary steps that are required for them to participate in funding our budget and the activities involved in developing the Preliminary Specification of People, Ideas & Objects. Subscriptions are calculated monthly and paid annually on each producer entering the program. Once the producer subscribes, their name will be published in the wiki with the other producers who have subscribed. Subscriptions for 2015 are open until December 31, 2015. Warning, any producer that subscribes, however does not participate in the funding of the budget in the long term, may be deemed to be manipulating their stocks value.

The situation as we detailed yesterday is that these producers have no solution to the issues that are seriously affecting their survivability. In the next month they will be faced with three detrimental actions that will put producers in further jeopardy. The first is the natural gas volumes being produced are about to exceed the continents storage volumes capacity. This will have long term and negative impacts on the natural gas prices. These prices are barely able to cover the cash costs of a producer as it is. Any further declines in natural gas prices will further cannibalize the producer organization. Secondly bank reviews of their loans to the producers will be undertaken to see if they are performing, or in breach of any of their covenants. The past review in April was of minimal disruption, however, that was primarily due to the hedging of the commodities that were still in place. Third, the third quarter report will have to be published. The third quarter will be particularly difficult as we mentioned in the second quarter. The hedging has now for all intents and purposes expired. The producers are fully exposed to the depths of the commodity price declines. We should expect to see some significant and serious destruction.

The bureaucrats have managed the industry well. There is no good news to go along with this trifecta of difficulties. If only they could quickly and easily find a solution to the deep seeded issues to these problems. One that would inspire confidence in the producer that all will be well, in time, and that there is a plan of action. (I feel like I’m selling moonshine out the back of an old Ford truck.) This is possible if the producer does subscribe to our option. The means to do so is to call me at the number that can be found on this blogpost. Then we can calculate your rate and arrange payment. It will be at that time that the producers name will be posted on the wiki, and we will promote the company as a participant in the development of the Preliminary Specification.

Without this olive branch I don’t know what the producers are going to do. Confidence is a difficult thing to lose. It’s an even more difficult thing to earn. I think though that that is what we will be talking about. The confidence in the bureaucrats who are running the oil and gas industry. There has been a lot of support that things would be o.k., that things were under control, to only see things continually get worse and much worse isn’t confidence inspiring. This quarter may be the point where the confidence in the industry is lost. It may not. I don’t have any horses in that race so it makes no difference to me. This is an olive branch, pure and simple. If the bureaucrats want to ignore this opportunity then that is their choice and their risk. I only know that in time, the confidence will be lost in them and the solutions that we are working on here at People, Ideas & Objects will provide for the answers one day. The question is where will the bureaucrats be. In this “option” scenario they get to stick around until we build our software. This would make things easier for us by taking some of the pressure off in terms of our delivery date. And that is my motivation in extending this olive branch.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Tuesday, September 08, 2015

An Olive Branch, Part I

I can only assume the range of emotions that the commodity prices put our friends the bureaucrats through last week. One minute they're at their lowest, the next moving into bull market territory, only to fade into a more peaceful range. These are the kind of emotions they put everyone through as a result of their inaction and overproduction. It's good to see them sweat a bit. Other than watch the commodity price ticker, because they know they can’t look out the window until the afternoon. For if they did, they would have nothing to do that afternoon. Old British joke. They seem to be frozen in time and in place and absolutely petrified. We saw a few layoffs, but those will soon be as common as the weather forecast. The question remains, what exactly are these bureaucrats doing?

It is the bureaucrats that the world will be looking to for a solution to the losses and disastrous consequences of their actions and inactions. They will be asked “what is the plan.” “What do you need to do to get out of this mess and do it as soon as you can.” There isn’t much in the way of a scenario where an industry is on fire, such as the oil and gas industry currently is. How will the powers that be put that fire out, and how soon will it resume normal operations. Standing at attention on the bridge of the ship, blinking in response to the question, with your pants on fire, isn’t going to inspire anyone.

Best to think quickly what your options are. The classic management excuse in the development of all scenarios is a) to do nothing. And they have been relying on this one for six or seven decades now. Clearly this won’t work, so we need new ideas. It’s at this point in time that I would point out that I had a vision in 1991 of how the industry could operate. One in which Information Technology would be the key enabler. It's now 24 years since that “idea” permeated my head and it has taken me this long to develop the Preliminary Specification. So coming up with a new idea on the bridge of the ship while your pants are on fire is the appropriate time and the appropriate place. Still the question has to be asked, what are our options?

Have I ever mentioned that we provide a $45.7 trillion (with a T) value proposition. Or that by funding our budget the producers could state that they have a solution to this issue and would be able to reclaim some of the past years $700 billion damage done to their stock market capitalizations. I’d be surprised if I hadn’t mentioned our value proposition. Anyway these are the values that should motivate the bureaucrats to act. Sure it would be the end of their reign of power. But what is it that they think they have?

We have our budget here at People, Ideas & Objects which will take some mental preparation for those that need to fund it. Think value proposition! One thing that can be done in the short term is that we can offer the producers an option. Our olive branch. The Preliminary Specification as a solution to the difficulties they face. This however will cost the producers a monthly fee, paid annually, in order to be part of the group of producers that are participating in this solution. It will be in this way that People, Ideas & Objects can begin the process of generating revenues, something we know absolutely nothing of. In exchange for this fee, producers will be able to state they have this option, and they are moving forward with this option as a solution to the problem. It’ll make the bureaucrats look like geniuses, and maybe even stop a round or two of layoffs.

Bureaucrats have a record, over the 24 years that I have been doing this, that stinks. The performance of the stocks of oil and gas producers has mapped closely to the commodity prices. Commodity prices go up, producers stocks go up. What is it that the bureaucrats are doing. How have they provided value to their shareholders, society and most importantly to the people who work in the industry. It is clear they’re only trading on the commodities. Why not just set up shop in Chicago and trade commodities then. This is a terrible record, however, it gets much worse. The times when commodity prices were high, bureaucrats were the ones found to be in the trough crowding out everyone else before anyone got their share. If they want to mitigate the sting of this record, rectify the problem in the industry, and keep their options open. This can be done by subscribing to this “option” of People, Ideas & Objects. We will publish the names of the producers that subscribe and you too may enjoy some stock price increases based on the potential value producers can earn in the future. Their incentive is to show the world they have a solution to the problem. Then with the efficient market hypothesis, their stocks will reclaim some of their lost stock market values.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

September 1, 2015

These next few months will be interesting for People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers. The ideas and solutions put forward in the Preliminary Specification are consistent with the needs in today’s oil and gas marketplace. That is they are evident to everyone in the industry and financial community. Our time is now. Both from the point of view of having our budget funded and this community proceeding with our developments, and our ability to address the capacity and capabilities of society's energy needs for the mid to long term.

The issue of overproduction might be something that people are willing to give the bureaucrats more time to work through. I suggest their behaviour in the past year regarding oil prices is evidence enough that bureaucrats can't, won't and will not ever do anything to rectify these difficulties. As further evidence we can use the natural gas business and the approach the bureaucrats have taken to correct the overproduction in that side of the business. Nothing. And it has been over five years since prices slipped below the marginal costs. As even further evidence we can look to the situation from 1986 onward. Low prices continued for what seemed like decades due to the inability to shut-in unprofitable production. Bureaucrats just whined about how bad the business was in their annual and quarterly reports for year after year. And muddled through. Impotent, incompetent and unacceptable for the 21st century and the importance that oil and gas provides society.

Another year of this; do nothing, say nothing, it’s not my fault, will only lose that much more money. And that many more producers will declare bankruptcy. We don't have that time and these bureaucrats have done nothing to earn the respect and privilege to continue on in this manner. Action is required to change the industry from the passive “muddle along” strategy to the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production models “price maker” strategy. We have work to do and it needs to get done. The only way that that is going to happen is that our budget gets funded. It’s not what the bureaucrats want, they have fought me for ten years, and now they don't have a say. They've lost the right to be involved and to participate.

One valid criticism of People, Ideas & Objects that we will hear from the bureaucrats is that it’s just a product. And it’s just vaporware at that. Which are both valid points. For the larger part of the past 24 years I have been working on this myself, financed by my own resources, at great personal cost. What do you expect from one individual. The Preliminary Specification is budgeted on the basis of 5,000 man years of development effort in its first commercial release. The oil and gas industry has contributed less than $0.01 towards these developments. Bureaucrats know they are out of power in the world where the Preliminary Specification operates. Seeing the devastation that the industry went through in 1986 I knew that they would not survive another downturn due to low oil and gas prices like the one experienced then. When the technologies became available in 1991 to begin to solve the problems, that’s when I began working to make this solution real.

1986 was only on the oil side. The natural gas side of the business wasn't that big and it wasn't in that difficult of a situation. The U.S. was dealing with what was called a gas bubble, but gas prices were keeping producers above water. The natural gas prices today are so far underwater that they alone are all that is needed to drown the producer. The oil prices are now in the same territory. If producers do not begin to learn to listen to market signals and begin producing based on profitability, which they can only do with the Preliminary Specification, we will be in for a limited future.

I used to watch in awe at the phenomenon of no producer willing to cut production due to low prices. The conclusion I came to is that they can't, won't and will not ever do it. It is a bureaucratic nightmare to do so. And we see this playing out again. The time to fix it is now and these next three months will be critical to our success in delivering a product on a timely basis, or being late in terms of avoiding societal difficulties.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Monday, August 31, 2015

Parallels to the Former Soviet Union

With commodity prices as low as they are. The discussion in the marketplace has turned to the fact that producers will continue to produce as long as their cash costs are covered. This is the beginning of the destruction of the industry. Cannibalizing the business to pay for the overhead is a strategy of fools. It won't be too long under this scenario that we will find that oil and gas is unable to meet the demands of society, bureaucrats will then shrug their shoulders and say, oh well. This irresponsibility and capitulation by these bureaucrats shows that they are only interested in their own “take.” The laying off of engineers and earth scientists has also begun in earnest. What we saw in 1986 was the bureaucrats began competing with one another in terms of the depth of their cuts to their staff. A “watch this, I can cut even deeper than you” attitude. This trend will become evident in this upcoming quarter as they try to show who is the most prudent, and cash conserving, of the bunch.

Remember these engineers and earth scientists are highly educated. Probably average ten years of specific oil and gas experience. Are in their mid thirties and are facing a layoff! Not because of anything they did, only because the bureaucrats were too self interested and uncaring about the business to concern themselves with the long term. Remember too that I have been writing about these issues for almost ten years. Plenty of time for the powers that be to have done something. These engineers and earth scientists may be fully committed to the oil and gas industry. Have it flowing in their blood and are willing to cut the bureaucrats some slack. However, the poaching that technology and other industries may do of highly educated and dedicated people, as these other industries pick up, will be one of the key reasons that the capacity and capabilities of the oil and gas industry are permanently degraded.

Under the current scenario we will however have a fully staffed bureaucracy at the controls. And as the prices turn up, as the Saudi’s strategy has become successful and the shale era slides into the history books as the latest .dom, real estate, shale bust, we can sit back and think that with the endowment of those shale resources, with all that value that was unlocked by those brilliant technologies. We didn't have enough sense to make two nickels to rub together. It will be at that time the retirement of this brain trust, I’m talking about the bureaucrats and being sarcastic here, will occur and the complete collapse of the industry will have taken place. There are always imports from less reliable countries that aren't as advanced as we “enlightened” people are.

This doesn't have to happen. And by no means should it happen. But it is. In the Preliminary Research Report (2004) I noted that there were similarities between the former Soviet Union and the way in which the industry was operating. The Soviets collapsed due to the inability of letting markets decide what to do. The same thing is happening here. The bureaucrats don't do anything. They produce whether or not they should or shouldn’t. No one looks to the price as the determining factor as whether or not they should produce. Who cares what we get for the product, just produce it. It was foolish in 1986 and it is really foolish today. It will lead us to our demise in the same manner that the former Soviet Union faced. Complete collapse.

The Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model implements the price maker strategy on an industry wide basis. Using the profitability of the property as the determination of why a property should be produced or shut-in. A producer can maximize their profits at any level of its production profile due to the nature of all costs becoming variable in the industry under the Preliminary Specification. If the property doesn’t produce, then it incurs no costs, not even overheads. Therefore maximizing the profitability of the producers profitable properties, saving the reserves for the day in which they can be produced profitably and most importantly, removing the marginal production from the commodity marketplace.

Funding the Preliminary Specifications budget is how we will avert the nightmare scenario the bureaucrats are leading us down. The stock market is repricing itself on the expectation that interest rates will be rising over the next few years. This means that all asset classes will have to perform at higher levels, and that can be most easily achieved through lower asset values. This is killing the bureaucrats stock portfolios and their pension plans. They therefore are going to want to hang on for a little longer than they originally planned for. So the total destruction of the industry is pretty much assured if we keep them in control.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Friday, August 28, 2015

Money and Power, Part III

Members of our user community have the power to ensure that society is provided with the energy resources it needs. This power is obtained through the licensing and control of the Intellectual Property of the Preliminary Specification and its derivative works. With this in hand the user community is able to implement the policies and procedures within the industry to manage it on the basis of providing the producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. They are also able to make the necessary changes to those policies and procedures, and the business model, to ensure that the industry maintains its competitive and profitable stature.  This is not your grandfathers user community. Participation doesn’t denote endless ceremonial attendance at useless mandatory meetings. It means that you are the one with the power to make the industry operate. This is why the bureaucrats love us so much. The manner in which we are structured here renders the bureaucrats power and influence in the industry to the ash heap of history.

The Intellectual Property is comprised of the Preliminary Specification, any of the other information contained on the wiki, and the ten years of research contained on this blog. These are what will be the base of the user communities work. It is the business model. Our budget will fund the user communities determination of what and how each process will need to be in order for it to be developed by our developers. This is the critical detailed work needed to fill in the gaps of how the industry actually operates. How people do their jobs and what they actually do. This work, however, will be unique in that it will be under the basis of the Preliminary Specifications new business model where service providers will be using the software and providing the services to the producers. A fundamentally different way of organizing the industry. Providing producers with unlimited flexibility in their operations.

I am the beneficial owner of the copyright of the Preliminary Specification and all that is contained within the blog and wiki. That provides me with the ability, through licensing, to control the development and ownership of the derivative works. The user community is paid by People, Ideas & Objects for the work that is done during our development, and the service providers will earn revenues that are a replacement of the producers current G&A costs. Two significant revenue streams, and since service providers will be owned by user community participants, a significant business opportunity for those that have contributed to this community.

The licensing of the Intellectual Property works on the basis that I pay for your work which in turn earns me your copyright and I add this to the overall Intellectual Property. The licensing then grants the user community participant with access to all of the Intellectual Property in an unencumbered manner. It is in this way that I am able to use the Intellectual Property to raise the initial budget, and subsequent annual funds needed to support these communities. Without this licensing mechanism the producers would be subject to licensing from a large population of the user community. And members of the user community would be subject to significant cross licensing requirements within the community. An otherwise unworkable situation. In turn user community participants can look forward to building a business on the basis of participating in the user community and managing their own service provider where they provide the People, Ideas & Objects software and their services to their profitable oil and gas producer clients.

The larger point of this blog post regarding licensing is to ensure that the user community has the power to affect change. If change is needed only the user community needs to be addressed. People, Ideas & Objects will only ever send invoices for the costs of development and the user community to the producers. We do not, and never will have any Service Level Agreements. If producers require anything contained in the Preliminary Specification or its derivative works they have only one community in which to talk to. The user community. It is there they will find the people who are able, willing and empowered to make the software and the services work for the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producers. People, Ideas & Objects are a dedicated software development capability provided exclusively to the user community.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Money and Power, Part II

We are working to provide society with the energy it needs to ensure that it fully develops. We are concerned that the issues the oil and gas industry faces will lead to declines in its capacity and capabilities. Leaving people with poor choices in terms of their standard of living. With 5,000 man hours of physical labor contained within each barrel of oil, we do not want to see people being forced to reduce their consumption of energy. This is why we are developing the Preliminary Specification. People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and the service providers are committed to this and are focused on providing the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations.

Yesterday we noted the loss in market capitalization of the top 14 producers as a result of the decline in oil prices this past year. That was a little over $700 billion, and if we took into consideration the rest of the industry, and called it a rounding error, that number may well be $1 trillion. I really like the ring when anyone say’s trillion. This is the value that would be returned to the producers if they were to fund our budget and set in motion the means to provide the oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. That is a fact, the stock markets take all known information into consideration. This is how Uber has a $50 billion market capitalization. The future holds that promise. And with the Preliminary Specification under development, the oil and gas producers would be able to overcome their issues and provide for profitable operations to their investors. Recovering the previous loss in market capitalization.

Then if you take our value proposition. Which is valued in the area of $45.7 trillion. Note I could easily round this up as well to $50 trillion, but I'll stick with the $45.7 trillion. $50 trillion makes it sound less viable! These are calculated on the basis of the price increases of oil and gas as a result of the price maker strategy of the decentralized production model of the Preliminary Specification. Doubling, and in the case of natural gas at least tripling, the value of the commodity in the marketplace is what is needed on a go forward basis. Taking the present value of that over the next 25 years provides us with the incremental value of $5.7 trillion. The other $40 trillion comes from the fact that the pricing model that we employ includes the costs of capital in each volume produced. Producers are hoarding assets as if they are vintage relics of a bygone time. Hanging on to them until the next millennium. These capital costs need to flow to the income statement, and will do so within three years under People, Ideas & Objects. This will force the industry to recognize the costs of capital on a go forward basis. These costs have been projected to be $20 to $40 trillion in the next 20 years. And it will also remove the capital costs that are currently sitting on the balance sheets of the near bankrupt producers. Forcing the industry to finally account for those costs.

So there you have the deal of this century. We fix the industry and what currently ails it. Provide it with the means to deal with its problems in the future by destroying the bureaucrats “muddle along” strategy. Give the investors back the money they have lost in the reduction of their market capitalization in the past year. And provide a sound and profitable business that generates real earnings for the next 25 years. One that you can invest in profitably. And all that has to happen is that our budget of $4 billion, not trillion, although that would be a deal even if it was trillion, in investment is provided.

If I were an oil and gas investor I think I would jump on that. This past century of passive investment has led us to some dismal times in the economy these days. I wonder if business in the 21st century will continue to follow this model of passive investments? It would seem to me that we provide a good example of why the old model should be tossed. There is the potential of another alternative as well. That greed may have infected the bureaucrats who want a bigger cabin and faster boat. And therefore would consider funding our budget themselves on the basis that they could stick around for a little longer, just long enough to get those new toys.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Money and Power, Part I

In order for the industry to make the changes that are needed. So that we can provide the mid to long term supply of profitable oil and gas that society needs. We will need to have effective tools for People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers. The two critical tools that are necessary are the budget and power necessary to implement the Preliminary Specification. It is these that are at issue with the bureaucracy. Particularly the power which is their current domain and requires that they lose control of it. We take their power through the implementation of our user community and the Intellectual Property that makes up the Preliminary Specification, and all that will be derived from it. Without the Intellectual Property under our control the user community would not have the power to make these changes and be successful.

With the current commodity prices the bureaucrats have a choice. Bankruptcy or fund the Preliminary Specification. I don't expect them to do anything but what we can see is the stock price of the producers continue to degrade. Two Canadian companies of interest are Encana and PennWest. Encana is trading at a little over $6 compared to $90 a few years ago. And PennWest is trading at $0.60 compared to as much as $35. A while ago I published the decline in the top 14 producers stock price from the initial decline in oil prices. Then it was $420 billion. Now it's $711.6 billion, an increase of 69%. In some cases these losses represent more than half of the firm's market cap. Therefore it might be reasonable to assume that we are halfway towards most of them declaring bankruptcy. However, that would be unreasonable because the bureaucrats have been relying on hedges for their oil for the past year. Those hedges have now expired so the bleeding will just now have begun in earnest. Bankruptcies could be imminent.

Seven hundred billion dollars isn't a lot when you just write it out in a sentence. These losses don’t affect the bureaucrats pay, bonus, pension or benefits. The value of their options are diminished of course. But when you're winning on four of the five forms of compensation you don't quibble. People ask me why I abuse the bureaucracy so purposely. First of all it's their fault. None of this has to happen. Second they have fought me at every turn and at every opportunity since I published that the Joint Operating Committee is the key organizational construct of the innovative producer. They can see the writing is on the wall and chose to fight me. It is important for people to understand why the Preliminary Specification hasn’t been adopted in the marketplace. If I wrote about it here, and if I did not clearly identify the bureaucrats as the / my issue, then people would wonder why it’s not working. Clearly it is not working due to the vested interests.

The amount of the losses in market cap that have been experienced by the investors in this industry. Are able to be recovered by funding the budget of People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and the service providers. This has to be the best investment that anyone could ever make. $4 billion down and you get back $711.6 in pure capital value. And that is just the losses that we can identify on the oil side since the price decline. There is the hidden value lost over the past five years on the natural gas side of the business. It might be just as significant. However, it's still August and there are many more weeks of vacation left for the bureaucrats to enjoy at the cabin. So don't bother them, their busy. We'll speak more about our power and the user community tomorrow.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Monday, August 24, 2015

Let's Move On, We Have a Job To Do

There should be little doubt in anyone’s mind that oil and gas is in serious jeopardy. We have been writing about the difficulties in the industry for the past number of years and offering our Preliminary Specification as the solution. The time is upon us for the investor class, or the bureaucrats themselves even, to act by funding our budget and proceeding with the changes to implement the Preliminary Specification, the decentralized production model and the price maker strategy. I have never seen or could have imagined the level of difficulties the industry is currently in. This next quarter will be very difficult. Leading to several years of devastation in the industry. Like the failure of the former Soviet Union's socialist ways, we may be seeing the parallel situation playing out in the bureaucracy of oil and gas. Nothing was produced in the USSR because everyone was in bread lines waiting to purchase bread. The situation in oil and gas is the opposite, no one can stop the overproduction because its someone elses fault. 1986 was a bad recession in oil and gas. I can remember the effect it had on the people that were “lucky” and didn't lose their jobs. This lingering effect took many years, and sometimes decades, for people to overcome the impact of the difficulties the industry faced then.

That is our history and what is presented as the way the business is. No one questions if it is valid in 2015. I say its BS and is unacceptable in this day and age that an industry relies on the barbaric tools of laying people off to deal with the business cycle. Particularly when the Preliminary Specification specifically deals with the issues of overproduction. What I suggest we need to do is look beyond our history and the bureaucrats status quo and see what is really happening to the industry as a result of the inactions of the powers that be. There will be bankruptcies. The people in New York who were bullish on oil and gas as little as three months ago are already licking their wounds today. Carlyle Group’s Claren Road Hedge Fund is facing significant redemptions (of up to 48% of the funds value) based on losses from investments in Greece and energy. This fund was valued at $11 billion just a few months ago and is now at $2 billion. October reviews of the producers reserves by the banks that have loaned money will be a nail biting exercise for bankers and producers alike. KKR owned Samson Resources will be filing for bankruptcy in September. Predictions of oil hitting $30 are common, as are the thinking that this will be a long term difficulty. We're not talking about natural gas prices today.

Taking these financial losses into context, the financial community has long memories. It was those that believed that the industry needed to be built out in the 1990’s that made the investments then. Thinking that their day would come when commodity prices rose in the early 2000’s soon found that the bureaucrats were in the trough feeding first, leaving the scraps to the investors. Now that prices are in a downward cycle, and shale has introduced a new dynamic, these bureaucrats couldn't care less. They have their lakefront cabins and pensions in place. What the investors have discovered about oil and gas is that there never was any room for them at the table, once they had invested their money that is. All they can do now is sit back and admire their oil and gas investments bloated balance sheets, full of assets that represent their investments which have not and may never show a hint of profit.

The point here is that the investment community will be hard pressed to invest in an industry that has been so poorly managed. Thousands of monkeys on typewriters came up with a better plan. Even though the investors had cut off most of the funding in the financial crisis, the bureaucrats found other ways to keep their money mills churning to keep themselves fat and happy. Its not just the commodity price decline that will be the issue that is played out in the industry in the next few years. It is the reputation of those that managed the industry in the past few decades. All the way back to 1986 will be in question, and the answer for the people who will be asking, will not be kind or in the favor of the bureaucrat.

The bigger issue here of course is that the oil and gas industry is the most important industry in the world. It is the energy that fuels our society and how we maintain our civility. It sustains our way of life. With a disgruntled investor group, a complacent bureaucracy that will in all likelihood just quit when they are held to account and a commodity super cycle downswing all at the same time is more than what the industry can handle. We risk the ability to maintain our capacities and capabilities to meet the needs of society and our way of life in the mid to long term as a result of being in this difficult time. We need to be smart about this and overcome our history, our behaviors and begin the development of the industry that will fuel society and our way of life for the remainder of this century. We know, and there is no doubt about this, that the bureaucrats have proven themselves incapable, incompetent and undesirous of doing so. Lets move on, we have a job to do.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

The Issue

The issue in oil and gas is that it is unprofitable. There have been changes in the industry in the past decades that remain unaddressed by the current bureaucracy who operate the industry. These changes, which include the move away from the scarcity of the resource base, to an abundance of the commodities in North America. Require new business models in which the oil and gas industry can operate. The bureaucracy will have none of it, and refuse to make any changes to their existing business model. They are fine with the status quo, as the structure of the industry serves their personal interests. Outside of the personal interests of the bureaucracy, no value is realized by anyone. Profits are the source of an industry's health. Other than paper profits that are derived by never recognizing the capital costs incurred in the exploration and production process. The industry is as unprofitable as an industry could conceivably be. Surviving on other people’s money for the past decade. A never ending downward slide in the quality of the capital that has been sourced by the industry has occurred since 2008. Relying mostly on junk bonds these past few years, this avenue may too be closed to them as the junk bond markets fall into distress as a result of the quality of their investments in oil and gas.

As a result of this lack of profitability governments are short changed on their tax base, investors realize no share in earnings and no upside in their investments, staff are cut and the service sector has their revenues slashed or are faced with cannibalizing their assets. Only the bureaucrats are happy. The changes that are occurring in the industry as a result of the shale discoveries are what makes all the difficulties ever present. The over production as a result of the shale discoveries will continue for as long as there are shale reserves. In natural gas that is best measured in centuries. At the same time the costs of these reserves are amongst the highest of any form of oil and gas resource. High costs, low prices and overproduction would lead most people to adjust their business model. The self interested bureaucrats have no motivation or desire to make any changes. They are fine, thank you.

We discussed the difficulties that the industry was having and how the bureaucrats needed to make the changes by adopting People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification. It contains the decentralized production model that enables the “price maker” strategy for the oil and gas industry. Producers will suspend production that can not be produced profitably. A simple idea but one that can not be implemented in the current bureaucrats business model. What is needed is the budget to build the Preliminary Specification and for development of the user community. And at the same time have our service providers develop alongside of these. This change would solve the problems, for that there is consensus. There is consensus that this change will eliminate the need and the desire for the bureaucracy as well. Hence why no money has been forwarded to People, Ideas & Objects.

Information Technology is providing the means for many changes in many industries. The disintermediation of many industries has occurred, is ongoing and eventually will affect all industries. Oil and gas is not immune. However, I would suggest that the oil and gas instance is acute as a result of the unaddressed changes that have recently shaped the industry. It is a financial basket case. It will not survive for long in the manner that it is being operated. It is also the most important industry in terms of our advanced societies survival. A robust and healthy, or profitable oil and gas industry is necessary for the continuation of our species.

If we secured our budget today, we have many years of work ahead of us. Don't expect “instant” miracles from us. We have a significant undertaking to accomplish and that takes time. More time than the industry has money? Probably. It will be a difficult transition.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Not a Technologically Focused Solution

Its a difficult thing to state as the head of a software development firm. That we are not a technologically focused solution. There are many of those solutions in the marketplace and the bureaucrats are pleased to be working with those providers, and losing money doing so. We are living in exciting times from an Information Technology point of view. It is the beginning of the Information Technology revolution that we are experiencing in this day and age. There have been many attempts to implement these technologies into the marketplace of oil and gas producers. Most have failed due to a focus on the elements of some technological breakthrough that was going to solve the producers difficulties. All these other applications were attempting to make it so, however the technologies were too immature to undertake the load that they needed to carry. And technology is not part of the solution.

If we are not a technology focused software company then what exactly are we doing in business. People, Ideas & Objects have always focused on the producer firm and most particularly the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative and profitable oil and gas producer. If you read the Preliminary Specification we have included some discussion of the specific Oracle applications we will use to support our modules. This is to give the reader a better understanding of the overall technological architecture of our product. But the Preliminary Specification deals specifically with the issues and opportunities of the Joint Operating Committee and producer. It details the “what if” we did use the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the producer. “How” and “What” would the producer, Joint Operating Committee and industry operate? This question is answered in the Preliminary Specification. It is about the ways and means of how people will work in the business and in the industry. It is not about technology.

The second aspect that proves our claim that we are not a technologically focused solution is that our primary focus is, and always will be on the user, or as we call them the user community participant. They are the ones that we have endowed with the power and control over the Intellectual Property that makes up the Preliminary Specification. Anyone who wants or needs to make a change in the software that runs the industry, there is only one group in which they need to see, the user community. Our developers will respond to the user community only. We are deaf, dumb and blind to all others. This commitment to being user community focused runs throughout People, Ideas & Objects. Review of our Revenue Model will show you that the ability and capability of this focus will continue. Our capital structure will not be compromised or redirected away from the user community focus. A difficult requirement which affects our development budget and the manner in which we are structured. This renders the shares of People, Ideas & Objects of little value as they will not be sold. And therefore my compensation comes about as a result of the Intellectual Property royalties that I earn. It is in our genetic code that the capital structure will not circumvent or reprioritize our direction away from the user community focus.

We provide the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. That is the guiding principle of People, Ideas & Objects, our user community participant and the service providers who are involved in the community. This is what we sharpen our pencils for. The industry has to become dynamic, innovative and profitable. In order to do that it must be able to change the organizational methods it operates under. That requires that the industry acquire a software development capability consistent with what People, Ideas & Objects are providing. Our user community and service providers are a big part of that technological offering. However, they are also the other half of the equation. They are the service oriented part of the necessary solution to the success of our software. Technology is not going to resolve these problems. Its going to be the people who have the Information Technologies that are made available to them. And that is what I have done with People, Ideas & Objects. I have secured the Intellectual Property necessary for this ecosystem to operate. I have endowed the user community with the power and control of that Intellectual Property. We are now developing the user community, and as soon as our budget is secured, we will develop the software development capabilities to fulfill our value proposition to the oil and gas industry.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Monday, July 13, 2015

Commodity Prices

It’s been a bad week for oil and gas prices. It would seem to me that the bureaucrats who used the recent strength in these commodity prices, when in March they moved from $50 to $60 in May. While at the same time they were trying to convince their shareholders that all would be well “next year” at their annual general meetings. Selling this impossible scenario as the theme to cover for their poor performance of 2014. We have also recently learned that those “earnings” that were sold to the investors in the 2014 annual reports, were supported handsomely by $90 hedges. Now not only are the prices going down, again, and substantially, but the producers hedges have been expiring and they are fully exposed. There must be something about chronic overproduction of commodities that prices just fail to appreciate.

Its not that I feel any great enjoyment at the misery that is being experienced in the oil and gas marketplace today. People are getting laid off in the producers, service industry and elsewhere. Investors are losing significant money, and as we have documented in this blog, they are losing far more than what the producers are reporting. It didn’t have to be this way but bureaucrats will be bureaucrats. Natural gas prices have been declining for over five years. Plenty of time for the Preliminary Specification to have been developed. Its just that for that niggling fact that the Preliminary Specification does eliminate the calcified bureaucracy as the only reason that it hasn’t been developed.

The fact is though that low commodity prices are the greatest gift that I could ever ask for. I can now say that I got lucky. It provides the justification to go through the changes to make the Preliminary Specification the manner in which the industry operates. Our value proposition is the reason why and secondly, these bureaucrats will never change. They can't and won’t. We have seen a level of disintermediation in other industries such as the makers of cellular phones. This past week Microsoft says for all intents and purposes they are out of the smartphone business. Nokia, which they bought were the dominant brand less than ten years ago. Its not just these industries that have been disintermediated. Look at all the industries that are now being lined up to have the process undertaken by some upstart. Uber, AirBnb and Lyft are what are now called Unicorns. Private companies that are able to raise money on the basis of billion dollar valuations. Something that has never been seen before. And there are now over 100 of these beasts.

Oil and gas is being disintermediated by People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification. We are developing the software, the user community and service providers that will remove and replace the bureaucracy from its comfortable position in oil and gas today. We will be changing the organizational structure of the industry to one in which the producer firm can compete based on their competitive advantages of their earth science and engineering capabilities, and their land and asset base. We are using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative and profitable oil and gas producer. It is the legal, financial, operational decision making, cultural, communication, strategic and innovation framework of the industry. When we align the seven frameworks of the Joint Operating Committee with the compliance and governance frameworks of the hierarchy. We achieve a speed, accountability, innovativeness and profitability in our producer organizations. We also enable the decentralized production model that provides the individual producer with the price maker strategy needed in today’s shale enabled oil and gas business.

Key to this transition is the user community that we are in development of. It is these people who will be the critical resource that makes the Preliminary Specification the software that it can be. Software that isn't defined, designed and developed by the user is useless. And that is why we have endowed our user community with the power to effect the changes necessary in the oil and gas industry.

We can continue on in the losing ways of today's oil and gas industry. I’m sure we can all assume what will be said by the bureaucrats next annual report season, or even the next ten after that. They are on record that the business was going to improve and they had it under control. Well it doesn't look so to me. To learn what is really happening map the last five years of natural gas prices as being what the future holds for oil prices. That’s what is going to happen until People, Ideas & Objects budget is funded and we are able to bring this solution to the marketplace. With our value proposition creating upwards of $45.7 trillion in incremental value over the next 25 years, I would think that it's time.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Friday, July 10, 2015

Why Not the Government's?

Many people have suggested that the various governments in North America. That are in oil and gas regions have a net benefit as a result of People, Ideas & Objects value proposition. Which is correct in terms of both royalties and taxes. There would be much to be gained in terms of these government's getting behind People, Ideas & Objects and funding some of our budget. It would be reasonable to assume that at least one third of the value that we generate would be redirected by producers to the various governments in the form of additional royalties. And the taxes that would be paid by the producers, based on the most profitable means of oil and gas operations, we can only assume it would be significant as well.

The problem with the idea of taking money from the government in order to fund our developments is that I will never accept it. There is nothing wrong with the money per se, other than the fact that we provide oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. And we are serious about that. Royalties and taxes are two of the highest individual costs that a producer incurs. The ability and the capability to reduce these costs to the lowest possible level at all times will be People, Ideas & Objects, the user community and service providers focus. We therefore can’t be conflicted by the fact that governments were, and are potentially continuing to fund our development needs. I feel it would be a conflict of interest for us to take their money.

I have mentioned a number of times that I had an audit firm before I started down this software development avenue in 1991. It was good work. Most importantly, I guess, I was good at it. My key client was the Alberta Government and I conducted audits on the natural gas producers in the province of Alberta. Confirming their royalty submissions to ensure that they were consistent with the regulations. I was assigned to work on Amoco and Imperial Oil (Exxon's) submissions which were the two biggest producers at the time. We all know Imperial’s love for meetings and their point of view about their bottom line. It was during this time I learned that there was many different ways of looking at the situation. I say that jokingly in that I learned the methodology of looking at things from the Imperial point of view.

Now there are regulations, acts and bureaucrats who offer opinions on what is what and that is how the world turns. And if you accept that as fixed then you are not doing your job. On behalf of the oil and gas industry I do not accept that the regulations, acts and bureaucrats opinions are fixed in terms of royalties and taxes. There can never be a point where they are fixed. The creative process of exploration and production demands that this posture be taken in terms of how these costs, the highest costs of the producer, are handled.

Based on my experience the differences are significant. I am no longer subject to any confidentiality agreements regarding any of the producers that I audited so I am able to state anything and everything at this time. I don’t need to go into details but Imperial did not spend much on natural gas royalties. Sure they were the largest producer, and it seemed to me that they made sure they employed and deployed each molecule of natural gas within their operation four to five times before they sold it or ultimately consumed it. Figure that one out. Attaching the royalty only on the net, net, net, net sales of the firm. Receiving massive royalty deductions for their natural gas used in their heavy oil operations by deeming the source of the fuel from their own natural gas production. The point of this is that it makes a substantial difference. And one that we could not guarantee that we were undertaking on behalf of the producers if we were also receiving some of our funding from the governments that took those royalty dollars from the producers.

We will implement a capability that will replicate the “Imperial way” within the People, Ideas & Objects software development team, user community and service providers. One where our service providers who are managing a royalty or production related process can apply the regulations and acts in the best interests of the producers. But also look at the business from the point of view as to what the producer is doing and why the governments should be supportive of these activities. Negotiating and communicating with them to initiate better policies and procedures to ensure that the oil and gas industry develops in the appropriate manner and that we provide the oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Thursday, June 04, 2015

And That's the Way It Is

One of the problems that I have is that at night when I turn off the lights I glow radioactive. People know that I am associated with this 24 year legacy, and for good or bad, don’t want to be seen with something that is for all intents and purposes, bad for their career. So it is a dark green luminous radioactive discharge that I give off that repels people from wanting to be associated with this project, or me. Today is different, like every stopped watch my time has come. The problem is that I have no reach within the oil and gas industry in which I can leverage the strength of these ideas and raise our budget. This is good news for the bureaucracy. Being on the outside for so long has left me with no inside access.

I desperately want to build this software. There is very little that I can do to take it any closer than what it is today without our budget being secured. So how we get to that point, and when, is something that is unknown and unknowable by me at this time. I’m on the outside. And maybe it is that I have a flawed understanding of the situation in the oil and gas industry. That everything really is ok. And that the bureaucracy will have things well in hand in short order. That muddling it through will work out one more time. And maybe the Preliminary Specification is just too radical and too extensive of surgery to undertake in any industry at anytime. I think the answer to all of these questions are out of the hands of any one individual. And fate will be what determines the outcome of our efforts. I've provided a choice.

And I'll be satisfied with that. It is these past 24 years that I would not trade for anything. If you don’t look upon these as an adventure then you probably couldn't survive them. It has been an adventure. And I have survived. I look forward to what the future holds. I think I'll be taking a bit of time off. I will return June 22, 2015.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Remember Its Cut and Run

It’s coming up to almost one year since the pressure on oil prices began. Natural gas prices look to me like an absolute disaster will be detonated some time this summer. This due to the storage facilities filling to capacity. The bureaucrats were therefore artful in getting through another annual report season. The time to cut your losses from the oil and gas industry is now. Those individuals at Cenovus last week were the first, but maybe they were the smartest of all of the bureaucrats. Remember, it’s cut and run. Metaphorically get out of town before the problems are so big that they come looking for scalps. In an industry that has been flushing trillions of dollars down the toilet. Using first the investors money and then when that dried up, shifting to junk bonds to fuel their deception. There will be hell to pay for those standing around looking conspicuous. Remember I place the focus of the cause of this issue on the SEC and the accounting firms for their accounting policies that don't recognize the cost of capital or overhead in the operations of oil and gas producers. The fact that the bureaucracy new better is a moot point, after all what did you expect, they're bureaucrats!

What to do, who to turn to? As I have mentioned here on several occasions I have been at this for over 24 years now. And I will be at this for another 24 years. I have the solution in the Preliminary Specification. And I will develop the software derived from the Preliminary Specification and lead the user community in its development and its creation of the sub-industry of service providers. The bureaucrats want and need to capitulate, I want the job. Fund my budget and let me get the job done. What do you have to lose. Well actually a lot. Trillions of dollars in fact. Keeping these self interested bureaucrats in power any longer is counter to the best interests of everyone. The sooner we can have the Preliminary Specification, the user community and service providers established the better. And all that is required at this point is for our budget to be funded.

I foresee a lot of pain to be experienced in the oil and gas sector. Approximately equivalent to what the banking sector saw in 2008. This is a disaster. The opportunity is therefore to fund us and let us get on with our job. And then wait until the fire sale of oil and gas properties begins. Big properties, little properties, producing properties, non-producing properties, profitable and unprofitable properties. Then when we have the Preliminary Specification, the user community and service providers operational you can have those acquired properties operated for you on the basis that we guarantee you the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. And that is how this transition to the new oil and gas environment will occur.

If you think otherwise. That an organization methodology conceived of in the 1920’s, built on technologies available in the 1980’s and with a bureaucracy that has ossified since the 1990’s. That an organization of that pedigree in this market has a chance. Then your choice is made up and I can do nothing to convince you otherwise. I found this quote about the times that we find ourselves in today. Its from Tom Goodwin of Havas Media.

Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles. Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner, creates no content. Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory. And Airbnb, the world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate. Something interesting is happening.

But maybe, just maybe oil and gas is immune to these types of forces. And the bureaucracy will succeed in fooling some new source of unknown capital. Beyond the junk bond market that is. That will line up to invest in a business that can’t stop overproducing or recognize any of its costs. And we can all just sing kumbaya and drink penakolada’s. If so, then you can count me out.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here

Friday, May 29, 2015

I Know, It's Ridiculous!

We have now entered the phase in which the bureaucracy have become untouchable. Annual report and annual general meeting season are over. Accountability is no more. As I mentioned the other day, thoughts move to the cabin and the pension benefits that will be earned over the next nine months of relative stress free living. Has anyone noticed that the level of discussion in the industry regarding the situation that it's in is non-existent! And isn't it odd that the “strength” in oil and gas prices seems to have abated. What to do? I guess one could join the crowded highways and enjoy the summer months with the bureaucrats. Or, depending on your point of view. That is if you agree with the points that I have made here before. And you are an investor in oil and gas, or are a potential user community participant there is much that we can do while the brain trust parties the summer away.

It is ridiculous to expect that our budget will be funded. Just as it is ridiculous to think that the bureaucrats will change and fix the problems in the industry. And just as ridiculous to think that the ridiculous tens of trillions of dollars of our value proposition will come about without the Preliminary Specification. And so here we sit and wait for that one unhappy individual that realizes that as ridiculous as all this is. Someone has to pull the trigger and fund these developments before it's too late. Too late being the bureaucracy find the pension benefits too healthy and the cabin too comfortable to bother with accounting for their actions three months of the year and retire. Then there will be no one and nothing in which to operate the industry. But that is a ridiculous assertion.

All of this doesn't seem too ridiculous to me. There are a large number of people who read these words each and every day. Some may be doing it for entertainment, others may agree with the ridiculous nature of the problem. In most cases they may be living with the difficulties in the oil and gas producers and know that there is a better way and see how the Preliminary Specification can help to solve those issues. They also know that their careers are not going anywhere with the status quo and are stuck in an unchanging environment that is unhealthy for all concerned. It is these people that the Preliminary Specification appeals to. And it is these people that I see as the potential market for the user community participant.

The banking crisis that we experienced in 2008 was evident to everyone, everywhere for many years. Watching house prices rise to levels that no sane person would want to participate in. Having mortgages for those houses being issued to people without full time work, or liar loans as they were called, and then having those mortgages “securitized” and sold to “willing” investors was a bad business model. Then they took it the level of creating synthetic derivatives of mortgages. And thats when people really began to make money. Anyway we all know the history and the fact that the banks are still not able to stand on their own without massive, unprecedented fed stimulus. Which has become about as normal as the summertime commute to the cabin.

The business model of the oil and gas producer is no longer functioning to provide any value to anyone. Except the bureaucrats. They need to keep full production to ensure that they can cover their salary, benefits, pensions and perks. Outside of that who cares what happens to the industry. The problem is that there is no fed to flood the market with deliverability if the oil and gas industry fails in the manner that the banks did in 2008. There is no “adult” supervision. There is only the energy that we depend on for everything that we are. But then again, in a very big way, that too is ridiculous.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here