Showing posts with label failure. Show all posts
Showing posts with label failure. Show all posts

Monday, March 18, 2024

These Are Not the Leaders We're Looking For, Part IX

 Introduction

North American producer firms need to ask themselves how they’ll address the issues present in their business. How will they reestablish a basis of building value throughout the greater oil & gas economy. People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification provides oil & gas producers with the most profitable means of oil & gas operations, everywhere and always. Last week People, Ideas & Objects detailed some of the issues producers need to undertake to deal with the natural gas price issues. Noting our Preliminary Specification will provide accounting information to determine each individual North American properties profitability. Therefore providing the ability to determine why a property is unprofitable and the justification for shutting-in of any unprofitable production. And how there may be dozens of other natural gas price related issues that need to be addressed by producer officers and directors. Issues such as excessive storage capacity and LNG’s propensity to realize substantial unclaimed value from natural gas producers exploration and production. 

We noted producers will need to invest substantial efforts in rehabilitating the natural gas marketplace due to the damage reflected there. These are but a brief listing of what is necessary to deal with just the natural gas price issue. What producer officers and directors should be concerned with would include a list of serious issues possibly in the hundreds when considering the full scope of their business. To mouth the words “muddle through” and issue a few promises in another press release, ignores and avoids the significance of the issues, the state of affairs in oil & gas and the dire scope of their consequences. 

“Muddle Through”

Nothing is being done to identify these issues in the industry. When the value of the industry is believed to be generated by drilling wells. Solely involved in the spending of money. What could go wrong and what more could there be to do? This has carried on to the point that serious damage began to be realized throughout the industry. Beginning with the July 1986 oil price collapse. If “muddle through” was not the strategy and operating procedure of the industry this should have been the first fire alarm that called everyone to immediate action. It was not. 

It’s 2024 and I can say that there does not seem to be any difference in the attitudes and behaviors of the leadership in oil & gas. As a result they have lost on a comprehensive basis throughout the industry the faith, goodwill, trust and belief they’ll be able to do anything about the situation they’ve stumbled blindly upon, being the consequences of their own inaction. It is incomprehensible that since 2015 their own investors have denied them additional capital due to the inability to understand what it is they’ve done. Officers and directors assumed, given time, their investors would see the wisdom of their ways and relent to once again forward the proceeds to continue their “muddle through” ways.

Dividends?

The one change investors have been able to achieve is to discipline producers to be paying dividends on a regular basis. I would suggest calling these dividends is a bit of a stretch for me. The performance of the industry has been so degraded through the process of “muddle through” as to be about 40% of what a competitive industry would be able to perform. I’ll address why in the next paragraph. What I want to do here is focus on why dividends are important to the health, prosperity and competitiveness in the industry. The following is a quote from Milton Friedman in his book “Capitalism and Freedom.

Dividends to shareholders keep the firm competitive and fit. Right or wrong, good or bad decisions are made. The question is who should be the one making the bad decisions? The corporation or its owners with their own money? The answer for me is obvious, you should do what you want with your money. If producers want or need money, it should be within their domain of understanding that they can have all they ever wanted by running a competitive and profitable business. 

Capitalization Policies

Where the performance of the oil & gas industry is and why People, Ideas & Objects assess it as abysmal. Capitalization under SEC guidelines permits a producer to include costs up to the present value of the proven reserves. This is the limit of what is acceptable under the guidelines for oil & gas exploration and production. North American producers treat it as a target to be reached by the producer each year. Seemingly unaware it would be the most competitive producer who had retired their costs in their property, plant and equipment account. For every dollar that is recorded in property, plant and equipment that would be considered an overvaluation from any reasonable point of view. And therefore has an equal amount of overreported profitability. Based on this method of SEC reporting, it creates a situation where the spending of money is literally profitable. 

When profitability is reported with little effort outside of just spending money. It has a number of insidious effects on the organization. Who is going to criticize those involved, who is going to demand better and why would they ask such questions? Those who are endowed with the authority to spend money take on the aura of having the midas touch. Investors who see the profitability as what they assume it means, real profits, provide the spenders with more. The point of this is the SEC regulations came into being in the late 1970s and since then this culture of spending has driven a deterioration in competitive performance of the North American producers. 

The Consequences

Overproduction of North American oil & gas is chronic with intermittent outright collapses and even negative commodity prices. We can assume that over the past 45+ years there has been overproduction, or unprofitable production as we describe it, in the North American market throughout that period. Therefore commodity prices have been depressed everywhere and always. Secondly, any spending is less efficient than what would otherwise be the case. And I may only be thinking about the creative executive compensation when I state that. Time slips from the point of view of deadlines and what is acceptable in terms of individual contributions. These become cultural norms and are eroded further as time goes on and there is no one left to say otherwise. Claiming to be innovative while ignoring commodity price collapses for 38 years, and People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification for 33 years doesn’t qualify anyone to call themselves innovative. 

Therefore, what is the level of competitive performance in North American oil & gas? Extremely poor due to the fact that capital assets are depleted over decades in almost every producer's case. When other industries provide the opportunity to process investments in one to two years and not only double but pay out their money. A ten percent dividend on a 40% performing business model with bloated assets which return the capital over a 10 to 15 year period is an uncompetitive performance in today’s capital markets. 

When investors cut funding, this too should have been an immediate call to action and focused the officers and directors attention. The significance of the investors' action and its consequences has created no discussion outside of this blog for almost a decade! When individuals start organizations, such as People, Ideas & Objects for example. To address these points and offer solutions that would remedy these issues. Warning of dire, trillion dollar consequences if not addressed. And these people are only laughed at, run out of town and dealt with violently. That is my 33 year history of attempting to provide solutions for them to fix their business. In 2023 People, Ideas & Objects documented the fact that North American producers lost $4 trillion in natural gas revenues in the past 17 years. Only recently has attention towards these issues begun. And only in the form of enhanced volumes of press releases. Four companies were moved to the point of issuing press releases claiming action will be taken. Not one call to People, Ideas & Objects however. 

What we can state unequivocally today is that there has been no commercial value gained from the production of 764 TCF of natural gas produced during this period. Attempting to shut-in production today, when producers' systems are inadequate to identify the source of any unprofitable production will prove futile. People, Ideas & Objects suspects this may be the reason behind this activity and is designed to prove the Preliminary Specification ability to shut-in production doesn’t work. (Please review the prior post.)

This culture has grown to become one of inaction and acceptance of failure. Smoothing things over with the opaque nature of their accounting and systems that were conceived of in the 1960s. Systems and accounting which have subsequently developed on the basis they were a waste of money that could be better spent in drilling and completion. And to avoid at all costs and over the course of the time since their design. Producers' lack of accountability has created incoherent accounting information that is not used or relied upon. Where their understanding of their business and business terminology is so poor as to account for errors in the trillions of dollars. We should note here, that producers are therefore the ultimate victims of their own conspicuous designs. 

Conclusion

Homogenized financial statements of producer firms makes it impossible to discern a producer's performance. All financial statements are of a cookie cutter formula based on the size of the production profile. Who’s the hero, and who’s the zero? Field operations being managed through reserve reports to ascertain the performance internally. No reliance or faith in the accounting information provided. Producers accounting and the few ERP software vendors' budgets are scaled back to such levels that they are barely functioning. Are these budgets designed to save money or are they to maintain the lack of accountability that the industry has now become so well known for. The quality of the information produced is not granular enough to know the dynamic implications of any actions within the organization. All that is known is drilling exposes more reserves. Reserves are valuable. People, Ideas & Objects have consistently asked if the reserves are not profitable. Where the industry demands outside forms of cash each year to sustain operations. The value of the industry is at best $0.00, and more likely substantially negative. With a future that is far more important to society than it has been in the past. A future that is far more innovative, complex and dynamic than in the past. An industry's speed that will accelerate at a much quicker pace now. The lethargy of three decades of inaction or more to finally issue a press release is unacceptable. The time that has passed, and the time it will take to determine what, how and why the industry will operate is at least a decade of difficult research ahead. Or, the Preliminary Specification that provides oil & gas producers with the most profitable means of oil & gas operations, everywhere and always is available now.


Thursday, March 14, 2024

These Are Not the Leaders We're Looking For, Part VIII

 People, Ideas & Objects has always expressed the need to undertake a deliberate long term rehabilitation of natural gas prices. When prices are diminished from 6 to 1 to greater than 50 to 1, serious damage is reflected in that market. There are structural, organizational and cultural constraints that need to be purposely addressed and resolved in order to return it to the heating value equivalent of 6 to 1. Issues such as a means in which to ensure that both storage and LNG facilities are no longer able to extract the real value from natural gas that producer officers and directors have ignored. The $4 trillion in lost revenues as one example. These are just two of what may be dozens of serious systemic and key issues of the natural gas market that need to be dealt with. 

People, Ideas & Objects are addressing two components of the oil & gas marketplace as part of those key issues. Producers' poor accounting information and its current inability to determine which property is producing a profit and why. Through our Preliminary Specification, we convert producers' overhead to a variable cost charged directly to the Joint Operating Committee. Variable based on profitable production, enabling a more flexible and responsive financial structure. And therefore enabling their ability to shut-in that property through the Joint Operating Committee, the operational decision making framework of the industry. Revising the culture of “muddle through” into one of preservation, performance and profitability based on our seven Organizational Constructs.

Benefits of the Preliminary Specifications Decentralized Production Model.

  • Creating a situation where if the property is shut-in it incurs a null operation, no profit but also no loss. 
    • Producers' corporate profitability is higher due to the fact no property losses dilute profitable ones. 
    • Securing their reserves for a time in which they can be produced profitably. 
    • Reserve costs will no longer have to make up for any losses while producing unprofitably. 
    • Maintaining reserves as low cost storage without any production or storage costs. 
  • Profitable production then returns the exploration and production investment that is needed to replace the barrels produced. That is today’s cost of all production.
    • Overhead infrastructure costs are shared across the industry. Not redundantly incurred within each and every producer firm. 
    • All overhead and depletion costs, when cost into the current month's production, are returned to the producer in the form of cash. 
    • Creating the only viable source of funding available and large enough for producers to access.
  • Markets provide one thing, a price. Which contains all the information for producers and consumers to make the appropriate decisions.
    • Commodity markets find the marginal cost when marginal production is removed from the market.
  • While shut-in producers will move the property to their work-in-progress inventory and innovatively return the property back to profitable production. 
  • People, Ideas & Objects decentralized production model is the only fair and reasonable means of production discipline available.
    • If a producer wants to produce, ensure its profitable. 
    • If it's not profitable they’ll be diminishing their revenues on all production and wasting corporate assets. 
    • Capital markets will discipline non performers.

Building an industry around these principles, establishing a new corporate culture, and securing that within our Preliminary Specification ERP software is what People, Ideas & Objects are doing. There is little that we can do with the dozens of other issues producers will need to address. What we can state is for producers’ officers and directors to be issuing a few press releases regarding some possible future, temporary and random properties being shut-in here and there. After 38 years of the first oil price collapse. Which has nothing to do with the natural gas price other than to state it was the point when both commodities began to be influenced by systemic North American overproduction. And the time in February 2024 that producers overproduction of natural gas was ultimately realized as an issue by officers and directors. And therefore at greater than 50 to 1 pricing of natural gas, it is fairly reasonable to assume that factor is understated as the oil prices have been affected by overproduction too. (fxempire.com shows many natural gas producers have announced production cuts.)

This is only a brief passing through the issues in the natural gas market. They will take many years of concerted, deliberate effort to resolve each and every aspect of the overall issue. People, Ideas & Objects are focused on our domain which makes up a small portion of the total issue. Yet after 38 years of being faced with the issue. After 33 years of myself pounding the pavement and this keyboard. Is a handful of press releases all that are necessary to resolve the issue as far as the officers and directors are concerned?

We need to put this situation in the proper context. Officers and directors do not understand what has and is happening, how to resolve it, paint a vision for the future or even offer a counter argument to our Preliminary Specification. Profitability is the only source of an industry's health and prosperity. Assuming that spending money is profitable due to all the costs being capitalized is inappropriate. The culture that has developed around this concept is failing and is unaware of the instability of the ground they stand upon. Oil & gas is not a healthy industry and has serious issues that are not remedied through superfluous statements.

Today, we stand at a crossroads, risking the loss of our opportunity to achieve energy independence. As Ernest Hemingway wrote in his Novel, The Sun Also Rises. A discussion with two characters named Mike and Bill where Bill asked “How did you go bankrupt?” Mike responds “Two ways, gradually and then suddenly.” There is no value in the industry other than what is represented on the producers balance sheets in property, plant and equipment. These will provide little resistance to the paper shredder when the time comes. We are exposed to shale technologies that have an inherent, steep decline curve that’s never been experienced industry wide before. Shale’s drilling and completion costs are exponentially larger than conventional wells. Zero support exists for the producer's capital structures. Heavily depleted field service industry capacity and capabilities. A situation not of bankruptcy but of collapsing productive capabilities. Where is the motivation to resolve this? Not in the industry leadership. 

North America may then move on to become dependent on foreign sources of oil & gas. Whether it is two or ten million barrels / day it’s irrelevant as to the volume of oil & gas needed to be imported. In the meantime these officers and directors may want to work on the idea of what it is they’ll do when consumers ask about their energy needs. If producers fail to meet the market's demand for energy, press releases will be considered an inappropriate response. The collective will of the officers and directors of the producers has now proven itself of being incapable of understanding its business. People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification is designed to rebuild the industry based on the individual efforts of those who are part of our user community and their service provider organizations. When the world is decentralizing around the Internet, the only opposing trend is the consolidation of producer firms in oil & gas. 

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

These Are Not the Leaders We're Looking For, Part VII

 People, Ideas & Objects believe finding the motivation to address long-term challenges is one of the most pressing issues for oil and gas producer officers and directors. This assumes they decide to stay and are given the opportunity to make significant changes in the industry. I may not be fully aware of the greater oil & gas economic state. What I do see outside of People, Ideas & Objects is not much activity other than an uninspired, lethargic leadership that does nothing outside of issuing press releases. 

Let's highlight the service industry's dynamics as detailed in the Preliminary Specification Resource Marketplace module. Some officers and directors assert the industry’s stability, convinced suppliers will always be there to accept their business. Money being the great motivator it is will maintain its predominance in terms of motivation. That does not mean they’ve been able to acquire the hearts and minds of those that are willing to go to the wall for the producers. In fact it is these necessary elements of dynamic industries that have been lost throughout the greater oil & gas economy. Producers use and abuse the service industry, kicking it like a proverbial dog whenever difficulties arise. If producers cut capital expenditures it's the service industry that will realize the consequences. And not in an insignificant way. Being fully dependent on the producers for their revenues, when activity is slashed officers and directors take the opportunity to ensure that substantial discounts are also realized. Leaving the service industry to make the choice to let the equipment idle and rust or keep it moving for a quarter of their asking price. (50% reduction in activity and 50% discounts.) 

The line up to be persecuted in this way has dwindled to nothing in the past decades. Therefore when times are good the service industry is accused of being lazy and greedy when unable to meet industries' excessive, booming demand. Producer officers and directors' favorite actions are blaming, excuses and creating viable scapegoats. When Covid hit the service industry they were forced to sell horse power to other industries and cut up their equipment to financially survive. Producers did nothing, protected by the comfort of the primary oil & gas industry revenues that are the exclusive domain of the officers and directors. 

Another critical issue is that producer officers and directors often discourage the development and utilization of Intellectual Property (IP) within the industry. Claiming any form of IP risks having it appropriated by powerful players, who may sideline your firm or use your ideas to fuel competition. They generally persecute any new entrant with the classic line: “they only work with big firms” and reflect to the rest of the community this is what happens to those who think they might start a business. If you have an idea, best just leave it on the sidewalk and let it be found by an officer or director to pick it up for themselves. Nowhere does the motivation to act for the business's benefit exist.

People, Ideas & Objects leverages IP to challenge the producers' status quo. (IP predominantly in the form of copyright and trade secrets.) We have established many precedences in the industry and we’re proud of our efforts and the changes that we’ve seen. The purpose of this post is to reflect on what I’m seeing in the broader business community. With oil & gas having none of its IP secured it is a proverbial gold rush at the moment. When we say that none of its IP is secured, producers operate on the basis where no IP is identified or claimed by anyone. Therefore a pool of IP was available to them at all times to use as they pleased, with no cost to them. We noted in our July 21, 2021 blog post that this was the case and we encouraged people to begin the process of securing their corner of the oil & gas IP. That way they could build a solid foundation on which to build their future service, product and IP pursuits.

Without legal protection and motivated leadership, the oil and gas industry's problems will persist, hindering its future prospects. Without the protection afforded by the law, no one will undertake the difficult tasks that need to be done to resolve these difficulties. In February 2024, producers finally began shutting-in production to address low natural gas prices. A mere 38 years after the 1986 oil price collapse from overproduction and a dozen since the publication of the Preliminary Specification. Yet today we’re expected to believe that this has always been the case, and shutting in production to support prices has been the common practice in the industry. If what should be common sense takes 38 years to be considered, no one will be spending any thought on the issues and opportunities around the oil & gas bored room. 

Well wouldn’t you know. Not only has this been happening, surreptitiously I might add, these people are NOT deploying that IP in their current positions. They will avoid the discussion and use of that until such time as the officers and directors are dispatched to the afterlife and they are free to establish their pursuit of resolving the oil & gas industries difficulties and build a secure and prosperous future for themselves and everyone else. The fact of the matter is that the United States is the most powerful economy in the world due to the fact that copyright protections are part of the U.S. Constitution. People can benefit from their efforts and ideas, and in turn society benefits by building a stronger and more robust economy. How far along in this process is difficult for me to ascertain. Engineering and geology are unfamiliar to me as professions. I am a “wanna be engineer” that spent their time in accounting, audit and ERP software. Places where tragic mistakes were resolved by flipping the pencil to erase the error, or using the delete key.

People, Ideas & Objects has built the Preliminary Specification around the foundation of Intellectual Property. It is one of three of our distinct competitive advantages and the means in which we secure how we provide the most profitable means of oil & gas operations, everywhere and always. It is how our user community, service providers and Profitable Production Rights holders are secured. 

People, Ideas & Objects are fully committed to the Profitable Production Rights as the means in which to raise the funds necessary for the Preliminary Specifications development. We understand and appreciate the concern from the rarified air of the officers and directors that it is comical to propose. It is the only means that we have available to us. And as seemingly the one group that’s more concerned with the profitability of the industry than those given the authority, responsibility, accountability and resources to ensure profitability. And just as People, Ideas & Objects proudly maintains the two ugliest websites on the Internet. I would hope that these producer officers and directors are adequately humiliated that others would need to go to such lengths to try to fix their problems, if only just to entertain them. 

Just when you think it's about to settle down, everything changes again. In the July 21, 2021 blog post I mentioned that I began my journey into securing IP as the premier personal asset to develop and hold. People, Ideas & Objects are the result of that. Recently Artificial Intelligence has come into the market and is interesting and valuable to some extent. For those who own IP, it’s solid rocket fuel. The combination of the two is something to behold. I’ll only repeat the three tiers of IP we see that are available in the market. Securing a variety of these are what will be necessary for the average person who will need to be employed soon, I believe. The first is the outright ownership of IP and the ability to contractually control it through licensing etc. The second tier is through a direct license from the original owner of the IP. These would be our user community. And the third is working for a firm that has acquired some form of IP and or license they apply a service with. What I see in oil & gas today is the proverbial gold rush and the early pioneers are moving. Others may need to hurry as the officers and directors will undoubtedly stop laughing, and possibly as soon as 37 years from now. 

The last point I need to make today is an important one from the software point of view. It is the division between explicit and tacit knowledge and the implications from IP. Explicit knowledge is what can be written down and captured in some form. Tacit knowledge is learned by doing and is unable to be captured in any form. Our user community defines explicit knowledge that our Preliminary Specification ERP software captures, and service providers then apply their tacit knowledge to enhance the software’s value.

Entrenched, inflexible leadership dominating the bored room presents the core issue in oil and gas. The solution which is necessary is an innovative, dynamic, accountable and profitable oil & gas industry that has the best interests of everyone involved. Oil & gas is not interested in accounting and administration as distinct competitive advantages. However that may be the headspace of the current officers and directors. The same can be stated for IP. Producers' competitive advantages exist in the coordination of earth science and engineering capabilities and capacities at their disposal, and their land and asset base. Only through highly motivated individuals willing and able to overcome the obstacles can the industry address producer issues and opportunities. To do so there has to be something in it for them other than officers and directors treating them as parasites. 

Monday, March 11, 2024

These Are Not the Leaders We're Looking For, Part VI

 Bloomberg’s Javier Blas wrote in an article on Thursday March 7, 2024, entitled “When the Fix for Lower Commodity Prices Isn't Low Prices.” He discusses how low nickel and natural gas prices are no longer affected by this principle, due to some fundamental changes in the costs' makeup in those markets. It’s an interesting read for the changes that have occurred in the nickel market. I would argue that the assumptions he’s operating under in natural gas are skewed by producers' specious financial statements, financial statements that appear accurate on the surface but are misleading or deceptive upon closer inspection, and their propensity to say whatever comes to mind in their press releases. 

Shale has brought about a new era in oil & gas. An era of abundance that is the polar opposite of the scarcity era that preceded it. Although producers had developed behaviors of overbuilding capacities and capabilities in the scarcity era, and did not make any changes to their underlying business if prices of oil & gas were too low to command a profit. Doing so by continuing to produce at 100% of their production profile. Shale gas has worsened the situation, distorting the pricing structure significantly. Years of deliberate action will be required to rehabilitate the oil & gas commodity markets. 

First, a quick 101 in commodity economics. The theory says that low prices force producers to reduce investment, curbing supply; they also incentive consumers to use more stuff, perhaps in new applications, lifting demand. Over time, both forces rebalance the market bringing prices to their so called mean reversion, aka, the average. But that stylized supply and supply-and-demand model assumes a fixed environment that doesn’t consider technological changes.

Javier Blas' argument is the one that producers have argued for decades. It is a product of “muddle through” and their belief that cutting capital expenditures will ultimately remedy low prices. People, Ideas & Objects has repeatedly put across its point of view regarding 'muddle through.' The cutting of industry capabilities and capacities does nothing but:

  • Aggravate and accentuate the boom / bust cycle within the industry.
    • It destroys the field service industry, forcing it to bear the consequences of producer capital cuts. 
  • Willingly destroys producers reserves while years pass for the productive capacity to either recede or market demand to increase. 
  • Is a dull, blunt instrument that commands no effort or work on the behalf of officers and directors outside of issuing a press release or two. 
    • Officers and directors continue to be rewarded with the revenues from a primary industry.

People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification enables producers to shut-in any unprofitable production within the current month. Immediately dealing with the oversupply of the commodity. These specialized financial statements, designed by People, Ideas & Objects, offer a detailed and factual account of each oil & gas property's profitability, unlike traditional ERP systems. Determining the actual profitability of the property based on actual, factual, objective and standard accounting information. The ability of a producer to determine where and how they earn their profits is unknown and unknowable in any current ERP system in the oil & gas marketplace. What they shut-in would be hit and miss as to be a losing property or one that was contributing to the bottom line. From Bloomberg.

Second, on March 4, EQT Corp., the largest US natural gas producer, said it was cutting its output by about 6% this quarter after US gas prices fell close to a 25 year low.

And please note how common place shutting in natural gas production has suddenly become.

Therefore, we are concerned that the desire of producers to finally shut-in production misses the point. They will continue to lose money on the basis their overheads are fixed, not variable as we’ve proposed in the Preliminary Specification. Although we appreciate oil & gas officers and directors' acceptance of our argument of the need to shut-in overproduction. What they're doing is inadequate without the Preliminary Specification to provide the data and information, but more importantly, to guide them to where they make their money and how. How to deal with any loss and to tune their organizations. For an industry that has a culture that has developed on the basis of “making money,” “building balance sheets” and “putting cash in the ground” by spending other people’s money. A transition to a much more sophisticated understanding of their operation must be undertaken. Merely spending money does not equate to profitability. 

In discussing the recent history regarding shale’s build out. Javier Blas emphasizes the industry talking points about the costs of natural gas production dropping from shale’s discovery and development. 

The result was a staggering increase in production, making the US the biggest exporter of liquified natural gas last year. Over time, the process has become cheaper and cheaper, lowering overall costs. Despite years of low prices, US gas output has nearly doubled since 2010.

I believe he’s implying that even with low prices, money was made to expand the throughput through shale gas development. He, like the producers investors, may have been deceived by producers' specious financial statements reflecting profitability during this period. Spending money is not profitable. 

Shale gas has four characteristics that make it unique and support the abundance era. It is substantially more costly to drill and complete, exposes prolific petroleum reserves, it achieves high deliverability and incurs early and steep decline curves. Some of these are considered in the prior quote. However, the need to spend substantial amounts of money within a few years is necessary in order to maintain the high deliverability. This can involve incremental fracing on the initial leg, drilling a second leg and fracing or other work. Higher expenses of shale compared to conventional wells generate these costs.

With the SEC’s Full Cost accounting treatment these costs are allocated equally to each molecule of proven reserves discovered. Shale is prolific for the reasonable size of its pay, however it also extends from Pennsylvania to Ohio through to New York for the Marcellus formation. The aerial extent of these reserves formations are defined by the number of states that access them. Allocating the extensive costs of drilling and completion to this level of reserves makes the capital costs appear miniscule in comparison to conventional drilling. However, the steep decline curve reflects that those reserves will not be accessible without incremental, costly and repeated reworks. These costs will be added to the initial costs on each of the remaining reserves molecules. This skews the producers capital cost per barrel of oil equivalent to the largely irrelevant stage of commercial operations. Over time what we see is that the property eventually becomes too expensive to produce as the reserves decline and the remaining capital costs are too large to produce commercially. Therefore it is abandoned and the reserves and their costs are left stranded, leaving officers and directors shrugging their shoulders. There may even be times when they realize that shale will never be commercially viable and move on to greener pastures!

Producers claiming to be 'innovative' and 'profitable' quote these capital costs. We’ve seen two phenomena regarding the cost characteristics of producer firms that we’ve never thought would happen, and have not seen in any other industry. When commodity prices were declining producer press releases were stating the firm could then produce at ten dollars less cost than previously quoted. This went through several increments from $70 / bbl to almost $30 / bbl and supported their claim of profitability first and foremost, but also their innovativeness. How does a firm whose capital costs were incurred in prior periods suddenly reduce the capital costs by such substantial margins? Are there innovations in historical accounting that I am unfamiliar with? Simply these are what are called in the industry recycle costs. Capital costs refer to the initial expenses to drill and complete wells, while recycle costs represent the hypothetical current costs to drill anew, often used by companies to suggest lower capital expenditures during periods of reduced service industry prices. When a large producer doesn’t increase their well count by much more than 5% per year, that 5% is not going to have a material impact on the historical accounting costs of the past 95%. Producers are stating that if they wanted to they can drill and complete a shale well for less than before.

I personally gripe about how an industry can claim to be innovative when it has done nothing but seek and destroy. It's the service industry that conducts the innovation in oil & gas. Those with their hands on the problem. And to argue after 33 years of doing nothing about their poor accountability and systems. I can suggest that their only innovation was of the type that Bernie Madoff was envious of. 

In most cases where companies are announcing they’re shutting-in production. I’d be concerned they would see their choice is to shut-in their conventional production and keep the shale producing. The exact opposite of what an analysis of profitable properties would be telling them to do. Conventional, it would be assumed, are older with much lower capital costs and the time passed in which to have depleted those capital costs, and therefore would have no remaining capital cost balances to deplete. Therefore being amongst the highest in terms of the profitability for the firm. The difficulty for the producer is conventional oil & gas poses less interesting scientific and engineering issues.

New entrants into the oil & gas industry will be unable to compete at anything other than the highest of costs. Figuring out new and innovative ways to bring their production on line profitably is the challenge. Therefore the fallacy of high prices cures high prices is incorrect as the assumption that low cost production will be brought on to the market is false. All the low cost production in the Preliminary Specifications price maker strategy produces 100% of the time. All the affordable reserves were produced long ago. 

From the consumer point of view, the consumption of energy may decline however that has not been proven the case. The inherent cost of oil & gas production has less and less to do with the cost of oil & gas production and much more to do with the utilities “costs” and government taxes that are conveniently attached. When the consumers value proposition from oil & gas is 10 to 25 thousand man hours of mechanical labor, consumers may begin to believe that it is their most precious resource and have some appreciation for it. When it's cheaper than bottled water, no wonder they think it's of little value. 

Officers and directors have had ample opportunity to address the pressing issues within the oil and gas industry. Yet, despite the innovative solution proposed by People, Ideas & Objects — one tailored to the industry's unique challenges and fully fleshed out conceptually — they have failed to act. They have failed to meet the most basic expectations of them. Investors have withheld further support for nearly a decade, underscoring the lack of progress. The staggering loss of $4 trillion in natural gas revenues from 2007 to the end of 2023 starkly illustrates the consequences of this inaction. Such a profound failure not only underscores the inefficacy of the current leadership but also disqualifies these officers and directors from continuing their roles. The time for change is now. These leaders have overstayed their welcome, proving that the cost of their continued tenure is too great a burden for the industry to bear. For the sake of the industry's future, it is imperative that we usher in a new era of leadership, one that is willing to embrace innovative solutions and drive meaningful progress.

Friday, March 08, 2024

These Are Not the Leaders We're Looking For, Part V

 People, Ideas & Objects have been in somewhat of the same situation we find ourselves in today. Where producer officers and directors appear as though they need to act in order to mitigate the personal risks they’ve incurred in their willful misconduct over the past many decades. This is best represented by the 2007 to current natural gas price differentials creating a documented $4 trillion revenue loss. Why do they realize they’re at risk? They understand their Officers and Directors Liability Insurance may not cover them for these purposes.

Recently we announced we were selling Profitable Production Rights at a 90% discount. Disregarding the futility of the methods People, Ideas & Objects need to use to raise the necessary funds for these developments. No producer has contacted us regarding participation in any form in the development of the Preliminary Specification. We began our campaign on October 11, 2023. We are not deceived in the actions of the producers. After 33 years their behavior is consistent and can be summarized as “they control the funds of a primary industry.” If People, Ideas & Objects speaks of risk, that is responded to by “no one cares about risk.” Just as “no one cares about profits” was previously stated by them earlier in our journey. We would also point out the fact that since no producers have jumped at this opportunity through the discount, our prices are not at issue with them. 

One day People, Ideas & Objects believe producers will begin to understand the damage and destruction they’ve inflicted upon the greater oil & gas economy by their unreasonable approach. When they do it is the Profitable Production Rights that will linger as a daily reminder of what ridiculous extremes were necessary to put their business right. People, Ideas & Objects are sticking with this method of funding no matter how foolish the officers and directors feel it is. 

Their lack of business understanding extends to the method the Preliminary Specification provides oil & gas producers with the most profitable means of oil & gas operations everywhere and always. Our price maker strategy reflects that oil & gas commodities follow the principles established by economic “price-makers.” Earlier they accused us of formalizing collusion and price fixing, that they would have nothing to do with. This was their reason for ignoring the Preliminary Specification. We were subsequently able to assert that if producers were making independent business decisions based on actual, factual accounting information, that determines the profitability of a property is collusion, then one of us had a deep misunderstanding of business.

I raise this point to highlight the consistent theme throughout their “muddle through” induced inactivity and passivity. Claiming or feigning a lack of knowledge or understanding may help them in court if they were not officers and directors. However they are held to a higher standard. If they are this obtuse and lack the business knowledge they’ve displayed throughout the past many decades, they’ll still be seen as culpable. Playing on their investors and the service industries sympathies while they destroy the industry is a deception that would be worthy of, and consistent, with their prior actions. 

Oil & gas commodities are too valuable to be wasted. Unprofitable production is waste. These are finite resources and we have an obligation to future generations to prove we managed the resource appropriately. To show we produced oil & gas profitably and that a healthy prosperous industry was passed onto future generations. Neither is the case today. People, Ideas & Objects believes that industry needs to adopt the principles of preservation, performance and profitability in order to turn this situation around. The “muddle through” culture has failed in this endeavor. 

A few months ago I mentioned the impact that natural gas storage had on the prices of that commodity. The storage facilities were built out in the early 1990s by the producer firms in one of their Keystone Cop approaches to capital investments. Everyone piled in only to find out no one figured out how to make money and therefore since it didn’t make money, storage was sold off to midstream operators. Now they have no control over the operation and it has become a depressant on the price of natural gas. Although storage enhances the deliverability of gas, it appears that the gas held in storage is not owned by the producer and therefore, just as with LNG, in the hands of others who benefit from its upside. 

When seasonal demand or production is high then the high deliverability acts as an effective buffer to the market to maintain somewhat steady prices. However, are those prices beneficial to producers? Unprofitable production is seen by People, Ideas & Objects as the exact same thing as overproduction. If all the overproduction in the industry is absorbed by storage facilities for the majority of the year, and during peak demand storage's deliverability is high enough to accommodate the extreme demands, are these normal market forces? Storage operators buy low and sell high during the seasons as their method of earning a return. 

Natural gas storage absorbs any overproduction when storage is available. And when storage is unavailable, it continues to depress the price and will accelerate any price decline into a collapse. The way to eliminate the effect of storage in the market is the same method as with LNG. Producers must only produce profitable production. By producing only profitable production through the use of Preliminary Specifications price maker strategy producers will be able to achieve all their corporate objectives. Profitability, maximized asset value and effectively eliminated any excess financial benefit to those who effectively trade off their product. 

However, based on the response times officers and directors have approached these opportunities. We should be seeing the wind down of oil & gas due to the successful development of pocket fusion reactors. Those officers and directors who should have been accountable, hold the responsibility, authority and can direct the resources necessary to deal with the consequences of their “management” haven’t risen to the occasion, and we believe never will. What I’ve found was their behavior was unacceptable and quite beneath those who were responsible for the “can do,” “wildcatting” days. These officers and directors believe they’ve co-opted and emulated that image as they strut down mainstreet with their big, beautiful, well-built balance sheets. Showing who truly is the biggest spender by putting the most “cash in the ground.” 

It's time for producers officers and directors to reveal what their vision for the industry is. What it is they plan to do. How it is they'll do what they plan to do. And why they're doing it. They've had plenty of time to come up with something. Why not share it?

Wednesday, March 06, 2024

These Are Not the Leaders We're Looking For, Part IV

 The question we need to ask ourselves is why do officers and directors believe People, Ideas & Objects glow radioactive? Why is there such a strong adverse reaction to the combination of 'real' and 'profits'? Shouldn't generating 'real' profitability, which would provide more cash, align with their interests? There’s no question it’s the case, why has it not happened? And if they are so offended by People, Ideas & Objects, after these 33 years, why haven’t they changed their systems to generate “real” profitability? 

After asking the many pointed questions I’ve asked in the past few weeks. To summarize, the $4 trillion in lost natural gas revenue since 2007 can be attributed to either the incompetence and indifference of officers and directors or their deliberate, self-serving actions. I suggest officers and directors need to choose one of these alternatives to ensure they don’t become accused of both. 

We have spoken before of several motivations as to why producers have not acted in their own profitable interests. These include the opaque nature of the accounting and systems allows for a freedom and creativity that accountability would otherwise expose. A second reason for the lack of action towards profitability is that the Preliminary Specification represents disintermediation, making the current business models of producer firms redundant, inefficient, and uncompetitive. The third reason that there has been no move to enhance profitability is that under their current business model it can not ever be done. 

Firstly, I have vigorously defended my Intellectual Property throughout this journey, making it accessible exclusively to People, Ideas & Objects, our user community, service providers, and Profitable Production Rights holders. Not to others. Second, today’s producers accounting information produced is inadequate to make the decisions that would be necessary to shut-in production. Accounting information is aggregated and consolidated then merged. To gain any detail or understanding of what its makeup is would be impossible to compile. The two most egregious examples are depletion and overhead.

Depletion

Depletion is a necessary element of determining what level of financial performance a Joint Operating Committees has attained. In a capital intensive industry to exclude the cost of capital from a determination of profitability is inappropriate. Many argue that the well paid-out many decades ago. And that is possibly the case. It doesn’t mean from an SEC or accounting point of view that it ever has or ever will. The need for producers to source investment capital as a means to spend has been over for almost a decade. Competition for capital has to consider a broader, North American perspective and producers need to compete with Apple, WalMart and others as much as they do the producer down the street. 

Accounting is accounting on the basis of the SEC, all accounting for all listed companies will be comparable and to a large extent is. Except when oil & gas Full Cost and the Ceiling Test are involved. These calculations, along with the depletion calculations are not completed at the Joint Operating Committee level, they are aggregated at the corporate level. Reliance on the independent reserve report to provide the detail is where a firm would get the information they need. Note: the reserve reports are factual from a reserves basis however, from an accounting basis their costs are as mythical as Harry Potter in comparison to the SEC requirements. 

The implications of Full Cost and the Ceiling Test are not allocated to Joint Operating Committees. A well may have paid out from the point of view of drilling, completion and equipping. But that’s it. Full Cost allows for any cost that was incurred in the exploration and development of the reserves to be added to the pool associated with those reserves. Therefore, the Joint Operating Committee may have significantly larger capital costs than the individual well’s drilling, completion and equipping. From an SEC accounting basis, any capital costs such as the drilling of uncommercial wells in the pool need to be included in the depletion calculation. 

Currently depletion calculations are conducted on a corporate basis. In today’s Information Technology environment depletion would need to be allocated back to the Joint Operating Committee based on the engineering reports proven reserves and monthly production in order to determine an actual monthly profitability. This work is not undertaken. 

People, Ideas & Objects advocate for a more timely recognition of depletion costs, suggesting a thirty-month period for capital cost recovery to enhance competitiveness and financial health. The SEC’s Ceiling Test defines the limit, not a target. There is ample reason for a producer to adopt a policy of zero property, plant and equipment balances. It will be the most competitive producer that maintains a zero balance of property, plant and equipment. The fact they’ve returned all their investments shows their performance has been historically exceptional. Big, beautiful balance sheets are useless to everyone other than those building consolidated paper empires. The same can be said and is said for the purposes of allocating any changes or adjustments as a result of the Ceiling Test.

There is an associated issue with the management of cash due to these policies. Officers and directors have claimed they were “putting cash in the ground” and they were telling us exactly what it was they were doing. By recognizing capital costs over a thirty month period, this cash would be released back to the producer for reuse for dividends, debt reduction and dividends. Letting cash atrophy in the ground for a decade and more is ludicrous. 

Overhead

The detail necessary for industry to identify the individual Joint Operating Committees overhead costs are significant. As a result industry operates on the basis of overhead allowances charged to the Joint Operating Committee. For every charge to a Joint Operating Committee there are 100% of those charges being recovered in some form from working interest partners. The net effect of these charges and recoveries across the industry is that all overhead allowances equal zero each month. The actual overhead is charged to the corporation and at the end of the year, aggregated and a large percentage, People, Ideas & Objects estimate an average of 85%, are capitalized. 

Ask a producer what’s the “actual” overhead cost to account and administer natural gas vs. oil. No one and I mean no one will be able to tell anyone that until such time as the Preliminary Specification is operational. Eliminating the overhead allowances and replacing them with the actual overhead costs of each process will be done when the Preliminary Specification and our user communities service providers are operational. Each service provider manages one process on behalf of the entire North American producer population. Specializing on their distinct competitive advantages that include: Quality, specialization, division of labor, automation, innovation, application of Artificial intelligence, leadership, Internet of Things, integration, domain expertise, deployment and integration of tacit (their services) and explicit (our software) knowledge, conflict and contradictions, issue identification, creativity, collaboration, research, ideas, design, planning, negotiating and compromising to highlight just a few. Processing the work and billing the individual Joint Operating Committees for their fees for managing their process. If the property is shut-in no data or information is generated for the service provider to conduct their work and as a result no billings are rendered, turning all of the producer's costs variable, based on profitable production. 

This has the added benefit of incurring these costs in a profitable operation each month. Passing these costs on to the consumer of the oil & gas. And therefore the cash incurred to pay the service providers is returned to the Joint Operating Committee within the next month. Maintaining a “cash float” for the overhead costs of the producer firm. Or if the property is shut-in, with the variable nature of overhead under the Preliminary Specification, these costs are not incurred and the property creates a null operation, no profit but also no loss. Today, with the majority of the overhead capitalized, the cash is returned when the depletion costs are recognized annually over the next 15 to 20 years. Demanding that producers find new and willing investors or some form of “new” cash each and every month to pay the overhead. When we think producers knew this from the time of the publication of the Preliminary Specifications publication in August 2012. And no changes have been made to their policies. Maybe alternative 1) above, the possibility of incompetence is the appropriate choice to make.

Moving producer costs to the customer on a timely basis is necessary for profitable and healthy producer firms and the greater oil & gas industrial complex. “Building balance sheets” and “putting cash in the ground” have failed as objectives. As any reasonable person would have anticipated. If the Preliminary Specification disintermediates the officers and directors, or their understanding of business concepts are poor there is ample material here for people to discern the scope of their failure. 

The pressing issue now is the industry's future and how it will navigate the mounting challenges it faces, exacerbated by leadership that has squandered the value entrusted to them by previous generations. A future that sees capital expenditures outstrip any era before it. An unidentified and misunderstood impact of the shale era and its consequences on the industry. A lack of support for producers' capital structures. An industry that has been gutted of any and all value that had been handed from prior generations to the current crop of officers and directors. Which summarily incinerated the capital that was raised in the past three decades. An unmotivated, distrusting and abused service industry that producers have shown they were once played for fools, and they now understand intuitively the real depths of producer depravity. They won’t get fooled again and their capacities and capabilities are inadequate for the continent's future needs. A leadership that has somehow yielded untold personal wealth at the expense of everyone else. And yet are unable to conceive of business concepts such as “real” profitability, “free on board,” “cash float” or “shut-in production.” Among many others. 

Conclusion

The absence of an accurate financial accounting assessment, particularly regarding depletion and actual overhead costs, severely hampers the ability to ascertain the true profitability or loss of any property. Therefore the diversity of outcomes of what is and what isn’t profitable are remarkable. Natural gas and its byproducts are far greater in terms of overhead costs to administer, yet there is no recognition of this in overhead allowances. Blindly shutting in production as the producers are now doing, after 38 years of destruction by not doing so. Is potentially as damaging when done on a turn this valve off and open that one basis. In producer firms today the overhead costs are fixed. Ensuring that the unknown, high overhead properties will be a drain on many other operations if they too are shut-in. 

Decisions are made on the basis of engineering reports and estimates as opposed to any actual financial information. Purely due to the lack of available financial information. Without this information the ability to analyze and understand the business does not exist. Leading to issues such as the $4 trillion natural gas revenue loss since 2007. Accounting today is the means in which to have the bills paid. The intricacies of engineering and geology encapsulate the oil & gas industry's value and complexities, often perceived as too intricate for understanding outside those professions. Thus, beyond balancing the books and undergoing audits, traditional accounting practices are seen as obstacles rather than aids to operational excellence.

The detailed, property-level data offered by People, Ideas & Objects promises to revolutionize the industry's understanding of profitability, pinpointing precisely where money is made and lost. Pursuing 100% of a producer's production profile has been demonstrably inefficient and wasteful. Profitability under the Preliminary Specification will be earned at any level of the producers production profile as all production produced is profitable. Therefore if the commodity prices dictate an 80% production profile. It can be done profitably as the Preliminary Specification, our user community and their service providers turn all of the producers costs variable based on profitable production. I understand these are advanced business concepts. We will therefore need to wait 38 more years before the officers and directors comprehend these points. 

Monday, March 04, 2024

These Are Not the Leaders We're Looking For, Part III

 The technical infrastructure and the disintermediation of the oil & gas industry's complexity highlight fundamental issues. The business competitiveness, which officers and directors have chosen to ignore, will soon become wholly unattainable. The state of the North American industry in terms of its ability to approach the most difficult challenges it has ever faced in its history. The so-called 'efficiently' managed and maintained Rube Goldberg machines within each producer firm have summarily failed under the direction of officers and directors commands. Therefore holding the budget for accounting in general and ERP systems in particular to second hand shoestring diets has achieved what their objective was. Opaque accountability and financial statements, supported by inadequate systems, are treated as features rather than bugs. Are these the source of the $4 trillion in lost revenues People, Ideas & Objects have identified?

Consolidation aims to establish totalitarian control, turning industry participants into 'blind, sleep-walking agents of whoever will feed them.' As Milton Friedman has said it is usually the architects of centralization that are the first to rue the consequences of their actions. How will they be able to deal with the speed and complexity as the business world accelerates further. Are they in control now? Or is this a means in which large portions of the officers and directors can exit the industry and wash their hands of the consequences of their actions? Allowing the skeletons that are springing to life to be buried deeper in a broader “more diverse” organization?

Officers and directors have consistently failed to set a clear agenda, objectives, or direction for the industry. It’s always been “muddle through,” “build balance sheets,” “put cash in the ground,” “clean energy” or when difficulties arise they excuse, blame and create viable scapegoats such as “we need a cold winter,” “it’s the government,” or “the monster under the bed.” Never once employing business principles of good governance or critiquing their performance. Silencing and ignoring those that do. This is the established culture, built over several decades, what officers and directors are relying on to carry them forward for a few decades more? To suggest that we rebuild the industry in the vision of a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas industry is never accepted and shunned. The industry must be rebuilt, not merely to fulfill People, Ideas & Objects vision, but due to the necessity imposed by accumulated damage and neglect. An industry rebuild that must be undertaken by someone as a result of the damage and destruction that has now been realized. 

On Wednesday, February 28, 2024, I questioned whether the $4 trillion in unrealized value was genuinely surprising to officers and directors. Asking if it was in some way deliberate? Or is this purely on the basis that they did not know? I would suggest it was one of those two and the officers and directors are free to pick whichever one they like. Indication of a deteriorating natural gas price structure from 2007 to 2023. Where 6 to 1 fell to over 51 to 1 at one point did not trigger anything other than People, Ideas & Objects continuing concern, our banishment from the industry and $4 trillion in losses.

If I wanted to, I could come up with other reasons for this disaster heading toward a catastrophe. The crucial point is that, regardless of the reasons, this disaster will persist as long as the current officers, directors, and culture remain unchanged. The difficulty is magnified if it is left to continue with its consolidation. As they will become impervious to outside influences. As they may very well be today. 

I have documented throughout the 18 years of this blog, and this adventure I began in 1991. In response to the 1986 oil price collapse. I have not received any support from industry as it conflicts with the good financial health of the officers and directors. Disintermediation is the theme in all industries. Who is coming up behind me with an idea that will replace the status quo, and will or can avoid the Preliminary Specifications Intellectual Property? What issue in industry will anyone approach that will receive the good faith blessing of the officers and directors? Or will the individual look at the situation, see that it may take 33 years to resolve, and even think there is an issue?

And there is a larger issue than this. The service industry is wholly enamored with the producer firms. Having been betrayed when producers' sources of capital dried up. Suppliers were able to keep the producers active in the field for a period of time. What wasn’t known was the producers had no intention of paying for at least 18 months. With covid making the service industry even more difficult they were faced with selling horsepower and cutting up equipment to survive. All while the producers whistled on by. 

Investors were disenchanted with producers' performance and began to suspend their additional support of producers as early as 2015. Nothing has been done by officers and directors to address these most critical issues of what should have focused the mind of each and every one of them. 

This is an ugly picture and I’m sure it’s as fresh as a $4 trillion revenue loss to many of the officers and directors. It is now decision time for those in power, and I argue that the coming months are critical for making these necessary changes. Otherwise, I don’t see it happening.

Friday, March 01, 2024

These Are Not the Leaders We're Looking For, Part II

It seemed that the goodwill extended to producer officers and directors during the 2008 financial crisis had been fully extended. Yet, surprisingly, they received numerous additional opportunities to rectify their underlying issues. The industry's culture, heavily influenced by a 'muddle through' approach, has rendered follow-through impossible, effectively stifling initiative. Regression to the norm occurs rapidly and expectedly. The reliable and permanent disconnect between press releases and the implementation of action underscores a profound failure to act. 

It should take more courage for an officer or director to stand in front of their shareholders and ask for their nomination to be approved for 2024. Where is their acceptance of responsibility? They were duly authorized, accountable, responsible and had the resources to resolve these issues? What is the role of an officer and director if it is not to foresee the difficulties and avoid risks? Clearly the risks and difficulties were pointed out to them for decades. Solutions have been available for more than a decade. And acceptance that shutting - in production was necessary occurred on February 21, 2024. 

It wasn’t that recent natural gas prices of $1.51 were lower than Canadian regulated natural gas prices of $3.75 in 1985. Adjusted for inflation those would be $9.25 today. Or that the price on a traditional 6 to 1 basis would be $12.76. Instead they accepted 52 to 1, a continuation of the deterioration in the factor that began in 2007. Yet from 2007 to 2024 this issue did not warrant a press release! It was the realization that the quantification of $4 trillion revenue loss they had wasted, which has now put their personal fortunes in jeopardy through the potential loss of their Officers and Directors Insurance. That was their motivation in February 2024, and even that only qualified for a press release. Someone should ask them how they intend to resolve their dilemma?

In terms of answering the question, who should we trust? How could we do worse than what we have today? If new leadership was brought in to take the industry forward, would that be better? While the decision on leadership replacement exceeds my authority, the necessity for change is clear. 

However in terms of an organizational structure and culture in which to rebuild the industry I don’t think there is a better choice than People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and their service provider organizations. We have been focused on the critical issues that the industry was facing. That they manifested into such dire consequences was unnecessary and is the result of the officers and directors inaction. Our purpose and objectives focus on cultivating a new culture based on preservation, performance and profitability—a foundation we believe is essential for trustworthy leadership.

And that is not all. The future through our overall organizational focus on dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas producers. Our user community vision, and by extension our permanent ERP software development capability. Ensures that industry doesn’t fall into any organizationally constrained difficulty again. Our Preliminary Specification is ready and is designed to support industry leadership for their administrative and accounting needs for the next 25 years. 

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

These Are Not the Leaders We're Looking For, Part I

 People, Ideas & Objects highlight the urgent need for officers and directors to make decisive actions regarding their roles in their oil & gas producer firms. This week, we announced the second phase of our campaign, focusing primarily on the removal of these officers and directors. Their actions have demonstrated a lack of qualification and capability to meet their positional demands, necessitating conduct we deem appropriate. 

Officers and directors must implement mechanisms that establish the industry on a foundation of preservation, performance, and profitability. This means prioritizing 'real' profitable production, strictly interpreted, across all operations. Which involves funding the development and implementation of the People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification through our Profitable Production Rights. Subsequently, they should resign their positions. That was easy to write, we’ll see how effective it is in terms of follow through.

The justification for doing so is the compelling case that officers and directors (in)actions have incurred an intentional tort in the form of willful misconduct. If they were to resolve the issue by putting in place the means to resolve the issues, then the classification of an unintentional tort may apply. The difference between these two definitions is that one is covered by their officers and directors liability insurance and the other may not. 

Continuation of their role in the corporation is questionable when they were unable to comprehend the significance of their actions. Or maybe the significance of their actions is the question. To buy gas from the Gulf of Mexico LNG providers and in turn sell it in the Japanese or Netherlands markets can be done, as I understand, with activity in the futures markets. Hedging put and call options on the producer's production was all the rage a few years ago. Therefore the knowledge and ability were within their domain. It's unclear why the industry failed to capitalize on the proceeds from these LNG shipments. Misunderstanding “free on board” is a bit of a stretch for anyone to accept that the entire industry didn’t understand this most basic business concept. Or is the case of a producer selling their production into the Gulf of Mexico while global natural gas prices soar. And then leaving it to “others” to transport and market the gas into foreign markets would be easier and no less suspicious of them.

Officers and directors have a duty of care; their primary responsibility is their fiduciary duty to the corporation's interests. Mistakes can happen and they are covered by insurance for such instances. However, as I’ve provided a solution to the issues that are preeminent in the market today. Whose issues generated $4 trillion in lost revenue during the same period. Investors of these corporations were dissatisfied with the performance of the producers. Nothing was done by officers and directors. This leaves the industry ill prepared, with few resources, no capital structures and one option in the form of the Preliminary Specification. Continued misconduct and inaction by officers and directors risk escalating the situation from a disaster to a catastrophe. 

How are those that are responsible able to account for a $4 trillion revenue loss under these conditions? How is it that a culture of “muddle through” was ever acceptable to them? Do we allow this to continue?

These are the disqualifying facts of the history of the oil & gas producers in the 21st century. Seeking to maintain their positions has been their primary occupation by issuing successive press releases. None of what had been stated by them at any time has turned out to be valid and they’ve refused to accept the input of others. They have flipped and flopped in and out of oil & gas, declared the shale frontier uncommercial and reported specious profitability through the simple act of spending money. 

What qualifies as profitable in oil & gas in nothing more than the ability to spend money. When little of the capital, in a capital intensive industry, is passed to the consumers. Investors have to support the spending. Deceived by specious financial statements alleging profitability, which are marginally less than the gross profit. Throughout the period of time in which I criticized the industries actions. (December 2005 to February 2024.) Not one single change in any accounting practice, attitude or operation has occurred except for on February 21, 2024. That was the day that press releases were issued stating that natural gas production would be curtailed. 

The current organizational structure and industry culture lack any redeeming qualities, necessitating a comprehensive rebuild. People, Ideas & Objects suggest it needs to be rebuilt under the vision of the Preliminary Specification. It is not on the basis that we would need to tear it down to do so. The state of affairs in oil & gas is more or less destitute in my opinion. Given this need for rebuilding, the question arises: who can be trusted to undertake it? 

Monday, February 26, 2024

Announcing Phase II of Our Campaign

 People, Ideas & Objects' Declaration of Victory last Wednesday was timely and appropriate. However, I am fully aware of the potential challenges that may now begin in earnest. Experience has taught us that it is sometimes prudent to view oil and gas officers and directors primarily as advocates of public relations. Issuing press releases to a receptive media one day does not resolve the actual, chronic issue of systemic overproduction. As we have observed, it took 38 years for them to acknowledge that overproduction was a problem; it might take equally long for them to realize the necessity of implementing a solution. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and their service providers configured as our Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas would be our recommendation to producers.

Major Announcement: Sale of 100,000 Profitable Production Rights

Today, we are excited to announce the sale of 100,000 Profitable Production Rights. This initiative is not a market offering and is exempt from regulatory scrutiny. Instead, it represents the licensing of exclusive access rights to our Cloud Administration & Accounting for the Oil & Gas sector, a licensed product anchored in the Intellectual Property of People, Ideas & Objects.

With the established pricing model, we anticipate these Profitable Production Rights will generate $100 million once we've established the necessary technical, legal and organizational frameworks. To facilitate the creation of this infrastructure, we are offering these rights at a 90% discount, aiming to raise $10 million in initial revenue. This strategic pricing is designed to fund the development of the requisite Profitable Production Rights technical, legal, and organizational infrastructure. Interested parties are encouraged to contact People, Ideas & Objects directly.

Campaign Success and Future Direction

The initial phase of our campaign, spanning from October 11, 2023, to February 16, 2024, achieved notable success across two primary objectives. First, producers have acknowledged the necessity of focusing exclusively on profitable production, a principle we've long advocated for, as highlighted in recent discussions. This shift comes in the wake of recognizing a staggering $4 trillion in wasted resources from 764 TCF of gas. Secondly, we are initiating the second phase of our campaign today, which will extend through the end of May 2024. This phase will intensify focus on the significant financial and operational missteps by industry officers and directors, particularly regarding the willful misconduct in resource destruction and the neglect of proven strategies.

Historical Context and Industry Dynamics

  • In 2015, investor confidence waned, with many withdrawing further funding from oil & gas producers due to unsatisfactory performance and historical disappointments.
  • People, Ideas & Objects published the Preliminary Specification in August 2012, offering solutions to the industry's prevailing challenges, which remain relevant today.
  • On July 4, 2019, we released “Profitable, North American Energy Independence -- Through the Commercialization of Shale,” further advocating for the Preliminary Specification, which was unfortunately disregarded by industry leadership.
  • The necessity to shut-in production became undeniable in April 2020 when oil prices plummeted to negative $37.64, refuting claims that such measures would lead to substantial formation damage.
  • In 2022, a shift in narrative emerged as officers and directors declared shale unviable for commercial success, pivoting towards clean energy initiatives with purported shareholder support.
  • By 2023, shale re-emerged as a strategic focus, albeit with a new consolidation theme, signaling a recalibration of industry priorities.

This sequence of events underscores a pattern of mismanagement and strategic misdirection by industry leaders. Culminating in significant financial losses and a questioning of their suitability for a leadership role. This second phase of our campaign aims to highlight these issues, advocating for a reevaluation of leadership strategies and a return to proven, profitable practices. 

Taking action is essential. The issuance of press releases concerning production cuts significantly influenced the price of natural gas on the day of announcement. However, this effect diminished by Thursday and Friday. The reputation of officers and directors for making statements without subsequent action is well-documented and arguably anticipated. It underscores the urgent need for tangible action, specifically through the implementation of the Preliminary Specification. Alternatively, a consistent, daily series of press releases could serve to sustain the illusion of ongoing activity.

Thursday, February 22, 2024

Reviewed & Revised Profitable Production Rights, Part III

 New Growth Theory

Among the seven Organizational Constructs outlined in the Preliminary Specification, New Growth Theory plays a pivotal role. It aims to lower the overhead costs linked to oil and gas exploration and production by facilitating the sharing of administration and accounting services. This initiative is executed through People, Ideas & Objects, alongside our user community and service providers, via Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas. The development of this software and service is financed through the proceeds from the Profitable Production Rights.

Professor Paul Romer's theory of non-rival goods extends and enhances the value derived from Adam Smith's principles of specialization and division of labor. People, Ideas & Objects is committed to abolishing the outdated and inefficient practice of each producer independently developing their administrative and accounting capabilities. Instead, we advocate for the adoption of Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas, which provides a shared, variable-cost, industry-wide administrative and accounting infrastructure. Persisting in duplicative administrative and accounting efforts across producers is illogical in the 21st century, especially within an industry burdened by significant overhead costs like oil and gas.

Because the economics of ideas are so different from the economics of markets. We’re going to have to develop a richer understanding of non-market institutions, science like institutions, this is going to be a new endeavor for economics.

Budget

Our campaign in late 2023 and early 2024 to highlight the damage and destruction in the natural gas marketplace achieved remarkable success. We have now established as an industry fact that over 17 years, $4 trillion in natural gas revenues went unrealized due to the willful misconduct of certain officers and directors. This figure surpasses our initial value proposition estimates, which supported the potential for $5.7 trillion in incremental profits over a 25-year period for the oil and gas sectors combined. We extend our gratitude to these officers and directors for their unwitting contribution to our campaign.

On February 21, 2024, the Wall Street Journal reported that producers:

1023 ET – Short-covering pushes U.S. natural gas futures sharply higher after 

Chesapeake Energy

says it plans to cut production this year in response to current market conditions. The reaction looks overdone, but “we are keeping a close eye on matching or similar production-reduction comments from the other majors,” says Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy. “If those come in the next week or so we could see summer push towards $3 and winter make a drive for $4.” The front month March contract is up 11% at $1.753/mmBtu, with double-digit gains also for subsequent months. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Few industry participants would dispute that the direct costs associated with People, Ideas & Objects would be in the vicinity of $12.79 billion USD. The status quo finds it particularly challenging to acknowledge the costs for Intellectual Property royalties, earnings, and the valuation of Flexible Profitable Production Rights as outlined in the Preliminary Specification. The expenses tied to this initiative are minor compared to the now-validated, undervalued potential the Preliminary Specification is poised to unlock. Our Request for Proposal (RFP) section delves into the rationale behind the budget for People, Ideas & Objects, offering a detailed comparison between the prospective value the Preliminary Specification promises and the existing plans enacted by the officers and directors.

Promotion of Profitable Production Rights

People, Ideas & Objects has reintroduced Profitable Production Rights to fund the development of the Preliminary Specification and establish our user community. On February 26, 2024, we will announce a development aimed at initiating this process. The oil and gas industry faces a critical juncture; it has lost essential capacities and capabilities, rendering it unable to maintain its production profile. This situation has been aggravated by the attrition of long lead times necessary for drilling and completing wells, a process traditionally spanning ten years but now severely atrophied.

Particularly troubling is the industry's reliance on shale, which, due to its high cost and steep decline curve, has left us exceedingly vulnerable to an unprecedented industry-wide decline. The short-term inability to address this production shortfall signals a potential, catastrophic failure, compounded by our documented $4 trillion revenue shortfall created by existing officers and directors through complacency and a lack of proactive leadership.

Addressing this crisis requires an all-hands-on-deck approach, transcending the complacency that has circumvented industry motivation for action. The severe problem of declining production capabilities, exacerbated by industries overexposure to shale, demands immediate attention. Those in positions of authority and responsibility, who have historically preferred to "muddle through" using capital-intensive industry cash flows to offset their hefty compensation, must now face the urgency of the situation. The business discussion cannot end with executive compensation while ignoring these looming catastrophes. A concerted effort involving revised industry leaders, policymakers, and innovators is essential to forge a sustainable path forward for the oil and gas industry.

Conclusion

Status quo producers have lost sight of their purpose. They have failed, will not succeed, and have proven culturally incapable of earning "real" profitability. They have no desire to change or succeed. As time passes, the difficulties in the industry will become more apparent. The choice of alternative organizational opportunities for the greater oil & gas economy is limited to one choice offered by Oracle, People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and their service provider organizations in the form of our Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas application. The time to consider these issues has passed. As part of the Intellectual Property available to develop any alternatives, it will be necessary to consider what solutions have already been developed and avoid what exists in our Preliminary Specification. Then undertake the difficult ten year process of researching a solution to achieve the industry needs.

In light of the trillions of dollars of damage and destruction caused by producer officers and directors throughout the greater oil & gas economy. People, Ideas & Objects provide extensive value propositions, developed new business models that bring new value as a result of disintermediation. The cultural methods we implement in the Preliminary Specification to achieve these advantages are described in our seven Organizational Constructs. We are building the future oil & gas industry on these cultural foundations.

As a result of our budget, the producers' officers and directors have maintained their distance from this project. Because of the scope and scale of these issues and this project, these costs must be recognized. Our next phase of development will not be built on one individual's success. As a result, it will be based on a comprehensive sense of urgency necessary to address these issues in the industry. In addition, the revenue potential and characteristics of Profitable Production Rights should reflect a negotiated share of the BOE's value proposition. And determined by the individual rights owner. We will be offering standard documents to aid their process.

The purchase price of these rights is $1,000 U.S. per North American BOE. In addition, the potential revenues and characteristics of that right reflect a negotiable share of the Profitable Production Rights with those who own the oil & gas production. The proceeds are used to build the Preliminary Specification. Fulfilling the need for People, Ideas & Objects revenues from oil & gas production, albeit indirectly in this case. By operating Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas software and services, the Profitable Production Right will reflect the intrinsic value of oil & gas production's ability to organize profitably. It is a perpetual right and exists beyond today's oil & gas producers. Although our costs are large they pale in comparison to the significance of the damage done by these officers and directors. This damage is accelerating, has not been identified or approached and continues. Therefore anyone and everyone can share in the effort, the success and the reward of resolving this industry catastrophe to prevent what could become a societal catastrophe.

The status quo in the oil and gas industry is no longer sustainable. Producers have lost sight of their purpose, trapped in a cycle of unprofitability and culturally resistant to change. As challenges mount, the need for alternative organizational strategies becomes undeniable. People, Ideas & Objects, in partnership with Oracle and our vibrant user community, introduces a revolutionary solution: Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas. This product represents the only viable alternative to reinvigorate the industry with real profitability and sustainable practices.

Our approach, delineated in the Preliminary Specification through seven Organizational Constructs, offers a blueprint for disintermediation and cultural transformation. These constructs provide a foundation for developing new business models that promise significant value by addressing the billions in damages caused by current leadership practices.

Recognizing the project's scope and the pressing need for industry-wide collaboration, we propose Profitable Production Rights. Priced at $1,000 U.S. per North American BOE, these rights not only fund the development of our solutions but also allow stakeholders to directly participate in and benefit from the industry's transformation. This model represents a perpetual investment in the future of oil and gas, transcending today's challenges.

As we stand at the precipice of what could become a societal catastrophe, it is imperative that we all contribute to a solution. The Profitable Production Rights offer a pathway to rebuild the industry on principles of profitability, sustainability, and collective effort. Our invitation extends to everyone to join this vital endeavor, shaping an industry capable of meeting the demands of the future while rectifying the mistakes of the past.

The Battle

For over four decades, North America's oil and gas industry has seen billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of gas extracted and reported on balance sheets, with unclear benefits to society at large. While the purpose behind these actions may not be fully understood, the necessity for transparency and a reevaluation of strategies is undeniable. Alarmingly, the prosperity generated has largely been confined to the industry's officers and directors, posing a significant risk to societal well-being. People, Ideas & Objects recently documented over $4 trillion in revenue losses were realized in the July 2007 to current period. And did so unnecessarily. With disgruntled shareholders actions since 2015 designed to focus on these issues. And a solution in the form of the Preliminary Specification since August 2012. Willful misconduct are the personal issues in which individual officers and directors need to address.

As these leaders transitioned towards clean energy, taking the industry's revenues with them, questions arose about the legality of this shift. It highlights an urgent need for a system that genuinely aligns with oil & gas profitable oil & gas practices. Enter Profitable Production Rights: a concept designed to steer the industry towards a culture of preservation, performance, and profitability, prioritizing the most profitable means of oil & gas operations.

The Preliminary Specifications seven Organizational Constructs lay the groundwork for this transformation, offering a comprehensive and intuitive cultural framework. This environment invites all concerned stakeholders to engage, innovate, and thrive, marking a pivotal step towards creating a dynamic, innovative, accountable, profitable and prosperous oil and gas sector.