One of the items that we’ll be discussing at length in this series is the analysis that I completed regarding the situation in the industry. Prior to Christmas it seemed I was the only one concerned about the lack of profitability in oil and gas. Was I wrong about my assumption supporting the need for the Preliminary Specification. Had I misunderstood the basis of how the industry operated, and not understood the role of cash flow in the industry? Therefore I undertook this comprehensive assessment in order to determine, in as objective manner as I possibly could, what the situation was in the industry. I comprehensively reviewed 21 companies. Big ones, little ones, American ones, Canadian ones, startups, integrated’s and all style of independents. There are a number of similarities in all of these producers current situations. We’ll discuss my findings and the reasons why the Preliminary Specification is necessary in the marketplace and to what degree.
We have sought to provide the oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. The Preliminary Specification does this. The question that needs to be asked is why in the world would any oil or gas ever be produced unprofitably from this point forward? The commodities are too precious and valuable to be throwing them away in the manner that they have been these past four decades. If we are to burn these commodities let's at least make sure that they’re produced profitably. I think we have an obligation to our future to be at least that responsible.
I watched a couple of movies while I was off. Moneyball with Brad Pitt, and The Big Short with Brad Pitt. I found these two movies had some interesting commentary about how change was implemented in other industries. And we can learn much from them. In Moneyball the owner of the Red Sox said “that the vested interests would go bat shit crazy fighting you.” I can attest to that. And in “The Big Short” you can map out fairly clearly where we are in the change process in oil and gas, by the events that took place during the 2008 financial crisis. I’ll give you a hint where I think we are. The point where the CDO’s were known by everyone in the banking industry to be worthless, but nothing happened. Other than the fact the banks began unloading their positions on their John Q. Public customers. The pertinent quote from Christian Bale's character was "that we may be in a completely fraudulent system." Only after the banks were able to get out of most of their positions did the system take the hit that it did.
The analysis that I did over the holidays determined that the valuations of the producers were severely extended. Almost on a wholesale basis you could say that oil and gas producer firms are trading at three to four times their current cash flow multiples. I’ll restate that for clarity, three to four times what they are traditionally valued at. If you read what has been said since the implementation of the OPEC agreement we are on the verge of a new energy investment nirvana. All of the recommendations on these oil and gas stocks from the analysts in the banks and brokerages have been excessively bullish. Reading many of them, I was unable to match what was being said by the analyst and what the company had reported in their financial statements. It would seem to me that the investment houses have been putting one over on John Q. Public as a belated 2016 Christmas gift.
The past four decades has been a time in which the oil and gas industry has not suffered from a lack of investors and bankers. To the contrary, the industry has been supported handsomely by a willing and cooperative investment community. Therefore it is reasonable to conclude that more investment into the industry at this time is not going to be the solution that solves the issues that the industry suffers from today. If the producers and the analysts at the banks and brokerage houses are putting one over on John Q. Public, putting lipstick on a pig as it were, then the crisis that precipitates the implementation of the Preliminary Specification is within sight.
OPEC was never the issue. Overproduction and oversupply from North American shale producers in both oil and gas are the issue. Producers, without the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model to allocate production profitably, can't control themselves from chronic, systemic overproduction. With the new OPEC agreement, their members have shifted the focus onto the North American producers behavior. If these North American producers continue to overproduce and lose money at tragic velocities then the world will know who the real culprits are. I wonder how our friends the producers stock prices will do then?
The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.