The Digital Revolution Will Not Wait for Oil & Gas
Officers and directors of North American producer firms may soon find the pressure to act becoming impossible to ignore. For years, I have argued that the industry’s financial performance has been inadequate. Now a larger question is emerging: can the industry finance and deliver the energy the continent will need?
The expectations are growing. So is the distance between those expectations and an industry culture that remains committed to muddling through.
Some of the most candid criticism is coming from Canada, where distance to market, transportation costs and heavy-oil quality differentials can compound producers’ financial challenges. These circumstances demand a stronger commercial response. Instead, the familiar explanation persists: government prevents the industry from accomplishing what it otherwise would.
The government has plenty to answer for. So do officers and directors.
“We’re Not Running Fast Enough”
In a recent interview, Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel warned that Canada must move faster to compete for investment. His assessment was blunt: “we better run faster, and we’re not running fast enough.” He pointed to the relative attractiveness of American investment opportunities and the need for Canadian policies that support development. Enbridge interview.
His criticism is directed principally at the government. I hear a message for producers as well.
The United States has its own regulatory conflicts, infrastructure constraints and political obstacles. Those difficulties have hardly disappeared. Yet Ebel’s comparison exposes the commercial question Canada keeps avoiding: what must change here to make investment worthwhile?
People, Ideas & Objects has consistently argued that North American oil & gas needs to establish profitability throughout its production profile. The capacity to produce another barrel or another unit of natural gas tells us very little about whether producing it creates value, recovers the capital consumed and finances the industry’s future.
That distinction becomes decisive when the discussion turns to the Digital Revolution.
Governments, utilities and think tanks are beginning to describe the energy system they believe the future requires. Producers should be leading the commercial response. Too often, they appear to be waiting for someone else to remove every obstacle before they reconsider how their own businesses operate.
Enbridge has the scale and geographic reach to pursue opportunities elsewhere. Canadian producers should consider what happens when the capital and infrastructure they need follow those opportunities.
If the message still fails to register, no one should be surprised. At times, the Canadian industry appears almost comatose.
Before Declaring a Market Failure
The argument has become more pointed in Alberta, where a leaked cabinet report reportedly described TC Energy’s plans for its NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. system as “misaligned” with anticipated demand. It also alleged a “market failure” that left important growth regions unable to access natural gas. The concerns included potential demand from AI data centres, oil sands projects and other industrial development. CBC report
I find the assignment of responsibility incomplete.
A regulated pipeline business needs a commercial foundation for expansion. Producers and customers must translate their expectations into credible requirements and commitments. The pipeline operator must develop projects, secure approvals and arrange financing. Someone ultimately has to support the cost of the capacity being requested.
A government forecast of future demand does not, by itself, accomplish any of that.
Nor would it be accurate to suggest the NGTL system has stood still. TC Energy reports approximately $15 billion of investment in the system over the past decade and continues to advance expansion projects. The dispute concerns whether the location, timing and scale of planned capacity will meet emerging needs. TC Energy’s NGTL system overview
That is a more useful starting point. Which projects need service? When do they need it? What commitments have been offered? Where does the process break down, and who is responsible for resolving it?
Those questions place producers, industrial customers, pipeline operators and governments within the same commercial discussion. Simply identifying the pipeline company as the failure risks allowing everyone else to escape scrutiny.
If Alberta expects an extraordinary expansion of energy demand, it needs an equally serious account of how that demand becomes financeable infrastructure and profitable production.
Who Is Paying?
On September 2, I responded on X to the Fraser Institute’s Strategies to Secure Canadian Energy Sovereignty. The paper advocates export diversification, additional infrastructure and changes to the policies affecting energy investment. Its authors emphasize creating conditions that attract capital. The authors’ summary
My frustration concerns the industry’s habit of treating another government strategy as the answer to its own commercial failures.
Are we back to five-year economic plans? The Soviet echoes become difficult to ignore whenever executives spend decades explaining why the government prevents them from acting, then expect the government to organize their future.
Investors’ demands for profitability and accountability should never have been difficult to understand. In my view, their retreat beginning in 2015 delivered a verdict that the industry has still failed to absorb.
Losing investor confidence is like having your engine seize on the way to your vacation. You can keep gripping the steering wheel, but you are going nowhere. Eleven years later, too many officers and directors still appear to be sitting behind that wheel, pretending to hurtle down the highway.
Now the government is supposed to draw up a strategy and make everything happen?
With whose capital? Whose resources? Supported by what underlying profitability?
Private capital can finance substantial development when investors can see credible returns. That is precisely why the industry’s ability to earn those returns matters. If producers cannot explain how their ambitions will generate value, transferring the discussion to Ottawa does nothing to resolve the underlying failure.
Call this self-serving gibberish if you like. Before celebrating another strategy, answer the question industry and government keep stepping around:
Who is paying for all this, and what profitable activity will sustain the investment?
That was the substance of my September 2 post. The question remains.
Energy and the Digital Revolution
Two developments offer a more constructive view of what could come next.
The first is Professor Philip Zelikow’s Hoover Institution presentation, American Energy: The Key to Success in the Digital Revolution. In less than six minutes, he connects the foundations of American industrial success with the requirements of the emerging digital economy. Watch the presentation
His historical argument brings together resource abundance, engineering talent, workforce education and an enabling political environment. Those capabilities allowed the United States to turn its natural endowment into industrial strength.
He then identifies three essential dimensions of the Digital Revolution: hardware, software and energy.
That third dimension should command the attention of everyone in oil & gas. Chips and software require a physical system capable of supplying the energy that makes them useful. Resource abundance creates an opportunity to build that system. Realizing the opportunity requires investment, infrastructure, technical capability and execution.
I recommend watching the presentation and following the Hoover Institution’s George P. Shultz Energy Policy Working Group.
My conclusion is straightforward. Energy will help determine which economies can realize the benefits of the Digital Revolution. Oil & gas producers have an opportunity to make a substantial contribution. They also have an obligation to demonstrate that they can sustain it commercially.
When governments and think tanks are articulating the opportunity, while governments and pipeline companies argue over the capacity to serve it, producer leadership should be unmistakable.
Where is it?
Brick by Brick and Stick by Stick
Consider Alberta and California as two different expressions of economic opportunity. Alberta possesses an extraordinary energy resource base. California has built a concentration of information technology businesses and expertise closely associated with the development of Artificial Intelligence.
Both illustrate the importance of turning resources, knowledge and investment into productive activity.
For Alberta, the relevant question is how effectively its resource wealth becomes enduring economic value. Calling energy an economic engine is easy. Keeping that engine productive, profitable and capable of financing its next stage of development requires considerably more.
I have argued for rebuilding this industry “brick by brick and stick by stick.” The emerging demands make that proposition increasingly difficult to dismiss.
The “muddle through” culture consumes attention, capital and time merely maintaining itself. Attempting to build the capabilities required for the Digital Revolution within that culture could absorb the very resources needed to move forward.
People, Ideas & Objects Synallagi, our user community and their service providers offer the basis for a different approach: reserves preservation, performance and profitability.
That means developing the information and operating capabilities through which producers can understand the economics of their properties, recover their capital and make independent decisions about when production creates value. It means treating profitability as the commercial foundation of reliable supply.
An industry expected to support a major expansion of economic activity must be capable of financing its own continuing contribution.
The Value Still in the Ground
The second constructive development concerns investment.
On April 7, 2025, I published Oil & Gas Arbitrage: The Market Finds a Way. The argument examined the opportunity to acquire oil & gas assets during periods of weak commodity prices and preserve exposure to their longer-term value. Read the paper
There are two related sources of potential gain.
First, higher realized prices can increase the expected future net cash flows from an existing reserve base. Because costs do not necessarily rise in proportion to revenue, the effect on value can be substantial. Its magnitude depends on the asset’s costs, production profile, development requirements, fiscal terms and the duration of the price improvement. The upside can be substantial: under the right cost and valuation assumptions, even a 10% increase in commodity prices could double an investment’s value.
Second, a stronger price outlook can make additional volumes economic to recover. Under the applicable technical and commercial criteria, that can support an increase in estimated reserves.
The geology has not changed. The economic boundary of what can be developed has.
Natural gas that cannot justify development at one price may become commercially attractive at a substantially higher price. The investor can therefore benefit from both improved economics on existing reserves and the potential development of additional resources.
Those additional volumes still require capital and execution. Their value depends on the producer’s ability to develop and operate them profitably. Reserves estimates, economic valuations and the accounting carrying value of an asset are also distinct measures.
This is why preserving the resource and improving the business that manages it belong in the same investment argument.
On September 14, Carlyle-backed Avenrock Energy announced an agreement to acquire Parallax Energy, establishing a new Western Canadian light-oil platform focused on Alberta’s East Shale Duvernay. The transaction remains subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. Carlyle’s announcement identifies long-duration resources and improving market access among the region’s attractions. Carlyle announcement
I see that investment as consistent with the broader opportunity described in my paper. Carlyle’s own rationale stands on its announcement.
Acquiring the assets establishes the opportunity. Operating them profitably determines how much of that opportunity becomes lasting value.
The Digital Revolution is raising the stakes. The resource exists. Capital is making choices. Officers and directors need to decide whether they will continue defending the culture that brought us here or begin building the capabilities the future requires.
