Friday, April 19, 2019

Good Friday


Thursday, April 18, 2019

Our Oil and Gas Position Paper, Part VII

Our solution, The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers

People, Ideas & Objects claim is that the oil and gas industry in North America has not been profitable for over four decades. Serious accounting issues have overlooked the lack of real profitability and the slow and steady erosion of any and all value out of the industry. This has manifest itself into a deluded population of oil and gas producers that believe they’ve been successful, however their investors have been withholding support for the past number of years. The development of shale based reservoirs has accelerated the trajectory of their decline and we see now that the cashless producers have no understanding or appreciation of the issues, People, Ideas & Objects proposed solution, or for the commercialization of shale. The question that remains unanswered in many people’s minds is will shale ever become economic? A very dire situation that we’ve called for the full force of creative destruction to be used against the existing producers in the industry. We believe in addition to being an accounting issue, it has now manifest itself into chronic organizational and cultural issues.

The Preliminary Specification is ERP software that identifies and supports a reorganization of the producer firm and industries resources. Using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer we are able to shift the compliance and governance frameworks of the bureaucracy into alignment with the legal, financial, operational decision making, cultural, communication, innovation and strategic frameworks of the Joint Operating Committee. This alignment brings about the speed, innovativeness and accountability that we seek in our producer firms. Once People, Ideas & Objects determined that the Joint Operating Committee was the necessary organizational construct for the future oil and gas producer and industry. I set about to conduct the research into what and how the producer and industry would operate when we made these changes. This was difficult work that took over a decade to complete and we were able to publish the Preliminary Specification as a workable model for oil and gas in December 2013. It currently consists of 12 modules and approximately 200,000 words that define what is necessary to resolve the issues and realize the opportunities that are present in the industry today, and the frameworks necessary to deal with those that arise in the future.

The key structural change that is made in the Preliminary Specification is the establishment of our user community and their associated service providers. These are a reallocation of the administrative and accounting resources that are currently employed within the oil and gas producers. By determining that accounting and administration are not key competitive advantages of the producer we can offload these tasks to service providers outside of the producer organization. That provides many key opportunities that enable the Preliminary Specification to operate in ways that the industry is incapable of doing today. What we’ll be doing in this process is converting all of the producers costs to variable costs based on production. If a property doesn’t produce a profit due to its low deliverability, high cost or other reasons it can be shut-in and its prior losses will no longer dilute the profitable operations from other properties. It will incur a null operation, no profit but also no loss. This property can then be moved to the producers inventory of properties that require the producers earth science and engineering innovations to return it to profitable operations. These shut-in reserves can therefore be saved for a time in which they can be produced profitably. These reserves will not have to carry and recover the additional losses as costs that would otherwise have been incurred if it continued to produce unprofitably. And the commodity markets will find the marginal cost based on only profitable oil and gas operations being produced in the industry. What we have essentially done is moved the producers fixed cost accounting and administrative capabilities to be the variable cost accounting and administrative capabilities of the industry, variable based on production.

Producers consider this collusion as a reason not to act and are unwilling to put the effort into making this industry a viable business. In fact what this is called is the decentralized production model which in the Preliminary Specification replaces what’s in use today and is commonly known as the high throughput production model. It’s not collusion and every other industry manages their inventories in similar fashion to ensure that they do not erode their pricing power. If making independent business decisions based on actual factual accounting of the determination of profitability is collusion, then we are in a strange new world indeed. Oil and gas commodities are subject to the principles of price makers. Producers believe they are price takers and therefore any action they take to increase or decrease production has no effect on commodity prices. One look at the recent history of the industry and we can see that OPEC has successfully removed production on more than one occasion and successfully rehabilitated the oil price. It would seem that producers believe that oil and gas commodities are price takers to ensure there is no need for them to act.

People, Ideas & Objects source of our software quality is our user community. Software that is not based on user input is useless in our opinion. Our user community will consist of approximately 3,000 individuals who will contribute their understanding to the model of the Preliminary Specification. That way we'll know that we’re providing the highest possible quality of software to the oil and gas industry. Each of our user community members will also be the principal involved in one of approximately 3,000 fully independent service provider organizations. There they’ll be provided with an exclusive license to manage a single process that the user community member’s contribution during our development was determined to be a critical component. Service providers will therefore not be competing on the basis of price. No one will hold another license for that process and without access to our software no one can come in and offer a similar service at a lower price than what the licensed service provider can. Service providers compete on a fundamentally different basis which include their competitive advantages of quality, specialization, the division of labor, automation, computers working for us not the other way around, innovation, leadership and integration to name just a few. These competitive advantages are inconsistent with having their flank constantly abused by repeated price competitors. Our service providers will be provided with the exclusive license to ensure they continue to focus and achieve their full competitive advantages. Besides the service providers are a cornerstone to building our $25.7 to $45.7 trillion value proposition for the oil and gas producers.

The mechanism in the Preliminary Specification that creates the null operation at a property is as follows. If the property is shut-in it will produce no data that goes into what we call our task and transfer network. If nothing goes through, the service providers will not receive anything in which they will act upon, process or generate their billing from. Therefore the cost of calculating and recording the butane sales for the property will be reported as zero and none of the service providers will have done any work that month for that property. Therefore the null operation is created, no profit but also no loss because all of the producers costs are variable. The service providers have the entire oil and gas industry inventory of properties as their client base. At anytime it may be that 15% of these properties are shut-in. If that is the case, and the service providers will have budgeted and planned for the possibility of that scenario, then they can accommodate this temporary 15% drop in their revenues. Enabling for the first time the situation where producers overhead costs are variable and indirectly controllable.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Our Oil and Gas Position Paper, Part VI

What we do know about oil and gas is it can be percolated down to its two attributes of temperature and pressure. The Information Technologies that are developed and scheduled for deployment in the next two years will have a dramatic effect on the operational control of the industry. 5G and the common discussion around the Internet of Things will become a reality where the ability to remotely monitor and control any and all aspects of the oil and gas operation will begin to become more of a reality than it is today. It will be available for far less cost, be more robust than what is done today and these operations, with the Preliminary Specification, will follow on through to the financial statements of the producer through advanced automation of administrative and accounting processes. To undertake the scope and scale of the issues in oil and gas many producers are converting themselves into software developers. This is an extension of what has gone on for many decades. Each CIO within the producer has a budget that fuels their empire and develops their own unique solution. Cobbling together hundreds of disparate applications in order to provide for their organization, they criticise People, Ideas & Objects or anyone for that matter, that we would be unable to undertake such a large scope and scale for the entire industry. Yet when we compare our budget to the budget in which they’ve cobbled together their solution, we begin to understand the reasons that each and every producer is and will continue to fail. Aggregating these individual producer budgets into one ERP solution would have been efficient and effective and far less costly than what is incurred today. If I am unable to complete our tasks with our budgeted resources, that remains a possibility. What we do know is that the producers current approach has failed. Our approach is to standardize the administrative and accounting processes within the industry so that each individual producer does not have to incur the time, energy and money necessary to develop these non-competitive attributes of their organizations. Each producer building the same unshared and unshareable administrative and accounting capabilities, which includes IT, are consuming the industries profitability.

So far we’ve talked very little about the technologies. It’s not about any specific technology anymore it’s about the business and more specifically how the business and industry will be structured in order to be profitable. As many people as there are in the world without software we wouldn’t be able to function without it. We stand on the shoulders of many giants. And yet, at the same time it is estimated that the impact of Information Technologies on the productivity in the economy has been minimal. Which may be the case. However what we also know is that for the past few hundred years the only manner in which productivity has expanded is through the further specialization and division of labor. These are the principles that we’ve used to solve many of the issues in oil and gas. Specifically the service providers are derived from our user community members and focus on one administrative or accounting process and use the entire industry as their client base. Eliminating the need for each producer to build their individual unshared and unshareable administrative and accounting capabilities which are exactly the same as each and every other producer. This requires the full stack of Information Technologies that exist in the marketplace today, and will need to be done in innovative ways. Then we will begin to see the real productivity gains in terms of the application of Information Technology through higher profitability of the oil and gas industry, lower administrative and accounting costs and better and more timely information.

We note that People, Ideas & Objects Intellectual Property consists of the following categories. The research that was conducted in determining the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer. The Preliminary Specification and its derivative works. The work of the user community, how this is acquired is discussed in the user community vision. The software code that is developed and of course the binaries that are used within the producer firms, the service providers and elsewhere. The licensing of the user community, service providers and the granting of the exclusive rights of access to the binaries on behalf of the producer firms by our coin holders. Yet you will notice I have not stated that we’re a software development firm. We have dropped that aspect of our organization as a result of the logistical difficulties and what we feel would be the unnecessary time consumed in developing a capability that we have budgeted for 600 developers. For us to grow from nothing to having all of the developers singing from the same hymn sheet, then mold them into the state of the art team that would be needed for this task would be too long in terms of the timeline that the industry has. Each year the value proposition of our software and services can be in the high triple digit billions of dollars. We feel it would be inefficient for us and the industry to pursue something that may take upwards of four to ten years to do. 

It is my personal opinion that no one has the wherewithal to challenge Oracle in terms of the quality of their software offering. What Larry Ellison and his team have done has made all others pale in comparison. It all has to do with the database in my opinion and that is where Oracle most particularly excels. If the data is wrong or the database is unable to conduct the operation correctly it doesn’t matter about much else. Performance of the overall system is another attribute of the database. The demand on these applications at times can be heavy. Oracle is light years ahead of anyone else and to me it appears that no one is even trying to compete anymore. IBM has repackaged their database offering as IBM DB2 and is a cloud offering. It has to be number two in the marketplace with number three being any number of pretenders. Microsoft included. IBM had a large lead as the creator of relational theory and rode that to dominance for many decades. I believe Oracle now has at least a decade on IBM DB2.

We have always configured the Preliminary Specification on the basis of Oracle’s Database, Java, Oracle Fusion Middleware and Oracle Fusion Applications. These also have been packaged as cloud offerings which we’re very pleased with. And there are many more peripheral applications that are provided by Oracle included in the Preliminary Specification. In our initial budget we also had the assistance of Oracle Consulting providing their software development services in terms of accelerating our delivery times. We have now dropped the software development aspect of our firm, chosen our distinct competitive advantages and will be handing Oracle the work of the development of the Preliminary Specification and our user communities contribution.

Artificial Intelligence, Machine learning and other pie in the sky dreams of the producers can’t be implemented until they get the base of their systems operational. Flying to the moon in Orville and Wilbur Wright's plane is going to be difficult. Maybe it would be possible but why would you try? Some producers are crediting Artificial Intelligence with building substantial value for their firm. As we’ve seen most producers are profitable, but where’s the cash? The role of IT in the producer firm and industry are far beyond what we’ve seen in the past. Today is a time when a different approach to the future and the long term are necessary. Information Technologies make fundamental changes to the outcome and profitability of industries. Picking up the latest tool and waving it around doesn’t.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Our Oil and Gas Position Paper, Part V

There is no consideration of an oil and gas future without discussion of the Information Technologies that are available in the marketplace today. The maturation of these over the past five years, from an ERP systems point of view, has been spectacular. What can be done in terms of what is available today is far beyond what has been implemented in oil and gas to date. My personal assessment of the systems that are in use by the oil and gas industry is that they have failed the oil and gas producers. In a world where software defines and supports the organization, when those oil and gas organizations and the industry as a whole has failed, and has failed to adjust to the issues that are causing systemic failure, then that has to be assessed as a resounding software failure as well. There are many reasons for the failure of the software vendors. Key among them is the financial abuse they’ve experienced at the hands of the oil and gas producers, their alleged clients. The software vendors products have therefore atrophied and their skills have degraded to the point where they are unable to appropriately service the industry and we have today's failure. The key point to note is that producers did not sacrifice any money on providing better management or information of their business, in order to drill the maximum number of wells possible.

The result of this history has demanded that People, Ideas & Objects take a different approach to our funding. We seek to raise the funds that we need to complete our developments in advance of our software development commencing. (Please see our ICO) This is in order to ensure that we do not become “blind sleepwalking agents of whomever will feed us.” Habermas. We must proceed to our completion without interruption and without undue influence from groups who seek compromise with the bureaucratic ways of the past. Creative destruction is at hand and we need to ensure that the configuration of the industry is true to the Preliminary Specification as its model with the user community filling in the details. Compromising to meet the current needs of the capital markets, or the bureaucrats in today’s producer firms will be unacceptable a decade from now. Our approach to the oil and gas marketplace is fundamentally different than that which has been provided to the producers by our competitors in the past. We have configured our organization as an Intellectual Property, Research and User community based provider. These are our distinct competitive advantages. We believe, fundamentally, that there is only one business in the very near future. And that is the software business. Just as the record store is now the iTunes app all industries will be operated in the same manner. Such that it’s not enough to own the oil and gas asset but also have access to the software that makes the oil and gas asset profitable. We see today that our competitors have not provided this, and the producers are systemically unprofitable.

Software is the app that users see. Software is derived from Intellectual Property, therefore all industries will be based on the software’s Intellectual Property. This has been our strategy from the beginning. In the 1990’s Intellectual Property was more of the wild west, if you saw something you used it. Now it has to be respected and as a result the implications in business are dramatic and those with the Intellectual Property have many opportunities they did not have before. In terms of the impact on the people who work in oil and gas the same can be stated. Intellectual Property will be the basis of their employability and value in the marketplace. Education being the base of their Intellectual Property they’ll begin with the development of their unique skills from there. What’s different today is that they’ll also have access to some form of contractual Intellectual Property that enables them to generate their value. Without it, they may otherwise be unemployable. The three forms of Intellectual Property that they may have in terms of their employment is the development of their own specific capabilities based on the Intellectual Property they’ve developed. Secondly they may acquire the rights to Intellectual Property on the basis of a license in a commercial relationship. This is the nature of our user community members and their service provider operations in the overall People, Ideas & Objects community. Or lastly they will work for a firm who has the Intellectual Property itself or have acquired it as a result of a license. Today’s producer bureaucrats are displeased with this element of our offering and are unaware of the world in which we now exist. It is their archaic system of centralized command and control that will be unable to compete in the future and have none of the requisite capabilities (software) in which to do so.

When it comes to capabilities People, Ideas & Objects has also configured our offering on a different basis than our competition. We are a change based software development capability for the oil and gas industry. Our user community is endowed with the exclusive rights to change the Intellectual Property that makes up the Preliminary Specification and its derivative works. Therefore the oil and gas industry, producer and each and every person in the industry will know who to contact in order to make a change in the software of the system. Who do they call to have changes made in their systems today? Our developers only listen to our user community members for the information they need to develop the software. Making our user community the power and control of the oil and gas industries accounting, administrative and business model leadership and implementation. This allows us to make the changes to the system as required in order to avoid any and all issues that arise and realize the opportunities. Industry will no longer be provided with static software configurations that hold the industry in the current business model that loses money chronically and absolutely. Undoubtedly at some point the Preliminary Specification would create its own similar issues to the difficulties being experienced in oil and gas today. With this change based software, user community and service provider offering the means in which to avoid that is inherent in our offering.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Monday, April 15, 2019

Our Oil and Gas Position Paper, Part IV

We need to provide a new future for the oil and gas industry in North America. One that is prosperous for all, from the shareholders, the people who work for the producers, the service and support industries and for those in the general economy. Profitability is the only manner in which an industry such as oil and gas can prosper, but at the same time provide the consumer with the most affordable means of energy. Profitability will fuel innovations in a competitive environment where producers are actively able to focus on their competitive advantages of their earth sciences and engineering capabilities, and their land and asset base. What has happened in the past four decades is unacceptable for all concerned. We’ve seen nothing but boom and bust throughout the industry with all of the value that should have been built, and all that was built before, destroyed. The culture that has developed from all of this knows no difference and there is no common sense evident in the industry anywhere. I’m only being honest when I say that we’re moving away from the existing producers and using creative destruction to rebuild the industry in the image of the Preliminary Specification. The situation currently provides no future for today’s producers, I am not of the belief they’ll survive. It would be foolhardy therefore for me to accept their money and suggest that I can do anything for them. They needed to call me five years ago.

Therefore the future is a blank canvas in which we’ve etched the outline of what and how we’ll operate the industry based on the Preliminary Specification. It deals with the issues that are prevalent today and deals with them constructively. The thing that most people would find odd about these issues is that all of them are related to accounting. The chronic, massive and deliberate distortions and deceptions that have gone on for four decades have covered over the lack of profitability and therefore the lack of value (de)generation. Whoever said accounting wasn’t important doesn’t understand business. There are many people who are responsible but none of them will be held to account. We can leave this past and the associated issues by regenerating the industry with the participation of many like minded people who share our concerns. Our future is never written, however, the Preliminary Specification is a workable model that has been formulated through ten years of research. It is the start that the industry needs. It is designed to be based on a subsequent collaborative development of thousands of people to fill-in the various components of what is required to ensure the producers are dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable. It is also the only idea that has been tested through time. The regeneration of the industry is therefore provided with a headstart in making the future real in both oil and gas, and the economy in general.

The most dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable countries will be provided with the affordable energy they need. With 23,200 man hours in each barrel of oil, producers will need to educate the consumers on the value and role that oil and gas has in making a prosperous future a reality for all concerned. The remainder of the 21st century could be significant in terms of the value that is generated across North America if the energy industry that we’re now creating undertakes this obligation and opportunity responsibly. We know the oil and gas reserves are there, that is not the issue. Profitability is the first order of business in order to ensure a sound foundation in which to expand to meet the continents future demands. The Preliminary Specification provides the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. That has to be priority one in terms of the tasks that we undertake. Then we can begin to rebuild the industry and its associated infrastructure that will be necessary in order to increase the deliverability of the industry and ensure that all of North America is competitive and robust.

All of this does not come about as a result of a “muddling along” and “doing nothing” strategy and operating procedure so the producers can buy time while they wait for the next upturn. Where the next upturn only occurs as a result of destroying the previous low water mark in terms of production deliverability. Leadership in the industry will therefore need to be developed. This can begin by selling the North American consumers on the value and the role that oil and gas makes in their lives. Cease funding the contrary opinions that are political niceties and are inherently providing strategic conflicts to the industry. Specifically I mean the environmental movement. It needs to be understood that the Nazi’s had it right when they said “if you repeat the lie often enough, people will believe it.” All but four years of my life, the four that I have no memory of, I’ve lived in an unending series of imminent, environmental armageddons. I don’t walk around in a gas mask. I am still protected by the ozone. Acid rain hasn’t got me yet. The ice age is still intermittent here in Canada. And as long as I can remember, and certainly since its first declaration in 1989, I can’t tell if global warming has had any effect or not. You can call me a “denier” which is what I am, I’ve just been around the block a few times and can see the results when you get the children and nutjob congresswomen predicting the future out of fear. These ad hominem attacks on people who have alternative thoughts about the environment are only typical of the desire of some to move toward socialism and control the population with fear. Oil and gas has a job to do and a responsibility, they can’t shirk this or blame it on others such as the governments or pipeline companies. If China or Europe are the most powerful economies in a decade then we’ll have achieved what the democrats have always sought, a second rate United States.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Friday, April 12, 2019

Our Oil and Gas Position Paper, Part III

Oil and Gas Future

Over the past number of decades the producers have relied on what they called “market rebalancing” to deal with their overproduction of oil or gas. Relying on this mechanism requires no effort, other than the few calories it takes to mouth the words. It is a critical and successful element of the “do nothing” operating procedure used by all oil and gas companies. In other words, just wait until the production profile of the industry atrophies to the point where it meets demand. It is the willful destruction of the productive capacity of the industry. A policy that is as foolish as “profitability isn’t what producers seek.” Or maybe I have that backwards, I can never remember which one is the least intelligent of the two. We also find throughout North America oil and gas CEO’s providing financial resources and verbal support to any and all the ludicrous environmental issues that will see the elimination of oil and gas from the market place before we all die in as little as twelve years. This is where the backbone of the industry begins to sag precipitously. Logistical and political issues are the key difficulties of the oil and gas CEO. These are all derivative of the environmental causes they parrot willingly. They accept that there are no pipelines for their overproduction and will accept commodity price differentials that take 90% of their revenues. “Their value is in the oil and gas reserves they hold in the ground!” This is not a business it’s a science experiment! As long as there was investor money and there is someone to blame for their difficulties, that is all that matters.

The Elementary school kids are terrified that we’re destroying the planet for them and they won’t graduate high school as a result, they and the planet will be dead. What has become almost certain imminent demise in the next decade is believed by most people, yet no one acts. And where is the adult argument being put across by the oil and gas producers? There is none, and that is wholly consistent with the “muddle along and do nothing” point of view. This imminent environmental armageddon is a foolish thing to believe for an oil and gas producer, and an irresponsible approach for their role in society. What will they do when the demand for energy increases, point to the environment movement and say that “we thought we were all dead.” Or “where is the wind and solar that was the replacement.” This is the quality and depth of thinking that has been exhibited in oil and gas for four decades. If you find my writing too sarcastic I’m sorry, it's the only way that I can deal with the frustration of having to watch so much destruction occur across the industry while having what I believe to be the solution at the ready. “If demand for energy doubles in the future we’ll just get the money we need from investors and bankers. We know how to do it, the reserves are all in the ground.” The nature of oil and gas today.

Producers and the industry need to begin to assert their point of view in the discussion. Yes, there could be environmental consequences of the consumers use of hydrocarbons. Nonetheless the consumers can’t live without hydrocarbons and their need for them in the future is far greater than what it is today. Wind and solar as a replacement are as big a myth as the myths regarding the environment. We’ll discuss that more clearly in this position paper next. Producers drill wells. They leave everything else in the business to others. Pipelines are regulated companies that install the pipelines. They are the focus of environmentalist who receive financial and verbal support from the producers. The environmentalists actively demonstrate and obstruct the process to the point where it’s difficult for pipeline companies to get pipelines put in place. This as far as the producers in the oil and gas industry are concerned is the government's fault. What producers have done is handed a financially, logistical and politically complex and difficult bureaucratic process over to a regulated bureaucracy in the pipeline companies, to seek approval from the ultimate bureaucracy, the government. Producers leadership and management of the pipeline process is complete once the checks to Greenpeace are mailed.

What they need to be doing is informing the consumers of the choices they have to make. Accept that the environmentalists are right and start hiking to the outback. Or, understand that each barrel of oil equivalent has the mechanical leverage of 23,200 man hours of labor. I ran the calculation that states the annual global output of oil and gas is therefore equivalent to the output of 76 times the world's population. If consumers want to rely on alternative means of energy then there will be a wholesale downward swing in industrial capacity than what oil and gas provides today. Without oil and gas there is probably 95% overpopulation and the quality of life would be prehistoric. So let's keep scaring the kids because they are the thought leaders in society today, we know it’s not the producers. But that is the point of the exercise isn’t it. If the producers accept the children's concern for the planet then they’re absolved of the responsibility to ensure that oil and gas is provided for the future. If they find that they’re unable to provide for the demand they’ll be able to point to the children and say they thought they were serious and there was no reason not to believe the children.

We see the consequences, particularly here in Canada, when our primary industries are not profitable. The carry on effects down through the secondary and tertiary industries is highly detrimental, and the general economy suffers as a result of the lack of growth and investment. You have to remember though that this is the declared strategy of the producers to “muddle along, do nothing and rebalance markets.” Which is as we discussed the willful destruction of the productive capacity of the industry. We are one fifth of the way through the 21st century and we have an industry that fundamentally believes that there are good days and bad days. When the bad days arrive, that’s when you shrug your shoulders. To effectively manage the business beyond the ups and downs of the commodity price cycle takes a lot of effort and work. Something we’ve seen no signs of in the past four decades. The capacity to spend money, blame others and shuffle the rest into your own pocket are the only strategic competitive advantages of today’s oil and gas bureaucrat! There are lessons on these topics held at each producer every day.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Our Oil and Gas Position Paper, Part II

Yesterday we began discussing our position paper. We pick up where we were discussing the results of 1970’s era SEC designated accounting changes that began a cultural change in the management of the producer, and the beginnings of the dependence on annual investor infusions and cash flow. Profitability became a foreign concept that was deemed of no value to the producer.

Why are these such issues today? The culture of the oil and gas industry is an issue due to the fact that the belief that value is generated in drilling is not backed up by the financial performance of these businesses. And when I say the financial performance I limit that to just include the cash. The industry became a massive call on investor funds each and every year. There never was or is any understanding that “business” should be self supporting. It was necessary that you “build the business” and this was represented by “building the balance sheet” which is the unanimous calling of the producers even today. Spending is the only capability and is the decided competitive advantage of oil and gas. As proof you can look at all of those reserves. The problem the producers don’t see is that you can’t and you never have produced any “real” profits from the reserves. The value that has been invested in the industry is sitting in the ground with those reserves as represented by the bloated balance sheets of property, plant and equipment. Reporting only the operating and royalties as costs, more or less, that's all the costs left after the majority of costs are capitalized, making the producer look profitable. The fact is everyone believed those bloated assets and profits. The profits were not just over reported as a result of not recognizing much of the cost of oil and gas exploration and production. Producers only deplete the property, plant and equipment account on the basis of taking all of the capital costs that were spent. Allocating these costs to the entire reserves base, and only recognizing the capital costs that would have been apportioned to the reserves that were produced that year. Leaving the capital on the balance sheet for decades at a time.

What we had in essence was a massively profitable industry based on the chronic spending of investors money. The amounts of recorded capital in property, plant and equipment weren’t assets, as represented in the specious financial statements of the producers, and rubber stamped by the public accountants who should have known better and done something about it. They were and are the unrecognized capital costs of past production. We believe any and all producers should be subject to a pro-forma accounting adjustment to consider the reality of this situation by moving at least 65% of property, plant and equipment to depletion. What we then find is that all of shareholders equity is eliminated in the industry and the banks are in financial jeopardy too. Oil and gas is a capital intensive industry implying that the majority of its costs are capital in nature. Just because the SEC defines the outer limit of what a producers property, plant and equipment account can be, that does not mean that each and every producer reaches that limit each and every year. The most competitive producer would strive to recognize their costs as quickly as they could and hold the smallest balance of property, plant and equipment.

When investors are told profits are as healthy as they’re reported in the industry over these past four decades. They rush in with their money in order to capture some of those profits. More investors lead to overinvestment in the industry which leads to the chronic, systemic overproduction that we see. The chronic problem that has existed in oil and gas since 1986 when OPEC first dropped the price of oil. $10 was their price and all the North American producers had to do was to pull back production 15% in order to rectify the price decline. What they did was nothing. Except for bring about the beginnings of the second cultural phenomenon that is systemic throughout the industry. Looking under each and every rock for the responsible scapegoat and crying “oh whoa is me” in the process. In seeing this it became clear to me that the configuration and structure of both the producers and industry could not reduce production. They’re not configured for that. It would only leave large portions of overhead uncovered and profitability would suffer. I therefore set out to build the software that was necessary to enable the industry to deal with the chronic overproduction that was occurring as a result of the chronic overinvestment created by the specious accounting and financial statements that were produced. That is the Preliminary Specification that provides the oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Everywhere and always. We believe this chronic overproduction situation has created 28 poorly performing years out of the last 33. With shale it will be terminal.

Without real profitability. Without anyone searching for value outside of the reserves that were being discovered. Without any half decent reporting being undertaken anywhere. The value that was the oil and gas industry and the investment dollars put in has been frittered and wasted while the bureaucrats whistled by the tombstones. The industry is now worthless as it demands capital in order just to operate. The cash crisis created as a result of investor and banker withdrawal is slowly progressing towards it final demise. Cash was consumed, lines of credit were drawn, more cash was consumed, properties were sold for half of their recorded value, working capital is now diminishing at a remarkable rate. This has taken three years to become a serious problem throughout the industry. Now the tough part begins. Debts are slowly becoming due and the bankers are generally satisfied to this point to roll the debt over. Even to the poorest performers. As time passes and no plans, no strategy other than “muddle along and do nothing” become obvious as to its unanimous adoption throughout the industry. The bankers will become spooked and with the lack of action and diminishing cash, will bankers begin to want to see more cash? How long before this becomes material to the banking sector and rolling the debt over can’t continue? Then what, is that the day my phone rings off the hook?

People, Ideas & Objects have assessed that the beatings that we’ve been subject to since 2003 have been enough. That we are also unable to take on the task of saving those that have shown no propensity to save themselves, and have traveled down the wrong road for too long for us to retrieve them. Creative destruction is the tool we’re using to exercise the necessary changes in the industry. The scope and scale of changes that the Preliminary Specification necessitates demand an inertia that I no longer maintain, or may never have had. Therefore we have adopted other plans in which we will prepare the Preliminary Specification and the rebuilding of the oil and gas industry based on providing them with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations.

There is a long history of failures in the oil and gas ERP software market. It is a small market with possibly 150 producers able to purchase a system that meets their needs. Producers have used this fact to abuse the vendors by playing one off against the other and gaining the software product for just the service contract. Keeping the ERP vendor on a starvation diet was consistent with their thinking that accounting systems interfere with the drilling budget. People, Ideas & Objects, IBM and Oracle have all used the method of having the producers pay the upfront costs of development. In the late 1990’s Oracle left as a result of the frustration of trying to deal with the producers who had no appreciation or budget for the type of solutions that were needed. IBM owned the market leading application in Qbyte. There inability to raise any money for new software development, finding the same frustrations, led them to sell out of the oil and gas ERP marketspace in 2005. People, Ideas & Objects are committed to the oil and gas ERP marketspace. We have developed significant and necessary value the producers need. We however have had the same difficulties of IBM and Oracle. We are unable to deal with the producers who are incapable of saving themselves and are therefore working on what will be the systems, the Preliminary Specification, for the regenerated oil and gas producers from the ashes of these producers creative destruction.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Our Oil and Gas Position Paper, Part I

Background

The following series of blog posts represent People, Ideas & Objects Position Paper with respect to the overall achievements the oil and gas industry must strive for in the next three decades. These are what we seek to provide the North American producer through the development of the software and services defined in the Preliminary Specification. Enhanced capabilities that enable producers and the industry to undertake a strategic and tactical business approach that provide a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable footing. Software is the enabling technology of the 21st century. When organizations are supported and defined by the software that is consistent with the industry and producers objectives, strategy and tactics, then success and profitability will be the outcome. When organizations are not supported or defined by the software that they use they’re limited and constrained in achieving any results that are competitive in the marketplace for capital, labor and the support of the public. People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification is the result of our research based on what we’ve determined is necessary in order to make the change from using the corporation as the key organizational construct of the producer, to use the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer. It is a fundamental reorganization of the industry and the producer firm in order to deal with the issues that are prevalent today. Enabling a dynamic change based organizational capability throughout the producer and industry. Positioning the producer and industry for the challenging and difficult future that we all agree will be the most dramatic and exciting the industry has ever experienced.

To execute the necessary changes to build, implement and operate the Preliminary Specification doesn’t exist in the oil and gas industry. Based on the work that we’ve done in this market we also believe that it will never exist in the current configuration of producers. This is due to the response we’ve received from the industry in our attempts to market our product. Their response has led us to the conclusion that they can’t, won’t and will not ever change from the status quo. And that now creative destruction is a necessary and valuable tool to eliminate the unproductive and most particularly unprofitable elements of a poorly performing industry. People, Ideas & Objects are therefore now taking an active role in the preparation of what we see as the new oil and gas industry, based on the vision of the Preliminary Specification, where profitability is achieved throughout the industry everywhere and always. We believe the nature and characteristics of these resources can not currently justify our use of oil or gas to future generations if it is not used in a manner where it was at least produced profitably. We therefore can ensure that because it wasn’t produced unprofitably it wasn’t used wastefully and provided its full value to society. In summary then, we are focused on rebuilding the industry on the vision of the Preliminary Specification. We are unable to provide any value to the current producers as the forces of creative destruction have been put in play through bureaucratic neglect. The time in which they should have acted was many years ago. There is nothing that People, Ideas & Objects are able to do for them in the short term, and we are of the belief that the long term is beyond the grasp of the current producers as their situation is terminal.

The common sense approach of the Preliminary Specification is in dispute by the producer bureaucrats who are challenged by the Information Technologies disintermediation that we represent. They know instinctively this would be the end of their reign of control and power over the commanding heights of the oil and gas industry and are unwilling to give up what has provided them with untold riches at the expense of the shareholders, employees of the producer, the service, secondary and tertiary industries that depend and support the oil and gas industry. It is this conflict and the constraint of the ways and means in which they approach the industry that has created the ongoing tragedy that is playing out over this past decade. Shale has been an exceptional endowment of value across North America. Due to the chronic mismanagement by the bureaucrats the only benefactor of the shale reserves is the energy consumer who realizes a substantial discount on their energy consumption as a result of the specious accounting that has been used in the industry over the past four decades. Outside of this, shale has been an absolute failure from a business point of view. The commercialization of shale is not a topic of concern of the oil and gas bureaucrats, yet is the primary concern of the oil and gas investors who have now withheld their capital from the industry in excess of three years. There are no plans or strategies in place to deal with these difficulties or how to approach the future demands. The financial capabilities of the producers are close to collapsing as a result of the investor and banker strike that began over three years ago.

It is People, Ideas & Objects belief that through a fundamental accounting change that occurred in the late 1970’s. When producers were forced to change to Full Cost accounting and the associated ceiling test regulated by the SEC. A methodology that determines what the capital assets recorded in property, plant and equipment are. This enabled producers to record “assets” that equalled, with some adjustments, the total of their reserves times the current commodity prices as the upper limit of their property, plant and equipment account. If these assets exceeded the reserves “value” then they would be subject to the dreaded ceiling test write down that corrected any asset overvaluation. What was quickly discovered in the high interest rate environment of the 1980’s was that interest was a key attribute of the asset value and therefore interest expenses were capitalized. Someone then asked about overhead with the resulting policies today that see approximately 85% of all overhead in the industry capitalized to property, plant and equipment. Slowly the culture of the industry became a spending frenzy fueled by what came to be the annual share offering. This culture has grown over the past four decades to know no difference in terms of what and how the industry generates value and what destroys value. The belief is that drilling wells releases the oil and gas reserves that are tremendously valuable and that is how the game is played. Until People, Ideas & Objects began arguing that profitability was necessary, the industry did not care whatsoever about profits, it was about cash flow, not profits. We believe these reserves are of no value if they can’t be produced profitably and profitably considering an appropriate accounting of all of the costs, including capital, in a capital intensive industry.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Tuesday, April 09, 2019

I Can't Offer Investors Anything of Value

I can certainly be critical of the situation occurring in oil and gas today. The situation in People, Ideas & Objects is subject to the same critical review. We would not be able to provide any investor with any return on their investment in People, Ideas & Objects. This is due primarily to our high costs and very small market. Producers have all of the bargaining power and the investors would end up subsidizing the producers use of their ERP systems. Making our software incapable of functioning as a standalone enterprise. That is not only today but everyday of our existence. We could never attain the levels necessary to make People, Ideas & Objects a viable commercial success at any time and therefore have configured our offering based on a project methodology. This approach being similar to building a bridge, you don’t build the company to build a bridge, you just start with the resources necessary to build the bridge to completion and then operate it from there. The question might be asked do we need a bridge? What’s wrong with the ERP systems that are available in the marketplace today? Just as the producers are failing we believe that software and most specifically ERP software defines and supports the organization. If the oil and gas producers are failing, then the ERP software marketplace has failed to provide these producers with the appropriate systems they need to succeed. That is the nature of software in the 21st century. It’s not enough to own the oil and gas assets, it's also necessary to have access to the software that makes the oil and gas assets profitable. Our competitors are not oriented to change and they were built using old technologies which have more or less expired. Not that the technologies are that important, ours is an organizational point of view. One which brings about significant additional value to the industry.

My point is that I’m not taking anyone’s money if I can’t provide them with the opportunity to make something of their investment. I can’t see that happening and therefore we need alternative means in order to acquire the necessary capital to build the Preliminary Specification, our user community, and the service providers. Our Revenue Model initially considered that the producers would pay for the development of the Preliminary Specification. This has proven to be undoable and an abject failure. I believe this failure had to be proven in the marketplace so that all concerned knew the producers would never invest the money, time and energy into ERP systems. Making the necessary changes to return to profitability are seen as too radical by the bureaucrats in the producer firms and that creative destruction is therefore the necessary solution and now the optimal path. And that is where we stand today. Many might argue that the alleged profitability of today’s producers shows a viable path forward. There is actually a very strong consensus that this is the case today. The media, most of the industry and many independent investors insist its the case. We are somewhat alone in our belief, but certainly alone in our actions at this point. That does not make our time and effort fruitless. We have built significant value for the industry by proposing a solution to the issues that plague the industry, and preparing a plan for the future with the necessary community to make it so. Time will be on our side.

The solution we’ve taken to resolve our large capital requirements and the difficulties in funding the Preliminary Specification is the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) marketplace. It has had a remarkable impact in the financial community with its capacity to attract large investments and attention within a short period of time. However with all new technologies there is a cycle that is passed through in order to become commonplace. That cycle is intact with ICO’s only commanding $118 million in the first quarter of 2019. Compared to our budget that is a non-starter. However, just as many companies survived the .com bubble in 2000 and have thrived since, the same may be the case for the ICO marketplace overall. One of the issues I think that may have contaminated the ICO funding opportunities is the misunderstanding of the role this new financial mechanism can play in society.

The SEC has argued that too many of the coin offerings represent equity investments and therefore should be regulated. Many don’t believe that ICO’s need to be regulated if they maintain their non equity positions in their proposed marketplaces. ICO’s need to be about the rights that are granted to them through some structure where they control access or other rights and opportunities. People, Ideas & Objects coin offering does not include any equity as part of our ICO. The only grant that we make is the perpetual license for the coin holders to access the Preliminary Specification when it’s operational. Therefore any producer that wants to use the system will have to negotiate with the coin holder. With the producer knowing they can maximize their revenues by using the Preliminary Specification, and therefore to ensure their shareholders are provided with the highest possible returns, they will negotiate with the coin holders for a share of the extrinsic value that is generated by the system. That is what People, Ideas & Objects are calling our free money strategy. The producer does nothing, no time, money or effort goes into the development of the Preliminary Specification and yet they acquire all the value. These monthly access fees due to the coin holders will be passed on to the energy consumers as a part of the oil and gas operations. If the producers choose not to participate with the coin holders, this missed opportunity would raise curiosity in the oil and gas producers investor group as to why their producer firm was not participating in the value increases by using People, Ideas & Objects free money strategy.

Compared to the volume of activity in the ICO market this year it is reasonable to assume that the ICO may be a dead end for People, Ideas & Objects. I’m not of that opinion for a number of reasons. It is a substantial financial innovation that is necessary in the marketplace. It resolves the high level of concentration of IT firms, or monopoly that we are currently witnessing with Google, FaceBook et al. And excludes, for now, the regulatory burden that defers many ideas and opportunities from being realized. Our objective was to issue our coin offering in 3.5 years. A time frame that may be consistent with today’s ICO market timelines. A time frame that is wholly inconsistent in terms of any assistance that we can provide the current producers. We believe they will be unable to remove themselves from their situation and will be creatively destroyed in that 3.5 years time for our ICO and then the time that we will need to develop the Preliminary Specification. As always we do wish them the best.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Monday, April 08, 2019

Industries State of Affairs

It has been a very good first quarter here in 2019. Oil prices are up handsomely and recorded a 31.3% increase from the December 31, 2018 prices. We have not seen that kind of performance in terms of the commodity price in many years. Natural gas holds itself in its constrained range of $2.67 at the end of March 2019. Natural gas prices have been so fundamentally destroyed they’ll take many years of committed effort to restore them to the level of profitability. Continually trading at its constant low of 20 time’s multiple of oil prices. Rehabilitation of these prices back to the 6 to 1 ratio that was the case for decades will take producers some recognition that there’s an issue. Which may take the current management a few more decades to figure out. Natural gas sales out of the Permian are associated gas, nonetheless there are differentials on oil there as well. These gas “prices” reached negative $1.15 last week and I’m sure “it is what it is” as far as management is concerned.

With the rise in commodity prices there can only be a similar rise in the stock value of the producer firms. I feel the only claims the management of the current oil and gas producers can make is that they’re a proxy to the continually rising prices of energy. They never understood or attempted in any way to build value outside of commodity price increases. And therefore this quarters performance in terms of the market capitalization of our sample of 23 producers increased by 12%. A reasonable return considering producers have to face their shareholders at their AGM’s soon. And which if we recall that is a much better performance all around than in the fourth quarter of 2018 when commodity prices fell 37.7% and the market capitalization of our 23 producers declined 30.7%. It would seem, as it has in the decade of this downturn / depression, that the producers more accurately follow the prices down than they respond to any upward momentum. That may be why companies such as Obsidian are now trading at .64 percent of its all time high. Less than 1%, yet if you look at the message boards for this stock you’ll find that just as many people who own this stock still believe it has a future, as they also apparently still believe that President Trump colluded.

Here’s a surprise to everyone. As much as Obsidian doesn’t have a future, I also believe that the North American oil and gas producers, no matter what their makeup is, will not survive. The situation as it stands for them today is terminal. The destruction of value has been comprehensive to the point where the industry is currently worth substantially negative values. The current cash crisis will not be resolved unless oil prices reach at least $130 and are maintained for a decade to a decade and a half for these albatrosses to be turned around. The assertion that the industry can recognize its operating costs and the royalties it pays each year as its only costs, and that makes them wildly profitable are over. The deferral of the capital, in a capital intensive industry, overhead and the kitchen sink into property, plant and equipment for several decades has been a lucrative scheme to attract the attention of the investors. Capital flowed into the industry to each and every wannabe oil and gas producer who could mouth the appropriate words. It was a tax and spend regime. The generation of value in order to build the organization was not the point, it was spend investors money until you had the biggest, best, baddest, most beautiful balance sheet known to man. That has been the history of the industry since the SEC implemented their ludicrous Full Cost accounting and Ceiling Test provisions in the late 1970’s.

Its difficult to comprehend for some people why this is such an issue. Your history, your legacy and culture as a producer has been developed under the premise that you were doing things of value by building the balance sheet. Spending was the means of success. Now that spending has accumulated to a disproportionate size on their balance sheet in terms of what the producer truly represents. The producer is stuck. They could certainly write it off and reestablish themselves with a more realistic left hand side of the balance sheet. It’s the right side that’s of concern. Then, as the purpose of accounting is to report performance, the performance based on the historical cost would show that you’ve been spending money with no concept of building anything of value. The shareholders have nothing left of their money represented in that performance and you’re forcing the banks to take a bath too. If this was one or two producers then it would be easily resolved. It's the entire North American producer base. The only legitimate method of dealing with this is to now perform. And that means time will need to be spent to earn the real profitability to recognize the property, plant and equipment costs as depletion. Taking more investor money will not solve this for two reasons. Investment is not profits and no one’s letting you incinerate their money anymore. There is also the issue of your history, legacy and culture that needs to turn from a 500 lbs functioning alcoholic to a gold medalist in the next Olympics 100 meters.

What is a good oil man / women these days. What is a good oil and gas producer these days. What is a good oil and gas property these days. What is a good oil and gas formation to drill into these days. I don’t know, and worst of all no one knows the answer to any of these questions. The producers balance sheets have all been homogenized and homologated into the same configuration. Only their capacity to attract capital over the past four decades differentiates them in terms of their overall size. It’s all just sludge and fudge that represents an industry that thinks they’re able to build value by spending money. That they’re the golden ones with the midas touch who make the world go round. What was built in the industry prior to the late 1970’s was impressive to me as it also performed from a financial point of view. Since then it’s been all about cash flow, which is really only the capital that was once invested being returned. And these dollars went to fuel the expansion of overhead, more capital expenditures and the most creative and lucrative forms of bureaucratic compensation.

So yes, Obsidian has a chance. Just as Jim Carrey had a one in a million chance in the movie Dumb and Dumber. That is the only opportunity that you can give producer bureaucrats today. After three years of having the investors pull their funding, they think they’ve still got a shot. That they’ll make shale commercial. Natural gas prices will be rehabilitated. Accept that OPEC isn’t the issue, its us. Determine what profitability is and how to make the changes that are needed to enable it. After all it’s only been a decade that we’ve been in this difficult situation and they can’t identify or discuss any of these issues that they’re facing. To approach a difficult and technically challenging future that they have no preparation or understanding on how to approach commercially! Not to worry, if the price of oil did increase by 200% then Obsidian and all the other producers stock would rise by 76% and wouldn’t that be something!

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

I just want to note for my own purposes more than anything else. Reviewing my logs for the past year or two I’ve had a Linux user who uses Chrome as their browser coming in and doing wholesale dumps of this blog. Each week I see them conduct approximately 100 page views which would be almost 1,000 blog posts. A curious situation. I can’t identify the individual or group because they come in through a proxy using a different country each week. However mostly from South Korea. I’m recording this for my purposes here to note this behaviour. 

Friday, April 05, 2019

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Discounts and Destruction

By undertaking the approach that we are with moving the industry away from the management by the bureaucrats and establishing the Preliminary Specifications software and services of People, Ideas & Objects, our user community, service providers and coin holders as the means in which the industry is operated. Investors will have a more direct opportunity to affect change and to have their needs met within the industry either through ownership of the coins, after the ICO, or through our user community. What we know in terms of the behaviour of the producers this past decade is they’ll have no fight in them regarding the activities of the producer itself. They’re left to atrophy and degrade as part of the natural bureaucratic process they’ve implemented. What we might find is a continuation of the fight that People, Ideas & Objects have experienced since August 2003 when we first proposed the shift to the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer. The threat of new ideas and the issue they cause in terms of challenging bureaucrats financial benefits, as a result of these bureaucrats do nothing approach to the industry. All that I can suggest is be prepared for a good fight in terms of being involved with the implementation of these ideas. These people have developed excellent skills in ensuring nothing ever changes and no new ideas are offered to them.

We discussed in yesterday’s post the escalating capital costs of oil and gas exploration and production. How this escalation is hidden in the treatment of capital by the industry by deferring the recognition of these costs and diluting them with capital costs from prior decades. Or should I say prior era’s. The need to move these costs to the income statement in a timely manner is more relevant today as the cost increases that have been experienced in the industry, and the projected capital costs of the next 25 years are far beyond any capital markets appetite or capability. The ability to cycle through the process of investment, recovery and subsequent investment is the only manner in which the industry will be able to approach a future with this scale of capital demands. Consumers, who the producers bureaucrats have discounted their energy costs by the amount that they were capable to hoodwink investors with their specious accounting, will be faced with much higher commodity prices. They will need to retire those capital costs that sit on producers balance sheets today, or as we call them those unrecognized capital costs of past production, and also pay for the future capital costs of oil and gas, a capital intensive industry.

With the irreplaceable use of oil and gas and its limited supply why at any time, would we produce unprofitably? How can we justify the usage of such a valuable resource to future generations? With 23,200 man hours in each boe why would we not appreciate the value that is represented in a commodity that today may cost $200 / barrel, or $0.0086 per man hour? Instead with the chronic lack of leadership all that we hear in the industry is the parroting of the radical environmentalists that suggest we’ll be all dead in 12 years. The sooner we get rid of these fools the better off we’ll be. The consumer is going to have to pay for the commodities that they ultimately consume. The end user pays in the capitalist system. Fear that we may force consumers into using alternative energy sources is the nightmare that keeps the bureaucrats awake at night, when in reality it should be their financial statements.

We are changing the industry to become the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable industry everyone needs. We see absolutely nothing from the current bunch. Our Preliminary Specification, our user community, the service providers and our coin holders are configured to make the necessary changes in the industry and producer firms. By providing the oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. With our software and services only profitable production will be produced. If a property is unprofitable, based on a detailed accounting that includes all of the costs, then it is shut-in. This is not collusion as we’re accused of consistently. Robert Mueller found no collusion whatsoever. What we’re doing is using sound business principles used throughout well managed businesses. By producing only profitable production any unprofitable production is shut-in until such time as it can be reworked to the point where it can be returned to profitable production. Therefore the producer no longer has any unprofitable properties diluting the profitable properties and their earnings are the highest that they can be. Their reserves are saved for a time when they can be produced profitably. Those reserves will not have to carry the incremental costs of additional losses as costs to be recovered. And the commodity markets will find the marginal cost when the unprofitable production is removed from the marketplace. That is how businesses operate and if People, Ideas & Objects et al have to be punished for that then we’ll do what we have to.

If we are to approach a future with the oil and gas industries difficulties and expected costs, then we’ll need a means to finance them. The only reasonable conclusion anyone will come to is that these demands are beyond the scope and scale of any market. The consumer is the only source of the financial resources necessary to meet these demands. The past and future capital costs will need to be recognized and recovered quickly in order to have these dollars available to the future producers who will soon be generating from the ashes of the relics we have today. That is how we move forward, and if oil and gas becomes too expensive for the consumer then they’ll have alternatives to meet their demands. Let the market solve these questions, not the bureaucratic management of the producers forcing the investors to discount the consumers consumption of energy.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Then Came the Capital

In our prior post we covered off the variable operating costs that would be incurred during the day-to-day of the oil and gas producer and Joint Operating Committee. Today we want to discuss the different treatment of capital in the Preliminary Specification and how these new policies would better support securitization. The investor in the securitized oil and gas investment is not that interested in undertaking a substantial capital commitment in terms of their securitized investment. They’re more about the earnings and cash flow that can be generated as a result of the investment. Having to put money in will at times be inevitable, however these capital requirements should be able to be met by the net revenues of the other properties pooled within the securitized investment. Therefore the cash flow generated by the securitized properties is going to have to consider all of the costs of oil and gas exploration and production on a timely basis and include those costs in their pricing charged to the consumer. Selling commodities for the operating costs is a strategy that is used to overcome occasional difficult periods in a business. What is not necessary is to operate in a manner where the operating costs are the only costs that are recovered, such as the oil and gas industry has been doing for the past four decades.

The two differences in the methodology of the Preliminary Specifications management of capital are more in line with the demands for performance in the capital marketplace today. The deployment and recovery of capital in terms of the time these cash resources are resident on the producers or securitized investors balance sheet needs to change. Taking decades to recover the costs that were invested in the current period is inconsistent with the matching principle of accounting. Oil and gas is a capital intensive business and that has to be reflected in the costs to the consumers of their consumption of these resources. It is also anticipated that the next 25 years will demand significantly more capital than at any other time in the history of the industry. Storing these costs in property, plant and equipment to enable the CEO to strut around and boast about the size of their balance sheet is over in terms of a value adding process. Particularly now with the shale reserves being much more costly and having steeper decline curves which invoke additional volumes of capital in order to work over the property and maintain its deliverability. Therefore the two differences we are implementing in our methodology is we’re recording only tangibles as assets in property, plant and equipment. This will move substantial amounts of capital off the balance sheet that will hit the income statement in the current period. Secondly we will be differentiating the capital costs incurred to maintain the production profile and the capital costs incurred to expand the production profile. We will continue to maintain the 30 month period in which any assets are depleted.

Whether these are implemented in terms of the financial statements that are published is not the issue at this point. The point of the whole exercise that People, Ideas & Objects is making here is that these changes are for the pricing of the commodities to determine profitability. Determination of the pricing of the commodities at the property level is not done by the industry today. Producers use the high throughput production model and seek to ensure that full production is achieved at all times in order to defer the costs of their high overheads. People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specifications decentralized production models price maker strategy demands that pricing and profitability be determined at each property to assess its performance and assess if it continues to produce. Profitable properties that are retiring large volumes of costs will have an impact on the financial statements.

Discussion regarding the tangible vs intangible nature of the capitalization of a cost is clear. Since the majority of the drilling costs are intangible we believe this will bring about a new discipline within the producer in terms of how they approach the drilling of wells. However with the enhanced cash flow as a result of the price maker strategy they will have the cash readily available to drill. The real difference in terms of the capitalization differences between People, Ideas & Objects and the current producers is the costs to increase the production profile. When we look at these costs and other capital costs that are employed to maintain the production profile we see a huge disparity. Capital costs that are needed to expand the production profile are in the range of $200 to $400 / boe. A substantial difference to those that are listed in the producers current production profile. Why is this and how is this not being recognized in the industry today? Good question. In 2018 our sample of 23 producers exited with a production profile of 9.998 million boe / day. This was an increase in production of 216.8 thousand boe / day or a 2.17% increase from 2017. This was achieved on the basis of both maintenance and expansion capital expenditures, of $63.48 billion. Now you may argue my logic here but I think this proves my point. Taking the $63.48 billion and determining on the basis of that current cost, what would the cost be to replace the 9.998 million boe / day = $2.9 trillion. The current amount sitting in property, plant and equipment of these producers is $468.7 billion. Let’s assume that ⅔ of the capital employed has been depleted in prior periods for a total of $1.4 trillion. Therefore capital costs have generally doubled from prior periods.

My argument is that there is a large differential in cost between the capital costs of the current production profile and the costs to expand production. Although this calculation is very rough it shows that the differential, I believe, needs to be recognized and better understood in terms of how it is managed in the industry. If we avoided the recognition of these ballooning capital costs by deferring them and then diluting them with a long history of other capital costs, then holding all of these costs for decades on the balance sheet, would that hide this anomaly adequately? How can consumers begin to appreciate and pay for these capital costs? By moving the existing capital costs out of property, plant and equipment in the next 30 months will not only return the cash to the producers, assuming they are producing only profitable production and charging the consumer the appropriate prices to cover their costs, we will begin to see the capital costs escalate substantially for new production due to the elimination of the deferral and dilution. What we hear instead is that Exxon expects they will produce from the Permian for $15 / boe considering all of the costs. Which I guess is true when you take the costs of all the capital employed to drill, complete and equip and allocate those costs to the forty or fifty year life of those reserves. We don’t believe that’s a business, more of an exercise.

To the point of our securitization of oil and gas properties. The capital costs are an issue that has plagued the industry for four decades. I have argued this point here consistently and now the industry is finding that they can’t resolve this overnight with a few accounting entries. But it gets worse. The capital costs are opaque in terms of the future and the consumers are as unaware of these costs as the producers themselves. Ensuring that the capital costs are included in the price of oil and gas is a necessity. It is a capital intensive industry therefore the costs are predominantly capital. The ability to recognize and recover these costs needs to be enhanced and managed appropriately if securitization will be able to function appropriately.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.