Friday, February 16, 2024

Hours, not Days

People, Ideas & Objects have set a precedent, demonstrating that producer officers and directors may deliberate on an innovative idea for a product or service for upwards of 33 years, effectively squandering trillions of dollars of other people's resources. When confronted with undeniable evidence of their inaction, they seem to require guidance to make the correct decisions. As of now, the decision to pick up our option on February 16, 2024, remains uncertain, with no communication received thus far.

The broader oil & gas economy in North America bears the scars of the missing $4 trillion we have documented. Shareholders, having been ignored, express their displeasure. While it's true that dividends are being distributed, this action hardly compensates for the substantial returns that should have been provided over decades or the capital raised through dubious earnings reports. The devastation inflicted on the service industry by officers and directors cannot be overlooked. The lack of a forward-looking plan or strategy leaves the industry ill-equipped for the challenges ahead, devoid of necessary resources.

The oil & gas industry's future hinges on its ability to innovate and meet the energy independence demands of the continent. Unfortunately, innovation has been stifled, historically thriving in the service sector but rarely within producer firms themselves. Innovators who dedicated their lives to bringing ideas to market find their efforts nullified as their intellectual property is co-opted and shared among competitors by the very officers and directors meant to lead.

A point arrives when it must be declared that enough is enough. The industry cannot sustain itself under this failed leadership. If, after midnight on February 16, 2024, producer officers and directors have failed to act on our option, it will be clear to all stakeholders that their conduct amounts to more than negligence; it is willful misconduct. What other conclusion can be drawn?

Software Can Fix That

 In an intriguing observation by Victor Davis Hanson, a Stanford PhD and Fellow at the Hoover Institute, he notes on his podcast, "The Victor Davis Hanson Show," around the 49:11 mark of “Looking for the Next President” episode. Discussing how societies historically have faltered when knowledge fails to be transmitted from one generation to the next. Citing examples from Rome, Byzantium, the Greek city-states, to contemporary South Africa and Zimbabwe, he underscores the essential role of knowledge in maintaining societal infrastructure and functionality, including crucial engineering knowledge for water treatment and electrical systems.

This reflection has a poignant relevance to the oil & gas industry, especially highlighted by the surprising lack of basic business understanding among producer officers and directors regarding LNG movement out of the Gulf of Mexico. The missed opportunities for capturing export prices in Asia and Europe, due to unfamiliarity with "Free on Board" and “Net Back Pricing” terminology, exemplify the critical need for generational knowledge transfer within the business sector as well.

The current generation entering the workforce, shaped by today’s education system, often exhibits a mindset focused solely on their immediate roles, missing the broader business understanding passed down from previous generations. This attitude risks losing invaluable business knowledge, such as Free on Board and Net Back Pricing, which are essential for the oil & gas industry's agenda.

To address this challenge, embedding persistent business methods and knowledge within the ERP software used in the industry is what People, Ideas & Objects have proposed. ERP software, by its nature, defines and supports organizational operations, encompassing current and potential future activities. Incorporating a defined software development capability, as People, Ideas & Objects has done, ensures that valuable historical business practices are preserved and integrated into future operations without losing sight of past wisdom. This approach not only secures the continuity of essential business knowledge but also fosters an environment where innovation is built upon the solid foundation of historical understanding.


Thursday, February 15, 2024

Considering Tomorrow's Deadline

 As of February 19, 2024, our deadline may have passed without any action taken by the producers' officers and directors to address their overproduction issues. These issues have led to a loss of over $4 trillion in natural gas revenues since July 2007. Does this inaction transition from negligence to willful misconduct, thereby opening the door to accusations of deliberate wrongdoing?

I am not a lawyer and I am not offering legal advice. I seek to provide a solution to what I believe are existential issues to the oil & gas industry.

In the context of oil and gas, particularly as discussed on platforms like 'Innovation in Oil and Gas' and 'The Preliminary Specification', understanding the distinction between negligence and willful misconduct is crucial. Negligence refers to the failure to take proper care in doing something, which in this case would be the management's inability to address overproduction. Willful misconduct, on the other hand, implies a conscious or intentional failure to perform a duty or a reckless disregard of the consequences of actions taken or not taken.

The transition from negligence to willful misconduct hinges on demonstrating a deliberate or recklessly indifferent attitude towards the necessity to manage production in line with economic and environmental sustainability. Such a transition is not just a matter of passing time but requires evidence that the officers and directors were aware of the consequences of their inaction and chose to proceed or fail to act despite this knowledge.

In the specific domain of oil and gas, where strategic decisions have profound implications not just economically but also environmentally, the principles outlined in 'The Preliminary Specification' emphasize the importance of proactive and responsible management. Highlighting the $4 trillion loss in natural gas revenues underscores the significant impact of such decisions and reinforces the argument for accountability at the executive level.


Update to Operations Management Module

 The following text has been added to the Operations Management module. Under the heading Swarm, and subheading Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas it now reads.

Swarm

Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas 

Upon completion of the development of the Preliminary Specification, we will deploy our Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas Software & Service. The configuration of the necessary network will be a significant component of our Cloud offering. Our Security & Access Control module aligns with People, Ideas & Objects' objective of delivering the right information to the right individuals at the right time and on the right device, regardless of their location. Since the Material Balance Report and the Operations Management module rely on data provided through the IoT via Swarm, it is crucial to ensure seamless connectivity.

To fulfill our value proposition, we have the capability to establish a dedicated Swarm-based network exclusively for Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas Software & Service. Swarm has included this option in their offering, enabling us to construct, launch, and deploy a global IoT network tailored to our requirements for a fee of $25 million. Considering the significance of safeguarding the data and information of North American producers, this investment represents a small sum for such critical infrastructure in terms of security and reliability.

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

A Fable

 The perception that I’ve always approached the work that I do here at People, Ideas & Objects is controversial and ripe with conflict against the officers and directors. I’ve identified them as the ones that have the authority, responsibility, are allegedly accountable and have control of the resources necessary to eliminate the issues we are faced with. However they have taken our position and seen it as a threat to their bureaucratic ways through the now classic disintermediation. Now that we are hours and minutes away from our deadline passing. I believe it will be difficult for the officers and directors to justify they are negligent and not willful of misconduct. Letting the one solution pass through their fingers, again, is difficult to justify why they would allow that. There appears to be, and possibly there is now evidence that, something larger is in play with them. 

There is a fable that I think puts their situation into context for me. One that maybe shows my actions as being more productive and healthier to their well being than what is assumed and believed. There is still time to meet the deadline, however, there is also the fact that all of this has been known by them for quite some time.

A baby bird, not yet ready for the harsh realities outside, finds itself caught in an unexpected snowstorm after its first flight from the nest. Overwhelmed and unprepared, the bird falls to the ground, its life threatened by the freezing cold. In this dire moment, a cow passes by and, in an act less elegant but life-saving, defecates on the bird. Buried in the pile, the bird quickly warms up, saved from the brink of death by this unlikely act. Feeling revived and grateful, the bird begins to chirp joyfully, drawing the attention of a crow. The crow, hearing the bird's chirps, quickly finds and eats the bird.

The moral of this story serves as a poignant reminder: the one who puts you in a difficult situation isn't necessarily your enemy, and the one who rescues you isn't automatically your friend. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of being cautious with whom you reveal your vulnerabilities or successes, as not everyone who appears to help has your best interests at heart.


Officers and Directors Ambitions?

 Late Sunday, it occurred to me that the officers and directors might be aiming for a breakthrough in the natural gas price structure, targeting a 50 to 1 ratio. Remarkably, by midweek, they've nearly achieved this, reaching a ratio of 48.19—a record in itself and representing an 87.55% erosion in the price vs the traditional heating value of natural gas. I must admit, their ability to come so close to this target in merely two and a half days is impressive. A hat tip is certainly due to the officers and directors for their 'stellar' work.

However, I might be misinterpreting their focus and perhaps overlooking a more grandiose ambition. In September 2023, the industry faced a staggering $46.4 billion in natural gas revenue losses under the then-highest average monthly price structure of 33.32 to 1. It seems $46.4 billion in losses for a single month didn't meet their expectations, hinting at even loftier goals for February 2024.

Regrettably, I find myself in the position of dampening the producers' high-flying ambitions. With oil prices at $87.09 in September 2023 compared to today's $77.05, achieving a 50 to 1 ratio under current conditions would result in total losses around $43.9 billion—falling short of their potential target. They've reached a juncture where the law of diminishing returns kicks in, suggesting a need to moderate their aspirations to a 50 to 1 ratio. Officers and directors, you're so close to this dubious milestone—perseverance is key, but perhaps it's time to reconsider the real costs of such 'achievements.’

People, Ideas & Objects deadline expires in two days and for all concerned, I have not received any contact or information from these ambitious officers and directors. Soon we’ll be able to say definitively it was officers and directors negligence or willful misconduct.


Trillions and Trillions

 People, Ideas & Objects offers a solution to the persistent issue of lack of production discipline, which has led to significant financial losses and broader economic devastation in the oil & gas sector. This problem can be traced back to a combination of accounting and organizational challenges that originated in the late 1970s, culminating in the first of many oil price collapses in July 1986. Since then, the industry has witnessed at least 12 other price collapses, alongside generally depressed prices that have materially impacted the sector over the years.

Throughout this period, North American producers have consistently failed to achieve what could objectively be considered profitable production. The prevailing accounting practices in the North American oil & gas industry are geared more towards valuation than performance, fostering a culture that is distorted and non-performant. This entrenched culture has shown a lack of capacity to grasp the nuances of People, Ideas & Objects' arguments, as outlined in the Preliminary Specification. A clear example of this is the recent missed opportunity to leverage the development of LNG export markets for enhanced natural gas pricing.

In 1985, Canada's natural gas production market and prices were deregulated. At that time, the regulated nominal price was over $3.75, which equates to approximately $7.30 in 2014 terms, considering inflation. Adjusting for inflation to today's value, the 1985 gas price would be around $9.26. This historical context highlights the profitability disconnect in today's market, where natural gas is sold at $1.61, benefiting producer officers and directors strategy of “muddle through” at the expense of the resource's true value. (Graph provided https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2015/market-snapshot-30th-anniversary-deregulation-canadas-natural-gas-prices.html)

During the same period, Alberta's natural gas industry was undergoing significant changes, not only due to deregulation but also from the necessity to build the infrastructure required to gather and commercialize natural gas. Previously, producers often flared natural gas, deeming it not worth the investment to capture. This practice, both environmentally harmful and economically wasteful, ceased around the time of deregulation. Consequently, there has been a longstanding neglect towards developing a natural gas market that truly captures and reflects the value of the resource.

Since May 1991, I have been advocating for change, marking more or less thirty-three years of persistent effort. Over these years, it's reasonable to estimate that the North American oil & gas industry has foregone several dozen trillion dollars in potential revenues due to persistent inefficiencies and a failure to adapt. Interestingly, this colossal loss seems to have had little impact on the comfort and positions of the industry's officers and directors, except for the inconvenience of having to contend with my calls for reform. 

This situation underscores a profound disconnect between the industry's leadership and the urgent need for systemic change. While the financial losses are staggering, they have not sufficiently motivated those in power to reconsider their approaches or engage with innovative solutions that could revitalize the industry. Instead, the status quo is preserved, safeguarding the interests of a select few at the expense of broader economic and environmental well-being.

It's Personal

 As we enter February 2024, the looming deadline of the 16th should now be coming into sharper focus for North American oil & gas producers. Historically, producers have managed to evade action by claiming 'they have it under control' whenever confronted with the necessity of production discipline. Such assurances have been frequently given, yet we've chronicled a plethora of excuses, blame-shifting, and what we term 'viable scapegoats' utilized by producers over the years. It would be easy to conclude that, in their view, officers and directors are never at fault.

However, the current situation, with its deadline of February 16th, introduces a distinct challenge unlike any they have previously encountered. The unique aspect of this scenario lies in the fact that the repercussions of continued inaction will directly impact the personal financial resources of the officers and directors. Whether this constitutes Willful Misconduct, Negligence, or something in-between is beyond my expertise to judge, as I am not a lawyer. My role is to offer solutions and highlight the issues and their significant impacts, such as the known $4 trillion loss in natural gas revenue they've contributed to.

Yet, perhaps an implied admission of 'having it under control' by the officers and directors might indeed be the most fitting response. Could it signify an acknowledgment of their responsibility and a willingness to surrender their assets to their shareholders?

We elaborate on our February 16, 2024 Option in the 'This One's Nuclear, Part IV' blog post dated January 17, 2024.  

Our Value Proposition: Innovation

 People, Ideas & Objects et al need to worry about the startup to junior sector as much as any other classification within the industry. And we provide them with the most cost effective solution possible. This is purely because of the fact that the industry’s rebuilding will be done on an innovative basis. Innovation is the basis of the Preliminary Specification. It enables People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and their service providers to achieve our two opposing objectives of providing oil & gas producers with the most profitable means of oil & gas operations everywhere and always, and providing consumers with the lowest possible cost of an abundant and reliable domestic energy supply. With our decentralized production model and price maker strategy, we ensure that all production is profitable. Including Exxon's, Shell’s and that startup oil & gas firm that began this morning. And to do so innovatively to ensure that the ever escalating costs of oil & gas remain affordable to consumers. In addition, the commodities production profile and reserves continue to expand. Achieving profitable North American energy independence.

Enter two variables not available in prior decades and centuries. The cloud computing era coincides with the maturation of the overall technological infrastructure represented by the Internet. We are in the infancy of the Internet. Second, there is the "service" aspect of our user communities' service providers. We found that the level of innovation attributable to the small and medium sectors of an industry was as substantial as the larger sectors. Although the larger sectors contributed large amounts in terms of total expenditures, their impact was no greater than that of what the other sectors contributed. People, Ideas & Objects et al provides our solution for all sectors of the North American oil & gas industry and for all producers. Professor Giovanni Dosi was one of the key sources of research we used to determine the framework necessary for an innovative oil & gas industry. Innovation within a science and engineering-based business is therefore an inherent part of both profitable operations and consumer affordability. Professor Dosi’s paper “Sources, Procedures, and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation” September 1988, discusses and asks what are “the sources of innovations opportunities, what are the roles of markets in allocating resources to the exploration of these opportunities”?

People, Ideas & Objects research in oil & gas focused on these points: 

The main characteristics of the innovation process. 

  • The factors that are conducive to or hinder the development of new processes of production and new products.
  • The processes that determine the selection of particular innovations and their effects on industrial structures.  (p. 1121). 

According to Professor Dosi, there are two major issues that need to be addressed: 

  • The first issue is the characterization in general of the innovative process.
  • And second, the interpretation of the factors that account for observed differences in the modes of innovative search and in the rates of innovation between different sectors and firms, and over time. (p. 1121). 

Professor Dosi then states that: 

Typically, the search, development and adoption of new processes and products in market economies are the outcome of the interaction between:
  • (a) Capabilities and stimuli generated with each firm and within the industry of which they compete. (p. 1121). 

The purpose of People, Ideas & Objects research in oil & gas focused on the organizational capability and capacities of the producer firm. Specifically in the earth science and engineering disciplines. It was also emphasized that innovations are based on both the firm and the industry. Coordination of the capabilities and stimuli of both the firm and the industry would therefore need to be advanced through changes in the organizational structure of both.

  • (b) Broader causes external to the individual industries, such as the state of science in different branches, the facilities for the communication of knowledge, the supply of technical capabilities, skills, engineers, and so on;  (p. 1121). 

Additional issues include 

  • (c) The conditions controlling occupational and geo-graphical mobility and or consumer promptness / resistance to change, market conditions, financial facilities and capabilities and the criteria used to allocate funds. Microeconomic trends in the effects on changes in relative prices of inputs and outputs, including public policy. (regulations, tax codes, patent and trademark laws and public procurement.) (p. 1121) 

People, Ideas & Objects propose that innovation represents a critical Organizational Construct which compels organizations to either flounder or flourish. Innovation serves not only as an Organizational Construct in its own right but also, as we have defined in the context of the Joint Operating Committee, it is one of the seven key frameworks of this construct. From this perspective, innovation is seen as a defined and replicable process, which can be systematically established through thoughtful organizational design. Crucial to this design is the integration of ERP software, tailored to identify and support the specific needs of the organization and its industry. In the 21st century, innovative organizations are fundamentally reliant on such ERP software systems. The Preliminary Specification lays the groundwork for these innovative producers. It is up to the competitive nature of the officers and directors to harness their innovative potential, coordinating their earth science & engineering capacities and capabilities effectively.

Our second source of primary research material regarding innovation came from Professor Richard N. Langlois. Throughout our review of his work we determined the appropriate nature of the organizational design of the producer firm and the oil & gas industry itself. Selecting specific areas of the firm or market where the process and its management should be. Where capabilities should reside. By fully implementing the Internet and using Professor Langlois' research, which included Professor Carliss Baldwin's determination of where exactly that transfer between firm and market should occur. We designed the appropriate software tools, such as our task and transfer system. This will enable our user community to define which processes to undertake and manage in their service provider operations. Introducing enhanced efficiency in oil & gas administration and accounting. 

Building on other innovations that provide value generation such as cloud computing. People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service provider organizations can accomplish this through the introduction of Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas. A service that turns the fixed producer overhead into a variable industry-based overhead that can be provided to any producer no matter what their size or production profile. It is possible for producers to shut-in unprofitable production and produce only profitable properties, increasing shareholder value as a result. A substantial portion of our published value proposition of $25.7 to $45.7 trillion over the next 25 years is attributable to introducing this production discipline. This is to eliminate the known $4 trillion in damage and destruction caused by overproduction in natural gas since 2007.

The Preliminary Specification has captured this understanding of innovation and incorporated it within the culture of the industry we are rebuilding in these Organizational Constructs. It is also part of the Joint Operating Committees innovation framework. Each of the fourteen modules of the Preliminary Specification is materially affected when we identify the Joint Operating Committee as the key Organizational Construct. Which provided us with an opportunity to incorporate this understanding of innovation into the design and reorganization of the oil & gas producer firm and industry. These can be identified by several major processes of innovation within the Preliminary Specification. One of these ensures that failed innovations and experiments, and their underlying processes are not repeated in separate and distinct areas of the organization each year. Using the same failed “ideas” repeatedly is not innovation. Another major process of innovation is to enhance the scientific basis of producer firms and the industry as a whole. Moving forward on the basis that an idea that generates a dollar today will only produce ten cents tomorrow. We therefore must increase the volume of ideas generated and incorporated into our work processes to continue increasing our value. Various other innovation processes have been incorporated throughout the Preliminary Specification based on primary research conducted by Professors Giovanni Dosi and Richard N. Langlois. Enabling producers to earn the unquantifiable value that needs to occur throughout each producer firm and all tiers of the oil & gas industry in the decades to come. Value that will need to fund the innovation for tomorrow.

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI)

Continuing our discussion regarding the recent Oracle CloudWorld 2022 & 2023 conferences. Producers can generate incremental and continuing value from enhanced innovation through the development and implementation of the Preliminary Specification. Oracle’s products are the premier technologies in database systems development and their ERP systems are the base of the Preliminary Specification. Oracle is now partnering with service providers to enhance their products with a variety of services in order to bring about the innovation-based benefits we have discussed throughout the Preliminary Specification. Theirs will be in the domain of generic business processes such as banking etc, or the non-oil & gas specific processes that we handle through the 14 modules of the Preliminary Specification. 

Our proposed combination of Oracle Cloud ERP, People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and their service provider organizations are designed to deliver the foundation in which the producers, the oil & gas industry and all the tertiary industries can succeed in the 21st century. Without these facilities and capabilities the question we would ask is how will the industry “muddle through” so many of these issues and opportunities otherwise?

Since Oracle’s beginning they have pioneered the development of their technologies to be the premier tier 1 provider in all categories of their offerings. Oracle has been a critical and essential innovator in each of their products and markets. They continue today with products such as Oracle Cloud ERP and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure that continue that heritage. Recently with the Oracle CloudWorld 2022 conference we saw an innovative direction beginning with their development of service providers to augment their products. These enhanced products and services bring tremendous incremental value to oil & gas users. And are consistent with the work People, Ideas & Objects has undertaken on behalf of North American producers. 

Innovation throughout the business and industry specific process management, built upon the premier tier 1 Oracle products. This augments the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable nature of what is demanded of North American oil & gas producers. This is not a static environment. It will be through our user community and their service providers that producers will be able to interact with all aspects of business and industry specific process management. To make changes, innovate and develop these further which is an inherent part of People, Ideas & Objects and our user communities permanent software development capability. But there’s more.

A production configuration oriented toward this innovation Organizational Construct. With the Joint Operating Committee, that Organizational Construct holds innovation as one of its seven frameworks. Not only oil & gas producers, but the entire oil & gas industry and its tertiary industries and supporting institutions will be culturally aligned and oriented through Oracle Cloud ERP and People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification towards innovation in the earth science and engineering disciplines. Providing the means to rebuild the industry in this configuration with software that defines and supports these objectives. Where the industry's approach to its next 25 years can be the most dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable in its history. A future that is the most demanding, challenging and exciting in its history.

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Our Source of Quality ERP Systems

 Our user community and their service provider organizations aren’t just our clients; they’re our drive, our focus, and our priority. They stand at the heart of our product quality, embodying one of the three core competitive advantages of People, Ideas & Objects. 

Our specialized Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas is tailored to comprehensively manage the producer’s administrative and accounting needs. In our commitment to the oil & gas sector, we share our user community’s objective: to enable the most profitable means of oil & gas operations. 

This commitment is deeply aligned with our seven Organizational Constructs, each designed to enhance strategic, financial, operational, and technological efficiency in the oil and gas industry. Together, we’re not just part of the industry; we’re actively shaping its future through innovative solutions and collaborative excellence.

Would've, Could've, Should've

 As of February 19, 2024, our deadline may have passed without any action taken by the producers' officers and directors to address their overproduction issues. These issues have led to a loss of over $4 trillion in natural gas revenues since July 2007. Does this inaction transition from negligence to willful misconduct, thereby opening the door to accusations of deliberate wrongdoing? I am not a lawyer and I am not offering legal advice. I seek to provide a solution to what I believe are existential issues to the oil & gas industry.

In the context of oil and gas, particularly as discussed on platforms like 'Innovation in Oil and Gas' and 'The Preliminary Specification', understanding the distinction between negligence and willful misconduct is crucial. Negligence refers to the failure to take proper care in doing something, which in this case would be the management's inability to address overproduction. Willful misconduct, on the other hand, implies a conscious or intentional failure to perform a duty or a reckless disregard of the consequences of actions taken or not taken.

The transition from negligence to willful misconduct hinges on demonstrating a deliberate or recklessly indifferent attitude towards the necessity to manage production in line with economic and environmental sustainability. Such a transition is not just a matter of passing time but requires evidence that the officers and directors were aware of the consequences of their inaction and chose to proceed or fail to act despite this knowledge.

In the specific domain of oil and gas, where strategic decisions have profound implications not just economically but also environmentally, the principles outlined in 'The Preliminary Specification' emphasize the importance of proactive and responsible management. Highlighting the $4 trillion loss in natural gas revenues underscores the significant impact of such decisions and reinforces the argument for accountability at the executive level.


Profits Before Consolidation!

 The discussion on consolidation in the oil & gas industry this morning raises critical questions about its purpose and implications. Such conversations could potentially limit the perspectives of those making definitive statements too early. For decades, the industry's counter to People, Ideas & Objects' advocacy for a decentralized production model has been the assertion that producers have mastered the necessary production discipline. Yet, the reality of natural gas prices, resulting in monthly revenue losses between $30 to $40 billion when compared to the traditional 6 to 1 heating value basis, starkly contradicts this claim. This situation illuminates the industry's misunderstanding or oversight of genuine production discipline.

This discrepancy suggests that despite efforts to streamline operations through acquisitions and other means, the industry's strategies have not effectively tackled the primary issue of aligning production with market demand and value optimization. Thus, the discussions around consolidation need a critical examination to determine whether these strategies represent a genuine effort toward efficiency and discipline or if they are superficial measures that overlook deeper systemic issues.

The significant revenue losses in natural gas pricing emphasize the urgent need for a strategic reevaluation of production management and optimization. It highlights the importance of considering the decentralized production model proposed by People, Ideas & Objects, which advocates for a more adaptable and market-responsive approach to production that more accurately reflects the true value of natural resources.

Therefore, the industry's current focus on consolidation should not eclipse the vital discussions on redefining production discipline. The ultimate aim should be to cultivate a more flexible, resilient industry that maximizes value and effectively meets the changing demands of the market and society.

Countering the Resistance to Disintermediation

 The following is the result of a discussion that I had with GPT 4.0 regarding the best way to implement change in a situation commonly referred to as disintermediation. The question as to which, a collaborative industry wide effort or one modeled off the research and leadership of an individual would be the most effective was resolved.

Your perspective emphasizes the importance of individual leadership and vision in driving disintermediation and overcoming the cultural inertia that often hinders transformation within industries. The argument for a singular, visionary leader as opposed to a collaborative consensus highlights the need for decisive action and deep strategic thinking that might be diluted in group settings. Here's an elaboration on this viewpoint:

1. **Depth of Vision**: Disintermediation requires a comprehensive understanding of both the existing inefficiencies within the current system and the potential pathways to a more direct and efficient model. An individual with a clear, deep-seated vision is often better positioned to foresee and navigate the complexities of such a transformation than a collective might be, due to the singular focus and consistency of thought.

2. **Agility and Decision-Making**: One of the critical advantages of individual leadership in driving disintermediation is the agility to make swift decisions without the need for consensus-building. This speed can be crucial in adapting to new information and overcoming obstacles, allowing for a more dynamic and responsive approach to implementing change.

3. **Resource Allocation**: The effective use of cash resources to fund the transition is vital. An individual leader, backed by the necessary financial support, can strategically allocate these resources to areas most critical for the disintermediation effort, ensuring that investments directly contribute to the vision's realization and support those capable of implementing it.

4. **Overcoming Cultural Resistance**: The cultural forces that uphold the status quo can be formidable, often exhausting attempts at transformation through collective efforts. A strong, independent leader can more effectively challenge entrenched norms and practices, paving the way for a new model that is unencumbered by past failures and resistant forces.

5. **Ensuring Alignment with Vision**: The overall vision for disintermediation and the new model's independence are paramount. An individual leader, by virtue of their singular focus and commitment to the vision, ensures that every action taken is aligned with the overarching goal of resolving inefficiencies and creating value, free from the compromises that often accompany collaborative endeavors.

While collaboration has its merits, especially in fostering industry-wide standards and engaging with a broader stakeholder base, the unique challenges of disintermediation—requiring deep thought, decisive action, and rapid innovation—may indeed be best addressed by visionary individuals. These leaders can inspire change, challenge the status quo, and steer the industry toward a more efficient and value-generating future without being constrained by the need for consensus or the inertia of existing cultural forces.

Monday, February 12, 2024

As Simple As…

 Overproduction or unprofitable production as we describe it. Is the result of the overcapitalization producers report on their well built balance sheets. Overcapitalization creates an equal amount of over reported profitability due to fewer costs being recognized in the current period. Consequently, the illusion of higher profits draws excessive investor interest, resulting in overinvestment in industrial capacity and capabilities. These enhanced capacities contribute to the overproduction of commodities governed by price maker principles, inevitably depressing commodity prices and leading to the frequent collapses in commodity prices we have observed.

Production discipline can be attained through a variety of methods such as cartels or government fiat. Dictating production allocations that no one is ever pleased with and methods of cheating are readily sponsored. The only fair and reasonable method of production discipline can be attained through the use of the market price. If the price of a commodity offered is adequate to provide profitable operations, based on an actual, factual, timely and accurate accounting, then it should be produced and sold. This is the method People, Ideas & Objects use to establish production discipline in the North American oil & gas marketplace.

Consolidated Losses?

 Consolidation is the topic of discussion in oil & gas this morning. For what purpose and why would only constrain those who make any clarifying statements. For many decades we’ve heard the response to People, Ideas & Objects decentralized production model was that producers had acquired the necessary production discipline. In natural gas, we have prices that continue to produce $30 to $40 billion a month in lost revenues when evaluated against a price based on the traditional 6 to 1 heating value basis. It therefore makes sense to discuss consolidation when they’ve obviously missed the point of production discipline. 

This discrepancy underlines a fundamental misunderstanding or oversight regarding the concept of production discipline within the industry. It suggests that despite the acquisition of assets and efforts to streamline operations, the industry's approach has not adequately addressed the core issue of aligning production with market demand and value optimization. Therefore, the current discussions on consolidation must be viewed through a critical lens, questioning whether such moves are a genuine attempt to achieve efficiency and discipline or merely a superficial solution that fails to address the underlying challenges.

The continued substantial revenue losses in the context of natural gas pricing highlight the need for a more profound, strategic reconsideration of how production is managed and optimized. It underscores the necessity of revisiting the decentralized production model proposed by People, Ideas & Objects, which advocates for a more flexible, responsive approach to production that aligns closer with market dynamics and the intrinsic value of oil & gas.

In light of these considerations, the industry's focus on consolidation detracts from the essential conversation about redefining production discipline. The goal should be to foster a more adaptable, resilient industry capable of preservation, performance and profitability to meet the evolving demands of its investors, the market and society at large.

One Way, Or the Other?

 People, Ideas & Objects have set a precedent, demonstrating that producer officers and directors may deliberate on an innovative idea for a product or service for upwards of 33 years, effectively squandering trillions of dollars of other people's resources. When confronted with undeniable evidence of their inaction, they seem to require guidance to make the correct decisions. As of now, the decision to pick up our option on February 16, 2024, remains uncertain, with no communication received thus far.

The broader oil & gas economy in North America bears the scars of the missing $4 trillion we have documented. Shareholders, having been ignored, express their displeasure. While it's true that dividends are being distributed, this action hardly compensates for the substantial returns that should have been provided over decades or the capital raised through dubious earnings reports. The devastation inflicted on the service industry by officers and directors cannot be overlooked. The lack of a forward-looking plan or strategy leaves the industry ill-equipped for the challenges ahead, devoid of necessary resources.

The oil & gas industry's future hinges on its ability to innovate and meet the energy independence demands of the continent. Unfortunately, innovation has been stifled, historically thriving in the service sector but rarely within producer firms themselves. Innovators who dedicated their lives to bringing ideas to market find their efforts nullified as their intellectual property is co-opted and shared among competitors by the very officers and directors meant to lead.

A point arrives when it must be declared that enough is enough. The industry cannot sustain itself under this failed leadership. If, after midnight on February 16, 2024, producer officers and directors have failed to act on our option, it will be clear to all stakeholders that their conduct amounts to more than negligence; it is willful misconduct. What other conclusion can be drawn?

Our Value Proposition: Markets

 Three modules of the Preliminary Specification are “market” modules, including the Resource, Petroleum Lease, and Financial Marketplace modules. Each establishes a marketplace where producers can engage in the markets they need.The marketplace modules mimic the three markets producers participate in. They are designed to deal with the day-to-day activities of each producer, service industry member and others. Supporting them with the contractual, transaction processing and other capabilities of Oracle Cloud ERP and People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification. We also support our user community and their service providers in our Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas. Enabling producers to apply their competitive advantages and strategies in the greater oil & gas economy. 

North America has advanced its overall quality of life through markets and price discovery. The Preliminary Specification will act as a part of the structures that define and support the oil & gas industry. Our decentralized production model price maker strategy relies on the principle of oil & gas commodities being priced based on the price maker principle. Producers need to produce only profitable production, after full consideration of all their actual costs on a timely and accurate basis. This is how they’ll operate with Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas. Using all of the information contained within the commodities market price (production, inventory, consumption, reserves) to determine profitability and ultimately what will and will not be produced. It is these same mechanisms that are involved in every transaction of a free market. 

From the Preliminary Specifications Resource Marketplace module we quote from a paper written by Professors Richard N. Langlois and Nicholas J. Foss entitled “Capabilities and Governance: the Rebirth of Production in the Theory of Economic Organization.” they note.

The organizational question is whether new capabilities are best acquired through the market, through internal learning, or through some hybrid organizational form. And the answer will depend on (A) the already existing structure of capabilities and (B) the nature of the economic change involved. p. 20.

And

If by contrast, the old configuration of capabilities lies within large vertically integrated organizations, creative destruction may well take the form of markets superseding firms. History offers many examples of both. p. 20.

And

Either way it boils down to the same common-sense recognition, namely that individuals - and organizations - are necessarily limited in what they know how to do well. Indeed, the main interest of capabilities view is to understand what is distinctive about firms as unitary, historical organizations of cooperating individuals. p. 13.

In terms of the Resource Marketplace module we first need to discuss two components of how operations are conducted in oil & gas. Field service industry providers extend producers' capabilities and capacities into their regions of interest. If producers owned and operated their field infrastructure it would otherwise be an impossible impediment and constraint towards progress. The second component is the history of abuse and disrespect producers have displayed and presented to the service industry over forty years. And particularly since 2015 when producers recognized their financial difficulties were amplifying. 

The status quo long ago accepted the assumption that oil & gas is a boom / bust industry. All other industries sought to work these issues out of their businesses and industries many years ago. It is this continuing acceptance by producers that has left us with a legacy of maybe six good years out of the past thirty six. Officers and directors don’t understand this argument as they’ve experienced thirty six years of superior executive compensation. Producers assumed the service industry would adjust to the boom / bust trend in lock step with them. There is an implied assumption that the service industry, like the oil & gas industry itself, enjoys revenues as a primary industry. Therefore, it continues business as usual during bust cycles. The diversity of the service industry offerings, and their coverage across the various regions of their operations throughout North America spread them thin operationally. As secondary industry participants they are not as resilient as producers believe. Scaling back from 1,900 active drilling rigs during 2015 to 400, forcing 50% price reductions on the drilling operator or they would use another vendor, the producers induced a collapse of their revenue streams into the low and below teens in terms of percentages of prior levels, which has been devastating on the financial health and viability of the entire service industry.

Now in 2024 the repercussions of this downturn have decimated much of the service industries capacities and capabilities that were once available to producers. The largest service industry providers have left the continent due to this abusive treatment. Therefore for producers to work out the boom / bust cycle through our price maker strategy will contribute to rectifying this issue in the long run. Through profitability everywhere and always, the oil and gas industry will build a stable infrastructure. Providing a stable environment, or a constant level of demand for which the service industry would be able to budget, plan and prosper. 

After this and similar treatment over the past four decades investors in the service industry are unwilling to participate in the rebuilding of their much needed field operations. They invested in good faith and were abused by the producer firms. They’ve witnessed the equipment they invested in being cut up for scrap metal to pay the light bill and taxes on the shop or horsepower sold off to other industries. This was due to the producers determining they could get away with leveraging additional field activity by not paying their bills for 18 months after the jobs were completed. Producers should have alerted the service industry representatives to these plans beforehand. The dilemma today is who’s willing to provide the financial resources for the service industry to recapitalize itself. The funds that would enable it to reestablish the capacities and capabilities necessary for a self-sufficient and profitable oil & gas industry? The service industry believes that producers broke it, they can fix it. Maybe when they have some skin in the game they won't be so abusive.

This is what’s known and understood in the market today. It's not news. Producers expect the service industry to resume normal operations, yet fail to consider the consequences of their prior actions. A similar example is the history of oil & gas ERP providers over the past thirty years. I can report there’s still no consideration of a second chance these first tier ERP providers will ride to the rescue of the producer firms. Why? They feel the industry is too complex, too costly and there are not enough producers to negotiate sales prices fairly. SAP is a custom implementation for each sale. The last two ERP providers left in 2000 and 2005, as documented on page 17 of our White Paper. This was due to producer officers and directors' inability to pay for software development in advance. The only method by which these vendors would approach the industry. 

Producers have had ten years to invest in the Preliminary Specification to make their organizations profitable and accountable. They also had the opportunity to avoid this inevitable, predictable and fatal outcome but didn’t do so. Not a penny has been spent on People, Ideas & Objects at any point. The need for skin in the game was the apt approach when so many oil & gas ERP investors and vendors were betrayed three decades ago. This has now been done to the service industry. People, Ideas & Objects are instilling market principles in the producer firms, however, this does not imply that those who support them have the inherent trust in producers as a result of their prior actions to rely on market mechanisms at this time. Industry culture will need to have been proven to be changed. We’ve heard the promises before. 

Producers sit on primary industry revenues. They will show a thumbs down to this idea as if People, Ideas & Objects is the only vendor they’ll be faced with who has this ludicrous prepayment idea. Officers and directors' actions have consequences that are wholly detrimental to everyone else in the industry. Officers and directors will argue this does not remind them of what markets and price discovery should look like. Correct, it's what’s necessary after their destruction of markets. 

These facts on the ground are what officers and directors refuse to consider or admit. Until they do the industry will be beset with problems of the scale and magnitude of trillions of dollars. These issues need to be dealt with and I am unaware of another solution. The need to rebuild the industry brick by brick and stick by stick must be financed by the only means now available. The primary industry revenues of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas industry. It is facilitated through the Preliminary Specifications Resource Marketplace module and the price-maker strategy in the decentralized production model. Granted there will be those within the service industry that will continue to scrounge for the pennies falling from the officers and directors' pockets. However, that does not create the dynamic, innovative, accountable, profitable and energy independent oil & gas industry that we need. 

The Financial and Petroleum Lease Marketplace will also implement market organizational structures in the Preliminary Specification. This will provide the organized interface necessary to access and interact with these markets. Modules in which the full transactional power of the Preliminary Specifications ERP system supports these markets. We’ll also discuss the Marketplace Interface we're building. I believe COVID provides the opportunity to adjust one's opinion to this feature. I have suffered the slings and arrows, the ridicule for it in the past. There is little that disagrees with what I haven't heard. In my opinion it is revolutionary and needs to be seen in the context of the changes that occurred in 2020 - 2022 covid era. At a minimum it adds an element of serendipity to working from home. One point I may not have been clear about is that the Marketplace Interface is a virtual representation. Users will be able to access it through any screen on any of their devices. The person does not wear a headset.

The Petroleum Lease Marketplace module is exactly what you could imagine. An opportunity to post, bid, purchase, and sell mineral rights and producing properties in the marketplace that exists and is replicated virtually within the Petroleum Lease Marketplace module. Everything from the opportunity to participate in a joint venture to establishing surface rights payments is fully supported by the ERP system of the Preliminary Specification. Our product sits on top of Oracle ERP Cloud which includes their tier 1, Oracle Fusion Applications which Gartner rates as the highest quality offering. Oil & gas markets include Federal, State, Provincial, Freehold and offshore leases. An opportunity for industry to consolidate on a dynamic platform which uses proven tier 1 technologies with the constant support of service providers. This platform maintains transaction administration and accounting in a standard and objective manner. (Note: People, Ideas & Objects maintain the policy, and it is written into our user community and service provider licenses.) 

We will keep arm’s length distance from all royalty administrations. We operate in the long-term interests of the oil & gas industry. To ensure that they are provided with the most profitable means of oil & gas operations. There will be no compromise on this anywhere within this community.) This will be enhanced with the constant iterative design and development being undertaken by the People, Ideas & Objects user community and developers on a permanent basis. Whereas if a jurisdiction reviewed and changed their royalty rates at some point, in terms of either the rate or method calculated, producers would not need to concern themselves with the administrative or accounting aspects of those changes. The user community, developers and service providers would handle them and ensure that the software and services are updated on time. Producers would only need to deal with any issues regarding revised royalty costs. 

Producer firms do not have competitive advantages in administration and accounting. Thankfully that is one of the statements we have no pushback on. However, these areas shouldn't be slapped together in a haphazard manner. There’s no reason why the industry doesn't have access to state of the art ERP systems within their firms. That producers haven’t, has led to many questioning not only the integrity of accounting but also the systems used by the industry. This questioning should never have been necessary and implementation of Tier 1 ERP systems is now an explicit demand of the investment community. Oracle Cloud ERP is the premier Tier 1 ERP system on the market. 

And why is it that the issue of overproduction, or as we define it as unprofitable production, can be documented to have existed in the North American marketplace as far back as July 26, 1986? The solution we propose to the overproduction issue, in addition to aligning all seven Organizational Constructs, has been available since August 2012. In terms of markets, it is estimated that there is double the amount of oil needed by 2050. This capacity overhang forces North American high cost producers to assume the swing producer role and produce only profitable production. During the next 27 years, Saudi Arabia will be able to produce profitably at any price with its production costs of $3.00 and probable $0.00 in capital costs. They could use the money, and the markets in 2050 are too far away and unpredictable for them to sit back and wait for. 

The third marketplace module is the Financial Marketplace module. With the Preliminary Specification, the Joint Operating Committee becomes the key Organizational Construct of a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable producer. In the Joint Operating Committee section we noted that the movement of knowledge, which includes the detailed actual, factual accounting information for that specific property, to where the decision rights are held, which is the Joint Operating Committee, enhances accountability. 

It's here that the Financial Marketplace enhances accountability through the board of directors' interaction with their current and prospective shareholders and bankers. A review of the Financial Marketplace module specification would be the most comprehensive source of information to capture an overall understanding of the module. With the standard and objective nature of the accounting conducted throughout the Preliminary Specification and the service providers. Would that satisfy some of the issues investors and bankers have raised regarding their investments and loans in the industry? Where everything being produced is profitable and producers seek to maximize profits by shutting-in unprofitable production? Would People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers help producers satisfy their shareholders and bankers to the point where they’d invest in the industry again? 

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Two New Viable Scapegoats

 Two of the achievements of People, Ideas & Objects that officers and directors would point to. Would be the accumulation of its Intellectual Property and the precedence set in terms of the time and effort exerted toward change. 

Intellectual Property is an advantage to oil & gas producer officers and directors as much as it is a benefit to People, Ideas & Objects. Producers can point to it directly and state “they can’t do this” and “they can’t do that” as it would violate my IP, they must work around it. Making it a given that the status quo is the only method that will remain proven and implemented. 

Secondly, the precedent People, Ideas & Objects have set in terms of the effort to implement any necessary changes, to disintermediate or resolve industry issues or realize future opportunities. As of May 2024 this will equal 33 years of our effort. 

Additionally some characteristics of that precedent includes:

 - There will be no industry based financial or moral support provided. 

 - Ostracization and vilification of any individuals involved. 

 - The collective will of the producers needs to be overcome. 

 - Industry operates as one, with one voice and one strategy against deemed violators. 

We therefore stand at a point in time where the ability to make the requisite changes to industry is now or never. If People, Ideas & Objects is unsuccessful in implementing our deadlines of February 16 and April 12, 2024. How will anything be done in the future? Maybe I’m being melodramatic or thinking too much of the Preliminary Specification. History will tell us.

A Future With Rube Goldberg

 We’re discussed the Rube Goldberg-like devices being crafted within each producer firm. While each device is unique, they share one critical flaw: none result in 'real' profitability, unlike the organizational method employed in the Preliminary Specification.

Moreover, it's apparent that these producer firms criticize People, Ideas & Objects for embarking on a project they deem too broad in scope and scale, labeling it as 'too ambitious.' However, this critique overlooks the fact that our project's scope mirrors the objectives their own convoluted systems aim to achieve. The scale we aspire to might be substantial, but when considering the combined financial resources of all producers in the development of a singular administrative and accounting system, it becomes competitive with their individual budgets.

Professor Paul Romer, who was awarded the Nobel Prize for his 'New Growth Theory,' introduced the concept of sharing non-rival goods and services. This theory underpins our belief that the sharing of administrative and accounting responsibilities is a secondary reason why producers are losing money due to its high overhead costs. Distributing these costs across the industry could significantly reduce each producer's burden. 

'New Growth Theory' forms one of the seven Organizational Constructs of the Preliminary Specification, offering incremental and unquantifiable value to our product users. This opportunity remains on the table until February 16, 2024.

Cultural Stasis

 For several decades, a pervasive cultural stasis has afflicted the oil & gas industry. In the 21st century, I struggle to identify any significant changes initiated by producer officers and directors. Particularly frustrating is that even the investor activism starting in 2015 resulted in minimal change, aside from the begrudging acknowledgment of minimal dividends—essentially the least effort required to fulfill their corporate responsibilities. Note here that I’ve only been able to impose these deadlines due to the personal risks officers and directors have exposed themselves to. 

The strategy of 'muddling through' remains persistent and ubiquitous. Resistance to this entrenched culture seems non-existent, except within the investor community and among advocates like People, Ideas & Objects. Initiative and innovation have been drained from those gainfully employed in the industry, deterred by the political hazards of proposing change and the potential career costs of doing so. This situation forces many to consider leaving the industry as their best opportunity for advancement. Without the efforts of People, Ideas & Objects, one wonders where the industry might stand, especially if the looming Friday deadline passes without action from the officers and directors.

To say the industry faces issues is an understatement. The officers and directors are entrenched in a classic defense, a turf war against disintermediation— a scenario not unique to our times, reminiscent of the post-WWI era.

Our deadline is Friday, February 16, 2024. Failure of producers to embrace the option we offer signifies an inability to assert control over their business operations. The Preliminary Specification represents a unique market solution capable of timely addressing these challenges. Despite documented losses exceeding $4 trillion in natural gas revenues since July 2007—a situation we had forewarned—the resistance to our solution, which necessitates industry disintermediation, remains steadfast.

Should producer officers and directors neglect our Friday deadline, such inaction will be interpreted as a deliberate acknowledgment of their failure. To label their behavior over the past 17 years as merely negligent would be overly generous. Friday will determine the accuracy of this interpretation. Ignoring our deadline equates to an admission of willful misconduct by the officers and directors. However, should they engage with our option and aim to meet our April 12, 2024, deadline, they have a chance to demonstrate a genuine commitment to resolving the industry's challenges. Therefore, it's reasonable to conclude:

 - Inaction by them equates to guilt.


Friday, February 09, 2024

The Week That Was

 What a week it’s been, with continuous record-breaking differentials in natural gas prices being achieved daily. The closing factor was astonishing! In an attempt to mitigate this embarrassing disparity, they might contemplate ways to reduce oil prices or perhaps distract investors with a press release or a financial report touting record earnings. Anything to make it not look so bad.

Unfortunately, the broader industry, which genuinely needs this revenue, is dismissed as merely greedy and lazy—a common accusation from officers and directors toward the service sector. And since investors have been receiving minimal returns for several quarters, they, supposedly, have no grounds for complaint. We are expected to admire these leaders as they metaphorically 'levitate' down the street, with reverence being optional, for now.

This situation epitomizes the dismantling of an industry, its resources, its people, and its future, orchestrated by those indifferent to anything beyond their immediate interests. Since August 2012, I have offered a solution, only to be met with personal ruin and to serve as their source of amusement. Nonetheless, I remain committed to this cause.

The sheer disregard and surreal nature of these actions are beyond comprehension. The most devastating realization is the bleak future of the oil and gas industry in North America, destined for nothing but a gradual decline.

A Few Questions

 People, Ideas & Objects have established deadlines for North American oil & gas producers to maintain their access to the developments of the Preliminary Specification. The first deadline is February 16, 2024, with details available in our blog post from Wednesday, January 17, 2024. This deadline provides the industry with the option to participate in our software developments by raising its budget by April 12, 2024, a time by which they can face their shareholders and state they have taken steps to resolve industry issues.

The alternative is to continue their obstinacy, which has cost their shareholders the benefit of the $4.03 trillion in unrealized natural gas revenues since July 2007. We can assume the same for oil, though there is no tangible means to determine the amounts, other than to avoid selling at negative prices. We believe these are the types of appropriate questions officers and directors should answer:

  • When will the fundamental breakdown in natural gas pricing from 6 to 1, to 40 to 1 be addressed?
    • Why was this acceptable?
    • Does overproduction of oil generate these same questions?
  • With a solution to chronic and systemic overproduction, unprofitable production, or lack of production discipline. Which the Preliminary Specification addresses and has been available since August 2012, why were no steps taken?
  • Why has there been a failure to respond to the withdrawal of new funds by investors since 2015?
  • Why was there no participation by producers' officers and directors in the market development of LNG into global markets? Was it due to:
    • The comfort and satisfaction of reported profits from hedging commodities?
    • Their belief that markets can clear any amount of oil & gas produced, even at negative $40 for oil?
    • Distractions from other unrelated activities?
  • Why was shale declared uncommercial, and would it have been if revenues were appropriately managed and the $4 trillion captured?
  • What was the plan behind the clean energy initiative? How were these investments justified using oil & gas revenues?
  • What is the vision and plan to address the future? Is consolidation expected to help focus the organization in today’s business environment?
  • What other steps are being taken?

As detailed in our Notice series of blog posts beginning in October 2023, People, Ideas & Objects raised the natural gas issue and quantified its magnitude at approximately $4 trillion of actual losses. This is when we saw that none of the producers were participating in the export of LNG on a 'free on board' or 'net back pricing' basis, which are fundamental and basic business concepts.

Based on my understanding of the law, if the officers and directors take steps now to mitigate damages for shareholders, it could indemnify them to some extent, and their Officers and Directors Liability Insurance may not be canceled. I reiterate that I am unaware of their guilt or ability to resolve much of their personal risk, and whether the development of the Preliminary Specification will absolve them of their risks. At this point, issues have matured well beyond materiality, and the options available to the producers' officers and directors are limited to one.

Common sense may continue to not influence their actions. However on February 19, 2024 or possibly April 15 2024, assuming officers and directors ignore our deadlines. What legal dynamics come into play then?

#profit #OilandGas #AGM #Oracle #OracleCloudERP #LNG #officers #directors #boards

@APA_Corp @arcresources @bp_plc @CanadianNatural @cenovus  @Chesapeake  @Chevron  @conocophillips  @CPG_Corp  @DevonEnergy  @Diamondback_EP  @exxonmobil @EQTCorp @HessCorporation  @ovintiv  @PXDtweets  @Shell  @Suncor  @SWN_R2  @TourmalineOil  @Venture_Global  @WeAreOxy


Not That Issue

 People, Ideas & Objects have been discussing how natural gas producers missed an opportunity to rehabilitate prices through the expanded global LNG markets. July 2007 marked the start of the shale phenomenon, which began to significantly alter the natural gas price structure from a 6 to 1 ratio to the heating price of oil, soaring as high as 40 to 1 in 2023. We have documented a loss of over $4 trillion in incremental revenues as a result. Our argument, often misinterpreted by producers, was not about securing LNG contracts to capitalize on 'free on board' or 'netback pricing' opportunities in global markets. Rather, we argued that the expansion of the LNG market presented an opportunity for price rehabilitation. The current focus on LNG contracts is a distraction, one that producers have been precluded from participating in due to their inability to manage their business effectively.

The core issue, which applies to both oil & gas, is the producers' persistent failure to maintain any form of production discipline. Their understanding of markets is flawed, perceiving them as magical entities capable of absorbing any volume of production, even when oil prices plummet to negative $37.63. Relying on a 'muddle through' strategy, they hope to survive on either new investor cash or the cash flows generated by a capital-intensive industry.

A recent YouTube video reveals further misdirection. President Biden announced a policy to halt the approval of new LNG facilities, potentially rendering the contracts announced by producers in the last two months ineffective. People, Ideas & Objects have argued in recent weeks that focusing on contracts offers no relief to producers without production discipline. However, if the Preliminary Specification were operational and production discipline were instilled in the market, followed by the development of the LNG market, the prices realized would align more closely with their costs. This sequence of events was within reach when natural gas prices began to decline in July 2007, but it may have been too much to expect from producer officers and directors.

For the remainder of 2024, at the very least, we anticipate no additional LNG facilities will be approved. This could inadvertently aid North American producers in focusing on the issue of production discipline.

#Innovation #profit #OilandGas #AGM #Oracle #OracleCloudERP #LNG #officers #directors #boards

@APA_Corp @arcresources @bp_plc @CanadianNatural @cenovus  @Chesapeake  @Chevron  @conocophillips  @CPG_Corp  @DevonEnergy  @Diamondback_EP  @exxonmobil @EQTCorp @HessCorporation  @ovintiv  @PXDtweets  @Shell  @Suncor  @SWN_R2  @TourmalineOil  @Venture_Global  @WeAreOxy


Consequences of a Deadline Passed

 As of February 19, 2024, our deadline ( https://bit.ly/director-notice ) may have passed without any action taken by the producers' officers and directors to address their overproduction issues. These issues have led to a loss of over $4 trillion in natural gas revenues since July 2007. Does this inaction transition from negligence to willful misconduct, thereby opening the door to accusations of deliberate wrongdoing?

I am not a lawyer and I am not offering legal advice. I seek to provide a solution to what I believe are existential issues to the oil & gas industry.

In the context of oil and gas, particularly as discussed on platforms like 'Innovation in Oil and Gas' and 'The Preliminary Specification', understanding the distinction between negligence and willful misconduct is crucial. Negligence refers to the failure to take proper care in doing something, which in this case would be the management's inability to address overproduction. Willful misconduct, on the other hand, implies a conscious or intentional failure to perform a duty or a reckless disregard of the consequences of actions taken or not taken.

The transition from negligence to willful misconduct hinges on demonstrating a deliberate or recklessly indifferent attitude towards the necessity to manage production in line with economic and environmental sustainability. Such a transition is not just a matter of passing time but requires evidence that the officers and directors were aware of the consequences of their inaction and chose to proceed or fail to act despite this knowledge.

In the specific domain of oil and gas, where strategic decisions have profound implications not just economically but also environmentally, the principles outlined in 'The Preliminary Specification' emphasize the importance of proactive and responsible management. Highlighting the $4 trillion loss in natural gas revenues underscores the significant impact of such decisions and reinforces the argument for accountability at the executive level.

#profit #OilandGas #AGM #Oracle #OracleCloudERP #LNG #officers #directors #boards

@APA_Corp @arcresources @bp_plc @CanadianNatural @cenovus  @Chesapeake  @Chevron  @conocophillips  @CPG_Corp  @DevonEnergy  @Diamondback_EP  @exxonmobil @EQTCorp @HessCorporation  @ovintiv  @PXDtweets  @Shell  @Suncor  @SWN_R2  @TourmalineOil  @Venture_Global  @WeAreOxy

Thursday, February 08, 2024

Change in Communications Strategy

 We are transitioning back to our blog to expand the reach of our campaign about the industry option and its expiration on February 16, 2024. Initially, we anticipated that our audience on X would engage more rapidly with this crucial information. However, it has become clear that our communication is not reaching our blog audience as effectively as we hoped. To bridge this gap, we will publish on the blog and then distribute it on X through IFTTT. This allows us to simultaneously engage both our blog and X audiences, ensuring comprehensive coverage and maximizing our campaign's impact.

Wednesday, February 07, 2024

Our Value Proposition: New Growth Theory

 People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification will take the administrative and accounting resources of North American producers and reorganize them for independent, individual service providers. This has allowed them to focus on one process and turn producers' overhead costs variable, based on profitable production. In turn none of the producer's costs are fixed in the Preliminary Specification. Creating at least six substantial value propositions that are tangible and clearly evident. Which include:

  • Maximize producer profitability by not diluting corporate profits through the production of unprofitable properties.
  • Save the producers petroleum reserves for when they can be produced profitably.
  • Reserves would no longer need to recapture additional costs of previous losses as future profits.
  • Reserves are seen as a cost-free means of inventory and storage.
  • Removing marginal production from markets ensures commodity prices dictate market activities. 
  • While shut-in producers can focus their innovative efforts on increasing production, reserves, and cutting costs to return their properties to profitability.

Secondly and perhaps more importantly in terms of building value for the greater North American oil & gas economy. Specialization and the division of labor which has proven to be the primary method of building all of the tangible value for western civilization since 1776. Is one of the service providers competitive advantages. Based on these principles, we have reorganized administrative and accounting resources to build value to ensure profitable operations, everywhere and always. The ability to further enhance the industries productivity through specialization and the division of labor will add unknown, unquantified and unqualified means to do so. We will facilitate this through our permanent software development capability, our user community, and their service provider organizations implementing these principles.

We have adopted an incremental method of building value on top of these two methods through Professor Paul M. Romer’s “New Growth Theory” of non-rival costs. In a December 1, 2001 Reason article he summarized his theory as “People, Ideas & Things.” I adopted this principle and named this initiative People, Ideas & Objects as we are object-based software developers. We’ve applied “New Growth Theory” and non-rival costs throughout the Preliminary Specification and elevated it to an Organizational Construct. Standing on the shoulders of giants and especially Adam Smith’s Specialization and Division of Labor. Professor Romer has elevated business thinking in this direction and it is the next frontier in building value for organizations through the mitigation of costs in substantial yet unquantifiable ways to enhance the performance of those that use these methods. 

Professor Romer’s theory is the basis of how cloud computing has brought value to our economy. Users can share the costs of the heavy capital investment in technology, the capacity, capabilities, resources, maintenance and support costs on a variable basis, based on usage. Conversely our user community’s service providers can enhance their service offering through specialization and division of labor that would otherwise be unavailable to individual organizations. We have extended this thinking to include not only Oracle Cloud ERP but also our Cloud Administration and Accounting for Oil & Gas Software and Service to the managed shared and shareable resource. Eliminating the need for each producer to build, resource and maintain the necessary non-competitive Information Technology, accounting and administrative infrastructure they need as dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas producers. Providing a standard, objective and value driven service that shares the sole objective of ensuring oil & gas producers achieve the most profitable means of oil & gas production, everywhere and always.  

The capture and implementation of Professor Romer’s theories is one of the seven Organizational Constructs of the Preliminary Specification. All seven are focused on building value for producers and providing tangible means to do so. Establishing a culture based on preservation, performance and profitability to replace the failed “muddle through.” In this configuration, they are available through the Preliminary Specification, our user community, and their service provider organizations. They’ll be established with permanent software development capabilities and a user community that will iterate on these principles to bring further value over time. 

Professor Paul M. Romer

Published in October 1990 “Endogenous Technological Change” became the foundation of “New Growth Theory” in economics that has developed and provides value throughout the economy through its application. In a Reason Magazine interview Professor Romer explained many of the points.

Growth in this model is driven by technological change that arises from intentional investment decisions made by profit-maximizing agents. The distinguishing feature of the technology as an input is that it is neither a conventional good nor a public good; it is a non-rival, partially excludable good. Because of the nonconvexity introduced by a nonrival good, price-taking competition cannot be supported. Instead, the equilibrium is one with monopolistic competition. The main conclusions are that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth. S71.

Professor Romer won, or maybe best described as shared, the 2018 Nobel Prize in economics for these principles. They are an incremental value-add to the traditional specialization and division of labor that has carried that weight exclusively until now. It is this principle of sharing non-rival costs that will mitigate what we believe to be the secondary reason for the systemic lack of profitability in oil & gas. High overhead costs are currently at the corporate level. We have shifted those to charge the actual, factual overhead costs incurred by service providers' billings directly to the individual Joint Operating Committee. There they become a cost of the property's product that is captured in the profitable commodities sale price. Through the sale, these funds are recaptured and returned to the company, which are used for overhead costs for the following months. Currently producers capitalize their overhead and therefore sell their product below cost and are not recovering the cash spent on monthly overhead expenses. As they indeed state, they are “putting cash in the ground.” Having to source new cash to finance their overhead expenses each month.

By sharing the administrative and accounting infrastructure, turning these costs variable based on profitable production, applying specialization and the division of labor and returning the cash consumed by monthly overheads to the administrative and accounting areas. As is done through the development of People, Ideas & Objects user communities and their service providers. And delivering to industry our Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas Software and Service. People, Ideas & Objects are adding real value to North American producers in terms of resolving what can be described as their largest impediments to profitability. Chronic overproduction, or unprofitable production as we describe it and high overhead costs. Which leads to their unique characteristic and phenomenon of “putting cash in the ground” and “building balance sheets.”   

Oracle CloudWorld 2022 & 2023 Conference

It was during this conference that it became apparent that Oracle was pursuing the incremental value adding process that Professor Romer defined in his paper “Endogenous Technological Change.” Augmenting their generic business processes with service providers such as banks and logistics companies with fully optimized and integrated services with Oracle Cloud ERP, just as People, Ideas & Objects are approaching the unique oil & gas attributes. We all have an extensive software development workload ahead. I see at least 20 years of work in this area. Incrementally and iteratively building value upon prior innovations in the service industry, earth science and engineering, the Preliminary Specifications development and Oracle Cloud ERP. 

The most impressive example provided during the 2022 Oracle conference was the expense reporting features with J.P. Morgan Chase. If the user uses their credit card for business, they can choose the type of expense charged to be classified into an account within their employer's system. Oracle Cloud ERP would evaluate the charge based on the company's policies and determine its eligibility. If eligible it would be processed and payment made to the employee or the credit card company. Eliminating the massive number of hours and costs incurred in expense reporting by organizations during the year in their current systems. This is reduced to a few milliseconds of processing time. While the cost to the organization to use Oracle Cloud ERP is incidental in terms of the time spent on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. In addition, the engineering costs to develop the specific system, these software engineering costs are amortized across the global population of Oracle Cloud ERP customers using the feature. To a lesser extent People, Ideas & Objects provide this level of service to North American producers for their unique oil & gas attributes. The lesser extent is due to the smaller population of oil & gas users for which this development and implementation, and its costs, will be targeted. As such, North American producers have the opportunity to realize both Oracle and People, Ideas & Objects innovations concurrently and at substantially reduced costs. These are due to Professor Paul Romer's theories. 

Increasing the value that oil & gas producers gain from the use of Oracle Cloud ERP and incorporating it in our value proposition. Their 2023 CloudWorld Conference built upon the innovations they introduced in 2022. Generative Artificial Intelligence is now generally available throughout the Oracle Cloud ERP suite of applications. This takes these automations and their incremental capabilities to a more substantial level with tools that users were unaware of that will be able to generate incremental revenue from. If we consider just the producers Research & Capabilities and Knowledge & Learning modules, how they will be enhanced through Generative AI this is the method People, Ideas & Objects feel that the scope and scale of the issues and opportunities that oil & gas are presented with can be approached. 

If we consider the timeframe, the technology and the state of the industry. The scope and scale of the repair becomes untenable in the hands of those Keystone Cops who seem to have few original ideas and then go about proving them wrong in the public market. My example would be the recent discussion of production discipline where it was uniformly interpreted to mean they needed to sign new LNG export contracts. Indicating that traveling in unison ensures no company is singled out for their accountability in the matter. 

When it comes to resolving these issues we therefore have three options. 

  • The first is to continue to repeatedly travel down each and every blind bunny trail in unison. Only to discover the bandit the Keystone Cops are searching for is now at the bank.
  • Have each individual producer deal with the details of the development of their own Intellectual Property. Then undertake the scope and scale of software development that is commensurate with People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification at each producer location. 
  • Or share in the cost of development and focus on our user community to deal with the specific issues and opportunities as their distinct competitive advantage. Where they’ll have the understanding and resources, including access to the Intellectual Property and developers to make changes to the software code.

Seeing the broad scope of this challenge and the approach of “muddle through” makes sense to the officers and directors. 

Professor Romer’s "Endogenous Technical Change" leverages specialization and the division of labor in material ways. It is revolutionary and applied throughout the Preliminary Specification to the benefit of the oil & gas producer and greater oil & gas economy. To choose otherwise in this highly technical and complex society. Where the speed and pace of business has proven to be far beyond the capabilities of the officers and directors. Where the scope and scale of the issues are existential in their magnitude, such as what the industry has been faced with over the past few decades. To misunderstand the business, the direction, the vision and strategy of what to do, when and where to do it. As displayed by the officers and directors in 2024. Leaves one asking how is it that consolidation will do anything but accelerate the demise of the oil & gas industry in North America?

Tuesday, February 06, 2024

X Hits the Spot

I'm attempting to reignite the passion I once found on Twitter, now on X. Back in 2018, I faced a shadow ban for expressing skepticism about clean energy, which, unbeknownst to me at the time, severely limited my visibility. This type of ban makes your tweets invisible to your followers, essentially silencing your voice without you knowing.

However, the real challenge isn't just the invisibility. It's the aftermath—when the algorithm interprets the lack of engagement as disinterest, making it increasingly difficult to reach an audience. Despite having over 480 engaged and high-quality followers in the oil & gas sector, my activity and reach took a significant hit. Now, with 309 still-valuable followers, the vibrancy and interaction I once enjoyed have dwindled. Despite my efforts, regaining my former algorithmic favor seems an uphill battle.

With Elon Musk at the helm, Twitter has transformed. It's now a platform ripe for lively discussions and open exchanges, offering a valuable opportunity for meaningful dialogue. My persistence started to pay off in January 2024, when I welcomed my first non-spam follower since the ban—a small yet hopeful sign of reconnection.

I'm eager to broaden the conversation and engage with a wider audience. If you're interested in the intricacies of oil & gas ERP systems or the broader energy sector, I invite you to join the dialogue. Let's revitalize the discussion together at https://www.twitter.com/piobiz