People, Ideas & Objects Response to a Request for Proposal , Part XI
Recommendation
The Issue
The world has begun to understand and appreciate the value inherent in oil & gas. With 10 - 25 thousand man hours of equivalent labor in each barrel. Our global level of consumption is 28 to 71 times the entire population's physical capabilities. To replace that this century would be ambitious. What we can do and what we must do, and what we should have done all along is not waste one drop of these resources by ensuring they’re produced profitably, everywhere and always. To ensure that we’re responsibly using the resources and leaving future generations with proof that we did, by passing on a viable, strong industry to manage that resource and the resource itself that is abundant, affordable and reliable?
Why would we ever produce any oil & gas unprofitably?
What we know today is that none of the North American oil & gas that has been produced in the past four decades has generated one cent in profitability at any time. It was a process of taking investor money to “build balance sheets” and “put cash in the ground.” Words that were spoken throughout the industry as if they had some actual meaning. A misguided and deluded group of officers and directors that have been self dealing for so long they know no difference and have failed comprehensively in their role of generating profits for their shareholders and now their organizations failure to meet the consumers demands for energy. Officers and directors who when faced with the challenge of making shale formations, or any part of their business, commercial decided it was best to walk away and pursue the green pastures of fake energy.
These are not my issues and I certainly did everything I could to mitigate these disasters we’re about to experience. They are not my responsibility as I chose to address the issue and was ostracized and vilified for it. Which if the officers and directors of the producers might want to take note, did not deter me from doing my job. If someone suggests that People, Ideas & Objects et al Preliminary Specification is only “vaporware” they’d be correct. They’d also be stating the obvious fact that the officers and directors have succeeded in killing off a viable threat to their existence. An existence that has proven to be wholly unproductive and damaging to all concerned, and most particularly society in general. What I have had to persevere as a result of the engaged battle with these bureaucrats since the May 2004 publication of the Preliminary Research Report has been a shame in light of the consequences of the producers inaction regarding their lack of support for this initiative. I repeat, not one penny in support has been received from them towards the development of any aspect of this work. I only received abuse that I would equate to the equivalent of repeating beatings with baseball bats in the alley behind the dumpster. And now, with the desperate issues Industry faces, with no preparation or capacity to deal with them, what we’re seeing is what we’ve always seen “muddle through.” After seven years of their investors' refusal to continue being the “mark,” all we see in response from the officers and directors to their investors is that they’ll “muddle through.”
People, Ideas & Objects are aware of the high upfront cost and makeup of our development and implementation budget, our budget is based on 5,000 man years of effort. The issue we’re resolving is comprehensive and we’ve discussed at length both the necessity of the Preliminary Specification and its cost. Officers and directors' concern for these high costs is moot when the value that has been wasted since its publication in August 2012 is tragic. These costs may have at one time been considered opportunity costs, however the fact that these costs have now been incurred annually for decades and led to such evident destruction proves they were never opportunity costs.
Management of risk in business is a skill and takes a certain amount of industry knowledge and understanding to mitigate. Officers and directors of the producer firms are alleged to be motivated by such objectives yet have done little to deal with the associated risk of the oil & gas business. In terms of hedging oil & gas commodities, our sample of producers which represent approximately one third of the Canada and U.S. production profile. Reported hedging losses of $34.2 billion in the last five quarters. Therefore we can assume this would represent over $100 billion in losses for the broader population of producers. Such is the skill of the officers and directors of the producer firms. The arguments regarding our budget are specious and self serving in light of the consequences being experienced today and the time constraints officers and directors have imposed on themselves.
The selection of the Preliminary Specification may be seen as the producers first step in reclaiming their integrity in the eyes of their investors. There would be incremental value beyond our defined value proposition in doing so. As the value differential in terms of the cash flow multiple vs. the market capitalization of our sample of 18 producers representing 11.562 million boe / day is $220.2 billion, therefore potentially triple the number for the North American producers. It may be that the capital market is predicting a decline in the oil & gas producer firms, or, is the fact that this differential is consistent across many quarters more valid? Of the more active traders in these firms markets are the producers themselves. In the first half of 2022 $13.4 billion in share buybacks were conducted by our sample of producers. Without these share buybacks how understated are these differentials? To assume action by producers is possible reflects my naive optimism. The reality is the officers and directors will “muddle through.”
What if the following scenario was the case. Producer officers and directors ceased to be subject to the whims of the commodity price swings and learned to build value everywhere and always through the implementation of the Preliminary Specification.
- How much of that $220.2 billion for our sample of producers and $660.6 billion for the industry valuation differential would be reclaimed by proceeding with People, Ideas & Objects et al?
- Elimination of the need to hedge commodities occurs when profitability everywhere and always is being earned and the cyclical nature of the industry is worked out.
- How much larger would that valuation differential grow when and if producers select SAP?
- If officers and directors choose SAP does that prove People, Ideas & Objects allegations of a deliberate and destructive lack of performance and accountability?
- For those major producers who’ve used SAP, in some cases for decades, reflect that they’re part of the problem?
- These are clearly not concerns of the producer firms based on their history. Will these ever become concerns of the producers, officers and directors?
My argument is this, the development budget of the Preliminary Specification is a slight after taste in terms of the scale of opportunity costs, hedging and market valuation losses that officers and directors feel are acceptable. We certainly don’t hear any concern coming from them about these issues. We have a highly advanced society today that has many complex and difficult issues and opportunities. When points of view such as the Preliminary Specification are offered in 2012 should they not be looked at objectively and evaluated on the basis of their potential to mitigate risk in the long run? Or maybe even before then, such as our Preliminary Research Report in May 2004. We have a similar situation captured in a Winston Churchill quote that addresses the point.
Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong - these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history
Therefore the issue is the officers and directors of the producer firms who have personally benefited at the expense of all others associated with oil & gas. Officers and directors have been the ones who were responsible for ensuring none of this happened, had the authority to deal with it and the resources to correct it. They’ve now begun the process of sauntering off the field into unrelated industries and businesses. Unable to provide a viable solution to the difficulties they’ve created. Yet, they want to take the primary oil & gas revenues with them. Primary oil & gas revenues that were generated through the efforts of their investors, employees and the service industry who provided them and will be needing them to rebuild the industry from the mess that producers made. To add insult to injury, the one action they will take after seven years of not listening to their investors is they'll implement SAP instead of People, Ideas & Objects to ensure they won’t have to be held accountable for this damage and destruction, and no one will find any of the skeletons they’ve hidden in their closets.
Accounting for the Damage & Destruction
There is no doubt that many in oil & gas don't fully appreciate what it is that I’m discussing when I talk about damage and destruction. Officers and directors do and they’ve clearly understood since the publication in May 2004 of our Preliminary Research Report. They’ve always seen it as a threat and know they would not personally benefit from it. We can all agree that the “endless repetition of history” is what we’ve been faced with for centuries in so many situations. However we live in a society now where time does not afford us the luxury of that viable scapegoats acceptance any longer. Many people will be affected negatively in the most dire manner in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere this winter. And what about subsequent years? Today people are waking up to the folly of green energy and the imminent environmental Armageddon's entry into its seventh decade. Oil & gas is nothing like oxygen to the body. It’s analogous to the blood that allows everything else to function.
Nonetheless here is People, Ideas & Objects recommendation to North American producers. Select the Preliminary Specification as the industry standard ERP system. Bold, audacious and justified on the following basis. Today producers may feel they’re sailing on for a good run and do not have to concern themselves with the past. What is evident in their second quarter 2022 financial statements is that there are legacy damages and difficulties ahead. The greatest that I can see is the lack of trust, faith and integrity the capital marketplace holds for the producer firms. Cash flows are poor in comparison to the capitalization that’s been recorded and barely support the “lofty” valuations producers feel they may have earned through their obstinate “muddle through” strategy. Comparing today’s performance to the past four decades doesn’t impress. However, even these valuations are not being believed, and in most cases North American producers are trading at half those valuations.
The handful of producers that are able to perform at the level of their cash flow multiples should be participating in the development of the Preliminary Specification as well. Those that are not performing will be the ones who will be desperate for revenue and putting their entire production profile on the market despite the implications to the commodity price. It might be wise to remember the negative $40 prices of April 2020 of which no one individual producer was responsible. The Preliminary Specification recognizes the Joint Operating Committee and the integration of the producers within the partnership will enhance the collaboration and innovation throughout the property, the producer and the industry. Having producers partners in their Joint Operating Committees operational on the same standard, objective basis through the Preliminary Specification will be beneficial.
Investors of these producer firms need to let it be known that the only acceptable solution to them is People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and their service provider organizations with Oracle Cloud ERP. Selection of SAP or any other ERP system is not an option. This has to be specifically communicated in the same manner that the prior request for a tier 1 ERP system was made. Otherwise there is much to lose for all concerned.
We’re kidding ourselves to think that officers and directors will act in any way contrary to their “muddle through” behavior. A behavior that has become the culturally systemic method of operation. There is no need to understand this than to assess the situation in terms of the industries standing today. All of these points are a result of decades of mistreatment and abuse of their position of power, authority, accountability and responsibility for the purpose of personal financial gain. The cumulative symptoms and attributes that have led to the damage and destruction People, Ideas & Objects rant about include…
- Never selling the attributes of oil & gas that consumers gain from the use of their products. Losing the political agenda to environmentalists and woke politicians.
- Becoming wholly dependent on outside capital to support all business operations.
- Overreported capitalization due to “building balance sheets” and “putting cash in the ground” enabled producers to leverage their positions excessively during two decades of low interest rates. Creating a future crisis due to extreme levels of debt during a period of normalizing interest rates.
- Creating organizations incapable of profitability, understanding of how or what to do to earn it. Culturally sealing the inability to determine profitable operations were ever necessary and assuming they were not.
- Never taking responsibility or accountability for anything. Blaming, excusing and creating viable scapegoats of others whose fault they’ve fallen victim to. Enforcing a culture of “muddle along” and inaction.
- Liquidating the value of the industry to the point where it has a negative net present value. Current operations demand that capital be consumed in day to day activities.
- Deprecating producers' organizational structure, operational capacities and capabilities. Cannibalizing the service industry as their last source of capital financing by extending a/c payable to 18 months. Fundamentally destroying the greater oil & gas economy.
- Capital structures of producers and the service industry are unsupported by debt or equity providers. Zero remedial efforts taken to address these concerns. Approaching one full decade of inaction and uncaring since investors began their withdrawal from industry. Continuing cash flow from a capital intensive industry sustains their personal aggrandizement, therefore what’s at issue?
- Losing the mid to long term capacity to meet the consumers market demands for energy. The most powerful economy will consume the most energy. Creating a distinct threat to the most powerful economy ever developed. Therefore what’s at issue?
- Incapable of standing up to teenage wanna-be environmentalists. Asserting the value add of the oil & gas products in the lives of the consumer. Turtling at any and all points of conflict. Leaving it to pipeline companies and others to fight their battles, while they pay the grift to the environmentalists not to protest producers.
- Employing their cultural propensity to abandon prior efforts which include their latest and greatest effort, shale, which they’ve now declared would never be commercial. Instead of remediating these assets they moved on to the next latest and greatest thing. Notice the slight of hand?
- Sauntering off the field in the direction of the unaccountable clean energy businesses where they’ll continue to prosper personally and never have to concern themselves again with being successful. Using the oil & gas revenues to support these activities through contrived boardroom battles. Listening to the “investors” concerns for the environment is the only issue of the investors they’ve ever responded to.
- Therefore, the producers leadership has walked off the stage with the oil & gas revenues in tow to the land of unaccountability where they’re “saving the planet!”
- After all of this, what are producers offering oil & gas investors? A history, a legacy, a culture of failure, greed and “muddle through.” A theft of their revenues they invested to build. An inability to understand their primary role is to earn profits. A point they not only disagreed with, they laughed when I suggested it and have no clue about how to earn it. Culturally incapable of doing so.
- Seeking to seal this culture permanently in their implementation of SAP to keep the party going.
In all of this there has been no response from oil & gas producers. From our initial Preliminary Research Report in May 2004, the investors strike beginning in 2015, not a thing has been done. What needs to be acknowledged by these officers and directors of the producers is that it is within the scope of their domain to deal with their issues. Profitability is the issue. The solution is in front of them in the form of the Preliminary Specification. There will be no one from now on that hands them anything. If they dispatched their ways and means to the scrap heap of history. Adopting the Preliminary Specification profitability would provide all the money they could ever want to do as they pleased in terms of the business. Do they want to have $800 billion to build LNG facilities in Canada, make that money. The means of which are on the table. If they want to do anything that they can think of in North American oil & gas then the only thing stopping them is their own obstinance. Build a profitable business and the world is your oyster. I’ll spell it out explicitly. If you want to pursue green dreams make oil & gas profitable.
But no, they’ll outlast the investors who’ll be back begging to get in. I mentioned that oil & gas ERP systems were abandoned by our investor class in the mid 1990s. This was due to our inability to perform financially because we were unable to convince producers to manage their business appropriately as far back as then. If we assume that the Preliminary Specification et al is the appropriate solution. If we assume that the value proposition is as it's stated, you would assume that the ERP investors would be bashing down my door. Two things are stopping this. 1) I won’t accept their money because I am unaware of how I can make money in this business without having the producer buy-in that this RFP Response addresses. 2) ERP investors are not here. They know what the situation is and based on their experience from the 1990s have left. Nothing has changed and therefore they remain where they are.
Producers need to understand that they’ll never attract investors or bankers ever again until such time as they change the performance trajectory of their firms. There are no signs of that, only their obstinate and stubborn “muddle through” strategy that destroyed everything and continues to do so.
These are the issues that People, Ideas & Objects set out to address with our Preliminary Research Report in May 2004. What had become the basis of our research that led to the Preliminary Specifications publication in August 2012. An interesting quotation from Mark P. Mills of the Manhattan Institute has a direct application to the history of oil & gas.
Brookfield’s CEO said that the strategy follows the same deal-making common in other capital-intensive industries. Companies will happily take any supplemental money, but the market opportunity, not the subsidies, underpins such big investment gambles. The key, to use the famous truism from Walter Wriston (the former, storied CEO of Citibank), is that “capital will always go where it’s welcome and stay where it’s well treated. Capital is not just money. It’s also talent and ideas.”
Putting this into context as to what’s occurred in North American oil & gas. Culturally, producer officers and directors grew to believe that investors became an organizational subsidy. Not the means to pursue the market opportunity.
To deal with this today demands only one solution and that is People, Ideas & Objects et al as defined in this RFP response. What this also proves is the common knowledge that “organizations don’t change, people do.” The resistance to change that we’ve experienced, and that of the producers' investors, has originated in one area of each and every North American producer, the officers and directors. Our final attempt to deal with them was in sending an offer to the directors of the producers in July 2021 which they ignored. This Response to a Request For a Proposal is highly derivative of the proposal that was sent to them. This proposal is not directed at them and therefore, no harm no foul, my abuse is inert.
We are directing this RFP Response at those investors who have seen enough to know the situation today is not being addressed effectively. People, Ideas & Objects don’t need to tear things down in order to start over. That’s already been done, we need to rebuild the industry in the vision of the Preliminary Specification. The only way we’ll accomplish that is for the investors to tell the producers officers and directors to fund the Preliminary Specification specifically. What will happen in North American oil & gas if this doesn’t happen has been speculated earlier in this proposal and can be assumed some time this winter by looking out the window.