Change, Part XI - Where’s the Value
Producers should develop business models that extend beyond mere drilling and production. While reserves must be valued, this is contingent upon their profitable extraction. Unprofitable operations can be restructured to enhance reserve valuations. Business challenges should be addressed through engineering solutions. The current focus on increasing oil and gas production is not the primary concern; instead, prospective start-up and small producers should anticipate future issues and position their firms accordingly. For instance, the management of solution gas represents a business problem amenable to engineering resolution. Excess natural gas enters the market as a byproduct of oil production, often sold at suboptimal prices.
Producers appear to adopt a policy of immediate concession regarding associated, solution, or casinghead gas, viewing it as an unavoidable constraint. However, no problem is inherently insolvable. The entity that resolves this issue will generate substantial value by restoring natural gas pricing to its heating value equivalent of 6:1 relative to oil. This challenge has contributed to the industry’s estimated $4.7 trillion in natural gas revenue losses this century. Resolving it could form the foundation of a robust business model and enterprise.
Two years ago, People, Ideas & Objects highlighted the leakage of natural gas value from North America due to producers’ failure to maintain title to the product through to the end user, resulting in billions of dollars in annual revenue losses. Fortunately now, companies such as EQT and Conoco have begun addressing this by establishing contractual arrangements for free-on-board delivery to destinations, thereby capturing the full value of their gas production when operations begin in 2029, 2030 and later.
The oil and gas sector has evolved beyond a simple drill-and-produce paradigm. A pressing concern is the impending disruption from Information Technology (IT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure, which threatens to overwhelm unprepared entities in the next two to three years. The potential damage exceeds the value overlooked in areas such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). Impacts will be widespread and subtle, with firms often unaware until value is irretrievably lost. IT and AI represent direct assaults on consolidated, monolithic organizations, which must also defend vulnerable flanks. The industry as a whole remains highly susceptible. Consolidated producers may attempt to divest underperforming assets to others capable of implementing solutions they themselves could not pursue.
While this may be perceived as a critique from People, Ideas & Objects directed at consolidated producers, it underscores a consistent emphasis on value and profitability. For new start-up and small producers led by engineers and geologists, the insights in these paragraphs should inspire an entrepreneurial initiative.
A viable strategy aligns with the framework outlined in the Preliminary Specification. Recognizing the increasing demand for engineering and geological expertise per barrel of oil and gas produced, the industry must expand its resource base. Decades of retirements and inadequate recruitment have constrained available talent. People, Ideas & Objects propose addressing this through specialization and the division of labor.
This approach will materially enhance the productivity of these resources, sufficiently resolving the shortage. Specialization and the division of labor have been the primary mechanisms for value generation since 1776. In contemporary organizations, which are defined and supported by software—such as the People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification—this process is essential. Please review our Work Order to understand how new producers can establish and generate secondary revenue streams. Initiating expansions in division of labor and specialization, based on unique intellectual property, will serve as a starting point.
The process of specialization and division of labor is fundamentally straightforward, driving productivity by addressing unmet needs. Historically incidental, it has become deliberate in the 21st century due to software dependency. It involves identifying and filling gaps where tasks are omitted but could add value. As suggested herein, focusing on value gaps—where producers have overlooked, unrealized, or wasted opportunities—offers significant potential for generating new value in the North American oil and gas industry. The advent of the AI and IT disruption will further disperse such value that is not captured.
Experience indicates that consolidated producers are unlikely to act decisively to mitigate their loss or capture this value. Despite opportunities and options provided by People, Ideas & Objects, they have responded with criticism rather than collaboration. They have been afforded every possible avenue to safeguard their interests and have derived benefits from our efforts, yet they decline to act. If they choose to remain vulnerable, that responsibility rests with them.
We can all agree that:
- a) It is irresponsible of consolidated producers to ignore these issues and those of their investors these past decades. Society may have been put at risk in terms of our continental energy independence and / or stability of supply.
- b) It would be irresponsible of us to now just point fingers at consolidated producers. Especially when the situation would be so lucrative for us. No one will grant us that luxury in just a few short year’s time.
