Tuesday, June 03, 2025
Monday, June 02, 2025
AI, The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Part I
Artificial Intelligence, the Fourth Industrial Revolution
Artificial Intelligence (AI) marks the dawn of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, following steam, electricity, and Information Technology. While today’s AI capabilities may be overhyped, their rapid evolution is undeniable—each use yields results ranging from brilliant to underwhelming, yet consistently improving on a steep trajectory. Ignoring or dismissing AI risks diminishing future prospects in an era of relentless advancement.Artificial Intelligence in Oil & Gas
Oil & gas presents a challenging future in what is a scientific business. People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification will bring about the ability for producers to commercially compete in North American capital markets. Providing for the most profitable means of oil & gas operations everywhere and always. By supporting the scientific disciplines with comprehensive, actual, factual financial information to base their decisions. Creating a dynamic operational environment which ensures alternative strategies can be deployed and producers profitability is maximized. An accounting and administrative resource that is unavailable to them today, and if it were, would the industry be in the state that it's in? Or, would other decisions have been made by understanding what the business impact of their decisions were.When it comes to the use of AI in oil & gas. From the commercial side of the business the old adage of “garbage in, garbage out” would need to be created if it did not already exist. There is nothing that can be done with estimated, highly aggregated, then summarized data into information when its data has no consistency or meaning. There’s a reason that the scientific approach in oil & gas has dominated. It’s due to the lack of any usable accounting information. As we hypothesize, producers split their focus to the operational side of oil & gas, the science, and the commercial side which focuses on the corporate accounting, tax and regulatory requirements. The Preliminary Specification resolves this conflict by using the Joint Operating Committee as its key Organizational Construct. Where operations will be supported with a business perspective in which to make its decisions.
Our Artificial Intelligence module builds off the data infrastructure prepared in our Performance Evaluation (Joint Operating Committee focus) and Analytics & Statistics modules (Corporate focus). It also conducts the processing and generic or base necessities of the producers and Joint Operating Committees data to alleviate the high costs associated with Artificial Intelligence by sharing this base infrastructure across the producers. Allowing producers to limit their AI costs to the high level, competitive advantages they can generate from the tool.
A Fourth Industrial Revolution
The FYI Podcast from ARK Investments, featuring Dr. Jin Hyung Lee of Stanford University, highlights the limits of binary hypothesis testing in neuroscience and the need for a holistic, system-level approach—accelerated by Artificial Intelligence (AI)—to spark a Fourth Industrial Revolution. This blog post draws parallels to oil and gas, where similar narrow thinking has led to systemic issues. Embracing AI and human-driven holistic design, as enabled by People, Ideas & Objects’ Preliminary Specification, could redefine the industry’s future.Past industrial revolutions—steam, electricity, and Information Technology—displaced manual labor and repetitive tasks, freeing humans for higher-order work. Steam powered factories, electricity enabled production lines, and IT automated data processing, each unlocking new value and industries. AI now supercharges hypothesis testing, analyzing vast datasets and running simulations at unprecedented scales. In neuroscience, Dr. Lee notes that focusing on isolated variables, like amyloid plaques in Alzheimer’s, misses the brain’s complex, interconnected systems. AI can process multidimensional data—neural networks, genetics, and behaviours—revealing insights beyond siloed approaches.
In oil and gas, similar limitations persist. Narrow, operational-focused decision-making, driven by inadequate accounting data, has crippled profitability. The Preliminary Specification addresses this by aligning operations with comprehensive financial insights via the Joint Operating Committee, leveraging AI to process complex datasets and optimize decisions. However, AI excels at specific tasks but lacks the human capacity for holistic reasoning. Dr. Lee faced academic resistance to system-level approaches due to entrenched incentives favouring narrow research—a parallel to oil and gas leadership’s resistance to change.
Humans must lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution by framing questions, designing system-level models, and interpreting AI outputs. Just as steam empowered engineers and IT enabled analysts, AI can enhance oil and gas professionals’ ability to build dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable operations. The Preliminary Specification’s AI module, built on robust data from our Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules, enables producers to harness AI for competitive advantage, redefining what’s possible in a capital-intensive industry. This revolution isn’t just about speed—it’s about creating a sustainable, innovative future.
Posted by Paul Cox at 5:30 AM 0 comments
Thursday, May 29, 2025
Arbitrage Strategy, Part V, Conclusion
In our April 7, 2025 paper, “Oil & Gas Arbitrage: The Market Finds a Way,” and throughout this series, we pose critical questions about the oil and gas industry’s trajectory. Can the current leadership address its financial, operational, and political challenges? Is the Preliminary Specification the essential first step to organizing a resolution? How much time remains before control slips away—or has that already begun?
The consequences are stark:
- Bloated assets that are worth little or negative value as they demand cash to produce.
- Bloated assets represent a dollar for dollar equivalent in bloated profitability.
- Are also represented today in shareholders equity that in almost all cases would be negative if asset values were appropriately restated.
- Therefore leaving producers with debt that is leveraged in logarithmic measures.
- Decades of structural working capital deficiencies, and poorly performing cash flow metrics incapable of maintaining basic business operations.
- Assets that are incapable of performing competitively to generate adequate free cashflow and profit.
- Leading to declining productivity as admitted in Saturday’s May 17, 2025 WSJ.
- Producers blame their investors' demands for dividends.
- Unaware that profitable operations provide a producer with independence and control of their direction.
- Severely deprecated and diminished industrial capacity in its secondary industries. Actively pursuing business opportunities outside of North America and in other industries.
- Investors and bankers abandoned the producer's capital structures a decade ago due to their lack of understanding why profits are necessary.
- Which is worse, having investors abandon the producers for cause, or producers doing nothing about investor concerns for over a decade.
- Acceptance or action by officers and directors to resolve the issue directly. Involves their admission of responsibility and culpability.
Officers and Directors Trajectory
The oil and gas industry’s dysfunction is deeply cultural and systemic. We can either attempt to reform this broken culture or reject it entirely, rebuilding with the vision of People, Ideas & Objects’ Preliminary Specification. Engaging with the current culture ensures its survival, fueled by higher commodity prices that only amplify its excesses and rewards the entitled. This business model is obsolete, has utterly failed, and will continue to fail—believing otherwise is delusional.As investors demanded change in 2015, they must now lead the industry’s reconstruction through our Arbitrage Strategy. This is a daunting task, with asset values tied to the present value of projected reserves, as determined by reservoir engineers’ industry cost averages, not historical company figures. Producers’ scientists rely on these valuations to prop up balance sheet asset values, but these assets underperform and require significant revaluation to reflect their true worth. Cash-strapped producers are beginning what may become a broader liquidation, where real asset prices will emerge. See here.
Investors, skilled at profiting from such opportunities, face assets with undefined management and operational frameworks. The Preliminary Specification is the only viable solution, but it requires funding for development. Given the oil and gas ERP market’s historical challenges, I am not issuing equity or debt, as I cannot deliver the Preliminary Specification profitably to shareholders. Our value proposition benefits producers, and if they deem it undesirable, I accept that. However, funding for development must ultimately come from oil and gas production in some form.
Replacement Value of the Incremental Barrel
What must dictate the price of oil & gas commodities is the high costs needed to bring the incremental barrel of oil equivalent to the market. North American producers have the highest cost production and fill the role of swing producers. Any legacy property with the ability to bring about lower cost production will benefit profitably until such time as that production has exhausted itself. Nonetheless the producers are faced with the high cost of exploring and developing oil & gas production and that replacement cost is the real cost of oil & gas on that market.Where else is it expected that producers will be able to acquire the financial resources necessary to sustain their production profile if the appropriate “replacement cost profits” are not derived from current production. If they’re relegated to maintaining a utility styled return on the properties investment, in an industry with an inherent steep cost inflation, investors will forever be at the behest of producers looking for further capital spending.
An inherent characteristic of the economic “price maker” is that they’ll only bring on new production that’s profitable. What has happened in the process of dividing the producer in two, as our overall hypothesis suggests. Where exploration and production are handled by scientists. And the business is operated with regard to corporate accounting, tax and regulatory requirements by accounting. Two disparate worlds where neither is fully aware of the other's value. As a result, what has driven the interest, vision and direction of the industry since the early 1990s. Has been the pursuit of science in terms of what is the most interesting and fascinating science to be involved in. For example, conventional production has withered to small percentages of the production profile. In natural gas it’s at 21% of the total US production. Despite its cost and deliverability being far more profitable than shale. “Business” is a foreign concept to oil & gas producers, officers and directors.
What we’ve also seen throughout the past three decades is characteristic of the Keystone Kops. Industry testing unproved hypotheses only to abandon them to the next great thing. SAGD, heavy oil, unconventional until the declaration that shale will never be commercial and clean energy is the future, to a 180 degree return to shale. And as of last Saturday's WSJ, peak shale is here. Never taking a moment to consider what could be done to iterate and innovate through various means and methods to make these areas profitable.
This on top of poorly considered talking points such as drill baby drill when they knew they’ve all but destroyed the service industry. And when the U.S. president opens the door for them they say that’s not really what they want. It certainly is not the leadership anyone would want, but it’s the leadership we have. They’ve proven incapable of anything but lies and excuses. And make no effort to change their ways.
Conclusion
People, Ideas & Objects propose this Arbitrage Strategy to shift oil and gas from its stagnant “muddle through” culture to a dynamic, innovative, accountable, and profitable one, guided by the vision of our Preliminary Specification.As Milton Friedman noted:
Only a crisis—actual or perceived—produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable.Or Henry Kissinger
By the time the threat can no longer be denied or minimized, the scope for action will have constricted or the cost of confronting the problem may have grown exorbitant. Misuse time, and limits will begin to impose themselves. Even the best of the remaining choices will be complex to execute, with reduced rewards for success and graver risks in failure. (Henry Kissinger, Leadership)People, Ideas & Objects believe North American oil and gas is 80–85% of the way to an existential economic, operational and political crisis. Waiting for it to fully unfold risks catastrophe beyond our current imagination.
The culprits—producer officers and directors—are paralyzed by their culpability and predictable inaction. Their failure has pushed the industry, including its secondary and tertiary sectors, to the brink, necessitating urgent rehabilitation of capacities and capabilities and overall industry rebuilding.
Our Preliminary Specification offers a vision for rebuilding the industry around reserves preservation, performance, and profitability, ensuring producers achieve the most dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable operations. Time for debating alternatives has run out. We’ve laid out a framework where every individual and industry organization can contribute to this rebuilding process.
Delaying action by even six months risks irreparable damage. Consolidation won’t solve this, and trust in current leadership has eroded to the point where there’s no longer any expectations of current officers and directors. A “remove and replace” approach, aligned with the Preliminary Specification, must begin immediately—reconciling with the existing culture would be futile.
Success in averting this crisis depends on everyone finding a role in our vision of a rebuilt industry and acting now to build that. If our funding is secured but others remain passive, expecting People, Ideas & Objects to single-handedly deliver, failure is certain. Starting later, amid chaos, will also make rebuilding more difficult. Our funding decisions must be made within six months. If actions are delayed due to a continued lack of urgency, I fear we’ll lose focus when people are consumed by industry related firefighting.
Posted by Paul Cox at 5:30 AM 0 comments
Thursday, May 22, 2025
Arbitrage Strategy, Part IV, Reserve's Economics
Changes in Overhead
People, Ideas & Objects have refrained from estimating the overhead cost reductions achievable through the Preliminary Specification, until now. Overhead, primarily personnel costs for building and maintaining the capacity and capabilities to support oil and gas operations, faces imminent disruption. Dynamic technological advancements, particularly in automation and AI, are poised to transform work processes significantly.Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas: Currently, each producer redundantly builds its own accounting and administrative infrastructure. Our centralized, cloud-based solution eliminates this duplication, leveraging the cloud computing paradigm to drastically cut industry-wide overhead costs.
Variable Cost Structure via Joint Operating Committee: The Preliminary Specification restructures operations around the Joint Operating Committee, making all costs, including overhead, variable based on profitable production. Shutting in unprofitable production results in a null operation—neither profit nor loss—maximizing corporate profitability.
Hyperspecialization and Division of Labor: Artificial Intelligence enables hyperspecialization and enhanced division of labor, orchestrating complex processes that would otherwise be unmanageable and chaotic. Intellectual Property, one of seven Organizational Constructs in the Preliminary Specification, defines, controls access, administers licenses, and enforces authority, ensuring efficient management. Read our paper on Hyper-specialization, Artificial Intelligence and Intellectual Property.
Automation through Permanent Software Development: The Preliminary Specification’s ongoing software development capability delivers high levels of automation, further reducing overhead costs.Together, these features could achieve up to a two-thirds reduction in overhead costs for North American oil and gas producers. Gross overhead, typically 12–20% of revenue, translates to cost savings of 8–13% of revenue. (Note: All overhead discussed is gross, excluding capitalization and allowances.)
The future of work remains uncertain and unpredictable but is undeniably unstoppable. Embracing this path is the most productive approach for all stakeholders. Opening a buggy-whip factory today would be as misguided as it was a century ago.
Capitalization
The oil and gas industry’s capitalization practices, as critiqued extensively in this blog, have devolved into a cultural fixation on “building balance sheets” and “putting cash in the ground.” Such misguided corporate goals, occasionally punctuated by claims that “profits don’t matter,” dominated discourse for decades.Most oil and gas costs, being intangible, are capitalized and depleted over the life of proven reserves. SEC regulations dictate that for X proven reserves, Y expenditures are recognized, resulting in a depletion of Y/X per barrel produced. Shale’s vast reserves inflate reported profitability by stretching depletion schedules. Tax treatments differ, but People, Ideas & Objects focus on what’s required for oil and gas to compete in North American capital markets: determining the marginal price or replacement cost of an incremental barrel.
We propose a pricing model that accelerates capital recognition, treating many intangible costs as operational expenses. This approach, akin to a “third set of books” in Hollywood accounting, reflects the reality that businesses maintain multiple accounting perspectives for distinct purposes. This clarification seems necessary when, as recently as 2023, officers and directors misunderstood basic terms like “free on board” while developing the LNG export market.
Each Joint Operating Committee will receive standardized, objective monthly financial statements to assess property profitability. If a property incurs losses, partners can shut-in production, preserving reserves for future profitable operations.
This accelerated depletion will establish the marginal price needed to replace a barrel of oil or gas equivalent, regardless of whether the property is a decades-old conventional well or a new shale operation. Our model also shifts some capital costs to current-month operations in product pricing calculations.
Investors pursuing our Arbitrage Strategy should exercise caution. Current officers and directors, intoxicated by the cash flows of a capital intensive, primary industry based on partnerships, make poor decisions in this capital-intensive primary industry. With even larger future free cash flows, robust accountability—enabled by Oracle Cloud ERP and our Compliance & Governance model—and disciplined dividend policies are essential to prevent mismanagement.
Where’s the Value
Financial statements evaluate a firm’s performance, they do not capture an organization’s value. Capital markets assess a firm’s value by discounting its future cash flows, driven by the capacity and capability of its reserves to sustain or expand those flows.The capital-intensive nature of oil and gas, with the scope and scale required to maintain and grow deliverability over the next 25 years, presents a formidable challenge.
Conclusion to Capital Assets, Cash and Working Capital
Contrary to “building balance sheets" and “putting cash in the ground,” or spending the allowance investors are willing to provide to what we’ve described as the “old” producers. The Preliminary Specification sets in place a method of business operations to meet their future demands. Where officers and directors will be able to independently undertake the profitable operations of an actual business.The “new” producers as we’ve described them will have an independence in their operations unlike what we have seen before. Where financial performance dictates that they are in control and are able to pick among the best opportunities available. Where they have the financial wherewithal to undertake successful completion of what it is they undertake. Where the drilling rig price quoted is x and the producer respectfully pays x with no expectation of a discount, only the absolute performance that x commands.
Instead of having property, plant and equipment recorded at sky high levels in an attempt to emulate the value of the firm. The capital configuration is different through the Preliminary Specification. Costs are being passed to the consumers in a competitive manner. Competitive in terms of price and competitive in terms of performance in the capital markets. Cash and working capital more specifically are the tools in which producers accomplish their objectives.
The industry in the past two decades has had diminishing working capital due to their lack of performance. This is the reason that nothing is being done in the industry today, no one has the money. They don’t have the money because they haven’t made it, don’t know how to make it, no one’s giving it to them anymore and therefore choose only to listen to music with their friends in the basement.
Compare what an effective executive such as President Biden is able to accomplish in one term and contrast that to one day of President Trump. There’s a reason for the performance differential, however the contrast is appropriate between what a producer is like today and the type we need very soon. Having cash to enact the producers' will is what’s needed. Without it all you can do is beat up vendors for discounts. And in turn, just don’t ask for focus or performance.
Posted by Paul Cox at 5:30 AM 0 comments
Saturday, May 17, 2025
Greatest Endowment of Wealth Ever, Destroyed
The Wall Street Journal reports that “U.S.drillers Say Peak Shale has arrived.” An admission they’ve taken the greatest endowment of wealth ever seen, and destroyed it in not more than two decades.
Lower oil prices are expected to precipitate a decrease in crude output that won’t easily be reversed.
Oil & gas are critical to U.S. economic and political stability, ideally from a position of energy independence or dominance. People, Ideas & Objects have long anticipated this challenge, proposing the Preliminary Specification as a comprehensive organizational framework to address the industry’s needs and objectives.
Our reliance on oil & gas intensifies daily, with each barrel delivering 10,000–25,000 man-hours of labor equivalent and serving as a key feedstock for Artificial Intelligence. Yet, incumbent officers and directors prioritize personal gain over industry health. Since 2012, the Preliminary Specification, built on over a decade of research, has offered a solution to avert a broader societal crisis. While producers now acknowledge the issue, their recognition is inevitable but insufficient without action.
Resolving this crisis begins with organization. The Preliminary Specification provides the roadmap to rebuild a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas industry.
Posted by Paul Cox at 10:17 AM 0 comments
Thursday, May 15, 2025
Arbitrage Strategy, Part III, One Lever, Four Actions
Whether investors choose to sue producer officers and directors for willful misconduct or negligence will be decided by those with greater authority than I. Leverage lies with those who have witnessed decades of poor producer performance. The current situation was predictable, inevitable, and widely discussed by People, Ideas & Objects, making it nearly impossible for officers and directors to claim ignorance—they had to willfully ignore the warning signs.
Today, leverage rests with investors eager to reengage with oil and gas. The status quo leadership, responsible for these issues, will never address them. Acknowledging the problems would demand they admit their culpability.
Investor Actions
First-quarter 2025 reports confirm production declines in over half of our sampled producers, a direct result of their reckless destruction of the service industry, now operating at 30% of its pre-2015 capacity. Their “muddle through” strategy—relying on misinformation, blame-shifting, and scapegoating—yields no progress, only mounting challenges. Under current leadership, the industry is locked in a decades-long culture of decline that will devour any reform attempt. This culture must be abandoned decisively, replaced with People, Ideas & Objects’ vision of reservoir preservation, performance, and profitability.
Decades of leniency have been granted to these leaders, yet the industry continues its downward spiral. Oil and gas are no longer commodities to be taken lightly—our economic and political future hinges on energy independence, or even dominance. Consolidation, a misstep that maintains inflated asset values through dilutive share swaps, is the wrong path.
The investment community must now lead, using this arbitrage strategy to transfer the industry to new hands. By accelerating property sales, “new” investors can rebuild oil and gas under a culture of reservoir preservation, performance, and profitability, as outlined in the Preliminary Specification. The investment community’s objective, unrelenting guidance is essential to wrest control from self-serving officers and directors. The industry’s scientific brilliance and innovation must drive competitive differentiation, enabling dynamic, innovative, accountable, and profitable producers to compete fairly on North American capital markets.
Investors now hold absolute leverage due to officers and directors’ failure to act, breaching their fiduciary duties and exposing themselves to personal financial liability. This leverage can drive the necessary business transformation. The time for action is now—we all share a duty to avert further consequences. North American consumers will soon demand accountability, and the fallout will be severe for those unprepared.
Industry Leadership Actions
Since the early 2000s, I have built a personal knowledge management system inspired by Nobel Prize winner Herbert A. Simon’s insight:In an information-rich world, the wealth of information means a dearth of something else: a scarcity of whatever it is that information consumes. What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.
(Simon, H. A., 1971, Designing organizations for an information-rich world, in Computers, Communications, and the Public Interest, pp. 40–41, The Johns Hopkins Press).
A bold thought, a desperate thought, a thought to raise a man up: how could things be changed so that instead of us running from them, they would run from us? Once the question was put, once a certain number of people had thought of it and put it into words, and a certain number had listened to them, the age of escapes was over. The age of rebellion had begun.
1. The clearest parallel is found in another section of Solzhenitsyn, where an ordinary act of refusal—"I’m not going"—becomes contagious and tips the balance from acquiescence to collective resistance. As others join in and refuse to let the authorities take a fellow prisoner, the captors realize that they can no longer operate with impunity. Solzhenitsyn writes that "[w]e were thousands! that we were... politicals! that we could resist!" The passage concludes with a sense of the revolution gathering strength and the "wind that seemed to have subsided... sprung up again in a hurricane to fill our eager lungs"—a quintessential image of the transition from escape and resignation to rebellion and collective power.Leadership from those specified above know it’s time.
2. Another powerful conceptual sibling is from John Locke, where resistance to tyranny is reframed: "those who justly resist are not the rebels; rather the rebels are those who are justly resisted." The doctrine of just resistance, rather than promoting rebellion, acts as the "best fence against rebellion" because it reminds rulers not to test the people’s tolerance for injustice. This passage carries the idea of a conceptual switch—of the moment when individuals and groups see that the real disturbance is not in resisting but in allowing unchecked authority.The true rebels are not us but the small cadre of officers and directors who have exploited the system for personal gain. They hold the responsibility, accountability, and resources to lead the industry, not to enrich themselves. The status quo offers no viable future. Investors must act decisively, sending an unmistakable signal for reform, as further delays will deepen and prolong our challenges.
3. In Kissinger’s World Order, revolutions are described as erupting "when a variety of often different resentments merge to assault an unsuspecting regime." The broader the coalition, the greater the transformative potential—the parallel here is in the gathering of thought and will, when isolated individuals suddenly see themselves as part of something larger, and revolutionary change becomes possible rather than impossible.In an us vs. them, they are the small cadre of officers and directors who hold the responsibility, accountability and resources to lead the industry, not to fuel their personal empire.
4. In Thomas Schelling’s analysis of "spontaneous" revolt, he notes that when tyranny is effective in making examples of leaders (thus exacting a price for resistance), people will not move until "a signal so unmistakably comprehensible and so potent in its suggestion for action" is received. Once that threshold is crossed, and the potential for mutual support is clear, "spontaneous" collective rebellion becomes possible.I believe that day is today. If left too much longer our difficulties become more profound and protracted. Investors must send "a signal so unmistakably comprehensible and so potent in its suggestion for action" that there is no ambiguity.
5. Victor Davis Hanson discusses the concept of the "counter-revolution," a moment when the "madness" of a revolutionary situation reaches its limits and a critical mass seeks to restore normalcy. This is an explicit call to collective change, where individuals stop running and attempt to reverse the tide.How many more chances will current leadership receive? How can we justify inaction when the need for change is clear? The industry’s trajectory under these officers and directors risks an existential crisis for oil and gas, threatening North America’s economic and political stability. Investors must leverage their authority to drive a mental shift toward action, using the Preliminary Specification’s vision of reservoir preservation, performance, and profitability as the foundation for rebuilding.
6. In the podcast Back to the People, the idea that "doing the right thing... puts the biggest target on your back and they will hunt you" directly echoes the existential risk and courage required to move from compliance or flight to standing one’s ground—even in the face of extreme danger. The passage details the necessity and inevitability of taking a stand, at great personal cost, when confronted with injustice.My journey advocating for industry reform has taught me that ideas have consequences. The Preliminary Specification challenges entrenched norms. Is it enough to catalyze the investment community’s resolve? If left unaddressed, the industry’s decline could redefine “crisis” in catastrophic terms.
7. A different but related angle is found in Changemaking and overcoming resistance: Travis Kalanick asserts that "to overcome resistance to change, build trust with those you are asking to change." The notion here is about overcoming a culture of passivity or hostility—transforming fear and inertia into coordinated change, which echoes Solzhenitsyn's theme of the mental shift that precedes action.Just as Solzhenitsyn described a turning point where courage reaches critical mass, we stand at a crossroads. Investors and new leadership must seize this moment to confront the status quo, shift from resignation to action, and rebuild the industry. History turns on such moments—let this be ours.
8. Lastly, in another highlight from Kissinger's World Order, it's observed that "[t]he grave conditions described here must, in the end, provide the impetus for societies to insist on meaningful leadership... greatness in history resides in the refusal to abdicate to vast impersonal forces," echoing the idea that history turns when people stop fleeing and instead face their challenges head-on.Each of these passages encapsulates—like Solzhenitsyn’s—those pivotal moments where thought and courage reach critical mass and the balance shifts from submission to confrontation, resignation to rebellion, and thus, where history turns.
In Summary, Investors Have One Lever - Four Actions
Our strategy relies on the following understanding. Producer officers and directors can be incentivized to facilitate their companies’ liquidation to reduce their personal liability and preserve Directors & Officers (D&O) Insurance coverage. Investors are able to enact the Arbitrage Strategy by doing the following.- Acquisition of conventional and unconventional reserves at ultra low commodity prices.
- Ultimately realizing both price and reclassification increases in reserves valuations.
- Obtaining profitable operations through a reorganized and Preliminary Specification enabledindustry.
- Producers can be directed to distribute special dividends of the proceeds from property sales to assist their investors in funding their acquisitions.
- Enable People, Ideas & Objects reservoir preservation, performance and profitability culture. “New” investors purchase, and direct “old” producers to acquire Profitable Production Rights. People, Ideas & Objects method in which to fund the Preliminary Specification.
- Producer officers and directors are motivated to participate in their liquidation to mitigate their liability and maintain D&O Insurance Coverage.
- Indirectly stimulating the “new” producers leadership market to initiate action in creating dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas producers.
Posted by Paul Cox at 5:30 AM 0 comments
Monday, May 12, 2025
Arbitrage Strategy, Part II, Leverage
Issue One: Capital Allocation to Reserves
What we do know is that no producer at any time in the past four decades has temporarily shut-in any oil or gas due to its lack of economic performance. Here is the very difficult aspect of the behavior which is conducted in oil and gas today. Not only do they continue to produce systemically, everywhere and always below the breakeven point. They’ve attempted to deceive everyone by allocating their capital costs to each and every molecule of oil and gas held in reserve no matter how long it will take for that molecule to be produced. Will it be this year, this decade or this century in the case of shale reserves of natural gas? Therefore deceiving everyone with the misguided belief that their breakeven costs are $50 / boe when they’re really $150. Causing the erosion of value and wealth to accelerate even faster out the firm.
Issue Two: Shutting In Production
Discussion
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Thursday, May 08, 2025
Arbitrage Strategy, Part I, Background
People, Ideas & Objects Arbitrage Strategy
Our History
Directors and Officers Liability Insurance
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Monday, May 05, 2025
Cultural Stagnation or Revolution
If investors want to involve themselves in consolidation it's their responsibility. Doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results is insanity. There are areas of the investment community with backgrounds derived from oil & gas’ culture. For them to see People, Ideas & Objects perspective takes a certain willingness and courage.
Decision Time
In a decentralized market such as what oil & gas needs. Individual decisions need to be made by independent actors. In the past, or in simpler times this could be orchestrated and coordinated loosely through somewhat primitive means. Today’s demands are far more complex and to suggest this is the reason for consolidation is disingenuous. Accommodating speed, complexity, distance, coordination and accountability is not possible through centralized control. Accountability will most certainly suffer and may be the driving motivation for producers to consolidate. In contrast individuals as actors in a market economy will decide which industry configuration they want and act accordingly. Ray Dalio founder of Bridgewater Associates @RayDalio.
Ultimately, power will rule. This is true of any system. For example, it has repeatedly been shown that systems of government have only worked when those with the power value the principles behind the system more than they value their own personal objectives. When people have both enough power to undermine a system and a desire to get what they want that is greater than their desire to maintain the system, the system will fail. For that reason the power supporting the principles must be given only to people who value the principled way of operating more than their individual interests (or the interests of their faction), and people must be dealt with in a reasonable and considerate way so that the overwhelming majority will want and fight for that principle-based system.
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