Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Reviewed & Revised Profitable Production Rights, Part I

 We have concluded our campaign aimed at bringing to light the adverse consequences inflicted upon the oil & gas sector due to the Willful Misconduct of its officers and directors. We extend our gratitude for their cooperation, which has contributed to a significant shift in the natural gas price structure from 24.82 times the oil price on October 11, 2023, to a record high of 49.41 times at last Friday’s close.

Initially, our assertions regarding the industry's damage and destruction, alongside the critical issue of profitability, were met with skepticism. Many producers dismissed the importance of profits, emphasizing cash flow instead. However, investor intervention helped validate our concerns, underscoring the reality that profitability is indeed crucial. Our value proposition, estimating impacts between $25.7 to $45.7 trillion over the next 25 years, has ultimately underscored the necessity for industry leaders to heed the insights offered by People, Ideas & Objects.

In the aftermath of our campaign, we no longer face challenges in highlighting the issues our Preliminary Specification addresses, nor in garnering consensus regarding our value proposition. The credibility of officers and directors who previously dismissed or were oblivious to these flawed business practices has diminished. Their past reluctance to acknowledge or address these issues reveals a level of responsibility they cannot afford to ignore again. We believe there is an urgent need for these leaders to tackle these challenges head-on. To them, People, Ideas & Objects offers its best wishes for swift and effective resolution.

Introduction

People, Ideas & Objects is revitalizing the oil & gas industry by reintroducing a modified Profitable Production Rights Licensing method. This approach not only funds the development of the Preliminary Specification and nurtures our user community but also grants licensees the dual opportunity to engage in the North American oil & gas sector and its ERP software markets. In today's era, every business is becoming a software business, making participation in our ecosystem essential. I’ll restate here why participation in People, Ideas & Objects et al is valuable in the 21st century. It’s no longer enough to just own the oil & gas asset, it’s also necessary to have access to the ERP software and services of People, Ideas & Objects et al’s Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas that makes the oil & gas assets profitable.

The transition of producer officers and directors towards clean energy and consolidation, coupled with their historical dismissal of shale's commercial viability, highlights a disregard for the oil & gas sector they once managed. This has led to a culture resistant to change, lacking in accountability and transparency, and neglectful of real profitability. Our 2023 / 2024 focus on the LNG issue has illuminated over $4 trillion in lost revenue since July 2007, a testament to the officers and directors willful misconduct.

The North American producer is portrayed as a failing organization, risking societal jeopardy with its inability to sustain shale production. The industry's operational, financial, and political challenges call for innovation and entrepreneurship—qualities the status quo lacks. As Edmund Burke suggests, technology represents a dynamic counterforce to stagnation and tyranny, offering a path towards innovation and change.

Despite the transformative potential of shale technologies since the 2008 financial crisis, the industry has failed to capitalize on this value. The status quo has led to distorted business practices and value destruction, underscoring the necessity for a new approach. People, Ideas & Objects stands as the sole alternative to outdated methods, offering a solution that ensures dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable North American energy independence.

Our Profitable Production Rights Licensing provides the keys to accessing a new model of oil & gas organization—one that prioritizes dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas production, everywhere and always. As the industry faces its future, the choice between embracing this new path or clinging to the status quo will determine its trajectory. People, Ideas & Objects invites everyone to join us in building a future where oil & gas remains a cornerstone of North America's economic prosperity.

Licensing

Profitable Production Rights License

In terms of implementation, our objective is to encode each Profitable Production Rights License onto a dedicated blockchain, specifically secured through Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and the Oracle Autonomous Database. This capability is made possible by the recent introduction of the Oracle Blockchain Table. Within the context of the Preliminary Specification, this Oracle database will oversee the administration of Profitable Production Rights Licenses, effectively managing the contracts of rights holders. Consequently, this enables contracted licensees to access People, Ideas & Objects software and services, while also overseeing and managing their revenue and expenses.

Should any assignments, sub-leases, or transfers of the Profitable Production Rights License occur, these actions will not alter or remove the original purchaser's transaction in the database. Instead, they will generate an additional block on the chain or a new row within the Oracle Blockchain database instance. Profitable Production Rights Licenses are organized via their serial numbers to collate all related transactions, assignments, current ownership details, and the licensing of production rights to the respective producing Joint Operating Committee.

The licensee of the Profitable Production Right will maintain ownership and control over the encryption key necessary to access the record database. This database archives the production contracts executed with producers, who are invoiced based on the terms of the Profitable Production Rights Licensees' contracts. The licensing structure grants exclusive access rights, positioning it as a unique solution for organizing North American oil & gas exploration, production, administration, and accounting in a profitable manner.

Oracle's Blockchain Tables are specifically designed as append-only tables to support centralized blockchain applications. Within this framework, peers are identified as database users who rely on the database's integrity to preserve a tamper-resistant ledger. This ledger, implemented via a blockchain table, is both defined and managed by the application, allowing existing applications to safeguard against fraud without the need for a new infrastructure or programming paradigm. Although the transaction throughput for a blockchain table is lower than that of a standard table, its performance is notably superior to that of a decentralized blockchain system.

It is essential to acknowledge that Oracle's Blockchain Database does not represent a pure blockchain implementation, as it does not distribute its blockchain across servers for validation in the case of suspicious transactions. Instead, its design prioritizes higher transactional performance, a critical requirement for our applications. Managed by the Oracle Autonomous Database, it serves as a crucial component of our Cloud Administration & Accounting for the Oil & Gas Software & Service, ensuring data immutability—a fundamental blockchain feature. This system guarantees that Profitable Production Rights Licensees have secure rights, necessitating that North American oil & gas producers obtain sufficient licenses to access our Cloud Administration & Accounting Software & Services for the entirety of their production profile. People, Ideas & Objects is confident that this solution will provide an unmatched competitive advantage in profitably organizing producers.

Flexible Profitable Production Rights License

Oil & gas production inherently comes with its unpredictability. This is particularly true for fields experiencing decline, with shale regions showing notable variability. The global market demand has witnessed significant fluctuations, as evidenced by a 25% decrease in worldwide consumption during the COVID pandemic. Although such a steep decline might be rare, it establishes a critical baseline for analysis. This situation is further complicated by the decentralized production models and the price maker strategy introduced by the Preliminary Specification, potentially leading to greater and less predictable variations in a producer's production volumes.

Addressing these challenges necessitates a robust mechanism to manage the financial implications of production variability, especially considering the fixed overhead costs associated with Profitable Production Rights Licenses—predominantly those related to Oracle software licenses for Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas software and services.

To mitigate these challenges, People, Ideas & Objects have introduced two distinct categories of Profitable Production Rights. The first category has already been described as the Profitable Production Rights. The second, the Flexible Profitable Production Rights License, is designed to account for up to 25% of the total production profile of the continent or the subscriber base of People, Ideas & Objects, whichever is lower. This allocation is intended to buffer against up to 25% of production variability across all operations. Each producing property is automatically allocated 25% of the Flexible Profitable Production Rights License to compensate for any potential production decline, thereby indemnifying Profitable Production Rights License owners against the financial risks posed by variable production volumes of a Joint Operating Committee production.

In scenarios of extreme production declines, as observed in the past decade, or when production is halted due to unprofitability—a situation expected to represent a small fraction of North America's total output—the Flexible Profitable Production Rights License comes into play. It covers the revenue loss for any shut-in production, assuming the property is being reworked to resume production, aligning with the core objectives of the Preliminary Specification. Should production become indefinitely suspended or abandoned, Profitable Production Rights Licensees are freed to seek new production opportunities. In such cases, revenue impacts would be borne by Flexible Profitable Production Rights Licensees, not the standard Profitable Production Rights Licensees.

The pricing strategy for the Flexible Profitable Production Rights License does not undervalue it compared to the standard Profitable Production Rights License. By People, Ideas & Objects acquiring all Flexible Profitable Production Rights Licenses this will redistribute the margins generated through People, Ideas & Objects to those shut-in areas. Therefore allocating 25% of the overall production profile in consideration for 100% of the Flexible Profitable Production Rights Licenses. Thereby purchasing the Flexible Profitable Production Rights in exchange for 36% of the budgeted earnings of People, Ideas & Objects. Holding all Flexible Profitable Production Rights Licenses is expected to strengthen our negotiating position when leasing these licenses to producer firms that require coverage for a quarter of their total production. Negotiations for Flexible Profitable Production Rights will begin once all Profitable Production Rights have been fully allocated to each Joint Operating Committee.

Therefore to summarize the configuration of Profitable and Flexible Profitable Production Rights.

The strategy outlined for the Flexible Profitable Production Rights License within the context of People, Ideas & Objects involves a nuanced approach to pricing and redistribution of value within the oil & gas sector, specifically targeting areas of production that are currently shut-in or underutilized. This approach does not undervalue the Flexible Profitable Production Rights License in comparison to the standard Profitable Production Rights License. Instead, it aims to leverage these flexible rights to enhance the overall production profile and financial health of the involved entities, particularly Profitable Production Rights Licensees through strategic negotiations and allocations.

1. Acquisition of All Flexible Profitable Production Rights Licenses by People, Ideas & Objects: By acquiring all Flexible Profitable Production Rights Licenses, People, Ideas & Objects positions itself as a central figure in the redistribution of margins to shut-in areas. This action underlines the intent to revitalize these areas by ensuring that they can contribute to and benefit from the broader production and profit mechanisms within the industry.

2. Redistribution Mechanism: Allocating 25% of the overall production profile in exchange for 100% of the Flexible Profitable Production Rights Licenses signifies a strategic redistribution of resources and opportunities. It effectively means that a quarter of the total production capacity is considered in the valuation and acquisition of these flexible rights, aiming to balance the scales between different production potentials and needs within the industry.

3. Financial Arrangements: The decision to exchange these rights for 36% of the budgeted earnings of People, Ideas & Objects highlights a significant investment in the potential of these shut-in areas. It reflects a confidence that the activation and utilization of these areas will not only be profitable but also contribute substantially to the overall earnings and operational success of People, Ideas & Objects.

4. Strengthening Negotiation Positions: Holding all Flexible Profitable Production Rights Licenses enhances People, Ideas & Objects ability to negotiate with producer firms that need to cover a significant portion of their production. This strategic position allows People, Ideas & Objects to dictate terms that are favorable and ensure that the licensing of these rights contributes positively to its objectives and the wider industry's health.

5. Allocation and Negotiation Process: The strategy indicates a phased approach, beginning with the full allocation of Profitable Production Rights to each Joint Operating Committee before initiating negotiations for Flexible Profitable Production Rights. This sequence ensures that the foundational elements of production rights and responsibilities are established, allowing for a more focused and effective negotiation on the flexible aspects.

What do Flexible and Profitable Production Rights Licensees earn?

The narrative provided outlines an innovative approach introduced by People, Ideas & Objects aimed at transforming the operational and financial frameworks within the oil & gas industry. This transformation pivots around the concept of Profitable Production Rights Licenses, which serve as the cornerstone of People, Ideas & Objects strategy to overhaul how the industry functions, particularly in addressing the inefficiencies and value destruction perpetuated by current management practices.

This strategy is the exclusive access granted to licensees of Flexible and Profitable Production Rights to the Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas Software & Services. This exclusivity is pivotal, ensuring that the revolutionary services developed under the Preliminary Specification are reserved for those holding the appropriate licenses. It's a model that not only underscores the value of these licenses but also sets a clear boundary for access to innovative operational capabilities. Each license is designed to enable the profitable processing of one barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, marking a significant step towards more efficient and profitable operations.

An interesting aspect of this strategy is the anticipation of a development phase, a period characterized by the absence of financial transactions, both in terms of revenues and expenses, for the licensees. Despite this, licensees are encouraged to engage with producers early on to secure production rights, laying the groundwork for operations ahead of the commercial launch of Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas Software & Services. This proactive approach is indicative of the strategic foresight embedded in People, Ideas & Objects model.

The revenue model proposed is another key element, with Profitable Production Rights Licensees generating income by levying fees on producers for the processing of their BOE through the platform. The flexibility granted to rights holders in structuring these fees allows for diverse and potentially innovative business models to emerge, tailored to the specific dynamics of the engagements between licensees and producers.

People, Ideas & Objects critique of current industry practices forms a critical backdrop to its strategy. The critique is sharp and comprehensive, pointing to a systemic failure to create value, manage capital structures effectively, and compete for capital since the initial oil price collapse of 1986. Through this lens, People, Ideas & Objects highlights the vast potential for transformation in the industry, underscored by the identification of a $4 trillion revenue loss in the natural gas sector from July 2007 to the end of 2023—a stark reminder of the opportunities missed under current operational paradigms. And a source of value in the Profitable Production Rights Holders offering to producer firms.

In response to these challenges, People, Ideas & Objects presents its value proposition as a beacon of change. By leveraging the Preliminary Specification, People, Ideas & Objects envisions an industry that is not only more dynamic, innovative, and accountable but also significantly more profitable. This vision extends across the full spectrum of oil & gas operations, from exploration and production to administration and accounting, offering a comprehensive blueprint for transforming all producers from the startup to integrated multinationals.

In essence, People, Ideas & Objects strategy represents a bold step forward in reimagining the oil & gas industry. By placing Profitable Production Rights Licenses at the core of its approach, People, Ideas & Objects aims to catalyze a shift towards preservation, performance and profitable operations. This strategy challenges the status quo, proposing a future where the industry not only recovers from its historical inefficiencies but also positions itself as a competitive and financially robust sector, capable of attracting and managing capital with unprecedented efficacy.

What do Flexible and Profitable Production Rights Licenses earn?

The innovative approach introduced by People, Ideas & Objects through the Profitable Production Right License represents a significant shift in the oil & gas industry's operational and financial paradigms. The essence of this shift lies in leveraging advanced technological solutions and strategic pricing models to enhance profitability and operational efficiency. This model meticulously balances the integration of technological advancements with pragmatic financial strategies, aiming to redefine the industry's standards for profit generation and resource management.

The core of the revenue generation mechanism under the Profitable Production Right License is a sophisticated negotiation process. This process aims to establish a share of the present value of the differential, which effectively compares the value proposition offered by People, Ideas & Objects and its associated technological and service advancements against the industry's status quo. The outcome of these negotiations, which will be uniquely tailored to each agreement between the Profitable Production Right Licensee and the producer firm, determines the revenue potentials. Such contracts are managed using the Oracle Blockchain database, ensuring transparency and efficiency in handling each specific barrel of oil equivalent (BOE).

A proposed revenue model suggests linking the licensees' earnings to a percentage of the oil & gas commodity price, with a discussion range between 5% and 10%. This range is designed to capture a significant portion of the pretax profitability of commercial operations, ensuring that producer operations remain profitable under the Preliminary Specification. The rationale is to establish commodity prices that are not only marginal but are elevated to a level that secures profitability. This approach addresses a long-standing indifference from current producers towards optimizing profitability, thus presenting a cost that future producers would consider essential for determining their profitability.

The pricing structure of the Profitable Production Right License, set at $1,000 U.S. per BOE, is reflective of the current North American production profile and accounts for the inclusivity of heavy oil production within the People, Ideas & Objects budget. The model acknowledges the unique operational dynamics of heavy oil producers, including their existing ERP systems, while still positioning them as direct beneficiaries of the price maker strategy advocated by People, Ideas & Objects.

Addressing the operational costs associated with the Preliminary Specification, the long-term maintenance of software development and community support is deemed non-material relative to the gross revenues of producers. An analysis comparing the development costs of the Preliminary Specification against the gross revenues of producers in 2021 illustrates that the operational and incremental software development costs post-commercial release are sustainable, amounting to a modest percentage of a single year's oil & gas revenues.

The financial strategy extends to encompassing the overhead costs within a manageable framework for both Flexible and Profitable Production Rights License owners, translating into an all-in cost that reflects these long-term support and development costs. This model ensures that the Profitable Production Rights Licenses do not adversely impact the service providers' fee structures or billing practices, yet indirectly influences the producers' access to service providers through the softwares access rights.

The foundational principle of the Profitable Production Right License is its role as a contract granting producers access to a suite of organizational capabilities aimed at securing profitable production. This right, inherently reconfigurable, detaches the risks typically associated with oil & gas property ownership, providing a transferable, assignable, and leasable avenue for operational flexibility.

Today’s producers' tactical management approach includes everything that comes into their minds. In the past few years we’ve seen $25 million in executive bonuses paid by Chesapeake the week prior to its bankruptcy declaration. It appears that bankruptcy is the means to deal with shareholders who have become too dissatisfied with management performance and is how producers can reshuffle the deck as it were. Profitable Production Rights Licenses circumvent these actions by having a clause that terminates the Profitable Production Rights License upon bankruptcy. Therefore freeing up the rights and maintaining value in the hands of the rights owner. Endorsing the purpose of Profitable Production Rights by separating ownership of oil & gas production from the right to process that production. This is done through organizations represented by Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas. The Licensees could then engage bankruptcy trustees to reinstate the Profitable Production Rights License. This would be on terms that maintain independent ownership of the Profitable Production Rights License separate and distinct from the means of production.

Who and why would anyone be interested in purchasing these Profitable Production Rights Licenses?

Answering the who and why anyone would be interested in acquiring Profitable Production Rights outlines a comprehensive strategy aimed at revolutionizing the oil & gas industry. Through the development of People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification, and building of the Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas software and services. This approach is designed to address the industry's long standing challenges with preservation, performance and profitability. Marking a decisive shift from traditional practices that have proven ineffective and unpopular among investors and stakeholders. Here’s a breakdown of the key elements and their significance:

Strategy for Industry Transformation

Introduction of Profitable Production Rights License: A core component of the strategy is to incentivize various stakeholders within the industry to adopt new practices that ensure profitability and sustainability. This involves shifting from traditional methods of operation to more innovative and accountable approaches, facilitated by the Profitable Production Rights License. This license serves not only as a revenue generation tool for People, Ideas & Objects but also as a catalyst for industry-wide change.

Target Audiences:

Investors: Highlighting the disillusionment of investors with past industry practices, the strategy aims to re-engage them by offering a stake in a transformed, dynamic, and profitable industry.

Oil & Gas Employees: Acknowledging the risks faced by individuals in supporting industry transformation, the strategy emphasizes confidentiality and the promise of a safer, more rewarding future.

Service Industry Representatives: By addressing the boom/bust cycle and advocating for a more stable and trustworthy relationship between producers and the service industry, the strategy aims to rebuild trust and ensure mutual profitability.

Producers (North American and Worldwide): Encouraging direct investment in Profitable Production Rights Licenses or engagement through lease agreements, this approach seeks to secure production rights and promote a performance-based culture across the global industry.

Our user community and their service provider organizations: Their participation in these software developments proves their motivation for profitability everywhere and always. A Profitable Production Rights License would provide them with an incremental value-add from what they seek to produce for the industry. Securing additional motivation to provide the most profitable means of oil & gas operations, everywhere and always. Our user community and service provider organizations are derived from the general oil & gas community. Having direct participation in the production process is attractive to these people.

Key Benefits and Outcomes

Disintermediation through Information Technology: Leveraging IT to streamline operations, reduce inefficiencies, and foster a more direct connection between production and profit.

Organizational Constructs to support a Cultural Shift: Proposing a reimagined structure for the industry that emphasizes dynamic, innovative, accountable, and profitable producers. Advocating for a wholesale cultural change within the industry to embrace new ways of working that prioritize profitability and sustainability.

Collaborative Effort: Recognizing the need for a collective industry effort to overcome the challenges and risks associated with transitioning to new operational models.

Conclusion

The strategy outlined is ambitious and seeks to address the multifaceted challenges facing the oil & gas industry by fundamentally rethinking how it operates. By focusing on innovation, accountability, and sustainability, and by engaging a broad spectrum of stakeholders through the Profitable Production Rights License, the approach aims to transform the industry into a more profitable, sustainable, and innovative sector. This transformation is not only necessary for the industry's survival but also for its ability to compete and thrive in a global market that increasingly values these attributes.

Friday, February 16, 2024

Disappointment, but no Surprise

 Launching a campaign to highlight the lack of production discipline in natural gas pricing couldn't have been more timely, given the recent fluctuations observed over the past few months. Prices have dramatically dropped from $3.34 (24.83 to 1) on October 11, 2023—the day the LNG issue was introduced on this blog—to $1.611 at market close today. The U.S. Energy Information Agency recently reported that natural gas storage volumes have exceeded their five-year average, yet there seems to be no acknowledgment of the problem among producer officers and directors, nor any recognition of the legitimacy of People, Ideas & Objects' Preliminary Specification as a viable solution.

On February 9, 2024, I highlighted on X that producers are now facing operational challenges due to their previous overexpansion of natural gas storage capacity—a decision made during a phase of myopic focus. After realizing these facilities were not profitable, they sold them off, losing control over natural gas storage, which has now become a significant barrier to addressing the pricing structure issues. 

As the producers' deadline expires today, stating that natural gas is trading at 50 to 1 might be seen as a minor detail. However, this structural pricing issue, rooted in decisions made since the mid-1980s, has caused market distortions that will require years of concerted effort to correct. Producers must begin to educate consumers about the real cost of energy. Today's utility bills, with natural gas cheaper than in the 1980s, are inflated with administrative, transportation, distribution fees, and various creatively labeled charges. Utilities may not be held accountable, but producers bear the brunt of consumer dissatisfaction, often resulting in a lack of transparent action from producer officers and directors.

The path forward for producers in the coming months remains unclear. People, Ideas & Objects also face challenges, compelled to pursue a difficult route. The failure to meet our deadline has taught us that no alternative exists but to follow through with our Profitable Production Rights plan, regardless of the obstacles. Previous attempts to find easier solutions have consistently failed. This failure, amidst a backdrop of a 50 to 1 natural gas price becoming the norm, underscores a profound misunderstanding of the opposition we face.


Hours, not Days

People, Ideas & Objects have set a precedent, demonstrating that producer officers and directors may deliberate on an innovative idea for a product or service for upwards of 33 years, effectively squandering trillions of dollars of other people's resources. When confronted with undeniable evidence of their inaction, they seem to require guidance to make the correct decisions. As of now, the decision to pick up our option on February 16, 2024, remains uncertain, with no communication received thus far.

The broader oil & gas economy in North America bears the scars of the missing $4 trillion we have documented. Shareholders, having been ignored, express their displeasure. While it's true that dividends are being distributed, this action hardly compensates for the substantial returns that should have been provided over decades or the capital raised through dubious earnings reports. The devastation inflicted on the service industry by officers and directors cannot be overlooked. The lack of a forward-looking plan or strategy leaves the industry ill-equipped for the challenges ahead, devoid of necessary resources.

The oil & gas industry's future hinges on its ability to innovate and meet the energy independence demands of the continent. Unfortunately, innovation has been stifled, historically thriving in the service sector but rarely within producer firms themselves. Innovators who dedicated their lives to bringing ideas to market find their efforts nullified as their intellectual property is co-opted and shared among competitors by the very officers and directors meant to lead.

A point arrives when it must be declared that enough is enough. The industry cannot sustain itself under this failed leadership. If, after midnight on February 16, 2024, producer officers and directors have failed to act on our option, it will be clear to all stakeholders that their conduct amounts to more than negligence; it is willful misconduct. What other conclusion can be drawn?

Software Can Fix That

 In an intriguing observation by Victor Davis Hanson, a Stanford PhD and Fellow at the Hoover Institute, he notes on his podcast, "The Victor Davis Hanson Show," around the 49:11 mark of “Looking for the Next President” episode. Discussing how societies historically have faltered when knowledge fails to be transmitted from one generation to the next. Citing examples from Rome, Byzantium, the Greek city-states, to contemporary South Africa and Zimbabwe, he underscores the essential role of knowledge in maintaining societal infrastructure and functionality, including crucial engineering knowledge for water treatment and electrical systems.

This reflection has a poignant relevance to the oil & gas industry, especially highlighted by the surprising lack of basic business understanding among producer officers and directors regarding LNG movement out of the Gulf of Mexico. The missed opportunities for capturing export prices in Asia and Europe, due to unfamiliarity with "Free on Board" and “Net Back Pricing” terminology, exemplify the critical need for generational knowledge transfer within the business sector as well.

The current generation entering the workforce, shaped by today’s education system, often exhibits a mindset focused solely on their immediate roles, missing the broader business understanding passed down from previous generations. This attitude risks losing invaluable business knowledge, such as Free on Board and Net Back Pricing, which are essential for the oil & gas industry's agenda.

To address this challenge, embedding persistent business methods and knowledge within the ERP software used in the industry is what People, Ideas & Objects have proposed. ERP software, by its nature, defines and supports organizational operations, encompassing current and potential future activities. Incorporating a defined software development capability, as People, Ideas & Objects has done, ensures that valuable historical business practices are preserved and integrated into future operations without losing sight of past wisdom. This approach not only secures the continuity of essential business knowledge but also fosters an environment where innovation is built upon the solid foundation of historical understanding.


Thursday, February 15, 2024

Considering Tomorrow's Deadline

 As of February 19, 2024, our deadline may have passed without any action taken by the producers' officers and directors to address their overproduction issues. These issues have led to a loss of over $4 trillion in natural gas revenues since July 2007. Does this inaction transition from negligence to willful misconduct, thereby opening the door to accusations of deliberate wrongdoing?

I am not a lawyer and I am not offering legal advice. I seek to provide a solution to what I believe are existential issues to the oil & gas industry.

In the context of oil and gas, particularly as discussed on platforms like 'Innovation in Oil and Gas' and 'The Preliminary Specification', understanding the distinction between negligence and willful misconduct is crucial. Negligence refers to the failure to take proper care in doing something, which in this case would be the management's inability to address overproduction. Willful misconduct, on the other hand, implies a conscious or intentional failure to perform a duty or a reckless disregard of the consequences of actions taken or not taken.

The transition from negligence to willful misconduct hinges on demonstrating a deliberate or recklessly indifferent attitude towards the necessity to manage production in line with economic and environmental sustainability. Such a transition is not just a matter of passing time but requires evidence that the officers and directors were aware of the consequences of their inaction and chose to proceed or fail to act despite this knowledge.

In the specific domain of oil and gas, where strategic decisions have profound implications not just economically but also environmentally, the principles outlined in 'The Preliminary Specification' emphasize the importance of proactive and responsible management. Highlighting the $4 trillion loss in natural gas revenues underscores the significant impact of such decisions and reinforces the argument for accountability at the executive level.


Update to Operations Management Module

 The following text has been added to the Operations Management module. Under the heading Swarm, and subheading Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas it now reads.

Swarm

Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas 

Upon completion of the development of the Preliminary Specification, we will deploy our Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas Software & Service. The configuration of the necessary network will be a significant component of our Cloud offering. Our Security & Access Control module aligns with People, Ideas & Objects' objective of delivering the right information to the right individuals at the right time and on the right device, regardless of their location. Since the Material Balance Report and the Operations Management module rely on data provided through the IoT via Swarm, it is crucial to ensure seamless connectivity.

To fulfill our value proposition, we have the capability to establish a dedicated Swarm-based network exclusively for Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas Software & Service. Swarm has included this option in their offering, enabling us to construct, launch, and deploy a global IoT network tailored to our requirements for a fee of $25 million. Considering the significance of safeguarding the data and information of North American producers, this investment represents a small sum for such critical infrastructure in terms of security and reliability.

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

A Fable

 The perception that I’ve always approached the work that I do here at People, Ideas & Objects is controversial and ripe with conflict against the officers and directors. I’ve identified them as the ones that have the authority, responsibility, are allegedly accountable and have control of the resources necessary to eliminate the issues we are faced with. However they have taken our position and seen it as a threat to their bureaucratic ways through the now classic disintermediation. Now that we are hours and minutes away from our deadline passing. I believe it will be difficult for the officers and directors to justify they are negligent and not willful of misconduct. Letting the one solution pass through their fingers, again, is difficult to justify why they would allow that. There appears to be, and possibly there is now evidence that, something larger is in play with them. 

There is a fable that I think puts their situation into context for me. One that maybe shows my actions as being more productive and healthier to their well being than what is assumed and believed. There is still time to meet the deadline, however, there is also the fact that all of this has been known by them for quite some time.

A baby bird, not yet ready for the harsh realities outside, finds itself caught in an unexpected snowstorm after its first flight from the nest. Overwhelmed and unprepared, the bird falls to the ground, its life threatened by the freezing cold. In this dire moment, a cow passes by and, in an act less elegant but life-saving, defecates on the bird. Buried in the pile, the bird quickly warms up, saved from the brink of death by this unlikely act. Feeling revived and grateful, the bird begins to chirp joyfully, drawing the attention of a crow. The crow, hearing the bird's chirps, quickly finds and eats the bird.

The moral of this story serves as a poignant reminder: the one who puts you in a difficult situation isn't necessarily your enemy, and the one who rescues you isn't automatically your friend. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of being cautious with whom you reveal your vulnerabilities or successes, as not everyone who appears to help has your best interests at heart.


Officers and Directors Ambitions?

 Late Sunday, it occurred to me that the officers and directors might be aiming for a breakthrough in the natural gas price structure, targeting a 50 to 1 ratio. Remarkably, by midweek, they've nearly achieved this, reaching a ratio of 48.19—a record in itself and representing an 87.55% erosion in the price vs the traditional heating value of natural gas. I must admit, their ability to come so close to this target in merely two and a half days is impressive. A hat tip is certainly due to the officers and directors for their 'stellar' work.

However, I might be misinterpreting their focus and perhaps overlooking a more grandiose ambition. In September 2023, the industry faced a staggering $46.4 billion in natural gas revenue losses under the then-highest average monthly price structure of 33.32 to 1. It seems $46.4 billion in losses for a single month didn't meet their expectations, hinting at even loftier goals for February 2024.

Regrettably, I find myself in the position of dampening the producers' high-flying ambitions. With oil prices at $87.09 in September 2023 compared to today's $77.05, achieving a 50 to 1 ratio under current conditions would result in total losses around $43.9 billion—falling short of their potential target. They've reached a juncture where the law of diminishing returns kicks in, suggesting a need to moderate their aspirations to a 50 to 1 ratio. Officers and directors, you're so close to this dubious milestone—perseverance is key, but perhaps it's time to reconsider the real costs of such 'achievements.’

People, Ideas & Objects deadline expires in two days and for all concerned, I have not received any contact or information from these ambitious officers and directors. Soon we’ll be able to say definitively it was officers and directors negligence or willful misconduct.


Trillions and Trillions

 People, Ideas & Objects offers a solution to the persistent issue of lack of production discipline, which has led to significant financial losses and broader economic devastation in the oil & gas sector. This problem can be traced back to a combination of accounting and organizational challenges that originated in the late 1970s, culminating in the first of many oil price collapses in July 1986. Since then, the industry has witnessed at least 12 other price collapses, alongside generally depressed prices that have materially impacted the sector over the years.

Throughout this period, North American producers have consistently failed to achieve what could objectively be considered profitable production. The prevailing accounting practices in the North American oil & gas industry are geared more towards valuation than performance, fostering a culture that is distorted and non-performant. This entrenched culture has shown a lack of capacity to grasp the nuances of People, Ideas & Objects' arguments, as outlined in the Preliminary Specification. A clear example of this is the recent missed opportunity to leverage the development of LNG export markets for enhanced natural gas pricing.

In 1985, Canada's natural gas production market and prices were deregulated. At that time, the regulated nominal price was over $3.75, which equates to approximately $7.30 in 2014 terms, considering inflation. Adjusting for inflation to today's value, the 1985 gas price would be around $9.26. This historical context highlights the profitability disconnect in today's market, where natural gas is sold at $1.61, benefiting producer officers and directors strategy of “muddle through” at the expense of the resource's true value. (Graph provided https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2015/market-snapshot-30th-anniversary-deregulation-canadas-natural-gas-prices.html)

During the same period, Alberta's natural gas industry was undergoing significant changes, not only due to deregulation but also from the necessity to build the infrastructure required to gather and commercialize natural gas. Previously, producers often flared natural gas, deeming it not worth the investment to capture. This practice, both environmentally harmful and economically wasteful, ceased around the time of deregulation. Consequently, there has been a longstanding neglect towards developing a natural gas market that truly captures and reflects the value of the resource.

Since May 1991, I have been advocating for change, marking more or less thirty-three years of persistent effort. Over these years, it's reasonable to estimate that the North American oil & gas industry has foregone several dozen trillion dollars in potential revenues due to persistent inefficiencies and a failure to adapt. Interestingly, this colossal loss seems to have had little impact on the comfort and positions of the industry's officers and directors, except for the inconvenience of having to contend with my calls for reform. 

This situation underscores a profound disconnect between the industry's leadership and the urgent need for systemic change. While the financial losses are staggering, they have not sufficiently motivated those in power to reconsider their approaches or engage with innovative solutions that could revitalize the industry. Instead, the status quo is preserved, safeguarding the interests of a select few at the expense of broader economic and environmental well-being.

It's Personal

 As we enter February 2024, the looming deadline of the 16th should now be coming into sharper focus for North American oil & gas producers. Historically, producers have managed to evade action by claiming 'they have it under control' whenever confronted with the necessity of production discipline. Such assurances have been frequently given, yet we've chronicled a plethora of excuses, blame-shifting, and what we term 'viable scapegoats' utilized by producers over the years. It would be easy to conclude that, in their view, officers and directors are never at fault.

However, the current situation, with its deadline of February 16th, introduces a distinct challenge unlike any they have previously encountered. The unique aspect of this scenario lies in the fact that the repercussions of continued inaction will directly impact the personal financial resources of the officers and directors. Whether this constitutes Willful Misconduct, Negligence, or something in-between is beyond my expertise to judge, as I am not a lawyer. My role is to offer solutions and highlight the issues and their significant impacts, such as the known $4 trillion loss in natural gas revenue they've contributed to.

Yet, perhaps an implied admission of 'having it under control' by the officers and directors might indeed be the most fitting response. Could it signify an acknowledgment of their responsibility and a willingness to surrender their assets to their shareholders?

We elaborate on our February 16, 2024 Option in the 'This One's Nuclear, Part IV' blog post dated January 17, 2024.