The Mouse that Roared
We are now faced with officers and directors returning from their clean energy adventures. Maintaining their story line that shale remains uncommercial and their only hope is to consolidate their operations into massive bureaucracies that only Stalin and Lenin could appreciate. This is done in complete harmony throughout the industry. This is the next "thing" that all producers want to participate in spontaneously and unanimously. Why sit down and determine what, how and why their difficulties came about, and expend the substantial mental effort necessary to resolve industry issues? Instead, consolidation serves as today’s plug-in excuse? That only size can overcome shale difficulties is a specious and unsubstantiated claim. No doubt this meme will take another three years to shake out and prove false. Endorsing what we can all plainly see and agree with will be another failure. The officers and directors for that three-year period will be fine and they thank you for asking. What I believe is really happening is the surreptitious exit of industry leadership from the scene.
When a firm faces an untenable situation beyond its individual issues. In this instance oil & gas producers' issues include:
- A legacy, a culture and an inability to comprehend chronic and systemic unprofitability and its associated fallout.
- Producers don't know where their operations generate profits or losses. Have organizations that have been led to believe that any action taken by them has been profitable. Creating a distinct lack of competitive and commercial operations throughout the industry.
- Capital structures, as of 2023, have been unsupported for eight years.
- Producers' actions have decimated service industry capital structures. Only direct, sustained and long-term philanthropic efforts by producer firms to rebuild the service industry will provide them with what they need. Using the "you broke it, you fixed it" strategy, service industry representatives believe producers will view it as a valuable resource if they have some "skin in the game." In addition, it was shameful for producers to fool the service industry. The service industry now resolves they won't be fooled again.
- North American oil & gas management lacks accountability. In terms of both the development and use of its financial reporting and ERP systems.
- Shale-based reservoir momentum is declining due to producer officers and directors' inaction to address the issues identified and resolved in our 2012 publication, the Preliminary Specification.
- Service industry capacity is at 30% of its peak and declining rapidly. Additionally producer working capital, an issue People, Ideas & Objects identified in 2015 has now become a culturally ingrained issue and an industry-wide, locked-down mindset.
- Producer organizations have atrophied internally such that the seven to ten year exploration and development "work-in-progress" has been harshly cannibalized for "cost cutting" survival. "Ramping up" won’t happen soon.
- Consolidation provides leadership with a convenient way to exit their posts. Ensuring they will not be associated with this imminent catastrophe they’ve authored.
Since August 2003, officers and directors have ignored our solution. What do they do now? How do they resolve a looming industry collapse of the most critical resource provided to the most powerful economy ever known to man? During a war with several theaters involved, including the greatest oil exporting countries? Does muddling through seem like a wise strategy? Officers and directors are well compensated during their tenure in the industry. It’s widely understood that Information Technology and other industries are doing well. Their management skills could find greener pastures there.
I have certainly engaged in an aggravating dialog with North American producers' officers and directors. To suggest that the Preliminary Specification may have been considered if my message was not so negative and derogatory is a possibility. However, that was not the attitude of those I saw on the other side of this debate. They're used to criticism of their inaction and performance. I chose the Preliminary Specification as my route. And I find it difficult to understand how anyone would not be angry and frustrated by the unnecessary situation we’re in? With trillions of dollars of valuable resources wasted, and many more trillions of dollars to be wasted, a solution to remedy their particular situation has always been available. For them to choose the Preliminary Specification, and more importantly to do so now, would demand a willing acceptance and admission of their culpability in creating this catastrophe.
Professor Richard Langlois makes a pertinent point regarding capitalism and how officers and directors drive consolidation in oil & gas. From his recent book. “The Corporation and the Twentieth Century: The History of American Business Enterprise.”
"Although it came to be a defining theme of the postwar period, it was not, as we have seen, a novel contention that a new class of organizational operatives would soon supplant—or indeed had already supplanted—the capitalist, the entrepreneur, or even the individual. At the back of most formulations of this idea lay the work of Veblen and of Berle and Means, from the 1920s or earlier. Many expressions of the thesis emerged during the Depression and the war, when the market seemed to have failed and enterprise had been commandeered for the needs of the military. In The Folklore of Capitalism in 1937, Thurman Arnold held that “we can observe the rise of a new class of engineers, salesmen, minor executives, and social workers—all engaged in actually running the country’s temporal affairs.” Although for the moment bourgeois traders still “possessed the symbols of power,” it was in fact the “great class of employees, working for salaries, which distributes the goods of the world.” The new class was already “showing signs of developing a creed of its own and a set of heroes.”427
The power of heroism as a symbol was at the heart of the century’s most sophisticated musing on the disappearance of bourgeois entrepreneurship, that of Joseph Schumpeter. In Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, written during the worst years of the war, Schumpeter argued that because of the “progressive rationalization” of bourgeois society, innovation was becoming mechanized.428 It went without saying that salaried functionaries could administer whatever pre-existing economic structures were handed to them. But in the past, innovation—and with it economic growth—was not a matter of administration. Because of the limits to knowledge and the imperfect understanding of the physical and economic world in earlier times, innovation demanded a bold leap into the unknown. The function of the entrepreneur was thus a cognitive one: to appraise the possibilities and make that leap. But, said Schumpeter, the skepticism, critical rationality, and unrelenting curiosity of bourgeois society had created a new world in which science, including the science of administration, is able to foresee all the possibilities involved in innovation and to plan accordingly.429 Leaps are no longer necessary, and the cognitive function of the entrepreneur has disappeared.
When the entrepreneur disappears, so too will bourgeois society. The old family capitalists, not to mention captains of industry like Carnegie, Rockefeller, and Ford, were heroes whose visible role in generating economic growth worked to legitimize bourgeois capitalism. But scientific rationalization, provided by the bourgeoisie themselves, meant that golden eggs would now remain forthcoming even after the goose was cooked and eaten. Without the entrepreneur to provide cultural legitimacy for the bourgeoisie, control will indeed pass inevitably into the hands of the new class envisioned by Arnold. In Schumpeter’s formulation, it will indeed pass inevitably into the hands of the new class envisioned by Arnold. In Schumpeter’s formulation, it will be intellectuals and government bureaucrats who will come to administer a not so brave new world of colorless state socialism.
Writing at about the same time, though with none of Schumpeter’s wry nuance, James Burnham made a similar forecast in "The Managerial Revolution.” For Burnham, the transition from a capitalist society to a managerial society “is already well underway.” Unlike Veblen, Burnham did not see managers as engineers or technicians; they are a level above: the knowledge workers whose function is guiding, administering, managing, organizing the process of production.” Once again, the crucial piece of evidence for the rise of the managerial class is the assumed separation of ownership from control. Because capitalists are no longer also managers at a day to day level it is self-evident that capitalism is doomed. The entrepreneur and the captain of industry are most certainly dead. The chance to build up vast aggregates of wealth of the kind held by the big bourgeois families no longer exists under the conditions of contemporary capitalism." (Richard N. Langlois, The Corporation and the Twentieth Century) p. 390.
As Professor Langlois discusses later and in many of his papers, this was the case during the latter decades of the 20th century. However, with Information Technology, and most specifically ERP systems, providing the means to disintermediate organizations and industries we may be seeing the end of a “managerial revolution.” And if not for the 10 - 25 thousand man hours of mechanical leverage from one barrel of oil equivalent, and as Professor Alfred Chandler suggests coal being developed early in their tenure, how effective and efficient was the “managerial revolution” for the 20th century corporation?
It is therefore reasonable to assume that what oil & gas is facing is a result of the failure of the “Managerial Revolution” and its legacy of bureaucracy, inactivity and a lethargic pace.
One of the motivating factors for North American producers pursuing clean energy was their belief that shale would never be commercial. After discovering there was no real support for their clean energy ventures, they returned and were forced to follow the trend. If shale is economically unprofitable, they can no longer justify any other frontier in oil & gas. Consolidation is the only path forward. Consolidation accurately reflects the fierce opposition to everything People, Ideas & Objects provides. Such as a decentralized entrepreneurial market for oil & gas industry administrative and accounting resources.
Officers and directors need a reasonable way to escape their bulging closet full of skeletons, no scratch that, their bulging annex full of skeletons. The industry as it stands today is untenable. Critically, its investors deemed it unworthy of further support in 2015. It is the most damning and damaging event shareholders can assess against management. In most instances this is the precursor to an organization's death. With oil & gas being a capital intensive industry, those prior capital investments generate adequate cash flows that sustain the bureaucracy for years to come. However, if cash flows are not managed properly, they will wither and disappear along with the firm's ability to compete and function.
Shell, Exxon, Chevron, and BP are hoping to resolve the issues and provide for everyone involved. For the short term anyway. Through their leadership, they can fill the void left by those who created the independent producer era. Industry consolidation is not justified or proven. As with all “actions” in this industry, it is done suddenly, seemingly without forethought or justification from a business point of view. This is all with the declared benefit of a billion dollars in annual cost savings here and there. Why, how are these meager tokens, however derived, designed to aid the industry and specifically any of the wasteful trillion dollar issues identified at the beginning of this post? Stating the issue as that without size, independents cannot approach shale, what are their underlying assumptions in making such claims?
Observing the rise of independents in the late 1970s and early 1980s. It is expected that Exxon and Chevron will soon be without entrepreneurial talent. From the leadership gap caused by consolidation, a new independent era awaits. Creating the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas producers we need for the next 25 years. All they’ll need is the means to manage the operation such as the Preliminary Specification. To show Exxon and Chevron how the oil & gas industry is operated and developed profitably. Maybe we’ll be able to thank the consolidators for the service they'll provide in the short term. Transferring oil & gas assets at today’s valuation, running their value into the ground and selling them to future oil & gas entrepreneurs at fire sale prices.
Understanding the existential issues at play in North American oil & gas. Two solutions are offered. It is the consolidated centralized bureaucracy that created these issues over four decades. Who had the opportunity to resolve their issues over the past decade but did nothing about them. Will they be able to deal with the speed and pace of change in their business, meet society's demands? Or is it the upstart decentralized solution of People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and their service providers that provides the most dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas producers with the real value generating choices to be made? People in oil & gas will be torn between these two options in terms of their individual makeup. As Professor Langlois noted in the reference above. There are those who find the corporation an ideal environment. And they account for the majority. There are also those who will form the next industry leadership. Creative destruction is in the air. We have an industry to build.