OCI Partnership Accounting, Part VI
Our Decentralized Production Model & Price Maker Strategy
When we consider the next aspect of this change, our decentralized production model, this assures that People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers offer oil & gas producers the most profitable means of oil & gas operation, everywhere and always. What we've experienced over the past four decades in North American oil & gas is unique in all organizations and of all business history. Although we learned during the great depression the economic consequences of overproduction, and experienced its consequences in oil & gas since the 1980s, no one seems to have explained it to the North American producer. Oil & gas overproduction in North America has been systemic and chronic throughout the producer population and will continue to be without an effective means and method of production discipline being imposed. The history over this period is stark and clear. In the late 1970s the SEC imposed its Full Cost Accounting and associated Ceiling Test requirements on producers trading shares in the American market. These requirements allowed producers to record costs in property, plant and equipment as assets up to the limit of the present value of their independently evaluated petroleum reserves. This allowed an unnecessary flexibility in the financial statements that created distortions since that time. Simply, shifting the accounting from an evaluation of performance to one of value, hence the producer's foolish objective of “building balance sheets” etc came about. This is the mindset of our good friends, the producer officers and directors. What we know of business is that overreported asset valuations lead to commensurate amounts of overreported profitability. Leading investors to rush in to capture those profits and hence a process of overinvestment begins. Overinvestment in the productive capacity of the oil & gas producers leads to overproduction of commodities that are subject to the economic price maker principles and characteristics.
It is this reason that has caused the repeated and systemic collapses of commodity prices throughout this past four decade period. The first commodity price collapse that we can document was during the summer of 1986 when $10 oil prices decimated the industry for the better part of a decade. This is counter to the cultural belief that oil & gas commodities are price takers. These definitions are from investopedia.com
Price maker
A price maker is a monopoly or a firm within monopolistic competition that has the power to influence the price it charges as the good it produces does not have perfect substitutes. A price maker that is a firm within monopolistic competition produces goods that are differentiated in some way from its competitors' products. This kind of price maker is also a profit-maximizer as it will increase output only as long as its marginal revenue is greater than its marginal cost, so in other words, as long as it's producing a profit.
Price taker
A price-taker is an individual or company that must accept prevailing prices in a market, lacking the market share to influence market price on its own. All economic participants are considered to be price-takers in a market of perfect competition, or one in which all companies sell an identical product, there are no barriers to entry or exit, every company has a relatively small market share, and all buyers have full information of the market. This holds true for producers and consumers of goods and services and for buyers and sellers in debt and equity markets.
As evidence supporting People, Ideas & Objects claim of price taker characteristics I make the following argument in our User Community Vision. Officers and directors interpret substitutes to be; if they don’t produce others will, therefore substitution is everywhere. This is not what substitution means. Does it mean that Elon Musk could make it to Mars if he replaced rocket fuel with a hydro dam? Or could we use wind energy to lubricate our crankcase? How about storing nuclear fuel rods in the convenience of a jerry can as you travel outdoors this weekend. And if you’d be able to return alive from your weekend adventure you might make it back to the office in that new solar panel, or pine bark suit you just bought. Alternatively, if bottled water ceased to be produced people would switch to soft drinks, tap water, juice or other substitutes. Any overproduction of bottled water would see inventories swell and the price remain the same, as would the price of the last bottle of water found anywhere in the world.
The connotation of the economic term price maker has caused producer officers and directors to conclude this is collusion. We argue otherwise when the Preliminary Specification and specifically this partnership accounting module, uses the Joint Operating Committee and will produce detailed, actual, factual financial statements for each property. Producer firms will definitively know the “real” profitability of each of their properties. A task that is not done today and more importantly can not be done today. And therefore producers will independently decide to shut-in their unprofitable properties to ensure they attain the highest level of corporate profitability. Invoking the necessary industry wide production discipline. Saving their petroleum reserves for a time when they can be produced profitably. Keeping their production and inventory costs lower by not incurring the costs of unnecessarily producing and storing unprofitable production. Ensure their reserves don’t have to recover the incremental costs of their prior losses as additional earned profits. And most importantly ensure that the marginal production is removed from the commodity markets allowing them to find their marginal price.
While the property is shut-in the producer can apply their innovativeness, another Organization Construct of the Preliminary Specification, to return the property back to profitable production as soon as possible. People, Ideas & Objects and our user community are the appropriate business approach to the chronic and systemic overproduction of oil & gas and the persistent obtuseness of the producer officers and directors, not collusion as they accuse us. Profitable operations in a capitalist society do not necessarily denote collusion. Without “real” profitability there is only waste and deterioration as we’ve experienced these past decades. Without investors and bankers who were duped by these specious financial statements, there was no sustainable value generated, only destroyed.
The definition of collusion is provided by Wikipedia.
In the study of economics and market competition, collusion takes place within an industry when rival companies cooperate for their mutual benefit. Collusion most often takes place within the market structure of oligopoly, where the decision of a few firms to collude can significantly impact the market as a whole. Cartels are a special case of explicit collusion. Collusion which is overt, on the other hand, is known as tacit collusion, and is legal.
By definition then the Preliminary Specification price maker strategy may fall under the category of overt or tacit collusion. Which is legal. Each of the producer firms will be making independent business decisions of whether or not to produce at each and every one of the many properties that they own. Those decisions will be based on the actual, factual accounting that provides the information for that decision. The decision is to make a profit, if the property is shut-in due to unprofitability it will incur a null operation, no profit but also no loss. Achieved when the Preliminary Specification has made all of the producers costs variable based on profitable production. The decision to avoid a loss of corporate financial resources and assets, in the form of petroleum reserves, when producing an unprofitable property at a price that does not cover the marginal cost, in the long term perspective of marginal cost, (as per Wikipedia “analysis is segregated into short and long-run cases, so that, over the longest run, all costs become marginal,”) is a rational business decision, not collusion. This also provides, for the first time in the history of the industry, the ability for producers to indirectly control their overhead costs based on their profitable production profile.
The following graph was provided by Les Borodovsky from @SoberLook. What this graph is representing is the status quo perception of costs and how management of production is handled in oil & gas.
The perception of the producer officers and directors is that their total costs of each barrel of oil produced in the various shale formations is in the range of $48 to $54. The operating and royalty cost of each barrel varies between $28 and $37. I would point out the $20 to $23 in capital costs are based on an allocation of their capital costs across the entire reserves of the property. We’ve argued that this allocation is unreasonable in a capital market where the demands for the performance of capital are far greater than what can be achieved when a producer is cycling their cash through their investments in a manner that retrieves their investment over several decades or more, or even if at all. This is further aggravated when shale exposes prolific reserves, however demands substantial incremental capital to offset shales inherent steep decline curves in order to maintain deliverability.
As an alternative, People, Ideas & Objects recommend that producers retire their capital costs within the first 30 months of the properties life to provide for the reuse of the previously invested cash. In turn providing them with the means to meet their internal demands for future capital expenditures, shareholder dividends and bank debt repayments, and better match the rapid decline rates experienced in shale in order to compete on North American capital markets. This can only be done if the producer is selling their commodities at a price that is above their break even point which considers an appropriate accounting of the actual, factual costs of exploration and production. And to reuse their cash repeatedly on this basis and not every second or third decade.
This graph reflects the Well Break Even and Shut-in prices of the producers current policy position. At any point, and as long as the commodity price covered the operating costs, the property would continue to produce regardless of the impact on capital costs. If a dollar of capital costs was being returned, or one dollar above the shut-in price, that would enable the production of the property to continue. Only at the point in time where the commodity price dropped below the operating costs would the producer allegedly shut-in their production. This is a fundamental misinterpretation of the term break even, it is the reason the industry is in the difficulty that it’s in and why the producers have continued to lose money for the past four decades. Break even is not what is being interpreted here. What in fact the producer is assuming is that as long as there is cash flow above the operating costs then they’re making money in their opinion and will continue to produce. What they’re stating is they may not be breaking even, and as a result over the long term, stranding unrecovered and unrecoverable capital costs in abandoned properties is acceptable and commonplace.
What People, Ideas & Objects provide in our Preliminary Specification, if we could assume the accuracy of this graph numbers, is the point at which the property would be shut-in would be at the breakeven point and below. (Note that our breakeven point would be higher due to the competitive recognition of capital over a thirty month period.) The reason for this being the production discipline gained through knowing that producing any property unprofitably only dilutes the producers corporate profits. Producing below the breakeven point is the point where unprofitability begins. Producing below the breakeven point for one producer, in an industry who’s commodities are price makers, will have the effect where the price of the commodities will be dropped below the breakeven price everywhere for all producers. When all producers continually produce below the breakeven price for four decades it exhausts the value from the industry on an annual and wholesale basis. Which I believe occurred some time in the 1990s and since then, times were only “good” when investors were willing.
To avoid the allegation of collusion officers and directors would have us believe that they were operating the industry within the law. Losses of catastrophic proportions have been realized, displacing and disrupting the financial resources of each and every producer over the long term. Today the financial, operational and political frameworks of the industry are in tatters. This is considered normal course business operations for the officers and directors. Imposing the destruction of their firm's assets, the capacity and capabilities of the oil & gas and service industries is the price that they believed needed to be paid as a consequence of its acceptance of a “boom / bust” business by way of “muddle through.” This is unnecessary and unacceptable when the Preliminary Specification is available to operate the oil & gas business as a business.
The inverse situation is provided by the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production models price maker strategy. A contrast to the “muddle through” times we have found ourselves in during thirty one of the past thirty seven years since the July 1986 oil price crash in North America. In an environment where the Preliminary Specification will be operational, higher commodity prices would bring about production volumes that would meet the threshold of profitability and therefore previously shut-in properties would return to production. The enhanced commodity prices, everywhere and always, would allocate the necessary financial resources to search for innovative means for exploration and production. Providing the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable North American producer with the most profitable means of oil & gas operations.
The organizational objective is to satisfy the consumer demand for energy on the basis of abundant, affordable, reliable and profitable energy. The value proposition of a barrel of oil equivalent is in the range of 10 to 25 thousand man hours of equivalent mechanical leverage. Going without oil & gas is not possible in the most advanced society with the most productive economy. The oil & gas producers value proposition to their consumers is therefore by far the most substantial of any other business.
People, Ideas & Objects feel that oil & gas has a unique characteristic that needs to be recognized and adhered to. These commodities are valuable and limited in the long run. How do we ensure that we can prove to future generations that we used our share of these resources appropriately. The first way is to show that all of them were produced profitably everywhere and always. And secondly by passing along a profitable, viable, efficient and effective oil & gas and service industry. To do otherwise would be unwise and unjustified. Most of all it is unnecessary when the commodities follow the principles of price makers. Consumers are aware that the only effective way that they’re going to have secure, reliable and affordable energy independence in North America is when producers are profitable. Why this hasn’t been done is a question that needs to be answered by those that have not done this, and had the alternative in the form of the Preliminary Specification available in hand since at least 2012.
Yet, just as producers were forced to shut-in production as a result of almost negative $40 oil prices and refineries refusing to accept feedstock, they would find compelling reasons to return any property that contained shut-in production back on production in order to satisfy consumer demand and to do so profitably. Operating the primary industry of oil & gas profitably, everywhere and always, will enable them to maintain the capacities and capabilities of the greater oil & gas industrial economy. That People, Ideas & Objects were subjected to abuse and punishment for this position and other content contained within the Preliminary Specification is evidence that officers and directors knew better, that our alternative was available and it was refused as it disintermediated the officers and directors method of management and personal compensation, they’ll now need to live with their legacy of inaction.
What officers and directors were able to do was run the entire oil & gas industrial complex into the ground over these past four decades and completely destroy a large percentage of the service industries industrial capacity, eliminating that industry's capital structures and any faith, trust or goodwill between them. Go find a willing drilling rig investor or banker of a few years ago who subsequently saw the drilling rig they invested in cut up for scrap metal while producer officers and directors whistled their uncaring and inconsiderate tune of “muddle through.” It is now incumbent upon the producers to provide the financial resources to rebuild the service industry. And do so on a philanthropic basis. The rule is “producers broke it, the producers need to fix it.” Producers used and abused the service industry and now they’ll be needing to provide the money and backbone involved in the rebuilding effort, otherwise they’ll only use and abuse the service industry after they’ve rebuilt it again. Maybe when producers have had to rebuild the service industry themselves, putting some skin in the game, they’ll respect it.
With the costs associated in exploration and production, and particularly shale reserves it's no surprise that producers have consumed the cash that is generated and any that is provided from investors and bankers. What is surprising is that producers have done nothing over this period to mitigate the overproduction that has caused the decline in pricing, subsequent financial losses, destruction of the producers reserves and greater oil & gas industrial capacity. And here we find the motivation as to why these methods continue.
The reason for this chronic overproduction is the producers have to generate the revenues to cover the out of pocket costs of the overheads they incur in the “high throughput production” model they employ. This model has these overhead costs of the firm being incurred whether there’s production or not, and if any percentage of their properties are shut-in it makes their operation a high cost operation at any level of production. At lower production volumes, it skews their earnings and overhead costs appear out of place. Therefore this behavior of producing at capacity should be expected to continue on both the oil & gas sides of the business. Even in spite of significant financial loss or the inability to meet market demands.
Although most producers report overhead costs of less than 2% in almost all instances this is not representative of the situation. We believe based on our experience that overhead costs range between 10% and 20% of revenues. These itemized amounts are never detailed or discussed in the financial statements of producers. If they were itemized the disproportionate and creative levels of executive compensation would be evident. Overhead costs are capitalized across the industry in the region of 85% to avoid the necessary accountability for these costs. Avoidance of accountability is the motivation for doing so, the consequences of these actions are as follows, and it should be noted People, Ideas & Objects identified this anomaly in excess of a decade ago. Yet nothing was done.
When all of the overhead is capitalized to the extent that it is in oil & gas it creates that giant sucking sound around the producers bank. Overhead in most businesses is recognized and passed to the consumers of the firm's products. In oil & gas it is capitalized. Therefore the “cash float” that all businesses have to have in order to finance these costs doesn’t function or even exist when overhead is capitalized. Producer cash is essentially stored on the balance sheet for decades and is passed on to the consumer at some point. When that will be remains a mystery. The industry phenomenon of a working capital deficiency was traditionally filled by the astute budget manager providing the amount of next year's capital expenditures in the prospectus. Without support for the capital structure, no real profitability earned and fundamentally inadequate revenues generated as a result of the decades long industry wide overproduction, we should understand the quality cash management skills being applied in the industry. When the business is a spending machine, what would you expect?
Our Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model is proposed and enables the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas producer to implement our price maker strategy. This decentralized production model has been defined by Professor Richard N. Langlois in his book The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism: Schumpeter, Chandler and the New Economy.
In a world of decentralized production, most costs are variable costs; so, when variations or interruptions in product flow interfere with output, costs decline more or less in line with revenues. But when high-throughput production is accomplished by means of high-fixed-cost machinery and organization, variations and interruptions leave significant overheads uncovered. p. 58.
Production discipline is attained through this process when the producer realizes that their maximum profitability is obtained through producing only profitable production everywhere and always. Therefore producers are incentivized to adhere to the principles of the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production models price maker strategy. Just as all businesses in the capitalist system follow these principles since the great depression of 1929. The individual decisions of each oil & gas producer, based on an actual, factual accounting of the profitability of the property, will determine if the property produces. That is how the oil & gas industry needs to deal with any low commodity price situation that it occasionally finds itself in.
As properties begin to lose money in a period of declining prices, incremental properties are shut-in each month as they too may become unprofitable. The inverse of this is also relevant when commodity prices rise, producers will be raising production volumes when they attain profitability from higher prices and return their shut-in properties to the market. Shale based reserves will always overwhelm the oil & gas commodity markets with flush production and deliverability that are driven by shale's prolific nature. Production discipline based on profitability can only be achieved through the reorganization of the industry and producers based on the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model. Where overhead costs are made variable and producers are using the facility we’re building in the form of our Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & gas software and service. Which enables our price maker strategy to provide for the producers and industries profitability and in turn ensures consumers are always provided with an abundant, affordable, reliable yet profitable source of energy.
The effectiveness of our method is reflected in our logic. Producer profitability is maximized when losses on properties no longer dilute profitable properties profits. Reserves are held for a time when they can be produced profitably. And those reserves costs will not have to carry the incremental costs of any losses that would have occurred if the property continued to produce unprofitably. Keeping the oil & gas as reserves reduces the producers costs of production and storage of the excess, unprofitable production. Commodity markets find the marginal cost when unprofitable production is removed from the marketplace. Marginal prices for not just the unprofitable production but all production. While shut-in any unprofitable properties will form the producers work-in-progress where they can innovatively approach methods of raising production volumes, reducing costs or expanding reserves. Using profitability is the only fair and reasonable method of invoking production discipline. If it’s profitable it produces.
It should be noted here that the Preliminary Specifications service providers will provide a standard, objective method of accounting and process management. Therefore any producer that finds a property is unprofitable, it will know that shutting it in is the most effective remedy as the assessment of unprofitability is the same standard and objective assessment that all other properties were evaluated under. The decentralized production model provides the financial resources necessary to ensure a prosperous industry controls itself as independent businesses. It is a method of determining the current replacement cost of oil & gas, as price makers only bring on new production when it is profitable. The method used today, capital discipline is a dull, blunt instrument that has proven time and again to be completely ineffective. By definition it is the willing destruction of productive capacity. Due to the decentralized production model and industry reorganization to the Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas software and service. Overhead is only incurred when production is profitable. Overhead is variable based on profitable production and is not incurred if the property is shut-in. Therefore all overhead costs are recovered in the current period when they’re priced in commodity sales. Producers will therefore be able to indirectly control their overhead costs.