OCI RFP Discussion, Part II
Radical Surgery vs. the Band Aid Approach
I trust my interpretation and perspective on oil & gas and its resolution are not misconstrued. It would be foolish and naive for anyone to believe that the human nature of self-interested individuals would reach so far as to define a scheme such as what I’ve accused producer officers and directors of. That’s not at issue, in my opinion. What is at issue is the unchecked pursuit of self interest by officers and directors has traveled too far along the scale of what is acceptable. And this is measured in the form of a status quo pursuit of damaging and destructive management methods. Due to its wide scope of effects, I find the damage itself to be unacceptable, as well as the fact that only the officers and directors have benefited financially from it. Not that I believe this is some anomaly of human nature or behavior. The structure of our user community and their service providers, indeed the entire sub-industry as I call this environment necessary to resolve this issue, is structured around self interest as the motivation to get things done. The key difference is our motivation is to provide for the most profitable means of oil & gas operations. The risks associated with this damage are too extreme to continue. Each barrel of oil contains the equivalent of 10 to 25 thousand man hours of equivalent mechanical labor. An amount of labor 27 to 68 times today's total population from today’s global production. An irreplaceable resource that powers our economy, life and civilization. It is my opinion that some things are better left within a range of acceptable standards and tolerated levels.
Oil & gas producers are dealing with standard business issues when overcapitalization of this scale is undertaken. It’s no mystery that we’ve traveled down this road. Officers and directors would have known this too. Their problem is that they’re culpable and liable even if they were unaware. As they were well aware of People, Ideas & Objects et al’s solution which we’ve been offering in the form of the Preliminary Specification for the past decade. In addition, they had a specific request almost a decade ago from their investors to upgrade to Tier 1 ERP systems. A history that reflects a risk that any further loss of faith (by consumers) in their administration would be costly. An administration with that deer in the headlights look, incapable of action, heading into the most difficult energy generation mankind’s ever known. Singing the praises of solar and wind. Ours is not the solution to this difficulty in the short term and that is the reason we began this process so long ago. We can now only restore the industry from what’s left.
Therefore the question becomes what is the resolution? Do we resolve this through radical surgery to save the patient? Or will a bandage and a slap on the back do? What’s the diagnosis? Is there an issue? Everyone has an opinion, and People, Ideas & Objects et al's are as follows. It is the 2015s that signal failure and the subsequent refusal of investors to support the capital structures of industry participants that mark this stage. Banks think similarly. An inability to conduct the appropriate level of business activity and diminishing capabilities. This is in the field through the service industry and through internal recruitment of earth science and engineering professionals. Maintaining production deliverability in this constrained environment is the next “potential” shoe to drop. As serious as each of these issues is, the one that is the root cause of all of them is the obstinate, persistent and failing strategy of “muddle through.” Nothing’s been done to deal with these when they were timely.
We’ll now discuss why a wholesale rebuild of the industry brick by brick and stick by stick will be necessary.
Culture Shock
- Clean energy is not the message to be sending throughout the oil & gas and service industries. How can we leave oil & gas in the hands of those who don’t believe in shale's future, who have not safeguarded their investors' assets and diverted funds to unrelated industries that are commercially unproven and done so in unauthorized fashion?
- Software defines and supports the organizational structure of the producer firm, but also constrains it. In consideration should those who were responsible for this damage be the decision makers as to which ERP system to use? SAP is offering the role of a “blind sleepwalking agent of whomever will feed them.”
- Faith, trust and goodwill has been destroyed throughout the greater oil & gas economy. The need for producers to actively participate in rebuilding these is a necessity. Participate actively in the form of financial philanthropy. Producers broke it, Producers will need to fix it. Only then will they begin to respect what others built and not break it again. A.k.a. skin in the game. Capacities and capabilities are severely deprecated.
- A culture that is unaware of the need to earn profits, but also how to do so. A culture that is capable of spending money and can not achieve the higher level performance trajectory necessary to qualify as profitable operations. A culture that is fundamentally unaware of the difference or the point of this argument.
- A culture that assumed “investors” supplied all the cash needed. One that asked for more money from investors while at the same time, when asked about the money raised two years ago, stated “that’s history and just accounting!” And “profits don’t matter.” Unaccountability is a subculture.
- What happens when the industry sees an initiative such as People, Ideas & Objects snuffed out for political reasons? What impact will be realized by those working throughout the greater oil & gas economy? Who will step up with any initiative on behalf of the oil & gas economy when the culture of “muddle through” is seen as permanent and intractable? This is not what an innovative industry needs.
These are just the highlights that come to mind at the moment. I like to think of myself as rational. Only a fool would enter a situation like this and attempt to resolve the issues this culture produces by working with this culture. This culture would consume anyone who tried. It would be an attempted mosquito bite where the mosquito's demise was certain.
We detailed how layoffs have cannibalized the internal processes from year 1,2,3… 8 of the producers due to the 2015 investor strike and coincidental eight-year working capital crisis. The same applies to the service industry. Therefore these processes need to be rebuilt and provide the opportunity to do so without this culture attached in any way. One that starts with year 1 of the process from the Preliminary Specification vision. We provide the most profitable means of oil & gas operations everywhere and always. Rebuilding the industry and infrastructure on the basis of a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable producer, industry and service industry, brick by brick and stick by stick. The way I look at what the industry consists of today isn’t worth keeping. Our opportunity lies in the fact that we don’t have to scrap it. Officers and directors scrapped it for us. They can rebuild it with SAP’s blind, sleepwalking agents and their vision of clean energy. Or investors can be specific about their demand for Tier 1 ERP systems and choose the oil & gas industry they desire. This is done by selecting People, Ideas & Objects, our user community, their service provider organizations and Oracle Cloud ERP.
As a result of the state of "muddle through," the industry has suffered far more than producers, officers, and directors may realize. Assuming the Preliminary Specification is approved. It won’t be due to which Tier 1 ERP provider they’ve chosen. I’d therefore question what role they’d have in continuing. Why should they continue and how ideally to leave the place in a position to be rebuilt? That's naive of me, I know.
Investors Will Decide
People, Ideas & Objects have identified a threat that we feel is terminal to our existence as an operational software organization. In this threat, the officers and directors of the producer firms intend to implement an SAP configuration of the producers' own design. Choosing an ERP system from Tier 1 providers is an oil and gas producer's right and a specific requirement of their investors. It would be bold and audacious for me to suggest that an independent decision is not what a firm is entitled to make. When the performance and accountability of these officers and directors led to the comprehensive damage and destruction we see today. Which I've detailed throughout the Preliminary Specification. No one outside of the rarified air of producer firms' officers and directors has benefited from oil & gas activity these past decades. These firms have been structured to “appear” healthy to facilitate enhanced and innovative executive compensation. Therefore the broader threat of this continued non-performant, “muddle through” process of “putting cash in the ground” and “building balance sheets” would continue as soon as the producers comply with investors' demand for a Tier 1 ERP system by selecting SAP for the next generation, and People, Ideas & Objects fade into the distance as an operational software organization. We can already hear the call for producers to stop listening to their investors.
The fundamental new impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers’ goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates … that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one. This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1942) Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy: 82 - 84
And
According to Schumpeter, this disruptive process of creative destruction is the foundation of the economic progress of society through time. Thus, Schumpeter provides a road map to the policy environment conducive to economic development—jurisdictions that allow the process of creative destruction to unfold, rather than those that put up barriers to protect the status quo, are the ones that grow faster and have stronger economic progress and development.
— The Essential Joseph Schumpeter (Essential Scholars) by Russell S. Sobel, Jason Clemens
Producers' methods of management have refused to consider any change to the Preliminary Specification, our user community and their service provider organizations. People, Ideas & Objects et al's focus is on providing the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas producers with the most profitable means of oil & gas operations. It’s not enough to just own the oil & gas asset anymore, it's also necessary to have access to the software that makes the oil & gas asset profitable. On a comparative basis our vision, methods and Preliminary Specification detail the value proposition of “what, how and why” we provide these values in detail. Throughout our history I’ve had many failures in my attempts to deliver ERP systems to producers. I’ve recently realized that my failures, as did Oracle in 2000 and IBM in 2005, were market failures. Due to the inability to attract producers' support. All of my and the other vendors' market failures relate to our proposed enhancement of the accountability and profitability of producer firms. Additionally, the history of abuse by producer firms towards their existing ERP providers extends beyond what could ever be considered incidental or inconsequential to today’s oil & gas industries' damage and destruction, or the actions to now select SAP and seal this industry in perpetual bureaucratic malaise. On the contrary they were and are deliberate.
These actions have obstructed and completely eliminated other forces aside from People, Ideas & Objects. These include disintermediation, decentralization, creative destruction, spontaneous order and serendipity. The lesson I’ve learned is what I described in May 2004. Software defines and supports an organization, but also constrains it. This statement supports implementing the Preliminary Specifications ideas and its permanent ERP software development capability. However, producers soon realized that if the software never changed, their unaccountable ways would continue. However they’ve failed to consider the consequences of their lack of accountability and profitability on the long term health of the industry. They have continued to destroy the industry and all associated with it.
Today the game’s changed for these officers and directors. There is a direct and specific request from investors to change their ERP systems to Tier 1 providers. Through consolidation and the elimination of the startup, small and junior sectors of the oil & gas industry, their administrations will remain unchallenged for a generation, at a minimum. The establishment of their upcoming business ventures focused on clean energy will provide officers and directors with a clean slate of possibilities in terms of future obtuse accountability. If only they could secure software that meets their and investors' needs, SAP fulfills their dichotomy. They could then continue in whatever direction they choose.
Time is now a premium resource. What is necessary for the oil & gas investor is to be specific as to what is an acceptable solution for Tier 1 ERP solutions. We can only achieve this by successfully implementing People, Ideas & Objects, our user community, and their service provider organizations' Preliminary Specifications with Oracle Cloud ERP, or Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas software and services. No alternative will be acceptable.
Alternatively, if these decisions are made to implement SAP, others will realize the consequences. The consequences will be a continuation of the status quo level of unacceptable performance, accountability and behavior displayed here for decades. If anyone believes that the officers and directors' reformed behavior of the past year (paying dividends and stock buybacks) will be permanent. Then they should ask themselves, why have they not implemented any solution to these issues since People, Ideas & Objects pointed them out? Compliance in the form of dividends is temporary, trust me. Cash being paid out of oil & gas companies for any discretionary reason will soon be stopped as soon as producers can say "they have complied." This cash will then resume its direct path back into more “traditional” pockets. The quantitative analysis of the difference between the value proposition offered through the Preliminary Specification is easily understood when we look at the industry today. And ask, what quantity of financial resources will be necessary to bring the existing infrastructure up to the needs of a profitable, energy independent North American oil & gas industry? Today producers have already begun to warn consumers to take precautions! A despicable response.
The issues are clearly visible to People, Ideas, and Objects. We were fortunate to have foreseen them and prepared the Preliminary Specification to address them with a viable, workable business model. Forward thinking only a few years ago is now timely. The pace of change in the industry demands that our offering's associated components be available. This includes our user community and software development capability as industry-wide, permanent ERP capacity and capability. Operationally we do not understand how the bureaucratic performance and accountability that we’ve seen over the past decades with the industry standard strategy of “muddle through” will provide any value for anyone outside of the officers and directors in the status quo configuration. We should consider adding SAP to the status quo. With the issues and opportunities around the replacement, refurbishment and expansion of the infrastructure necessary to achieve profitable energy independence in North America. SAP's stated product vision of a clean energy transition and compliant implementation are failures made to order. Failures for all concerned except that fortunate small cadre of officers and directors of the producer firms who have had the requisite authority and responsibility to do otherwise.