OCI Request for Proposal, Part II
Our Value Proposition
What if ERP software in oil & gas was no longer seen as an overhead cost but as the business opportunity that People, Ideas & Objects suggest it is? Which is the perspective oil & gas producers need to adopt to move their organizations on a higher trajectory in terms of performance and accountability. There will be no further development of any organization in any industry without software, but particularly ERP software. This defines and supports an organization's structure, performance and changing capability. Otherwise we will continue to have the paradox in oil & gas where the status quo is satisfied with the status quo and therefore only the status quo will ever be offered. People, Ideas & Objects believe this is the source of the tragic cost we’re experiencing with much more damage soon to arrive. It’s not enough to own an oil & gas asset. Without access to ERP software in the form of the Preliminary Specification there is abundant evidence now that North American oil & gas assets will never be profitable. Regardless of the commodity price, producer officers and directors have shown no interest in anything else. The level of destruction they have caused is unprecedented in business history. We should note that this occurred while our Preliminary Specification, designed specifically to deal with the producers' issues, was offered to mitigate these damages. The faith, trust and goodwill built in prior generations has been destroyed and the industry remains in the hands of those who operate in such bad faith. Now that there’s money on the table in the form of higher commodity prices, and potentially detrimental energy shortfalls this winter, actions need to be taken by oil & gas investors to specify the selection of an acceptable tier 1 ERP provider such as the base of our offering, Oracle Cloud ERP. It should only be People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and their service providers operating as our Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas.
In order to clarify their culpability, see the following chronology of recent officers' and directors' records. Each of these specific events is generally known and can be easily verified.
- On July 4, 2019 People, Ideas & Objects published a White Paper "Profitable North American Energy Independence -- Through the Commercialization of Shale". The title covers the topic, the development and integration of the Preliminary Specification.
- Our proposal was rejected on the basis that producers were unable to shut-in oil and gas “without damaging their formations.”
- A claim made by producer officers and directors who had done nothing about their organizations after many years of investors' demands to remedy the behavior of chronic overproduction due to the lack of production discipline.
- In April 2020, or within 9 months of the producer's rejection of our specific proposal to deal with the issue of overproduction. Oil prices reached the negative $40 range and producers were forced to shut-in production.
- A claim they made to their investors was not possible in 2017 to refute the Preliminary Specification. They knowingly misrepresented the facts, it turned out to be incorrect as they always knew it to be. For example, what do producers do when hurricanes threaten the Gulf of Mexico. Shut-in production and evacuate the staff. Or annual gas-plant turnaround, shut-in production.
- With over 25% of the global oil supply shut-in during COVID, no producer subsequently reported any damage had occurred to their formations.
- Once oil prices recovered, these officers and directors declared that “shale would never be commercial.”
- In 2021 they announced they were beginning the transition of their organizations to clean energy.
"It may well be that we have a number of winters where we have to somehow find solutions through efficiency savings, through rationing and as a very, very quick build out of alternatives," Chief Executive Officer Ben Van Beurden told reporters at a conference in Stavanger, Norway. “That this is going to be somehow easy or over, I think is a fantasy we should put aside -- we should confront reality."
- In 2022, 2023 they appeared to realize their error of misdirecting funds. Sold clean energy investments to return to shale.
- Today we don’t know what business they're in? This is the quality and style of leadership responsible for our economies' energy supply? A responsibility they’re unwilling to recognize, much like their inability to comprehend the need to earn “real” profits these past four decades? Where will we go from here with “muddle through?”
- With a sudden rush to implement SAP at the behest of their "shareholders' demands," it was during July 2023 that producers began parroting the thought that they needed to stop listening to their investors as it has always been "poor advice."
The reality to confront is the industry's dominant "muddle through" culture and strategy. This has helped producers “accept that we can transition to clean energy and discard conventional sources of coal, oil & gas.” Oil & Gas provides 10 to 25 thousand man hours of equivalent mechanical labor per barrel of oil. This amounts to 28 to 71 times the mechanical labor of the entire global population. If we have to ration or conserve this resource, as Mr. Van Beurden asserts, we make decisions about who may eat and work. The officers and directors did not feel obligated to do their job of providing oil & gas to the market, therefore that was the consumer's problem.
We were also allegedly told we held 50 and 100 year supplies of oil & gas in shale formations available on the North American market a few years ago. This was prior to the unanimous declaration by Shell's former CEO Mr. Van Beurden that shale would never be commercial. In 2021, it was abandoned and sold to invest in clean energy. Now we hear there may only be 10 to 15 more years of usable, drillable shale locations in the U.S. How is this? Oil and gas producers have always focused on reserves. Oil & gas exists in oil & gas men and women's minds. Of which the industry's leadership, such as Mr. Van Beurden prefers chasing fairy tales in the land of perennial losses and the abhorrent accountability of clean energy. Oil & gas reserves depend on economic conditions. At a $5 oil price there’s no oil in the world. At $150, you get a 50-year supply, etc. Technical specifications as to the amount of oil in place are as useless as the estimated remaining usable life of a punch press from a manufacturer. The market will determine its value.
In terms of the value People, Ideas & Objects generate, our Revenue Model provides the lowest ERP system cost in the industry. And that is by charging for software development costs, plus a profit as our fee structure, across the North American producer population. These costs are distributed on a per barrel of oil equivalent production basis. Therefore the industry pays for the one-time costs of ERP software development. A fundamentally more efficient value proposition than any of our competitors that charge each producer individually. Our user community is implementing Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas of our software and services of their service provider organizations. Realizing the remarkable cost savings and associated benefits of the cloud computing paradigm across the accounting and administrative domains of the industry. The substantial fixed costs associated with developing administrative and accounting capabilities and capacities within each and every producer organization are redundant, unshared and unshareable. High overhead costs are, we believe, the secondary reason for the chronic lack of “real” profitability in the industry.
People, Ideas & Objects Cloud Administration and Accounting for Oil & Gas transforms these non-competitive attributes into variable overhead costs. Production that is not profitable can be shut-in to incur a null operation, no profit or loss. Consequently, overhead of the producer firms and Joint Operating Committees will only be incurred during times of profitable production. Using our Preliminary Specifications decentralized production models price maker strategy, all production will be profitable, everywhere and always. Therefore all overhead is recovered in current operations by passing these costs on to the consumers. A critical difference to today's method of operation where most overhead is capitalized and therefore the cash spent is recovered through depletion over subsequent decades. Leaving cash deficiencies for costs such as rent and administrative salaries etc to be replaced by the investors annual stock issuance!
We also provide value because we're not focused on traditional software company concerns like code and customers. Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas is oriented and focused on the changing business of a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas producer. It also includes their associated service industries. This highlights the different motivations of software developers over the long term. With People, Ideas & Objects we generate revenues based on changes and needs producers and others communicate through our user community. We are motivated by continuous software improvement. In the traditional software vendor’s case they are motivated by their code and customer base. The larger their code base, the harder it is to change, which does not produce revenue. And the larger the customer base the more costly any changes become for the software provider to implement across their user base. Coincidentally, these changes to customer software do not generate revenues. Hence, their age and size as a software firm paradoxically leads to increases in development costs and overhead burden. What we have is a contrast and conflict in the dynamic nature of the software itself. This is in terms of the cost to each oil & gas producer and the motivation behind the developer. In addition People, Ideas & Objects uses Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and specifically Oracle Cloud ERP, which is built on Java, the first object-based ERP system. Therefore People, Ideas & Objects will be the first object-based ERP system available in the North American oil & gas industry, providing additional cost benefits over traditional procedural programming languages when all future object developments are incremental to existing code.
It is in each of these areas that we set the foundation for the material value proposition we provide North American producers. We have valued this in the range of $25.7 to $45.7 trillion over the next 25 years. There are many aspects of our offering that are not qualifiable or quantifiable and they are detailed in the discussion below. Our quantified numbers show that operating the industry on the basis of profitability everywhere and always increases North American producers' earnings by $5.7 trillion. The remaining $20 to $40 trillion of our value proposition describes how much capital will be required over the next 25 years. This is an estimate based on what others have said. In the Preliminary Specifications method of recognizing and passing capital costs on to consumers. Overheads are recovered in the current month of operation. And other cash management techniques have been used to manage the business. Using the same investor dollars captured in property, plant and equipment repeatedly on a cycle that competes with North American capital markets expectations eliminates the need to demand $20 to $40 trillion in new capital from investors. There will be no further need to build balance sheets or put more cash in the ground.
We only include this otherwise redundant business number as part of our value proposition as there has not been any change in industry methods to recognize that a capital intensive industry demands that the consumer's product cost reflects its capital intensive nature. That has not been the case for decades. We've stated this change during the past decade when the Preliminary Specification was available. Investors subsidize consumers' energy use by paying for capital costs. The subsidy amount is reflected on producers' balance sheets in the property, plant and equipment account. Or as we call these costs, they are the unrecognized capital costs of past production. Officers and directors have relied on a steady stream of new investor cash each and every year for decades, declared they’re profitable in the most specious manner and left the assets on the balance sheet for the CEO to run down mainstreet and brag about how big they grew their balance sheet and how much “cash they put in the ground.” Only in oil & gas could one hear such arguments, however we were subjected to a chorus of this each quarter across North America.
This overreporting of assets has an equal and commensurate effect on over reported profits. High profits attract investors to invest. Ultimately leading to overcapacity and overproduction of oil & gas commodities that are subject to price maker economic principles. This resulted in continued price decreases across these commodity markets intermixed with the occasional and all too frequent comprehensive collapse of commodity prices for the past four decades. The consequence is an industry with a substantial negative present value. It consumes value to fund its operations. Only People, Ideas & Objects et al have identified this issue. Prepared a software solution with the Preliminary Specifications in the form of our decentralized production model's price maker strategy.
Contrasting Visions
People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and their service provider organizations have painted a viable and profitable vision of how to rebuild the oil & gas economy in North America from the ashes of what remains. We see the destruction, and much of what will happen in the next few years and it is not something people expect. Producer firms are comprehensive failures of tragic proportions. Action is needed to proceed with this software development initiative. From whom, when and where our funding is sourced is not known to us. We only know the one significant criteria to succeed. Funding must come from the oil & gas industry itself. Otherwise, the industry won’t respect these developments, commit to them, and only look for alternatives when the opportunity arises. Only when they have some “skin in the game” can we begin to rebuild the greater oil & gas economy brick by brick, and stick by stick.
The Preliminary Specification is now more than a decade old. What if its existence was no longer available? Would producers pay dividends, stock repurchases or pay off bank debt? What if the threat of using the Preliminary Specification no longer existed in oil & gas? In September 2023 I will be 65 years of age. Producers' officers and directors may be close to making their ideal situation permanent. What they always wanted is just around the corner. Only People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service provider organizations stand in their way. Producers have cash streaming in, unaccountable organizations that could overnight and at a whim be involved in a variety of different businesses. Accounting methods that have been accepted by all concerned in the industry for decades, including the CPA firms, and a culture of “muddle through.” It’s decision time as People, Ideas & Objects believe the producers are moving now to seal their legacy of unaccountability and non performance. Doing so in the selection process of SAP as their tier 1 ERP system. They publicly state that listening to their shareholders is a misguided policy. An attitude that may soon be entrenched.
On the other hand this issue needs to be weighed against far larger issues that are persistent and unaddressed in the industry. The first is the science basis of the business and the "muddle through” approach of dealing with the looming retirements and continued inadequate interest in the university faculties the industry depends upon. The Preliminary Specification addresses this in the only way possible through organizational performance increases due to specialization, the division of labor and Professor Paul Romer's non-rival cost or sharing principles. The most significant part of this issue is leadership itself. As much as we berate them here at People, Ideas & Objects they are critical resources. Their inability to deal with the business may be a precursor to their exit from the industry. My point in raising the age issue regarding People, Ideas & Objects, engineers and geologists and industry leadership. If these points are so protracted that if Humpty Dumpty did fall, all the King's horses and all the King's men...
Oil & gas producers' investors insist that they implement a tier 1 ERP system, such as Oracle Cloud ERP or SAP. The Preliminary Specification base is Oracle Cloud ERP and qualifies for this requirement. SAP is used by a few oil & gas producer organizations and they are currently offering their solution as we speak. SAP’s system is designed for manufacturing companies where the ability to organize first, second, and third tier industry product production, just-in-time is attainable. Major auto manufacturers use it as does any global manufacturing concern and SAP makes them their priority. SAP sells their product to oil & gas producers however does not have an oil & gas solution. On September 12, 2022 SAP hosted their 11th annual oil & gas conference in Houston, and virtually. They published a 2017 white paper reflecting what they’re selling in oil & gas. On page 6 we see they focus on “Paving the Way for Business Model Innovations” indicating to me they don’t have a plan. However we read on.
- Oil, gas and energy companies pursue a bold vision for 2025 to deliver safe, reliable and sustainable energy products and services focused on the customer and enabled by innovation.
- To do this oil, gas and energy companies will implement new business models with a keen focus on sustainable energy transition. This will include investing in renewables, focusing on retail, electric vehicle (EV) charging at fueling stations, and carbon-cost reduction.
- To manage the magnitude of data volume through production and operations, collaboration on access to, and analysis of data require intelligent technologies such as AI and machine learning. Connected machines and business processes can help realize industry 4.0 aspirations.
- Larger oil, gas and energy companies will continue to diversify into adjacent industries such as utilities, solar and wind power, and energy storage.
SAP’s white paper shows the focus on Information Technology to solve oil & gas issues. Touching on all the key talking points, yet we find no instance of “accountable, accountability or performance.” This white paper and their Houston conference reflect SAP’s marketing brilliance which has been stellar. It is a study of some of the most effective examples in business. What I see SAP doing here is publicly stating that they’re selling unaccountability to producer officers and directors who want to maintain their chronic lack of accountability. Maintaining and permanently securing a lack of accountability in the organization through ERP software cements their bureaucratic manner and method of operation for the long term. I'm predicting significant SAP sales increases once the September 2022 conference is over.
Once SAP is implemented, producers will be defined by their officers and directors in whatever business they choose that day. They will be built upon the non-accountability framework that has worked so well for them personally. In terms of “what, how and why” SAP proposes to resolve the oil & gas issues and opportunities there is nothing in their white paper. Rather, it focuses heavily on environmentally-based clean energy transitions that are "safe, reliable, and sustainable". It continues with the unauthorized diversion of oil & gas revenues that oil & gas investors create with their investment in the oil & gas business. Profits will continue to be irrelevant, however this behavior will include distributions to investors as they'll know nothing could be done otherwise. What should also be stated is that without a defined plan in place, SAP’s system will need to define, design and architect their system. A process that took a decade for People, Ideas & Objects as it does for all appropriately built systems. SAP will instead adhere to the current officers' and directors' culture to implement quickly.
The focus on oil & gas at People, Ideas & Objects was unwavering, and they could see the clean energy initiative for what it was. An opportunity to be unaccountable for oil & gas investors' money spent in that direction. There is no opportunity for any of the clean energy initiatives to begin to carry the freight that oil & gas does on a daily basis and we discussed that at length in our July 4, 2019 white paper “Profitable, North American Energy Independence - Through the Commercialization of Shale.” Using the Manhattan Institute's Mark Mills "The 'New Energy Economy:' An Exercise in Magical Thinking" to present the fact that the physics do not support a viable or commercial outcome of either wind, solar or battery technologies. Those who bought the tailor's new clothes through this energy transition are now aware of their purchases' shortcomings. Further pursuit in this direction by oil & gas producers only exposes their continued misuse and abuse of their power, authority and responsibility. After a year of this transition it is evident to me that the alleged investors' push and drive for clean energy was contrived for deceptive purposes.
Some people may say that SAP will struggle to build a solution in an environment where Intellectual Property being commercialized by People, Ideas & Objects exists and must be avoided. That however will be a bureaucratic feature, and not a bug. The Preliminary Specification will become the excuse producers use to justify not enhancing performance accounting or accountability due to "existing IP that legally has to be avoided." This may become their latest, and greatest viable scapegoat of all time.
When I published in May 2004, organizations were defined, supported and constrained by ERP software. Producers interpreted that as the point where no further developments would be done to any ERP system. Cementing their organizations in bureaucratic stasis. Enabling them to hold onto power for decades longer. Not looking at the need to establish the permanent software development capability of the Preliminary Specification to ensure continued organizational development. Therefore in 2023 the prospective avoidance of People, Ideas & Objects IP will be a further extension of this same logic that precludes producers from ever attaining any level of performance or accountability expected of them.