OCI Resource Marketplace Module, Part IV
Decentralized Production Model
The Resource Marketplace, and all of the modules of the Preliminary Specification, adopt a decentralized production model. The oil & gas industry operates under a high-throughput production model. These two models are best described in Chapter 4 “The Rise of the Corporation” of Professor Richard Langlois' Book “The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism” and are as follows.
In a world of decentralized production, most costs are variable costs; so, when variations or interruptions in product flow interfere with output, costs decline more or less in line with revenues. But when high-throughput production is accomplished by means of high-fixed-cost machinery and organization, variations and interruptions leave significant overheads uncovered. p. 58
By adopting the decentralized production model within the Preliminary Specification the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas producer gains flexibility in their operations. This allows them to deal with low oil and natural gas prices. This is provided by turning oil & gas producers' fixed administrative, accounting and overhead costs into the variable administrative, accounting and overhead costs of the Joint Operating Committee.
Within the Resource Marketplace there are service providers who focus on providing services to the Joint Operating Committees in the industry. These service providers are former employees of oil & gas producers who were employed in the accounting, administrative and overhead areas of the firm. They will be reorganized across the industry so that they can focus on the process and apply their skills to their industry-wide client base. With this reconfiguration they'll be able to use specialization and the division of labor to enhance their service offerings to their producer clients
The innovative and profitable oil & gas producer is reduced to C-class executives, earth science and engineering resources, some support and legal staff. The remainder of the producer's needs are satisfied by service providers who number in the thousands of individual firms and are very specialized in the processes that they handle and the skills that they provide.
The Petroleum Lease Marketplace module has an interface called the Marginal Production Threshold Interface. This interface enables the Joint Operating Committee to determine when and if to shut-in production due to marginal costs not covered by revenues. When the costs are not covered and the property is shut-in the advantages of the decentralized production model are made available. The Joint Operating Committee holds the industry's operational decision making framework. Therefore, it has the authority to shut-in production to ensure producers remain profitable in all their operations to maximize overall profitability.
The example of how the decentralized production model provides innovative and profitable oil & gas producers with flexibility in their operations is as follows. The production, revenue and royalty accountants would have been removed from the various producers and reorganized into service providers that specialize in specific processes of those tasks. To cover the variety of skills and tasks within production, revenue and royalty accounting, it would include potentially hundreds of service providers. Providing specialized location-specific services to Joint Operating Committees.
In the case of production accounting there may be a service provider who specializes in one geographical region located in a remote area. This provides them with a hands-on production accounting service to the various Joint Operating Committees and producers in that region. Revenue accountants may specialize further based on the products produced. Each service provider takes the unique requirements for propane, butane etc into consideration. And finally several service providers would have been formed to provide services for the various processes involved in calculating royalties for the various jurisdictions in which oil & gas is produced.
Each of these service providers developed their services with People, Ideas & Objects software developers through our user community members. That service provider's principal. When activities occur in their network, such as production, efforts are made to complete tasks within the various processes. Successful completion of the tasks triggers billing of production, revenue and royalty accounting services to the Joint Operating Committee. When, as we noted earlier, the marginal threshold is crossed and the property loses money on production, the decision to shut-in the property is made. Then charges for production, revenue and royalty accounting services for the months where no production occurred would not be generated. No billings would be sent to the various Joint Operating Committees.
This situation would be the same for all administrative, accounting and overhead charges at that shut-in property. It is easy to demonstrate the direct relationship between production and revenue using production, revenue, and royalty accounting charges. Using the Preliminary Specification producer firms would cease all operating and overhead charges during shut-in production, and only capital costs would be uncovered. Capital costs may include minor associated administrative costs such as the costs to process the lease rental payment.
People, Ideas, & Objects et al.'s ability to make administrative and accounting overhead costs variable, based on profitable production, is a cornerstone of our value proposition. Untold trillions of dollars have been wasted and frittered away since the July 1986 oil price collapse that I attribute exclusively to North American producers. Overproduction is not just the act of over delivering product into a market with the characteristics of a “price maker.” Overproduction can also be defined as unprofitable production, consider the following.
The connotation of the economic term price maker has caused officers and directors to conclude that this is collusion. We argue otherwise when the Preliminary Specification uses the Joint Operating Committee and produces standard, objective, detailed, actual, and factual financial statements for each property. Producer firms will definitively know the “real” profitability of each property. A task that is not done today and cannot be done today. And therefore producers will independently decide to shut-in their unprofitable properties to make sure they attain the highest level of corporate profitability when unprofitable properties no longer dilute their profitable properties. Saving petroleum reserves for a time when they can be produced profitably. Maintaining the commodity as reserves ensures they don’t have to carry the incremental costs of unprofitable production. Keeping production and inventory costs lower by not producing and storing unprofitable production. Additionally, ensure marginal production is removed from commodity markets so that the marginal price of the product can be determined. Attaining the marginal price not only for the individual property but for all properties. Any production must provide replacement costs. Investors have stopped doing so and are no longer a source of funding. In a shut-in situation, the producer can use their innovative skills to restore the property to a financially viable state. Profitability is the only fair and reasonable method of allocating production. People, Ideas & Objects decentralized production models price maker strategy provides all the financial resources producers will need to meet their challenging future. It allows them to contribute to society productively and constructively.
At the bottom of this Wiki Page is a graph from @Soberlook by Les Borodovsky. (My apologies, this Wiki does not place photos or videos appropriately and they are best left at the end of the page.) References to prices, break-even and shut-in prices are based on that graph.
Looking at this from the perspective of the producer's officers and directors. Their total cost of each barrel of oil produced in the various shale formations is $48 to $54. Operating and royalty costs vary between $28 and $37. I would point out that the $18 to $23 in capital costs are based on an allocation of their capital costs across the entire reserves of the property. We’ve argued that this allocation is unreasonable in a capital market where the demands for capital performance are far greater than what can be achieved when a producer cycles their cash through their investments in a manner that retrieves their investment over several decades or more. This is further exacerbated when shale exposes prolific reserves, however it requires additional capital to offset steep decline curves to maintain deliverability.
To reuse previously invested cash, People, Ideas & Objects recommends that producers retire their capital costs within 24 to 30 months of the property's life. In turn, it provides them with the means to meet their demands for future capital costs, shareholder dividends and bank debt repayments. In addition, they can better match shale's rapid decline rates. This can only be done if the producer sells their commodities at a price above their break even point. This considers an appropriate accounting of operations costs and a reasonable capital retirement. In a capital intensive business, capital would be the majority cost passed to consumers.
Based on the producer's current perspective, this graph shows break-even and shut-in prices. At any point, and as long as the commodity price covers the operating costs, the property would continue to produce regardless of the impact on capital costs. If a dollar of capital costs was returned, or one dollar above the shut-in price, that would enable property to continue production. Only at the point in time where the commodity price dropped below operating costs would the producer allegedly shut-in their production. This is a fundamental misinterpretation of the term break even. It is the reason the industry is struggling and why producers have lost money for four decades. Breakeven is not interpreted here. What the producer assumes is that as long as there is cash flow above operating costs, they’re making money and will continue to produce. What they’re stating is acceptable is that they may not be breaking even, but they’re generating cash flow.
Lately we’ve seen producers continue to produce without considering market prices. Selling oil for almost negative $40 during April 2020 was consistent with selling natural gas at negative prices. Or I guess those are payments for sales and not conventional sales. Or the first quarter of 2023 when natural gas traded in the range 30 to 1 to 40 to 1. Having reduced the price well below their "break even point" for extended periods of time, decades in most cases, is the consequence of officers and directors' inaction. Their behavior is unlimited. Their production discipline is to produce 100% all the time. They believe markets are magical and mythical. The market provides one thing, a price. If the price offered is profitable, produce. No blaming, excuses or viable scapegoats.
According to People, Ideas & Objects' Preliminary Specification, if we could assume the accuracy of these graph numbers, the property would be shut-in at the breakeven point and below. The reason for this being the production discipline gained through knowing that producing any property unprofitably only dilutes producers' corporate profits. Producing below the breakeven point is unprofitable. Producing below the breakeven point for one producer, in an industry whose commodities are price makers, will drop the price of the commodities below the breakeven price for all producers. If all producers produce below breakeven prices for four decades, you have exhaustion of the industry's value. Times were only " favorable " when investors were willing.
To avoid the allegation of collusion officers and directors would have us believe that they were operating the industry within the law today. Losses of catastrophic proportions have been realized. Displacement of producer's financial resources over the long term is normal business for officers and directors. Imposing the destruction of their firm's assets and the capacity and capabilities of the oil & gas and service industries is the price to be paid. This is a “boom / bust” business. “If the Preliminary Specification is available to operate the business as a business, this is unnecessary and unacceptable.”
The inverse situation is provided by the Preliminary Specifications' decentralized production models price maker strategy during 2023 in North America. In an environment where the Preliminary Specification was operational, higher commodity prices would bring about higher production volumes that meet profitability thresholds. Therefore, incremental shut-in properties would be returned to production. Providing the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable North American producer with the most profitable means of oil & gas operations. The organizational objective is to satisfy consumer demand for energy with abundant, affordable and profitable energy. The value proposition of a barrel of oil equivalent is 10 to 25 thousand man hours of equivalent effort. Living without oil & gas is impossible in the most advanced society with the most productive economy. Yet, just as producers were forced to shut-in production due to almost negative $40 oil prices, they are required to bring on any previously unprofitable production that would have been shut-in under the Preliminary Specification to satisfy increased demand. Who should we look to for oil & gas? Apparently not the officers and directors. Operating the industry profitably, everywhere and always, would have enabled them to maintain the oil & gas industrial economy's capacities and capabilities. That People, Ideas & Objects were subjected to abuse and punishment for this and other content contained within the Preliminary Specification is evidence that officers and directors knew better. Since they knew our alternative was available, their method of management was threatened. They will need to live with their legacy of inaction.
Officers and directors ran the entire industrial complex into the ground over the past four decades. They also destroyed large percentages of service industries' industrial capacity, eliminating their capital structures. Go find a willing drilling rig investor or banker from a few years ago who saw the drilling rig they invested in cut up for scrap metal. Or a frac provider who had to sell their horsepower capacity. This was while producers whistled their uncaring and inconsiderate tune of “muddle through.” What I consider the equivalent of Joe Biden having the U.S. Embassy in Kabul display the Pride flag while overnight, and without notice exit the war zone. It is now incumbent upon producers to provide the financial resources to rebuild the service industry. The rule is “you broke it, you fix it.” Producers used and abused the service industry and now they’ll need to provide the money and backbone involved in the rebuilding effort, otherwise they’ll only use and abuse it again. Maybe when they rebuild the service industry, they’ll respect it. Producers do not have previously shut-in production, but they also lack the capacity to meet demand in the future. Whether it's a failure to make any real profitability or to meet market demand, we can certainly count on our North American oil & gas producer officers and directors to fail.
With the costs associated with exploration and production, and particularly shale reserves, it's no surprise that producers report losses on operations. What is surprising is that producers have done nothing over this period to mitigate the overproduction that has caused price declines. This has caused subsequent financial losses, destruction of producers' reserves and oil & gas industrial capacity. The reason for this chronic overproduction is that the producers have to generate revenues to cover the out of pocket costs of the overheads they incur in the “high throughput production” model they employ. This model has these overhead costs for the producer firm whether there is production or not. As a result, their operation becomes high-cost at any level of production. At lower production volumes, earnings are skewed and overhead costs appear out of place. Therefore this behavior of producing at capacity should be expected to continue on both the oil & gas sides of the business. Even despite significant financial loss or inability to meet market demand. Although some producers report overhead costs of less than 2% in many instances this is not representative of the situation. We believe overhead costs range between 10% and 20% of revenues. The difference being capitalized to property, plant & equipment to sit for eternity. These itemized amounts are never detailed or discussed in producers' financial statements. Please see the Preamble section of this Wiki page regarding cash management and more detail on overhead.
It is through People, Ideas & Objects et al’s process that producers can attain production discipline. This is when they realize that maximum profitability can only be achieved by producing profitable production everywhere and always. Therefore, producers are motivated to stick with the Preliminary Specification price maker strategy. Just as all businesses in the capitalist system have followed these principles since the great depression of 1929. The individual decisions of each oil & gas producer, based on an actual, factual accounting of the property's profitability, will determine if the property produces. That is how the oil & gas industry needs to deal with low commodity prices. The inverse of this is also relevant. When commodity prices rise, producers will raise profitable production volumes by returning shut-in properties to the market. It is certain that shale-based reserves will always dominate the oil & gas commodity market due to their prolific nature and flush production. Production discipline focused on profitability can only be achieved through the reorganization of the industry and producers. A reorganization based on the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model, detailed in the Specialization & Division of Labor Organizational Construct section. Our Cloud Administration & Accounting for Oil & Gas facility we are building makes overhead costs variable. Which enables our price maker strategy to provide for producers and tertiary industries profitability and ensure consumers are always provided with an abundant, affordable, reliable yet profitable source of energy.
A comprehensive description of the decentralized production model can be found on the Background/Decentralized Production Model page of our Wiki.