They've Been Swimming Naked!
The tide has rolled out and I’m advising no one to look. It's not something you can forget. Financial statements of the producers in our sample have taken a step downward based on my interpretation of the industry. Over the past few years my interpretation has been different from what the CEOs of the producers were representing. As they ceremoniously paraded their balance sheets down main street. Thank God we didn’t have to see them naked while they did one of these parades. Producers have stuck to their principle objectives of cash flow and growth. Oops, scratch that, cash flow and growth aren't doing well. Running an industry into the ground is a special talent and requires dedication and commitment over the long term. Thankfully, producers officers and directors have been up to the job and caused the most comprehensive destruction I’ve seen.
In the book Churchill’s Trial: Winston Churchill and the Salvation of Free Government, Professor Larry Arnn stated.
Churchill chose differently. “[N]ations which went down fighting rose again,” he said, “but those which surrendered tamely were finished.
Churchill spoke about the French surrender in WWII. I don’t think it's reasonable to suggest that these officers and directors surrendered as courageously as the French. “Muddle through” would seek to ensure that every last bit of executive compensation was extracted before their final capitulation. “Are we there yet?" kids ask during summer vacation. It seems to me that we’re close to it though. History shows officers and directors lack the motivation to stick it out when things become untenable. Digging through closets full of skeletons is painful work and not what they signed up for. During the Great Depression, they found it profitable to move to greener pastures in other industries. We’re seeing some spontaneous retirement announcements in the industry. Two high profile and unexpected announcements were Pioneer and Cenovus. The trick is to wait for the Stampede of retirement and then no one will remember your name.
Last week the Wall Street Journal's and Bloomberg published some indictments of officers and directors' performance. From WSJ Real Time Economics email subscription this graph shows the effect of “muddle through” on the industry's performance over the mid term. For those readers unfamiliar with oil & gas, I can assure you that the short and long term effects are the same. The industry has not performed meaningfully since the late 1970s. Establishing a non-performance culture. They don’t know what profitability is. They don’t understand how profitability is earned. They don’t know how to profit themselves. And worse, they couldn't care less about profits.
Investors took their chances and suffered the consequences of their decisions. We saw in 2015 the investment and banking community turn their backs on the highly specious financial statements of the producers. When everything spent is an asset, it's easy to report profits. Culturally, this leads to an acceleration to the bottom over four decades.
The fact is that everyone else in the industry except those in the lofty positions of officers and directors has been severely affected by this deliberately destructive mismanagement. I claim it's deliberate. Scroll to the left column of this blog and see that it was December 2005 that I began writing about these issues and the Preliminary Specification as the solution. How else do you account for almost twenty years of “muddling through” except purposeful, deliberate, self-serving destruction? To note also the dishonest way they've approached People, Ideas & Objects during this time.
Bloomberg wrote on May 3, 2023 in “The US Shale Oil Capital Won’t Invest in Itself” documenting the disastrous consequences of “muddle through.” Here are just a few of the points that stood out to me. Note that these points were identified as causes of inaction by producer officers and directors.
If the under-invested region can’t attract — and retain — people like Crawford to operate the continent’s most productive shale fields, the decline of America’s energy influence is only going to accelerate. Some shale bosses have already [started forecasting] the Permian Basin’s production peak by decade’s end, and a dearth of employees won’t help.
Part of the issue behind the city’s underinvestment is a small-government, fiscally conservative ethos that pervades the politics of West Texas, a Republican stronghold. But residents say there is also a quiet, underlying fear that the decade-old US shale boom could end as quickly as it started, turning the Permian into a ghost town almost overnight. Why spend tax dollars to improve a city, the thinking goes, when there’s a real feeling the bottom could still fall out?
“Unfortunately, a lot of people are always thinking, ‘when are we going to go down, when is the next bust cycle going to happen?’ So they’re afraid to really let some of that money go back into the community,” said Christine Foreman, president of the parent-teacher association at Midland High School. “They think, ‘we’re going to have a bust and everybody’s going to move away and then we’re going to have all this wasted infrastructure, wasted housing, wasted investment.’”
My patience is tested by the number of employees who have told me working for Diamondback was the best job they ever had, but they are moving because another destination offers them more than what they are receiving in Midland,” Stice wrote in [an op-ed] in the Midland Reporter-Telegram newspaper following the rejection. “How is Diamondback supposed to continue growing in a city that struggles to develop or grow with it?”
The schools are also a hard sell. One out of every three residents in the Permian reads below a third-grade level, Bentley said in written testimony before the US House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources earlier this year. Midland Independent School District spends $8,865 per student each year, according to National Center for Education Statistics data. If you ask NCES to compare that to US districts with similar demographics or other Texas cities, Midland is at the bottom of the list.
For now, companies in the region are just hoping the wages are enough to keep the workers coming — and prevent the existing workforce from packing their bags.
That’s hard when even Foreman, the president of the parent-teacher association, is encouraging her three children to consider starting their families outside of Midland where she raised them.
“It’s frustrating as a citizen, as a parent, as somebody who grew up in Midland,” she said. “It’s frustrating to see us not reinvest in our community.”
These numbers show that the Permian, the largest U.S. field, suffers from infrastructure shortages. There is no faith, trust or belief in the producers to do right and turn the industry around. Or as People, Ideas & Objects et al provide in the Preliminary Specification, to work the “boom / bust” economy out of existence. Officers and directors take a lackadaisical, uncaring, and easy approach to “muddle through.”
” By “building balance sheets'' and “putting cash in the ground” we see their focus. It’s not business. It’s not common sense. It’s not constructive or productive. It’s just lazy. And most of all, the viable scapegoat in this article clearly identifies Midland City Council’s inability to invest in infrastructure. That’s why producers have to spend more on resources and resources are difficult to come by.
Human nature forgives those that cause the biggest issues. However, they will prosecute those with the slightest indiscretion. An example of this is the current President and the alleged scandals his family is involved in. This can best be summarized as selling the United States to the highest bidder for personal gain. While the audacity of the former President to use Twitter is well beyond any social norm of acceptable civilized behavior.
Officers and directors have been forgiven for their large indiscretions these past decades. The question then becomes, has the damage become so substantial that they’re now unable to rectify anything? Are they powerless and hopeless in their capabilities and capacities? Bloomberg suggests the Permian will face that in 2030. Officers and directors may ask, why am I here taking responsibility for this? As a result of the untenable situation they find themselves in, they may pursue greener pastures with fewer complications and difficulties. And perhaps most importantly, avoid accountability or responsibility for any looming difficulties their replacements may face. Having the wherewithal to say that it was in good shape when they left, and don’t know what their replacements have done.
A historical example of this is when directors and officers leave, which was established during the 1929 Great Depression. In the past I’ve suggested they should invest in the development of the Preliminary Specification before they leave. Obviously, if the industry is in the state I suggest it is in, they won't do so. Funding People, Ideas & Objects would be a tacit admission that their job hasn't been done. They will therefore exit quietly in the crowd of other producers officer and directors as they too exit. Therefore who can People, Ideas & Objects appeal to for funding? If there is no one, does this leave the Preliminary Specification orphaned?
If natural gas prices were maintained from September 2022 to the end of the first quarter of 2023? What would the differential be in terms of what producers' officers and directors gave up? I’ve calculated it to be a loss of over $72 billion for the quarter. However, that remains a faint shadow of the amount lost over the past four decades with at least a dozen outright oil or gas price collapses. And the chronic overproduction that has plagued the industry for years has depressed prices. These losses are what People, Ideas & Objects have focused on since August 2004. And as the Bloomberg article suggests we should have spent our time more productively convincing Midland’s City Council to pass the Hogan Park upgrade spending. That is the issue the industry is focused on. From the same Bloomberg article.
A couple of years ago, some residents thought they’d found a solution to the city’s inaction: fund public-space improvements with private money. A non-profit called Quality of Place Conservancy — led by Jeff Beard, vice president of business development at Midland-based driller CrownQuest Operating LLC — proposed a $55 million upgrade to the city’s historic Hogan Park. It would feature new sprawling sports fields, playgrounds, trails, a splash pad, pavilion, food trucks and more. Under the plan, $45 million would come from private investment, while the city would fund $10 million and have final approval over how the project moved forward — the sort of public-private partnership Texas towns bolster to try to build ambitious projects that taxpayer dollars alone wouldn’t be able to afford. By January, when the Midland City Council was set to vote on the proposal, $28.5 million of private investment had already been locked in, Beard said. Still, the council rejected it in a 4-2 decision, citing concerns over how the city would pay its portion and how the project would be governed.
The industry's challenges will continue to manifest while producers "muddle through." And they clearly admit that even the Permian will diminish by 2030. There may be a reason to justify industry leadership exit. If so, what would be done at that point?
What People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification brings to the table. A multi-trillion dollar value proposition based on two identifiable and quantifiable attributes. $5.7 trillion in higher profitability over the next 25 years through our price maker strategy that produces only profitable production, everywhere and always. Secondly the cycling of cash through the producer firms by realizing the capital costs of oil & gas exploration and production. This is done by passing the producer's capital costs on to the consumer. To do so in a competitive manner with the North American capital markets.
There is as much value in the intangible, unidentifiable and unquantifiable attributes of the Preliminary Specifications business model contained within our seven Organizational Constructs. These form a strong cultural structure for people who work within the industry. This structure allows them to rely upon and build incremental value for the producers, its people, the industry, all of its service and tertiary industries. Profitability drives prosperity. This business model identifies and addresses today’s issues and provides a foundation for tomorrow's financial, operational and political difficulties.
What should have been a continuing year of building on 2022's limited success has revealed a shocking lack of swimwear. We should not be surprised as the industry's financial foundation crumbled long ago. It may enjoy successful days here and there, and that will sustain those that have benefited from it the most. However, taking advantage of a primary industry in this way shows the irresponsible and reckless methods culturally developed by executives in this industry. I don’t think the situation is viable on a go-forward basis and I am encouraged that the WSJ graph shows that I’m not wrong from at least 2008. There has been a significant degeneration of motivation, faith, trust and goodwill throughout the industry, and the individuals responsible are the directors and officers. I have identified the issues, opportunities and solutions since well before 2008 and they only vilified and ostracized People, Ideas & Objects. I do not say that to solicit sympathy, only to show the culpability of those responsible who knew better and chose the route to destroy what was not theirs. This was so that each of them could continue to profit financially. Officers and directors may want to identify what we’ve described as their long list of viable scapegoats as the culprits. Which now include the Midland City Council and those “‘One out of every three residents in the Permian reads below a third-grade level,’ Bentley said in written testimony before the US House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources earlier this year.” However I only see this as a continuation of their despicable behavior.