Revisions to the Preamble Part 2
Our Decentralized Production Model & Price Maker Strategy
What we've experienced over the past four decades in North American oil & gas is unique in all organizations and of all business history. Although we learned during the great depression the economic consequences of overproduction, and experienced its consequences in oil & gas since the 1980s, no one seems to have explained it to the North American producer. Oil & gas overproduction in North America has been systemic and chronic throughout the producer population and will continue to be without an effective means and method of production discipline being imposed. The history over this period is stark and clear. In the late 1970s the SEC imposed its Full Cost Accounting and associated Ceiling Test requirements on producers trading shares in the American market. These requirements allowed producers to record costs in property, plant and equipment as assets up to the limit of the present value of their independently evaluated petroleum reserves. This allowed an unnecessary flexibility in the financial statements that created distortions since that time. Simply, shifting the accounting from an evaluation of performance to one of value, hence the producer's foolish objective of “building balance sheets” etc came about. This is the mindset of our good friends, the producer bureaucrats who are the directors, CEO’s, CFO's and COO’s and any other officers. What we know of business is that overreported asset valuations lead to commensurate amounts of overreported profitability. Leading to investors rushing in to capture those profits and hence the process of overinvestment begins. Overinvestment in the productive capacity of the oil & gas producers leads to overproduction of commodities that are subject to the economic price maker principles and characteristics. Causing a collapse of commodity prices throughout this past four decade period. The first commodity price collapse that we can document was during the summer of 1986 when $10 oil prices decimated the industry for the better part of a decade. This is counter to the cultural and bureaucratic belief that oil & gas commodities are price takers. These definitions are from investopedia.com
Price maker
A price maker is a monopoly or a firm within monopolistic competition that has the power to influence the price it charges as the good it produces does not have perfect substitutes. A price maker that is a firm within monopolistic competition produces goods that are differentiated in some way from its competitors' products. This kind of price maker is also a profit-maximizer as it will increase output only as long as its marginal revenue is greater than its marginal cost, so in other words, as long as it's producing a profit.
Price taker
A price-taker is an individual or company that must accept prevailing prices in a market, lacking the market share to influence market price on its own. All economic participants are considered to be price-takers in a market of perfect competition, or one in which all companies sell an identical product, there are no barriers to entry or exit, every company has a relatively small market share, and all buyers have full information of the market. This holds true for producers and consumers of goods and services and for buyers and sellers in debt and equity markets.
As evidence supporting People, Ideas & Objects claim of price taker characteristics I make the following argument in our User Community Vision. Bureaucrats interpret substitutes to be; if they don’t produce others will, therefore substitution is everywhere. This is not what substitution means though. Does it mean that Elon Musk could make it to Mars if he replaced rocket fuel with a hydro dam? Or could we use wind energy to lubricate our crankcases? How about storing nuclear fuel rods in the convenience of a jerry can as you travel outdoors this weekend. And if you’d be able to return alive from your weekend adventure you might make it back to the office in that new solar panel, or pine bark suit you just bought. Alternatively if bottled water ceased to be produced people would switch to soft drinks, tap water, juice or other substitutes. Any overproduction of bottled water would see inventories swell and the price remain the same, as would the price of the last bottle of water found anywhere in the world.
The connotation of the economic term price maker has caused producer bureaucrats to conclude this is collusion. We argue otherwise when the Preliminary Specification uses the Joint Operating Committee and will produce detailed, actual, factual financial statements for each property. Producer firms will definitively know the “real” profitability of each of their properties. A task that is not done today and more importantly can not be done today. And therefore producers will independently decide to shut-in their unprofitable properties to ensure they attain the highest level of corporate profitability. Saving their petroleum reserves for a time when they can be produced profitably. Keeping their production and inventory costs lower by not incurring the costs of unnecessarily producing and storing unprofitable production. Ensure their reserves don’t have to recover the incremental costs of their losses as additional earned profits. And most importantly ensure that the marginal production is removed from the commodity markets allowing them to find their marginal price. While shut-in the producer can apply their innovativeness to return the property back to profitable production. People, Ideas & Objects and our user community are the appropriate business approach to the chronic and systemic overproduction of oil & gas and the persistent obtuseness of the producer bureaucrats, not collusion. Without “real” profitability there is only waste and deterioration as we’ve experienced these past decades. Without investors and bankers who were duped by these specious financial statements, there was no sustainable value generated.
The definition of collusion is provided by Wikipedia.
In the study of economics and market competition, collusion takes place within an industry when rival companies cooperate for their mutual benefit. Collusion most often takes place within the market structure of oligopoly, where the decision of a few firms to collude can significantly impact the market as a whole. Cartels are a special case of explicit collusion. Collusion which is overt, on the other hand, is known as tacit collusion, and is legal.
By definition then the Preliminary Specification price maker strategy may fall under the category of overt or tacit collusion. Which is legal. Each of the producer firms will be making the independent business decisions of whether or not to produce at each and every one of the many properties that they own. Those decisions will be made on the actual, factual accounting that provides the information for that decision. The decision is to make a profit, if the property is shut-in due to unprofitability it will incur a null operation, no profit but also no loss. Achieved when the Preliminary Specification has made all of the producers costs variable based on profitable production. The decision to avoid a loss of corporate financial resources and assets, in the form of petroleum reserves, when producing an unprofitable property at a price that does not cover the marginal cost, in the long term perspective of marginal cost, (as per Wikipedia “analysis is segregated into short and long-run cases, so that, over the longest run, all costs become marginal,”) is a rational business decision, not collusion. This also for the first time in the history of the industry enables the producer firm to indirectly control their overhead costs based on their profitable production profile.
The following graph was provided by Les Borodovsky from @SoberLook. What this graph is representing is the status quo perception of costs and how management of production is handled in oil & gas.
Looking at this from the perception of the producer bureaucrats. Their total costs of each barrel of oil produced in the various shale formations is in the range of $48 to $54. The operating and royalty cost of each barrel varies between $28 and $37. I would point out the $18 to $23 in capital costs are based on an allocation of their capital costs across the entire reserves of the property. We’ve argued that this allocation is unreasonable in a capital market where the demands for the performance of capital are far greater than what can be achieved when a producer is cycling their cash through their investments in a manner that retrieves their investment over several decades or more. This is further exacerbated when shale exposes prolific reserves, however demands additional capital to offset steep decline curves to maintain deliverability.
As an alternative, People, Ideas & Objects recommend that producers retire their capital costs within the first 30 months of the properties life to provide for the reuse of the previously invested cash. In turn providing them with the means to meet their demands for future capital costs, shareholder dividends and bank debt repayments, and better match the rapid decline rates experienced in shale. This can only be done if the producer is selling their commodities at a price that is above their break even point which considers an appropriate accounting of the costs of operations and reasonable retirement of their capital.
This graph reflects the Well Break Even and Shut-in prices of the producers current position. At any point, and as long as the commodity price covered the operating costs, the property would continue to produce regardless of the impact on capital costs. If a dollar of capital costs was being returned, or one dollar above the shut-in price, that would enable the production of the property to continue. Only at the point in time where the commodity price dropped below the operating costs would the producer allegedly shut-in their production. This is a fundamental misinterpretation of the term break even, it is the reason the industry is in the difficulty that it’s in and why the producers have continued to lose money for the past four decades. Break even is not what is being interpreted here. What in fact the producer is assuming is that as long as there is cash flow above the operating costs then they’re making money and will continue to produce. What they’re stating is acceptable is they may not be breaking even, but they’re generating what they interpret to be cash flow.
What People, Ideas & Objects provide in our Preliminary Specification, if we could assume the accuracy of this graph numbers, is the point at which the property would be shut-in would be at the breakeven point and below. The reason for this being the production discipline gained through knowing that producing any property unprofitably only dilutes the producers corporate profits. Producing below the breakeven point is the point where unprofitability begins. Producing below the breakeven point for one producer, in an industry who’s commodities are price makers, will have the effect where the price of the commodities will be dropped below the breakeven price for all producers. When all producers continue to produce below the breakeven price for four decades you have an exhaustion of the value from the industry on an annual and wholesale basis. Times were only “good” when investors were willing.
To avoid the allegation of collusion bureaucrats would have us believe that they were operating the industry within the law today. Losses of catastrophic proportions have been realized, displacing the financial resources of each and every producer over the long term is normal business for the bureaucrat. Imposing the destruction of their firm's assets and the capacity and capabilities of the oil & gas and service industries is the price that therefore needs to be paid as it’s accepted as a “boom / bust” business. This is unnecessary and unacceptable when the Preliminary Specification is available to operate the business as a business.
The inverse situation is provided by the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production models price maker strategy during the times we find ourselves in during 2022 in North America. In an environment where the Preliminary Specification was operational, higher commodity prices would bring about higher production volumes that would meet the threshold of profitability and therefore incremental shut-in properties would be returned to production. Providing the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable North American producer with the most profitable means of oil & gas operations. The organizational objective is to satisfy the consumer demand for energy on the basis of abundant, affordable and profitable energy. The value proposition of a barrel of oil equivalent is in the range of 10 to 25 thousand man hours of equivalent effort. Going without is not possible in the most advanced society with the most productive economy. Yet, just as producers were forced to shut-in production as a result of almost negative $40 oil prices, they are required to bring on any previously unprofitable production that would have been shut-in under our system in order to satisfy demand. Who should we look to now to provide the oil & gas that’s needed? Apparently not the bureaucrats. Operating the industry profitably, everywhere and always, would have enabled them to maintain the capacities and capabilities of the greater oil & gas industrial economy. That People, Ideas & Objects were subjected to abuse and punishment for this and other content contained within the Preliminary Specification is evidence that bureaucrats knew better, that our alternative was available and it was a threat to the bureaucrats method of management. They will need to live with their legacy of inaction.
What bureaucrats were able to do was run the entire industrial complex into the ground over the past four decades and completely destroy large percentages of the service industries industrial capacity, eliminating their capital structures. Go find a willing drilling rig investor or banker of a few years ago who subsequently saw the drilling rig they invested in cut up for scrap metal while producer bureaucrats whistled their uncaring and inconsiderate tune of “muddle through.” It is now incumbent upon the producers to provide the financial resources to rebuild the service industry. The rule is “you broke it, you fix it.” Producers used and abused the service industry and now they’ll be needing to provide the money and backbone involved in the rebuilding effort, otherwise they’ll only use and abuse again, everyone else had their fun and don’t trust the producers. Maybe when they’ve had to rebuild it they’ll respect it. In 2022 producers not only don’t have any previously shut-in capable production, they haven’t the capacity or capability in terms of the means to meet the market's demand for energy. Whether it's a failure to make any real profitability or to meet the market's demand, we can certainly count on our North American oil & gas producer bureaucrat to fail.
With the costs associated in exploration and production, and particularly shale reserves, it's no surprise that producers have reported losses on operations. What is surprising is that producers have done nothing over this period to mitigate the overproduction that has caused the decline in pricing, subsequent financial losses, destruction of the producers reserves and greater oil & gas industrial capacity. The reason for this chronic overproduction is the producers have to generate the revenues to cover the out of pocket costs of the overheads they incur in the “high throughput production” model they employ. This model has these overhead costs of the producer firm being incurred whether there is production or not, and as a result, makes their operation a high cost operation at any level of production. At lower production volumes, it skews their earnings and overhead costs appear out of place. Therefore this behavior of producing at capacity should be expected to continue on both the oil & gas sides of the business. Even in spite of significant financial loss or the inability to meet market demands. Although some producers report overhead costs of less than 2% in many instances this is not representative of the situation. We believe based on our experience that overhead costs range between 10% and 20% of revenues. These itemized amounts are never detailed or discussed in the financial statements of producers. Please see the section of this Preamble under our Value Proposition sub-heading regarding cash for more detail on overhead.
In the Preliminary Specification the decentralized production model is employed which enables the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil & gas producer to implement our price maker strategy. This decentralized production model has been defined by Professor Richard N. Langlois as:
In a world of decentralized production, most costs are variable costs; so, when variations or interruptions in product flow interfere with output, costs decline more or less in line with revenues. But when high-throughput production is accomplished by means of high-fixed-cost machinery and organization, variations and interruptions leave significant overheads uncovered.
Production discipline is attained through this process when the producer realizes that their maximum profitability is obtained through producing only profitable production everywhere and always. Therefore producers are incentivized to adhere to the principles of the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production models price maker strategy. Just as all businesses in the capitalist system follow these principles since the great depression of 1929. The individual decisions of each oil & gas producer, based on an actual, factual accounting of the profitability of the property, will determine if the property produces. That is how the oil & gas industry needs to deal with the low commodity price situation that it occasionally finds itself in. The inverse of this is also relevant when commodity prices rise, producers will be raising production volumes by returning their shut-in properties to the market. Shale based reserves will always overwhelm the oil & gas commodity market with flush production and deliverability that are driven by its prolific nature. Production discipline based on profitability can only be achieved through the reorganization of the industry and producers based on the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model and detailed in the Specialization & Division of Labor section above. Where overhead costs are made variable and producers are using the facility we’re building of Cloud Administration & Accounting. Which enables our price maker strategy to provide for the producers and industries profitability and in turn ensure the consumers are always provided with an abundant, affordable, reliable yet profitable source of their energy.