Our Oil and Gas White Paper, Part XXXII
This “new energy economy” rests on the belief—a centerpiece of the Green New Deal and other similar proposals both here and in Europe—that the technologies of wind and solar power and battery storage are undergoing the kind of disruption experienced in computing and communications, dramatically lowering costs and increasing efficiency. But this core analogy glosses over profound differences, grounded in physics, between systems that produce energy and those that produce information.
In the world of people, cars, planes, and factories, increases in consumption, speed, or carrying capacity cause hardware to expand, not shrink. The energy needed to move a ton of people, heat a ton of steel or silicon, or grow a ton of food is determined by properties of nature whose boundaries are set by-laws of gravity, inertia, friction, mass, and thermodynamics—not clever software.
This paper highlights the physics of energy to illustrate why there is no possibility that the world is undergoing— or can undergo—a near-term transition to a “new energy economy.”
Locomotion of humans has historically been through the automobile. Therefore the transition to renewable energy will see battery powered cars continue that trend. This is ludicrous. Battery powered cars is an oxymoronic application of battery power that we’ll look back at, in the very near future, as a distraction. Two ton vehicles being powered by batteries, hurtling down the highway at 60 mph, could only ever make up 5% of the automotive market. That number of batteries would consume the world’s resources of the ingredients that make up any and all batteries. The average speed that a car travels in the intercities of major cities such as New York is 8 mph. Maybe the application of battery powered vehicles is in bicycles, segways and scooters where consumers could use them to travel at up to speeds of 15 mph for those short range 3 - 4 mile trips that they would have otherwise taken the car. This would be a far more logical progression of the technologies and its application. Particularly when the volume of battery power is constrained. The stumbling block to this progression is the outright banning of these battery powered vehicles in many cities around the world.
Nothing is going to eliminate or reduce the consumption of oil, natural gas or coal for the foreseeable future. Current and future use of these forms of energy are not materially changed as a result of the substantial investment that have been made in them, the constraints that are faced, the unbelievable volumes of oil and natural gas that are consumed each day, and the endowment that mother nature has provided in the oil and gas resources that we have built our economy around. Until you can fully visualize the power that is derived from the 147 million barrels of oil equivalent produced each day, you’ll never understand how fruitless it is for the Energizer Bunny to try and compete. The graph that follows is provided by Mark Mills’ paper “The ‘New Energy Economy:’ An Exercise in Magical Thinking.”
What is clear is that after 50 years minimal benefit will have been gained from the development of these alternative energy sources. Although it appears to be solely at the expense of hydrocarbons the sample size would be too small to draw any conclusions. At 2% currently, with wind and solar fields producing energy across the continent it’s reasonable for people to ask, “Is that it?” It will require development of some new type of technology that is unknown today that will drive the carbon economy into instinction. I’m betting on pocket fusion reactors myself. Here we have another graph from Mark Mills’ paper showing what electrical output can be derived from a $1 million investment in shale, wind and solar energy.
In light of these points what is the responsibility of the oil and gas industry? Continued verbal support for a myth and fallacy that inevitably will be seen as untrue? Continue to pay the environmental activists their ransom for being good corporate citizens when the purpose of those organizations is to disrupt the producers and confuse society? Let society casually roll down the wasteful and unproductive environmental focus and alternative energy blind bunny trails, only to be caught out when they see their dependence on oil and gas is far more significant than they could have ever imagined. Are the producers bureaucrats pursuing these alternative narratives so that they look like good corporate citizens at the expense of doing their job of ensuring that adequate energy is profitably and innovatively sourced for the long term? Why haven’t they asserted the industries narrative regarding the value that oil and gas provides society? What has been the purpose for the consumers discount that they’ve obviously provided consumers at the expense of their investors over these past four decades? It’s always best to consider these questions in light of the fact that oil and gas in North America is not a business. A business wouldn't do the things that these producers do and without any leaders, it's difficult for them to assert any leadership.
The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.