These Are Not the Earnings We're Looking For, Part XXXIV
Oil and gas is a capital intensive industry. Where most costs are capital in nature to begin with. What makes it particularly difficult is that the industry is operated in such a way that “building the balance sheet” is the objective. Therefore capitalization is done everywhere and always. Particularly in the overhead accounts where each year large percentages of the overhead costs are capitalized to property, plant and equipment. In addition interest is capitalized to a certain extent and at one point PennWest even capitalized their royalties. As we know all of these capital costs escalate each year and property, plant and equipment builds ever larger, quite rapidly. This is also due to the minimal amount of depletion that the producer recognizes. Enabling them to report higher profits than what they should, attract more investment and overproduce more of their “profitable” oil and gas. They are therefore through this process passing an indirect discount to the consumer when these capital costs that should have been recognized stay dormant on the producers balance sheet in property, plant and equipment for decades at a time. The amount of this discount is the amount of property, plant and equipment sitting on all of the producers balance sheets today. An amount believed to be $1.5 trillion. This is also the amount that investors should have received in the form of dividends over these past 40 years.
The point in my stating this once again is that the capital costs are purchased with cash. When you have a willing investor supporting your organization the cash consumption might not be an issue. That doesn’t make the activity right, it just doesn’t become a crisis. When producers needed more cash they just issued more stock. When you don’t have a willing investor or banking group supporting your organization then you’re paying out the monthly bills each and every month, with cash, and only retrieving those cash resources in small bits over the next few decades. What cash does come in as a result of the producer recognizing some of their capital costs has an immediate call on it to maintain the production profile of the producer. This is the way that oil and gas is operated which is not a business. It is a spending machine that was consistently reloaded as required by investor money. This has become the culture of the industry and is done systematically throughout North America in order to “build the balance sheet.” This process is deemed, I suppose, to add some value in some way.
What needs to change, and what will change in the Preliminary Specification price maker strategy, is the producers will cease “building their balance sheets” and begin recognizing their capital costs in a more timely manner. We believe a 30 month period is adequate to compete in today’s capital markets. Therefore instead of having depletion take 12 years it will be done in 2.5 years. When production only occurs when it’s profitable as it does in the Preliminary Specification. And the producer begins to understand that true profitability only occurs when they are not diluted by any of their unprofitable properties, and therefore only produce profitable properties. That their reserves will be saved for a time when they can be produced profitably. These reserves costs won’t have to carry the incremental costs of each months losses incurred from unprofitable production. And the commodity markets will find the marginal cost when unprofitable production is removed from the marketplace. Producers will need much higher oil and gas prices in order to retire the capital costs that are being recognized at a much faster pace in order to remain producing only profitable production and compete in terms of their returns in the larger capital markets. Consumers have had the benefit of the investors paying the capital costs on their energy consumption now for four decades. That is the net effect of the actions of the producers and industry for the past four decades. Both of these aspects of the producers business are unrecognized, or at least not discussed publicly. Producer bureaucrats are either obtuse or they’re uncaring. Either / or it doesn’t really matter.
Profitability is the fairest and most reasonable means of production allocation. We see in Alberta that none of the producers are satisfied with the government mandated production cuts. They can not be applied in a manner that will be acceptable and controllable other than in a competitive market where profitability and innovation are the two drivers of producibility. If a property is unprofitable, under the Preliminary Specification, it is a priority for the producer to expend their earth science and engineering capabilities upon that property in order to return it to profitable production as soon as possible. Innovation is the source of profitability in the long term for the producer. Innovation and profitability are two of the key capabilities provided in the Preliminary Specification.
This is how the business of the oil and gas business must be operated from this point forward. Confusion about the issues and opportunities are rampant in the industry. Everyone has an opinion as to the source of the problem and that there are no solutions other than to “muddle through like always.” People, Ideas & Objects believe the scope of the damage that has been self inflicted by these producers is terminal. Creative destruction is our method in which we’ll bring our solution to the marketplace. Rebuilding the industry brick by brick and stick by stick on the basis of dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producers. To continue without any action on these issues is untenable. There are believed to be prospective capital expenditures in the range of $20 to $40 trillion in the next 25 years. It is therefore assumed by today’s inaction of the producers that investors will be picking up this tab. It is also the common knowledge on the street that all that is needed is for the “investors to back up the truck to the producers loading dock and replenish the cash needed to make everyone flush again.” A ludicrous expectation that the damage sustained throughout the industry, the service industry and the general economy can be resolved by investor resources provides an understanding of the level of business in play at these producers. There is not enough investor capital in the universe to make the industry “flush.” It can only be on the basis of the consumers paying the full costs of their energy consumption that the industry will right this ship. Investors currently see no future in oil and gas because there is no future. All that oil and gas has become is a giant sinkhole where money goes to die. The only group discussing otherwise is here on the ugliest websites on the InterWeb. The place where thinking through the industry issues occurs, solutions are provided and has no support from the industry. That’s because oil and gas is not a business.
The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North American energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.