An Accelerating Frustration Level
What we do know is at the end of the third quarter of 2018 the oil price was $73.56 which supported higher valuations of reserves on their big, beautiful balance sheets. Therefore, their reserves being more valuable, the amount of depletion that needed to be recorded would be far less than what was recorded at the end of the third quarter of 2017 when the price of oil was $51.67. Which is possibly why the third quarter of 2018’s recorded depletion of our sample of 23 producers was $39.1 billion vs. $52.3 billion for the same period in 2017. So yes there is no question that based on these lower depletion numbers in 2018 the higher profitability necessary to ensure the commercialization of shale was achieved. My frustration with this situation is the source of my sarcasm.
Throughout 2018 many producers were able to sell properties in order to raise some much needed cash. There almost seems to be a cash crisis raging in the industry. A majority of those properties ended up selling well below what they were recorded at on their big, beautiful balance sheets of the seller. Therefore creating large losses on these transactions. My question would be should this prompt the public accountants to begin a serious discussion of reducing the asset values of the producers to the traditional accounting requirement of the lower of cost or market value? After all how is it that all these producers, who are in a self proclaimed crisis, with assets ballooned to the stratosphere, justifying these numbers? Keeping with the theme of the obscenely high values of property, plant and equipment on the producers balance sheets, or as we like to call them at People, Ideas & Objects, the unrecognized capital costs of past production. With the decline in prices to $45.81 at the end of 2018, which is $15 below the price that was realized at December 31, 2017, the amount of depletion for 2018 is going to have to catch up and far exceed that which was recorded in 2017. To summarize for the public accountants then, even though the industry is in crisis producers big, beautiful balance sheets stick out like a sore thumb. The amount of sales of properties sold at values that are well below what the recorded cost are, seems to indicate that maybe they’ve been chronically and systemically recorded at too high of value. Or, you could keep this bloated asset value deception humming until the year 2021, 2022 fiscal period when the producers decide to change their strategic vision to that of muddling along and doing nothing. I certainly don’t want to tell them how to manage their business however it does appear that the overreporting of assets, earnings and cash flow has destroyed the credibility of the oil and gas producers in the eyes of the investors. The last time this happened was on a limited basis which saw Enron and WorldCom destroyed by a lack of faith. But then I guess there was also Arthur Anderson that was vaporized in that situation.
As an alternative People, Ideas & Objects recommend the industry implement the Preliminary Specification. With its decentralized production model’s price maker strategy producers will use profitability as the determinant as to whether a property produces or not. This ensures the highest level of profitability attainable by their organization when no losses on operations dilute their profitable operations, will hold their reserves for a time when they can be produced profitably, keeps their capital base lower when the monthly losses on unprofitable properties are not added to the amount of capital that the property needs to recover and ensures that the commodity markets find the marginal price. Once producers behavior is influenced in this way there will be no uncertainty in the commodity market as to the validity of that producers discipline in this production allocation methodology. There would be no incentive for any producer to break away from the profits only production allocation methodology in the Preliminary Specification. Any production of unprofitable properties only reduces their overall profitability. There will be no doubt in the market that the commodity prices will hold at the industries marginal costs and the investors can be assured of consistent returns throughout the business cycle, the commodity markets will know that the sources of oil and gas are more reliable, stable financially and politically when profitable North American producers are providing their supply and that is managed as an effective profitable business.
Producers are more interested in pushing out the period of time in which they’ll need to act or account for this mess. If action should ever be required. This is the manner in which the industry is operated. A constant, chronic malaise is just part of the scenery and should be expected by anyone who wants to be associated with the industry. It just doesn’t have to be that way. And it's time to make the change that the bureaucrats can’t, won’t and will not ever do on their own.
The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for profitable North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.