Another Teachable Moment

One of the most costly aspects of business that an enterprise can incur is the cost of surplus capacity. It is the cost of capital that has been unproductively deployed. The only thing more costly than surplus capacity is if the enterprise continues to employ that surplus capacity and incurs inventory bloat leading to price declines. Luckily we have this problem in oil and gas for the past four decades and therefore this becomes what they call a teachable moment. This assumes that any bureaucrats are reading this blog which is highly improbable. Let's assume for a moment that oil and gas production needs to be scaled back by 15% in order to maintain the prices that are profitable and the market finds its equilibrium at those prices. A 15% reduction in all of the costs of the industry is not going to happen. The capital cost, which is the point regarding surplus capacity, is substantial and was unnecessarily incurred as the market doesn’t exist for that 15% surplus capacity of oil and gas. That shut-in production in terms of its capital cost is the cost that the producers have to carry as a result of overbuilding their capacities. The situation we have today, which in a capital intensive industry is particularly acute.

That we don’t notice this cost is as a result of the fact that the surplus capacity is producing at all times. Leading to the overproduction situation that has slaughtered commodity prices. The cost of this is adequately represented in our value proposition which we calculated at only $668 billion for 2017. If the capital employed by the industry is $1,620 billion then 15% is again only $243 billion. One of the most amazing aspects of these two costs is that these have been pointed out to the bureaucrats consistently, with the appropriate solution on this website, for many years now. Probably better than a decade in fact. Yet nothing has been done about the surplus overproduction, the oversupply or the over capacity. What has been done has been a successive series of attempts to deal with the individual who keeps writing about these issues.

We however should give full credit to the bureaucrats for their ability to snow the media with their claim of being innovative throughout 2017. Claiming that they had reduced their costs of capital by innovating on the method of drilling and completion. This stretch of the imagination has to win the grand prize of them all. There is no doubt that the producers were able to generate concensions from the service providers to have their wells drilled cheaper. However to suggest that this was a reason for the reduction in their overall costs is hideous. A producer may have about 5% of their wells in progress in any one year. The other 95% are completed and the costs for those are historical. You can’t do anything about the historical cost of what you paid for your car, and they can’t do anything about the historical cost they paid for a well two or ten years ago. What they did do in order to make it appear they were “innovative” was reduced the amount of depletion per barrel being recognized in 2017. The only thing that surprises me here is the ability of all the producers to sing from the same hymn sheet! The question is, when all the bureaucrats act in the same manner to deceive their shareholders, is that collusion?

And of course the bureaucrats were busy throughout the year cutting the number of pencils, Post-it-Notes and people they used in their organizations. These were the costs that occupied the little minds of the bureaucrats. Meanwhile they let the two largest costs that an organization can ever face let loose on the industry to reap their destruction. It’s almost like they didn’t understand where their money was going or their costs were! I’m sure they’ll figure it out soon. Acting to change the situation will however never be done as that requires action and that is something that hasn’t been seen in the industry for many decades.

Is it still the myth of “market rebalancing,” a phenomenon known only to oil and gas, and no other business, or economist in the world? Or has the oil price increase been attributable to the volume of oil that the Saudis and OPEC removed from the market with their production sharing agreement. I’m certain the bureaucrats would never accept that Middle East interests would have anything to teach them. It’s much like the Preliminary Specification, logic is difficult for them to comprehend. It's also so much easier to just mouth the words “market rebalancing” then deal with their two largest costs.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Profitable Production is not Collusion

When People, Ideas & Objects introduced the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production models price maker strategy. The oil and gas producers believed we had become the antichrist. Our price maker strategy was the last thing that they would ever consider. I was so surprised at the response that this idea had generated. As a result what we learned from this over the top response was that the price maker strategy was the solution to the issue at hand. If the bureaucrats didn’t believe in managing the supply by only producing profitable production, then they were the cause of the boom and bust cycle in the industry. I have to say that since that time we have come along way from the knee jerk reaction of the bureaucrats. To where the man on the street can see, and has ample evidence that both the commodities of oil and gas are subject to the principles of price makers. That the Saudis and OPEC have taught us a valuable lesson by implementing their production sharing agreement.

We are not implementing any method of collusion between the oil and gas producers to raise prices. We are seeking to find the marginal price by ensuring that all oil and gas production in North America is produced profitably everywhere and always. If it is not profitable then the property will be shut-in until such time as the producer is able to innovate on the costs, the production or reserves and return the property back to profitability and production. While any property is shut-in, as a result of the reorganization of the industry and producer that is undertaken by implementing the Preliminary Specification, it will incur a null operation. No profit, but also no loss. If only producing profitably is collusion then the “market” system is a means in which to collude. A ridiculous assertion and one the bureaucrats should be embarrassed to have considered and still supporting today.

Why don’t the bureaucrats implement the price maker strategy today and forget about the Preliminary Specification? Simply they can’t. They certainly know what the revenue, royalties, operating and capital costs are for each property. The difficulty is that all of the overhead that is incurred by the company is captured in the corporate overhead accounts. These are subsequently cleared by a large percentage, maybe 80% on average, to capital in the property, plant and equipment account. As a result only overhead allowances are charged to the individual properties. These overhead allowances distort the costs of the properties and no one knows the real costs to administer and account for a property. These distortions occur in two primary ways. Operators of properties are incurring all of the overhead on behalf of the non-operators who only pay their share of the allowances. And natural gas may be 5 - 6 times as difficult to administer and account for than oil.

Overhead allowance enable the properties to show a relatively equal amount of overhead being incurred at each property by each producer. The facts however as to how much overhead is incurred at the property are unknown and under the current systems unknowable. These overhead allowances overstate the profitability of the property and do not recognize the actual costs of operations. The actual costs of overhead are capitalized and appear immaterial, however, when determining what produces and what would be shut-in, the fudging of the numbers at this scale is unacceptable. It leads to the situation, somewhat like today, where every producer claims all their properties are profitable all the time. Hence the policies of capitalizing overhead and interest.

People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification corrects these distortions by reallocating the administrative and accounting resources of the producers into service providers headed up by members of our user community. The service provider will focus on one process and have the entire oil and gas industry as their client base. Using specialization and the division of labor, automation, innovation based on administrative and accounting expertise and having the computers work for us as their competitive advantages. Then if the property produces the service providers will receive that data through our task and transfer network. Complete the work that is needed for that property and then generate an invoice for the services that were provided to the individual Joint Operating Committee. If the property doesn’t produce then no data will be sent through the task and transfer network and as a result no work will be conducted by the service providers and no invoices will be generated. Creating the null operation for shut-in properties. It will be in this way too, that the producers will be able to focus on their unique competitive advantages of their land and asset base, and their earth science and engineering capabilities.

By implementing the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production models price maker strategy across the industry. We eliminate the overproduction that is created through the need to ensure that all of the overhead is covered. The Preliminary Specification converts the producers fixed overhead into the industries variable overhead based on production. And by doing so the producers will no longer have their unprofitable properties dilute their profitable properties. Save their reserves for the time when they can be produced profitably and ensure that they do not have to carry the additional costs of successive years losses to be earned in subsequent years. And the commodity markets will find their marginal price when the unprofitable production is removed from the commodity markets. This is how businesses operate. You don’t see GM overproducing continually. When demand is expected to decrease, they scale back production before their inventories bloat. It is constant throughout business and is not collusion. Oil and gas producers have used this lame excuse long enough, it's time to operate the oil and gas industry as a business and not as the bureaucrats piggy bank. OPEC has taught them a lesson about price maker, it's time for the industry to implement it.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

It Has to be the Users

Since the time we published the Preliminary Specification in December 2013. People, Ideas & Objects have focused on the development of our user community. They are our customers as they’re the ones who will be using the software through their service provider organizations. They will be the ones that are defining and developing the solutions that they need to conduct the administrative and accounting functions for the oil and gas industry. Providing them with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations.

The value of the Preliminary Specification is not just the idea of using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable producer. People, Ideas & Objects subsequently completed ten years of research into what the industry and producer would look like if we adopted the Joint Operating Committee. The outcome of that research is codified in the Preliminary Specification. Therefore user community members are not only getting the benefit of the idea of using the Joint Operating Committee but also the research that went into ensuring the idea was functional, fully tested and usable. Building from the foundation of this idea and research will be the work of the user community that I am expecting will begin sometime in 2018.

It is our user community vision that has control over the Intellectual Property and the derivative works that they prepare. At no time will People, Ideas & Objects developers look to, or take direction from anyone other than the user community. They’re our sole provider of understanding and direction with respect to the applications that we build. Producers will engage with the user community in order to have their issues and opportunities dealt with and developed. It is these two critical components that make up our user community vision. The user community controls the Intellectual Property that make up the applications and People, Ideas & Objects will only look to the user community for any developments. It is in this way that the user community has the power and authority to make the changes in the industry that are, and will be necessary.

What we can not have is the situation that the producers have created in the ERP space today. Where most of the time nothing happens in terms of developments of the software applications and the software vendors that do operate are being led by the small change that falls out of pockets of the producers. These software developers have become effectively blind sleeping walking agents of whomever will feed them. Bureaucrats have learned that software seals their fate and therefore any changes to something like the Preliminary Specification would render them redundant. The bureaucrats can no longer determine the method and means in which the software and developments are undertaken in oil and gas. If the Preliminary Specification has the value proposition we’ve discussed here today, what will it be in the future? How will that value proposition be generated and when? It will be the user community that determines where that additional value is available and generate it throughout the industry through changes in the software that they’ll develop. Which is what our user community vision enables, the power, authority and control to do so. Providing the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations is not a fixed destination. We will iterate on the software that we produce based on the ideas and thinking that the user community determines is the best direction of the oil and gas industry. This will be the key role of the user community. Continuous value added profitability for the oil and gas industry.

This is where People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model comes in to play. The coin holders that we’ll be sourcing our budget from to build the Preliminary Specification will be earning their 33% share of the value proposition through their permission rights. These revenues will support the payment of a variety of costs, of which the cost of the software is one. Included in the cost of the software is the user community. People, Ideas & Objects as the licensee of the Intellectual Property will collect these funds and distribute the user communities share.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

2018 Is Our Year

We have now reviewed the situation on the ground in the oil and gas industry. We can expect that nothing will be done about these issues as there is no pain or suffering being realized by the bureaucrats. I think everyone else on the North American continent can see things clearly and are wondering why nothing is being done. For me this time stands in stark contrast to the period when I was proposing we develop systems to address these issues and the oil prices were well over $100 and natural gas was north of $13. That is the time that the producers were laughing heartily at what was then being said. I see it as progress that they’re not laughing anymore. Late last year we moved along from ever expecting any action from the producers and proposed a plan that would see People, Ideas & Objects obtain funding and develop the Preliminary Specification. The full details of our plan, our argument regarding the industry and what we believe to be the best business opportunity are provided at those urls to this blog.

Our plan consists of a prosperous oil and gas industry. One in which we develop and implement the Preliminary Specification which provides the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. One that approaches the next 25 years as the best 25 years of the industry's history. A time where the industry achieves profitability in each one of those years. Funding their own capital expenditures, replaces and refurbishes the infrastructure that we see decaying with greater frequency on the daily news, a future in which the investors and bankers, past and present, are treated with respect and their money treated with the appropriate accountability and not used just to fund the discount to the energy consumer. An energy future where responsible people are making the appropriate decisions at the appropriate times and dealing with the opportunities and issues as they arise. An industry that doesn’t blame the Saudi’s or OPEC, a warm winter or just the way things are on their poor performance and lackadaisical “muddle along” strategy and “do nothing” operating procedure. An industry that has respect for those who have committed their careers to the professions in the industry and expect to have more seniority than what casual labor has in the construction industry. An industry that has respect for the work that is done in the service industry and works hand in hand with those innovative and dynamic people who make the industry operate. And yes will actually pay the people who work in the industry and service industry on a timely basis. A place where it's not an honour and privilege to still have a job but a place where you can make a difference. I expect more from the industry by proposing our plan, and dare to ask, what’s their plan?

2018 stands in stark contrast to our history. People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers have never been in the situation when oil prices have recovered somewhat and people know that the North American producer does not have the situation in hand. During upswings in the commodity prices people have had the tendency to forget about us and assume that things would be returning to normal. There is no normal anymore. All the excuses have been tried and none are being offered today. There are no plans in which to deal with the future of the oil and gas industry outside of People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers Preliminary Specification. After almost a decade of decline in natural gas and enough years in the downturn of the oil business. People are ready for action and ready to commit to what it will take to make the changes spelled out in our plan. 2018 is the year in which we move forward with this software development.

This means the time for action for user community participation begins in 2018. Preparation of your application for submission some time this year would be the ideal timing. It is ideal in terms of the timing for the oil and gas industry. People, Ideas & Objects are user community based software developments. Nothing will be done without our user community in place driving our development. User community software developments are the only way to develop useable, quality software. Development of our user community will be the commencement of our development and anything done in this arena brings us closer to our release date. It is our priority, our focus and the impediment to our delivery. The sooner we are able to organize ourselves the quicker our software will be built. Review of the application process and our user community vision are the two places in which people interested in these developments should start.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Investors Backfilling the Producers Cash Demands?

With the reserves of oil and gas that we discussed in yesterday’s post “The Era of Abundance.” We made it clear that operating a producer based on the short term goal of full production in order to generate as much cash as possible will never be a successful strategy. With the oil and gas reserves that the North American producers have the only rational, successful approach to the industry is to ensure that all of their production is produced profitably everywhere and all the time. Otherwise it will continue to be a spending exercise with no upside for anyone in society other than the handful of bureaucrats at each producer firm. The accounting that generates these false profits must change from what it is today and be determined on a reasonable basis from now on. As we’ve discussed repeatedly here at People, Ideas & Objects the methodologies that are used in the industry of recording capital assets are designed to reflect the value of the firm. This is the not the purpose of accounting, performance should be what the producers accounting is focused on. The dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer will seek to reduce their account balances of property, plant and equipment to zero as much as possible.

What has happened that has caused the situation in the market today is that there has been a chronic overinvestment that has led to the overproduction that we’re seeing. By not recognizing the capital costs of past production, producers have inflated their earnings attracting a higher level of interest from investors. The investors had invested their resources in good faith believing that the companies were earning those profits. Meanwhile the producers themselves, due to the fact that they were not recognizing their capital costs in a timely manner, were spending more cash than what they were generating. This cash shortfall was backfilled consistently through the annual shareholder issuance for the subsequent years capital expenditure program. Investors are never happy when they’re consistently diluted by subsequent share offerings. When the firm continues to grow and increase its profits they can handle a little dilution. What they can’t handle is finding out that through bad accounting and mismanagement the financial statements they were provided with in the past, which reflected growth and profitability, have now turned out to be misstatements. Hence we see the investors and bankers strike for the past three years and a chronic cash shortfall in the industry.

Accounting as a department has been effectively dealt with in oil and gas over the past few decades by providing them with the office floor space under the stairs. That way the bills that need to be paid can be shoved in there and they’ll get paid. No one needs to see or hear from them otherwise. On the other hand the accountants have been treated with such disrespect for several generations now that they don’t know any difference. They’re ability to assert themselves no longer exists and they have not filled their critical role in the organization. It is expected of them to pay the bills and ensure that everything that is spent is recorded as a capital asset because that is what the “ceiling test” allows. So they did what they were told instead of asserting a more appropriate performance related, active role in the management of the producer firm.

Bureaucrats caught onto the art of capitalizing costs in the mid 1980’s when the oil price collapsed to $10 and interest rates were high. This art and science began with the capitalization of interest and has only become as creative as those producers who today report 1.3% in annual G&A costs. The point of the exercise is to defer the recognition of any cost against the revenue so that your assets and profits are bigger than your neighbors and never stop growing. Allocating an equal amount of capital cost to each barrel of known reserves has some inherent accounting theory behind it. It however fails the reasonable test when the majority of those reserves will continue to expand over time and never be produced, or recognized, for decades. Meanwhile the production decline curve comes into play so that the need to recognize even less of the capital costs occurs in each successive year. People, Ideas & Objects approach is to recognize as much of these capital costs with the flush production and have all of the capital costs recognized as quickly as possible. That way the investment that was made in the property is recovered and returned in the form of cash to be reinvested again. Today the capital cost of past production, which is also the investors cash, sits for decades as the bureaucrats compare the size of their “well defended” and bloated balance sheets as if they’re something to admire.

Meanwhile, back in New York, the CEO is presenting to investors that for 5% more equity he could increase production by 20% and earnings would double. Who could lose? This “game” has been played since the late 1970’s when the SEC enabled the accounting for capital costs on this inflated asset and profit basis. Has now been figured out by those who have lost the most. The banks and investors. The reserve value of the firm is impressive when you take a TCF of gas times today’s price. The problem is that TCF of gas can’t be produced profitably. It doesn’t even generate as much cash as it consumes. This “game” has depleted the residual value throughout the industry. Nothing is worth anything as it requires capital to produce. It has a management that doesn’t understand this. And this lack of understanding is culturally ingrained across the industry.

I certainly could be wrong about the future intentions of the investors. Maybe they’re banging on the producers door looking to invest right now. Wanting to dilute themselves further and help out with the producers critical cash shortage to make the bureaucrats life that much more comfortable and prosperous. After all, I’ve been told that no one reads or understands financial statements.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

The Era of Abundance

As I write this natural gas prices are soaring by almost 10% for the day. No doubt this trajectory will continue indefinitely and as we noted the other day, the bureaucrats have already started the party. Their inaction regarding the decline in the oil and gas business over the past decade must be rewarded financially and handsomely. It’s days like these in which we can all rest assured that the bureaucrats will sleep well tonight. I had a discussion the other day with someone who had immigrated from Ethiopia. When I was growing up Ethiopia was subject to mass starvation which he noted was due to the King hoarding $6 billion and too proud to seek outside help. I mentioned that it sounded like the political mismanagement that Ethiopia was subject too was the same mismanagement that people are experiencing in oil and gas. The important thing is the King and the bureaucrats are doing fine.

One does not have to look very far to find substantial oil and gas reserves these days. Having a TCF of gas or more was the domain of the large integrated producers in the prior era of scarcity. Now it's common to see many TCF and a billion barrels of oil booked by producers that were startups a few decades ago. This is the real value of the producer. Valuing the reserves at the current price is what that producer is worth. Whether they paid this amount or that for the reserves, and if they have that value listed on the balance sheet is totally irrelevant. Accounting has nothing to do with the value of the firm. Accounting has everything to do with the management's performance of the money that the producer received from investors and bankers. Attempting to match the producers accounting to the valuation of the reserves is a foolish game that has presented the oil and gas producer with bloated balance sheets that now reflect they’ve never performed. They have always overstated their assets and overstated their profits by not recognizing the costs of capital in a capital intensive industry. Now they’re living with the consequences of doing this for the past four decades and they’re unable to make the issue disappear overnight. The capital costs of past production have to be accounted for in order to recognize the misstatements that they were profitable operations in the past. That will take a substantial amount of time and reflect that the bureaucrats were not as handsome as they originally appeared. Investors and bankers have caught on to the bureaucrats game and it would be foolish to think that they’ll forget it now.

The second issue producers have to deal with is that every other producer, other than themselves, are racing to put all of their reserves onto the commodity markets today. The chronic overproduction has been on the basis of a profitability that never materialized because it never recognized the capital costs of that production. These two issues create an interesting dilemma. Any attempt to curtail their production to increase the commodity price to the level necessary to earn a profit only allows the producer to lose when the industry has no production discipline. Everyone knows they can increase the price if everyone has production discipline, it's just not going to happen at my firm, the bureaucrat will say. The aggravating factor is the amount of reserves that exist now as a result of the shale boom and other technologies. The oil reserves are noted here.

Another recent development is that the U.S. is now estimated to hold more oil reserves than any other nation. Estimates in 2016 by Rystad Energy indicate the U.S. tops Saudi Arabia and Russia. More than half of U.S. oil is in unconventional shales, which rely on fracking to produce. Although the cost to produce such oil can be higher than conventional wells, when the economics are right it will be tapped. Rystad Energy also estimated that total global recoverable oil reserves were about 2.1 trillion barrels, about 70 times the current production rate and far in excess of cumulative production up to 2015 of 1.3 trillion barrels.

The situation with natural gas reserves is even much more difficult.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that as of January 1, 2015, there were about 2,355 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of technically recoverable resources of dry natural gas in the United States. At the rate of U.S. dry natural gas consumption in 2015 of about 27.3 Tcf per year, the United States has enough natural gas to last about 86 years. The actual number of years will depend on the amount of natural gas consumed each year, natural gas imports and exports, and additions to natural gas reserves.

Technically recoverable reserves consist of proved reserves and unproved resources. Proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas are the estimated volumes expected to be produced, with reasonable certainty, under existing economic and operating conditions. Unproved resources of crude oil and natural gas are additional volumes estimated to be technically recoverable without consideration of economics or operating conditions, based on the application of current technology. 

Having production discipline in an era of such abundance requires the current mismanagement to be replaced with the appropriate business model and organization of the producer and industry. We propose the Preliminary Specification which provides for the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Ensuring that all production produced everywhere in North America is always profitable. However, before that it would be appropriate for the bureaucrats to compensate themselves for the days 10% increase in natural gas prices. Based on these reserves, it may be a long time before they get another chance to compensate themselves for their inaction. They better make their take as good as they can.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

No Action Here!

Word on the street is that the increase in shale oil production that may occur in 2018 is going to be “explosive.” With the deferral of the recognition of the capital costs of these operations we know they’ll all be profitable too. How “explosive” can shale based reservoirs be? One look at the performance of the deliverability of shale based natural gas and we can get a sense of what “explosive” means. In 2016 there was believed to be a downturn beginning in shale gas production. Deliverability declined for whatever reason, but most probably due to the lack of capital in all shale basins. Monthly average dry gas production declined from over 75 bcf / day to a low of a little over 70 bcf / day. During late 2016 and 2017 deliverability “exploded” to about 77 bcf / day with this trajectory continuing for the foreseeable future. It is now very clear to everyone that the bureaucrats have complete control over this resource when the natural gas prices being earned on this production are around $3.20.

We see a very similar trend in oil production with an upward trend starting in late 2011 at 5.8 million barrels per day, continuing that trajectory until June 2015 with 9.6 million barrels per day, then declining to 8.5 million barrels per day in September 2016 and then resuming its prior trajectory to where it stands now at 9.8 million barrels per day. What both of these commodities “explosive” production growth in the 2017 period reflects is that the oil and gas industry is nothing but a spending machine. Without control or consideration of anything other than “more” which is what you’ll find in common with the average junkie. This is the business of the oil and gas business, if you still consider the oil and gas business a business. I haven’t for a while. I recall at the beginning of these uptrends Bloomberg interviewing Mr. Harold Hamm CEO of Continental Resources who said that this time it was going to be different, “we have discipline now.” Does anyone know what these trajectories and the unconstrained production “explosiveness” reflects for the future of the industry?

Speculation is also forming that the increase in North America’s shale oil production will lead to difficulties in OPEC maintaining their production sharing agreement. Nothing will be said by any of its participants regarding the agreement, however it may be found to be too difficult to continue with any extensions of the time beyond 2018. The speculation also suggests that what we may see is a breakdown in the excellent discipline that has been displayed to this point. That cheating on the individual country quotas will begin in a small way and then begin to accelerate. In the face of such continued pressure on the market by new U.S. production, that has no discipline or business attributes, what alternatives are available to the OPEC producers? The only way in which the North American producer can approach the easily attainable goal of energy independence is through the application of sound business practices which involves profitable production everywhere and all the time. What is clear is that we do not have those behaviors in the industry today, nor have we had them for the last four decades. A revision of the behaviours and culture of the industry is necessary. The only way in which that would happen will be by implementing the decentralized production model of the Preliminary Specification. Until then get used to the rhythm.

What North American producers are not talking about today is as telling as their one true and unforgiving behavior. If the value of their stock only increased by 50% in comparison to the percentage increase in the price of oil, what would happen now if there was a decline in the price of oil? What actions are they taking to ensure that the business is sustainable in the long run? What changes are being made to ensure that they become and continue profitable operations everywhere and always? I would think that these topics would be the ones that are the primary concerns of the North American based producers. I see no evidence of that. Nothing has been done to address any of these issues whatsoever. They just need a quick fix of new production and fresh cash. To let the issue of their investors and bankers strike continue for a third year without addressing those needs is particularly disconcerting. What is it that the investors are telling the producers? It’s that they’re not enamoured with the oil and gas business. That they want to see changes before they’ll get involved any further. The are the facts and the common knowledge of the people on the street.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

The Party is Just Getting Started!

Investors are thrilled with the knowledge that higher commodity prices are currently being realized by their producer firms. And yet, at the same time they know they’ll never see any of that money. Bureaucrats are the new dominant power in corporate america. They’re holding on to the promise that the current trajectory of commodity prices will continue. And it will be the bureaucrats themselves who will realize whatever the value proposition that is realized from the higher commodity prices. It will be the bureaucrats who reap that reward. After all they did everything that could possibly have been done, since the beginning of the natural gas price downturn, to earn what they will now begin to take from the industry.

That is certainly one probable outcome of the current situation. I give it a 50/50 chance as to what the future holds. The other scenario is that a continuation of the overproduction and oversupply is established by the current producers. It would be regrettable to go down the path of lower commodity prices once again, however, I think that is what the bureaucrats current business model guarantees. Production of everything, everywhere and all the time will continue as always. There are allegedly 7,600 ducks that need to be completed. This may take some time to complete however, investments in horsepower at the fracing companies is frantic. Does anyone remember how this movie ends?
I am suggesting that this may be the last hurrah for the oil price for the foreseeable future. When natural gas prices collapsed there were a number of rallies that were precipitated by the belief in the oncoming cold winter. Eventually the story became lame and tiring and no one was listening to the natural gas producers anymore. What happened then, in my opinion, was a capitulation of that market by all concerned. Instead of trading at its long term historical 6 to 1 in comparison to oil, natural gas now trades at 19.96 to 1 to oil. A commodity market that has been fundamentally destroyed by overproduction and oversupply. Initially only in North America, however, now globally. Which is where we maybe heading in the oil market. Back when the natural gas prices did collapse “the real deal was the oil market,” didn’t everyone know. I wonder where the real deal is today? In January 2014 natural gas prices did spike to over $6.00 for a very brief period before collapsing once again into the high $1.00 range.

What parallels can we draw from the natural gas market that might be applicable to the oil market today? I think we’ll soon find out. What the Saudi’s strategy is in terms of their production portfolio is unknown and probably unknowable. The IPO of Saudi Aramco is a once in lifetime chance for them to realize some substantial cash inflow to the kingdom. Propping that up with higher oil prices seems logical to me and may be the motivation behind the current production sharing agreement within OPEC and Russia. That IPO is scheduled for some time in 2018. Was the Saudi strategy previous to that to eliminate the high cost shale production that precipitated the decline in oil prices? There are people who suggest that once the IPO is completed the Saudi’s, as the lowest cost producer, will once again resume that strategy and produce at their maximum deliverable to ensure they achieve some value from their resource. In a market where the highest cost producer continues to overproduce that is the only strategy available to them. Continuing to cede market share to the highest cost shale producers is the most illogical business strategy being employed on the planet. If the Saudi’s just focus on delivering product to their customers, the high cost producers will eventually blow themselves up.

Therefore the behaviors of the North American producers, the history of these producers in the natural gas side of the business and its commodity markets, and whatever strategy the Saudis are employing make the oil and gas industry a difficult sell. Alternatively if the bureaucrats are having all of their Christmas’ arrive at once and the price upswing continues and is permanent. Then the party will begin in earnest and should truly never stop. I personally don’t believe that there has ever been a better time for People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and the service providers. No one anywhere believes the bureaucrats have this under control. No one believes they’re making any money. No one believes the prices won’t revisit their lows, and to eliminate that belief may take many years of very high prices to prove otherwise. People, Ideas & Objects have convinced the market that we have the solution to low oil and gas prices. And now we have the added feature that if prices do go up, the only upside is for the bureaucrats who have always taken all of the money for themselves and done absolutely nothing for it. That is, they’ve done nothing for the oil and gas business.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Could've, Would've, Should've

Yesterday we calculated the approximate annual cost of maintaining the bureaucracy and their failed business model. It is this failed business model that concerns the oil and gas investor. It is this failed business model that everyone in society sees as the reason for their difficulties. And they know and understand that it’s not necessary. They know that a solution that could’ve, should’ve and would have provided the answer to these difficulties was available. The bureaucrats think that our value proposition calculations are ludicrous and unreasonable. Bureaucrats believe they are profitable today and the changes brought about by the Preliminary Specification would generate public distaste for the industry. Therefore they will continue with the status quo and the remaining people within the industry, those within the service industry, the investors, the royalty holders and the governments who collect taxes on the profits of the producers and the otherwise prosperous companies and people will all have to live without. The important thing to remember is the bureaucrats are fine.

Is it reasonable to assume that the 2017 value proposition of $673 billion would be a windfall for the producers? If we could make the assumption that no additional resources from this incremental money would go to the bureaucrats, what additional costs would these revenues generate. First there would be the royalties that would be due on the incremental revenues. These have been calculated at 25% to take a reasonable average understanding that all of the gas cost allowances have been depleted already. That would reduce the revenues to $505 billion. In addition there would be incremental taxes that had to be paid. Just the Federal income tax of 21%, understanding again that all costs have already been deducted, brings the net proceeds down to $399 billion.

Now we deduct the costs associated with our Initial Coin Offering that is associated with the development of the Preliminary Specification. We are funding our budget through the issuance of a coin based on the blockchain. Included with this coin are the Permission Rights that are granted to the coin holders which enable them to hold the exclusive access rights to the People, Ideas & Objects software that is developed. If producers/investors/individuals or whoever want to participate and earn the value proposition in the oil and gas industry. They will need to fund the costs and then they can control the access to the software in order to achieve that value proposition. Bureaucrats who don’t want to participate in this manner should start considering what reason they’ll be providing their shareholders as to why they’re not participating in the value proposition.

The value that is determined to be the compensation for the coin holders, in exchange for them building the Preliminary Specification, is one third of the value proposition. Therefore another $133 billion would be paid to them for that purpose and the remaining $266 billion would be left for those who hold the title on the producing oil and gas leases. I have stated for many years it’s no longer enough to own the oil and gas asset. It’s also necessary to have access to the oil and gas software that makes the asset profitable. This is the reflection of that principle and a reflection of the way things are changing in the marketplace.

With a $267 billion annuity on hand and the existing bureaucrats that we have today. The smartest investment would be to invest in real estate on the island of Hawaii. Which might be a clear indication that we not only don’t need the bureaucrats, we really don’t want them. This $267 billion needs to be used to retire the bloated balances of property, plant and equipment that exist on the oil and gas producers balance sheets across the industry. I have calculated these balances, on an approximate basis, to total $1,620 billion. Therefore on the basis of the 2017 information that will take 5.89 years in order to exhaust the balances of property, plant and equipment across the industry. The difference between the 5.89 years and the 30 months that we used in calculating the prices is the extra burden of the societal costs, which we discussed on Tuesday. Reflecting the cost that the industry is responsible for. I’ll leave it to others to determine if we should determine a faster amortization of the outstanding property, plant and equipment bloat, or if even higher prices are required than the $126.55 which was used in this example. Remember I am not talking about tax policy here. I am not talking about the valuation of the company, that is for stock markets. We are talking about the performance of the producers and converting them from the investment dead zone to ones that perform.

With the retirement of the bloated balances of property, plant and equipment this will leave the industry with a commensurate amount of cash. Over the course of 5.89 years that would total $1,620 billion. An opportunity to pay the shareholders for the work they’ve done in the past number of decades. In addition, with the bloating of the asset value of the producer there has also been a bloating of the debt. With interest rates on the upswing the industry doesn’t need to enter a phase of renewed jeopardy as a result of being too heavily indebted. These balances need to be paid down with the cash resources obtained by these policies.

Lastly, looking at the 25 year horizon and the objective of energy independence in North America’s oil and gas industry. How will that be done with the current bunch? No earnings, no cash, no support from investors or bankers. Energy independence is not a dream its bullshit. With the value proposition policies being discussed here. Where the consumers are paying for the full costs of energy. Current and past. Society can depend on a profitable and productive oil and gas industry. Investors are rewarded for the risks they take and people can plan their careers and lives around the high probability that they will be able to remain consistently and gainfully employed in oil and gas for their entire working lives. Then the industry will be able to look at the future horizon and plan on energy independence and deal with the many difficulties that objective would present. Only then would it be possible to do so.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Our Value Proposition, Defined

During the Christmas break I was able to review our 2017 calculations for the value proposition of implementing the Preliminary Specification in North America. The incremental value proposition of the producers would have been $673 billion for 2017 if they had implemented the Preliminary Specification on a timely basis. Even with $3.00 natural gas, and $60.00 oil these prices remain woefully inadequate to cover the costs of oil and gas exploration and production on the basis of a reasonable accounting. The prices that we calculated that were necessary in order to generate this value were $126.55 / boe for 2017. These prices are what are required to recognize the current cost of exploration and production but also deal with the bloated balance sheets of the producers. Depleting the producers existing balances in thirty months. Which would subsequently leave a thirty month balance of property, plant and equipment at the end of the thirty month period in which the asset bloat is being retired. Thirty months being the outside limit of what I feel would be acceptable for any firm in the 21st century.

The Saudi’s announced recently that their revenues for 2017 were higher than in 2016. Even though production volumes were lower than in 2016, 2017 prices were so much higher as to make a material difference in revenue. What’s that saying, you can either make it up on volume or price. A lesson the oil and gas bureaucrats should learn. This pricing behaviour is also consistent with the oil commodity being a price maker. A feature of the Preliminary Specification. However, bureaucrats accuse us of collusion, which is about the most ridiculous thing I think I’ve ever heard. Continuing to produce unprofitable production that dilutes profitable production is proof that the oil and gas producers are not colluding? Our price maker strategy is not collusion, its business, why would anyone continue to lose money in any part of their business?

What purpose would there be in retiring these bloated balances of property, plant and equipment? These balances reflect the capital costs of past production. The costs that were not recognized when they should have been, and as a result made the bureaucrats performance look much better than it was and is. Any wonder that they’ve chosen not to implement the Preliminary Specification? By recognizing these costs in the thirty months, after the Preliminary Specifications price maker strategy is implemented, will enable the producers to capture these prior investments back in the form of cash. Then, with the appropriate management, the producer will be able to fund their own capital expenditures, pay down debt and return these funds to the shareholders in the form of dividends. Producers have had their hand out for capital investment each and every year for decades saying they had to build the industry. It was then, as it is now, a mature industry and should be managed as such.

By implementing the Preliminary Specification it would change much of the culture of the industry. Production discipline would be enabled that would ensure that all production everywhere and all the time was profitable. Producers would learn that producing properties that lose money diminish their profitable properties and that is the reason they’re consuming cash. Exploration and production would become economically more dynamic. The criteria used to spend money today is loose and I would say undisciplined. This would tighten up as the probability that a producer would spend capital resources on a shut-in property becomes highly probable. The ceiling test is the greatest excuse known to mankind. As long as the producer is within the ceiling test they will continue to spend like drunken sailors and capitalize everything including their postage stamps and Post-it-Notes. Deferring the recognition of the capital costs in a capital intensive industry for decades. The ceiling test defines the outer limit of what is acceptable. That does not mean that each and every producer must reach that point each and every year. The dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable producer will seek to recognize their capital costs as quickly as they are capable of. In doing so they will have cash balances that exceed the gold reserves of the United States. And it is here therefore that there will have to be a significant cultural change. Cash balances do not mean that they’re to be spent immediately and can be used for other purposes. Certainly not for rewarding the bureaucrats who have contributed nothing to the success and profitability of the industry.

The logic proposed in the Preliminary Specification is the logic necessary to run a successful and profitable oil and gas industry. Bureaucrats have implemented a business model that has failed fundamentally and has created deep and difficult issues for society at large. It is no wonder that oil and gas bureaucrats are against this initiative. Does anyone believe that the current commodity prices will survive the next upturn in drilling and completions. Last week we saw 15 new rigs deployed in the United States. Christmas vacations are officially over. New production is the only source of cash for the producer. If they don’t pay the driller for 18 months thats a cash windfall that can’t be ignored. All that new production ensures the bureaucrats get paid for that much longer before they slip out the back door.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.