Clouds on the Horizon
I have documented the technical differences between price maker and price taker in the Preamble of the Preliminary Specification. Please review it for further details of how the oil and gas commodities hold the characteristics of price makers. If we want to have the oil and gas commodity markets change their behavior then we’re going to have to change the behavior of the North American producers. These producer changes are going to have to be made before there will ever be any changes in the commodity markets. This will require the implementation of the Preliminary Specification. Just think of the number of years that we’ve been in this economic decline as a result of low natural gas prices. And how many years have oil prices been depressed. I can assure you, based on the history and behavior that I saw in the late 1980’s and 1990’s that there will be no changes in either the commodity markets or of the producers if we just give it more time. The level of destruction has been too severe as it stands now. If the situation is as I suspect this summer, we are about to experience a crisis of leadership and financial liquidation.
The producers have employed what could be considered strategic patience in letting the industry muddle along through this destructive phase. Now everyone sees that the North American producer has to act to deal with the situation. Everyone sees that the producers have nothing in terms of an answer for the market. Investors and bankers may form the conclusion that shale is non-commercial. There is nothing for investors in the North American sector of the industry. Except for losing their investment, joining with the bureaucrats in admiration of the producers bloated balance sheets or participating further with suicidal producer firms that require you to invest more cash, or they’ll go under. If an investor raises these points what will a producer argue? We just need more time! Enough time has been wasted watching everything go to waste. At what point will action occur?
You could argue with me about the timing of the collapse of oil prices this summer. And I agree that it may not happen this summer, but does anyone doubt that it’s in our future? Can the industry afford to lose another year due to inaction? If the investors, after employing their own strategic patience with the bureaucrats, expecting them to have done something about the situation by now, are on the verge of determining that oil and gas is uneconomic, why would it be necessary to prove it? Another year will only make it more difficult to convince the investors that you’ve subsequently obtained that old time religion of profits. Another year will also invoke that scenario of BP’s Chief Economist where the low cost producers decide to get some value for their product and just produce at whatever price. OPEC has seen what happens when they cut production. North American producers rush in to fill the void. If you wait another year, OPEC will certainly outproduce you and your investors will have lost their strategic patience. How can producers proceed forward from September 2017 without a plan in place to deal with these two highly probable scenarios?
Who will save these prices from falling further for a decade or more and who will save the industry? What can the North American producers do to prove to their investors that they have the situation in hand and will remediate it, and what actions will give OPEC the assurance that they would be premature in giving up on the undisciplined North American producer. That they indeed had become producers of profitable production and would be responsible participants in the market! To be candid I’m putting my money on Santa as being the one that saves us, because he arrives much sooner than the Easter Bunny and they call me an optimist.
We have a plan called the Preliminary Specification that the North American producers can adopt and begin developments on September 25, 2017. If they hustled they could look like they were men of action. Women too. We need our first years financing of $100 million of which, as I’ve stated many times before, I’m doing nothing about. I expect the producers to organize themselves and raise this cash. If they’re relying on me and the resources that I have, then they’ll be letting their investors and the other participants in the oil and gas marketplace down in a big way.
The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.