Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part XXIV

From my corner of the Internet I hear the echo of this blog pretty clearly. What is surprising to me is that outside of this little corner, there doesn’t seem to be too much concern for what’s going on. Reading the quarterlies, as far as the producer is concerned, is left to those two or three people who actually read them. Otherwise it’s on with show. This is very disconcerting and alarming. Producers are not generating enough cash in order to qualify as viable businesses. In the past they had hedges. Those dropped off in early 2016 and now the producers are fully exposed to the commodity price collapse. In some cases 2016 revenues are barely half of 2015’s. Producers are not covering the cash costs of their operations. Clouded by refinancings the drainage of value from the industry is epic. And it's at a pace that won’t take long before the doors start closing. Of course this is based on the fairy tale accounting of the SEC which puts a gloss on everything as it is anyway. These firms continue to sit on outsized asset balances which make the situation look better than it is.

I heard the other day an economist state that the commodity price declines are over. And that the industry could now begin the rebuilding process. Sorry, which industry? Which leads me to believe that economists are always optimistic, and generally wrong. Which begs the question why are we still listening to these people. When did they earn the credibility that they lost during the financial crisis. Only one economist, Nouriel Roubini, warned about the financial disaster that was about to occur in 2008. The rest were laughing at him. Anyone looking out the window could generally see that Noriel was right. It’ll be a long time before I start listening to economists again. Especially when the financial condition of the industry is this bleak.

What is needed is some adult supervision. Some industry leader needs to stand up and say that this situation is untenable and begin the process of righting this ship. Or we will all be going down with it very soon. The operating base of the industry. The core of what provides value in the industry has been eroded to the point where it is not safe for anyone. The healthy producers, those that can swim, are being drawn under water by those that are desperate for cash. Producing anything and everything despite the consequences. Selling anything and everything, irrespective of the price or costs they paid. Making the value of everything for everyone worth less. As more healthy swimmers are pulled underwater they are forced to hang on to other healthy swimmers and soon everyone drowns.

In all cases the value of the producer has been substantially eroded in the third quarter of 2016. No one is able to deal with this situation on their own anymore. Everyone, the startups, intermediates and the integrateds are all being affected severally and comprehensively from this collective drainage of value. Any remedial efforts on an individual producer level are moot. It's a collective issue that is industry wide. The decline in commodity prices was the beginning. The accounting masking the losses for so long. Now the losses being fully realized only show that the momentum is against the industry.

If we don’t stop this it will get the better of us. Looking the other way, which is what the producers are doing, is not the answer. The business is deteriorating. The deterioration is accelerating at a remarkable pace. I may be biased but the only way to turn this around is to have the Preliminary Specification in place. And that won’t be a timely solution. But if the industry doesn’t hear that “jarring gong,” then it won’t be too long from now.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part XXIII

What the existing producers refuse to accept is that the oil and gas commodities are “price makers.” In economics there are price makers and price takers. One characteristic of price maker is that small changes in supply / demand have a significant impact on price. Price takers, bottled water for example, are not affected by increases in supply / demand. There could be five new bottled water providers in the market tomorrow, the price for a bottle of water would be the same. These are established economic principles that are in effect in economies everywhere. Oil and gas does not compete with any other form of energy. They are monopolistic in their use. This also supports their classification as price maker. You can’t lubricate your engine with nuclear power, carry electricity in a bucket or establish a chemical plant near a hydro dam.

The Preliminary Specification makes the assumption that oil and gas are price makers and have adopted that as the strategy for the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producers. Using our decentralized production model which is designed to allocate production across the industry based on profitability. If the property is profitable, based on a consideration of all of the costs, then the property produces. These decisions will be evaluated independently by the members of the Joint Operating Committee based on the detailed, actual accounting of the property. When the existing producers see our price maker strategy, they state that its collusion and walk away. The line being sold to the investors by the existing producers hasn’t been questioned, yet. Some day someone will look up from these financial statements and suggest that enough is enough. Today, for now, it's impossible to challenge the conventional wisdom.

What need is there for the industry to consider the decentralized production model and our price maker strategy? Crisis, what crisis? Certainly it's bad for the investors, the service industry and the people that work in the industry. Have we seen any action in the C suite? Husky had their CEO retire but that may just be in the normal course of business. There’s no crisis when it comes to the people who are making the decisions in these producer firms. They’re fine thank you. Why would they want to expend the effort and disrupt their lives in order to make changes that wouldn’t have them sticking around for very long?

And so it is the industry gets drawn down into a bigger pit than the previous quarter. The hope that things will turn around ever present and endlessly promoted. The damage being done day by day is tragic and irreversible. Commodity prices will not turn around until such time as the North American producers institute some method of production allocation. In natural gas we’ve seen for six years this overproduction and it doesn’t stop. In oil it's the same thing over almost a three year period. Everyone has cut their capital budgets but that only cuts the marginal activities and in turn focuses the producer on sharpening their pencils. It's the same story each quarter, only the losses are getting larger. The cash being generated is smaller and the difficulties more substantial. They won’t stop wasting away, they just don’t care.

Which leaves us with the evidence that the startup producer needs. They won’t be challenged at any point by the existing producers, who won’t be in business for long either. The kind of damage being done to the established producer today is permanent. Therefore by using our price maker strategy, the startup oil and gas producer will be able to ensure their investors that they’ll be able to provide them with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations at all times. Something that should’ve always been the case in an industry where the commodities hold characteristics of “price makers.” Oil and gas is just not currently managed as a business, more of a personal petty cash for those fortunate few.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part XXII

Review of producers third quarter reports is very disheartening. As I suspected nothing has changed in the steep and downward decline of the industry. What’s the plan to deal with the way the industry is losing money? What’s the plan to reclaim the money that has been lost in the past number of years? Nothing, not a word. Just “muddle through” as before, as it will be in the future. How have these losses and overall destruction become the accepted norm in the industry? What are the origins of this attitude and why is it happening? Difficult questions, to which all that I get in response are blinking and stares back from those that I ask. The optimization of quarterly performance over the past decades have eroded not only the business, but also the capabilities of the producers.

Natural gas prices declined 15% last week. The biggest decline ever. Seems that storage is almost full and the winter isn’t going to be that cold after all. Oil is well below $46. Seems none of the Opec producers were that serious about the agreement that was prematurely announced. This is what passes for planning in the industry. Hoping that commodity prices will rise. That someone else will do something to make things better. Nonetheless, the implied commentary during the second quarter was that the third quarter would bring the turnaround of the industry. 2015 was the worst year ever. 2016 is looking even worse. Being asked to be patient is one thing, but when no actions are being taken, there is being fed a line.

There are trillions of dollars at stake. Don’t believe me, run the numbers for yourself. Determine what prices it would take for the industry to be profitable. Deduct the current prices and apply that across the production profile of North America. Then determine what it would be for the next 25 years. Add in the amount of capital expenditures that have been incurred but never accounted for. Add the future capital expenditures that will be accounted for under the Preliminary Specification, as we will be returning those dollars back to the investors too. My numbers are well known and I’m certain that your’s will be much higher.

We have clearly defined that the startup oil and gas producer has a prosperous future for the rest of this century and most particularly the next 25 years. They have the opportunity to purchase the current producing infrastructure from the existing producers as they wither away to oblivion. Selling assets to meet the cash shortfall is the future of those without any plans or ability to deal with the issues and opportunities in the business. The startups will acquire these assets and rehabilitate them into profitable operations by using the Preliminary Specification. Building significant value for themselves. Then, they will be able to access the value proposition of People, Ideas & Objects that we have determined to be in the range of $25.7 to $45.7 trillion for North America. Lastly the startups will be able to generate even more opportunity and value by way of ensuring that North America achieves energy independence.

Setting out with a startup today would be a worthwhile journey for these next 25 years. What is the long term future of these existing producers. What are they planning on doing? Will the investment community continue to sacrifice themselves for these producers? Complaining about Opec’s overproduction of natural gas in North America, or other such nonsense. And it will be to muddle along. So which side of the fence are you on. Which side of the fence is the producer that you work for on. Is a change necessary? I can understand that a 25 year horizon is too far for some people to contemplate. They may want to retire in 5 years or so. Which is fine, they should stay with their existing producer and ride that train to the end of the line. It’s just important to choose.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part XXI

The realization that investors and bankers have been subsidizing the consumption of energy for the past four decades is beginning to permeate the minds of those in the marketplace. Investors have invested in good faith, the producers report those investments on the balance sheet as property, plant and equipment. Yet the entire producing infrastructure of the industry isn’t worth $0.02 because it takes billions of dollars each year to keep it operating. This issue is clearly evident today, finally, as a result of the shale reserves causing the overproduction to be so acute. The issue has been present in the industry since the time the SEC began this foolish accounting methodology and it should have stopped long ago. Was it only me that saw things this way? No.

The amount of assets sitting on producer balance sheets is enormous. Amounts that, when you calculate the annual capital expenditure increases and depletion decreases, will last for at least a quarter century or more. At which time they’ll become collectable, I guess. These are the costs of exploration and production. They need to be recognized and deducted from the prices of oil and gas and passed onto the consumers who use the commodity. Investors don’t frame the property, plant and equipment account balances and put them in with their precious works of art. Letting these balances balloon to ridiculous levels is the reason that this downturn has no resiliency in terms of its return to normal. All the value that was invested or built up in the industry has been frittered and wasted with nothing left but a producing infrastructure in critical care and on life support.

Today the solution is we need to implement the Preliminary Specification. It will do two things that are not being done in the industry today. It will recognize all of the costs of oil and gas. And it will allocate production volumes across the industry fairly and equitably. Moving these capital costs to the income statement won’t be done quickly. Producers are going to need to do it. Just because the SEC dictates the methodology doesn’t mean that every producer reaches the outer limit of acceptability of that methodology every year. The SEC provides a range of what is possible and the lower limit should be used to rapidly accelerate a decline in the balance of property, plant and equipment. That way industry can be self funding, pay investors a dividend and pay off the debts it has incurred. That then would qualify them as a business.

Shale based reservoirs make the allocation of production volumes necessary. It seems everyone these days is walking around with at least 5 tcf of gas. All of this gas is currently rushing to market as quickly as possible. A similar situation is occurring in oil. Allocating production based on profitability is therefore the only reasonable and fair means in which to allocate production. Profitability has to consider the capital costs under a reasonable depletion methodology. Deferring all of the capital costs depletion for 25 years is not a means to calculate profitability in a capital intensive industry.

Within the Preliminary Specification these issues are resolved through our decentralized production model and price maker strategy. Our software defines and supports a reorganization of the producer and industry. The producer is reduced to the C class executives, the earth science and engineering resources, some land and legal, with some support staff. The remaining administrative and accounting resources are reallocated to service providers who focus on one process and use the entire industry as their client base. Then, based on a detailed and accurate accounting, when a property doesn’t achieve profitability the decision can be made to shut-in the property. This enables the producer to save that properties reserves for a time when they can be produced profitably. Increase the producer's profitability by eliminating unprofitable production. And reduce the volume of the commodity in the market, enabling it to find the marginal cost.

Within the Preliminary Specification and the service providers that are defined and supported by our software. That shut-in property does not create any information in People, Ideas & Objects task & transfer network that distributes data to the service providers. Therefore the service providers will not be providing any services to the property, no billing for any services will be rendered and no costs for administrative or accounting services will be incurred by the property. The shut-in property will therefore incur what we call a null operation. No revenues, no royalties, no operating costs, and no overhead.

This is how we can turn the industry back to profitable operations. Start to rebuild the value that has been destroyed in the past four decades. This is part of the plan contained within the Preliminary Specification. The existing producers think that they have it under control. They have no plan, and have not identified the scope of the destruction that they’ve created. If you think it’s bad in oil and gas now, just wait, it will get worse. However, with this level of destruction, the level of creation is inversely correlated. Making this the best business opportunity, ever.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part XX

I may be over the top in terms of my criticism of the industry. Which may be, but it doesn’t matter, they’ll never act to fix these issues. I find it difficult to watch the demise of so much value. Particularly when you have a solution in hand that sets the industry on the path to reclaim this value, establish a new basis of operation that will ensure that the producer is provided with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations and we would then have the means in which to approach energy independence on the North American continent. With the Preliminary Specification we have a plan in hand to make the industry achieve these objectives. What’s the plan today? Where are we going and how are we going to get there? Who’s driving the bus? Clearly no one is and we’ll just limp along until some tragic event comes about and we can all say, “no one thought of that.”

To set out a plan in this day and age requires the software for the organizations within the industry to be defined and built. Nothing happens anymore without software being in place first. Want to fix the overproduction issues in oil and gas, you’ll need a plan and the ability to build some software. People just can’t move into the positions that are needed anymore. When the economies were simple it was obvious what was needed and people filled the gaps and growth was the result. Now we stand on the shoulders of giants and we need to build off a very highly defined specialization and division of labor with a defined objective to be reached. That can no longer be done in the way it was in the past. In the past we relied on “spontaneous order” to make the changes in the division of labor for us. Spontaneous order can no longer function when the process and functionality of the organization are cemented in by the software that it uses. Without a defined software development capability our organizations are permanently cemented and sealed in the software that the organizations use.

We published this knowledge in our Preliminary Research Report in May 2004. It is derived of Professors Anthony Giddens Theory of Structuration and Wanda Orlikowski application of Structuration to technology. People, Ideas & Objects were then beginning the process of the work that we’re doing today. We were seeking support from industry to build ERP software on the basis of the Joint Operating Committee. It was the time in which the industry turned against us and ostracized me because of this work. They also took this understanding that software defines and supports the organization and perverted it by never changing the software that they used. And hence establishing their franchise to be unimpeachable.

Where we go from here is we establish the permanent software development capability that People, Ideas & Objects have proposed in the Preliminary Specification. We establish the user community as a permanent organization within the oil and gas industry. User community members are independent, qualified people who are trusted with the vision and direction of the Intellectual Property that is the Preliminary Specification and its derivative works. Our software developers only look to the user community for their definitions of the software that we build. We have detailed the user community vision here. It provides an understanding of the unique way in which this organization has been established and why this is not your grandfather's user community. User community based software developments are the only developments that I will be associated with. They are the only ones that meet the needs of the users.

For the startup oil and gas producer the Preliminary Specification sets in place all of these components. Providing everyone with the plan on how to deal with the industry and producer related issues for the 21st century. Giving them the tools in the form of the user community and software development capability that form the Intellectual Property that ensures their organizations maintain this as the best business opportunity, ever.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part XIX

The extraction of value from the oil and gas industry as a result of the accounting methods dictated by the SEC may be difficult for some to comprehend. It is believed that having big asset values on the balance sheet of your producer firm is the ideal situation at all times. With People, Ideas & Objects argument being counter to this, these capital costs should be recognized by moving them to the income statement as soon as possible. Which has large implications in terms of the value that is generated in the industry. Currently all of the costs of exploration and production are “stored” on the balance sheets of the producers. These costs have generally never been recognized on a timely basis and since this is a systemic, industry wide, multi-decade issue, this practice has created serious distortions in the oil and gas industry. By moving these costs from the balance sheet to the income statement you will either incur a loss, such as what the industry would have done, or the commodity prices realized should have been adequate to cover all of the costs of production, returning the invested capital in the form of cash, which industry hasn’t done and have therefore had the investor's cover the annual cash shortfalls incurred from production.

Firstly, without fully recognizing the costs of exploration and production, the oil and gas production appears to be highly profitable. Which attracts more investment leading to more capital costs which increases the productive capacity of the industry which “appears” to also increase its profitability. In reality none of the investment dollars are being returned to the business when these capital costs are not recognized in a timely manner. Therefore the investors and bankers have to make up for the annual cash shortfall of the producers created when the commodity prices are unable to cover the entire costs of the business. The business is still incurring these costs, however the accounting is reporting that these costs are ballooning assets that hold some mythical value for the producer. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Do this for four decades and the hollowing out of all measures of value of the industry will be complete. Producers have been reporting profits when in reality, if all of the costs were considered, oil and gas has been a lost cause, supported by investors, for decades. The residual infrastructure does not have the capital or financial base or the performance capabilities, because the overproduction as a result of the chronic overinvestment has systemically collapsed the commodity prices. Then, add shale!

Certainly my thesis of the willful destruction of the industry, as noted last Thursday, is one possibility. It is very easy to run an industry when it generates no value. Producers would assert that prices being what they are is the cause of the difficulties in oil and gas. That the “market” is responsible for those prices being the other part of their argument. The Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model contains the price maker strategy that enables the producers to “make” the prices necessary to earn profits in the industry. And it would also be my assertion that the producer's role in society expands beyond just what the oil and natural gas prices provide. That they may have a role beyond partying when prices are high. Again, our relationship hasn’t been harmonious or lucrative for me but at least I can say I make an honest living.

In addition to the financial wreckage that is occurring the people in the industry have been destroyed and displaced as well. This will hold long term consequences for the industry in whatever form it takes in the future. People who have been educated in a discipline, who have dedicated themselves for decades to a producer and an industry shouldn’t find themselves out in the unemployment lines with unskilled labor. It is however the easy way to run an industry, once again.

Industry could have built the Preliminary Specification but passed on that opportunity, now the consequences of their inaction are being realized and the situation is their responsibility. The Preliminary Specification has been available in the market for a long enough period for it to have been adopted. That hasn’t happened because it is contrary to the best interests of those in the industry. It is counter to the vested interests. On a go forward basis they will need to rebuild the value that has been destroyed within the industry. If all of the North American infrastructure can’t stand on its own without significant capital investment each and every year, that hemorrhaging will need to be stopped first.

If it is believed that those who destroyed the industry. That passed on our solution to resolve the issues that were leading to that destruction. Will be the ones that come up with the means in which to right the wrongs, rebuild the value that has been systemically drained for four decades, and realize all the value we have identified that is available to the startup oil and gas producer in the next 25 years. Then pigs really do fly.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Third Friday Off

No posting today.

Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part XVIII

I thought for sure the producers had these commodity prices under control. Yet they seem to be in steep decline again. And those losses, as bad as last year, if not worse and it was supposed to be a good quarter! With rising prices and an Opec agreement to make operations run smooth! Only neither of those seems to be coming about. What’s a producer to do? Soon the talk in the industry will shift to the next talking point. This is a critical time because the focus will be on the producers to account for their poor performance from now until the American Thanksgiving. That’s November 24th, one of the longer stretches of time in which they may be asked to be accountable for their actions. Who, or what, will form the basis of the “talking point” that gives them the excuse for these poor performances and lack of action. What hymn will they all turn too to make it sound “real” to those that have lost everything as a result of having faith in our oil and gas producers.

And so it will go. It may seem that we’re doing the same thing over and over again at People, Ideas & Objects. But I think the insanity is with the producers continuing on with the losses and destruction of people's money, time and energy. It's the same thing over and over, nothing ever changes. Chronic overproduction in natural gas has caused the storage to fill to capacity and the prices are in freefall. I, like the producers, don’t understand why Opec can’t get an agreement in natural gas as well. It’s always someone else’s fault. Chronic overproduction and massive losses. And it just never stops. It went on for about fifteen years in the 1980’s and 1990’s but the natural gas prices were able to carry the producers then. Eventually the oil prices moved up and the producers were able to party like there was no tomorrow. Only today is tomorrow and no one has taken care of the business of the business. And refuses to do so.

The problem is systemic. It’s identified and documented in the Preliminary Specification. It’s also resolved there and the solution provided through the services of People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers. The problem starts with the accounting magic of the SEC which was mandated in 1978, or there abouts. Enabling the producer to capitalize almost everything they did. And then slowly deplete those capital costs over the known petroleum reserve base. Therefore the producer, in effect, never recognizes the real costs of exploration and production. These costs are stored on the balance sheet for decades while the producer reports “profits” as a result of realizing the very few costs that are left after capitalizing most of the costs, in a capital intensive industry. This overreporting of profitability has led to overinvestment which has led to overproduction which has led to price declines. Shale makes this feature a permanent bug for the oil and gas industry. Producers will now always overproduce, and they will now always lose everything they have. Just look at their quarterlies.

The issue we face now is that for the past four decades of reporting on the basis of the SEC anything and everything of value has been incinerated in the industry. When you report profits that are not supported by an accurate accounting of the business you create distortions. The distortion that was created in oil and gas was the shortfall in cash. This cash shortfall was made readily available through the generous donations of banks and investors who thought they were investing. Only in reality they were just lining up behind the other investors that went into the abyss before them. As long as there were new investors and bankers, the profits would drive the new investment. Now, after investing all of those trillions, we pull back the curtain and find the hollowed out carcass of the oil and gas industry. An infrastructure built on investor money that generates no monetary value whatsoever and requires a fresh load of new, naive and flush investors each and every year. But in reality, they say, it’s the Saudi’s fault.

Everyone associated with the oil and gas industry, in any capacity, are having such a pleasant time that they look forward to the collective “talking point” in order to adopt the appropriate posture. It’s not a business, business people fix things. The Preliminary Specification has existed in a vacuum since December 2013. There was ten years of research before that. What I am saying today is not newsworthy it’s more of an annoyance and frustration to those that find this environment comfortable. I think it has something to do with their pensions, their retirement and their expertise in avoidance of hard work. They’re more than prepared to ride the destruction phase of the creative destruction that oil and gas needs to go through. What more proof would there be, or do you need? What we need to do is to get on with the creative phase and that starts here and now with the best business opportunity, ever.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part XVII

Taken from the perspective of the next 25 years. Starting over with a startup organization, a clean slate, to pursue the oil and gas industry doesn’t seem unreasonable and is actually the preferred choice. Where will the existing producers be in 25 years? That question requires too much speculation and I’m too biased to provide anything objective. What we do know is there currently exists significant upside to those producer firms that have a current start date. They will be able to purchase the existing producing infrastructure of the North American industry at affordable prices. Maybe not today, but soon. When the only opportunity for survival of an existing producer is to sell properties, the market will be saturated with properties for sale and the prices will be affordable. There is also the additional upside that is provided by using the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model. With its price maker strategy the incremental value that will be earned is $25.7 to $45.7 trillion over the next 25 years. And lastly the opportunity to make North America energy independent in both oil and gas provides substantial upside on its own.


There is no way that we’re getting to that upside from here with the organizations that we have in place. They’ve proven themselves incapable of action. If we don’t do anything we’ll be sitting with the same issues and questions that we have today. Oil and gas will muddle along on investors money and continue to experience huge booms against the backdrop of protracted busts. Doing nothing is something that oil and gas has excelled at. The Preliminary Specification eliminates the muddle along strategy and replaces it with a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer. The two contrasting visions could not be more different.


Information Technology has been the variable that has determined the outcome of many industries in the past number of decades. Whether it’s computers, cellular phones or music to name just a few. Information Technology was used to leverage change within the industry and remake who and where the industry operated. I have stated repeatedly that it's not necessarily the important thing to own the oil and gas asset. The important aspect of the oil and gas industry will be to have access to the software that makes the oil and gas asset profitable. Without access you will have what we have today, which from my point of view is a mess. People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification defines and supports a revised producer and industry structure that enables the producer to earn the profits that they are unable to earn in the current industry. That is the difference between the old industries and the new industries. The new industries understand that software drives the business. The old businesses believe that buggy whips are good investments. If I can’t motivate you with the opportunity that sits in front of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable, startup oil and gas producer for the next 25 years. Then you should get out of the business.


Maybe all this technology is just a fad and the boom will return soon. If you're in an oil and gas company fighting to keep the doors open, you may not be far from this belief. These opportunities will pass you by when the technological fad’s become the ways and means of the industry and you were too busy stuck trying to restructure a buggy whip manufacturer. We all have choices. And that is what makes living in North America so dynamic. The old stale ways never survive. They’re always swept away by the better way. We’ve always embraced creative destruction. Sometimes it's just difficult to see it when it's here.


The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part XVI

There seems to be a disconnect between the third quarter financial statements and the tone on the street. We came out of the second quarter reporting period with this giddiness that the low point in the industry had been reached. Then with higher prices being realized in both commodities during the third quarter, further fueling the confidence of the producers. And with the announcement of a potential Opec production agreement, there was the declaration that the war against Opec had been won by the shale producers. This has set these producers up for a serious hit if Opec declares that no agreement can be made.

Producers are missing their Wall Street targets. Missing them by significant, serious amounts. If this trend continues heads will roll. Reading these financial statements reflects the scope of the devastation that has taken place. It appears to me that the producers would need almost three times as much revenue just to be considered solvent. They are absolutely gutted, capital destroying machines. Money goes in, mixes with other money, and it all gets lost. Sinking ships unwilling to admit the end is here.

What it’ll take to turn these around is beyond me. What is there? A recapitalization? There isn’t that much money, anywhere. No investor or banker is going to absolve these firms of their bad past behavior. Especially when nothing has been done to correct the issues in the industry. Pretending that all is well doesn’t sell well when the financial statements are this devastating. The only thing that I can see is an attempted rehabilitation over the long term. Funded by the sale of properties to pay off debts. As the assets are sold the debts are paid and when nothing is left the doors are closed. That may be an optimistic scenario.

We should look at these producers from the perspective of a rational accounting methodology. To adjust for that, take the net asset balance of property, plant and equipment and write it off. This leaves the producer with the massive losses that the firm has really incurred during its lifetime. The debts that it has incurred in creating those losses, and reflects that those assets, in reality are nothing but an albatross on the back of the producer. The cumulative producing assets of the industry earn nothing in terms of financial return. Therefore they are worthless. The producer would perform better financially if they didn’t have any properties. That is the best way in which to evaluate any producer today.

Producers have over the course of the past forty years “believed” in the accounting magic of the SEC that enabled them to capitalize everything to the balance sheet. They then have left those assets on the balance sheet for as long as there are reserves on that property. For accounting purposes, which is to evaluate the performance of the management, would you allow the management to capitalize a concrete building for the period of time the building would be standing, or approximately 100 years? No rational management would do so. Yet we have the equivalent accounting treatment in oil and gas for the past forty years. Creating the belief that the more that the producer spent, the more valuable they became and the more profitable they were. Creating a culture of spendaholics with no concept of value or consideration of the overinvestment they were causing in the commodity markets. The only time producers were subject to a write down of their assets was during the ceiling test. Taking all of the reserves at today’s prices, or the total gross future revenues of the producer, and ensuring that the net asset value wasn’t higher! Ludicrous. Investors and bankers used to participate in these spending binges by funding them. They’ve finally caught on to the game. Now the curtain has been pulled back to reveal the extent of the real damage and the producers think it’s time to carry on!

So what to do. It’s time to start over with a startup oil and gas producer. One that doesn't’ currently carry the albatross of yesterday’s property values and performance. The amount that you spent to build your house has no impact on the value of your house. The amount that a producer may have spent on a property has no impact on the value of that property. Today’s oil and gas property values are history. If the market needs more time to realize this then the startup can wait. The existing producers aren’t going anywhere but down. Leaving the best business opportunity, ever for those startups that can participate. And don’t forget that People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers also provide the opportunity of a lifetime.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.