Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part XV
I can scream until I’m blue in the face. It won’t matter and it won’t make a difference in the market. I’m here to provide an alternative to those that know that the industry is unable to continue in the way that it’s currently operating and structured. Convincing the world that this is the case can be highlighted here, but we have to wait for what Winston Churchill calls the “jarring gong” to occur. That being the time when people realize the situation is untenable. I think that’ll happen soon. When I can point out that the value of starting over with new startup oil and gas producers, which can acquire the existing producing infrastructure at fire sale prices from the current producers. Which will earn the $25.7 to $45.7 trillion value proposition by using People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification over the next 25 years. Will also earn the further upside from the industry achieving energy independence in North America. All of this value is waiting to be earned by those that can see this opportunity. As a result I think the “jarring gong” will be heard soon. And as I’ve said before, maybe during this quarterly report season!
Today producers are fueled with optimism regarding a deal with Opec that may be put together by late November. I don’t see it. There is no interest in them putting together an agreement that I can see. Other than to fail at doing so and deflate the optimism that is rampant through the North American industry. This has been the game that's been played for the past number of years. It’s maybe difficult to see it this way when you're so vested in higher prices. Or maybe it’s just that I’m so vested in hearing the “jarring gong.” If the third quarter reports show that no progress has been made by the producers. And the Opec agreement falls apart. I think then this buoyant, optimistic oil and gas market will quickly disappear.
We’ve also come along way in terms of the natural gas market. Prices in the mid $1 to $2 range have been replaced by the low $3. About half of what is needed to be profitable. It was a warm summer and it looks likely to be a cold winter here in Canada. The shale gas production volumes have also come down significantly from their peak of 44 bcf / day and are now in the range of 42 bcf / day. One thing I learned from my years in oil and gas is to never listen to a non-engineer talk about the natural decline curve. So I won’t, there is still ample capacity in Canada and the United States. Storage is almost at capacity. If it takes eight years to destroy the natural gas business to achieve these results the producers should be happy that they’ve arrived, somewhat. Shale gas still exists however, and we’ll find that the producers unconstrained drilling response would overwhelm the market very quickly.
So the score card will show who’s making money and who’s losing money. I expect the tragedy to continue unabated. And these losses will be calculated based on the foolish accounting that has deceived everyone for over forty years. If you used a proper assessment, it would be far worse. The industry has a lot to earn to make up for these past losses. They’ll have to provide a real return on the investments they took, but then lost, but will need to have earned back. When that's done, in the far off future, maybe then they’ll be able to look at some of this upside. Or alternatively we could all just start over now with new organizations and a new way of operating oil and gas based on the Preliminary Specification and earn the value that awaits us.
The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.