Best Business Opportunity, Ever, Part X
When you begin your startup what will be your area of operations? What will be your expertise and capabilities? These will form the foundations of your competitive advantages for the lifetime of the firm. The existing producers have opened the proverbial WalMart of properties on offer. You can have whatever you want, and for some of the best prices ever seen in the industry. Just remember to time your closing to the seller's debt payment schedule. That way you’ll force the issue and secure the property.
Recall that Chesapeake “sold” their Barnett shale assets for the right to get out from under a $300 million annual cash drain. Consider that the economics of a startup are different than the existing producer. If a startup were to have purchased these Barnett shale assets they could have instructed Chesapeake to shut them in prior to close. The startup would then be incurring a “null operation.” No profit, but also no loss. There are other considerations to consider, such as technical capabilities, but the startup can build those subsequently over time. The point is there are two extreme economic dynamics in play between the existing and startup producers. These economic dynamics can be leveraged by the startups.
As a new oil and gas producer you have much to offer an investor, banker or bondholder. Zero dilution of their investment from a history of bad management and total destruction. The history in the industry is that producers never wanted to account for the capital they used in the business. So they didn’t. As a result their asset values ballooned, or is that a bubble? And their earnings soared. Making it appear like a profitable industry. This has been the case for almost forty years and is the culture of the industry not to consider capital costs in assessing performance. They believe capital costs are “sunk costs” and are therefore irrelevant. The fact that operating a business on this basis creates significant shortfalls in real earnings and cash generation didn't matter. The implications of doing that were offset by the annual share issues that every producer seemed to participate in. Trillions of dollars have been invested in the North American oil and gas infrastructure and it can’t generate $0.02 in earnings. Those being the real type of earnings that the startups will be able to earn, not the fake type of earnings that producers have been claiming for the past forty years.
The investors will have to deal with their past investments in their own time and place. What we can do is provide them with the necessary changes in the industry that will ensure that their future investments are managed appropriately and establishing the value that is available today. That being securing the producing infrastructure of the industry, the value proposition of People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification and the ability to increase the throughput of the industry and achieve energy independence in North America. The point is we are not going to be getting anywhere with the producers that we have today. They are waiting for the mythical market to rebalance. What we need to do is to turn all of the industries production profitable at all times. Then expand the capabilities and throughput of the producers within the industry. And then look to secure the energy independence that shale provides. Without establishing profitability first, none of the rest is ever going to happen. Ever.
And when we talk about profitability we mean that all production that is produced is always profitable. Not just some of the time. Oil and gas commodities are price makers. These commodities react quickly and substantially to shortages and surpluses. What we need these startups to do is to do the rational thing of determining if a property is profitable, based on a detailed accurate accounting, it produces. If it is unprofitable then it will need to be shut-in which will incur what we call a “null” operation. No profit, but also no loss. Under the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model all of the producers costs are variable. No production = no revenue, no royalties, no operating costs, no overhead, a null operation.
Existing producers seem to think that losing money on all of their production 75% of the time is acceptable. This is the culture of the industry. If you think you can change the culture of the industry, don’t count me in. Creative destruction is the tool that we are using to make this change. The existing producers have exercised the destruction part of the equation to a level that I didn’t expect was possible. They really made a mess of the place. Which makes our job easier and more exciting, so what are you doing?
The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.