The Big Picture
Rumor was that the recent decline in oil prices to $39 was due to record volumes of short positions. Opec was unhappy with the movement of the price as a result of these short positions and therefore made the announcement they were getting together to discuss production freezes. The price then leaped back to $48 burning the shorts. Or did they? The price has been in freefall since it reached those highs and is now in the $43 range. This isn’t normal. I don’t think this most recent downfall is attributable to the short positions or a loss of faith in Opec. I think it’s the same thing that we saw in the natural gas marketplace a few years ago. The loss of faith in the producer's ability to deal with problem at hand. A loss of faith in the concept of “market rebalancing.” When this happened in natural gas we saw it breakdown from its traditional 6/1, then 10/1 pricing structure. It’s now trading at 16/1 over oil which is up from the 20/1 last year.
Nothing has happened in terms of making any changes to address the overproduction or oversupply in natural gas since 2010. Shale gas reservoirs currently provide centuries of natural gas for the North American continent. Producers are scrambling to turn all of those reserves on to the market as quickly as they can in order to raise the only form of cash that they can. This is the state of the industry. Oil is maybe four years behind the characteristics that we saw in natural gas. This is due to the fact that oil was not originally produced from shale, only natural gas. If it is as I suspect that the oil market is capitulating in terms of the price, we could be seeing the beginning of a fundamental breakdown in the price of oil. Then, as I have stated here many times before, that that will be the last source of funding drying up for the producers.
When the oil prices fundamentally break down, will that constitute a crisis in the industry that’ll motivate the producers to develop the Preliminary Specification? No investors will put money into the industry due to the state of the finances of the industry. They are abysmal, primarily due to the four decade long deception of bloated balance sheets being carried out at investor's expense. This charade being clearly evident on top of all the other difficulties. Bankers are now taking any money that hits the bank accounts. It's probably a good idea not to call them. Asset sales are about as impossible as can be, especially when companies such as Chesapeake are dumping their prime jewels for $0.00 consideration. Just to get away from the cash drain. Everyone is running around trying to produce as much oil and gas as they can because they need the cash. And the leadership in the industry predict “market rebalancing” some time in the next 2 - 3 years. Exactly as they predicted it four years ago.
The industry is financially destroyed. The commodity markets are destroyed. Gas fundamentally broke down, and oil is about to fundamentally breakdown. The world is awash in shale based reservoirs and the producers haven’t a clue what to do about them. The old business model, based on oil and gas scarcity, is redundant and has led to this crisis. We need to shift to a new business model that deals with the abundance of shale based reservoirs. Where producers are able to allocate production fairly and equitably across the industry based on profitability. If the well can be produced profitably when all costs are considered, then it produces. Otherwise it will remain shut-in. Current producers can’t do this because they don’t know which properties are profitable and which ones aren’t. If they do shut-in any production their losses increase because their accounting and administrative costs are fixed.
With the Preliminary Specification we use the decentralized production model which enables the price maker strategy to be implemented across the industry. By reorganizing the producers and industry we are able to identify each individual property's actual costs. Determine which properties are profitable so that the producers can shut-in the unprofitable properties. Saving those reserves for a time when they can be produced profitably. Increasing their overall corporate profits by not diluting their profitable operations with unprofitable properties. Allowing the commodity markets to find their marginal costs and reducing the costs of their reserves by the losses that they would otherwise incur in the current system.
So let's move. Let’s get People, Ideas & Objects funded and on its way to delivering the software the industry needs. It’s early September, what better time to start! I don’t see anything positive coming from the current situation.
The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.