A Frustrated Diatribe

All the latent value that had been built up in the oil and gas industry over the past decades has now been thrown at the oversupply and overproduction issues. “Hope” appears to be the current solution to the issues throughout the industry. This is also the situation we find ourselves in as People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification is considered to be collusion in the marketplace. And to avoid any appearance of collusion the producers will ensure that they run the industry into the ground. It speaks poorly of the producers that they haven’t the business understanding to see their way through our price maker strategy. Price maker is a technical term in economics. It refers to the characteristics of certain products price behavior in the marketplace. Oil and gas commodities are price makers. Therefore having a strategy that uses that knowledge would be valid for an oil and gas producer. That is what the Preliminary Specification does. It enables the producer to make their own individual, independent decisions at each property based on an actual, detailed accounting of the properties profitability. If it is profitable it produces. If it isn’t, the property is shut-in. In a world where shale exists that is the only way in which we’re going to get out of this difficulty. In order to implement this solution requires the Preliminary Specification.

If we are to believe that anything is going to get us out of this mess. That solution is going to have to be a fully researched and a solid, thought out framework. The business model of the Preliminary Specification achieves that. It is the result of ten years of research based on using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer. It is ready to go and ready to solve the issues of the day. To come up with an alternative that resolves the issues in today’s marketplace would take at least as long and the producers do not have that time. If it is, as I suspect, that the rumors and opinions of those in the industry that the Preliminary Specification is collusion. This conclusion is based on a lack of knowledge. Producers don’t have the time or the means to be delayed in the pursuit of their financial health. False conclusions only delay the adoption of the only solution that is available to the producers. And it doesn’t involve collusion.

The amount of value that is being destroyed on a daily basis makes this catastrophe the most serious issue the oil and gas industry has ever faced. There is no residual value left in the North American producers at this time. It has been consumed by the inane accounting methodology of the SEC that creates this situation. Shale exacerbates the issue into an unresolvable one that can’t be “muddled through.” To assume the Preliminary Specification is collusion, which can only be done through rumor and innuendo, is to short circuit the only solution to the greatest issue the industry has ever faced. People need to wake up and at least read the Preamble.

Shale will always overwhelm the marketplace until the producers obtain production discipline through the use of the price maker strategy of the Preliminary Specification. It is as simple as that. Proof of that is the six years the natural gas marketplace has been depressed by shale gas volumes. It is these shale gas volumes that have also had an impact on the global price of natural gas. Until oil and gas producers move away from the high throughput production model that seeks full production to cover the high cost overhead of their operation. And move to the decentralized production model of the Preliminary Specification where costs more accurately match revenues. Then the industry will remain in the state that it’s in.

My frustration level is through the roof on this. This conclusion that we are colluding means more delays in terms of our project moving forward and the industry can’t afford that time delay. All because someone said something or other about collusion. Where are the rational cool thinkers in the industry who have the decision making power to proceed? Are there any, and if so, what are they doing? It’s time to act, it should be a foregone conclusion that at some point in the near future industry must move towards the Preliminary Specification. What is the alternative?

My reading of the financial statements for the second quarter is that there is a dire situation in the industry. One that if it is unaddressed in the current quarter, significant destruction of the industries capabilities and our capacities will occur in the immediate short term. I believe that the only way in which we can avoid this further destruction is for the industry to receive the capital that is necessary to proceed in its normal course. To do that requires that industry has a plan. A plan to adopt energy independence on the continent. To do so would require the current production base to become profitable and then secondly address the resource constraints in the mid to long term supply of engineers and geologists. Then by having those two elements in place the industry could increase its throughput and move on to profitable energy independence. Seeing this plan the investors and bankers would support the industry and enable it to achieve its goals. That plan is the Preliminary Specification. Otherwise, I think we face a dark future.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Making Oil and Gas Business Decisions

Being on the wrong side of a cash draining organization, I know a few things about them. I guess the one thing that most people understand is the characteristic that momentum seems to build against you and the pit only gets deeper. The cash drain in oil and gas is epic at this time. All of the value that had been built up over the past few decades has been thrown at the problem in order to try to rectify it. Nothing worked. Now the cash drain has nothing left to consume, we have hit the proverbial brick wall in oil and gas. This will get interesting.

But it doesn’t have to. There is a plan that the industry can undertake to pursue profitable energy independence on the continent. All they have to do is subscribe to the Preliminary Specification and we’re on that path. Investors and bankers might want to be involved in that restructuring of the industry and help those producers in achieving their goals. After all that is their role in life. Sitting as the industry is now with the belief that all is well is not fooling anyone with more than a few dollars in life savings. It is clear in reading the second quarter reports that any money provided to these producer organizations will be incinerated in these black holes. It truly is devastating to read them.

I stopped cold calling CEO’s and CFO’s last week as no one was returning my calls. Not that I expected them to but I had to do something. Other than through this blog and our wiki, our message is not being distributed to those decision makers, as far as I know. I “believe” and I “feel” like something is going on. Something that is completely unknown to me. Maybe it's just the belief that these organizations do not have any viable plan to exist much longer. I think that It might also be the rumour that the Preliminary Specification involves collusion has caused this pause in interest.

The road to bankruptcy is not going to provide any producer with any value. In bankruptcy the producers will not be any better off. The judge may approve loans to the producer on favourable terms which is what they do. However, that is when the individual bankruptee needs to be rehabilitated as a result of poor performance through the poor actions of the people involved. As we noted the other day, this is an industry wide problem where the collective effects of other producers impact the bankrupt producer. Loaning more money to an individual bankrupt producer doesn’t mitigate the issues. Banks see that, and their staying away now, just because a judge has granted favourable terms doesn’t mean anything to the banker.

Therefore the unsolvable problem will continue for as long as the producers insist on not accepting the Preliminary Specification as the solution. Persistence is a beneficial characteristic in business. And these producers may be insisting that the Preliminary Specifications price maker strategy is collusion. As I indicate in the Preamble, it’s not collusion. When independent, individual decisions are made to produce or shut-in an individual property. And those decisions are based on a detailed, actual accounting of the property. That is what is called a “business decision.” Something that the producers are missing out on in the industry today. Collusion is when people work within markets themselves to affect prices. The fact that many in the industry think our price maker strategy is collusion shows you the level of discussion of business in the industry today and why we are in the state that we are in.

Continuing on to the third quarter without addressing this financial catastrophe. With natural gas storage potentially being filled just as they were reporting their third quarter results. With oil prices well below what is necessary to cover the cash costs to produce, that scenario is not an option. This would not be the responsible choice for managements to make. That is my opinion. And it can be taken with everyone else’s opinion these days. It seems everyone has an opinion on everything today. The fact is the Preliminary Specification is derived from ten years of research, not opinions. To glance over it on the basis of someone’s rumoured opinion that it is collusion is what passes for comprehensive debate in oil and gas. Instead of facing the music in the third quarter, those that should know should pass on the rumours and cheap opinions and instead read the results of the research. That’s how business decisions can be made.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Right Solution, Right Time, Right Size

There are only a few producers left to publish their second quarter reports. It’s fair to generalize at this time and to state that this is a disaster, no question about it. Reading some of the text of these reports you would think that all is well and it’s business as usual. However, I read in their financial statements that they don’t reflect a viable going concern. Something desperately needs to be done in order to recapitalize and rehabilitate these firms. No one is going to do that without having some understanding of what changes are going to be made to ensure that “this” doesn’t continue. Saying all is well when the industry is in this condition only scares people even more. If you truly don’t see the depth of the difficulties that we are in then we will have more than just the oil and gas industry spiral downwards.

World Oil reports that the debt of the majors has doubled since late 2014. They report that it is at $138 billion, up from $13 billion in 2008 when oil prices were $150. Proof that the energy consumer is being subsidized by investors and bankers. When you’ve been reporting profits from 2008 to 2016 why would your debt balloon ten fold? The simple answer is the accounting that the SEC dictates for oil and gas is inappropriate and it leads to these kinds of distortions. First, this accounting makes it appear that everyone and anyone is profitable. Leading to an overinvestment in the industry. Overinvestment leads to overproduction. This overproduction has collapsed the prices of the commodities. And it was the investors and bankers who until recently supported the producers cash demands, in effect subsidizing the consumers for their energy consumption. The ten fold increase in the Majors debt over the past 8 years is proof of this. They should have received additional revenues of over $138 billion during that time to offset the cash shortfall that they did realize from the low commodity prices. Thier accounting only reflects this after the fact, across the industry in the form of low cash balances in the juniors and intermediates, and high debt levels in the Majors, after investors and bankers refuse any further involvement.

“That giant sucking sound” to quote H. Ross Perot is the investor's cash being vacuumed by this crappy accounting methodology. What we are finally seeing after decades of this is that no one was really earning any money. After all that time we finally have exhausted all of the value that was built up in the industry. And now it stands with nothing. No cash. No working capital. No line of credit. No credit facilities. No willing investors. No profitable operations. No operations that don’t require cash. The entire infrastructure of the North American oil and gas industry is worth $0.02 because it will only drag anyone down with it. And some producers say its sunshine and rainbows? A critical review of the situation is what is needed and urgently.

Many of the producers that I saw were the walking dead. Many. Operations are consuming cash in almost every instance. How is it that producers are claiming they are profitable at $48 or at anything? Only Shell and Exxon reported profits and other than the majors no producer was generating cash from operations. Does anyone see how difficult a situation this is? You have no cash. And producing consumes cash. But if you stop producing the cash consumption will rise significantly leading to a worse situation. So you produce more, leading to further commodity price declines. Many producers had run out of cash and were using the service industry to fund them through accounts payable. Others too were using their working interest partners share to fund them.

Here’s the plan. For the third quarter reports the producers say they have a plan to deal with the situation. The plan is the Preliminary Specification which deals specifically with these problems that are plaguing the producers today. It's not only the right solution at the right time, it is the appropriately sized solution for the scope of the problem. When I published the budget two and half years ago I took a lot of flack for such a “ridiculously high priced software development.” Odd but it seems to be the right sized solution to the problem at hand doesn’t it. By having this plan in hand the producers are able to state that they are a viable going concern, with a real profitable future. One which sees the North American continent become profitably energy independent. Something that investors can get behind and help to build. All the produces have to do is to subscribe to the Preliminary Specification and just send cash.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Leaders Wanted

We begin another week with anticipation that “something” regarding the commencement of our development may be happening in the industry. That producers “may” be doing something about the issues that plague them. Whether there is or not is completely unknown to us at this time. However, this initiative is best served by moving forward as if there was. Our plan involves producers moving towards the objective of profitable energy independence on the continent through development of the Preliminary Specification. We need to move this industry onto a stronger financial footing where it can be the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable industry it needs to be for a prosperous society. We have a natural opening, in terms of time, to begin developments in September. I hope that it’s 2016.

In anticipation of that I am reiterating that we are currently looking for a CFO for People, Ideas & Objects. I’m not going to define the job in this post as most of those that would be interested can determine what the job would entail. The budgeted costs are significant for a startup and we need to start from scratch. That tells you what you need to know. If you’re interested in this position please call me or email at the information below. We will also be looking for our COO who will be heading up the software development of the Preliminary Specification. As with the CFO I’m not going to go into details and you should contact me if you have an interest. Both of these positions will be located in Houston.

We have a long list of positions that we need to fill in the user community organization. From the board of directors, the C suite and our product owners, we are looking for almost 30 people to head up that organization. The product owners are unique in the development of our software. There will be one product owner each for approximately 20 different elements of the software. One for each of the modules of the Preliminary Specification, the user interface, data etc. The product owners are responsible for their product and represent the users to the People, Ideas & Objects developers. Our users will certainly be interacting with our developers, what the product owners will be doing is prioritizing and focusing the developers on the appropriate areas of concern. Ensuring that the overall product is complete and correct. They are leading the users in terms of the development of their area.

These positions make up the leadership team for the development of this software. We are looking to fill all of them as soon as possible. These positions are open to those that have an interest in the development that we are doing and are appropriately qualified. Development of the user community is ongoing and we are looking to secure the numbers that we want to ensure that the applications that we deliver have the product quality that are necessary. This user community has been determined to be 3,000 part time user community participants representing all of the different elements of the oil and gas, and service industries. Once we have these numbers organized we will then be able to commence the software developments of the Preliminary Specification.

In the meantime, anticipating that we are moving forward, we will introduce ourselves to Oracle. Making them aware of the issues and opportunities in the oil and gas industry. Oracle makes up one third of the costs of our budget and we expect that, based on the design of the Preliminary Specification, using their technologies will provide us with a unique competitive advantage, quality in our product offering, mitigate the technical risks associated with the industry's movement to this initiative and overall success. I’m sure they’ll be happy to see us.

I do want to restate something that is in the back of my mind. I hope that people are reading and understanding the entire Preliminary Specification. Understanding your domain is important. It’s familiar and I can understand why someone would focus on that. However an oil and gas producer is an integrated organization with many different parts. Each having a dynamic effect on all the others. Particularly when we use the Joint Operating Committee which is the legal, financial, operational decision making, cultural, communication, innovation and strategic framework of the industry. Knowing only one part of the whole may lead to problems and impact the quality of our product offering if we don’t understand the reasons that others may want or need to have something done differently than what we expect. Understanding others perspective can be helpful, and this can be mitigated by the users ensuring they have a substantially rounded and comprehensive understanding of the Preliminary Specification.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

What Motivates You?

September would be a good time to start development of some software don’t you think? I certainly do. It would provide us with a point in time where everyone’s focus is on getting back to work and getting things done. Summer’s over, the kids are in school and it's a good time to take on those big projects. We certainly qualify there. People, Ideas & Objects are ready to go. That is to say we’ve been ready for a while. Just need the commitment of industry and their cash and we’re off. Implementing our plans for the development of our software will be done as quickly as we can harness the minds of our user community. We’ve been at this user community development for two and half years now and have achieved significant progress based on the facts that we are user community based software development and the structure of our user community.

I’ve been cold calling the CFO’s and CEO’s of the producers to let them know about our plan for profitable energy independence. The lines seem to be dead. I have also reached out to my press contacts and the Internet must be down as well. I’ve never experienced a shutout such as this. Nothing. Zip. I would usually consider, based on these cold calls, that nothing would be done in the month of September. However, my feeling is that something is going on. Producers can’t continue on in the manner that they have. Both commodity markets are destroyed. The capital markets are destroyed. They can’t raise any substantial amount of money to operate their firms. And their firms are hemorrhaging cash at record speed. Time is of the essence. They have no choice, in my opinion, then to act.

The status quo is no longer a viable option. To come up with an idea on how to solve this problem at this time is impossible. Trust me on that, it doesn’t take a lot of money, but it takes a lot of time. Decades. Therefore some new idea is not an option. And the alternative that I’m offering is that the industry could be developing software based on the Preliminary Specification next month. All they need to do is to commit to us and send cash.

Doing so would open a world of opportunities for the producers. Investors and bankers, seeing a viable going concern in the long run, with a plan for significant upside in terms of profitable energy independence on the continent. Would be interested in a profitable producer that’s in that situation. All the producer would have to do would be to commit to us and send cash. Of course they know that we would keep them from sliding back from their commitments and regressing to their old ways. We need them as much as they need us. That probably goes without saying, but I said it anyways.

I’ve been at this for a long time. The number of people that have read the Preliminary Specification are unknown to me at this time. I’m assuming some people must have dozed off along the way. Most people focus on the module that they’re most acquainted with. I think you need to read the entire Preliminary Specification. The number of people who have read this blog over the past ten years, with its monomaniacal discussion of the development of ERP systems for oil and gas producers based on the Joint Operating Committee, is significant. It’s not that I’m invisible. I know the effects of my efforts in terms of promotion in the pre-Internet days when I worked with Oracle and Price Waterhouse. Pushing paper out is wholly inefficient when you compare it to the power of the internet to spread your ideas.

I think potential user community participants should be spit polishing their applications for submission to People, Ideas & Objects. Now you can probably imagine the number of people who said I was crazy over these past few decades. So you need to judge for yourself in terms of our projects viability. But without people telling you you’re crazy, what motivation is there?

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

This is About Leadership

Winston Churchill once said that you can always count on the Americans to do the right thing. After they’ve tried everything else.

There doesn’t seem to be much discussion coming from the producers regarding plans for the future. It is more of the same with some details of how the producer will survive the next few years. Selling properties seems to be the chosen method of raising cash. It may be the only way to raise any cash in this environment. With most of the proceeds dedicated to paying off the debt that will be coming due in the short term. A reasonable plan until one asks where the money for these asset purchases are going to come from? The old economic principle of supply and demand may create some disparity between prices of the buyer and the seller. This being what is classically called a buyer's market.

The other day I asked why is selling People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification so difficult. After years of hearing about “market rebalancing” you would have thought resolution of the issue would have been achieved by now. How many trillions of dollars have been wasted by hoping that it’ll work soon. The capital structure of the industry is now destroyed in addition to both commodity markets. Investors and bankers looking at the industry are never going to invest in this place the way it is today. The people who work in oil and gas and the service industry, and those that have been forced out, are questioning their choice of industry to work for. If the industry thought it had resource constraints before, the future looks dismal. Is muddling through really the best way to run the operation?

What we will learn in this next quarter is the myth that is the “strong” and “protected” balance sheets. The ones that were so prized and cherished are really useless and redundant. What good were they then, and what good are they now? Bloated balance sheets are great when you want to take on loads of money from investors and bankers. That would be their primary purpose. The problem with them today is that they account for the legacy costs of spending that occurred over the past decades and now represent the people who want to see something for the money they put into the firm. How does that relate to “strong” and “protectable.”

This isn’t a crisis this is wholesale destruction of the business and the industry. Hoping for change is what politicians sell. Plans are what businesses need to deal with the issues of the day and provide guidance for the future. What is the plan of the producers and the industry today? I don’t see anything because there is nothing. I have the plan that is needed for the industry in the Preliminary Specification. It deals specifically with the overproduction and oversupply issues, and resource constraints in the earth science and engineering disciplines. Setting out the objective of energy independence on the continent. Producers who subscribe to our software development by paying 10% of their subscription fees by August 31, 2016 can state that they have a plan, the Preliminary Specification, to deal with these industry wide problems in their third quarter reports. I’m sure investors and bankers can get behind that.

I started these software developments in 1991. It was different back then, very different. I started in 1992 with a comprehensive joint development agreement with Oracle Corporation. We were to bring a solution to the market that addressed the needs of the oil and gas producers. For a variety of reasons that did not happen. We shifted our developments to Price Waterhouse's PW/SQL product offering in June of 1997. And in October of 1997 we were the odd man out in the Price Waterhouse, Coopers and Lybrand merger. Nonetheless I began these developments early this century and published the proposal for the Preliminary Research Report in August 2003. In May 2004 the Preliminary Research Report, with the conclusion that the Joint Operating Committee was the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer was published. I then undertook ten years of research to determine what the producer and industry would need to operate when using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct. There is a significant amount of history in my attempts to bring this solution to this market. At no time have I ever received any support from industry.

If you think as a producer that the Preliminary Specification isn’t for you then fine. Start with your own idea and plan and we’ll see you in 25 years. The reality is that you can execute within your organization at 100% and still fail due to the collective actions of other producers. This failed business model of muddling along has to be trashed before the industry is trashed.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

"This" Will Never End

A short history lesson will have us recall oil prices hitting $26 and the producers banking on “market rebalancing” to clear the situation. Their claim was that the cause of low commodity prices was self correcting and these low prices would quickly lead to higher prices. Then the surge in oil pricing allowed producers to claim that they were profitable at even $30 oil, but when it hit $52, there was no talking to them, all was well. People, Ideas & Objects suggested otherwise and stated that the prices would resume their downward trend in a short period of time. That no producer was profitable at $48. That the cash situation in the industry, with very low and sometimes negative gross margins on production, and the past debt and equity commitments totalling over $200 / barrel. The producers were in a state of denial to state that they were profitable and were in fact in a very desperate cash situation. Now with the second quarter reports we find that the cash situation in the industry is even worse than I thought it would be. Profitability doesn’t exist anywhere except in Exxon and Shell. And there isn’t a hint that “market rebalancing” will take effect soon as oil prices spiral down to $39.

What we have is a business model that is used in the industry that is flawed and broken. Just as in the late 1980’s and 1990’s production by the producers will continue no matter what the situation happens to be. This overproduction and oversupply, as a result of this broken business model, will never end. That was proven in the 1980’s and 1990’s with the depth and length of that downswing in oil prices. Commonly known as the muddling along strategy this business model is the standard operating procedure for all producers. When we add the age of abundance in terms of oil and gas from the shale reservoirs. We have the total destruction of the industry. This issue is resolved in the Preliminary Specification and is available to the industry.

Why do I have such difficulty making the sale with respect to this software development project? It just boggles my mind that I have such heated conversations about such obtuse things. I am not the one that caused this situation. I am the one with the solution, and we have a value proposition in the trillions of dollars. If we continue on in the fashion that we are at this time the investors and bankers will never come back and the industry will fall backwards in terms of its capabilities for decades. We are very close to this happening now. It won’t take too much more destruction to start harming the capabilities that we have come to rely on in the industry. If you haven’t grasped the seriousness of the situation yet. Then there is no use talking to you.

One source of cash that producers have leaned on heavily in these second quarter reports is the expectation that the service industry will fund any field activity. That, to me, in the situation that the oil and gas industry is in, is a despicable act. Another form of cash that is becoming evident in these second quarter reports is the ballooning volume of accounts receivable. Partners are not paying their working interest statements in a timely manner. How many times have we seen a producer start to do this for one or two months before they close the doors. Withholding the net proceeds of the property to the rightful owners of the property, or not paying their working interest distributions are also despicable acts.

But what should we expect. Cash is everything. If you analyze any of the cash generated from operations you will find that the producers did not generate any real cash from the operation itself. Operations, royalties and overheads took all of the money. That doesn’t include the costs of capital, that’s just some of the money that went out the door. Every producer that I have seen have drawn vast amounts of cash from their cash balances, bank lines of credit, or if they have any, asset sales or investors. The consumption of cash is epic. The healthy firms appear to have about a year left of this crisis in terms of cash. Many are at the end of their rope.

Has anyone else noted that the deliverability of oil and gas is down. Yet in both cases of oil and gas the inventories are up and at record levels. This issue of overproduction and oversupply is not going to be remedied in the near term if this is the sixth year in natural gas and the third year for oil. It will take a generation before the overproduction and oversupply is resolved by the existing producers. This is the information which has the investors chompin at the bit! Bankers are swarming the producers with offers on the basis of this knowledge!

We don’t have the time or resources to survive a generation! People, Ideas & Objects have a plan for the industry for the next 25 years that sees the investors and bankers potentially restarting their participation with the producers tomorrow. They will do this if they see a viable plan to achieve energy independence in Canada and the U.S. in oil and gas. First we have to make the existing production profitable. We then have to deal with the long term shortfall of earth science and engineering people. And then we can profitably increase the deliverability on the continent to achieve energy independence. That plan is the Preliminary Specification. Take a week or so to read it. It sure is better than reading these second quarter reports.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

The Integrated's Too

The difficulties being experienced in oil and gas are affecting even the large integrated producers. This is a bit of a surprise to most, including me, these firms have their downstream operations to balance out any difficulties that they may experience in the upstream end of the business. The scope of the cash crisis in the upstream end of the oil and gas sector is now dragging down these large integrated operations as well. BP and Chevron even reported multi billion dollar losses for the quarter. It was very interesting to hear what the CEO’s had to say about these reports. Most specifically Shell’s CEO Ben van Beurden stated he “wants to turn Shell into the best oil company for investor returns.” To me that sounds remarkably like our claim that we provide the oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Which is what our Preliminary Specification does. But it also implies that he understands the impact of our claim in his organization.

Shell, BP, Chevron and Exxon have unquestionably the best assets in the oil and gas business. For that their is no doubt. They also have the best people. They have the scope and scale of operation that provide them with the secure base in which they can invest in their human resources for the long term. Few organizations can approach the situation that way. They also have access to the best forms of financing in the world. Whether that is debt or equity, they have the credit rating and depth of shareholder pool to do what it is they need to do for the next 30 years without much concern for financing. Few companies have achieved this level of success. Yet with all of this they are unable to earn a profit in BP and Chevron’s case and Shell and Exxon’s instances were some of the worst in their history. How could this be? Have they not executed their business plans and strategies effectively?

Simply you could have done all that you could have done in the best organizations in the industry and still been unable to make a go of it in oil and gas. In many ways Shell, BP, Chevron and Exxon have done nothing wrong and everything right. And that could be stated for every other producer in the business. It is the collective work of all of the producers in the industry that is working against each individual producer that is causing the problems. Overproduction as a result of the producers assumption that oil and gas is a scarce resource. Is the predominant thinking that was was necessary in the 20th century. In the 21st century there are new rules that need to be understood. One is that the age of resource abundance is upon us. And it's not enough to own the oil and gas asset, it's also necessary to have access to the software that makes the oil and gas asset profitable.

The understanding that I think Shell’s CEO has of our claim of being the most profitable means of oil and gas operations is that his assets are the best, his people are the best, and his access to capital is the best and therefore he is going to be able to provide investors with a better return than anyone else. And that is the right interpretation of our claim of the most profitability. Just because we provide the most profitable means of oil and gas operations does not guarantee that every producer is going to profitable. They may have profitable production, however it maybe just profitable in comparison to what Shell or some upstart may be able to provide. They may be a poor competitor in terms of the earth science and engineering capabilities or their land and asset base. Their competitive cost structures may be so costly and unproductive it takes their profitable production outside of a profitable commercial enterprise. The point is that profitability is a relative thing. And there will be producers who will not make it in the industry even with the Preliminary Specification operational. However, what we will know when the Preliminary Specification is operational is that all of the industries production was produced profitably and any properties that did not meet their marginal costs were shut-in as a result. Keeping the industry's profits as high as could be by not diluting them with any unprofitable properties producing. That those unprofitable properties shut-in reserves are being saved for a time when they can be produced profitably. And the commodity marketplace is priced at the marginal cost and the investors, producers and consumers are receiving a fair and equitable price in terms of energy.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Civic Holiday

.No posting today

Culture Trumps Strategy

We will never attain energy independence until all production is profitable. Profits must drive the investment that brings about the increase in the continents deliverability. Investors and bankers don’t have enough cash to achieve that goal of energy independence with today's producers. They have run out of money and patience and are on the sidelines. They see the culture of the industry has been to use other people’s money to subsidize the consumers of oil and gas and they are tired of being the other people. A healthy industry, generating real profits will provide a good return for its investors. It will enable the industry to pay back its bankers. And it will generate the funds necessary to expand the industry based on the opportunities that are put before it. That is how healthy industries operate. The way that the oil and gas industry has been managed for these past four decades has not been healthy. It has been unable to do any of these things. And now finds itself with a culture of managing the business with no respect for the business elements.

Put that down as another bold statement stated here for the first time. Add it to my long list of such statements. The war between accountants and engineers has been a classic battle raging on in oil and gas for these past four decades. Engineers, and to a lesser extent geologists, run the show. Those that are good at what they do rise to the top as they should. The business of the oil and gas business is an applied science and there can only be a scientist running the show. I’ve been in the business for 39 years and I can guarantee you that I would run an oil and gas producer into the ground in very short order. I don’t understand engineering. I’d like to understand engineering. It’s a discipline like no other, you either understand it or you don’t.

Which makes the engineer omnipotent in oil and gas. When an accountant raises a point about the inappropriate methods of capitalization policies in the industry. And the engineer knows that the SEC dictates the use of the ones the accountant is criticizing, the accountant only loses more credibility in the eyes of the engineer. Over four decades accountants have lost a lot of credibility in the eyes of the engineers in oil and gas. Mark this up as another disaster brought to us by the inappropriate policies of the SEC.

Profitability can only be achieved when the costs of production are recognized in a timely and appropriate manner. By deferring the costs of capital to the balance sheet for the life of the firm, which is what the SEC model does, you never recognize the real cost of production. Therefore your profits are overstated. In a capital intensive industry they are severely overstated. Making things in the industry appear much healthier than they are. The proof that this was happening was the evidence that the industry never generated any cash. The only cash that the industry ever had was the new money that came in from the investors and the bankers. The culture was that you would always have another share issuance each and every year. You had to in order to keep the doors open. Now the money doesn’t come in and the game is exposed for what it is and the credibility of the industry is shot.

The only way that I can see us moving forward is to adopt the plan that is inherent in the Preliminary Specification. Turn the industry into a profit generator. Real profits, not the funny accounting profits of the SEC. Fix the long term supply issues of the resource base of geologists and engineers and then use that enhanced capability to approach energy independence. In that way we can get out of this situation quickly and effectively. Move to a new basis of operation in the industry. And build for tomorrow.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.