How'd This Happen

As I write this it’s unknown what the outcome of the meeting of Opec members is. The outcome is irrelevant to People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers. We will continue to harp away at the issues that we see in the industry until the Preliminary Specification is adopted. I would also suggest that the outcome of the meeting is irrelevant to the North American oil and gas producer. If Opec should decide to reduce production and prices doubled, we would only be back at this same situation as today in as little as two years. The systemic overproduction of oil and gas in North America has not been resolved. It hasn’t even been discussed or raised as a concern in the industry. It is a non-issue as far as the bureaucrats are concerned. All of this is Opec’s fault.

To the issue of the day and how we ended up in this situation where oil and gas production is so far in excess of what the market can handle. Even in natural gas, which I guess would be Opec’s fault as well. I see two components driving the overproduction, the accounting policies of the SEC, and the muddle along strategy of the industry. These two conspire to ensure that systemic overproduction in the industry is obtained at shareholder and investor expense. And that nothing will be done about it, other than sitting around and waiting for the “market to rebalance.” We saw this in the late 1980’s and the 1990’s in oil. When overproduction caused the prices to be depressed and incapable of providing returns to the shareholders. I thought at that time if we could fix this method of operations in oil and gas, we could have a healthy industry in both oil and gas at all times. That is the Preliminary Specification and what I did not know until well into this century is that the bureaucracy are incapable of action and generally protective of their turf. That only bureaucrats make money in a downturn which is the only concern in the industry.

How do accounting policies of the SEC cause systemic overproduction? By capitalizing everything that is ever spent by the oil and gas producer on to the balance sheet under property, plant and equipment. The balance sheets of these producers bloat year after year as a result of their enhanced spending binges of investor cash. Making them appear to the untrained eye to be well capitalized and healthy. Whereas to the critical eye they are nothing but testimony to the bureaucratic spend fest, and if these statements were fairly stated would reflect highly leveraged organizations. Conversely, realizing only small portions of the property, plant and equipment costs each year as depletion on the income statement has the effect of overstating the earnings of the producer. After two years in the industry you wouldn’t know if the financial statements you're holding are from the company run by the greatest oil man of all time or the village idiot. These overstated earnings make it appear that oil and gas in North America is a good business to put investor money. Therefore it flows into the hands of those that have achieved ever greater status at spending velocity. This money goes to find more oil and gas, and as a result, all of the oil and gas production is immediately put on the market. Eventually overproduction occurs as it did in the 1980’s and 1990’s, and today. Only today we have the high cost shale formations that flood the market with the commodity much faster and makes the industry overproduction more obvious.

Producers have been raised to believe that the annual capital issuance is a given in the business. They don’t understand that if they let the property, plant and equipment costs flow to the depletion account on the income statement they would have a clearer accounting of the situation. They would also be earning less. Or I would suggest they would begin to report the correct amount of earnings. As more and more of the assets flowed to the income statement the cash that was tied up in the investment of the property, plant and equipment would be released back into the organization. Enabling the producer to self finance its exploration and development. As a result there should be no need for annual stock offerings to meet the capital budget each year. Having the capital budget financed through the organization. By not doing this in the past, the oil and gas producers have trapped all the value of the shareholders investments in the properties they own. And are therefore subsidizing the consumers of energy by not generating adequate revenues to offset all of the actual costs and earn appropriate profits. Or in other words oil and gas prices need to be higher in order for the North American producers to be classified as a viable business. This is the way things have been managed  since 1978 and what seems like the way the business is done is culturally ingrained. It is fundamentally wrong and leads to periods of time such as we have today.

The second attribute being the muddling along strategy of the producers. Which is really a capitulation of any active involvement or analysis of the business. It is what it is. And shoot the guy who says anything different such as the treatment that I’ve received.

It should be noted that the discussion last month of a supply freeze from Opec had a remarkable effect on the prices of the commodity. It’s almost like it was exhibiting a price maker characteristic. If only someone would have thought of that and developed a means in which the oil and gas producers could use a price maker strategy in North America. Until then we’ll have to live with the price maker strategy of the decentralized production model of the Preliminary Specification. I do find it comical the number of people who were declaring that the overproduction issues in oil and gas were over. Just like that, without any fundamental change to any fact, they were able to deem that the entire industry was going to be sunshine and rainbows starting this week.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

You Reap What You Sow

This Sunday is the day that all the Opec countries have agreed to meet to discuss production freezes. I don’t expect too much to come from the meeting but we may be surprised. With the state of financial affairs in the North American producers, taking the pressure off of the high cost producers would be bad timing for Opec at this point. After all, the countries that are meeting are still making money. It's the shale producers who are not, and that was the point of Opec’s strategy, to cause North American producers pain and have them adopt the swing producer role in the global markets for oil. The difficulty is that you can’t tell the North American producer this. You have to force them out of business first. Then when they put themselves back together, maybe they’ll adopt the Preliminary Specification and the swing producer role.

The price of oil certainly has behaved as if something good was going to come out of the meeting. And maybe it knows something that we don’t. If it does the bureaucrats have won a reprieve and will be able to keep their lofty positions in the industry for a while longer. If there is no agreement then the price of oil is going to drop precipitously next week and the failure of the bureaucrats will be fully exposed. Is this the best they have? Hoping that the markets are turning upward on the basis of chatter out of Opec? I think the people who had the faith that these bureaucrats had good governance of their investments will begin to think twice about this.

Now I have called this point in time on several occasions. And since I’m writing about the possibility again it would seem that I was wrong before and may be again. I think that my timing has been off but my message is accurate. I do find the timing of this meeting to be rather opportune in terms of leveraging the bad news to the investors of the North American oil and gas producer. It is as little as a week or two away from the earnings release of the first quarter financial reports of 2016. Followed quickly by the annual shareholders meeting. Now I don’t expect anything to come about as a result of these meetings. We have gone through several years of poor performance and nothing has happened so far. Why would it happen this year. This is however the one time of the year where the bureaucrats do have to be accountable to their shareholders and face them directly.

Those bureaucrats that do survive the annual meeting will be treated with the nine months or so of bliss that they’ve always enjoyed in this industry. It's the rest of the year in which they can do as they please, and that’s why they’re probably still around. It’s not that they do anything during these nine months, it’s actually that they do nothing, and as a result nothing changes. We could see some more layoffs and certainly a lot more losses but those are other people’s problems right now. There is the east wing of the cabin to concern the bureaucrats with now.

The banks have all but shut down the last financial spigot into the industry. The cash necessary to produce no longer exists and therefore a heavier reliance on the service industry to extend terms on their services will be demanded. Extending credit on receivables over several years is very common in most industries, the bureaucrats will state. Anything to make payroll. We saw a number of equity and bond issues in the beginning of 2016. Oddly enough, none since. Maybe the investors don’t see the benefit of investing in oil and gas anymore. Left to their own devices the bureaucrats will need to get the cabin ship shape in record time. With all the labor that has been laid off in oil and gas, finding good qualified labor to build that east wing of the cabin should be no difficulty.

Everything for them is looking like a pleasant summer after all. Just need to get past the pesky shareholders in a couple of weeks and we’re home free. All the bureaucrat has to do is stay at the cabin for the entire summer and wait until their paychecks bounce and then submit their resignations. Pensions will kick in and that will be that. A job well done.

It was Opec that was the one that was going to be hurting as a result of Saudi Arabia servicing their clientele as their priority. Leaving the swing producer role to others. They and the other Opec countries are not draining cash to produce. Their countries may have costs that are causing them to draw down their reserves, but if you want to include the U.S. debt and deficit in what the producers need to cover as their costs then we’ll need a bigger boat. Optimism in the face of such a looming disaster is comical to me. What the oil and gas industry needs is a plan to deal with its overproduction for the long term. The Preliminary Specification does that and needs to be adopted. It should also be understood that we have years of work ahead of us! I can’t just flip a switch. As I said many times I have received no support whatsoever from the oil and gas producers. And we have 5,000 man years of work to do.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Just the Facts Ma'am

No one wants to get into a knock down, drag out battle. Well I do, and I will be taking it to the bureaucrats. Those in the oil and gas industry that know that something is wrong don’t necessarily want to get involved in a fight. Which is fine, they can enjoy the show and be entertained by the events and actions that take place here at People, Ideas & Objects. We aim to please. I certainly don’t expect anyone to pick any side in this argument. There is no need for that. I only ask that people look at the facts of what we’re fighting over. The Preliminary Specification, and whether it should be the manner in which to operate the industry. Something interesting happened at the beginning of the year. Our logs show that people have shifted from looking at the Preamble, Abstract and Executive Summary to digging in deep to the Preliminary Specifications individual modules. Good news for us.

I’ve had the benefit of seeing what people think of my writing. When the people in oil and gas are confronted with mandatory participation in a consultants meeting that suggests putting a doodad on your desk to indicate your busy, as innovative. They know that high priced consultancy is earning its big dollars and will be back next year with something just as innovative. And then I come along and ask people to read 175,000 words, or two textbooks worth of text, about my ideas. There is a stark response by the people who have put that effort in. In most cases it's printed, indexed, highlighted, penciled over, dog eared and completely worn out. It has been this way since my first publication in 1996. People are starving for something that solves their problems. And when they see it, they want it. We’re not many in terms of numbers yet, but we will be, and when we are, we’ll be rabid. For that I can guarantee.

The other interesting aspect of my writing. Is that we are establishing a sub-industry between oil and gas and the Information Technology industry. If you take that same Preliminary Specification to the people in Information Technology and ask them to read it. They would read it, glaze over and shrug. They have no understanding whatsoever of anything within my writing that is of value. It’s kindling for them. And that is why we need to sit between the oil and gas, and technology industries. To communicate and provide an understanding between the two. Because the two don’t understand each other right now and a lot of time, money and effort is being wasted on both sides by hard working people.

There has been a divide between the IT people and the rest of the world since its inception. I’m not of the opinion that this can continue in the manner that we have for the past number of decades. Something has to change. And that change is the development of the sub-industry that is People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers. We are the hybrid of the two industries and the means in which the two communicate and achieve their goals and objectives. People who are selected within our communities are those that have their experience in the oil and gas industry. That is our primary concern in terms of understanding. We need to know the oil and gas industry and know it well. I have also set out that our people within the user community be educated in the Information Technologies to a certain level. These are specified in the user community vision.

Everyone can use an iPad, a smartphone and a computer today. We need people who can look into the source code of People, Ideas & Objects and feel comfortable there. If that’s not you today, then you need to get there through the courses that are recommended in the user community vision. I can assure you that you will never have the access necessary to change the source code. You will however need to understand what is happening in that code and understand the fundamental concepts underlying those technologies. This is important to the quality of our product. That the implications of the technology be understood when we are finding that things are not as they maybe should be.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

That Was Quick!

My outreach to the powers that be landed with a thump yesterday. There will be no acceptance of the olive branch that I extended on Monday. I thought with the state of affairs in the industry it might be time to get to work. It’s not. I guess when you beak off about the bureaucracies lack of action, to put it as mildly as I can, for many years, you become known for that. The word hostile comes to mind. I seem to have bent some noses out of shape, and not just a few. If you were responsible for running the industry into the ground would you be happy to be called out on it? The thing is I’m only too happy to be the one to have taken this fight to the bureaucrats and held them accountable for their lack of action. We have a significant issue in the industry. It needs to be fixed. If we don’t fix it, it will lead to serious consequences. If some people find me offensive, well actually a lot of people apparently, that means I’m doing my job. This fight isn’t over, and maybe it's just beginning.

The situation is that “market rebalancing” will work and the industry will get back to its normal course, the bureaucrats want us to believe. That is the mood throughout the industry and the investment community. They are bending over backwards at this time to give the bureaucrats every opportunity to remedy the situation. At the same time the bureaucrats are showing that the cupboard is bare in terms of resolving anything. No ideas, plans or actions. This is setting the stage for a fundamental betrayal that the investment community will realize when the bureaucrats “market rebalancing” can’t, won’t and will not ever work. April 17, 2016 is Sunday, that’s when everyone meets to discuss production freezes. There’ll be no action as a result of that meeting and oil prices will decline on Monday. Does anyone think the Saudi’s are going to blink now that they have all the pressure on North American producers?

What I have done is got ahead of myself in thinking that the story about “market rebalancing” had run its course and that the investor's patience had run out. Therefore we’ll have to wait for these events to occur. Being persona non grata in the industry is liberating. I know any attempts at further outreach would be futile and to be honest it contradicts my nature. I much prefer the fight I think we are about to enter. This is going to be a classic and I suggest popcorn and refreshments. The bureaucrats think the situation that we are in will resolve itself as it has so many times before. If they muddle through they’ll get to the good times. I see this as the end of the manner in which the structured hierarchy is capable of generating value in today’s economy. Disintermediation is transforming the organizational structures of all industries around the Internet. Maybe the oil and gas industry is immune, no one knows.

Cash is going to be the determining factor. When Uber replaces taxi’s in the cities it operates in it's not because the taxi’s were broke and not a viable going concern. They had their taxi commissions ensuring that everything was tilted their way to ensure a prosperous industry. What Uber provides is a better system to get from point a to b. Oil and gas producers are not in the situation where they’re viable. As much as their bloated balance sheets might tell them so. Cash is so tight, and this will be so evident in the first quarter reports of 2016 that producers will be unable to continue for long in the current fashion. Overproduction is killing the commodity prices and they can’t stop producing because if they did, the cost to carry their overhead would put them under right away. That’s why in the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model we convert the producers fixed costs to variable, based on production. Then if they shut-in production due to non-profitability their costs on that property go to zero. All of their costs.

Like any junkie, more is all the bureaucrat wants and shale delivers the hit. Flush production from shale field operations will continue to keep the continents deliverability high as a result. The overproduction is systemic in the oil and gas industry as a result of the “capitalization of all of the costs” theory of accounting of the SEC. Adding shale to the overproduction issue only increases the difficulties in the industry. We’ll have a financial catastrophe on our hands in as little as six months. Then, as is happening now in the service industry, our capabilities to function at the level that we are will begin to diminish permanently. The point is we have to get to that level before they’ll accept their medicine and implement the Preliminary Specification. Until that time I’ll remain persona non grata and do what I can here. There’s a problem out there, somebody needs to point it out. I’m just too happy to be the one.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Pooling Technical Resources in the Joint Operating Committee

Continuing with the presentation of our side in this battle of ideas. We have discussed the level of capital expenditures in the oil and gas industry that are necessary for the next 25 years. The amount of work that needs to be done is believed to be the greatest volume that the industry has ever faced. I have read that the amount of that investments total is $20 to $40 trillion. These values have formed part of our value proposition as they have to be part of the returns that investors expect to see in the future. Arguing that in today’s oil and gas industry these would otherwise remain on the bloated balance sheets for decades on end, never being returned to the investors. Nonetheless, whatever the amount of effort that will be undertaken it’s going to be significant. Therefore the scientific basis of the industry will be relied on heavily to ensure that consumers demands are met.

Innovation will therefore need to be a foundation of the industry, if the consumer is to be satisfied. The Preliminary Specification is designed around innovation and is a critical element of the software that we are building. In the Preliminary Research Report we asked if the scope and understanding of the process of innovation can be reduced to a quantifiable and replicable process? The answer was yes it can. Innovation is very much an engineering process. Then during our ten years of research we determined what is necessary within the industry and the producer in order to facilitate that innovation. Innovation must have the appropriate structures to enable it. These elements have been included in the Preliminary Specification.

As we look forward to the next 25 years it is clear that the industry will need to increase its throughput in order to deal with the demands for its products. Looking at the manner in which producers are organized today and expecting them to do more on the basis of the same structure would be foolhardy. The need to reorganize them in order to achieve further specialization and division of labor would be necessary to expand that throughput. And to deal with the issues of the retirement of the earth science and engineering brain trust that is advancing in age. At the same time the demands of the sciences scope and scale will increase the footprint of a producer's need to achieve what is known as “operator” status. Putting that ideal of “operator” in jeopardy as a commercial operation. Therefore the need to collaborate with the partners in the Joint Operating Committee to pool their disparate resources in the sciences and engineering capabilities to achieve the needs of the property is necessary. A system such as that would have to be purpose built, and is included in the Preliminary Specification.

The producer therefore becomes an entity with two distinctive sources of revenue. Oil and gas production will be the primary revenue source. And the secondary being the use of their enhanced and highly specialized capabilities that are provided not only to the Joint Operating Committees they have an interest in, but also to producers they have otherwise no other relationship with. Providing their capabilities to other producers who are seeking to attain the full scope of what is required to ensure what is necessary to conduct safe and successful operations. The Preliminary Specification includes these in the Research & Capabilities and Knowledge & Learning modules. The billing and capture of these costs and revenues between these parties to ensure that the focus remains on each producer's own unique competitive advantages and their innovative development are handled in the Partnership Accounting module. The producers competitive advantages being the unique and specialized earth science and engineering capabilities they have. And their land and asset base.

This is only some of the innovative aspects included in the Preliminary Specification. We’ll discuss more of them as we proceed through the battle of ideas. Without the software that defines and enables the capabilities discussed here they won’t happen. Especially when the coordination across the industry is necessary. Spontaneous order, an economic phenomenon which we had come to rely on to deal with the development of our organizations and industries has been short circuited by the nature of software. In today’s society without the capabilities of People, Ideas & Objects software development, user community and service providers the industry will remain as it is today until we deliberately set about to change it by adopting the Preliminary Specification and maintaining the software development capabilities for the long term.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

An Olive Branch

One of the most effective tools that the bureaucrats have used against People, Ideas & Objects is their lack of support. It's difficult, if not impossible to move an initiative forward without the support of the targeted market actively supporting it. As a result we have been rendered to the limited resources of myself. Progress may have seemed slow, however we were able to publish the Preliminary Specification in December 2013. Since then we have had a good battle with the bureaucrats. And now the oil and gas marketplace has deteriorated due to overproduction to the point where it is now the material issue facing every individual and every producer in the industry. Nothing is going to happen in oil and gas until this is resolved. As we’ve watched the oil price deteriorate this last week, acknowledgment that something needs to be done is beginning to form in people’s minds. That there is no plan to deal with this issue and “market rebalancing” is not working. We are at the beginning of the loss of faith in the people who manage the industry.

One thing I learned about myself in the 1980’s and 1990’s is that I am a fighter. That I like to fight, mostly about the issues, and I’m pretty good at it. Taking this initiative from the idea of using the Joint Operating Committee in August 2003 to today has required a good fight. The fight however has just begun. And just as much as the day I started I can’t wait to start building this system. We have catered our appeal to the members of the investment community and the people in the industry who have been adversely affected by the overproduction. I want to add to that group the bureaucrats we have challenged over the past number of years. They’re going to need a fighter in their corner in order to make this transition happen, and they’ll need the Preliminary Specification.

Supporting People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification will create an alternate method of operating the industry. One that renders the current one obsolete. We have room for the people who are the movers and shakers in the industry. Those in the administrative, accounting and operational areas. We have no openings whatsoever for bureaucrats in terms of the type of work that is done today. Based on what the current projections of the number of producers headed to bankruptcy court, there may be limited opportunities where they are now. From my point of view, People, Ideas & Objects “possible” is better than the current “nothing” in my books. And that is what is being offered today.

We have 5,000 man years of work ahead of us. Everyone in the industry is going to have to be focused on this initiative to make it successful. Even those bureaucrats who may be precluded from the situation in the future. Everyone will have a role to fulfill and a job to do. This is not going to be easy. But nothing worthwhile is.

To say that this has been a difficult battle would underestimate the time and effort that went into it. Which leads me to the question why have I spent the past 25 years doing this. In terms of cost there is nothing more that could be assessed that hasn’t been put in. Every day I wake up with this idea in my mind and every night it’s still there. Developing the Preliminary Specification was ten years of research. Taking the Joint Operating Committee and determining a business model that was viable for the producer and the industry. Detailing the system requirements for a system that meets the producer, Joint Operating Committee and industries needs. And that today is the Preliminary Specification. It seems simple now, however, it was very long hard work.

I take it on faith that there is a plan for all of us. I’m just doing my part, and in reality I enjoyed the intensity and reality of the journey that this initiative delivered. There needs to be a community spirit and a larger group of people involved now in order to make it real. The only way that is going to happen is with the cash resources of the producers. The bureaucrats have traditionally stood in our way. I’m extending an olive branch to them here today to try and take this to the next level.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Third Friday Off

Our Paradox

The only resources that hold us back from ensuring that the Preliminary Specification is implemented, and the industry can deal with its issues and opportunities for the next 25 years is that critical resource we all know as cash. Our Revenue Model sees the production profile of the North American oil and gas producers paying a proportionate share of our budget based on each of their production profiles. It is producers that are the beneficiaries of the value proposition of People, Ideas & Objects. Therefore who else would be motivated to pay our costs. We believed for three years that the investors in these producers would act to stop the destruction in the industry. I now know why the bureaucrats treat their investors so poorly. The bureaucrats have done everything that they could in order to avoid dealing with People, Ideas & Objects and the Preliminary Specification. It was Winston Churchill who once said “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing, after they’ve tried everything else.”

The bureaucrats have tried everything else. The price of oil and natural gas will never be commercial for the foreseeable future under their current administration. It’s a painful and eventual walk for each and every producer to bankruptcy court. The banks and bondholders will end up holding the industry's interest and they know nothing of the business from an operational point of view. Where we’re at doesn’t end well for anyone in the industry under any scenario that the current administration have offered over the past number of years. The method that the industry is organized needs to change to ensure that it is viable and is able to meet the needs of the energy consumer, its investors and the people who work in the industry for the next generation.

The only alternative being proposed is the Preliminary Specification. To come up with an alternative might take as long as ten years to determine. And it won’t be coming out of any committee that the bureaucrats might strike to study its options. That is a non starter and there is no time for those luxuries at this point. For lack of a better term, we are stuck with the Preliminary Specification. We’ve muddled along long enough to know the current bureaucracy is not working. Therefore our paradox is that we will actually raise the cash that we need from the people who we have been at war with this past decade. Will they see things our way now that all other methods are hopeless? We shall see.

We have had our budget known in the marketplace for a little over two years. It is controversial for a variety of reasons, the first being sticker shock. Did we believe that this problem could be solved with a handful of people and a few dollars? The important point is to ensure that we keep their eyes focused on what is possible when we have the system operational in the industry. And don’t ask me when that’ll be until you’ve given me the full budget. There are too many contingencies, if’s, and’s and but’s to sort out as it is. Not having the budget in hand when we sit down to deliver that bad news, and yes it won’t be tomorrow, isn’t going to work.

The other aspect of our budget is that we are expecting people to commit their careers to the new way of doing business in the oil and gas industry. How are we going to make sure that the users, developers and service providers are “all in.” By having the producers show that they are as committed to having this succeed by ensuring the financial resources are put into place, first. Until that happens we won’t be able to control our destiny and we won’t be able to secure the people that we want and need.

If the industry wants to participate in a positive outcome for the industry. I don’t see any other choice being available today, and I don’t see anything becoming available for at least a decade. It truly is do or die for the oil and gas industry as we know it. And therefore for our way of life. If the producers want to enter this by hedging and short sheeting the bed than they are sure to fail in some manner. If they feel they need to succeed as I do then they have to go “all in” as well and make sure this initiative is a success and that their contribution will be whatever is asked of them.

It would be my current suspicion, and for this I am going on instinct. That if People, Ideas & Objects did secure their budget that the Saudi’s would change their production profile to one which would enhance the markets prices. Just a guess. Giving them some additional revenue during the time that this software development initiative was being developed. The issue I have with this, and another reason we need the entire budget up front, is the barely 5 second attention span of the producers today. It is a manic response between elation and depression on the basis of whether the oil price is up or down at any time of the day. If the Saudi’s did act as I suspect they might, keeping the producers attention would be difficult.

These are the terms that I enter into in raising the funds necessary for this initiative. We are accepting money now and will begin our work as soon as we can with the money that does arrive. If we had the support of some producers then we could unleash the marketing resources that will raise our budget needs. As it stands we don’t have that money and are not looking for that from anyone other than through our Revenue Model. The producers participation is needed now and we will be able to complete this initiative the sooner that we’re able to start.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Time For Change

The investment community telling People, Ideas & Objects that we haven’t done enough is the same as saying “what have you got.” Which is the question that I expect to be hearing from some of the more enlightened producers who know they have to act. They’re certainly going to be as disappointed as the investment community were when they see only the Preliminary Specification. “Where’s the iPhone app that solves all their problems? You should have had this completed by now!” They will state. When just the week before they were taking the baseball bats to me out back. Let me state for the record once more. I have never received a penny of producer or oil and gas investor funds during anytime that I have been in this business. And this is not necessarily an anomaly in the software business.

The Preliminary Specification may seem a small contribution to the overall difficulties that the industry is facing. It however solves those difficulties. It is timely in that it has been available for more than three years. It takes the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer. It then determines what the producer and industry need to look like in order for this change to take place. Then sets out the definition of the systems that need to be built. It also sets in place the structure of how the “sub-industry” that People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and service providers will need to develop to meet the needs of the Preliminary Specification, the producers, oil and gas, and service industries. Being designed to solve the overproduction problem that is so prevalent today. But also to provide a framework in which the administrative, accounting and operations issues and opportunities for the next 25 years can be acted upon in a timely manner. Eliminating the culture of muddling along in the oil and gas industry.

I expect there will be what is called a capitulation in the investment marketplace regarding oil. That the bureaucrats don’t have it worked out. That the prices will not recover until something serious changes within the industry. And the rest of the world turns its back on supporting the stories, the ideas and the industry overall. Whatever is needed, they will conclude, the current bureaucracy doesn’t have it. There is no sense in pouring more and more money into a sinking ship. This happened in natural gas and you notice that no one discusses that marketplace anymore. It has been fundamentally destroyed by the bureaucrats over the past six years. No one cares what happens there, it’s irrelevant to the rest of the world. This will be the same situation that will now occur in the oil marketplace.

In the past the bureaucrats could get away with communicating this stiff arm of a strategy of “market rebalancing” to the investors and banks. They would look proactive by laying people off in the downturns because only one side of the business would traditionally be down, while the other side could continue to carry the freight. Now with both sides of the business down, and seriously due to the prolific nature of shale reservoirs, they’re stuck. It is my argument that the industry was never profitable. That is being proved more and more each day and we will come around to a clearer accounting of what has gone on. However, it has also never generated any cash. The annual cash flows of the producers always included the increases in bank debt and annual financings as part of those numbers. Take those out and the producers would be barely keeping the lights on. And that was when oil was $100 and gas was $15. Today cash is being sucked out of these producers at such a rate that no one will have anything left by the end of 2016.

So maybe I haven’t done enough, and the Preliminary Specification is all that I have. What other choice do you have? The industry is now on its own and needs to fix this itself and there is no one in the world that is going to help the bureaucrats. They can jump ship, and that’s what I expect a lot of them will do. Leaving the mess for us to clean up after them, of course, what else should we expect.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Oh My! They Don't Have it Covered

The disaster that is the oil and gas industry will not be the one that provides the stable, long term supply of oil and gas to the energy consumer. The next 25 years will be one of the more difficult times in terms of the technical challenges that the industry faces. Thankfully we have the abundance of shale to see us through, we’ll be needing it. Many have lost their jobs in the industry and in the service industry too. If you listen carefully they're not looking for work in oil and gas anymore. This may be the beginnings of a permanent decline in our overall capabilities.

As we noted yesterday the banks have cut the funding that they were providing to the industry. I’m sure those bottom feeder investors that jumped in when the oil prices leaped 50% are regretting their impatience now. That the bureaucrats didn’t have it covered after all is making even them look bad. These sources of funding will now have to come from somewhere else, or we’ll have to wait the seven or so years for the banks to have confidence to invest in the industry again. With the bureaucrats talking about the normal process of market rebalancing while their “Titanic's” are taking on water. It will be a while before anyone has confidence in what’s going on in the industry. We know now that it didn’t have to be this way, that the Preliminary Specification was available in a timely fashion. We just needed to consider the bureaucrats self interest first.

It will be these bureaucrats who are the first to the lifeboats when the water becomes obvious to everyone. Watch out for their sharp elbows. I’ve stated here many times that leaving the place in shambles is the history of the bureaucrats in other industries. The oil and gas industry is a lost cause and they know that there is nothing that can be done. They are essentially saying so by not offering any solutions. Being constructive and proceeding with the Preliminary Specification is suicide for them. They won’t do that if there is the possibility of one more day's pay. And there will be some who do stick around for lack of anything better to do. They know that the banks will need someone to run the day to day. Very strategic.

This is what happens when a business model fails. Its seeds were sown when the SEC began their full cost and successful efforts adventures in creative accounting. Blowing up the balance sheet and never recognizing the costs in a capital intensive business will inevitably lead to overproduction. That’s because it always appears that everyone is making handsome profits in that industry. The over investment leading to the inevitable overproduction. The shale reservoirs just make it obvious that no one can make money in the oil and gas business. As the weight of those that are failing eventually pull everyone else down. This industry will “muddle along” like it is for a decade or more. Although I don’t know where the cash will come from, and believe me the cash is so critical right now. Then it will eventually turn around and oil will be at $400 and gas at $45 due to the shortages. But that’s in 2026 and think about all the damage that has to happen before we get to that one golden year.

There is a different way. The Preliminary Specification. It deals specifically with the issues of today and provides for the basis of operations for the next 25 years. Where the consumers can rely on a steady and stable supply of oil and gas at reasonable prices. Investors can bank on reasonable returns on a limited risk basis. And people can pursue their careers with slightly greater job security than the starting laborer on a construction site. Running a business like a business provides such things. Today only the bureaucrats are happy. Well not completely happy, there is the never ending issues they have with me.

It's the investors, the bankers, the people who have been working in the industry and in the service industry that need to start working together to remake the new oil and gas industry. That’s how this nightmare is going to end. Creative destruction is a process that has worked to wipe away the old, tired and nonfunctioning methods and to bring in the new ones. Today however we live in a world where nothing works without the software being in existence first. We have to deliberately make that first step, plan it and execute it. That is People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.