Let's Move On, We Have a Job To Do
That is our history and what is presented as the way the business is. No one questions if it is valid in 2015. I say its BS and is unacceptable in this day and age that an industry relies on the barbaric tools of laying people off to deal with the business cycle. Particularly when the Preliminary Specification specifically deals with the issues of overproduction. What I suggest we need to do is look beyond our history and the bureaucrats status quo and see what is really happening to the industry as a result of the inactions of the powers that be. There will be bankruptcies. The people in New York who were bullish on oil and gas as little as three months ago are already licking their wounds today. Carlyle Group’s Claren Road Hedge Fund is facing significant redemptions (of up to 48% of the funds value) based on losses from investments in Greece and energy. This fund was valued at $11 billion just a few months ago and is now at $2 billion. October reviews of the producers reserves by the banks that have loaned money will be a nail biting exercise for bankers and producers alike. KKR owned Samson Resources will be filing for bankruptcy in September. Predictions of oil hitting $30 are common, as are the thinking that this will be a long term difficulty. We're not talking about natural gas prices today.
Taking these financial losses into context, the financial community has long memories. It was those that believed that the industry needed to be built out in the 1990’s that made the investments then. Thinking that their day would come when commodity prices rose in the early 2000’s soon found that the bureaucrats were in the trough feeding first, leaving the scraps to the investors. Now that prices are in a downward cycle, and shale has introduced a new dynamic, these bureaucrats couldn't care less. They have their lakefront cabins and pensions in place. What the investors have discovered about oil and gas is that there never was any room for them at the table, once they had invested their money that is. All they can do now is sit back and admire their oil and gas investments bloated balance sheets, full of assets that represent their investments which have not and may never show a hint of profit.
The point here is that the investment community will be hard pressed to invest in an industry that has been so poorly managed. Thousands of monkeys on typewriters came up with a better plan. Even though the investors had cut off most of the funding in the financial crisis, the bureaucrats found other ways to keep their money mills churning to keep themselves fat and happy. Its not just the commodity price decline that will be the issue that is played out in the industry in the next few years. It is the reputation of those that managed the industry in the past few decades. All the way back to 1986 will be in question, and the answer for the people who will be asking, will not be kind or in the favor of the bureaucrat.
The bigger issue here of course is that the oil and gas industry is the most important industry in the world. It is the energy that fuels our society and how we maintain our civility. It sustains our way of life. With a disgruntled investor group, a complacent bureaucracy that will in all likelihood just quit when they are held to account and a commodity super cycle downswing all at the same time is more than what the industry can handle. We risk the ability to maintain our capacities and capabilities to meet the needs of society and our way of life in the mid to long term as a result of being in this difficult time. We need to be smart about this and overcome our history, our behaviors and begin the development of the industry that will fuel society and our way of life for the remainder of this century. We know, and there is no doubt about this, that the bureaucrats have proven themselves incapable, incompetent and undesirous of doing so. Lets move on, we have a job to do.
The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.