The False Narrative

I made the comment the other day that there has been a false narrative about the industry and its operations. That this narrative was being discussed in the press these past six months and I have noticed and been monitoring it. It may very well have been going on for much longer. These are some of the statements that I have noticed being made that seem to me to be self-serving and colorful.

Shale costs have been coming down from innovations and improvements in drilling. 

This little nugget holds one falsehood and one truth. The truth is evident from the falsehood. Once you have expended the costs in drilling a shale well, and have paid for these expenses they are assets under the current methodology. How then would these costs come down? Unless you never recognize the asset costs in your calculations. Then the fact that it used to cost $90 to produce shale and now only costs $55 shows that they only include the costs of operations and royalties, not capital or overhead.

The innovation and dynamic nature of the industry has production being shut-in and resumed on a constant basis, based on price. 

Not quite. You need the decentralized production model in order to do that. What the producers have today is the high throughput production model which demands full production to cover the costs of overhead. Most specifically the bureaucrats paycheck. Nothing has ever been shut-in due to the price being low, anywhere. The natural gas marketplace is all the evidence that is necessary to prove this falsehood. Shale gas has gone from 10 BCF a day in 2010 to about 42 BCF per day today. Remember the high throughput production model. This is not a dynamic industry. The Preliminary Specification wants to make it a dynamic industry and the bureaucrats in their desire to make what they are doing look good next to the Preliminary Specification will say anything.

We can make money at $55.00.

In many ways this is the same argument as the first falsehood listed here. There is a culture that is so ingrained within the industry that capital assets are sunk costs and they are not considered in current calculations. And therefore they never are. You can’t play the shell game unless everyone follows the same rules. And for oil and gas the rule is, don't mention the costs of the assets. And why would you, they never show up on the income statement anyway.

We are now one or two quarters away from the longest decline in oil prices ever. 

a.k.a. hold on a little longer, all will be well soon. Those that don't follow history are bound to repeat it. This is inconsistent with the history that I personally recall the industry having to experience. It’s also inconsistent with the time that the industry has experienced in terms of natural gas pricing. It’s been five years since the big declines started and they don't seem to want to stop. If you want to know what the future of the oil price is, look at natural gas prices. The fact that the bureaucrats are over producing and using the industry for their own personal gain is a common theme that I have been suggesting here.

Crickets

Those being the solutions, and the discussions of any difficulties or problems that the industry is currently faced with. Nothing, not a word. I can't remember the last time things were so peachy. I think the bureaucrats should give themselves a mid year bonus for managing the industry so well.

Big Data

I’m on record as stating that anyone that tries to sell you a big data solution should have you sprinting in the opposite direction. They are selling you technology you don't need and have no idea what your business involves. If big data is the solution to the shale problem, which I have heard specifically, that only means they will have a real solution in a few decades.

Buy Oil Stocks

All the pain has been experienced in the oils so far. You need to buy these companies while they're still cheap. I don’t give stock advice, but this seems to be irrational.

Lift the export ban

This is what Harold Hamm Chairman and CEO of Continental Resources said in the Wall Street Journal.

If America’s interest is stability of supply, peace and prosperity, then our current policy doesn’t work. There isn't a more urgent issue affecting the future of our nation and the world than lifting the ban on U.S. oil exports.

Lifting the export ban may help in bringing the differential to Brent Crude prices down. However, refiners are free to export refined products. Trading refined products exports for crude exports seems like a bad business idea to me. Refiners generate value do they not? And it's just one big market is it not? If the crude is exported it still counts in the same 93 million barrels of oil produced every day.

The only discussion and solutions to the overproduction and unprofitability of the producers is what you'll read here in this blog. People need to focus on the primary areas of this industry before it’s too late to do anything about these issues.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Choice is a Good Thing

The choice that we provide the oil and gas industry could not be greater. On the one hand you have the status quo bureaucracy who are unable and unwilling to address any of the present or future issues within the industry. They are at the same time leaving any future business opportunities to whither on the vine. An industry where the overproduction and lack of profitability will lead to both future capacity and capability issues. With the Preliminary Specification you have the opposite. A prospective method and business model of how the industry could operate in the 21st century. A system, software development capability, user community and service providers who are focused on the dynamic, innovative and profitable oil and gas producer.

I suggested in my post before taking any time off that maybe the Preliminary Specification was too radical or too extensive of surgery to undertake by the industry. When you're tired and you need a rest you might say some things that you'll later regret. The Preliminary Specification is radical and extensive surgery for the industry to undertake. And it is the right treatment to cure what ails it. Nothing less is what the patient needs in order to heal and prosper in the 21st century. Does anyone believe that the bureaucracy has the legs to carry us much further?

The differences between this choice are significant. As a result of the differences, our value proposition is in the trillions of dollars. The present value of the incremental profits over the next 25 years are calculated to be $5.7 trillion. As a result of our ability to enable the producer price making strategy and the way that assets are capitalized. Capital is included in our pricing calculations. And as a result investors will see their capital returned to them over the next 25 years. So if the amount of capital is $20 or $40 trillion that needs to be spent to meet the consumer demands. It will be $20 or $40 trillion that will be returned to the investors with their profits. This is our value proposition. Depending on the amount being spent in capital expenditures in the next 25 years. We will provide incremental value of $25.7 to $45.7 trillion to the investors in this industry.

The primary way in which we do this is through the decentralized production model. Turning the oil and gas producer into a price maker and leaving the price taker strategy behind. By stripping down the prototypical producer to the C class executives, the earth science and engineering resources, some land and legal, and support staff. The remainder of the firm's resources are reallocated to service providers who are focused on one administrative or accounting process, or subprocess and will use the entire industry as their client base. It will be the producers who focus on their competitive advantages of their earth science and engineering capabilities, and their land and asset base. The service providers will focus on their key competitive advantages of specialization, the division of labor, automation and standardization. What is critical to this redesign is that each Joint Operating Committee, not the producer, will be charged for the administrative and accounting overhead charges from the service providers.

Then when the price of the commodity dips below what is necessary for that property to report a profit. A profit based on the revenues less royalties, operating costs, overhead and an allocation of capital. Note we have converted all of these costs into variable costs. Then that property would be shut-in in order for it to report a null operation. No profit and no loss either. That is because, while the property is shut-in, the service providers will have no activity in their systems to incur any of the service provider's processes for that month and there will be no billing for any administrative or accounting overhead. It is in this way that the marketplace has the marginal barrel of oil or natural gas removed from the market, the individual properties reserves are saved for the day when commodity prices are higher and can therefore earn a profit, and the producer reports the highest profits based on the commodity prices that are available. With the marginal production being removed from the marketplace, there will be shallower and shorter declines in the commodity markets prices.

There are many other ways in which we provide value to the dynamic, innovative and profitable oil and gas producer. The bureaucracy can't and won't, do this. It is physically impossible for them to make this level and scope of change. It has to come from the outside like People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and the service providers are providing. Only in that way can these changes be implemented.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Why the Focus on Profits?

It is our focus, our claim, our desire and everything that we do at People, Ideas & Objects, the user community and service providers to provide the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Is this appropriate? Should we be focused on other goals and objectives other than that dirty word profits. It would seem inconsistent in this day and age that we should be focused on profits. The world seems otherwise occupied on other pursuits like fairness and equity, and the oil and gas industry should follow those. I disagree, focusing on profits is the appropriate and only thing that we need to be doing in oil and gas. And that is why we will continue on this path, always.

To whose benefit does the development of an industry that focuses on profits provide. Simply everyones. And by that you can include everyone. The consumer, the investor, the employee of the producer, members of the service industry, governments, society and anyone who doesn't clearly fall within any of those groups. When producers earn profits they provide for the employees of the producer and those of the service providers that they use. This gives these people jobs and resources that enable them to fulfill their lives. They also pay a lot in taxes to their local, state and federal governments. Additionally new employees are hired to provide further growth and benefits to the overall economy.

Producers can take the profits that they earn, pay taxes, pay off debts, pay dividends to their shareholders and investors, and further invest in the business. Banks are then able to loan money to other borrowers and investors can invest in other businesses. Government, state and freehold royalties are paid to those leaseholders who are entitled to those payments. Producers can also invest in more innovative and productive areas of the production process making the total cost of the exploration and production process less costly. Society benefits by having a competitive producer environment, a healthy economy, and balanced government budgets.

In contrast today, what we have is a sink hole. Where money goes in and nothing comes out. Unless you count the benefits accruing to the bureaucratic class as a benefit to anyone other than a bureaucrat. Investors have been “building the business” in oil and gas for the past number of decades waiting for the day in which “things” will turn around and be prosperous. It sure doesn’t look to me like they can expect anything positive to come from this industry in the next decade.

Employees are told to deal with the situation as it is today or lose their job. Service industry providers are told to cut their prices drastically or have no business at all. Investors are told maybe next year. Governments are told that they need to continue to support the business because it is so important to them. In essence everyone is threatened and told to do with what you have and don’t mention anything about the overproduction.

We can turn this around. Where the oil and gas producer is provided with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations by developing and implementing the Preliminary Specification, creating the user community and the service providers. That way trillions of dollars will be added to the bottom line of the producers and then achieve the type of industry that is self sustaining and provides the consumer with the reliable and affordable energy that they deserve. Let's dump these bureaucrats and replace them by funding our budget.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

An Alternative Asset Capitalization Policy

I have been critical of the method of asset capitalization used in oil and gas. Arguing that the balance sheets of the producers are bloated with assets that are never recognized as costs in the production process. I have also never offered an alternative to the current methods and one that would be more in line with what the investment communities needs and what they would prefer to see from the producers. My point of view is there is no redeeming quality in a producer who capitalizes everything under the sun. And that is what the current SEC inspired full cost and successful efforts methods permit as the accounting treatment for recording of assets. What these methodologies do is enable the amount of the assets of the producers to expand to the limit of the reserve base times the current commodity price. Or, the probable entire future revenue of the producer. A significant value that represents the producers capitalized overhead and every and all field activity.

The alternative that I would suggest is simply that any controllable equipment be capitalized based on its vintage. This would better reflect what the assets of the producers are. The assets that are controllable are those that can be physically identified, separable and reused. Well heads, tubing, downhold pumps, pump jacks etc. What wouldn’t be capitalized in this is the intangible work that is done. The drilling, cementing, casing, fracing etc. These costs would be expensed as they are unrecoverable.

Now most people will bring in the argument that the property is worth so much more than its uncontrollable equipment. I say lets hope so. The fact that the property is worth more is a reflection of the market, and we are talking about the book value of the assets of the firm. When we are talking about the book value of the firm we are also determining the method of the profits and other attributes of the producers. Lets not confuse book value with market value like the SEC and public accounting firms have.

By letting the costs of the intangibles flow to the income statement in the current period, as our methodology would do. The producer will be profitable / unprofitable based on their level of activity. They are going to need higher levels of revenue in order to participate in the exploration and development process when it has an immediate hit to earnings. And with the decentralized production model enabling the price maker strategy, higher prices and higher revenues is what producers will have. Astute readers will realize that the producer will have few assets and probable losses and invoke the going concern questions from the public accountants. Certainly those that are unable to produce any value through development of their drilling and completion activities. These producers who can not generate value will be subject to immediate harsh criticism. This will be in sharp contrast to the party just beginning under the current methodology. Those that can’t build value will have difficulty with this methodology. I also think the motivation to overproduce in oil and natural gas will also be rectified.

The question is therefore what is the purpose of the current methodology of bloated balance sheets? Building up the costs of the assets on the books based on every conceivable cost within the producer. Allocating all of those costs to the reserves that are established. And then, only recognizing the asset costs of the reserves that are produced in the current year. It hides a lot of fudge. No costs are being recognized so everyone is making big profits. Allegedly. Yet they also have no cash. Perpetually having to beg, borrow and steal to keep afloat. Show me another industry where the book value is so consistent with or exceeds the market value of the firm. There is none. Companies like Apple have $750 billion market caps and $20 billion in assets. The difference has been expensed to offset the revenues and earnings. That’s what a mature business does. Recognizes its costs and gets rid of them. In oil and gas they collect their costs like they're ancient artifacts, only to be relinquished in the next millennia.

There is very good news in changing this accounting methodology when the Preliminary Specification is implemented. The capital costs of the past number of years and decades. That are sitting on the balance sheets of the producers. Will be moved to the income statements based on the above noted procedure. This will enable the investors to capture these values in after tax dollars. Recall that this altered methodology works hand in hand with the decentralized production model. Ensuring that no production is produced unprofitably. Making the producers price makers. Therefore recognizing that these past costs will need to be factored into the prices needed to make the producers profitable. This change in methodology will also convert these bloated balance sheets into healthy bank balances in the producer firms.

I'm sure thats another trillion or two of value added to our value proposition in comparison to the status quo bureaucracy.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Bureaucrats Win!

...the battle that is, the war however rages on. I needed that break. It became clear that the bureaucrats were successful in pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes for another fiscal year and surviving the “accountability test” these past few months. No need to approach the development of new systems and organizational methods, all is well, the bureaucrats were put on record as stating. And that is exactly what they will be expected to show for this fiscal year as it progresses. I wish them the best of luck with that. The facts still remain that their business is in a tragic state and they are doing exactly nothing about it. Other than developing and implementing their personal plans to maximize their gains, expand the cabin and smooth their exit.

I’m willing to concede that we lost this battle, however the war still needs to be fought. The book value of the producers is so bloated by the asset costs of the properties that the producers don't recognize any of the real costs of capital in the calculations of profits. In a normal business their retained earnings would be as bloated as their assets were. In the case of oil and gas producers they don't have any retained earnings and their bloated assets are therefore offset by investor money and debt. As long as the bureaucrat has a source of capital to continue their escapades they will continue on building their elaborate cabins in the mountains. The problem they have is that they have been living off junk bonds as their source of capital and there isn't any readily apparent form of capital after that. The bureaucrats ability to win these battles is diminishing quickly. The time for them to exit may soon be upon them.

Much of what I read and heard in the business market about the situation in oil and gas this past half year was a well orchestrated discussion of how the business would be in the future. We'll talk more about these points on Wednesday of this week. Let's assume for the moment that what I am stating is true. That producers put a shine on the business that is not consistent with the facts. At the same time I was “selling my book,” that change was needed in order to deal with some serious issues. I don't think, that is to say, it should not be assumed by the bureaucrat that this sales job of theirs necessarily won over the powers that be. There are two opposing points of view on how to manage the industry. I think it is reasonable to state that People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification and the bureaucrats “corporate model” are both being evaluated in the current market. One of the key differences between the two alternative models in the industry is that I can back my model up.

Recently OPEC met and resolved to continue with their status quo. If you dig down deep into their logic, for them to cut production requires them to determine which customers to tell to take a hike. Once a customer is forced to change their oil supplier it is nearly impossible for them to make the change back again. Why would that customer change? Therefore OPEC is doing what is in the best interests of their customers and ensuring that they keep those customers for as long as they can. Sounds like a pretty good strategy for OPEC to pursue. What is the shale producers strategy? We'll be discussing this more in the weeks and months to come. Other than deceiving their shareholders and bondholders, it is to lose money. Which is a pretty bad strategy. In oil you have 5 million barrels of shale production dictating the price of 93 million barrels of oil because you have some bureaucrats who are more interested in building out the cabin. In other words they just don't give a damn.

Let the evaluation of these alternative business models begin. Both methods have put their ideas and strategies on record. Just make sure that when you are evaluating these methods you are getting the truth from the protagonists. And be careful, there’s been a lot of fudge coming from one side.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

And That's the Way It Is

One of the problems that I have is that at night when I turn off the lights I glow radioactive. People know that I am associated with this 24 year legacy, and for good or bad, don’t want to be seen with something that is for all intents and purposes, bad for their career. So it is a dark green luminous radioactive discharge that I give off that repels people from wanting to be associated with this project, or me. Today is different, like every stopped watch my time has come. The problem is that I have no reach within the oil and gas industry in which I can leverage the strength of these ideas and raise our budget. This is good news for the bureaucracy. Being on the outside for so long has left me with no inside access.

I desperately want to build this software. There is very little that I can do to take it any closer than what it is today without our budget being secured. So how we get to that point, and when, is something that is unknown and unknowable by me at this time. I’m on the outside. And maybe it is that I have a flawed understanding of the situation in the oil and gas industry. That everything really is ok. And that the bureaucracy will have things well in hand in short order. That muddling it through will work out one more time. And maybe the Preliminary Specification is just too radical and too extensive of surgery to undertake in any industry at anytime. I think the answer to all of these questions are out of the hands of any one individual. And fate will be what determines the outcome of our efforts. I've provided a choice.

And I'll be satisfied with that. It is these past 24 years that I would not trade for anything. If you don’t look upon these as an adventure then you probably couldn't survive them. It has been an adventure. And I have survived. I look forward to what the future holds. I think I'll be taking a bit of time off. I will return June 22, 2015.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

A Call to Action

It was during these past 24 years that we have been able to conceive of a better way in which to operate the oil and gas industry. Something that would enable the dynamic, innovative and profitable oil and gas producer to deal with the issue and opportunities of the 21st century. In August 2003 we developed the use of the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the innovative oil and gas producer. By aligning the compliance and governance frameworks of the hierarchy with the legal, financial, operational decision making, cultural, communication, innovation and strategic frameworks of the Joint Operating Committee. We achieve a speed, innovativeness, accountability and profitability in the oil and gas producer. It is within the administrative and accounting domains that we realized this was valid. However we soon learned that it also applied within the operational domain.

Upon the realization of the value that developing software for the Joint Operating Committee provided the oil and gas industry. We then embarked on a “quick sprint” of research to determine what the industry and the producer would look like if we adopted the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct. Developing the “what” and “how” things would need to be in order to operate the industry and the producer with all of the frameworks aligned. This research was completed in December 2013 with the edited publication of the Preliminary Specification. So much for quick sprints! Of note and interest is it is these two attributes of our offering that the industry does not have to go through, the development of a new method and the research of how that method would work. I would suggest they would need to spend as much time as I have in order to develop an alternative to the Preliminary Specification. The full 24 years. If they have that much time and money available then they certainly have every right to do their own thing. However, People, Ideas & Objects are offering an effective short cut in time. I also started this in 1991 on the basis that I knew something was not working in the industry. It took me until August of 2003 to discover the solution is the Joint Operating Committee and then ten years of research to figure it all out. The Preliminary Specification exists, and it functions. Now that they see the problems they should congratulate themselves. Now those industry representatives can take the time and effort to find other alternatives, or, raise the budget for these developments, either way just leave my family out of it. Your in-direct approach only demeans you further.

The Preliminary Specification now needs to be developed. Like the San Francisco bridge it's expensive. But it also builds value as it solves the issues in the marketplace today. And those that will arise in the future. With all of the Joint Operating Committees frameworks in alignment with the compliance and governance frameworks. With the user community defining the needs of the software. With People, Ideas & Objects providing the software development capability. The industry will be able to have their issues resolved in a timely manner. Big issues and little issues. Making small and large changes. It won't matter, the ways and means of the industry will be accommodated in a timely fashion.

The bureaucracy have begun their migration to the retirement cabin. That the bureaucrats would leave their post when the industry issues are so prevalent is something that we have been stating, based on our research, for many years. It has now begun, and on the one hand the scope of the problems in the oil and gas producers are so big, there is no ambition that will overcome them. It is time to remove and replace the bureaucracy. However, the clock is ticking. The bureaucrats are leaving and that means they are putting the industry in greater jeopardy. Action on having our budget funded is necessary. I don't know who, and I don't know where but someone has to step up quickly and fund these developments.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Remember Its Cut and Run

It’s coming up to almost one year since the pressure on oil prices began. Natural gas prices look to me like an absolute disaster will be detonated some time this summer. This due to the storage facilities filling to capacity. The bureaucrats were therefore artful in getting through another annual report season. The time to cut your losses from the oil and gas industry is now. Those individuals at Cenovus last week were the first, but maybe they were the smartest of all of the bureaucrats. Remember, it’s cut and run. Metaphorically get out of town before the problems are so big that they come looking for scalps. In an industry that has been flushing trillions of dollars down the toilet. Using first the investors money and then when that dried up, shifting to junk bonds to fuel their deception. There will be hell to pay for those standing around looking conspicuous. Remember I place the focus of the cause of this issue on the SEC and the accounting firms for their accounting policies that don't recognize the cost of capital or overhead in the operations of oil and gas producers. The fact that the bureaucracy new better is a moot point, after all what did you expect, they're bureaucrats!

What to do, who to turn to? As I have mentioned here on several occasions I have been at this for over 24 years now. And I will be at this for another 24 years. I have the solution in the Preliminary Specification. And I will develop the software derived from the Preliminary Specification and lead the user community in its development and its creation of the sub-industry of service providers. The bureaucrats want and need to capitulate, I want the job. Fund my budget and let me get the job done. What do you have to lose. Well actually a lot. Trillions of dollars in fact. Keeping these self interested bureaucrats in power any longer is counter to the best interests of everyone. The sooner we can have the Preliminary Specification, the user community and service providers established the better. And all that is required at this point is for our budget to be funded.

I foresee a lot of pain to be experienced in the oil and gas sector. Approximately equivalent to what the banking sector saw in 2008. This is a disaster. The opportunity is therefore to fund us and let us get on with our job. And then wait until the fire sale of oil and gas properties begins. Big properties, little properties, producing properties, non-producing properties, profitable and unprofitable properties. Then when we have the Preliminary Specification, the user community and service providers operational you can have those acquired properties operated for you on the basis that we guarantee you the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. And that is how this transition to the new oil and gas environment will occur.

If you think otherwise. That an organization methodology conceived of in the 1920’s, built on technologies available in the 1980’s and with a bureaucracy that has ossified since the 1990’s. That an organization of that pedigree in this market has a chance. Then your choice is made up and I can do nothing to convince you otherwise. I found this quote about the times that we find ourselves in today. Its from Tom Goodwin of Havas Media.

Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles. Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner, creates no content. Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory. And Airbnb, the world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate. Something interesting is happening.

But maybe, just maybe oil and gas is immune to these types of forces. And the bureaucracy will succeed in fooling some new source of unknown capital. Beyond the junk bond market that is. That will line up to invest in a business that can’t stop overproducing or recognize any of its costs. And we can all just sing kumbaya and drink penakolada’s. If so, then you can count me out.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

It's a Confidence Game

Last week we briefly discussed the levels of intervention by governments in the banking business. There are estimates that over $22 trillion in support has been used in various quantitative easing programs and other forms of fed policy interventions. You would think that after almost seven years the problems that caused the great recession in 2008 would have passed by now. Why is there a continued high level of government involvement in the financial industry? I think that the confidence of the average person in the financial marketplace was shaken to the point where there was question to the viability of that marketplace. Were my investments safe? I can recall many people liquidating their portfolios and not trusting the integrity of the system itself. Restoring the confidence of the people in the viability of the system is the effect that the fed governor and their European and Japanese counterparts are trying to achieve.

We also hop in the car for a cross country trip every once in a while. Expect to fly to wherever as soon as possible. And see the seasons change with little thought to how we’ll keep warm and dry during the winter. We are confident people. And it is this confidence that provides us with the ability to experience high levels of Gross Domestic Product on an individual basis. Our quality of life is very good. And unlike in the banking industry nothing could happen to shake that confidence and put in jeopardy our way of life. Maybe it's in our nature to realize the downfall of our ways and means before we begin to appreciate them. That to solve problems proactively is unnecessary and subject to the whims of the ridiculous. I could certainly agree with that.

If it takes at least seven years and $22 trillion to fix the confidence in the banking system. And it doesn't seem that we are that close to declaring victory there. How long would it take if people lost confidence in the ability to rely on the oil and gas industry if those capabilities were suddenly removed and put into question. Would people be able to just carry on? Reduce their demands and proceed as they were? In California in the 1970’s we saw the successful implementation of gas rationing throughout that state. In a novel implementation, those with even numbered license plates were allowed gas on alternate days to those with odd numbered license plates. And except for the lines that were very long at the gas pumps, and the fact that those pumps were emptied relatively quickly each day, the rationing was a screaming success!

We should give a thought to our friends the bureaucrats in this scenario as well. What will the likelihood of abundant marine fuel be at the cabin? We saw last Wednesday half of Cenovus’ leadership team announced their retirement. Now I ask you, who would have thought that that might happen? Wholesale losses of the leadership team! Bureaucrats don't abandon ship when the going gets tough! I think we should expect to see the rush to the doors begin in earnest now. Who really wants to stick around and clean this mess up? If you note in the Cenovus press release there really are no replacements. No one to replace the Executive VP and COO of the firm. A coveted prize of the energy bureaucrat.

And those bureaucrats that are not ready to retire will be seeking their fortunes in other industries. You really can't quantify the level of inertia that is needed to overcome the bureaucracy in these producers and make the necessary changes. It saps the energy out of even the most ambitious. And that is why we need to start with a blank slate. Something like the Preliminary Specification where people can begin building the future of the industry so that we can confidently move forward in society.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

I Know, It's Ridiculous!

We have now entered the phase in which the bureaucracy have become untouchable. Annual report and annual general meeting season are over. Accountability is no more. As I mentioned the other day, thoughts move to the cabin and the pension benefits that will be earned over the next nine months of relative stress free living. Has anyone noticed that the level of discussion in the industry regarding the situation that it's in is non-existent! And isn't it odd that the “strength” in oil and gas prices seems to have abated. What to do? I guess one could join the crowded highways and enjoy the summer months with the bureaucrats. Or, depending on your point of view. That is if you agree with the points that I have made here before. And you are an investor in oil and gas, or are a potential user community participant there is much that we can do while the brain trust parties the summer away.

It is ridiculous to expect that our budget will be funded. Just as it is ridiculous to think that the bureaucrats will change and fix the problems in the industry. And just as ridiculous to think that the ridiculous tens of trillions of dollars of our value proposition will come about without the Preliminary Specification. And so here we sit and wait for that one unhappy individual that realizes that as ridiculous as all this is. Someone has to pull the trigger and fund these developments before it's too late. Too late being the bureaucracy find the pension benefits too healthy and the cabin too comfortable to bother with accounting for their actions three months of the year and retire. Then there will be no one and nothing in which to operate the industry. But that is a ridiculous assertion.

All of this doesn't seem too ridiculous to me. There are a large number of people who read these words each and every day. Some may be doing it for entertainment, others may agree with the ridiculous nature of the problem. In most cases they may be living with the difficulties in the oil and gas producers and know that there is a better way and see how the Preliminary Specification can help to solve those issues. They also know that their careers are not going anywhere with the status quo and are stuck in an unchanging environment that is unhealthy for all concerned. It is these people that the Preliminary Specification appeals to. And it is these people that I see as the potential market for the user community participant.

The banking crisis that we experienced in 2008 was evident to everyone, everywhere for many years. Watching house prices rise to levels that no sane person would want to participate in. Having mortgages for those houses being issued to people without full time work, or liar loans as they were called, and then having those mortgages “securitized” and sold to “willing” investors was a bad business model. Then they took it the level of creating synthetic derivatives of mortgages. And thats when people really began to make money. Anyway we all know the history and the fact that the banks are still not able to stand on their own without massive, unprecedented fed stimulus. Which has become about as normal as the summertime commute to the cabin.

The business model of the oil and gas producer is no longer functioning to provide any value to anyone. Except the bureaucrats. They need to keep full production to ensure that they can cover their salary, benefits, pensions and perks. Outside of that who cares what happens to the industry. The problem is that there is no fed to flood the market with deliverability if the oil and gas industry fails in the manner that the banks did in 2008. There is no “adult” supervision. There is only the energy that we depend on for everything that we are. But then again, in a very big way, that too is ridiculous.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.