Our Solution Part XI
The lessons that were being dished out in 2008 were related to the volumes of debt that were being created. Too many people were buying too many houses they could not afford. Mechanisms in which to finance the probable defaults became innovative and this party carried on for a decade or two to long. The solution of course was to drop interest rates to zero and ease the burden on those who were indebted. This would buy them the time they needed in order to repair their financial position and then the economy would continue on. Well its been six years and the problem is that no one is repairing their financial positions. For example the Chinese who entered the great recession in pretty good shape have quadrupled the amount of debt that the governments, industries and people now owe. Just in six years. Oil and gas producers have to have a strong source of capital in order to fund a capital intensive industry. But when they run it with the commodity prices so far underwater, then they really need money. So debt is what has fueled the party for the past six years. But remember its at low interest rates!
And here we are today. The bureaucrats cabin is in fine shape. Able to handle the retirement years of the average bureaucrat in the style of a king. The only real concern to their retirement plans is what will it cost to fuel the boat? If you believe that the bureaucrats are going to be sticking it out through the disaster that they've created then you have a higher opinion of them than I. If they could have fixed these problems in the past, don't you think that they would have? The fact of the matter is that change is not their forte and they are being forced to perform now, or will be soon. And that’s hard. Don't assume that the situation that exists today will last much longer and for them to be able to deal with the outcome. Here is a comment from the Wall Street Journal regarding the Fed and the ability to deal with the poor performing economy.
It’s heresy to say so, but maybe after six years of zero-interest rates, and long after the financial crisis ended, the Fed should wonder if its policies haven’t become an impediment to faster growth. Maybe letting markets begin to set interest rates again would lead to a better allocation of capital and less economic uncertainty. At the very least the Fed should start analyzing why its forecasts have been so wrong for so long.
If interest rates do rise. Something that is a given because they certainly can’t go down. Those with bloated balance sheets, whose purpose is to hide the high levels of debt. Who have not been honest with the total costs of what it takes to produce. Have been overproducing for many years. With that overproduction being undertaken to cover the cost of the overhead of the huge bureaucracy. It should be clear to most that this is the brick wall that is a few feet away from the bumper of the speeding vehicle. We should have made the changes in our velocity a while ago, but their was also the cottage that needed many, many things.
2008 was a wakeup call for everyone regarding the debts that they were carrying. Time was provided through quantitative easing and other antics to deal with our debts, not to incur more. How much longer will low interest rates go on for is the question. Its kind of like during that game of musical chairs that we played when we were younger, anticipating when the music would stop. Has anyone told the investors and bankers that there are no chairs? If anyone expects the bureaucrats to come with a plan, a vision or an excuse, don't wait too long. It doesn't matter what the bureaucrats do. These forces are well in play and will have them removed from, or see them leave, the scenery. What we need to do is to continue to focus on the development of our user community, and then to rebuild the industry around the Preliminary Specification.
The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.