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Natural gas prices averaged $3.70 for the 2013 calendar year. That’s up a full $0.70 from the 2012 year and everyone’s prayers for a cold winter seem to have been answered. But is it enough? Far from it. The average prices needed for a healthy natural gas industry are estimated to be in the range of $6.70. A full $3.00 short of where it should be. If we take our same assumptions from last year. That it would require producers to shut-in 15% of their production to attain the $6.70 average price. And those shut-in production volumes were obtained by using our Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model. Then the opportunity costs in comparing our model to the bureaucracies current business model for 2013 was an additional $76 billion in incremental natural gas revenues. We add these to the 2012 opportunity costs for a running total of $170 billion in incremental revenue that the industry could of had and note that this might be one of the reasons the bureaucracy are not listed as a stakeholder of People, Ideas & Objects.
What we do know is that the bureaucracy is well aware of the value that they are destroying in not subscribing to the development of the Preliminary Specification. Their activities this past year in hiring Ernst & Young to conduct that study makes it obvious that they are aware of the value that they are destroying and chose to do something about it. What it is they chose to do about it is unknown however. I would suggest that they wanted to sit on it, or set up a committee to see if they could kill it. Such is the ways of these intellectually challenged and lazy behemoths we all know and love.
Nonetheless the word about the decentralized production model is getting out and the investor class will hear much more of it in the 2014 year. It is a logical, constructive and financially sound business model that the industry must move to for its survival. The North American natural gas producer has 200 years of natural gas reserves on hand. If they continue to provide all of those reserves to the marketplace at once the market prices will remain depressed. What is needed is production discipline that is focused around the profitability of the production. That is what the decentralized production model provides. Then and only then can the producer begin to think that the pricing of the commodity can return to some rational basis of heating value in comparison to oil.
What the decentralized production model does is strip the prototypical producer down to the C class executives, earth science and engineering resources, some land and legal, and support staff. The remainder of the resources are moved to service providers who are focused on a process, or part of a process, and use the entire industry as their client base. These service providers, such as production, revenue and royalty accountants will specialize on their tasks and divide their labor in more efficient ways. The production accountant may provide services to a number of gas plants that they are geographically located next too. The revenue accountant may focus on propane as a specialty. And the royalty accountant will focus on eligible capital for gas cost allowance purposes for the Texas Railroad Commission. Each of these service providers will conduct their tasks for the entire producer population and each month will send a bill for their services to the individual Joint Operating Committee.
It is here at this point when the property is not earning any profits that the Joint Operating Committee determines to shut it in until commodity prices return to a higher level. What happens as a result, under the decentralized production model, is that none of the administrative or accounting service providers are tasked with any work on the property for the months that the property is shut-in. As a result there are no billings for any of the administrative or overhead charges. The only charges that will be coming through for the property will be for the costs of capital. All of the operations, administration and overhead charges will have stopped.
The result of this is that the property records a null operation. No profit, however no loss either. The reserves are held for a time for when they can be produced profitably and the commodity is removed from the marketplace helping to place a floor under the price of the commodity. All that is needed is for all producers to adhere to this production discipline and the commodity prices will reach their appropriate equilibrium. That however requires that the decentralized production model be effective in the marketplace. Well it doesn’t require it, but the producers don’t seem to be able to do so without it.
The reason they don't shut-in production is that they are carrying too much overhead. Their overhead are fixed and there is nothing they can do about it. If they cut production their overheads look out of place and are forced to lay off staff in the long run. Hurting the firm in terms of its administrative and accounting capabilities. What the decentralized production model does is move the producer away from its reliance on its administrative and accounting capabilities and onto a reliance on the industries administrative and accounting capabilities.
In our scenario the service providers could be faced with at any time a decline of 15% of their service fees. And they can budget for that eventuality as a normal course of their business. The decentralized production model provides the producer and Joint Operating Committee variable administrative and overhead costs and the service provider the ability to actually control the G&A costs of the industry. A fundamentally different perspective on the way in which to operate the business in the environment where shale gas reserves exist.
The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz