Tuesday, December 03, 2013

Dynamic Data and Information

How the innovative producer attains a higher factor of innovation is through a constant search for more production, higher prices, lower costs and more effective management of their oil and gas assets. This search in many instances will begin with a query in either the Performance Evaluation module for the Joint Operating Committee or the Analytics & Statistics module for the producer firm itself. Having access to the data and information of the respective domain provides the user with the ability to formulate queries on the basis of different scenarios, what if’s, and other mathematical calculations. Big deal, something that most people can do with a day of training on a spreadsheet. And that would be part of the situation, however there is more.

If we go back to earlier parts of this module we find that performance is a key motivating principle behind the use of the module. People are using these modules to find the next increment in value. To determine where that value resides requires these specialized tools to find it. Recall that these are subject to the Security & Access Control module, therefore the data and information that they can access will be limited to the domain of the users authority. And the application modules will be collaborative, therefore they are able to interact with others.

Running a query is a fairly basic operation that is static in its output. The result just sits in the spreadsheet for the user to act upon. Within the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules we can invoke the messaging services which include the following processes: person to person, person to process, process to person and process to process, on any of the system processes. Therefore if you had a process that was running, and at any time that process attained a point in time of which you wanted to know, then you could have the system text you. Or if the same process attained its completion, then you could have it invoke another process to initiate some other action, or you could have the option of texting the system to invoke a number of different scenarios. Adding these messaging processes brings the power of the ERP system into play from the point of view of using these calculations to carry out some action.

Professor Giovanni Dosi (1988) states that profit motivated agents must involve both “the perception of some sort of opportunity and an effective set of incentives.” (p. 1135) Professor Dosi introduces the theory of Schmookler (1966) and asked “are the observed inter-sectoral differences in innovative investment the outcome of different incentive structures, different opportunities or both”? (p. 1135) Schmookler believed in differing degrees of economic activity derived from the same innovate inputs. The incentive to find the innovation, and the opportunity to find it are both contained within the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules.

The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.

Collaborations Risks and Rewards

Working in isolation we can achieve a lot of what we set out to do. When we collaborate with others then the possibilities grow exponentially. Setting about to review a mountain of data seems like a fun task, for a few people I’m sure that might ring true. However, for most people the possibility that they will find joy in the task is somewhat limited. As a team however, the task becomes something of an adventure with the findings being a multiple of what one individual might discover. A collaborative capability needs to be a necessary part of the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules.

Professor Giovanni Dosi noted that a technological trajectory is the activity of technological process along the economic and technological trade offs defined by a paradigm. Dosi (1988) states “Trade-offs being defined as the compromise, and the technical capabilities that define horsepower, gross takeoff weight, cruise speed, wing load and cruise range in civilian and military aircraft.” People, Ideas & Objects assumes the technical trade-off in oil and gas is accurately reflected in the commodity pricing. Higher commodity prices finance enhanced innovation.

These trade-offs facilitate the ability for industries to innovate on the changing technical and scientific paradigms. Crucial to the facilitation of these trade-offs is a fundamental component that spurs the change and is usually abundant and available at low costs. For innovation to occur in oil and gas, People, Ideas & Objects asserts that the ability to seek and find knowledge, and to collaborate are two “commodities” that are abundant today. With their inherent low direct costs, knowledge and collaboration are the triggers for a number of technical paradigms which will provide companies with fundamental innovations.

Collaborating and sharing knowledge in the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules, as well as the other modules of the Preliminary Specification, will fuel innovation. Whether that collaboration is within a producer firm, a Joint Operating Committee or a working group that has recently been established through a Work Order. Access to these two modules should enable the participants to evaluate the data with the toolset provided in the modules. The only limitation that I would hope to impose on the use of these tools is a reasonable amount of free computer time.

Making these two modules collaborative will turn them into well used applications that will be used by many. Not the obscure applications used by the data obsessed. Remember Professor Dosi says that “In very general terms, technological innovation involves or is the solution to problems.” Discovery of those problems can be collaboratively done here in the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules.

What we do know is that “things” happen fast. Except in organizations. Providing the people with the appropriate knowledge and information for them to act in a fast changing environment is difficult. Some of the difficulty in getting the knowledge and information to the right people was to ensure the integrity of the information was not breached by those that were not part of the organization. And don’t get me wrong I’m not recommending an open information policy. The Security & Access Control module imposes high levels of integrity on all the communications and storage of data and information. The collaborations however between firms being open is where there may be some perceived leakage of proprietary losses of knowledge. And it is here in these open communications that I am asking if any information losses impose any risk to the innovative oil and gas producers competitive advantages of their land and asset base, or earth science and engineering capabilities, or innovativeness. No they don’t. As we have learned in fact the collaborations enhance the innovativeness and the capabilities of the firm.

The question therefore becomes how is this proprietary information and capability deployed on an as needed basis? Professor Giovanni Dosi notes that although the free movement of information has occurred in industries for many years, yet has never been easily transferable to other companies within those industries. The ability to replicate a competitive advantage from one company to another is not as easy, and may indeed be not worthwhile doing. Dosi (1988) goes one step further and states, “even with technology license agreements, they do not stand as an all or nothing substitute for in house search.” A firm needs to develop “substantial in-house capacity in order to recognize, evaluate, negotiate and finally adapt the technology potentially available from others.” Therefore why not focus on the need to increase the company's own unique and specific competitive sources and directions?

Collaborations in the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules of the Preliminary Specification will provide greater value in getting new and innovative ideas and information to the right people in the right place at the right time. These are the attributes the firm should be pursuing rather than any concern for any risks of losing any proprietary data or information. We noted that innovation involved the discovery of problems. It also includes change which Professor Dosi notes in the following.

Organizational routines and higher level procedures to alter them in response to environmental changes and / or to failures in performance embody a continuous tension between efforts to improve the capabilities of doing existing things, monitor existing contracts, allocate given resources, on the one hand, and the development of capabilities for doing new things or old things in new ways. This tension is complicated by the intrinsically uncertain nature of innovative activities, notwithstanding their increasing institutionalization within business firms. p. 1133

It would therefore seem prudent for an innovative producer to enable the collaborations in all of the modules of the Preliminary Specification as a key to their innovation strategy. And to focus on dealing with the change in the routines as a result of the discovery and solutions to problems and the changes in their capabilities. These are the areas where the innovative oil and gas producer is going to need to deal with the outcomes of the innovation, and the overall capability to continue to innovate.

The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.

Monday, December 02, 2013

A World of Data

Turning once again to Professor Giovanni Dosi for the determination of the three key factors of innovation. He notes that they are the result of the “search, development and adoption of new processes and products in market economies and are the outcomes of the interaction between:”

  • Capabilities and stimuli generated with each firm and within the industry of which they compete.
  • Broader causes external to the individual industries, such as the state of science in different branches, the facilities for the communication of knowledge, the supply of technical capabilities, skills, engineers etc.
  • Additional issues include the conditions controlling occupational and geographical mobility and or consumer promptness / resistance to change, market conditions, financial facilities and capabilities and the criteria used to allocate funds. Microeconomic trends in the effects on changes in relative prices of inputs and outputs, including public policy. (regulation, tax codes, patent and trademark laws and public procurement.)

While in the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules the user would be searching for information or some insight into the data. This is the beginning of the innovation process and the tools provided in these modules would be part of the capabilities necessary for innovation to be developed within the innovative oil and gas producer. This is clearly evident by Professor Dosi’s three key factors. With the growth in data expected to continue. Users of these tools would find a rich resource to develop a perspective of looking at the data from an innovative point of view.

Lately we have heard about a new field of data that is growing in importance. Unstructured data. Data that isn't managed by a database and has no implied meaning to its structure. The marketplace modules of the Preliminary Specification, the Resource, Petroleum Lease and Financial Marketplace modules and to a lesser extent the Research & Capabilities module all have “marketplaces” within them. These marketplaces would have substantial unstructured data that would be of use to those potential users of the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules.

Taking a step out further, these two modules should not be constrained to the internal systems of the producers. They should have the ability to access other sources of data and information, structured and unstructured, so that the user can use all three of Professor Dosi’s key factors of innovation to develop new and innovative ideas. It might be worthwhile to have a “Help” section within the People, Ideas & Objects modules. A section that includes the research of Professor Giovanni Dosi’s work on innovation. Then people would have a quick reference as to items like the three key factors so that they could use them in their day to day tasks to help develop a more innovative mindset.

For example, Professor Giovanni Dosi states “In very general terms, technological innovation involves or is the solution to problems.” Dosi goes on to further define this as “In other words, an innovative solution to a certain problem involves “discovery” (of the problem) and “creation” since no general algorithm can be derived from the information about the problems. Solutions to technological problems involve the use of information derived from experience and formal knowledge. It is the specific and un-codified capabilities, or tacit-ness” as Professor Dosi describes “on the part of the inventors who discover the creative solution.”

It is therefore asked specifically, how can the knowledge, information and capability of oil and gas firms solve the technical and scientific problems of the future? How can a firm more effectively employ its capability to solve problems and facilitate the discovery of new problems and creation of their solutions? These are the questions that the Preliminary Specification is determined to answer. From the perspective of the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules I think we can provide the user with a variety of tools that helps them to drill down into the data and ask the questions that haven't been asked. People, Ideas & Objects is an ERP system, however, as we have shown with the modules in the Preliminary Specification there is a lot of data and information that is generated through collaborations and the documenting of items. It won't be just accountants that will want to use these two modules, but anyone that is employed by a producer firm or Joint Operating Committee.

Here is a quick summary of some of the functionality and process management the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules provide the user.

  • The ability to rise above the transactional work that is being managed by the other modules. We are moving from recording of transactions to designing transactions in many of the modules. Leaving the recording of transactions to the computers and the analysis to the users of these modules. 
  • Use of the “R” statistical language as an embedded program within both of the modules. 
  • Configured user tools that enable the user to demo, or build small applications that fit small niche needs. If these needs grew to where more people wanted similar programs they could be used as a prototype for the People, Ideas & Objects developers to build. 
  • Querying and determining where the performance and direction of the firms or Joint Operating Committees value is found. Allowing people to focus on that value generation and avoid the potential destruction of value. 


The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.

User Focused Development Tools

When it comes to what we are currently given to work with in terms of ERP systems, they can leave much to be desired. If only we could have “this, that and the other thing,” our lives would be so much easier. It seems simple, however, the inertia necessary to overcome just “this” requires the fortitude and political skills of a saint. So we continue on in what can only be described as someone's bureaucratic vision. People, Ideas & Objects seeks to resolve some of the issues users are faced with in confronting the “this, that and the other thing” in systems by basing our development in the user community. Inherent in that offering is that People, Ideas & Objects are not conflicted by the traditional constraints of software code and customers. That is to say we only earn our fees based on changes to the software code, we are therefore agents of change, not seeking to obstruct change.

The point is that when it comes to having the user enhance the system. People, Ideas & Objects business is motivated from a business perspective to do so. That’s how we earn our revenue. Our point of view is that the software is in a state of constant improvement, driven by its users imagination and needs.

So when the time comes for a user to think that if they had “this, that and the other thing.” They will have a means to effect that change and have it fulfilled through the user community. But this isn't about that process of change specifically. Its about the stop gap measure that they may want to implement in the short term while they wait for the user community to implement their idea.

For that stop gap measure we turn to the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules of the Preliminary Specification. These modules will have the ability, since they have access to the data, to prepare ad-hoc reports that the user can develop for themselves. Granted most of these user developed reports won't be ready for prime time, however for the purposes of the user they can fit the need in the short term.

The user generated reporting tool will be part of both the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules. And provide the user with a sophisticated graphical user interface to manipulate the data and develop queries. We've all seen these tools before and I’m not really suggesting anything new here. What I think is different however is the access to the data will be different. First that the volumes of data will be greater and secondly the Security & Access Control module will be providing the access to that data and information based on the users privileges.

The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.

Friday, November 29, 2013

The Downside of Analytics

I have seen this happen many times in oil and gas. Situations where the divestiture of assets is done without the full understanding of how the asset fits into the overall makeup of the organization. These types of situations happen when the performance mindset takes over all rational thought and the highest performance wins over every other consideration. This is the danger of these analytical tools and as we move into a period of a sharper more accurate tool set, that danger becomes more prevalent.

There’s math, and then there’s strategy. The situation we see where the oil and gas firm that runs into difficulty financially, or operationally begins to rationalize their asset base. They think they need to raise money by selling some assets. So they naturally think they'll sell some of their “midstream” assets. The gas plants, gathering and processing facilities that earn only a fee for service on the customer products processed. These assets, when looked at from a financial performance point of view, don’t come close to even being on the right street where the ballpark is on. Therefore they get sold for the high replacement cost that they would receive and the seller thinks they made a good deal. The fact of the matter is that the majority of the smaller producers may have been selling the C3+ products directly to you for fire sale prices because they have no capacity to deal with them. You being the only one in the area with processing facilities were able to negotiate a very good bargain and acquire the majority of the natural gas liquids in the area for literally the royalty costs. Now that the plant is sold, those products are lost and that production is gone to the new owners of the plant.

The majority of the oil and gas producers that I have seen and studied take a while to fully understand what exactly is happening. What seems to be a jumble of activity for no apparent reason can, upon further study, become a symphony of brilliance assembled by someone of such great vision it can be truly breathtaking. Selling a gas plant out from the middle of this shows that the seller can’t see the vision and the assets are no longer going to perform as expected. Having tools like the Analytics & Statistics and Performance Evaluation modules in the hands of people who may not fully appreciate the vision of how the firm was built could have detrimental effects to the overall health of the firm.

If we go back to something we reviewed a while ago about the decision rights we find this quotation from Professor Richard Langlois.

The question then becomes: why are capabilities sometimes organized within firms, sometimes decentralized in markets, and sometimes coordinated by a myriad contractual and ownership arrangements like joint ventures, franchisees, and networks? Explicitly echoing Hayek, Jensen and Meckling (1992, p.251) point out that economic organization must solve two different kinds of problems: "the rights assignment problem (determining who should exercise a decision right) and the control or agency problem (how to ensure that self-interested decision agents exercise their rights in a way that contributes to the organizational objective)." There are basically two ways to ensure such a "collocation" of knowledge and decision making: "One is by moving the knowledge to those with the decision rights; the other is by moving the decision rights to those with the knowledge." (Jensen and Meckling 1992 p. 253). p. 9

In People, Ideas & Objects we have moved the knowledge to those with the decision rights, which reside with the Joint Operating Committee. And as opposed to contradicting ourselves, we find clarification of this issue in the following fact. The decision rights held by the Joint Operating Committee are the operational decision making authority. The strategic decision rights regarding ownership and divestiture are held by each individual producer regarding each of their working interest shares. Therefore there is no risk that the property is going to be “harmed” in any material way by making a strategic decision of that type in the Performance Evaluation module. It is beyond the scope of the authority of the Joint Operating Committee. It is fair to assume that the scope of the authority of the decision made through the Performance Evaluation module will be limited to the operational concerns, and be mitigated on the downside to the short term. That is to say any negative decision would be reversed as soon as it is realized.

I think nonetheless it would be worthwhile to have a strategy review “attached” to each decision based on the Analytics & Statistics and Performance Evaluation based decision. That the decision has some analysis that is purely qualitative to counter the quantitative elements of the modules. If this qualitative analysis could be embedded into the modules for documentation purposes that would build value in these modules specifications.

The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.

Introduction to Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics

The Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules have similar interfaces, the Performance Evaluation is focused on the Joint Operating Committee and the Analytics & Statistics module is focused on the producer firm. Essentially these are user based tools that enable analytical and statistical calculations run against the data and information that are contained within the People, Ideas & Objects ERP systems and other unstructured data. Providing users with the ability to analyze data in new and innovative ways in seeking value for their firm or JOC.

The types of data and information that are prepared and presented in these modules is dependent on the individual users and will in most instances be unique, based on their needs and interests, their scope of authority and the type of work they do. When it comes to who will come up with the next great innovation we should expect that it will come from anywhere. Part of the process of innovation is discovery of the problem and we all see the situation from different perspectives. Therefore the point of view and the innovation will depend to a large extent on those different perspectives. Someone working in the trenches may find innovations that affect their work materially, which may not interest others and vice-versa. This process of discovery should be assisted by the types of tools that include the Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics modules. Professor Giovanni Dosi notes.

Thus, I shall discuss the sources of innovation opportunities, the role of markets in allocating resources to the exploration of these opportunities and in determining the rates and directions of technological advances, the characteristics of the processes of innovative search, and the nature of the incentives driving private agents to commit themselves to innovation.

Irrespective of the source of the innovation the fact that it materially affects someone's work should indicate that it should be followed through. These opportunities are hard to discover and we need to be able to evaluate them and assess them based on their impact and their ability to build value. What sometimes appears to be a good idea can also sometimes become an area where the firm could be exposed to unnecessary risk or loss. Having the historical data available is necessary, however, in the 21st century it is also necessary to have these advanced analytical tools available to analyze that data.

In the Preliminary Research Report, People Ideas & Objects determined two important findings. One was that the process of innovation can be reduced to a quantifiable and replicable process. Analytical tools are part of that process. And two, that the Joint Operating Committee is the key organizational framework for innovation in the oil and gas industry. Therefore having analytical tools in the Joint Operating Committee and producer firm are critical.

Tools for the 21st Century

This discussion deals with the motivations of people to use the Analytics & Statistics and Performance Evaluation modules of the People, Ideas & Objects applications. It's one thing to have statistical analysis tools available for those who are inclined to use them. It's another to have these tools being used by people who are actively looking for the next measure of performance or metric that will reflect how their performance can be improved. This latter use is the reason for these tools to be in the eleven module Preliminary Specification.

We pick up on our discussion from the McKinsey article “The 21st Century Organization.” We now discuss the fourth element of that paper “Measuring Performance.”

The final set of ideas rounding out this new organizational model involves relinquishing some level of supervisory control and letting people direct themselves, guided by performances metrics, protocols, standards, values, and consequence management systems. 

And as noted in the “The 21st Century Organization” people are not measured and told explicitly what to do in their jobs. There is too much activity going on for someone to be doling out task lists to mindless automatons. What the responsible and productive person needs to do in this world of massive information and activity is to focus on what is important. To deal with the critical value generating areas of their jobs that can add, and avoid destroying, value. That is where the Analytics & Statistics and Performance Evaluation modules of the Preliminary Specification come into play. Providing the user with the ability to focus on building value for their clients and employers, the oil and gas producers.

Whether they are earth scientists or engineers, business related or in any field that the oil and gas industry employs, access to the data and information through these modules will be critical to building value. Using the “dashboard” metaphor where algorithms are constantly monitoring various processes. The user would be running statistical and analytical programs that will look at data in new and innovative ways. It could be conceivable that some people may dedicate large percentages of their time of the day to thinking of new ways to analyze the data and information that is available to them.

The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Conclusion to the Knowledge & Learning Module

As a point of interest when I read that last quote I became concerned for the Natural Gas business in North America. The size of the Natural Gas storage business has become so large as to dwarf any real purpose for its existence. The other aspect is, the storage business is no longer in the hands of the producers. How then in a market economy will the producers ever get market prices for their product again? The answer is in my opinion only through an industry wide deployment of People, Ideas & Objects decentralized production model.

As with the Research & Capabilities module, I am very satisfied with the content of the Knowledge & Learning module. It is through this module that we are moving the knowledge to where the decision rights reside, the Joint Operating Committee. In the latter part of the modules specification we take the opportunity to isolate and berate the bureaucracy of the current oil and gas companies. The bureaucracy have a unique characteristic that is easily identified and criticized. I for one am only happy to be the one that offers up the discussion. But the larger point of discussion is the war that rages between the bureaucracy that exists in every industry and the Information Technologies as represented by the Internet. As I have stated I’ve placed my bet on who will win this war, as I would suggest everyone else should determine which side they are on.

The role of software in society is becoming more pronounced. We are still in the beginning stages of what can be done. For an industry such as oil and gas to continue on without the software development capabilities that People, Ideas & Objects is proposing, and the organizational structure focused on the Joint Operating Committee, the prospects look dim. It is our claim that we provide the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. And we do.

First by providing our software through the most cost effective manner. That is charging our subscriber base for the one time costs of developments. And secondly, that in order to attain a higher level of economic output requires that the industry employ higher levels of specialization and division of labor. In order to organize that specialization and division of labor requires the use of the software specified in the Preliminary Specification. There is no other means in which to organize a higher level of specialization and division of labor. The bureaucracy is tapped out. And lastly I should point out the $94 billion in 2012 opportunity costs as a result of using the decentralized production model.

When it comes to undertaking a large project such as People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification. And we have costed the total software development project in the area of $2 to 4 billion in its first commercial release. Is the need to maintain a sense of urgency for the people involved through to the end of the project. As we know, most of the people will remain motivated as long as the money keeps flowing. So how do we ensure that the money keeps flowing? It is through the fact that we provide the most profitable means of oil and gas operations that we can motivate the producers to maintain their sense of urgency in keeping this project funded and moving forward to its conclusion. Their alternative is the bureaucracy and we see how well they’re doing. In the future it may not be enough to own the oil and gas asset. It will also be required to access the software that makes the oil and gas asset profitable, that is the importance of software in tomorrow’s society.

People, Ideas & Objects is derivative of Professor Paul Romer’s “New Growth Theory." That is that economic growth is the result of People, Ideas and Things. We just exchanged “things” with “objects” as we are object based software developers. I highly recommend reading his interview on “New Growth Theory” it will provide you with a good understanding of the theory and how it pertains to the Preliminary Specification. It states that we need to structure the right institutions. “This new theory says technological change comes about if you have the right institutions.” Oil and gas being of course one of the most technical of all industries.

Within the Knowledge & Learning module we have the capabilities of the producer firms that are participants in the Joint Operating Committee. Each capability contains the knowledge, skills, experience and ideas of the people who are part of that producer firm and the service industry representatives. As we have learned “knowledge begets capability, and capability begets action." Quotes are from Professor Richard Langlois book “The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism: Schumpeter, Chandler and the New Economy.”

Indeed, the job of the entrepreneur is precisely to introduce new knowledge. The “Circular Flow of Economic Life” is a state in which knowledge is not changing. Economic growth occurs at the hands of entrepreneurs, who bring into the system knowledge that is qualitatively new – knowledge not contained in the existing economic configuration. p. 27

Here we begin to see the role that people take in the makeup of the oil and gas industry. And to sum it up is to state that it is everything. One also needs to consider the role of computers in these “actions” and that it amounts to not very much. People, Ideas & Objects divides the jobs between what people do well, the thinking, generation of ideas, leadership, collaborating, deciding and learning and leaves the memory and processing to the computers.

There has to be a mechanism by which new knowledge enters the system. And that mechanism cannot be rational calculation, for as David Hume (1978, p. 164) long ago observed, “no kind of reasoning can give rise to a new idea.” p. 27

There is much to be done in the industry and a lot of it involves blazing new trails. The hard work is what the people will need to be involved in doing. The challenges and opportunities are of historical significance and will require the dedication of a lot of people.

What has been done already has the sharp-edged reality of all things which we have seen and experienced; the new is only the figment of our imagination. Carrying out a new plan and acting according to a customary one are things as different as making a road and walking along it. p. 27

The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.

Markets Replacing Bureaucracies

We see with the decline in natural gas prices that the bureaucracy are not attuned to the market or the “price” system. The bureaucracy are more familiar when they have control of everything and it operates as it should. Well unfortunately for them the scope of their authority is not as a broad as it once may have been. What other areas has the market been sending price signals that the bureaucracy refuse to hear? We can only imagine. The fact of the matter is that the oil and gas producer and the Joint Operating Committee need to be attuned to the marketplace in order to better understand the business. They also need to have better Information Technologies so that they can know that they are not making any money on natural gas that sells below $6.00. We can in the last item of this next quote learn that the bureaucracies lack of hearing is symptomatic of their species. Quotations are from Professor Richard Langlois book “The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism: Schumpeter, Chandler, and the New Economy."

As Chandler tells us on the first page of The Visible Hand, two characteristics set the managerial corporation apart from earlier modes: (1) it is overseen by salaried professionals rather than by owners, and (2) it comprises multiple units or stages of production each of which could in principle have stood on its own as a separate organization. The last characteristic is really the essential one. In the large corporation, management supersedes the price system as a method of coordinating stages of production. p. 8

It is therefore within the bureaucracies character not to listen to markets. When natural gas prices hit $2.15 it is just to ignore these signals and keep producing. That’s the solution. That Deer in the headlights look about the earnings is intended to solicit sympathy. It is Professor Langlois thesis that the Visible Hand of management is being replaced by the Vanishing Hand of the marketplace. I would suggest in oil and gas the transition hasn’t happened fast enough.

The question, then, is clear: why did managerial coordination supersede the price system? Why did “managerial capitalism” supersede “market capitalism” in many important sectors of the American economy beginning in the late nineteenth century? p. 9

In this next quote Professor Langlois percolates the entire essence of what is necessary for the oil and gas industry to grow and prosper. It is these elements that we have captured in the Research & Capabilities and Knowledge & Learning module of the Preliminary Specification.

Economic growth is fundamentally about the emergence of new economic opportunities. The problem of organization is that of bringing existing capabilities to bear on new opportunities or of creating the necessary new capabilities. Thus, one of the principal determinants of the observed form of organization is the character of the opportunity – the innovation – involved. The second critical factor is the existing structure of relevant capabilities, including both the substantive content of those capabilities and the organizational structure under which they are deployed in the economy. p. 13

It seems so simple now. When an earth scientist or engineer can deploy a capability with the ease of calling a play, as in our football analogy, to the opportunity that has presented itself. Economic growth is the result. Having a listing of the capabilities that are available from the participating producers of the Joint Operating Committee. Accessible within the Knowledge & Learning module provides for its own economic opportunity. Seeing that producer x has developed a new capability to conduct y operation may motivate that Joint Operating Committee to deploy the capability and enhance its production.

If we go back to the previous modules we recall the discussion around moving from the “high throughput production” model to the “decentralized production” model that is being conducted in the Preliminary Specification. Essentially the “decentralized production” model has all of the production and overhead costs matching revenues. So when production was shut-in, there would be no production, administration or overhead costs associated with those shut-in properties.

The current “high throughput production” model has the overhead costs of the producer as fixed. These costs remain fixed despite the volume of production and are difficult to adjust to any change in the underlying business. The “high throughput production” model is something that the bureaucracy can do. It was their means of managing and is how they were capable of providing value in the organization. That the “high throughput production” is incapable of providing value today is a matter of the time and place that we find ourselves in. Using the “high throughput production” model requires the bureaucracy to summarily ignore the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the oil and gas industry. It can not do both, “high throughput production” requires the designation of operatorship be granted to one partner for control over the property.

Industrial structure is really about two interrelated but conceptually distinct systems: the technology of production and the organizational structure that directs production. These systems jointly must solve the problem of value: how to deliver the most utility to ultimate consumers at the lowest cost. Industrial structure is an evolutionary design problem. It is also a continually changing problem, one continually posed in new ways by factors like population, real income, and the changing technology of production and transaction. It was one of the founding insights of transaction-cost economics that the technological system does not fully determine the organizational system (Williamson 1975). Organizations — governance structures — bring with them their own costs, which need to be taken into account. But technology clearly affects organization. This is essentially Chandler’s claim. The large-scale, high-throughput technology of the nineteenth century “required” vertical integration and conscious managerial attention. In order to explicate this claim, we need to explore the nature of the evolutionary design problem that industrial structure must solve. p. 50

With the Preliminary Specifications adoption of the “decentralized production” model and the recognition of, and technical support of the Joint Operating Committee. The elements of change are in place. It is the culture of the industry to use the Joint Operating Committee, it is an industry that is based on partnerships and the closer we move to that culture the greater alignment (speed, innovation, accountability and profitability) we will achieve. This next quote should be read twice with either the hierarchy or the Joint Operating Committee in mind.

And there are certainly examples of this. But it is also possible that a structure of organization can persist because of “path dependence.” A structure can be self-reinforcing in ways that make it difficult to switch to other structures. For example, the nature of learning within a vertically integrated structure may reinforce integration, since learning about how to make that structure work may be favored over learning about alternative structures. A structure may also persist simply because the environment in which it operates is not rigorous enough to demand change. And organizations can sometimes influence their environments — by soliciting government regulation, for instance — in ways that reduce competitive rigors. p. 58

This discussion elevates the importance of the Research & Capabilities and Knowledge & Learning modules in defining how the industry operates. These modules remove the task of how the industry is operated from the hands of the bureaucracy and moves the operations to the Joint Operating Committee. It is therefore a critical module.

Over time, two things happen: (a) markets get thicker and (b) the urgency of buffering levels off and then begins to decline. In part, urgency of buffering declines because technological change begins to lower the minimum efficient scale of production. But it also declines because improvements in coordination technology — whether applied within a firm or across firms — lower the cost (and therefore the urgency) of buffering. p. 78

The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Operational Control and Freewheeling Markets

A recent McKinsey Newsletter begins with “In a world of unprecedented volatility, the unprepared will be sorely tested.” Lets hope that no oil and gas firms are caught unprepared without an innovative oil and gas ERP system like People, Ideas & Objects. As we enter the era of insatiable demand for energy. With a fixed earth science and engineering resource base, reorganization through specialization and the division of labor is the only manner in which we can approach the situation at hand. “Unprecedented volatility” will provide remarkable opportunities for those that are users of the People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification. I believe it will be necessary to not only own the oil and gas asset, but to also have access to the software that makes the oil and gas asset profitable. Such are the times that we find ourselves in.

In his paper “Innovation Process and Industrial Districts” Professor Richard Langlois discusses Industrial Districts (ID’s). Which are small geographically located groups of vendors that work together to produce products and services. They are for all intents and purposes the same as what we have been describing as the service industry or marketplace that a Joint Operating Committee would access during an operation in the field.

As we have shown, much of the attractiveness of compact, highly-localized areas of production results from their ability to reduce search costs, but this is accompanied by the risk that the knowledge available in any given district may be substandard. But new information and communications technology (ICT), may make it possible for firms to draw more cheaply and effectively on diverse sources of knowledge and therefore to increase their access to innovative ideas (as well as their ability to market their own innovations if they wish) (Langlois, 2003; Christensen, 2006). This may not undermine all aspects of the operations of IDs because differentiation and specialization retain their importance, and proximity is useful in just-in-time and other lean ways of organizing production. For innovation, however, an ability to tap wider sources of knowledge quickly and cheaply can reasonably be expected to allow firms all along supply chains to consult more broadly than in the past. Improvements in ICT and new search techniques, many of them associated in one way or another with the Internet, not only increase access to knowledge but may force innovation on firms that in the past could shelter in IDs. Because their customers can be better informed, firms in IDs need to keep up to date in order to maintain competitiveness. p. 20

In the previous quote the customer is the Joint Operating Committee. The expectation through the Research & Capabilities and Knowledge & Learning modules is that the marketplace or ID’s will be state of the art in terms of their capabilities. And that may not be the case, and most probably will not be the case. There are a lot of international firms that operate within the service industry. And these form the foundations of what these ID’s are. But in most cases the firms are local and to assume that they are able to organize themselves in a manner that will optimize the Joint Operating Committees needs is possibly incorrect.

Here again, I think the problem is one of conceptual imprecision. It is perfectly common, and often unobjectionable, to contrast a market and an organization, that is, to contrast the institution called a market and the institution called an organization (such as, notably, a firm). But the opposite of “organization” in the abstract sense is not “market” but disorganization. More helpfully, the opposite of conscious organization is unplanned or spontaneous coordination. In this sense the market-organization spectrum (and similar spectra one could imagine) are arguably orthogonal to the planned-spontaneous spectrum. One could well wonder, as I have (Langlois 1995), whether large organizations do not in fact grow far more as the unplanned consequence of many individual decisions than as the result of the conscious planning of any individual or small group of individuals. And it is certainly the case that, as Alfred Marshall understood, both firms and markets “are structures for promoting the growth of knowledge, and both require conscious organization” (Loasby 1990, p. 120).

Expecting the service industry to provide the Joint Operating Committee with “conscious organization” of disparate firms and organizations is wrong from the point of view of operational control. The Knowledge & Learning “Planning & Deployment Interface” use of the Military Command & Control, AFE, and Job Order systems provides the means in which to put some organization within the ID. And in turn provides the Joint Operating Committee with...

Charles Sabel and his collaborators have begun looking into the nature of the relationships that characterize the New Economy (Gilson, Sabel and Scott 2008; Jennejohn 2007; Sabel and Zeitlin 2004). And what they find is not common ownership or hierarchy but rather a “form of contracting [that] supports iterative collaboration between firms by interweaving explicit and implicit terms that respond to the uncertainty inherent in the innovation process” (Gilson, Sabel and Scott 2008, p. 3). The New Economy may be highly organized. But it is fundamentally contractual, in a way that large Chandlerian multi-unit enterprises are not. These latter, properly understood, are indeed fading away in a world of extensive, capable, diversified markets.

We are discussing the coordination of the markets or the service industry during a field operation. How it is up to the Joint Operating Committee to organize the markets to ensure the performance they desire is attained. We want to discuss the changes in the roles and responsibilities within those markets and the Joint Operating Committee itself. How those changes come about and the manner in which they are implemented within the JOC. Specifically how innovation is introduced into the field operation through further specialization and the division of labor. The Knowledge & Learning module of the Preliminary Specification uses the Military Command & Control Metaphor (MCCM) to coordinate the markets, it will also show the “gaps” that need to be filled with new innovative positions.

As Harvey Leibenstein long ago pointed out, economic growth is always a process of “gap-filling,” that is, of supplying the missing links in the evolving chain of complementary inputs to production. Especially in a developed and well functioning economy, one with what I like to call market-supporting institutions (Langlois 2003), such gap-filling can often proceed in important part through the “spontaneous” action of more-or-less anonymous markets. In other times and places, notably in less-developed economies or in sectors of developed economies undergoing systemic change, gap-filling requires other forms of organization — more internalized and centrally coordinated forms. p. 6

In each of the marketplace modules (the Resource, Petroleum Lease, Financial) there is a “Gap Filling” interface. These are for the purposes of identifying and publishing “gaps” in the markets offerings, and, publishing of ideas as to where “gaps” exist within the producer firm and Joint Operating Committees. Each of the “Gap Filling” interfaces is essentially the same interface and that interface can be viewed to determine its effect on the current Joint Operating Committee. Once these “Gaps” are filled by the market participants they need to populate the MCCM and be assigned the roles and responsibilities within the chain of command for the field operation. This is a manual and deliberate process, it is not spontaneous as we might think that it is. It is as Professor Langlois stated in the previous quote “or in sectors of developed economies undergoing systemic change, gap-filling requires other forms of organization -- more internalized and centrally coordinated forms.”

The underlying assumption, normally unspoken, is that relevant background institutions — things like respect for private property, contract law, courts — are all in place. Whatever transaction costs then arise are thus the result of properties inherent in “the market” itself, not of inadequacies in background institutions. There is generally a tacit factual or historical assumption as well: that the relevant markets exist thickly or would come into existence instantaneously if called upon. p. 3

There is only one way in which the oil and gas industry is to become more productive. That is through specialization and the division of labor. Particularly in the earth science and engineering disciplines. People, Ideas & Objects have approached the issue of the insatiable demand for energy and the somewhat constrained resource base of earth sciences and engineers through specialization and the division of labor. To approach this issue without the use of software in this day and age would be the same as using tools from the stone age. The effect of pooling the technical resources of the participants in the Joint Operating Committee is the beginning of the specialization and division of labor necessary to expand the industry's overall output.

Let’s take a closer look at the nature of the “gaps” involved. Adam Smith tells us in the first sentence of The Wealth of Nations that what accounts for “the greatest improvement in the productive power of labour” is the continual subdivision of that labor (Smith 1976, I.i.1). Growth in the extent of the market makes it economical to specialize labor to tasks and tools, which increases productivity – and productivity is the real wealth of nations. As the benefits of the resulting increases in per capita output find their way into the pockets of consumers, the extent of the market expands further, leading to additional division of labor – and so on in a self-reinforcing process of organizational change and learning (Richardson 1975; Young 1928). p. 7

Knowledge & Learning is the name of the module. Although it seems to be pursuing conflicting goals of operational excellence and innovativeness at the same time. There is a time element where the operational control fixes all of the variables and locks them down. That is a time when the operation is conducted for its efficiency. Other times and in other ways the module remains open and flexible to change to allow for the second major process of innovation within the People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification to occur.

But even in “developed” economies, novelty and change creates the sorts of gaps that call for business groups, including less-formal sets of “intermediate” relationships, as, for example, in geographic (or, increasingly, “virtual”) industrial districts. In this sense, the economics of organization generally can learn from the literature on business groups outside the developed world. The problem of gap-filling in highly developed economies differs from that in less-developed economies because the path ahead is cloudier, which suggests that more-decentralized organizational structures may be more successful at the cutting-edge of technology. p. 29

The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.

Two Major Processes of Innovation

We turn now to the topic of innovation with Professor Richard Langlois paper “Innovation Process and Industrial Districts." There are two primary processes of innovation within the Preliminary Specification. One is within the Research & Capabilities module and the other is here in the Knowledge & Learning module. Each process works in different ways to capture innovation in a manner that is effective and efficient for both the producer firms and the Joint Operating Committee.

Innovation is based on the generation, diffusion, and use of new knowledge. p. 1

In the Research & Capabilities module innovation is developed through the research and application of earth science and engineering to the assets of the firm. These innovations are then developed fully to ensure that they are proven capabilities in which the firm can deploy. Then they are listed in the “Dynamic Capabilities Interface” in which they are deployed to the pertinent Joint Operating Committees of the firm to use. This process is to ensure that none of the testing or development of the innovation is repeated in each and every one of the Joint Operating Committees, only proven and fully tested capabilities are included in the interface.

While it is possible to conceive of a firm that is so hermetic in its use of knowledge that all stages of innovation, including the combination of old and new knowledge, rely exclusively on internal sources, in practice most innovations involving products or processes of even modest complexity entail combining knowledge that derives, directly or indirectly, from several sources. Knowledge generation, therefore, must be accompanied by effective mechanisms for knowledge diffusion and for "indigenizing" knowledge originally developed in other contexts and for other purposes so that it meets a new need. p. 1

The second major process of innovation is contained within the Knowledge & Learning module of the Preliminary Specification. It is a hands on, ad-hoc type of innovation that is as a result of the new knowledge that is expected in the marketplace. Even with the tight operational control that we have established in the Knowledge & Learning module. It is possible and advantageous to have high levels of innovation occur. With a strong command and control environment the ability to get an operational command decision to implement some new tool, or procedure is easily attainable. It’s not like someone has to wander around looking for someone who might have authority to implement a new idea. With the Military Command & Control Metaphor and the Job Order System it will be obvious who has the appropriate authority and responsibility in terms of making the decision to implement a new innovation.

Once these new innovations have been implemented in the Knowledge & Learning module it is important to be able to assess their impact on the operation. Updates to the “Lessons Learned” interface will be necessary. This will ensure that the firm whose capability it was that was used for the operation is informed of the updated innovation and their results, so that they may update the information for their capability in their “Dynamic Capability Interface."

The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.