We continue our discussion on the forces of change in the
Knowledge & Learning module. We pick up the discussion around the topics of inertia and equilibrium and how they are managed in the Preliminary Specification. To achieve higher levels of economic performance we know that it requires a reorganization of the resources of both the service and oil & gas industries. Our problem comes about as a result of the fact that our society is very advanced and the ability to increase our performance needs to have the necessary software in place first. Without the software in place no change will take place and no improvement in performance will occur. The bureaucracy in the oil and gas industry are aware of this and are using it to assure that their current positions are never challenged by ensuring they never change the software. This has made for a particularly difficult situation for the industry to advance.
Should there be the changes that are suggested in the Preliminary Specification? Should we continue with the SAP perception of what an oil and gas producer is? What is the vision of the oil and gas producer in the era of insatiable energy demand? These are questions best left for others to answer, all I can do is continue to offer the solutions based on the Joint Operating Committee. I would suggest that today’s topics of inertia and equilibrium can best be described in the industry as stagnant and disjointed. The quotations are from Professor Richard Langlois paper “Institutions, Inertia and Changing Industrial Leadership."
Several features of punctuated equilibrium stand out. Firstly, it is a lengthy process. Even the revolutionary or transitionary phase, in which two or more alternatives vie for success, may be prolonged for decades, or eons in the case of speciation. Secondly, the process, like Schumpeter's: creative destruction," is one of replacement. When there is punctuated equilibrium, the extinction of a species or discrediting of a scientific theory are not enough; there must be a new species available to take over the territory or a new theory to account for the phenomena that the old theory was once thought to explain. Thirdly, each period of punctuated change requires a behavioral shift to ensure alignment between the requirements of the new order and the actions of its agents. This shift might be accomplished internally, if the old agents adapt their behavior to meet the new conditions, or externally if they are supplanted by a new group of agents. Finally, inertia plays a central role in punctuated equilibrium by ensuring that change proceeds by fits and starts rather than smoothly and evenly. pp. 2 - 3
The Preliminary Specification provides for the second item in this quote of “there must be a new species available to take over the territory or a new theory to account." And it also provides a vision for the third item in the Langlois’ quote of “a behavioral shift to ensure alignment between the requirements of the new order and the actions of its agents.” As we noted how the service providers and service industry representatives would be motivated to form new and innovative service offerings to their producer clients and the Joint Operating Committees. So with these we would be well on our way to making the transition to the environment that is described in the Preliminary Specification, despite the actions of the bureaucracy.
I am also operating from two fundamental assumptions that lead me to come to the conclusion that these changes will take. That the stuffing of another ream of paper in the printer is how the system is fed in the oil and gas industry today. That is, the ERP systems that operate today are woefully inadequate for the needs in the era of insatiable energy demand in which we are about to find ourselves in. These systems have no future. And that high levels of cognitive dissonance occurs when people read the Preliminary Specification. That is to say it resonates with their understanding of what an oil and gas system should be, and they desire it.
Inertia is the focus of this paper. As is explained in more detail below, inertia has two major functions in the cycle of punctuated equilibrium. Inertia result from, and in a sense embodies, the best feature of the stable phase of the cycle because it is based on the learning process in which producers determine which procedures are most efficient and effective. Once people are satisfied that they know how to do things well, they have very little incentive to look for or adopt new methods. In the words of Tushman and Romanelli (1985, pp. 197, 205), "those same social and structural factors which are associated with effective performance are also the foundations of organizational inertia..., success sows the seeds of extraordinary resistance to fundamental change." Inertia also provides the tension, however, that leads to the (relatively) short, sharp shock of the revolutionary period (Gould, 1983, p. 153) because the pressure required to displace a successful but inert system is considerable and takes time to accumulate. When there is little inertia, change can be assimilated in a gradual and orderly fashion, but an entrenched system may need to be vigorously displaced. p. 3
I know that the bureaucracy needs to be vigorously displaced, however the inertia to change will be strong to replace the stagnant and inert systems that so poorly serve the needs of the people, producers, Joint Operating Committees, service industry participants and society in general. And this is represented in our value proposition which provides evidence of $94 billion in incremental revenues and profits for the 2012 calendar year. Similar opportunity costs would be available at any time that the bureaucracy is in place. Continued operations in the face of such value destruction sets the stage for a “vigorous displacement.”
They, the bureaucracy, have effectively mismanaged the natural gas business in North America. The Deer in the headlights response to the natural gas prices shows that the level of “inertia” in the oil and gas industry is strong. It is to muddle along. Take what is given and survive for another day. Is this the appropriate footing for the innovative oil and gas producer in the era of insatiable energy demand? With rapid depletion of the natural gas reserves there has to be a better way. And that is the
decentralized production model of the Preliminary Specification. Quotes are from Professor Richard Langlois paper “Institutions, Inertia and Changing Industrial Leadership."
Here we concentrate on explaining the part played by inertia in causing economic displacement. We argue that inertia is often a rational response for firms or governments even after an important innovation becomes available, and that changes in economic leadership, whether on the level of the firm or the nation, may be inevitable when there is significant innovation. p. 4
and
Here, we concentrate on the influence of institutional variables on inertia. Institutions may either retard or encourage innovation. If the institutional structure is unsuited to a new technology and inert, change will be difficult to implement. When existing institutions are flexible or well adapted to the requirements of an innovation, however, change will be accomplished relatively easily. p. 5
Now is the time to retire the bureaucracies to their permanent Florida vacation. They have forcefully resisted People, Ideas & Objects at every opportunity. I don’t see any opportunity for cooperation, nor do I see any need for their cooperation. This can be done by the people who make the industry work. The entrepreneurs, the movers and shakers and the people who know there is a better way. The alternative is as Professor Langlois states a slow and painful atrophy.
And institutional change, we argue, can often take place through the more or less slow dying out of obsolete institutions in a population and their replacement by better-adapted institutions - rather than by the conscious adaptation of existing institutions in the face of change. p. 6
Change from the status quo bureaucracies is seen as difficult and troublesome. How that transition occurs is through two possible alternatives. One the existing producers can atrophy and die a slow and painful death. Or alternatively, the decision can be made to build the Preliminary Specification and move to the Joint Operating Committee as the innovative construct of the oil and gas industry. If only it was that easy. The decision to make the change is the appropriate choice to make, however there are other considerations that need to be made.
One of those considerations is the inertia that exists within the current institutions. Many of the producers have been developed through an era of low energy prices where the survival skills were needed. Innovation was not something that was rewarded and as such did not exist. Now that we are within reach of the era of insatiable energy demand, the need for innovation is the key and that must become the culture of the firm. Therefore in the Knowledge & Learning and other modules of the Preliminary Specification, whether it is by atrophy or by decision, the development of the innovative culture and the Preliminary Specification will always be an “outside” of the mainstream kind of development.
Another aspect of capabilities that has recently received a great deal of attention is organizational culture. In practice, not all organizations may be equally able to cope with change, as existing patterns of behaviour involving both executives and subordinates may be resistant to change. Organizations develop collective habits or ways of thinking that can be altered only gradually. To the extent that a given culture is either flexible or consistent with a proposed change in product or process technology, the transition to the new regime will be relatively easy. If, however, the culture is incompatible with the needs posed by the change and is inflexible, the viability of the change will be threatened (Robertson, 1990; Langlois 1991; Camerer and Vepsalainen, 1988). p. 9
After all we are not talking about minor changes to the floor plan for accounting. We are exercising wholesale changes to the oil and gas industry by adopting the Preliminary Specification, and fully utilizing the Joint Operating Committee. Change that is as significant as that which is represented by the change in energy prices and the global demand structure we face. This will not be done successfully in a fashion that smooths over the rough edges.
Teece... fails to note that the inflexibility, or inertia, induced by routines and the capabilities that they generate can raise to prohibitive levels the cost of adopting a new technology or entering new fields. Such inertia can develop to the extent that existing rules are both hard to discard and inconsistent with types of change that might otherwise be profitable. p. 10
Creative destruction has such a profound ring to it. It's times like these that we see the scope of change and the need for change clashing with the desire for change. Some might look back and say that the North American gas business refused to change, and as a result change was forced upon it.
Whereas major competence enhancing innovations may, in time, be assimilated, the creation of entirely new organizations may be needed to deal with innovations that undermine the capabilities or competencies of existing firms. p. 11
It is as I have suggested that People, Ideas & Objects will be there one way or the other.
The
Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most
profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects
Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me
here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.