The Issues With Natural Gas Storage Part I
How much of today’s natural gas price decline is attributable to the record storage volumes. In the past, to aid in deliverability of natural gas during peak demand, producers invested in storage to aid in the delivery of natural gas. This was to offset the risk of not being able to meet the demand for natural gas on those cold winter days. With so much electricity being generated by natural gas, shortages would lead to critical electrical energy shortages. In the beginning, and with the cyclical nature of natural gas, producers found that natural gas storage was a good business to be in. Buy the product in the summer at low prices and sell it during peak demand in the winter at higher prices. Soon thereafter there was a boom in building natural gas storage facilities. And with all booms the inevitable fallout in terms of the potential earnings. The producers, who were the initial investors eventually sold their interests in the natural gas storage facilities to what become a new sub-industry of providers, the natural gas storage providers. Today we live with the legacy of these transactions. And I think the natural gas storage issues are the real source of the natural gas pricing issues. The first step to correct this is for the producers to be able to shut-in their marginal production, and the second is for the producer's to take indirect control over the natural gas storage marketplace.
In order for the innovative oil and gas producer to take the first step as described above. They would need to subscribe to People, Ideas & Objects and build the Preliminary Specification. It is within the Preliminary Specification that we enable all producers to use what is called the “decentralized production” model and discard the “high throughput production” model that is currently used. The decentralized production model is defined by Professor Richard Langlois in his book The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism as.
In a world of decentralized production, most costs are variable costs; so, when variations or interruptions in product flow interfere with output, costs decline more or less in line with revenues. But when high-throughput production is accomplished by means of high-fixed-cost machinery and organization, variations and interruptions leave significant overheads uncovered. p. 58
What the Preliminary Specification does is move the production and overhead costs from the producer firm to the Joint Operating Committees. This then provides the opportunity to reorganize these tasks and processes, and focus them on their specialization and division of labor across the industry. So that production accounting, royalty accounting, and lease rentals etc can be focused on the most efficient and effective process and be billed directly to the Joint Operating Committee for the fees for these services. Where production accounting is focused on the specific region for the gas plant. Or royalty accounting is specialized on the unique characteristics of one royalty jurisdiction. Or the lease rental process is the most efficient and effective due to its scale and scope across the industry. How this then affects the decentralized production model is that during times of shut-in production, due to low natural gas prices, because these charges are billed directly to the Joint Operating Committee, the costs of production and royalty accounting are not incurred or billed to the joint account. Achieving the decentralized production models objective of making most costs variable and only the costs of capital uncovered during times when production was marginal and shut-in.
If all of the innovative oil and gas producers were able to take the marginal production off of the marketplace by following the decentralized production model in the Preliminary Specification. Then they would have completed the first step in obtaining control of the natural gas prices. But this will not be enough until they deal with the inventory in storage and that will be the topic of tomorrow's post. This first step is critical in the prolific era of shale technologies. With the ability to flood the marketplace with oil or gas with high deliverability fields. The need to invoke production discipline across the industry is a must. The marginal cost must become the floor at which any and all fields can be sold at. Selling below the marginal cost must become culturally unacceptable in the innovative oil and gas industry.
The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas investor with the business model for profitable exploration and production. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.