Alberta's Premier Alison Redford
Last night residents of Alberta were provided with an update from Premier Alison Redford on the upcoming April 1, 2013 provincial budget. Apparently an oil pricing situation in the province has become an issue to the government in terms of their ability to balance the books. And they announced that they may now be projecting a deficit of $3 billion Canadian for 2014. (The Alberta Government owns the majority of the mineral rights in the province on behalf of the Alberta residents.) This is news for a province that has traditionally been conservative in their spending and have run surpluses and have a variety of savings accounts that total at least $20 billion.
The issue apparently comes about as a result of the differential that the producers are receiving on their oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down to the low $90 range from what the Alberta Government projected of the low $100 range. Which is not material, however, since September 2012 the differential on Alberta production has grown to upwards of $40 so that producers are only receiving $50 for their oil production. This is as a result of the markets in the U.S. being satisfied with other imports and internal production and an inability to get the Canadian production out of the province.
We are all familiar with the Keystone XL pipeline issues and the delays in the approval by the Obama administration. Having this pipeline to the states would alleviate the problem and ensure that the producers received the WTI prices less the tariff for the Keystone XL pipeline. But I am not so certain that President Obama will approve the pipeline now that he has been re-elected. It was delayed on the belief that if he was re-elected that he would then approve it because he would not have to deal with his left wing base. I think he didn’t approve because he fundamentally doesn’t agree with the oil sands and will ensure that that oil doesn’t make it to the Gulf coast.
Irrespective of the situation in the states, the Canadian producers should never have put themselves in this situation. They learned in the mid-1990’s that take-away capacity in the natural gas business was what was required to increase the pricing for natural gas. When they built the Alliance pipeline this provided much relief to a congested production market. That same congestion is happening again in the oil markets on a much larger scale. They should have begun dealing with this situation earlier by attempting to get the Keystone XL built earlier, and, building pipelines to the west coast for markets in the far east. Hindsight is 20/20 however they have been advertising they have the second highest reserves of oil in the world. Is that their sole responsibility is the production end of the business?
We see with the recent termination of Mr. Randy Eresman, CEO of Encana Resources that he a) didn’t have the fight in him, and b) felt that the capital markets demand too much in the short term. This short term thinking is very prevalent that is for certain. Nothing focuses the mind like the quarterly demands for performance. But that does not preclude you from making sure that the long term perspective of the firm is taken care of as well. No one is excusing you from leaving the long term perspective alone. It must be taken care of as well. And that is something that the Canadian producers, as a whole, have let slide for so long it has become culturally ingrained throughout their part of the industry that no one concerns themselves with the long term. So projects like People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification will, as it stands today, probably not have a Canadian component to it.
If the province is experiencing such a large hole in their financing I can only imagine what the Canadian producers are experiencing. The Premier said if the differentials continued it might cost the province $6 billion. Losing half of the revenue on any oil production for the oil and gas producers would most certainly put them into a loss situation. And the total loss in revenue could be in the tens of billions. More than enough to finance the development of People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification from just the interest on those losses.