The Preliminary Specification Part CXIX (AV Part XI)
One area that has been difficult for the oil and gas producer to deal with is the volatile energy prices. With the costs of production and reserve replacement increasing and the reserve depletion on such a rapid pace, the decline in energy prices can have a material effect on the value captured from a field. With every producer producing at capacity, this risk of price declines comes into play more frequently then maybe needs to be realized. This blog post asks the question, what if, there was agreement in the Petroleum Lease Marketplace and implementation in the Accounting Vouchers Material Balance Report of the Preliminary Specification, to limit the production at certain thresholds based on predetermined commodity prices?
We can accurately tell what the costs of reserves and production costs are and there are many times when these exceed the prices that are received in the marketplace. The North American natural gas marketplace is a very good example of this situation. Selling at a loss may fuel the short term cash flow situation however, it as at the long term expense of reserve replacements. In a highly innovative oil and gas marketplace, the costs of innovation are being funded by the commodity prices. However, these costs may exceed the temporary fluctuations in the market prices for the commodities. Is it wise for the producer to continue to produce at capacity?
What if the agreement that governs the Joint Operating Committee has the partnership agreeing to a reduction of production by 15% when the price of the commodity drops below x value. And what if the agreement also reduces the production by 25% when the production prices drop below y value. These situations would help to mitigate the loss of earnings on the reserves and not materially affect the cash flow of the operation. The global implications of many producers implementing this type of price based production profile would put a floor on the commodity prices. A floor based on the marginal costs of reserve replacement.
The implementation of the production decreases would be triggered in the Petroleum Lease Marketplace and signaled to the Material Balance Report. One area that we have not yet discussed in detail is the field data capture that is implicit in the Material Balance Report. This signal from the Petroleum Lease Marketplace module would then choke back the production to the 85% threshold when the prices realized are below the level set in the trigger.
Selling at a loss is a fools game. The political issues surrounding the choking back of production are something that might make some wince. However, the reality is that the costs of production and reserve replacement are escalating and the volatility in the commodity prices only seems to becoming more prevalent. With shale gas costs in North America being as high as they are, who would contemplate producing at these prices? In many ways we are our own worst enemies.
This scenario of price driven production adjustments will be part of the Preliminary Specification. If producers decide to use it, it will be there choice. I think it is necessary with the situation in the energy market that the producer has some protection of their investment from the volatility and political influences of the commodity marketplace.
For the industry to successfully provide for the consumers energy demands, it’s necessary to build the systems that identify and support the Joint Operating Committee. Building the Preliminary Specification is the focus of People, Ideas & Objects. Producers are encouraged to contact me in order to support our Revenue Model and begin their participation in these communities. Those individuals that are interested in joining People, Ideas & Objects can join me here and begin building the software necessary for the successful and innovative oil and gas industry.
Please note what Google+ provides us is the opportunity to prove that People, Ideas & Objects are committed to developing this community. That this is user developed software, not change that is driven from the top down. Join me on the People, Ideas & Objects Google+ Circle and begin building the community for the development of the Preliminary Specification.