Langlois' Comment on Technology Revol...
My 2003 paper and subsequent efforts (Langlois 2004, 2007) did not make the claim that Chandler’s visible hand has been fading away. Rather, I took this phenomenon as a widely agreed-upon starting point. The last few decades have witnessed a widespread “deverticalization” of production in the United States and other advanced economies. My objective was to explain the phenomenon, which I attempted to do not by rejecting Alfred Chandler’s original account of the rise of the large vertically integrated corporation in the late nineteenth century but rather by showing how Chandler’s account might be fitted into a larger framework that could admit of forces both for vertical integration and for disintegration. (I will say a bit more presently about the nature of this explanation.)Langlois states the two issues he has with the points made by Dosi et al. For the purposes of this post we will ignore the first issue.
Thus there seem to be two issues: (1) what is the nature of the empirical evidence against the phenomenon of deverticalization? And (2) does the New Economy (however we understand that) imply less — or more — “organization” within the process of production? I will take these points in order.I have consistently argued that oil and gas is in a transitional period in which substantial change will alter the makeup of the industry firms. The Draft Specification moves many of the operations within the industry to a greater market definition. In this post I want to describe my point of view regarding the survivability of the large oil and gas producer. Throughout corporate history firms evolve according to the changes in the marketplace. Our review of Chandler showed the one time that the hierarchy did fail was during the great depression. Professor Carlota Perez has also shown us that this is not a unique event, but one that has a consistent rhythm over the past 300 years. Professor Perez has defined these major transition periods as installment and deployment periods in which the transitional period in between them can lead to financial difficulties. We are experiencing those financial difficulties today which places us at a unique point in time in terms of economics. The changes currently taking place are 1) the financial crisis has not fully developed, and 2) we are at the very beginning of the deployment period, a time when the new technologies positively affect all industries.
The oil and gas firms that exist today are subject to the forces that are in play in the greater marketplace. People, Ideas & Objects is taking these forces and applying them to the industry in a manner that unleashes the full potential of Perez' deployment period. The oil and gas industry as represented by the large producers have chosen not to participate in People, Ideas & Objects and are therefore opting out of the deployment phase. I see this as a form or corporate self selection (suicide) by these large organizations. They have chosen not to participate and that is their decision. I believe they will be challenged by their inability to function, much like BP is in the Gulf of Mexico, and particularly when the full scope of the current debt crisis hits them. To summarize the challenges that I see them facing in the near future would include:
- Sourcing capital.
- Higher rates of interest on existing debt.
- Escalating cost structures.
- Stable commodity prices.
- Declining production.
- Greater scientific complexity.
- Negative political environments.
Here again, I think the problem is one of conceptual imprecision. It is perfectly common, and often unobjectionable, to contrast a market and an organization, that is, to contrast the institution called a market and the institution called an organization (such as, notably, a firm). But the opposite of “organization” in the abstract sense is not “market” but disorganization. More helpfully, the opposite of conscious organization is unplanned or spontaneous coordination. In this sense the market-organization spectrum (and similar spectra one could imagine) are arguably orthogonal to the planned-spontaneous spectrum. One could well wonder, as I have (Langlois 1995), whether large organizations do not in fact grow far more as the unplanned consequence of many individual decisions than as the result of the conscious planning of any individual or small group of individuals. And it is certainly the case that, as Alfred Marshall understood, both firms and markets “are structures for promoting the growth of knowledge, and both require conscious organization” (Loasby 1990, p. 120).For the large oil and gas firms to continue to ignore the difficulties in the industry will lead to further disorganization. The expectation that the market will spontaneously provide is an extension of the ways and means of managing the industry for the past 50 years. Muddling along, as I would refer to it, is the systemic culture of the current management. This culture needs to be broken by actively planning and organizing the market, as in People, Ideas & Objects Draft Specification, or face further disorganization by the firm.
People, Ideas & Objects software development identify and support the industry standard Joint Operating Committee (JOC). The legal, financial, operational decision making, cultural and communication frameworks of the oil and gas industry. The JOC is in essence a thing that is generated as a result of an agreement between multiple producers. The JOC is what is effectively used to conduct any and all types of field operations. Most of these field operations are conducted with third party suppliers. The contract is a natural extension of the oil and gas JOC and producer. Langlois notes;
Charles Sabel and his collaborators have begun looking into the nature of the relationships that characterize the New Economy (Gilson, Sabel and Scott 2008; Jennejohn 2007; Sabel and Zeitlin 2004). And what they find is not common ownership or hierarchy but rather a “form of contracting [that] supports iterative collaboration between firms by interweaving explicit and implicit terms that respond to the uncertainty inherent in the innovation process” (Gilson, Sabel and Scott 2008, p. 3). The New Economy may be highly organized. But it is fundamentally contractual, in a way that large Chandlerian multi-unit enterprises are not. These latter, properly understood, are indeed fading away in a world of extensive, capable, diversified markets.It is difficult to see how the current administrations within the large firms could change their culture and begin the active planning and development of Industrial Districts. I don't happen to believe that its possible. Change of that scope can only be introduced through revolutionary organizational restructuring. Such as what we propose in People, Ideas & Objects by defining and supporting the industry standard Joint Operating Committee. And the destructive forces of both the current debt crisis and management's laissez faire attitude. On Friday Nouriel Roubini made the following comment,"...the recent global financial crisis is not over; it has, instead, reached a new and more dangerous stage." reflecting the time for action will soon be at hand.
I see this transition as inevitable and one that will be orchestrated by the shareholder / investors taking action to protect their interests. Whether these are formed as small or large firms is unknown at this time, the Information Technologies enable a proliferation of smaller firms to be organized, and that seems the most reasonable way that the industry will re-organize itself. We have appealed to the investor / shareholder to support these software developments as that is the necessary precursor to any future form of the oil and gas industry.
Our appeal should be based on these eight "Focused on" priorities and values of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not initially be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are. If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.
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