Perez, Crisis and Innovation Part VI
In a number of previous posts we briefly discussed Professor Carlota Perez concept of the Small Knowledge Intensive Enterprises (SKIEs). How this concept captures the Community of Independent Service Providers that are critical to the success of the oil and gas producer and People, Ideas & Objects software developments. This post deals exclusively with the topic of SKIEs and therefore accurately details the problems that our communities face. Through out her writings Professor Perez has consistently argued the need for a different point of view. A point of view of how things need to be structured in order for the deployment phase to be realized. Whether that is realized through enhanced government or business involvement is unknown at this time. What is clear is that these problems are what we face in building this software and are unaddressed by the current bureaucracy.
My argument that the management in the industry has been overly critical of the service sector is also a part of this discussion. During the 2007 - 2008 period we heard management complain that service industry costs were escalating excessively. Some companies went as far as to state that the service providers were gouging their clients. This in an environment where the oil price was $147.00, whom was really getting greedy. In retrospect, I think that the majority of these cost increases are attributable to management's inability to see the increased effort per barrel of oil.
The other area that I would raise that is directly on point with Professor Perez' discussion. Is the fact that the energy producers collect 100% of the funds for the primary and secondary industries involved in oil and gas. This does not entitle them to hold these resources from the service industries when the times get difficult. Cutting back on field operations has consistently been damaging to the ability of the service industry to fulfill its supporting role. People have been unwilling to see the oil and gas industry as a steady employer. They also see it as a boom-bust cycle where the hours demanded are excessive and the boom cycles introduce inexperienced field personnel to dangerous situations. The oil and gas producer should analyse the damage that occurs as a result of their turning on and off the financial support for the service industry providers.
Another behavior of the oil and gas companies is the ostracizing of those with alternative ideas. I have proposed a common sense approach to resolving the issues I see in oil and gas. An approach that strikes directly at the heart of the bureaucracy and renders them redundant. I am surprised at the scope of the efforts that have aligned against me. As we move into a world of ideas it is important to remember that ideas have consequences. And those consequences are not necessarily positive for all concerned.
SKIEs, SMEs and networks
Today's discussion extends these well known behaviors of the oil and gas companies. And applies them on a pro-active basis based on the future demands of a dynamic and innovative oil and gas industry. I think much can be learned by Professor Perez research and her development of the SKIEs as a critical resource. I think this is an area where industry should take detailed notes.
In this first quotation it is important to note that People, Ideas & Objects assumes that the innovative oil and gas producer is concerned with their earth science and engineering capabilities. And these capabilities as they are directly applied to the producers asset base. The remainder of the functions that are currently handled by the firm and marketplace are moved substantially to the marketplace in the Draft Specification.
There are at least two major consequences of the fact that the global corporations and the large firms increasingly achieve flexibility and higher competitiveness by outsourcing a significant part of the peripheral and of the highly specialised (non-core) activities. This practice is bound to result in much greater proportions of (1) the working population receiving irregular incomes and (2) the part of the economy without a cushion to withstand downturns. These problems directly affect general economic policy and the social security model while they indirectly condition innovation policy. pp. 30 - 31The bureaucracy might argue then that they will provide for the field operations themselves. That all aspects of the field operations can be conducted by their company. In 2007 this strategy was also employed by some of the larger companies by buying drilling rigs of their own. It should be clear to anyone outside of the bureaucracies that these types of operations are destined to fail. Eventually the company would need to conduct their own research in drill bit manufacturing as a result of the entire secondary support industries leaving the energy industry. What Professor Perez brings to the table is a discussion based on the reality that the future will involve many smaller companies, not more bigger companies.
A much higher proportion of small units in the economy, taking care of a greater share of employment as well as of profits and national product, will require similar stabilising instruments to those discussed above and possibly new insurance schemes tailored to those special needs. p. 31When we discuss the dynamic capabilities of the oil and gas industry as a whole. We are talking about the intangible nature of the services that are provided. The oil and gas industry fully understands the intangible nature of the industry. Most if not all costs of drilling a well are intangible services or unrecoverable costs. The category of costs that this project is concerned about, the CISP and People, Ideas & Objects software development costs, are going to be added to the dynamic capabilities of the oil and gas industry. These costs, like those in the secondary industries, can not be turned on and off without serious degradation and long term damage to that capability.
With the exception of companies specialising in biotech or nanotech or special materials, which may need high precision equipment, the other high cost is usually also intangible. It is the specialised software and the information services that they need to acquire to perform their job. Not meeting any of those payments can mean losing irreplaceable personnel or cutting-off the lifeline services. p. 31The use of People, Ideas & Objects software application are free to the user communities and particularly the CISP. This however does not eliminate the argument that the producer firm will need to support the software development and cloud computing infrastructure on a go forward basis. With annual costs ranging in the $600 million to $1 billion for development and infrastructure, and several billion for the CISP, these costs are beyond what the industry has otherwise been willing to expend. However, it should be noted that the oil and gas producers are collecting over $3.5 trillion in annual revenues on oil and gas sales.
Innovative firms suffer from that problem in various ways. Specialised suppliers of Global Corporations (GCs) are expected to constantly do minor improvements and sometimes more significant ones. It can be that the user company is a partner in the innovation and jointly funds it with the supplier (it can also be a group of users) or that the supplier takes the initiative and seeks the funds. There are also suppliers whose speciality is to do development work i.e. they are innovators under contract. All those cases and many other situations can involve periods of no receipts at all (depending on the funding or contract arrangements) and also the risk of unpredictable delays. Of course, SKIEs are high profit companies and under normal circumstances would have reserves for these situations. But new forms of insurance and running lines of credit will need to appear as the number of companies with these characteristics grows. pp. 31 - 32Much of these costs may currently be hidden in the services that are provided by employees in oil and gas companies. Employees that in this very near future will be deemed not core to the producers capabilities and asset base. And therefore become active members of the CISP.
It might be interesting to look at the network as the possible route to solving many of these new (or intensified) needs of small companies. There is already a tendency of similar companies to flock together to gain advantages of scale for certain activities that can be funded jointly such as training courses, international marketing, specialised software development, etc. The idea of collective insurance of groups of companies –in a sector or in a region– or even networks of networks, in order to increase the volume and reduce the risk premium could be an adequate direction to explore. p. 32Our appeal should be based on these eight "Focused on" priorities and values of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not initially be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are. If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.
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