Perez, Crisis and Innovation Part II
People, Ideas & Objects is about developing software that identifies and supports the energy industries standard Joint Operating Committee (JOC). The purpose in developing this software is to create the ways and means for the oil and gas producer to facilitate innovation in the expanding earth science and engineering disciplines. We are not about the latest version of Oracle's impressive database or some other technology. That is Oracle's business and we will implement these technologies in our software offering in innovative ways. The technology is not the critical element. We don't see significant levels of innovation being generated in the technology itself, they are mature and are not critical to the producers innovation. The innovation we are seeking is in the organizational methods that identify and support iterative development of the earth science and engineering capabilities of the producer firms and markets.
Installation and Deployment: different drivers of innovation
This difference between innovating on the Information Technologies and innovation in the producer firms is an important clarification of what we are doing. What I had not fully realized until reading Professor Carlota Perez' February 2010 paper is the clear distinction between the two types of innovation in the Information Technology & Communications Revolution (ICTR). With the two major phases of each "great surge of development" the "Installation Period" and the "Deployment Period", bring about two distinct types of innovation in the marketplace. Professor Perez notes;
Distinguishing between innovation in the core new industries themselves and in the industries or activities that apply the new technologies to innovate is important for understanding the main differences between Installation and Deployment as regards the rhythm and direction of technical change. p. 8That we are innovating in "the industries or activities that apply the new technologies to innovate" is proof that we are in the deployment phase. This deployment phase is what Professor Perez compares to other golden ages and calls the "Sustainable global knowledge-society". A time when IT applied to traditional industries brings about the value creating activities that will sustain the globalized economy. Professor Perez contrasts the two periods.
The high and growing valuations of telecom and Internet-related companies during the NASDAQ bubble facilitated the completion of a global fibre optic network that has become the foundation of the globalisation process. p. 8and
The deployment period is the time when the modernised companies across all sectors innovate using the power of the technologies of the revolution and of the new –by then, established– paradigm. It is a time of expansion, extension and multiplication of possibilities in the whole spectrum; it is also a time for social innovation in order to spread more widely across society the benefits of the vast wealth creating potential. p. 9We have always considered, since the Preliminary Research Report, that high energy prices are the reallocation of the financial resources towards innovation. The investments in innovation by the oil and gas producers are not to be made through debt or equity or earnings but through the allocation of revenues to the appropriate areas. This reflects the high costs of innovation and the need to build capabilities within the producer firm and marketplace. Of note People, Ideas & Objects have developed a new classification of oil and gas workers that we call the Community of Independent Service Providers (CISP). These people are the critical resources that provide People, Ideas & Objects with the direction of our software developments. They are the ones that anticipate the needs of the producer firms they represent, and work with our developers to build the tools needed to support the user communities involved in oil and gas. It is the revenues of the producers that will go toward development of the capabilities within the producer firms, markets, the CISP and these software developments.
In sum, there is a changing of the innovation guard with the Turning Point. During Installation the innovation drivers are the new technological entrepreneurs and the financiers while the State has a service and facilitating role with a laissez faire attitude. During Deployment, the State comes back actively and serves as innovation driver together with production capital, which takes the helm of investment while financial capital serves as support. p. 9I read "production capital" as the reallocation of the oil and gas revenues to the service industries to support the producers innovations. These are predominately service based businesses that provide a supporting role to the producers. "Production capital" denotes somewhat of an investment, whereas I see a long term relationship between the producers, their markets and communities. This restructuring of the oil and gas industry does not provide those, producers or otherwise, that may have invested "production capital" with any return. The continued expectation that the oil and gas industry will become innovative by the service industries investments and developments of technologies is fool-hardy. It may be debated whether that expectation is fool-hardy or not, but I can assure you that it is ridiculous when it is considered the oil and gas producers generate the entire revenue base of the producers, markets, service industry, CISP and People, Ideas & Objects. Continually squeezing the service industries for more has as much to do with the failure of the bureaucracies that control these financial flows, as the need for real reform in this area. I see the producers themselves spending this "production capital" on these markets and communities to support their own capabilities. Professor Perez has much more to say on this point later in this paper. We will revisit this point at that time.
The other process typical of the aftermath of technology bubbles that was already taking place during the second boom is the restructuring of one industry after another and the definition of new boundaries through mergers and acquisitions. p. 11These changes in the industry structure underlay the revised focus on the demand for energy.
As will be discussed below, though, the hyper-segmentation of markets and the flexibility of ICT is likely to change the way of defining industries and the markets in which they compete, in order to focus on the demand sectors rather than on the supply ones. p. 11If we are looking at this deployment period lasting another thirty years, re-structuring of the industry in some fashion to deal with these issues is necessary. And as I have noted in each of these posts, we will work with the producers and communities to determine which methods are the right ones and build the software on that basis. Professor Perez notes that these are consistent with the history she has studied.
Such sectoral redefinitions have occurred with every paradigm shift and the trace is kept –with delay– in the changes of statistical categories across history. Since such changes take time and occur as a result of trial and error strategies and competition, they can only be recognized in the statistics when they have already become the norm in practice. But being alert to these processes is crucial both for companies and for governments, because they provide important signals for innovation and growth paths. p. 11and
But with Deployment comes a fundamental shift of focus. Rather than looking at the potential of technologies, the focus switches to the opportunities defined by markets and by growth possibilities. p. 11Our appeal should be based on these eight "Focused on" priorities and values of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not initially be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are. If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.
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