Our concluding post of our review of Professor Carlota Perez' "The New Technologies: An Integrated View". To contrast this post to yesterday's discussion around our funding failure, reflects the surreal nature of the work here. There is much academic support, unanimous agreement with people who know enough about oil and gas, and general understanding that People, Ideas & Objects is the direction we should move, yet no funding. Professor Perez has based her research on the major economic events that have occurred in the last number of centuries. That her paper was first published in 1986 shows the quality and validity of her research.
RETHINKING THE ROUTE TO DEVELOPMENT
Contained within this paper's conclusion is a caution that once these paths have been taken, the need to sustain the development (of People, Ideas & Objects) is critical. A concern that is valid in any industry, but one where the oil and gas industry has been notoriously poor at. There are remnants of so many piecemeal initiatives littering the landscape, some in the form of commercial enterprises, that one should check their sanity in getting involved in this project.
What we do know is that the bureaucracy is on life support and will soon pass into history. Our problem is to ensure that alternatives are in place before the corpse begins to atrophy. In 2010 we stand on the shoulders of several generations of giants and could find the fall from these lofty heights painful. At 270 billion man days per day, we have far to fall and much to lose. We also know that Information Technology (IT) has been constrained and is now mature enough to be able to carry much more organizational weight. That is to say, society is demanding things be done in the easier manner provided by technology.
From what has been said no productive sector is immune to the influence of the new technologies. This implies that, into the future, most of existing plant is technically and organizationally obsolete. And with this, so are the notions and guidelines that resulted in its establishment. Hence the productive structure of each country from one end to the other must be reexamined under the light of the new conditions. p. 42
And that re-examination is here at
People, Ideas & Objects, based on the Joint Operating Committee and represented in the vision of the
Draft Specification. With the five year time frame noted in which to develop the Draft Specification, and five years being a minimum number of years for management to come up with their own specification, what alternatives do we have. As each day passes we lose time in which the final solution is brought to market, because of a lack of funds!
To affirm this begs the question of how to go about it. The only answer is that the new routes will necessarily result from a massive process of social creativity. The important thing is to point out that the space within which to invent them is new and different. Here we shall limit ourselves to indicating some general guidelines stemming from the features of the new paradigm. These can serve as a starting point to rethink development strategies. p. 42
Management will no doubt want their solution to be in the top-down manner that they are used to. People, Ideas & Objects is a user based, bottom-up solution based on the vision of the Draft Specification. Taping into this "social creativity" is what the technologies provide, we would be foolish not to want to incorporate it. It is reasonable to predict this approach will provide a quantum increase in productivity and efficiency.
In this context it is important to note that the new forms of organization can, by themselves and with a minimum of new equipment, significantly raise efficiency. Moreover, experience acquired after reorganization is the best source of criteria for selecting the most adequate and truly indispensable new equipment to incorporate. This has been shown again and again in Japanese plants and is in agreement with the results of a study conducted in the UK. The reorganization route can serve to revitalize and modernize certain sections of the existing industrial basis with modest investment costs. p. 43
What we are unable to do in this project, is to rally the financial support of the management. Information Technology investments have proven controversial in oil and gas, what has / needs to change to fulfill these possibilities?
We have already referred to the key role of technological dynamism in the new paradigm and the intermediary function performed by software and systems engineering firms in bringing the adaptive potential to practice. This means that taking true advantage of the new model requires a leap unto the new technologies. p. 44
And for the really tough part...
What does have to be understood is that the effort has to be sustained and concentrated. Once in the race, technological dynamism has to be maintained at the rhythm of the international frontier. This, in countries lacking a risk capital market and an adequate network of industrial services, requires a strong policy of promotion and support, capable of stimulating research and innovation and providing appropriate externalities. p. 45
I can only assume based on our 2010 funding failure, that a sustained effort can only be achieved by a chronic fear brought about by the failure of the bureaucracies. I say that on the basis of the amount of work we have to do, and the amount of time before a solution is needed by the market.
Nonetheless we believe that preparation for the future cannot be postponed. Once a world upswing is unleashed, development prospects for each country will depend not only on the level of development attained in the previous wave but also in having been capable, early enough, of creating the conditions for taking best advantage of the new. p. 46
March 31, 2010 is the deadline for raising our 2010 operating budget. After which a variety of consequences, such as financial penalties and a loss of one years time will occur. Our appeal should be based on the
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