2010 Budget and Planning

As promised the 2010 Budget and Plans are set. This post will highlight the aspects of "what" and "how" this is being undertaken. Further discussion is encouraged by contacting me by email or the "Call Me" feature on the bottom left column of this blog.

First off is the objectives for 2010. Completion of the Preliminary Specification was mentioned yesterday. The Preliminary Specification is a collaboration of the end user community. It's cost is based on 100 "People" years of effort and will determine two key components; the scope of the application modules and the detailed analysis of the oil and gas business in a comprehensive, codified manner. The two constraints placed on this development are they must use the Draft Specification as it's starting point and be focused exclusively on the business of oil and gas. Technology is not part of this specifications deliverable. The only technological requirement will be the generation of stories in line with the agile manifesto.

We seek to capture the ways and means of the optimal innovative oil and gas producer in the Preliminary Specification. The understanding of the industry is beyond the scope of a handful of contributors and involves multiple disciplines. The collaborative output of the Preliminary Specification will be well beyond the scope of one individuals understanding of the industry. Therefore clarification and compromise will be a necessary and difficult part of the process. Using advanced business techniques focused on the conflicts and contradictions that arise, the output will resolve many of the issues within the industry and its application to the Draft Specification. This is a business design process that will involve literally everyone and anyone with experience and understanding of the oil and gas industry. More specifically it is a place where people can contribute their ideas and build their own service based offering in support of the innovative oil and gas producer and users of the developing People, Ideas & Objects software.

Contributors to the Preliminary Specification are invited to join this development through this process. Users will be compensated for their contributions. I have allocated an average $125.00 U.S. / hour for user contributions. Each of the 100 People years is determined on an eight hour day and 220 days per year. 30% of the $10 million budget is allocated to users. The total population of users may possibly number in the thousands of individuals. This will not be a full time task for any of users, and it is anticipated that no one would be required to leave their current positions in order to contribute to these developments. Subscribing producers are encouraged to second their human resources to this process in order to ensure their unique business needs are met by the Community of Independent Service Providers and the software itself.

Additional financial resources are budgeted in the support of this developing community. Maintenance of the private wiki where these postings will reside, in addition to the multitude of other support requirements; requires we allocate an equal amount of resources to support the community. The remaining 40% of our budget is allocated to overhead, organizational development, preparation & testing of the technological architecture, and the software configurations themselves.

As indicated the time frame for completion of this critical community development and specification delivery is the end of the 2010 calendar year. The determination that 100 People years is adequate is a judgment call made based on my experience and understanding of the oil and gas industry. I anticipate that towards the end of 2010 we may be consuming as much as one People year with each day of development.

As always, please join us here.

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2010 Funding Policies and Procedure

Establishing 2010 as the year that this project stops the passage of time without consequence. We have a problem in oil and gas. That problems definition, size and scope is generally understood and agreed to. The current oil and gas companies organization models are unable to meet our needs and they are certainly not positioned to address our future. And by "our" future it is intended to define societies future. For this reason we need to move to begin the development of the Preliminary Specification, and have it completed in 2010. The next blog post will document the budget and planning necessary for this to occur. Key to attaining these goals is the scope of the effort has been determined to be 100 "People" years. People years is the same as the gendered "man" years in defining what the effort is. With statement of these goals it is necessary that we create the mechanisms to raise this money.

The budget will also document that the 2010 capital requirements total $10 million. By stating this it shows the serious nature of properly identifying the user community. The May 2004 Preliminary Research Report documents the issues the oil and gas industry is currently facing. The document also establishes the accuracy of the research that has been conducted in this weblog. Now that management of the oil and gas companies understand these issues, they should also understand the need to act.

Therefore I want to reiterate that the targets for funding these developments are primarily to the shareholders and oil and gas investors. They are the ones that have been adversely affected by managements co-opting the governance frameworks to better secure their existence. Clearly investors want and need an alternative governance and organizational method to build and manage their oil and gas assets. People, Ideas & Objects makes these changes in the Compliance & Governance Module of the Draft Specification. Our secondary markets are the National Oil Companies like Pemex, Petronas and Saudi Aramco. Quasi governments and corporations who hold the dual role of managing their countries oil and gas resources. Lastly our openness of communications enable the International Oil Companies and Independent producers to contact us and participate. The benefit in being part of this development is to have their unique organizational needs met by the software being built, and the CISP's service based offerings. Lastly Start-ups, primarily due to their lack of any substantial production, are also welcomed to this development.

Fees for 2010 have been set at $1.00 / BOE / Day. (A producer that produces 50,000 / boe / day would be assessed $50,000 for 2010). These fees are due and payable on or before March 31, 2010. Invoices will not be provided outside of this blog post. We are also establishing a Penalty component as follows: 1) Penalties are assessed on March 31 of the current year. Penalties are 300% of the years fees. 2) Any participant to this development will need to make up any and all Fees and Penalties back to January 1, 2010. Therefore if a producer joins in 2012, they will need to pay the Fees and Penalties of 2010, 2011 and 2012 before they would be entitled to participate in these communities, developments, or use of the software. Choosing to wait to join this development will preclude the communities and developments ability to cater to the producers needs. As time passes the inertia of these developments will make it progressively more difficult for one firm to address the scope of their development needs. 

The Business Model of People, Ideas & Objects provides substantial value to our subscribing producer firms. The basis of these developments uses the cost - plus model. Where these costs are amortized over the participating producers, once. Our objective, and that of the Community of Independent Service Providers (CISP) is to provide the innovative oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas exploration and production.

Management may want to sit back and continue to belittle this process. Noting that it doesn't have this and hasn't got that. That it is a start-up with no proven record of delivering any commercial software. If the research, business model, user focus, using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct, and our understanding of the oil and gas industry from a business point of view doesn't sell you, nothing will. Our competitors will be far better at selling you the next great technology that comically brings you closer to your customers.

To participate please contact me at this email or call me by selecting the "Call Me" service on the bottom of the left hand column. And for those individuals interested in joining, please join us here.

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2009 Year in Review

Starting off 2010 it's important to highlight some of the 2009 developments of this project. 2009 was our first full year of community development. It is clear that using the Joint Operating Committee resonates with many of those who work in oil and gas. Through analysis of the numbers of subscribers to this blogs feed. Shows the community is large and engaged with the content. Another point that is clear is the risk of being seen to be active and committing to this process. We are well aware of the consequences of being too early and too closely affiliated with these ideas. Management of the oil and gas companies want nothing to do with this development, or with the people associated with it. Keeping the community anonymous, in addition to its further development is our number one priority for 2010.

Our second priority for 2010 is to secure our budget and implement our plans for the development of the Preliminary Specification. The budget and plan will be posted here in the next few days. Securing the financial resources to proceed with tangible developments is necessary for further community development.

Highlights of the past year.

• A general understanding the issues in oil and gas production and exploration are substantial. Over the next 20 years, companies such as Exxon, have quantified the scope of these issues as being an additional $20 trillion. This requires a different approach.
  
• Oracle Corporation released their Oracle Fusion product offering. Oracle's activities in this area have been an unknown in the oil and gas ERP marketplace. This unknown has had the effect of freezing the decision making process of producers. Two things stand out in Oracle's offering. One is Oracle's comical desire for the oil and gas producer to get closer to it's customers. And possibly fatally, Oracle has spent $39 billion in capital in the Fusion investment. Both of these points show that Oracle needs further development to meet the needs of the innovative oil and gas producer.
  
• Professor Oliver Williamson's winning of the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economics. Much of the Draft Specification uses the theories and ideas of Williamson and others. I find the awarding of the prize brings substantial credibility to the Draft Specification, and hence to it's community of users.
• Clarification and confirmation of the targeted market for these software applications and communities services. Through the development of this community it has become clear that the software offerings and services appeal to International Oil Companies (IOC's), National Oil Companies (NOC's), Independent Oil and Gas Companies and Start-up producer firms.

People, Ideas & Objects future is bright. We understand that people who are interested in joining this Community might only be able to contribute a few hours per week, so please join us here.

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Our tradition with Ralph Waldo Emerson

It is that time again to review my favorite author and share a specifc article of his works. This also marks the fourth full year of posting on this blog.

This year I have selected Emerson's first book "Nature" as this years reading. As with all of his works I find his writing inspiring and more topical today. Nature does not disappoint. Enjoy!

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Professor Paul Romer, Endogenous Technical Change

We are in the middle of a comprehensive review of Professor's Carliss Baldwin and Eric von Hipple new working paper "Modelling a Paradigm Shift: From Producer Innovation to User and Open Collaborative Innovation". In the last post we learned that innovation within the community of People, Ideas & Objects is considered "a non-rival good: each participant in a collaborative effort gets the value of the whole design, but incurs only a fraction of the design cost." Music to my ears and a definitive benefit when a user considers their potential involvement in this community.

In a related document, Professor Paul Romer's October 1990 "Endogenous Technical Change"  discusses the impact of these non-rival goods impact on economic growth.

Growth in this model is driven by technological change that arises from international investment decisions made by profit-maximizing agents. The distinguishing feature of the technology as an input it that it is neither a conventional good nor a public good; it is a non-rival, partiallyexcludable good.

These non-rival goods are being codified in the Draft Specification and developed by this community in the Preliminary Specification. The community will also develop their value adding service offerings, to be used with the People, Ideas & Objects software applications they've developed, in providing their producer clients with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. I'd like to see Oracle compete with that.

What I want to highlight is Professor Romer's note that mankind's progress was constrained for a long period of time. Not until we were able to rise above the grind of working for our basic needs did we move forward.

This result offers one possible way to explain the wide variation in growth rates observed among countries and the fact that in some countries growth in income percapita has been close to zero. This explanation is reminiscent of the explanation for the absence of growth in prehistoric time that is offered by some historians and anthropologists: civilization, and hence growth, could not begin until human capital could be spared from the production of goods for immediate consumption.

Taken in this context it is clear to me that the community and these software applications have the capacity to significantly increase the productivity of the oil and gas producer. Our way of economic organizations have brought us to the point where we are today. To move forward in the future we need to revisit the ways in which we conduct business. And that is my desire for the oil and gas industry with this blog, software and communities development. What Romer has to state on this point is clearly beneficial for all concerned.

The most interesting positive implication of the model is that an economy with a large stock of human capital will experience faster growth. This finding suggests that free international trade can act to speed up growth. It also suggests a way to understand what it is about developed economies in the twentieth century that permitted rates of growth of income percapita that are unprecedented in history.

We stand on the shoulders of giants and begin a process of such great potential. Please join me here in 2010.

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McKinsey, Strategy Through Turbulence

I can not reflect on the past four years on this blog without closing out the year by noting the significant contribution that McKinsey Consulting have provided us. This is the 64th article that I have written about here on this blog. And more then just the numbers, the topical nature and focus on the changing business times that we find ourselves in. They have done a great service to their clients and I think they have established themselves as the number one consulting firm for the twenty-first century.

This article is a brief eight minute video that summarizes everything that we stand for here at People, Ideas & Objects. The opportunities, turmoil and change are all themes that underlie the research and system specifications. It is of Professor Don Sull of the London Business School. Who talks clearly about the times we face. He also has a new book that I would recommend putting on your reading list as well. Enjoy!

(Embedded video may not render, please see the original McKinsey site.)



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Data and the Military

People, Ideas & Objects have define a Technical Vision that identifies and works to mitigate a technical issue that all areas of society need to address. The issue is the ballooning of data. Noted in National Defence Magazine an article entitled "Military Swimming in Sensors and Drowing in Data" it is stated “The appetite never seems to slow down.” As the energy industry is mostly based on the science of physics, chemistry and biology, it is believed this data growth will fuel innovative use and application in the industry. Those firms that have the capacity and ability to deal with this volume of data will have competitive and financial benefits arise from this capability, but only if this software development and community are funded.

The Community of Independent Service Providers and People, Ideas & Objects - Technical Vision suggests four cornerstone technologies enable this data explosion. At the same time, these technologies provide the ability to deal with the problem / opportunity. The four technologies are;

1. Object based technologies, and particularly Java.
2. Asynchronous Process Management.
3. IPv6
4. Wireless.

Further information on the Technical Vision can be found here.

Today's blog of Richard Fernandez notes this issue is affecting the U.S. Military. And of particular concern, is today's Wall Street Journal video of how Predator Drones have been monitored by insurgents. (If that specific URL doesn't work, search WSJ's video site for Predator Drones.) This issue of the Predator Drones is also noted in Fernandez's second blog post.

Some may note "This explosion of data has occurred for the better part of the last 40 years. Computers have always presented this difficulty and the energy industry will address this problem as it has before." I hope not, because the volume of data and the ability to use that data are something that will have to be purpose built and dynamic. What can be monitored can also be controlled.

People, Ideas & Objects has listed this Technical Vision as the manner in which this community will approach the problem. By exploiting the advantages and having the commercial benefits accrue to those that have a handle on them, I think, will be the difference between success and failure in the oil and gas industry. Critical to the success of the oil and gas producer will be this change oriented and innovation supporting community and application.

The Draft Specification considers a scenario where the use of this type of data and the ability to manage it is possible in a fundamentally more profitable way. The example is the manner in which energy prices can dictate, on a pre-determined and agreed too basis, at what price level would trigger the production was scaled back. If prices were to drop a predetermined percentage, then the production would be autonomously scaled back by X%. And these decisions could be executed on an iterative basis to fully exploit the reserves of the specific Joint Operating Committee (JOC).

These are business decisions that can be made by the Joint Operating Committee as it holds the legal and operational decision making control of the reserves underlying the property in question. (And something today's bureaucracies can not even begin to consider.) If the JOC has the authority, and the legal agreements consider this opportunity, then the industry can move from a price-taker to a price-maker position. This last point should be coming more evident as a necessity in the industry. Leaving everything to produce at 100% and then watch the prices drop year after year must get a little tiring. Only a fool would continue to sell his resources at a price less then its cost. And in an escalating cost environment, we have many managers who know they do not have the tools to deal with this problem, and yet will not support this software development project and associated community.

If it is generally agreed by the producers that an additional $20 trillion will be spent on oil and gas operations in the next 20 years. I would suggest the producers attain these types of capabilities so that they can prove to their shareholders they have the capabilities to address these difficulties and profit from them. Or is it really assumed that the bureaucracies can exist in that prospective environment, and provide returns to those outside of their own management team. Please join me here.

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Professor's Baldwin and von Hipple III

The third part of our review of the Baldwin and von Hipple paper focuses on the literature review. It is in this section of the paper that the issue of Intellectual Property is raised. Baldwin and von Hipple write what most people would consider to be factual in understanding how innovations are developed.

When taken together, the findings of all these empirical studies make it very clear that users have long been and are doing a lot of commercially-significant process development and product modification in many fields.

Let us first gain an understanding of what the authors define as Users. This user description is not different from what we are employing here at People, Ideas & Objects.

Users, as we define the term, are firms or individual consumers that expect to benefit from using a design, a product or a service. In contrast, producers expect to benefit from selling a design, a product, or a service. Innovation user and innovation producer are thus two general "functional" relationships between innovator and innovation. Users are unique in that they alone benefit directly from innovation. Producers must sell innovation-related products or services to users, hence the value of innovation to producers is derived from users willingness to pay. Thus, in order to profit, inventors must sell or license knowledge related to their new design, manufacture and sell goods embodying the innovations; or deliver and sell services incorporating complementing the innovations.

Users have unlimited access to the Intellectual Property that is developed by People, Ideas & Objects and the community. This IP, and all associated ideas, are a product of the User community and freely available for the user community to employ in their own service offering to their oil and gas clients. The only limitation for users is the ability to run the binary of the software is limited to People, Ideas & Objects exclusively. Also only licensed users who are active in the community will have access to the software, ideas and knowledge held within the community. Creating an exclusive service offering who's focus is to provide the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations.

The users then earn their fees in providing the services and software to oil and gas producers. Users are licensed to access this information based on their own skills and provide those services to their oil and gas producer clients at no charge for the software or the access to the underlying IP. (Users bill their clients for their services.) Clearly the involvement of a user within this community is critical to the success of the project, as we discussed yesterday. And this success provides the users with a means to pursue their career in the most effective manner that they see fit. Why do we do this.

Reexaminations of traditional economic arguments triggered by evidence of free revealing show that innovators generally freely reveal for two economically rational reasons. First, it is in practice difficult to effectively protect most innovations via secrecy or intellectual property rights. Second, significant private benefits often accrue to innovators that do freely reveal their innovations.

The Draft Specification is designed around eleven modules. Professor's Baldwin, Langlois and Williamson have defined the benefits of modularity and the importance of modular designs. Here the authors provide a good summary of how modularity fits within this project.

Modularity is important for collaboration in design because separate modules can be worked on independently and in parallel, without intense ongoing communication across modules. Designers working on different modules in a large system do not have to be colocated, but can still create a system in which the parts can be integrated and will function together as a whole. In small projects or within modules, designers can utilize “actionable transparency” rather than modularity to achieve coordination. When projects are small, each designer’s activities are “transparent” to his or her collaborators. In open collaborative projects, modularity and actionable transparency generally go hand in hand, with both factors contributing to the divisibility of tasks (Colfer, 2009).

Here in this last quotation is the real value of the CISP. The value of participating in this community is reflected in the name People, Ideas & Objects. Ideas are non-rival and therefore participation brings about the greatest attributes of ideas for all involved. Ideas are able to build on the prior knowledge and the many innovations and ideas that came before it. Having the communities ideas and innovation backed up by a user driven software development capability, only makes this more worthwhile for the members of the community and their oil and gas producer clients.

Building on arguments of Ghosh (1998), Raymond (1999), and von Hippel and von Krogh (2003), Baldwin and Clark (2006 b) showed formally that, if communication costs are low relative to design costs, then any degree of modularity suffices to cause rational innovators that do not compete with respect to the design being developed to prefer collaborative innovation over independent innovation. This result hinges on the fact that the innovative design itself is a non-rival good: each participant in a collaborative effort gets the value of the whole design, but incurs only a fraction of the design cost.

Please join me here.

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Professor's Baldwin and von Hipple II

I want to expand on Professor's Carliss Baldwin and Eric von Hippel's paper that we recently started reviewing. I think this paper is critical in defining many of the attributes of this software development project, and will add value with new insight and information. Specifically, in applying the findings in this paper I hope to prove to the User community that this type of project is less risky from the point of view of them investing their time and efforts in participating. The pace of this paper's review will be thorough and complete. Limiting our review in this second installment to just the Introduction and Overview.

As background information, People, Ideas & Objects software applications are marrying the User groups that define their needs in the software, with the software developers. This relationship is permanent and maintains the project in a constant state of change based on the users innovations. Software is not a destination but is best considered a journey. Users of People, Ideas & Objects applications are those that use this software in combination with their own service operations. The Community of Independent Service Providers derive their revenue from both the producers that employ them for their services and from People, Ideas & Objects for the work the users do in designing, implementing and working on development of the software. Creating an environment where the users are key in every aspect and element of this community.

This change oriented and innovation based community will generate their own innovations. In addition the People, Ideas & Objects software needs to mirror the needs of the producers who are iterating on the earth science and engineering innovations involved in oil and gas. The point I want to make is the users commitment to this community involves substantial risk and a comprehensive career commitment. Of the three models of innovation People, Ideas & Objects and the Community of Independent Service Providers fall into the authors "open collaborative model".

Our analysis will lead us to conclude that innovation by individual users and also open collaborative innovation are modes of innovating that increasingly compete with and may displace producer innovation in may parts of the economy.

We will argue that when it is technologically feasible, the transition from closed producer or single user innovation to open single user or collaborative innovation is also desirable in terms of social welfare, hence worthy of support by policy-makers. This is due to the free dissemination of innovation designs associated with the open model. Open innovation generates innovation without exclusivity or monopoly, and so should improve social welfare other things equal.

This last quote is in line with why this project is called People, Ideas & Objects. It is derivative of Professor Paul Romer's new growth theory of People, Ideas & Things. Which states in the virtual world ideas can be used by many people without diminishing the value to anyone else. The important take away for me was that we are needing exponential volumes of ideas to expand our economy. How these ideas are vetted, developed and implemented is the topic of Professor Baldwin and von Hipple's paper and this software development.

Users need to understand that the success of this project is wholly dependent on their involvement. This paper provides evidence that this mode of open collaborative innovation is preferable, "should improve social welfare" and will be successful. Therefore mitigating their risks in investing their time and efforts in this community. I think this provides the user with the most sound and economic basis for their review of this project from the point of view evaluating their investment in this model. Please join me here.

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Williamson gets his Nobel.

Professor Oliver Williamson received his Nobel Prize in economics yesterday. I thought it would be a good time to review his work and reflect on its impact here at People, Ideas & Objects. In his December 8th 2009 address Williamson is recognized for "his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm." In my opinion this is a must view video.

It has been our review of Professor's Williamson's, Richard N. Langlois of the University of Connecticut and Carliss Baldwin of Harvard that we have been able to incorporate in the Draft Specification. Defining where the boundaries of the oil and gas firm and market definitions exist. It is these ideas, being applied from this body of research that is being recognized in Oliver Williamson's Nobel Prize. Professor Williamson provides an overview of his work at the beginning of his Prize Lecture;

The research program on which I and others have been working has been variously described as the "economics of governance," the "economics of organization," and "transaction cost economics." Whereas governance is the overarching concept, appeal to organization theory provides vital support, and transaction cost economics is the means by which to breathe operational content into governance and organization. For economists, organization is important if and as it is made susceptible to analysis.

Many other people have written about Williamson's Nobel Prize. Two of the best reviews I saw were from Professor Gary Becker (a Nobel Laureate himself) and Richard Posner on the Becker / Posner blog. 

Posner notes:

Or--most fundamentally--why there are firms at all--why all economic activity isn't carried on by contracts among individuals. Ronald Coase asked that question in a paper entitled "The Nature of the Firm," published in the 1930s. His answer was that a producer has a choice between contracting with independent contractors for the output of the various inputs into this production of the finished product, and contracting with individual workers--employees--not for their output but for the right to direct their work--and that the employer would choose between forms of contract--the contract with the independent producers or the employment contract--on the basis of which was more efficient, given the nature of his business.

Becker states:

One of the most compelling observations from highly competitive environments is that many different organizational structures sometimes survive in the same industry.

Both the inter country and within country evidence indicate that no single organizational form is always the most profitable even in a particular sector of the economy. Different combinations of scale economies, principle-agent problems, compensation practices, thickness of the span of control, and many other variables highlighted in the organizational literature often produce outcomes that are about equally efficient and profitable. The outcome of strong competition is the only really decisive way to determine which are the possibly quite different but about equally efficient combinations of all these different variables.

Another good summary is provided by Douglass North (another Nobel Laureate) in this YouTube video.

It's about productivity. How will the organizations and individuals interact and transact business within the oil and gas industry. In People, Ideas & Objects the Joint Operating Committee is the key organizational construct of the innovative oil and gas producer. It is the objective of both the software and its associated Community of Independent Service Providers to provide the innovative oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas production.

In his telephone interview on October 12, 2009 Professor Williamson said the one overall point of his work was to recognize that all forms of organization are flawed. That certainly applies to the hierarchy but also to our use of the Joint Operating Committee. What we have gained in making the change to the JOC is the elimination of many of the conflicts and contradictions that exist between the producer firms and the JOC. We are also expanding the understanding of the oil and gas producer within the ERP systems.

In summary, this project competes with the likes of Oracle and SAP. Where Oracle has expended $39 billion to bring a "new" application to market. Not an oil and gas specific application, but an application that is nonetheless constrained by Oracle's loose spending ways. There exists a general consensus of those in the oil and gas industry, that there is a need to expend an additional $20 trillion over the next 20 years in exploration and production. And now, an oil and gas application that is steeped in the academic research that is today recognized as important by the Nobel Prize committee. Is it not surprising to me that the do-nothing managers in the industry are threatened by this project. Please join me here.

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