James Hamilton on Exxon Production
I have highlighted the work of University of San Diego Professor James Hamilton on this blog before. He writes this weekend on the changing face of the oil and gas industry. Focusing on the difficulties Exxon has experienced this past decade in moving their daily production volumes higher. Exxon has stated on two occasions, 2001 and 2006 they will increase production 3% each year. Only to experience an overall small decline.
This is in many ways last weeks news and something that was known by most "in the know" in the industry as early as the mid 1990's. With the commodity pricing being so bullish in the past decade, it is reasonable to assume that all was done by all the producers to bring on as much production as was possible. Nonetheless the overall deliverability of the global industry has been somewhat stable at around 85 million barrels per day.
What I find interesting in Professor Hamilton's article, is the range of Exxon's risk profile. Spending $4 billion for a 25% interest in Ghana's offshore Jubilee oil field.
...it still seems to signal a change in philosophy for a company that has historically been extremely careful with its investments in order to maintain its position as a very low-cost producer.It is suggested in the article that Exxon needs a price greater then $100.00 per barrel of oil in order to provide a return for that investment. I would suggest that the ways and means of managing this investment in Ghana is not any different then what a groups of start up producers would face in a low risk onshore play in North America. The Joint Operating Committee is the systemically global method of managing oil and gas assets.
Exxon did not spend $4 billion to have the "operator" take operational control of the property. They will influence what they want to see in the property and participate effectively through the Joint Operating Committee. A form of organization that SAP is not even aware it exists! The members of the JOC are able to pursue their own independent strategies as to what they want and need from the property. The conflict and contradictions only arise when Exxon Mobil should attempt to apply a global corporate compromised strategy. These corporate compromises are unable to extract the value that properties like the Jubilee oil field provides. Each JOC needs to be managed in the best interests of the property. A critical change to the way things need to be done in oil and gas today.
Corporate strategies can be developed on what is done with the value of the proceeds from the Jubilee field, and that is where the large International Oil Companies (IOC's) and the start up producer may differ. I recall my many days when I was auditing Imperial Oil the Canadian arm of Exxon. I was reviewing the firms gas royalty operations on behalf of my client the Alberta Government. This was between the years 1988 to 1994 and I accumulated the knowledge of how the firm was designed.
It was brilliant and awe inspiring. The times were different then today, the commodity prices and oversupply of the market were the two overriding concerns. Looking at how the firm extracted value from each property, granted under a standard corporate strategy, and used their "might" to make the operation the most impressive accumulation of assets that I had ever, and still had the opportunity to see.
What I am suggesting is that today Imperial would need to be run in a different manner. A manner where each property is designed to maximize the return and minimize the risk of each individual property. You can not do that with the bureaucracies that are in play, and the software they use, such as SAP.
Whether a producer is a local startup or ExxonMobil I don't think makes a difference. The innovative oil and gas producer, the National Oil Company (NOC), or IOC will need to make these changes to this fundamentally different oil and gas marketplace. The world is in a deep recession, except for oil and gas. The pricing has never been better and the upside more dramatic to those producers that can innovatively use their earth science and engineering capabilities against their asset bases. With demand for energy from China and India, the future of the industry looks to be the best it ever has. I would challenge the thinking that SAP, conceived in the 1970's, and bureaucracies, conceived of in GM by Alfred Sloan in the very earliest part of the 20th Century, is the solution to the industries needs today.
As I am one to suggest, you should never expect a mouse to run like a horse, do not expect a bureaucracy and SAP to meet the challenges of this industry on a go forward basis. Please join me here.
Technorati Tags: People's Hamilton Strategy Management Innovation