Critical Issues and Grand Challenges,...
Addressing the critical issue of the oil and gas producers performance is one of today's grand challenges. Prices of the commodities is a guessing game from one quarter to the next, however we know two things. The global demand is clearly accelerating through the Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) countries. And the global supply has remained constant at around 86 million barrels per day since 2005. We also know the amount of earth science and engineering effort per barrel of oil is climbing and will continue to do so throughout the rest of time we use the commodities as energy. The retirement of the industry brain trust and other issues seem to conspire to make it even more difficult.
Hydraulically fracturing shale shows much promise for highly prolific wells with aerial extents as broad as the Appalachians. Crushing that much rock will take some effort. The remaining political, financial and technical risks are growing larger each day. How will the industry find the volumes of more people and ideas necessary to profitably serve the future demand.
This MIT video entitled Critical Issues and Grand Challenges shows the path we are on here at People, Ideas & Objects is the right one. The first two presenters on this video provide information and insight that only seasoned CEO's can provide. The first is John Reed, the former CEO of Citibank to discuss the September 2008 banking crisis. There is no doubt in his mind that the "banking industry needs to be completely rebuilt and reconfigured." Suggesting that "without the government interventions, the banking industry was bankrupt." Here he talks about the scope of the challenge as being global and one that needs new and effective regulations that do not stifle innovation and progress.
Reed talks about the "Too Big to Fail" issue that is pre-eminent in regulators minds. That systemic risks have to be identified and removed before they cause the system to break down as it did in 2008. He feels that in the 1980's there was a change towards satisfying shareholders almost exclusively. And at the same time the compensation of management was permitted to expand as long as the shareholders were being satisfied.
The securitization of assets became the key marketing tool of the major banks. Here Banks were able to, as Reed points out, interactively determine what was necessary to have a rating agency provide the AAA rating for the securitized assets. Which over time made the ratings process less and less objective.
Reed's conclusion is as follows:
The industry must be rethought and rebuilt. A systems view which includes behavioral considerations is essential.In viewing this presentation it becomes clear that the ways and means of international banking systems had become skewed towards those on the inside. This caused the damage to the economy and is unacceptable that it continue in the manner that it had.
I believe the oil and gas industry has changed materially in the last decade. Moving from the easy energy era to today's technically difficult market. I also believe this is a transition that has been ignored by management. Most of the companies that were present in the easy era have been able to realize substantial market value gains. By trading on the higher prices for the commodities, the management are well taken care of with the higher cash flows from these price fluctuations, not the value the managements have provided.
Second to discuss their industry is Denise Cortese, the CEO of the Mayo Clinic. In the U.S. he notes, people believe the health care system is broken. And he argues the vision for Health care is missing. Asking the audience to develop the vision Cortese asks "who would want to spend tomorrow at the worlds best hospital". Of course no one wants to be in a hospital. Cortese then asks why is the solution to health care, a Hospital? And commenting that nothing can be done on a large scale, like reforming health care, without a vision.
Particularly pertinent is he states "you don't self organize without a vision". Citing the example of WWII Cortese suggests that without General Eisenhower's vision, the troops sent in on D-Day would have been unable to self organize. When the 101st Airborne division was dropped nowhere close to their drop zone, they were still able to self organize and move, although chaotically, toward fulfilling that vision.
Its at this point of the video's remaining hour and five minutes that provides no new value and I recommend skipping the rest. To me the important aspect of this video is the need for these industries to be remade. Just as Professor Carlota Perez suggested as early as 2005, industries will need to make necessary changes to the organization to accommodate the impact of Information and Communications Technologies. Both Reed and Cortese suggested how the motivation in these industries is distorted, leading to their difficulties.
The vision that the Draft Specification provides is the road map for people to follow. Chaos is mentioned many times in the video, and I think it reflects clearly that these changes are not as smooth as one would assume could be. Thankfully we are not in the health care business where people could get hurt, or the financial business with the collateral damage we've experienced in the last year. We are talking about oil and gas ERP systems and I am not aware of anyone being hurt by that. Please join me here.
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