Berkshire Shareholder Letter
We've all heard of the "Oracle of Omaha" Warren Buffett and understand his perspective on business. Lately he has taken some solid hits to his reputation with the high profile and large investments he made in Citibank and General Electric. Both being questionable in terms of judgement.
“The economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond,” said Buffett. “Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so.”The annual report of Berkshire Hathaway is available and down-loadable from here. The Wall Street Journal also has a review of the letter to shareholders here .
Well actually yes we have. There have been many other periods of time in which the economy has been hit by a depression. The 1930's being the most recent. These are long wave economic theories that have been systemically analysed by Professor Carlota Perez. And I have applied them to the oil and gas industry in a variety of blog posts under the label Perez. The key takeaway from her theories is that there is economic stress, or shambles as Buffet calls it. This a necessary and productive time of renewal. The organizations that will come out of this decline will be more able to satisfy the needs of society and people. Something that the old economy styled companies where unable to do.
Professor Ludwig von Mises is famous for educating Professor Friedrich von Hayek in Economics. He also stated an important point pertaining to some of these long term economic cycles. And that is they are generally solutions to the problems of the day. Specifically he states that the "industrial revolution was the solution to the problem of mass hunger".
We need these economic depressions to eliminate the weaker and less adaptive firms from the economy. In oil and gas I have written about the piggies and specifically about Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNRL). I have accused them of aggressively fudging their financial statements in the third quarter. They have lost Fidelity investments and this is the only news we have heard from them? They were to have their Horizon tar sands operational now, yet we only know that their is litigation with the contractor. With $26 billion in debt and greater then $3 billion working capital deficiency, these delays in reporting are evidence of the last moments of that organizations life. Say good bye to this pig.
The time in which people will be faced with the question "what do I do now" is answered with their involvement in this software development project. For a variety of reasons we need to begin the development of the People, Ideas & Objects software application. We have advanced as a society where the role of software in organizing is at a very high level. We have alternatives that make this choice very critical. We either build this software or regress to manual systems. A future that unfolds in a very bad way. We need to get moving with these developments, the time is brief, and we are not moving forward at this point in time. So please, join me here and lets build this software .
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