Saturday, May 20, 2006

Another day, another call to action.

The Wall Street Journal continues on its tradition of producing some of the finest articles. This one about the relatively new Securities and Exchange Commissioner (SEC). Mr. Christopher Cox. Not only has the new commissioner have a great name, but he also has a good idea that dovetails well with what this blogs purpose is.

"Build software that manages the accountability framework, then alignment with the financial, legal, operational decision making and cultural frameworks is achieved. The recognition that these frameworks are defined and constrained by the Joint Operating Committee are how the producer achieves the speed, innovation, capability and adaptability to meet the markets demand for energy." (Quoting myself here.)
Mr. Christopher Cox is interested in doing the same for the entire world's financial trading markets, which as SEC commissioner is his responsibility.

By making the types of comments that Commissioner Cox states in the WSJ article. It is clear to me that he is not only on the right track but will resolve the largest administrative nightmare of the public company reporting process. To me how Sarbanes-Oxley gets resolved from here is difficult. To make any major amendment to it would make it appear as the framework has become unmanageable and invite the Ken Lay's, Jeffry Skilling and Petro Canada's back for more hollowing out of the investors wealth.

How Sarbanes-Oxley legislation is eliminated from the process is by eliminating the need for the 800 plus forms to a handful of standard tags in the Extensible Business Reporting Language. I can only thank that the Commisionner understands the technological capabilities and can apply it to the SEC. I have spoken of meta tags and meta data before, however, I'll leave it to the inventor of the Internet, Sir Tim Berners-Lee to describe why Mr. Christopher Cox's and Mr. Paul Cox's (me again) ideas are workable.

When I speak about the demise of the bureaucracy I am saying the same thing that the Commissioner is saying here. He is laying the groundwork and infrastructure of how investors will be able to manage their assets in the future. Note that I did not state the Investors can manage their companies, but the Investors Assets.

That an investor could purchase an interest in a well, and as such have the entire accountability framework in alignment with the financial, legal, cultural and operational decision making frameworks as captured and defined by the regulation and the software that defines the Joint Operating Committee, and that working interest then is a tradable asset on the worlds exchanges, then we are talking about the new society.

If I have not made it clear at this I point, I'll state it explicitly. Genesys and this blog have adopted the SEC's XBRL tag library. Wow, so now we'll be compliant with the SEC, that was easy.

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Friday, May 19, 2006

Another week, and another call to action.

This one from Oxford Analytica. And as there website reflects;

"Oxford Analytica is an international, independent consulting firm drawing on a network of over 1,000 senior faculty members at Oxford, and other major universities and research institutions around the world. Founded in 1975 by Dr. David R. Young, Oxford Analytica has built an international reputation for seasoned judgement on and analysis of the implications of national and international developments facing corporations, banks, governments and international institutions."
Seeing how they're derived from academia, and assert their independence as a key component of their offering. Oxford Analytica's conclusions and analysis would lead me to believe and trust in them more so then a Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) report. CERA reports which are funded and directed by the energy industry itself, tend to have a self defining and self promoting style of research and conclusions.

It is fair to assume Oxford Analytica's report entitled "Cash rich oil majors focus on frontiers" has little direct financial support or influence by the oil and gas producers. A bias that is evident in many of the alleged research reports from CERA. Research reports that tend to be more focused on the next quarterly outcome, and Dr. Daniel Yergin's strong opinions of how much oil there is, or isn't.

Oxford Analyticas explicit conclusion is stated as;
"Technological lead will prove critical in the efficient exploitation of frontier oil provinces. Upgrading portfolios means majors will divest assets that provide material opportunities for small and medium-sized independents."
Kind of resonates with the fact that the large producers are unable to keep up to the marketplace demands for energy. Or perform in an environment of speed, innovation, capability and adaptability. But then I am just as biased as CERA is in that the hypothesis that I developed in September 2003, and attempted to have funded by Petro Canada et al, that the Joint Operating Committee was the natural form of organization for the oil and gas industry, and that organizations were defined by their software capabilities, was handed to CERA to research as I was hustled to the street by Petro Canada's management. It's just too bad that CERA is not only biased, but also very slow in reaching the research conclusion that I did in May 2004, and, Oxford Analytica have been able to agree upon currently.

If you can sense a bitterness at the attempted theft of my intellectual property by the criminal minds of Petro Canada and CERA you would be incorrect for two reasons. One I ended up with the copyright by publishing the research conclusions to my hypothesis first (the underlying foundation of this blog) . Secondly, I have a right to be sued, as stated here before and documented by Dr. Thomas C. Schelling, a right that I cherish more each day and pray will happen soon.

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Thursday, May 18, 2006

Adaptability, Sun may have something there.

I pirated the Sun CEO's comment that "adaptability" is a key component in business. I noted in an earlier entry that Petro Canada would be unable to adapt to an explorationist mindset due to the bureaucracy. Adaptabililty vs bureaucracy. That will be a major part of the new frontier. In pirating this new definition of the term "adaptability" I now realize that there is some underlying significant meaning.

When added to today's other critical business components of Speed, Innovation and Capability; adaptability establishes new performance criteria for individuals, societies and organizations.

One of the major discoveries in my research was based on Dr. Anthony Giddens Theory of Structuration. That society, people and organizations need to move and progress together, or there will be failure. It doesn't take a lot to realize the troika that Giddens defined is currently out of synch. With the bureaucracies of the organizations impeding the progress of people and society. That a failure will occur due to this non-synchronous state is a given, and I am betting that the bureaucracies will be dispatched to the trash heap sooner then most can imagine.

Dr. Wanda Orlikowski built upon the Theory of Structuration when she defined her Model of Structuration for Technology. Dr. Orlikowski's model asserts that a fundamental component of society is technology, that technology provides a duality and therefore is a constraint or inhibitor to successful advancement of society people and organizations.

I asserted in the development of my hypothesis that;

"hierarchical organizational structure(s) is(are) an impediment to advancement of the oil and gas company and society in general".
My research built upon the Theory of Structuration, Model of Technology Structuration and hypothesis to determine that "SAP is the bureaucracy". That organizations are defined and constrained by the software that supports the organization.

The purpose of this blog and the developments at https://genesys.dev.java.net/ are to define an organizational structure of Speed, Innovation, Capability and Adaptability in the global oil and gas industry.

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Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Why does Petro Canada get all the attention?

To prove that the blogosphere is more powerful then the bureaucracies. The ability for these bureaucracies to survive does not exist. In an environment where innovation, adaptability, speed and capability are required, who needs bureaucrats.

The need to prove that Petro Canada is run for the betterment of the managers "stock" options. Or as I like to refer to them as "entitlement" options. The management can not expect that anyone is going to overlook their use of the treasury for their own purposes. Do they not recall Enron or Worldcom?

Its not personal, but Petro Canada's staff took the time and effort to make sure that I understood that any of the efforts I made in developing this software would be minimal and unsuccessful. That my time in the oil and gas industry was over and that I should find work in other industries. So its just so much easier to pick my targets after this treatment at the hands of their so called "senior" management. Since they have had the luxury of using their power to make my life miserable, all is fair in love and war.

That these organizations as represented by Petro Canada have failed. In every metric of financial, production and particularly earnings, they will begin to show signs of being severely strained. I believe a company that was successful in the exploitation era, is an abject failure in the exploration era. They can not change their stripes.

These failures are beginning to be evident in some of the companies already. Failure is the most advanced in Petro Canada, and therefore picking targets is easiest when they pretend to continue on for the betterment of their shareholders.

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Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Point taken, Chief Java Evangelist

Jonathon Schwartz is the Chief Java Evangelist, President and CEO of Sun Microsystems and in preparation for the Java One conference, he prepared a blog entry to discuss the comparison of the shipping container to Java.

Now I like to joke that Schwartz, McNealy and Gosling are second rate Java evangelists behind myself. Maybe what I should of stated in my comparison of the container and Google is that Google's favorite language is Java.

I am highly recommending that everyone and anyone register for a free web based introductory course on the Java Programming Language. Hosted by Sun employee, Sang Shin, register for the course and learn why most people believe the Java revolution is about to really begin. I'll be registering as well because I understand Mr. Shin so well that I am going to learn much from him.

Monday, May 15, 2006

Before Google, the container.

Sarah Murray wrote an interesting article in last weekend's National Post that was brilliant. Entitled "Birthday of the Box" it chronicled the birth, issues, development and effects of the shipping container. Celebrating it's 50th year, the ubiquitous shipping container has lead to many of the innovations and benefits of globalization up to this point. Noting the particular points of interest are as follows.

  • 90% of global trade now travels inside them.
  • It was the brain child of Mr. Malcom McLean, a North Carolina truck driver.
  • Port operators and ship owners were reluctant to put their money into equipment, vessels and port infrastructure, and most importantly the longshoreman and dockworker unions dug their heels in. (Something that I can appreciate from the oil and gas industry.)
  • Longshoreman in New York dropped from 30,000 in 1960 to 8,500 in 1986.
  • Intermodalism impacted shipping to such an extent that OOCL Shenzhen is the largest vessel. Capable of the following capacity
    • Christened on April 30, 2003 in Korea.
    • Can travel at 25.2 knots at full load.
    • Capacity is more then 8,000 containers.
      • 8 million crates of bananas, or
      • 200 million blouses in a single journey.
  • Delivering choice to the global consumer.
  • Making production of goods to flow to the lowest cost producer. An efficiency that benefits every human on the planet.
  • Used containers are now converted to housing, schools and such in the developing world.
I agree with the author that all aspects of our lives have been impacted and improved as a result of the thinking of this North Carolina truck driver. The author notes that science is also benefiting in many odd ways. In 1992 a container of 29,000 plastic ducks crashed in the middle of the North Pacific. These ducks are helping scientists map and gain a better understanding of ocean currents as these ducks are noted and documented in their travels.

Sarah Murray is the author of an upcoming book called Moveable Feasts: the Incredible Journeys of the Things We Eat, ISBN. Although she mentions that the impact of information technologies on these innovations have also made the container fulfill the promise of its full value, I think she is missing a phenomenal parallel in terms of its impact. And that is Google.

That the container was able to revolutionize the "physical" world is credited to its roots and birth fifty years ago. Google to me provides the same value and impact from the "intellectual" world. As we have automated and "roboticized" much of our production, logistics, shipping and marketing, Google is the same revolutionary thinking. What could be thought today in this world could be implemented and acted upon by Google immediately.

As we pass from the physical to the intellectual worlds, 50 years from now, people will know and say the same things about Google, that we now know and say of the container.

Petro Canada is...

Fill in your own words here, my word is ridiculous. This is the only way that I can describe what the National Post reported in Saturday's edition. Petro Canada was considering partnering with Marathon Petroleum in a Syrian concession that Marathon was granted last week.

So, it's now Monday, the strategy of the 2005 annual report. In which the justification for selling Syrian assets at fire sale prices was.

"The sale of the mature Syrian producing assets aligns with the Company's strategy to increase the proportion of long-life and operated assets in its portfolio."
Is no longer valid.

I can only hope and pray that Petro Canada takes my recommendation to heart. My recommendation noted here was based on Dr. Thomas C. Schelling's "Strategy of Conflict" that I have the right to be sued.

So please I beg of you, sue me, because if you think it's been bad for the last couple of months, you haven't seen anything yet. So do it, and as they say "Lets get ready to rumble".

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Sunday, May 14, 2006

Petro Canada vs. Talisman and Devon.

I'll let readers determine if Petro Canada made a wise (attempted) purchase in Canada Southern Petroleum Ltd.

The May 13th Calgary Herald reported that Talisman and Devon Energy secured four of six parcels in a bid to secure rights in 1,300 square miles of the North West Territories.

Although the Talisman et al rights were for land, the $53.9 million is for work commitments. So to develop the land in the North West Territories, Talisman et al offer $53.9 million to develop 1,300 square miles. (an average cost of $41,461 per square mile.)

Recall the $113 million Petro Canada is offering to secure land in 52 square miles in the Arctic. The Arctic being somewhat North of the North West Territories. (an average cost of $2,173,076 per square mile.) I don't know, but base on these criteria it looks as though Talisman et al made the right decision here?

The key attribute of management is not to spend to much for an asset. Over time the value of the asset, and the future profitability of the company are directly related to these transactions. A good example is, a few years ago Ms. Carly Fiorina of Hewlett Packard offered $19 billion for PriceWaterhouse Coopers. For some reason the transaction didn't close and not even one year later IBM bought PriceWaterhouse Coopers for just $3 billion. A $16 billion difference.

Fortunately, Hewlett Packard dispatched Carly out of the CEO's office. Given an unlimited amount of money for asset acquisition, a fool, such as Carly or Petro Canada, will over pay for assets every time.

Saturday, May 13, 2006

Energy, the one common denominator of life.

Discussions regarding energy and its value are being actively debated around the world. Since the shortages are placing the commodities of energy into the political arena, these discussion are taking on a heightened value.

I thought I would add my two cents in to the discussion, so here goes.

Two things are finite energy and life. No other commodity, or value of anything fits that definition of "finite". There is only so much of it and there is nothing that can be done once either is gone. As time passes, energy and life are irretrievably lost. Nothing can be done to recapture it.

Kind of puts the hole energy discussion into context for me.


Friday, May 12, 2006

The Petro Canada definition of value and maturity.

Today's papers are full of the hostile bid that our favorite company, Petro Canada, is launching against oil and gas producer Canada Southern Petroleum Ltd. Paying $113 million for approximately 1,000 barrels of oil equivalent and 52 square miles in the Arctic may seem high, because it is. Asigning a value of $113 million per 1,000 bbls /day (raw land is always included in deals). Petro Canada wants to be known as an explorer, and that's all there is to it.

Or are these people even acting rationally? Petro Canada recently sold producing assets in Syria. These assets were deemed as "mature" by the company and therefore were no longer appealing to management. Is it therefore fair to assume that Petro Canada's "hostile" bid for Canada Southern is for immature assets? Lets do a comparison.

Syrian assets were sold for $676 million in late 2005 (including rights acquired in 2003). Syrian properties were producing 70,000 boe / day, or, approximately $10 million / 1,000 bbls per day. Petro Canada disposed of this for the following reason.

"The sale of the mature Syrian producing assets aligns with the Company's strategy to increase the proportion of long-life and operated assets in its portfolio."
So to use the vocabulary of Petro Canada the following values can be determined.

Arctic assets are "good" because they are strategic. (ie. long life and operated.) Syrian assets are "bad" because they are not strategic (ie. short life(?) and non-operated.)

Now I see the theme of this management. Again as with the Syrian sale, the Arctic assets seem to be done from the point of view of pure "panic."

I am going to make a clear recommendation that I hope the management of Petro Canada can understand. Revise your strategy to include the word "producing". You'll feel better for it.