McKinsey on Centered Leadership

Today we continue on with the topic of leadership with review of two papers from McKinsey (here and here) that look into a research term they call Centered Leadership. Recently we had the opportunity to review an article from John Hagel and John Seely Brown on the need to develop leaders, and we noted how leadership is a skill that can’t be automated by computers. We’ll start with a quick review of the five elements of McKinsey’s centered leadership and then look at each element closer.

Over the past six years, McKinsey has developed a map of capabilities we call centered leadership. This concept has five dimensions: meaning, or finding your strengths and putting them to work in the service of a purpose that inspires you; positive framing, or adopting a more constructive way to view your world and convert even difficult situations into opportunities; connecting, or building a stronger sense of community and belonging; engaging, or pursuing opportunities disguised by risk; and energizing, or practicing ways to sustain your energy on a long leadership journey.

Applying these dimensions to the prospective users and Community of Independent Service Providers provides the following.

Meaning

People, Ideas & Objects is focused on providing the innovative oil and gas producer with the systems needed to identify and support the Joint Operating Committee. Through this revolutionary change, the industry will be able to better manage their operations. We have also asserted that through use of People, Ideas & Objects software and the Community of Independent Service Providers (CISP), we are able to provide the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. This is our competitive advantage and the we derive meaning from these facts. (Most profitable operations are attained through the lowest cost ERP system, and the software identifying and supporting enhanced divisions of labor and specialization.)

Time and again, we heard that sharing meaning to inspire colleagues requires leaders to become great storytellers, touching hearts as well as minds. These skills are particularly applicable for executives leading through major transitions, since it takes strong personal motivation to triumph over the discomfort and fear that accompany change and that can drown out formal corporate messages, which in any event rarely fire the souls of employees and inspire greater achievement.

Framing

People, Ideas & Objects sees the world optimistically. We live in times where intellectual leverage is being offered and made possible by advanced Information Technology. Setting us on a revolution that is equivalent to what we realized through mechanical leverage in the industrial revolution.

Positive psychologists have shown that some people tend to frame the world optimistically, others pessimistically. Optimists often have an edge: in our survey, three-quarters of the respondents who were particularly good at positive framing thought they had the right skills to lead change, while only 15 percent of those who weren’t thought so.

Connecting

To continue on with the theme of revolution, communications are cutting through the bureaucracies enabling us to connect to like minded individuals. People, Ideas & Objects software developments provide users and members of the Community of Independent Service Providers with the opportunity to leverage their connections into the commercial realm.

With communications traveling at warp speed, simple hierarchical cascades—from the CEO down until the chain breaks—are becoming less and less effective for leaders. For starters, leaders depend increasingly on their ability to manage complex webs of connections that aren’t suited to traditional, linear communication styles. Further, leaders can find the volume of communication in such networks overwhelming. While this environment can be challenging, it also allows more people to contribute, generating not only wisdom and a wealth of ideas but also immeasurable commitment.

Engaging

Of survey respondents who indicated they were poor at engaging—with risk, with fear, and even with opportunity—only 13 percent thought they had the skills to lead change. That’s hardly surprising: risk aversion and fear run rampant during times of change. Leaders who are good at acknowledging and countering these emotions can help their people summon the courage to act and thus unleash tremendous potential.

An element of engaging is how People, Ideas & Objects doesn’t take the time and effort of individuals without understanding the risks and fears they may have. Therefore, the ability to move forward with this project demands that the financial resources be in place before anyone is asked to contribute. People, Ideas & Objects will not ask anyone to incur either monetary or career risks from being involved in this project.

Managing Energy

McKinsey notes:

Sustaining change requires the enthusiasm and commitment of large numbers of people across an organization for an extended period of time. All too often, though, a change effort starts with a big bang of vision statements and detailed initiatives, only to see energy peter out. The opposite, when work escalates maniacally through a culture of “relentless enthusiasm,” is equally problematic. Either way, leaders will find it hard to sustain energy and commitment within the organization unless they systemically restore their own energy (physical, mental, emotional, and spiritual), as well as create the conditions and serve as role models for others to do the same. Our research suggests sustaining and restoring energy is something leaders often skimp on.

Sustaining the energy for this project is something that I consider to be an important part of what I do. For the past five years in which we have been writing about using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the innovative oil and gas producer. We have been able to define the Draft Specification and carry this vision and strategy through some difficult periods. Keeping our “powder dry and our candle lit” for the day in which we begin the development of these systems. This process will continue until such time as the producers learn that their existing ways and means of operation are no longer able to generate value. When producers begin to lose money, we’ll know that our day is close at hand.

Moreover, this survey underscores the impact when leaders embrace not just one or two but all five dimensions of centered leadership. As our 2009 survey also suggested, finding meaning in one’s activities has the strongest impact on general satisfaction with one’s life, but the more dimensions that respondents say they have mastered, the more likely they are to rate themselves highly satisfied with their performance as leaders and with their lives generally.

For this project to succeed leadership from all areas will be needed. As automation of business processes continues and accelerates, skills such as leadership will increase in the day to day activities of most people. Looking ahead what does McKinsey recommend from their research in centered leadership?

• Centered leadership equips leaders for leading change. Among leaders who have mastered all five dimensions of centered leadership, 92 percent say they have the skills to lead through times of major change (versus 21 percent for those yet to master them). Since most executives are living through particularly turbulent economic times, a focus on centered leadership could benefit leaders significantly.
• Big organizations can learn from small ones. Across the board, executives at smaller organizations say they have mastered more dimensions of centered leadership and feel better about their work performance and overall satisfaction. These results suggest that larger organizations have much to learn from small ones on how to attract, motivate, and inspire their employees.
• Future leaders are most at risk. We have long believed that mastering centered leadership is most important for younger women and men who desire to lead, a belief these numbers underscore. The youngest respondents report the lowest scores in all dimensions except connecting. Given the correlation between higher scores and good outcomes, such as leadership effectiveness and general satisfaction, companies would benefit from undertaking the cultural transformation that centered leadership augurs.

For the industry to successfully provide for the consumers energy demands, it’s necessary to build the systems that identify and support the Joint Operating Committee. Building the Preliminary Specification is the focus of People, Ideas & Objects. Producers are encouraged to contact me in order to support our Revenue Model and begin their participation in these communities. Those individuals that are interested in joining People, Ideas & Objects can join me here and begin building the software necessary for the successful and innovative oil and gas industry.

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McKinsey, The Psychology of Change Management

McKinsey, once again, have published an article that provides real value and discussion to the work we are doing here at People, Ideas & Objects. Change is a difficult process to manage. This article discusses the psychology around change management within organizations, and therefore is relevant, but I want to mention a few aspects of People, Ideas & Objects unique perspective before we review this paper.

There are two types of changes that affect organizations. The first type of change is to steer the ship in a new direction, one that is believed to be the better choice for all concerned. The second type of change is the type that is forced upon an organization by events that are beyond the control of anyone. People, Ideas & Objects is oriented to the second type of change. One that addresses the scope of the forces of change that are being exercised on the oil and producer.

The forces of change that are currently being asserted on the oil and gas producers are significant. The change in oil and gas prices affects all aspects of a producer firm. At the same time the volume of engineering and earth science effort per barrel of oil continues on a steep upward trajectory. A third major change that is occurring is what I would call the maturation of the Information Technologies (IT), bringing new and innovative ways of doing business. These are of the type of changes that are seen once a century. Fundamental changes that have the power to re-configure the makeup of an industry.

To accommodate the changes that are acting against the producer firm, People, Ideas & Objects prescription is to align the producers internal processes. By simply moving the compliance and governance frameworks to be in alignment with the Joint Operating Committee’s legal, financial, operational decision making, cultural and communications frameworks. Our research has shown that this alignment increases innovativeness and accountability, to name just two of the key benefits.

Alternatively, left unaddressed, these changes will soon cause producers to outspend their revenue streams. These losses will also exercise the type of change that is needed within the producer firm and the oil and gas industry. Producers therefore need to choose to ride these forces or continue to resist them. Either way that these changes are made, People, Ideas & Objects will provide the systems and applications that provide the innovative oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations.

Our claim to be the most profitable means of oil and gas operations is a bold statement. And we assert that this is provided through our value proposition and the enhanced division of labor the software will identify and support. By allocating the one time development costs across the producer base, the costs of software development will fall to a small percentage of what firms have traditionally paid for ERP systems.

With respect to the second component of our claim to being the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. For any industry to increase its economic output demands that an enhanced division of labor be used. This economic theory has been proven time and again over the last few hundred years. We now live in times where to expand on the current division of labor and specialization requires that advanced Information Technologies be employed to identify and support them. People, Ideas & Objects is configured to develop the software that will provide these to the producer firm. This is our fundamental competitive advantage.

McKinsey’s discussion on change is of the first type, or deliberate change an organization undertakes. Nonetheless it provides us with some valuable information regarding change in general.

Over the past 15 or so years, programs to improve corporate organizational performance have become increasingly common. Yet they are notoriously difficult to carry out. Success depends on persuading hundreds or thousands of groups and individuals to change the way they work, a transformation people will accept only if they can be persuaded to think differently about their jobs. In effect, CEOs must alter the mind-sets of their employees—no easy task.

People, Ideas & Objects have presented a workable vision of how the innovative oil and gas producer would operate. This vision is represented in the Draft Specification. People can then see the effect of working in that environment and adjust their actions to fulfill that vision and enable the innovative oil and gas producer.

But what if the only way a business can reach its higher performance goals is to change the way its people behave across the board? Suppose that it can become more competitive only by changing its culture fundamentally—from being reactive to proactive, hierarchical to collegial, or introspective to externally focused, for instance. Since the collective culture of an organization, strictly speaking, is an aggregate of what is common to all of its group and individual mind-sets, such a transformation entails changing the minds of hundreds or thousands of people. This is the third and deepest level: cultural change.

With the benefits of people having this vision in mind. And using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the innovative producer, people will be able to think differently about their work.

Employees will alter their mind-sets only if they see the point of the change and agree with it—at least enough to give it a try. The surrounding structures (reward and recognition systems, for example) must be in tune with the new behavior. Employees must have the skills to do what it requires. Finally, they must see people they respect modeling it actively. Each of these conditions is realized independently; together they add up to a way of changing the behavior of people in organizations by changing attitudes about what can and should happen at work.

In this next quote McKinsey note that cognitive dissonance will affect the people who believe in our purpose. I can only suggest that those people begin the process of joining People, Ideas & Objects or the Community of Independent Service Providers.

The implication of this finding for an organization is that if its people believe in its overall purpose, they will be happy to change their individual behavior to serve that purpose—indeed, they will suffer from cognitive dissonance if they don’t. But to feel comfortable about change and to carry it out with enthusiasm, people must understand the role of their actions in the unfolding drama of the company’s fortunes and believe that it is worthwhile for them to play a part. It isn’t enough to tell employees that they will have to do things differently. Anyone leading a major change program must take the time to think through its "story"—what makes it worth undertaking—and to explain that story to all of the people involved in making change happen, so that their contributions make sense to them as individuals.

For the industry to successfully provide for the consumers energy demands, it’s necessary to build the systems that identify and support the Joint Operating Committee. Building the Preliminary Specification is the focus of People, Ideas & Objects. Producers are encouraged to contact me in order to support our Revenue Model and begin their participation in these communities. Those individuals that are interested in joining People, Ideas & Objects can join me here and begin building the software necessary for the successful and innovative oil and gas industry.

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McKinsey, When Failure is not an Option

McKinsey Consulting are publishing a three part series on what they describe as the Joint Venture (JV). Entitled “When Failure is not an Option: Making Joint Ventures work for capital projects.” The article notes the role of JV’s in oil and gas and other industries, JV’s are of course one in the same as the Joint Operating Committee (JOC), the key organizational construct of People, Ideas & Objects Draft Specification.

This paper provides further support for the development of the Preliminary Specification and the research that has been conducted by People, Ideas & Objects. It is satisfying that the worlds number one consulting firm are publishing these types of articles. Prospective users and  members of the Community of Independent Service Providers need to see this type of support to ensure their efforts are put towards providing success for the innovative oil and gas producer.

Joint Operating Committees are initiated for a variety of reasons, to reduce capital risk, to include other producers throughout the aerial extent of the property, or to include needed resources and capabilities. Industry has established a culture around using the Joint Operating Committee that is reflected in many of the processes that are used. This culture has developed as a result of the Joint Ventures that are systemic throughout the industry. Whether it’s through agreement, the Operating or Accounting Procedure, partnerships are what the Joint Operating Committee was designed to reflect. McKinsey states;

Historically, project developers have relied on the operating versus non-operating partner construct. However, companies are also increasingly leveraging JV constructs as a way to bring broader expertise into the project, build local talent and industries and retain sovereign ownership. In the oil and gas industry for example, a major project is likely to include a “supermajor” international oil company (for whom this project is part of a very large portfolio), an independent (who may be betting the company on this project), a passive investor (with a purely financial focus), and a national oil company (owned by the government where the project takes place). 

The Draft Specification has specific attributes that resonate with this perspective. First there is the enhanced participation enabled by the Partnership Accounting module. This module deals with the various ways in which partners may contribute to the Joint Operating Committee. Noting in the quotations example the passive investor, national oil company and international oil company each have differing costs and contributions. Permitting each of the firms to contribute fully, in their own unique way, to the successful development of the project. Secondly, the participants that are noted in the McKinsey quote, independents, start ups, international and national oil companies, are the targeted market for the People, Ideas & Objects software applications. Having each of the partners within a JOC with the same software development capability is a necessity, and the key deliverable of People, Ideas & Objects.

Noting the need for change, McKinsey details what is required for these organizations to deal with the enhanced participation enabled by the Partnership Accounting and other modules of the Draft Specification.

On top of the massive scale and obvious technical complexity, these new, multi-operator constructs

• increasingly embody multi-cultural perspectives (both corporate and sovereign),
• frequently represent divergent strategic priorities for the individual owners,
• generally struggle with the governance and performance management challenges associated with any multi-parent structure and
• often lack a single point of accountability for key decisions.

Addressing each of these points has been the topic of discussion in our Review. Having differing types of participants and cultural influences within the Joint Operating Committee is becoming commonplace. We had determined that each participant could pursue their own unique strategy within the property. We developed the Military Command & Control Metaphor to deal with the governance and performance management challenges. And lastly addressed the accountability for the decisions that are made within the JOC and the producer firm. Most importantly, the Draft and Preliminary Specifications are developed to address and resolve these very issues.

Next, consider that the “new generation” of project JV has multiple layers, as both the owners and contractor teams rely on individual partnerships to deliver the project. As this phenomenon evolves, it should be no surprise that we see an explosion of risk and management complexity, given the sheer number of stakeholders involved and the more sophisticated tools and processes needed to deal with project intricacies.

In the Resource Marketplace module of the Draft Specification we have included the service industry as critical elements of the success of the innovative producer. McKinsey are right to suggest the level of risk and complexity will increase further as a result of having the need to develop the support industries. Innovation at the producer level needs the service industries to be intimately involved in developing the products and services the producer demands.

Studies show that about 50 percent of all JVs do not succeed. Moreover, studies of large capital projects indicate that cost overruns from 50 to over 100 percent are common. So, when we consider this double-barreled risk of often-unsuccessful JVs managing often- unsuccessful mega-projects, we recognize that the difficulty project JVs have in aligning and operating effectively is a major reason why large capital projects often fail. Given the strategic importance these projects represent to participating partners, it is clear that JV organizations must be effective if a project is to meet expectations for predictability and performance.

There we have it, the world’s number one consulting firm clearly stating that joint ventures fail due to the difficulty in aligning and operating effectively. People, Ideas & Objects, its prospective users, the Community of Independent Service Providers through the Draft Specification are moving the compliance and governance frameworks of the hierarchy into alignment with the cultural, legal, financial, operational decision making and communication frameworks of the Joint Operating Committee. Laying the groundwork for the producers involved in the JOC to be successful. McKinsey quote a Harvard Business Review article that reflects these elements are necessary at the commencement of the JOC.

In their seminal article in the Harvard Business Review, Banford, Ernst and Fubini suggest four areas on which to concentrate the early planning and launch of any JV:

1. Strategic alignment. This ensures that each partner’s disparate goals, priorities and business models are recognized and reconciled.
2. A “loose-tight” governance model. This ensures that each partner’s needs for accountability and control are met, while at the same time, the project’s need for independence and authority is also respected.
3. The economic interdependencies between the project JV and each partner. They will impact the extent and means by which human, technical, and other resources are invested in the project.
4. Building the project organization. The parent organization should contribute their best people to the considerable challenges a major project presents, overcoming the frequent perception that such assignments are not always the best path to promotion.

For the industry to successfully provide for the consumers energy demands, it’s necessary to build the systems that identify and support the Joint Operating Committee. Building the Preliminary Specification is the focus of People, Ideas & Objects. Producers are encouraged to contact me in order to support our Revenue Model and begin their participation in these communities. Those individuals that are interested in joining People, Ideas & Objects can join me here and begin building the software necessary for the successful and innovative oil and gas industry.

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McKinsey Ten Technology Trends Part I

McKinsey are once again focusing on the impact that technology will have on organizations. This new article entitled “Clouds, Big Data and Smart Assets: Ten Tech-Enabled Business Trends to Watch” and sub-titled “Advancing technologies and their swift adoption are upending traditional business models. Senior executives need to think strategically about how to prepare their organizations for the challenging new environment.” For the past while I have been closing these blog posts with the comment that management are conflicted and will not make the necessary changes to financially support these developments. Here McKinsey is putting the decision to move to adopt these technologies at the foot of senior executives.

As the worlds premier consulting firm, McKinsey have added substantially to the discussion of applying technology to organizational change.

The ways information technologies are deployed are changing too, as new developments such as virtualization and cloud computing reallocate technology costs and usage patterns while creating new ways for individuals to consume goods and services and for entrepreneurs and enterprises to dream up viable business models.

Again, prospective users of People, Ideas & Objects, and members of the Community of Independent Service Providers will be at the forefront of these major trends.

For senior executives, therefore, merely understanding the ten trends outlined here isn’t enough. They also need to think strategically about how to adapt management and organizational structures to meet these new demands.

1. Distributed co-creation moves into the mainstream.

Recall that we are working to detail “Phase Two” of this project. The purpose of Phase Two is to develop the Preliminary Specification which is proposed to generate a system design consisting of 100 man-years of effort. These developments will be generated from one thousand or more contributors and the entire prospective user community reviewing and influencing the output. A design such as the Preliminary Specification, which of course has not been done before, has also never been possible before.

In the past few years, the ability to organize communities of Web participants to develop, market, and support products and services has moved from the margins of business practice to the mainstream.

Producers need to be a part of this process. Determining the geographical, functional and process scope of the application are part of the Preliminary Specifications deliverable. Ensuring that the specification addresses the producers needs is the responsibility of each producer.

The time for producers to begin their involvement in these communities and developments is now. With the Revenue Model providing significant financial incentives for early participation and the ability to influence the output of these developing communities, delays in a producers participation could be costly.

2. Making the network the organization. 

Using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the innovative oil and gas producer is only possible as a result of the advanced networks and Information Technologies. Networks enable and facilitate the interactions between JOC partners and service providers.

We believe that the more porous, networked organizations of the future will need to organize work around critical tasks rather than molding it to constraints imposed by corporate structures.

Management orthodoxies still prevent most companies from leveraging talent beyond full-time employees who are tied to existing organizational structures. But adhering to these orthodoxies limits a company’s ability to tackle increasingly complex challenges. 

As the research that has been conducted here at People, Ideas & Objects shows, the use of the Joint Operating Committee provides a solution to many of the key issues that the industry faces.

3. Collaboration at scale.

To suggest that the oil and gas industry is already engaged in a high level of collaboration would be an understatement. The Joint Operating Committee by its definition is a collaboration. These interactions have been conducted throughout the industry for many years. What is needed is for the Information Technology systems the industry uses to capture these collaborations and embed them within the ERP systems used in the industry. That is what People, Ideas & Objects is working to provide. By adopting the advanced IT infrastructure and enabling the collaborations to be handled through the technology, the industry will be able to scale their activity and innovations to the level necessary to meet the market demands for energy.

Despite such successes, many companies err in the belief that technology by itself will foster increased collaboration. For technology to be effective, organizations first need a better understanding of how knowledge work actually takes place. A good starting point is to map the informal pathways through which information travels, how employees interact, and where wasteful bottlenecks lie.

A process that is part of the work being proposed to be completed in the Preliminary Specification. Recall as well, that tacit knowledge, the understanding of how things get done, can not be captured. It exists only in the minds of the users, Community of Independent Service Providers and employees of the firms involved in oil and gas. What we can do is design and build the tools that enable the people in the industry to use their tacit knowledge.

4. The growing “Internet of Things”.    

McKinsey highlighted their concept of the Internet of Things a few months ago. These concepts were covered in a blog post that ties McKinsey concept to the People, Ideas & Objects Technical Vision.

5. Experimentation and big data.

Experimentation is the way in which innovation in oil and gas will expand the sciences. One of the keys to exploiting the experimentation and “big data” in the industry is the Joint Operating Committees operational decision making framework. When we align these organizational decision making processes to the systems used by the innovative firms, then we will be able to use these new and valuable tools.

Using experimentation and big data as essential components of management decision making requires new capabilities, as well as organizational and cultural change. Most companies are far from accessing all the available data. Some haven’t even mastered the technologies needed to capture and analyze the valuable information they can access.

We will address the remaining McKinsey technology trends in a future blog post. McKinsey close their paper with the following comment.

The pace of technology and business change will only accelerate, and the impact of the trends above will broaden and deepen. For some organizations, they will unlock significant competitive advantages; for others, dealing with the disruption they bring will be a major challenge. Our broad message is that organizations should incorporate an understanding of the trends into their strategic thinking to help identify new market opportunities, invent new ways of doing business, and compete with an ever-growing number of innovative rivals.

Society is put in peril when world oil production declines. There is evidence that the world's oil production has declined. Therefore the world needs to have the energy industry expand its production. To do so requires that we reorganize to enhance the division of labor and specialization within the industry. As economic development has proven, reorganization would achieve far greater oil and gas production. Management of the industry is conflicted in expanding the output of the industry. The less they do, the higher the oil and gas prices and the better they appear to perform. This managerial conflict must be addressed and the performance of the industry unleashed. To do so requires the current management of the industry to fund People, Ideas & Objects and build the systems as defined in the Draft Specification. Please join me here.

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McKinsey on Global Rebalancing

McKinsey have published an article that I think provides a good understanding of how our economy will be functioning in the near term. Entitled “Globalizations Critical Imbalances” it talks about the necessary adjustments in world trade and their implications. Coming from the point of view of the energy industry, I think this document shows the demand for energy will continue to increase substantially in the near term. Prices will be the means of allocating these finite energy resources and therefore the rewards to the innovative oil and gas producer will be substantial. McKinsey notes.

To some extent, the rebalancing of global economic activity from developed to emerging markets simply reflects economic laws of gravity. In a world where ideas can flow freely and countries are at different stages in adopting modern modes of production, communication, and distribution, less developed nations should grow more rapidly than their counterparts in the West as they catch up.

China, India, Brazil and others are providing substantial increases in the quality of life for their citizens. This naturally imputes greater volumes of energy will be consumed by these countries. Competition for energy resources will be extreme. How much of an increase in consumption and energy pricing is reflected in this next quotation.

The structural issue facing developed-world nations is that the amount of high-quality, high-productivity labor that will be mobilized over the next decade in Brazil, China, and India (not to mention Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand) is likely to be measured in the hundreds of millions of people. By comparison, the entire US labor force comprises 150 million people. This is a wonderful trend for humankind and would be a boon for everyone in the world if emerging-market employment were directed largely toward production for domestic consumption. The challenge for developed-world governments and citizens seeking jobs, however, is that a significant fraction of this emerging-world labor displaces jobs that would otherwise be created in Europe, Japan, and the United States. This may be the underlying reason why unemployment in Europe, Japan, and the United States is becoming more structural rather than cyclical and may get worse over time no matter how much public stimulus is provided. Certainly, the job losses of the Great Recession look quite different from those of past recessions.

We are clearly not out of the woods in terms of the Great Recession. One of the best indicators of the world economies health has been the Baltic Dry Index. The costs to ship dry goods has fluctuated wildly during the last few years. Although the index has stabilized over the past few quarters, it remains substantially below the highs recorded prior to the beginning of the recession. (Note the recent decline in the index has been substantial.) McKinsey notes the difficult situation these global imbalances will cause various governments.

It is very difficult to say how these issues will play out. The global rebalancing that is needed is obvious: developed-world countries need to save more, consume less, become more fiscally disciplined, and run current-account surpluses (or at least be neutral). Emerging-world countries need to let their currencies rise until PPP rates are closer to financial-exchange rates. They need to consume more, save less, run current-account deficits (or at least be neutral), and continue investing, with some of the capital provided by outsiders. If major national governments work proactively together to rebalance and coordinate their fiscal, monetary, trade, and foreign-exchange policies, the adjustment process could be gradual.

The implications of this “rebalancing” may appear dire to those in the developed economies. I think the opportunities will be substantial and the challenges significant. Those that are able to innovate, and particularly the oil and gas producers, will realize many benefits. Realization that we are no longer in the “low cost” era of the energy industries past. Changing from this past mindset to one that can profit from these types of economic forces requires the changes that are contemplated in the Draft Specification.

The underlying global economic processes under way are very powerful, and the profit opportunities will be enormous as four billion people in emerging markets triple or quadruple their incomes and wealth over the next 20 years.

McKinsey are specific on how companies should position themselves for these changes. Oil and gas firms need to adopt these and other recommendations. It is foolhardy to think that these economic challenges and opportunities can be handled by the existing bureaucracies. Innovative oil and gas producers need to begin the process of addressing these opportunities by acquiring the software development capability of People, Ideas & Objects and begin the development of these software applications.

These suggestions represent specific applications of the more dynamic management approach I have urged companies to adopt in the past. The hallmarks of that approach—heightened awareness, greater resilience, more flexibility, and the timely alignment of leadership around needed adjustments—will be invaluable for companies as they navigate the choppy waters of global economic rebalancing. This process will continue and perhaps even accelerate in the years ahead, not despite, but because of the structural adjustments that are needed to put the global economy on a more sustainable trajectory.

Society is put in peril when world oil production declines. There is evidence that the world's oil production has declined. Therefore the world needs to have the energy industry expand its production. To do so requires that we reorganize to enhance the division of labor and specialization within the industry. As has been proven, this reorganization could achieve far greater oil and gas production. Management of the industry is conflicted in expanding the output of the industry. The less they do, the higher the oil and gas prices and the better they appear to perform. This managerial conflict must be addressed and the performance of the industry unleashed. To do so requires the current management of the industry to fund People, Ideas & Objects and build the systems as defined in the Draft Specification. Please join me here.

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McKinsey on Valuing Value

Today we have a short article from McKinsey on valuing value. Entitled "Why value value? -- defending against crisis: Companies, investors and governments must relearn the guiding principles of value creation if they are to defend against future economic crisis." The crisis in the economy is now called a debt crisis and no longer the financial crisis. The financial crisis was a liquidity driven issue and our current debt crisis is a solvency issue. Liquidity can be resolved relatively easily by governments providing cash to the markets, debt crisis' can only be solved with difficult choices and significant hardship one way or another.

An interesting perspective on the current economic situation is provided in this weeks EconTalk podcast by Professor Russ Roberts. Here Professor Roberts breaks down how things became unhinged from an investment point of view. I find the discussion around housing as an investment, Collateral Debt Obligations (CDO's), Synthetics and most of what Wall Street has been involved in as gambling. Nothing is generated out of all these machinations. No new products or services, nothing tangible or worthwhile. It seems to me that Wall Street management have provided leadership to the energy industries management. Leadership in terms of losing sight of what is real.

Discussion of the current economic situation is of importance to the development of People, Ideas & Objects. We can only institute the levels of cultural change within the oil and gas industry through an economic transition that causes the existing bureaucracies to atrophy, and the alternative, as represented in the Draft Specification, is built and grows to replace it. The debt crisis is this mechanism, and we are focused on building value throughout the oil and gas industry.

What I expect will continue to happen is the existing bureaucratic firms will have difficulty in earning "real" income from their operations. Commodity prices are high, and the expectation that they will stay high is supported through the increase in global energy demand and the difficulties in increasing reserves and production. Costs of operations will continue to escalate due to the inability of the bureaucratic culture to build the necessary scientific and engineering capabilities in the time they are required. Throwing more money at the problem will continue to be the only solution that management can provide. The point of making the changes as suggested in People, Ideas & Objects Draft Specification, is to enable the oil and gas producer to focus on generating value. It is the point of generating value that is discussed in this McKinsey paper.

In response to the economic crisis that began in 2007, several serious thinkers have argued that our ideas about market economies must change fundamentally if we are to avoid similar crises in the future. Questioning previously accepted financial theory, they promote a new model, with more explicit regulation governing what companies and investors do, as well as new economic theories. p. 1

One continuous theme that we are finding in our review of Professor Richard Langlois' papers is that markets need "market-supporting" institutions. Leaving the future to unfold as it "should" is consistent with the Lassiez Fairre form of capitalism that brought us here. Now, as represented in the Gulf of Mexico, it could be argued that the inability of BP to shut in the well is a market failure. I would argue that it is a failure of establishing the appropriate market-supporting institutions. I have also argued that software plays a key role in establishing these market-supporting institutions. Software is an enabler or inhibitor to innovation. The current bureaucracies use of SAP has cemented the hierarchies ways and means permanently.

In this next quotation the author intimates that crisis' are created as a result of a miss allocation of capital. This is accurate in the sense that the low costs of money over the past few years has created a lack of discipline in making the right investments. Do we save for the future or buy a bigger house? These types of decisions have been made by consumers and businesses and have led to the situation where everyone is now carrying large debts supported by poorly performing assets. What is the investment capital discipline in the oil and gas industry?

My view, however, is that neither regulation nor new theories will prevent future bubbles or crises. This is because past ones have occurred largely when companies, investors, and governments have forgotten how investments create value, how to measure value properly, or both. The result has been a misunderstanding about which investments are creating real value—a misunderstanding that persists until value-destroying investments have triggered a crisis. p. 1

and

The guiding principle of value creation is that companies create value by using capital they raise from investors to generate future cash flows at rates of return exceeding the cost of capital (the rate investors require as payment). The faster companies can increase their revenues and deploy more capital at attractive rates of return, the more value they create. p. 1

Oil and gas firms have been profitable, many have had record profits. And that would denote they have generated value. However, what about the long term. These record profits have been generated as a result of increased multiples of the commodity prices. These profits have not been effectively invested in expanding reserves or productive capacity. Now that costs are escalating systemically and culturally, as I argue in the review of Professor Langlois, how much longer will value as defined by McKinsey continue to build?

In the Draft Specification, strategy is set by the producer at the Joint Operating Committee level. The producers competitive advantages are structured around their unique asset base and the scientific and engineering capabilities that are made available to them. With these tools the producer firm is able to focus on increasing their reserves and deliverability. Determining the best manufacturing methods to build drill bits do not provide value, and I have suggested that their involvement in owning and operating field level innovations be limited to defining and funding these types of industry capabilities.

Companies can sustain strong growth and high returns on invested capital only if they have a well-defined competitive advantage. This is how competitive advantage, the core concept of business strategy, links to the guiding principle of value creation. p. 2

The oil and gas industry stands at a unique time and place. We recently learned through our review of Professor Alfred D. Chandler that bureaucracies essentially failed during the great depression. We see hierarchies in the global banking system have also failed. Do we need to wait until it is evident to everyone that the energy industries management are failing? High commodity prices have made these companies look like they are functioning properly. However, the excess cash flow has not increased their reserves or production? Knowing what we know about the duration of the commodity price spike, and the logarithmic decline curve, what is the future deliverability of these companies. Understanding the role that energy plays in our lives we need to act before the failures become too obvious.

These principles have stood the test of time. Economist Alfred Marshall spoke about the return on capital relative to the cost of capital in 1890. When managers, boards of directors, and investors have forgotten these simple truths, the consequences have been disastrous. The rise and fall of business conglomerates in the 1970s, hostile takeovers in the United States during the 1980s, the collapse of Japan’s bubble economy in the 1990s, the Southeast Asian crisis in 1998, the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s, and the economic crisis starting in 2007 can all, to some extent, be traced to a misunderstanding or misapplication of these principles. Using them to create value requires an understanding of both the economics of value creation (for instance, how competitive advantage enables some companies to earn higher ROIC than others) and the process of measuring value (for example, how to calculate ROIC from a company’s accounting statements). p. 2

Our appeal should be based on these eight "Focused on" priorities and values of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not initially be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are. If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.

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McKinsey on the economy.

Yesterday we saw the markets respond negatively to the debt situation in Europe. This has had an adverse effect on the global markets with many reflecting a flight to quality. It appears to me that the effects of the various government stimulus initiatives have enabled economies to avoid the crisis from becoming to great. However, there are  those unsustainable levels of debt that are carried by most countries. This situation appears to be ignored by many administrations, including the U.S., and the need to address them seems to be the priority being asserted by investors. Loaning money out at low interest rates may be at an end. Markets will continue to reflect these concerns until such time as Professor Carlota Perez “Deployment” period is fully installed.  

McKinsey have published their Global Survey results which clearly reflect the concern for debt is substantial.   

Executives in Europe and North America are haunted by the perception of crippling public debt levels: 54 and 61 percent, respectively, think that public-debt levels will have a “significant” or “severely negative” impact on GDP growth in their home markets. In contrast, 45 percent of respondents in China and 24 percent in India expect that the level of public debt will have a “positive” impact or “no impact” in their home markets.

Volatility remains high and this is reflected in yesterday’s U.S. stock exchange drop of 1,000 points, suggesting that buyers were few and far between. This volatility, unlike in 2008, will not lead to the types of economic impact that we have just recovered from. However, with large debts and the potential for higher interest rates, the long term flexibility of countries, companies and individuals is more constrained. Looking at oil and gas companies balance sheets, and understanding that these were mostly financed in short term markets, higher interest charges may constrain their capital expenditure programs. Issuing debt on longer terms will have this effect even if there is no change in market rates.

McKinsey note two positive trends that may be developing. For many decades, short term concerns drove the agenda of most companies.

Companies are shifting their strategic planning from crisis mode to a more balanced consideration of short-term profitability and long-term strategic issues: one-third now focus equally on the short and long terms, compared with one-fifth in 2009.

Information Technology being a key variable in increasing firms competitive advantage. This reflecting a timeliness of People, Ideas & Objects and associated communities. 

Technology will continue to materially reshape consumer awareness, choice, and interactivity models, and companies should be striving to tap the power of technology to improve their competitive advantage.

Let’s hope these trends continue. Our appeal should be based on these eight "Focused on" priorities and values of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not initially be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are. If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.


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McKinsey Conversation with Andrew Gould

Just a quick post today to highlight a McKinsey "conversation with global leaders" Mr. Andrew Gould CEO of oil field supply firm Schlumberger. Of particular interest to me was his discussion of his Research & Development efforts. (Note his M & A groups appear to be part of his R & D.)

We’ve had a separate M&A group. And the M&A group has two functions. The first is normal M&A. But the second is it has a group of technologists within it who just spend their time identifying and following up on small companies. And actually, we have, for the last four or five years, been making step investments into technologies that we think are interesting.

Interesting from the point of view that the head of the largest oil field supply firm is actively acquiring technology groups. This signals to me that the movement to a more innovative footing across the industry is beginning to develop. Add to that this next quotation regarding the complexity shows the opportunity for Schlumberger is clearly identified.

I think that projects are going to get bigger and they’re going to get more complex. They also, to a certain extent, are becoming more remote. In other words, when you see people starting to drill offshore in Greenland, or offshore in New Zealand for that matter, then the remoteness and the logistical complexity and cost of those projects are such that I think the traditional model of procuring each individual service from different vendors and then doing all the integration oneself is going to diminish.

The point of course is that the opportunity for firms, groups and communities of all types in oil and gas are as strong as they ever have been. I have talked about the performance of Agile / Scrum software development teams. As Agile developers we expect to develop software at approximately 500% of the traditional software development methodologies. Schlumberger is experiencing similar performance metrics.

So in China, funnily enough, at the moment our big research-and-development investment is in software. We decided we were too late to go to India. So we built a lab, which is on the campus of Tsinghua University in Beijing. So we basically hire from the two universities, Beijing and Tsinghua. And it’s now at 350 people. The average age is probably about 30. And the creativity and the productivity, the level of productivity, of that lab is incredible. It’s scary. It really is scary.

I mean, we took a program from the US, which was going really badly, and gave it to Beijing. And Beijing’s first reaction was, “You’re trying to kill us, huh? You’re trying to kill this lab.” Then they buckled down and they did it. I mean, it was extraordinary.

and

And I’m afraid it’s something that the West has, you know, not lost, but we better wake up.

Our appeal should be based on these eight "Focused on" priorities and values of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not initially be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are. If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.

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Focused on the Energy Business

The purpose of this post is to highlight the differences between the systems that People, Ideas & Objects proposes to provide in the Draft Specification, and what management are providing the producer firms today. With this being the end of our 2010 budget drive, the contrast is surprising.

Within the Draft Specification we set out to build an application that deals with the issues that the innovative oil and gas producer is facing. Keeping up with the demands in the earth science and engineering disciplines. Basing the system on the Joint Operating Committee and designed to facilitate a greater level of speed and innovativeness within all producers. Providing the producer with the most profitable means of operations.

Today, I stumbled upon this McKinsey article that documents the state of affairs in Royal Dutch Shell. The interview is with Mr. Alan Matula, Executive Vice-President and CIO. I think it is best to read the article first, and then watch the video below to try and get a feel for what Mr. Matula is talking about.



What planet is Mr. Matula from? Is he serious? And if so, what industry is he in? My god, I can't believe that Shell would even hire this guy, unless of course, they all speak that way!

If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.

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McKinsey Three Executives on Strategi...

McKinsey have an article entitled "How we do it: Three executives reflect on strategic decision making." Two of the executives, Randy Komisar of Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and Anne Mulcahy, Chairman of Xerox make comments that are pertinent to the work we are doing here at People, Ideas & Objects. I highly recommend downloading the entire document and reviewing it. It has several points and ideas that should be added to your decision making tool kit.

McKinsey continues on with their discussion around the theme of behavioral strategy. Mr. Kosimar raises an interesting point in making decisions.

What makes this culturally difficult in larger companies is that there is often a sense that Plan A is going to succeed. It’s well analyzed. It’s vetted. It’s crisp. It looks great on an Excel spreadsheet. It becomes the plan of record to which everybody executes. And the execution of that plan does not usually contemplate testing assumptions on an ongoing basis to permit a course correction. So if the plan is wrong, which it most often is, then it is a total failure. The work has gone on too long. Too much money has been spent. Too many people have invested their time and attention on it. And careers can be hurt in the process. To create the right culture, you have to make very clear that a wrong answer is not “failure” unless it is ignored or uncorrectable.

The Draft Specification is most definitely Plan A. Plan B is the Preliminary Specification and each of our last months blog posts have concluded with the following comment. "Our appeal should be based on the 30 compelling reasons of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are." Which goes directly to "create the right culture" for success for those involved in People, Ideas & Objects.

Anne Mulcahy has guided Xerox from bankruptcy in 2001 to the firm that it is today, a success story. She reflects on her leadership throughout this period. And provides us with an understanding that few can articulate and most can appreciate.

This was the first of many lessons about how to ensure high-quality decision making that Mulcahy would go on to learn during her nine years as CEO. In a recent interview with McKinsey’s Rik Kirkland, she distilled five suggestions for other senior leaders.

I'll leave it to the readers review of the document to reflect on the five suggestions. Applying these suggestions to the work at People, Ideas & Objects provides substantial value and that is reflected in the following quotations of Ms. Mulcahy.

Decisiveness is about timeliness. And timeliness trumps perfection. The most damaging decisions are the missed opportunities, the decisions that didn’t get made in time. If you’re creating a category of bad decisions you’ve made, you need to include with it all the decisions you didn’t get to make because you missed the window of time that existed to take advantage of an opportunity.

I hope that industry adopts People, Ideas & Objects Draft Specification. It's timeliness is reflected in the way that it resonates with the issues and opportunities in the oil and gas industry today. To take this opportunity, that took five years in the making, and the behavioral strategy that we have adopted in getting this solution right, right for the producers and right for the users of the applications, "trumps perfection", and the remorse "because you missed the window of time that existed to take advantage of an opportunity".

Proceeding with People, Ideas & Objects is risky, and as the previous quote reflects, not making the correct decision in the right time frame creates its own risks.

These days, everyone is risk averse. Unfortunately, people define risk as something you avoid rather than something you take. But taking risks is critical to your decision-making effectiveness and growth, and most companies have taken a large step backwards because of the current climate. I was CEO of Xerox for five years before we really got back into the acquisition market, even though we knew we needed to acquire some things rather than develop them internally. But we got very conservative, very risk averse, and also too data driven. By the time we would reach a decision that some technology was going to be a home run, it had either already been bought or was so expensive we couldn’t afford it.

The oil and gas industry has changed. Since 2005 our global productive capacity has stalled. Prices reflect this reality, and prices are re-allocating the financial resources to the most innovative producer. With this fundamental change in the business, we need to define and build the systems that define and support the innovative producer. That is the Draft Specification and the process of finding the right solution with People, Ideas & Objects.

Decisions have shelf lives, so you really need to put tight time-frames on your process. I would so much rather live with the outcome of making a few bad decisions than miss a boatload of good ones. Some of it flies in the face of good process and just requires good gut. So when trying to take bias out of decision making, you need to be really cautious not to take instinct, courage, and gut out as well.

March 31, 2010 is the deadline for raising our 2010 operating budget. After which a variety of consequences, such as financial penalties and a loss of one years time will occur. Our appeal should be based on the 30 compelling reasons of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are.

If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.

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McKinsey Behavioral Strategy

McKinsey have published an interesting document that analyzes the ways and means that organizations make decisions. This is particularly relevant to the work at People, Ideas & Objects as we are first of all, asking the investment community to fund these developments, and secondly setting up how users will be able to build the systems that they want. Both requiring what McKinsey calls "bet the company" type of decisions.

The larger point that the document asks and suggests, is what are the best ways for companies to make decisions? Noting a series of biases that are part of behavioral psychology, McKinsey documents that process is the most important element in making decisions. No news here as People, Ideas & Objects is user based developments where the users, using only the Draft Specification, determine their best ways to proceed. The only other constraint that is placed upon the user community, and particularly the Community of Independent Service Providers, is that they fulfill the objective of provide the innovative producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations.

I would highly recommend to the user communities they read the McKinsey document. This is the type of value that can be added to People, Ideas & Objects, and hence the greater oil and gas community through user research into the best ways and means of proceeding with this important and quite exciting task.

March 31, 2010 is the deadline for raising our 2010 operating budget. After which a variety of consequences, such as financial penalties and a loss of one years time will occur. Our appeal should be based on the 30 compelling reasons of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are.

If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.

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McKinsey on User Participation

McKinsey & Company publish a blog entitled "Perspectives on Business Technology".

This site is published by the Business Technology Office of McKinsey & Company. It offers perspectives and points of view on topical business technology issues of interest to executives. Opinions are those of the authors and are not drawn from confidential client information.

They recently ran a short series of posts on 'user participation', a topic that is of keen interest to People, Ideas & Objects. We are focused on the user of the software defined in the Draft Specification. User driven software developments have proven themselves superior to the point where I believe it would be redundant to attempt to bring a solution to the market without the establishment of an active user community. The user community and the Community of Independent Service Providers are critical to the quality of People, Ideas & Objects.

McKinsey discuss the current state of user participation in this four post series. These posts can be found here, here, here and here. The process necessary to become a member of the user or CISP communities requires a little work on behalf of each individual. I feel it is important that once in the community the people are able to actively participate and contribute. The application process enables this through the development of the users own ideas and areas of interest. Once these are reflected in their summaries they will be posted in the wiki for all members of the communities to search and discover like minded people. Then the real fun can begin.

McKinsey note that there has to be a trade off. In their conclusion they note the balance required for high-quality participation should involve some effort.

Our recent observations suggest that participation is here to stay, but stimulating continued high-quality participation is complex. It requires a subtle balance of rewards and effort, a thoughtful segmentation of participants and a comprehension of the social structures of participation.

I think that we have been able to strike that balance with the expectations noted in the process to join People, Ideas & Objects. And that does not suggest that the process as it stand won't change. McKinsey note this is somewhat of a black art and we will try hard to find the right balance as we proceed.

These competencies are not easy to grasp, which explains the persistence of power curves of participation, and why only a small number of companies have been able to truly pull it off. But recent data also shows that mastering the art of enabling participation can deliver a major payoff.

March 31, 2010 is the deadline for raising our 2010 operating budget. After which a variety of consequences, such as financial penalties and a loss of one years time will occur. Our appeal should be based on the 26 compelling reasons of how better the oil and gas industry and its operations could be handled. They may not be the right way to go, but we are committed to working with the various communities to discover and ensure the right ones are.

If your an enlightened producer, an oil and gas director, investor or shareholder, who would be interested in funding these software developments and communities, please follow our Funding Policies & Procedures, and our Hardware Policies & Procedures. If your a government that collects royalties from oil and gas producers, and are concerned about the accuracy of your royalty income, please review our Royalty Policies & Procedures and email me. And if your a potential user of this software, and possibly as a member of the Community of Independent Service Providers, please join us here.

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